Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 144 | 1.20 | 0.16 | 40.2 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 144 | 1.31 | 0.38 | 40.2 |
| Little Rock AR | 144 | 1.67 | -0.64 | 40.2 |
| Raleigh NC | 144 | 1.67 | 0.24 | 40.2 |
| Honolulu HI | 144 | 1.70 | -0.69 | 40.2 |
| Sacramento CA | 144 | 1.75 | -0.15 | 40.2 |
| Indianapolis IN | 144 | 1.85 | -0.03 | 40.2 |
| Juneau AK | 144 | 1.88 | -0.09 | 40.2 |
| Madison WI | 143 | 1.92 | 0.73 | 40.1 |
| Jefferson City MO | 144 | 1.95 | 0.77 | 40.2 |
| Tallahassee FL | 144 | 2.03 | 0.47 | 40.2 |
| Frankfort KY | 144 | 2.03 | 1.01 | 40.2 |
| Des Moines IA | 144 | 2.06 | 1.33 | 40.2 |
| Columbus OH | 143 | 2.07 | 1.52 | 40.1 |
| Cheyenne WY | 143 | 2.13 | 0.83 | 40.1 |
| Montgomery AL | 144 | 2.24 | 0.01 | 40.2 |
| Annapolis MD | 144 | 2.24 | 1.00 | 40.2 |
| Saint Paul MN | 144 | 2.28 | 2.00 | 40.2 |
| Salem OR | 143 | 2.36 | 1.82 | 40.1 |
| Atlanta GA | 144 | 2.37 | 0.12 | 40.2 |
| Springfield IL | 144 | 2.38 | 2.03 | 40.2 |
| Nashville TN | 143 | 2.42 | 0.17 | 40.1 |
| Austin TX | 143 | 2.43 | 1.26 | 40.1 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 143 | 2.49 | -0.60 | 40.1 |
| Richmond VA | 143 | 2.52 | 1.79 | 40.1 |
| Charleston WV | 143 | 2.60 | 1.68 | 40.1 |
| Trenton NJ | 144 | 2.65 | 2.25 | 40.2 |
| Bismarck ND | 144 | 2.72 | 2.22 | 40.2 |
| Carson City NV | 144 | 2.75 | 0.85 | 40.2 |
| Topeka KS | 144 | 2.78 | 2.65 | 40.2 |
| Denver CO | 144 | 2.81 | 2.21 | 40.2 |
| Lansing MI | 144 | 2.86 | 2.40 | 40.2 |
| Hartford CT | 144 | 2.96 | 1.94 | 40.2 |
| Olympia WA | 143 | 2.99 | 1.09 | 40.1 |
| Harrisburg PA | 143 | 3.07 | 2.52 | 40.1 |
| Boise ID | 144 | 3.10 | 1.90 | 40.2 |
| Columbia SC | 143 | 3.12 | -2.76 | 40.1 |
| Providence RI | 143 | 3.13 | 2.57 | 40.1 |
| Santa Fe NM | 144 | 3.19 | -1.10 | 40.2 |
| Dover DE | 144 | 3.22 | 1.07 | 40.2 |
| Boston MA | 144 | 3.43 | 2.49 | 40.2 |
| Augusta ME | 144 | 3.47 | 1.70 | 40.2 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 143 | 3.60 | 2.90 | 40.1 |
| Helena MT | 144 | 3.62 | 2.92 | 40.2 |
| Lincoln NE | 144 | 3.64 | 3.58 | 40.2 |
| Pierre SD | 143 | 3.66 | 3.56 | 40.1 |
| Phoenix AZ | 144 | 3.83 | 1.76 | 40.2 |
| Albany NY | 144 | 3.97 | 3.33 | 40.2 |
| Concord NH | 144 | 4.12 | 3.16 | 40.2 |
| Montpelier VT | 143 | 4.41 | 1.99 | 40.1 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 96.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |