Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.34 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.43 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.73 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 1.82 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 1.87 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.91 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 1.92 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 1.95 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.98 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.19 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.21 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.22 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.23 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.26 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.30 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.32 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.36 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.37 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.40 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.42 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.44 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.45 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.45 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.47 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.48 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.52 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.52 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.52 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.62 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.64 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 2.69 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.70 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.71 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.78 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.84 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.88 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.91 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.96 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.04 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 3.07 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 3.08 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.15 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.24 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.34 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.53 | 3.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.59 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.64 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 4.36 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 4.59 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 62.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 51.0°F | 42.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 40.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 35.0°F | 31.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |