Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.60 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.63 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 1.72 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 1.78 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.82 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 1.96 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 1.99 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.02 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.07 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.09 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.09 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.09 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.19 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.20 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.25 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.27 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.29 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.30 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.31 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.38 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.39 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.43 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.44 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.53 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.54 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.54 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.56 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.57 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.65 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.67 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.69 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.72 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.74 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.79 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.80 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.82 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.83 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.90 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 2.91 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.92 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.94 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.94 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.19 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.27 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 3.35 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 3.41 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.60 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.67 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.72 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 4.05 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 15:00 MST | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 15:00 MST | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 15:00 MST | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 PST | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 15:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 PST | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 EST | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |