Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
26083
1252032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.50°
9600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-04 23:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 192 1.58 -0.52 48.0
Honolulu HI 192 1.64 -1.33 48.0
Nashville TN 192 1.85 0.04 48.0
Lansing MI 192 1.88 0.33 48.0
Salem OR 192 1.95 1.11 48.0
Little Rock AR 192 1.97 -0.35 48.0
Raleigh NC 192 2.06 -0.53 48.0
Charleston WV 192 2.07 1.26 48.0
Columbus OH 192 2.08 -0.17 48.0
Trenton NJ 192 2.13 -0.99 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 192 2.14 1.56 48.0
Jefferson City MO 192 2.14 1.27 48.0
Sacramento CA 192 2.23 1.73 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 192 2.23 0.99 48.0
Dover DE 192 2.25 -0.94 48.0
Austin TX 192 2.26 2.09 48.0
Providence RI 192 2.28 -0.63 48.0
Boston MA 192 2.30 -0.07 48.0
Annapolis MD 192 2.31 0.50 48.0
Saint Paul MN 192 2.32 0.13 48.0
Topeka KS 192 2.34 1.27 48.0
Augusta ME 192 2.35 -1.50 48.0
Jackson MS 192 2.36 1.24 48.0
Indianapolis IN 192 2.38 0.06 48.0
Juneau AK 192 2.41 0.80 48.0
Harrisburg PA 192 2.43 -0.42 48.0
Montpelier VT 192 2.49 0.99 48.0
Frankfort KY 192 2.50 1.83 48.0
Atlanta GA 192 2.54 0.70 48.0
Springfield IL 192 2.56 1.92 48.0
Carson City NV 192 2.56 1.85 48.0
Helena MT 192 2.58 0.35 48.0
Madison WI 192 2.69 1.11 48.0
Columbia SC 192 2.77 0.24 48.0
Hartford CT 192 2.78 -1.63 48.0
Boise ID 192 2.79 -0.15 48.0
Des Moines IA 192 2.81 0.26 48.0
Phoenix AZ 192 2.84 -0.97 48.0
Albany NY 192 2.85 -0.42 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 192 2.85 1.68 48.0
Montgomery AL 192 2.88 -0.79 48.0
Tallahassee FL 192 2.96 0.22 48.0
Olympia WA 192 2.97 -0.31 48.0
Cheyenne WY 192 3.15 0.68 48.0
Pierre SD 192 3.16 1.83 48.0
Lincoln NE 192 3.17 2.34 48.0
Santa Fe NM 192 3.21 -1.20 48.0
Bismarck ND 192 3.22 0.72 48.0
Concord NH 192 3.40 -2.15 48.0
Denver CO 192 3.46 1.90 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Montgomery AL 87.0°F 81.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 15:00 AKDT Juneau AK 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 16:00 MST Phoenix AZ 108.0°F 105.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Little Rock AR 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 16:00 PDT Sacramento CA 100.0°F 96.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 17:00 MDT Denver CO 81.0°F 73.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Dover DE 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 17:00 MDT Boise ID 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Springfield IL 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Des Moines IA 83.0°F 69.0°F +14.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Topeka KS 90.0°F 86.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Frankfort KY 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Augusta ME 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Annapolis MD 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Boston MA 78.0°F 86.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Lansing MI 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Jackson MS 92.0°F 92.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 17:00 MDT Helena MT 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Lincoln NE 84.0°F 70.0°F +14.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 16:00 PDT Carson City NV 98.0°F 97.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Concord NH 79.0°F 84.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Trenton NJ 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 17:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 83.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Raleigh NC 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Bismarck ND 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Columbus OH 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 18:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 100.0°F 101.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 16:00 PDT Salem OR 96.0°F 91.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Providence RI 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 19:00 EDT Columbia SC 83.0°F 88.0°F -5.0° 48.0