Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.25 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.85 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.89 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 1.95 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.07 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.14 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.27 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.36 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.46 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.47 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.47 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.52 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.57 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.58 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.59 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.60 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.63 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.65 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.66 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.75 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.76 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.89 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.92 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.93 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.96 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.98 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 3.01 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.03 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 3.07 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.11 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.12 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.14 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.14 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.18 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 3.20 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.22 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 3.29 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.40 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 3.51 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.54 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 3.55 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 3.72 | 3.21 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.80 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 4.02 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 4.11 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 4.11 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 4.51 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 5.02 | 4.79 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 5.29 | 4.67 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 6.10 | 4.12 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 48.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 59.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 84.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |