Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.33 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.36 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.48 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.68 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.83 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 1.99 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.02 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.08 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.11 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.17 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.17 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.20 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.21 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.31 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.31 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.32 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.34 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.37 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.39 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.40 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.44 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.45 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.46 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.48 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.49 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.61 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.64 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.65 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.68 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.74 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.76 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.77 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.86 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 3.01 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.02 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 3.04 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 3.07 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 3.09 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.13 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 3.24 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.30 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.32 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.50 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.56 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.56 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 3.62 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 3.90 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.93 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 4.02 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 4.07 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 35.0°F | 27.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 39.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 27.0°F | 23.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 28.0°F | 41.0°F | -13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 36.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |