Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.34 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.52 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 1.64 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.70 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.84 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 1.89 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 1.96 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.00 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.03 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.13 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.16 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.16 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.16 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.16 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.18 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.18 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.19 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.24 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.26 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.27 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.32 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.41 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.48 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.50 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.51 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.52 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.58 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.59 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.61 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.64 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.68 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.69 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.72 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.87 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.88 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.90 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.94 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.95 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.97 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.07 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.13 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.13 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.17 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.27 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 3.30 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.32 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.34 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.43 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.49 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 3.85 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 105.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 79.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |