Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
9583
460032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.71°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-22 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 174 1.40 0.19 45.3
Little Rock AR 174 1.66 -0.78 45.3
Indianapolis IN 174 1.83 -0.21 45.3
Baton Rouge LA 174 1.86 0.99 45.3
Honolulu HI 174 1.89 -1.14 45.3
Austin TX 174 1.96 0.71 45.1
Atlanta GA 174 2.04 0.37 45.3
Raleigh NC 174 2.04 0.28 45.3
Madison WI 174 2.11 1.06 45.1
Sacramento CA 174 2.18 -0.84 45.3
Saint Paul MN 174 2.20 1.84 45.3
Tallahassee FL 174 2.21 0.91 45.3
Columbus OH 174 2.22 1.18 45.1
Jefferson City MO 174 2.24 1.17 45.3
Juneau AK 174 2.32 0.17 45.3
Cheyenne WY 174 2.37 0.56 45.1
Montgomery AL 174 2.40 0.08 45.3
Frankfort KY 174 2.42 1.16 45.3
Nashville TN 174 2.45 0.34 45.1
Salem OR 174 2.48 1.10 45.1
Trenton NJ 174 2.58 1.84 45.3
Annapolis MD 174 2.61 1.18 45.3
Richmond VA 174 2.66 1.87 45.1
Hartford CT 174 2.67 1.53 45.3
Des Moines IA 174 2.67 1.98 45.3
Bismarck ND 174 2.68 2.19 45.3
Topeka KS 174 2.69 2.41 45.3
Charleston WV 174 2.70 1.22 45.1
Augusta ME 174 2.75 0.85 45.3
Springfield IL 174 2.84 2.61 45.3
Boise ID 174 2.87 1.87 45.3
Lansing MI 174 2.93 1.92 45.3
Harrisburg PA 174 2.97 1.76 45.1
Dover DE 174 2.99 1.02 45.3
Providence RI 174 2.99 2.06 45.1
Denver CO 174 3.01 1.21 45.3
Carson City NV 174 3.01 0.70 45.3
Salt Lake City UT 174 3.02 -1.53 45.1
Columbia SC 174 3.12 -2.79 45.1
Olympia WA 174 3.16 0.04 45.1
Santa Fe NM 174 3.30 -1.57 45.3
Albany NY 174 3.42 2.44 45.3
Oklahoma City OK 174 3.43 3.04 45.1
Boston MA 174 3.51 2.21 45.3
Helena MT 174 3.57 3.00 45.3
Concord NH 174 3.59 2.61 45.3
Phoenix AZ 174 3.67 0.89 45.3
Lincoln NE 174 3.87 3.77 45.3
Montpelier VT 174 3.91 1.11 45.1
Pierre SD 174 4.01 3.94 45.1

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 85.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 94.0°F 89.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 23:00 MDT Denver CO 79.0°F 83.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Dover DE 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 23:00 MDT Boise ID 88.0°F 83.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 68.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 78.0°F 72.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 78.0°F 73.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 23:00 MDT Helena MT 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 77.0°F 69.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Concord NH 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Albany NY 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 22:00 PDT Salem OR 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0