Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
14233
683232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.60°
8550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-26 02:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Augusta ME 171 1.73 -0.26 48.0
Honolulu HI 171 1.74 -1.26 48.0
Providence RI 171 1.74 0.24 48.0
Austin TX 171 1.76 0.99 48.0
Little Rock AR 171 1.80 -0.18 48.0
Charleston WV 171 1.81 -0.62 48.0
Hartford CT 171 1.84 0.06 48.0
Trenton NJ 171 1.84 0.15 48.0
Jackson MS 171 1.90 1.21 48.0
Albany NY 171 1.93 0.62 48.0
Columbus OH 171 1.95 1.05 48.0
Tallahassee FL 171 2.01 0.31 48.0
Atlanta GA 171 2.01 0.61 48.0
Indianapolis IN 171 2.05 0.21 48.0
Concord NH 171 2.10 0.35 48.0
Dover DE 171 2.22 0.45 48.0
Harrisburg PA 171 2.22 0.14 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 171 2.25 1.75 48.0
Lansing MI 171 2.32 1.42 48.0
Boston MA 171 2.40 1.08 48.0
Jefferson City MO 171 2.49 1.25 48.0
Richmond VA 171 2.52 0.59 48.0
Annapolis MD 171 2.54 1.12 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 171 2.55 -1.65 48.0
Helena MT 171 2.57 1.56 48.0
Nashville TN 171 2.58 0.47 48.0
Juneau AK 171 2.63 0.39 48.0
Montgomery AL 171 2.68 1.18 48.0
Raleigh NC 171 2.68 0.80 48.0
Topeka KS 171 2.75 1.60 48.0
Montpelier VT 171 2.87 0.84 48.0
Carson City NV 171 2.88 0.40 48.0
Frankfort KY 171 2.90 2.02 48.0
Saint Paul MN 171 2.90 2.48 48.0
Columbia SC 171 2.95 -2.19 48.0
Des Moines IA 171 2.97 1.99 48.0
Santa Fe NM 171 2.98 -0.87 48.0
Madison WI 171 2.98 2.36 48.0
Springfield IL 171 3.02 2.89 48.0
Sacramento CA 171 3.05 0.42 48.0
Salem OR 171 3.09 1.16 48.0
Cheyenne WY 171 3.09 0.02 48.0
Olympia WA 171 3.22 -1.15 48.0
Boise ID 171 3.26 2.72 48.0
Phoenix AZ 171 3.35 -0.78 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 171 3.40 2.95 48.0
Bismarck ND 171 3.49 2.88 48.0
Lincoln NE 171 3.51 2.39 48.0
Denver CO 171 3.55 1.04 48.0
Pierre SD 171 5.06 4.26 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Montgomery AL 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 AKDT Juneau AK 64.0°F 71.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 MST Phoenix AZ 111.0°F 101.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Little Rock AR 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 PDT Sacramento CA 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 20:00 MDT Denver CO 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Hartford CT 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 16:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 20:00 MDT Boise ID 95.0°F 99.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Springfield IL 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Des Moines IA 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Topeka KS 85.0°F 90.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Frankfort KY 76.0°F 70.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Augusta ME 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Annapolis MD 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Lansing MI 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Jackson MS 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 20:00 MDT Helena MT 88.0°F 91.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Lincoln NE 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 PDT Carson City NV 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Concord NH 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 20:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Albany NY 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Bismarck ND 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Columbus OH 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 PDT Salem OR 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 EDT Columbia SC 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0