Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 49 | 0.92 | 0.43 | 25.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 49 | 1.16 | -0.35 | 25.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 49 | 1.16 | -0.39 | 25.0 |
| Columbus OH | 48 | 1.23 | 0.56 | 24.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 49 | 1.24 | 0.39 | 25.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 49 | 1.37 | -0.43 | 25.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 48 | 1.44 | 0.35 | 24.5 |
| Jackson MS | 49 | 1.47 | -0.16 | 25.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 49 | 1.53 | 0.59 | 25.0 |
| Nashville TN | 48 | 1.69 | 0.06 | 24.5 |
| Juneau AK | 49 | 1.76 | 1.39 | 25.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 48 | 1.77 | 0.77 | 24.5 |
| Richmond VA | 48 | 1.81 | 1.35 | 24.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 49 | 1.88 | 0.20 | 25.0 |
| Lansing MI | 49 | 1.92 | 1.39 | 25.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 49 | 1.96 | 1.02 | 25.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 48 | 1.96 | 0.33 | 24.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 49 | 2.00 | 0.45 | 25.0 |
| Salem OR | 48 | 2.00 | 1.38 | 24.5 |
| Madison WI | 48 | 2.00 | 1.13 | 24.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 49 | 2.02 | 0.63 | 25.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 49 | 2.06 | 0.67 | 25.0 |
| Topeka KS | 49 | 2.14 | 2.10 | 25.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 49 | 2.27 | -1.08 | 25.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 49 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 25.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 49 | 2.43 | -2.10 | 25.0 |
| Springfield IL | 49 | 2.45 | 2.04 | 25.0 |
| Dover DE | 49 | 2.47 | 0.10 | 25.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 49 | 2.47 | 1.98 | 25.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 48 | 2.50 | 0.46 | 24.5 |
| Pierre SD | 48 | 2.60 | 2.56 | 24.5 |
| Boise ID | 49 | 2.88 | 2.22 | 25.0 |
| Helena MT | 49 | 3.04 | 1.78 | 25.0 |
| Charleston WV | 48 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 24.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 49 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 25.0 |
| Denver CO | 49 | 3.24 | 2.76 | 25.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 49 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 25.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 49 | 3.27 | -1.31 | 25.0 |
| Olympia WA | 48 | 3.35 | -0.98 | 24.5 |
| Hartford CT | 49 | 3.59 | 2.29 | 25.0 |
| Columbia SC | 48 | 3.63 | -3.63 | 24.5 |
| Augusta ME | 49 | 3.71 | 1.84 | 25.0 |
| Austin TX | 48 | 3.94 | 3.90 | 24.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 49 | 3.98 | 2.59 | 25.0 |
| Carson City NV | 49 | 4.37 | 3.84 | 25.0 |
| Providence RI | 48 | 4.46 | 4.38 | 24.5 |
| Boston MA | 49 | 4.69 | 4.49 | 25.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 48 | 5.13 | 2.92 | 24.5 |
| Concord NH | 49 | 5.14 | 4.29 | 25.0 |
| Albany NY | 49 | 5.80 | 4.24 | 25.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 64.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |