Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 167 | 1.26 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 167 | 1.29 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 167 | 1.92 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 167 | 1.95 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 167 | 2.05 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 167 | 2.09 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 167 | 2.10 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 167 | 2.16 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 167 | 2.17 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 167 | 2.17 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 167 | 2.20 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 167 | 2.24 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 167 | 2.25 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 167 | 2.27 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 167 | 2.28 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 167 | 2.31 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 167 | 2.31 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 167 | 2.43 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 167 | 2.46 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 167 | 2.49 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 167 | 2.54 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 167 | 2.55 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 167 | 2.56 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 167 | 2.58 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 167 | 2.59 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 167 | 2.61 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 167 | 2.62 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 167 | 2.74 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 167 | 2.77 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 167 | 2.78 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 167 | 2.82 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 167 | 2.85 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 167 | 2.90 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 167 | 2.91 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 167 | 2.92 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 167 | 2.92 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 167 | 2.93 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 167 | 2.97 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 167 | 3.02 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 167 | 3.03 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 167 | 3.10 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 167 | 3.14 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 167 | 3.16 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 167 | 3.16 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 167 | 3.20 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 167 | 3.25 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 167 | 3.29 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 167 | 3.32 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 167 | 3.55 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 167 | 3.78 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 17:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 MST | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Dover DE | 46.0°F | 53.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 MST | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Springfield IL | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Topeka KS | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Lansing MI | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Jackson MS | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 MST | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 PST | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Albany NY | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Columbus OH | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 PST | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 21:00 EST | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |