Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.38 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.46 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.65 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.66 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.78 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.79 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.81 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.86 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 1.90 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 1.96 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.08 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.15 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.15 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.24 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.26 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.29 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.33 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.34 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.34 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.35 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.43 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.44 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.49 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.51 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.53 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.56 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.57 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.58 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.58 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.62 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.62 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.69 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.81 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.84 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.84 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.89 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.90 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.97 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.07 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.13 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.30 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.37 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 3.47 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.49 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.59 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.80 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.97 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 4.15 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 4.19 | 3.60 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 5.06 | 4.15 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 40.0°F | 47.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 39.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 36.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 40.0°F | 46.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 35.0°F | 44.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 42.0°F | 37.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 42.0°F | 48.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |