Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
3733
179232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.74°
3684 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-17 08:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 74 1.19 0.54 32.8
Raleigh NC 74 1.20 -0.12 32.8
Columbus OH 73 1.29 0.77 32.5
Jackson MS 74 1.31 -0.20 32.8
Honolulu HI 74 1.43 0.14 32.8
Cheyenne WY 73 1.52 0.45 32.5
Annapolis MD 74 1.53 0.20 32.8
Tallahassee FL 74 1.62 0.30 32.8
Juneau AK 74 1.66 0.77 32.8
Madison WI 73 1.79 1.05 32.5
Harrisburg PA 73 1.85 0.95 32.5
Little Rock AR 74 1.88 -0.07 32.8
Indianapolis IN 74 1.91 0.82 32.8
Frankfort KY 74 1.92 0.43 32.8
Des Moines IA 74 1.95 0.65 32.8
Nashville TN 73 2.00 0.03 32.5
Jefferson City MO 74 2.04 1.12 32.8
Sacramento CA 74 2.08 -0.24 32.8
Bismarck ND 74 2.11 1.68 32.8
Salt Lake City UT 73 2.12 -0.15 32.5
Montgomery AL 74 2.30 -0.89 32.8
Atlanta GA 74 2.35 -1.49 32.8
Richmond VA 73 2.36 1.92 32.5
Pierre SD 73 2.62 2.59 32.5
Dover DE 74 2.76 0.35 32.8
Springfield IL 74 2.78 2.46 32.8
Topeka KS 74 2.80 2.72 32.8
Trenton NJ 74 2.81 2.43 32.8
Saint Paul MN 74 2.96 2.77 32.8
Salem OR 73 2.97 2.56 32.5
Santa Fe NM 74 3.07 -1.53 32.8
Helena MT 74 3.08 1.89 32.8
Charleston WV 73 3.10 3.10 32.5
Lansing MI 74 3.18 2.77 32.8
Denver CO 74 3.19 2.70 32.8
Boise ID 74 3.22 1.97 32.8
Hartford CT 74 3.38 2.49 32.8
Olympia WA 73 3.44 0.56 32.5
Carson City NV 74 3.45 2.58 32.8
Columbia SC 73 3.62 -3.62 32.5
Austin TX 73 3.64 3.15 32.5
Oklahoma City OK 73 3.68 2.34 32.5
Providence RI 73 3.70 3.59 32.5
Phoenix AZ 74 3.81 2.43 32.8
Augusta ME 74 3.99 1.91 32.8
Boston MA 74 4.09 3.47 32.8
Lincoln NE 74 4.26 4.26 32.8
Concord NH 74 5.18 4.61 32.8
Montpelier VT 73 5.23 2.41 32.5
Albany NY 74 5.35 4.32 32.8

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 00:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 01:00 MST Phoenix AZ 89.0°F 78.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 01:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 02:00 MDT Denver CO 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 22:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 02:00 MDT Boise ID 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Springfield IL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Des Moines IA 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Topeka KS 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Augusta ME 58.0°F 62.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Boston MA 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Lansing MI 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 02:00 MDT Helena MT 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Lincoln NE 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 01:00 PDT Carson City NV 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 02:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Albany NY 64.0°F 60.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Bismarck ND 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Columbus OH 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 01:00 PDT Salem OR 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Providence RI 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 04:00 EDT Columbia SC 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0