Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.17 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.22 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 1.42 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 1.58 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.74 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 1.78 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.87 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.90 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 1.91 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.01 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.15 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.16 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.18 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.22 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.26 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.39 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.41 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.43 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.44 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.49 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.57 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.57 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.63 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.63 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.67 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.68 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.68 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 2.68 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.72 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.72 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.77 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.79 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.81 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.81 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.85 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.86 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.90 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 3.03 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.11 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.18 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.18 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.18 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.20 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 3.22 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.28 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.39 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.40 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 3.86 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 4.26 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 4.43 | -3.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 98.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |