Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.28 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.52 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.78 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.86 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 1.99 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.10 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.24 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.28 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.28 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.34 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.36 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.37 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.40 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.42 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.44 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.46 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.52 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.54 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.55 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.57 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.58 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.59 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.60 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.64 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.69 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.74 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.76 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.80 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.81 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.82 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.82 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.85 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.90 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.91 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.97 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.98 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 3.05 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 3.08 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.09 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.17 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.30 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.38 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.64 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.68 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 3.97 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 4.15 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 4.15 | 3.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 4.47 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 4.99 | 3.56 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 5.69 | 4.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 37.0°F | 37.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 43.0°F | 48.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 33.0°F | 33.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 62.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 33.0°F | 28.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 36.0°F | 35.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 37.0°F | 37.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |