Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.32 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.48 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 168 | 1.52 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 168 | 1.90 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 1.96 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 168 | 1.97 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.98 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.00 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 168 | 2.09 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.12 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 168 | 2.14 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.15 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 168 | 2.15 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 168 | 2.18 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 168 | 2.18 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.22 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.25 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.31 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 168 | 2.31 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 168 | 2.33 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.34 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 168 | 2.34 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 168 | 2.34 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.37 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.38 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 168 | 2.40 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 168 | 2.45 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 168 | 2.54 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 168 | 2.54 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 168 | 2.55 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 168 | 2.60 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.66 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 168 | 2.67 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.75 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.76 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.79 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 168 | 3.11 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 168 | 3.12 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 168 | 3.16 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 168 | 3.17 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 168 | 3.22 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.33 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.64 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 168 | 3.77 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 3.89 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 168 | 4.02 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 168 | 4.05 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 168 | 4.17 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 168 | 4.22 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 168 | 6.04 | 3.83 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |