Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
2583
124032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
2534 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-16 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 51 0.92 0.37 25.9
Annapolis MD 51 1.16 -0.33 25.9
Raleigh NC 51 1.18 -0.43 25.9
Columbus OH 50 1.24 0.60 25.4
Jefferson City MO 51 1.25 0.31 25.9
Tallahassee FL 51 1.37 -0.47 25.9
Jackson MS 51 1.43 -0.18 25.9
Cheyenne WY 50 1.44 0.28 25.4
Honolulu HI 51 1.49 0.59 25.9
Nashville TN 50 1.68 0.00 25.4
Harrisburg PA 50 1.74 0.70 25.4
Juneau AK 51 1.75 1.39 25.9
Richmond VA 50 1.80 1.36 25.4
Montgomery AL 51 1.88 0.12 25.9
Lansing MI 51 1.88 1.29 25.9
Indianapolis IN 51 1.92 1.02 25.9
Madison WI 50 1.92 1.08 25.4
Little Rock AR 51 1.96 0.59 25.9
Salem OR 50 1.96 1.36 25.4
Des Moines IA 51 1.98 0.65 25.9
Salt Lake City UT 50 2.00 0.20 25.4
Frankfort KY 51 2.04 0.31 25.9
Topeka KS 51 2.10 2.06 25.9
Sacramento CA 51 2.20 -1.02 25.9
Bismarck ND 51 2.31 2.31 25.9
Trenton NJ 51 2.41 1.86 25.9
Dover DE 51 2.43 0.04 25.9
Springfield IL 51 2.43 2.04 25.9
Atlanta GA 51 2.47 -2.16 25.9
Oklahoma City OK 50 2.62 0.66 25.4
Pierre SD 50 2.64 2.60 25.4
Boise ID 51 2.82 2.08 25.9
Helena MT 51 2.96 1.67 25.9
Charleston WV 50 2.98 2.98 25.4
Denver CO 51 3.12 2.65 25.9
Saint Paul MN 51 3.18 2.98 25.9
Santa Fe NM 51 3.20 -1.24 25.9
Olympia WA 50 3.24 -0.92 25.4
Lincoln NE 51 3.35 3.35 25.9
Hartford CT 51 3.63 2.37 25.9
Columbia SC 50 3.64 -3.64 25.4
Augusta ME 51 3.71 1.63 25.9
Austin TX 50 3.82 3.70 25.4
Phoenix AZ 51 3.92 2.59 25.9
Providence RI 50 4.30 4.22 25.4
Carson City NV 51 4.41 3.90 25.9
Boston MA 51 4.61 4.41 25.9
Montpelier VT 50 5.16 2.56 25.4
Concord NH 51 5.27 4.45 25.9
Albany NY 51 5.63 4.14 25.9

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 03:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 72.0°F 67.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Dover DE 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-15 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 03:00 MDT Boise ID 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 03:00 MDT Helena MT 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 73.0°F 67.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 66.0°F 61.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 56.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0