Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.29 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.46 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.72 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 1.87 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.91 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 1.92 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 1.96 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.97 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.13 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.24 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.27 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.29 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.32 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.33 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.34 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.36 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.36 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.39 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.39 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.40 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.40 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.43 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.46 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.48 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.50 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.54 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.54 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.54 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.55 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.61 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.68 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.70 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.73 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.80 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.84 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.94 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.98 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.98 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.02 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.06 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 3.10 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.15 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.17 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.27 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.33 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.55 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.66 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.73 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 4.33 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 4.55 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 88.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 59.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 67.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 61.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |