Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.35 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.56 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 1.84 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.86 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.89 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 1.89 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.90 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 1.96 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.01 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.12 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.15 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.15 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.16 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.18 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.22 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.25 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.26 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.26 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.33 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.35 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.35 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.40 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.46 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.52 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.54 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.55 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.55 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.65 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.66 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.66 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.68 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.69 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.71 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.90 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.91 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.92 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.98 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.99 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 3.03 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 3.13 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 3.14 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.15 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.18 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.18 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.23 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.59 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.73 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.78 | 3.40 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 4.02 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 4.16 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |