Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
5833
280032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.75°
5784 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-19 02:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 116 1.18 -0.08 38.3
Baton Rouge LA 116 1.19 0.10 38.3
Raleigh NC 116 1.53 0.06 38.3
Honolulu HI 116 1.54 -0.28 38.3
Cheyenne WY 115 1.64 0.43 38.2
Little Rock AR 116 1.72 -0.53 38.3
Jefferson City MO 116 1.72 0.53 38.3
Sacramento CA 116 1.78 -0.04 38.3
Juneau AK 116 1.87 0.30 38.3
Madison WI 115 1.88 0.49 38.2
Montgomery AL 116 1.97 -0.80 38.3
Frankfort KY 116 2.02 0.97 38.3
Des Moines IA 116 2.03 1.18 38.3
Indianapolis IN 116 2.06 0.08 38.3
Columbus OH 115 2.07 1.39 38.2
Tallahassee FL 116 2.09 0.34 38.3
Saint Paul MN 116 2.34 2.02 38.3
Springfield IL 116 2.35 1.99 38.3
Nashville TN 115 2.35 0.14 38.2
Annapolis MD 116 2.37 0.92 38.3
Salt Lake City UT 115 2.50 -0.18 38.2
Atlanta GA 116 2.52 -0.28 38.3
Richmond VA 115 2.55 2.18 38.2
Salem OR 115 2.58 2.11 38.2
Carson City NV 116 2.74 1.50 38.3
Austin TX 115 2.79 1.59 38.2
Lansing MI 116 2.83 2.26 38.3
Charleston WV 115 2.88 2.32 38.2
Bismarck ND 116 2.91 2.48 38.3
Boise ID 116 2.92 1.46 38.3
Trenton NJ 116 2.94 2.51 38.3
Denver CO 116 3.01 2.46 38.3
Topeka KS 116 3.06 2.99 38.3
Columbia SC 115 3.10 -2.65 38.2
Santa Fe NM 116 3.11 -0.82 38.3
Harrisburg PA 115 3.15 2.56 38.2
Pierre SD 115 3.22 3.18 38.2
Hartford CT 116 3.29 2.38 38.3
Olympia WA 115 3.30 1.23 38.2
Providence RI 115 3.48 2.97 38.2
Dover DE 116 3.69 1.14 38.3
Oklahoma City OK 115 3.71 2.84 38.2
Boston MA 116 3.74 2.97 38.3
Augusta ME 116 3.86 1.95 38.3
Helena MT 116 3.90 3.14 38.3
Lincoln NE 116 4.03 4.03 38.3
Phoenix AZ 116 4.16 2.68 38.3
Concord NH 116 4.58 3.94 38.3
Albany NY 116 4.66 3.94 38.3
Montpelier VT 115 4.84 2.70 38.2

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Montgomery AL 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 18:00 AKDT Juneau AK 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 19:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 19:00 PDT Sacramento CA 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 20:00 MDT Denver CO 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Dover DE 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 20:00 MDT Boise ID 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Springfield IL 84.0°F 76.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Des Moines IA 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Topeka KS 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Frankfort KY 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Augusta ME 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Boston MA 76.0°F 69.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Lansing MI 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Jackson MS 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 20:00 MDT Helena MT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Lincoln NE 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 19:00 PDT Carson City NV 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Concord NH 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Trenton NJ 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 20:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Albany NY 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Raleigh NC 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Bismarck ND 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 73.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 21:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 19:00 PDT Salem OR 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Providence RI 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 22:00 EDT Columbia SC 83.0°F 88.0°F -5.0° 48.0