Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.33 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 1.84 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.85 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.88 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 1.89 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.15 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.34 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.35 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.42 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.43 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.46 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.47 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.52 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.56 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.59 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.61 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.61 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.63 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.65 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.67 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.69 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.70 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.74 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.74 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.78 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.85 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.96 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.97 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.01 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 3.06 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.17 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 3.19 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.23 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 3.23 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.26 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.28 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.28 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.29 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.58 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.59 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.63 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 3.65 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.83 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 3.86 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.95 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 4.08 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 4.12 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 4.25 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 4.66 | 4.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 5.91 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 74.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 53.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |