Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.58 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.71 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.72 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 1.83 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.88 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 1.88 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 1.94 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 1.99 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.08 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.10 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.13 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.18 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.21 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.26 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.27 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.30 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.31 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.31 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.32 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.33 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.39 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.40 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.43 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.49 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.53 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.54 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.58 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.64 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.65 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.68 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.71 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.74 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.74 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.78 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.78 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.78 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.79 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.79 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.87 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.89 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.01 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.06 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.07 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 3.31 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 3.33 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.33 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.40 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.50 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.68 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 4.20 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 MST | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Dover DE | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 MST | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 MST | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 PST | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 38.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 PST | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 EST | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |