Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 55 | 0.87 | 0.33 | 27.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 55 | 1.15 | -0.38 | 27.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 55 | 1.18 | 0.27 | 27.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 55 | 1.22 | -0.16 | 27.5 |
| Columbus OH | 54 | 1.22 | 0.63 | 27.1 |
| Tallahassee FL | 55 | 1.31 | -0.44 | 27.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 55 | 1.40 | 0.56 | 27.5 |
| Jackson MS | 55 | 1.42 | -0.25 | 27.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 54 | 1.43 | 0.20 | 27.1 |
| Harrisburg PA | 54 | 1.67 | 0.63 | 27.1 |
| Nashville TN | 54 | 1.67 | -0.11 | 27.1 |
| Juneau AK | 55 | 1.69 | 1.33 | 27.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 55 | 1.80 | 0.09 | 27.5 |
| Madison WI | 54 | 1.83 | 1.06 | 27.1 |
| Indianapolis IN | 55 | 1.84 | 1.00 | 27.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 55 | 1.85 | 0.55 | 27.5 |
| Richmond VA | 54 | 1.91 | 1.50 | 27.1 |
| Salem OR | 54 | 1.94 | 1.39 | 27.1 |
| Frankfort KY | 55 | 1.96 | 0.22 | 27.5 |
| Topeka KS | 55 | 1.98 | 1.91 | 27.5 |
| Lansing MI | 55 | 1.98 | 1.44 | 27.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 55 | 2.02 | 0.42 | 27.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 55 | 2.15 | -0.84 | 27.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 55 | 2.18 | 2.18 | 27.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 54 | 2.19 | -0.15 | 27.1 |
| Springfield IL | 55 | 2.40 | 2.04 | 27.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 55 | 2.47 | -2.18 | 27.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 55 | 2.47 | 1.96 | 27.5 |
| Dover DE | 55 | 2.53 | 0.31 | 27.5 |
| Pierre SD | 54 | 2.69 | 2.65 | 27.1 |
| Boise ID | 55 | 2.76 | 1.78 | 27.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 54 | 2.76 | 0.94 | 27.1 |
| Helena MT | 55 | 2.82 | 1.47 | 27.5 |
| Charleston WV | 54 | 2.98 | 2.98 | 27.1 |
| Denver CO | 55 | 3.00 | 2.38 | 27.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 55 | 3.07 | -1.18 | 27.5 |
| Olympia WA | 54 | 3.09 | -0.76 | 27.1 |
| Saint Paul MN | 55 | 3.25 | 3.07 | 27.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 55 | 3.44 | 3.44 | 27.5 |
| Augusta ME | 55 | 3.47 | 1.47 | 27.5 |
| Columbia SC | 54 | 3.54 | -3.54 | 27.1 |
| Hartford CT | 55 | 3.67 | 2.51 | 27.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 55 | 3.71 | 2.47 | 27.5 |
| Austin TX | 54 | 3.78 | 3.30 | 27.1 |
| Providence RI | 54 | 4.17 | 4.09 | 27.1 |
| Carson City NV | 55 | 4.27 | 3.80 | 27.5 |
| Boston MA | 55 | 4.40 | 4.18 | 27.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 54 | 5.02 | 2.13 | 27.1 |
| Concord NH | 55 | 5.35 | 4.58 | 27.5 |
| Albany NY | 55 | 5.40 | 4.02 | 27.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |