Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
16083
772032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
9200 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-27 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 184 1.53 -0.97 48.0
Providence RI 184 1.58 0.05 48.0
Augusta ME 184 1.66 -0.31 48.0
Hartford CT 184 1.78 0.14 48.0
Little Rock AR 184 1.90 -0.34 48.0
Jackson MS 184 1.93 1.10 48.0
Austin TX 184 1.96 1.37 48.0
Tallahassee FL 184 1.98 -0.11 48.0
Trenton NJ 184 2.01 0.11 48.0
Charleston WV 184 2.02 -0.34 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 184 2.07 1.54 48.0
Concord NH 184 2.08 0.74 48.0
Atlanta GA 184 2.09 0.32 48.0
Albany NY 184 2.10 0.41 48.0
Harrisburg PA 184 2.18 -0.30 48.0
Lansing MI 184 2.25 0.83 48.0
Indianapolis IN 184 2.26 0.65 48.0
Columbus OH 184 2.29 1.34 48.0
Dover DE 184 2.36 0.55 48.0
Boston MA 184 2.36 1.15 48.0
Richmond VA 184 2.41 0.43 48.0
Jefferson City MO 184 2.46 0.76 48.0
Annapolis MD 184 2.50 1.03 48.0
Helena MT 184 2.53 1.11 48.0
Montgomery AL 184 2.55 1.04 48.0
Nashville TN 184 2.61 0.57 48.0
Raleigh NC 184 2.62 0.73 48.0
Juneau AK 184 2.70 0.69 48.0
Springfield IL 184 2.75 2.28 48.0
Topeka KS 184 2.80 0.73 48.0
Carson City NV 184 2.83 1.09 48.0
Columbia SC 184 2.84 -1.87 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 184 2.87 -2.02 48.0
Saint Paul MN 184 2.89 2.03 48.0
Santa Fe NM 184 2.98 -0.98 48.0
Cheyenne WY 184 3.00 -0.33 48.0
Sacramento CA 184 3.03 0.72 48.0
Des Moines IA 184 3.07 0.98 48.0
Salem OR 184 3.11 1.28 48.0
Madison WI 184 3.12 1.58 48.0
Olympia WA 184 3.19 -1.39 48.0
Montpelier VT 184 3.32 1.48 48.0
Boise ID 184 3.34 2.79 48.0
Lincoln NE 184 3.41 1.73 48.0
Phoenix AZ 184 3.45 -0.45 48.0
Frankfort KY 184 3.45 2.60 48.0
Denver CO 184 3.49 0.65 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 184 3.71 3.23 48.0
Bismarck ND 184 3.93 3.16 48.0
Pierre SD 184 4.38 3.38 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 87.0°F 81.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 90.0°F 84.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 09:00 MDT Denver CO 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 69.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Dover DE 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 89.0°F 82.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 09:00 MDT Boise ID 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 87.0°F 79.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 84.0°F 76.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 89.0°F 82.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 86.0°F 75.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 87.0°F 81.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 77.0°F 70.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Boston MA 75.0°F 67.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 89.0°F 81.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 87.0°F 81.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 09:00 MDT Helena MT 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 64.0°F 55.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Concord NH 78.0°F 66.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 81.0°F 74.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 76.0°F 69.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 81.0°F 66.0°F +15.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 77.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 08:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 53.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Providence RI 76.0°F 66.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 85.0°F 77.0°F +8.0° 48.0