Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
14683
704832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.59°
9000 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-26 11:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Providence RI 180 1.68 0.23 48.0
Honolulu HI 180 1.69 -1.19 48.0
Augusta ME 180 1.71 -0.24 48.0
Austin TX 180 1.77 1.03 48.0
Little Rock AR 180 1.81 -0.28 48.0
Hartford CT 180 1.82 0.13 48.0
Jackson MS 180 1.85 1.13 48.0
Charleston WV 180 1.90 -0.77 48.0
Albany NY 180 1.91 0.52 48.0
Trenton NJ 180 1.92 0.32 48.0
Columbus OH 180 1.92 0.94 48.0
Tallahassee FL 180 1.98 0.23 48.0
Atlanta GA 180 1.99 0.66 48.0
Indianapolis IN 180 2.02 0.27 48.0
Concord NH 180 2.14 0.48 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 180 2.16 1.65 48.0
Dover DE 180 2.22 0.54 48.0
Harrisburg PA 180 2.30 -0.06 48.0
Boston MA 180 2.33 1.02 48.0
Lansing MI 180 2.37 1.18 48.0
Annapolis MD 180 2.46 1.06 48.0
Richmond VA 180 2.48 0.50 48.0
Jefferson City MO 180 2.49 1.06 48.0
Helena MT 180 2.52 1.50 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 180 2.52 -1.62 48.0
Montgomery AL 180 2.57 1.11 48.0
Nashville TN 180 2.60 0.30 48.0
Raleigh NC 180 2.61 0.78 48.0
Juneau AK 180 2.73 0.35 48.0
Frankfort KY 180 2.81 1.94 48.0
Saint Paul MN 180 2.83 2.43 48.0
Montpelier VT 180 2.85 0.83 48.0
Topeka KS 180 2.87 1.26 48.0
Carson City NV 180 2.89 0.51 48.0
Santa Fe NM 180 2.90 -0.79 48.0
Springfield IL 180 2.92 2.72 48.0
Columbia SC 180 2.96 -2.24 48.0
Sacramento CA 180 3.01 0.46 48.0
Cheyenne WY 180 3.01 0.02 48.0
Salem OR 180 3.02 1.12 48.0
Madison WI 180 3.03 2.07 48.0
Des Moines IA 180 3.06 1.65 48.0
Olympia WA 180 3.16 -1.19 48.0
Boise ID 180 3.23 2.65 48.0
Denver CO 180 3.43 0.98 48.0
Phoenix AZ 180 3.44 -0.48 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 180 3.47 3.05 48.0
Lincoln NE 180 3.48 2.12 48.0
Bismarck ND 180 3.59 3.02 48.0
Pierre SD 180 5.01 4.23 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 03:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 04:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Little Rock AR 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 04:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 05:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Hartford CT 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Dover DE 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 01:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 05:00 MDT Boise ID 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Springfield IL 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Des Moines IA 74.0°F 80.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Topeka KS 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Frankfort KY 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Augusta ME 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Boston MA 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Jackson MS 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 05:00 MDT Helena MT 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Lincoln NE 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 04:00 PDT Carson City NV 63.0°F 57.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Concord NH 58.0°F 53.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Trenton NJ 64.0°F 60.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 05:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Raleigh NC 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Bismarck ND 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Columbus OH 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 75.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 04:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Providence RI 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 EDT Columbia SC 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0