Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.45 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.54 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 1.57 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.61 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.83 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.85 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.00 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.09 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.14 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.18 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.18 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.21 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.22 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.30 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.35 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.39 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.39 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.42 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.45 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.53 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.54 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.55 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.59 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.60 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.70 | -2.44 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.81 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.83 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.89 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.98 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.03 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.06 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.06 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.11 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 3.14 | -2.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 3.23 | -3.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.24 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.26 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.26 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.34 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 3.35 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 3.37 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.39 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.42 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 3.45 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.62 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 3.70 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.83 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.91 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 4.00 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 4.00 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 36.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 36.0°F | 38.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 49.0°F | 55.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 54.0°F | 46.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 30.0°F | 31.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 50.0°F | 58.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 36.0°F | 42.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 45.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 28.0°F | 27.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 34.0°F | 36.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 36.0°F | 41.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |