Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.57 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.64 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.64 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 1.87 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.88 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 1.90 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.92 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.96 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 1.96 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.99 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.06 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.07 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.15 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.17 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.20 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.20 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.21 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.24 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.26 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.36 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.38 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.41 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.41 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.42 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.43 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.47 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.68 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.70 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.71 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.78 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.82 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 2.83 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.87 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.90 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.93 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.94 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.98 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.98 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.01 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.08 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.25 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.34 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.57 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.59 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.60 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.60 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.63 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.79 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.97 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 4.28 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 103.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 99.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |