Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 1.74 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.86 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 1.87 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 1.87 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 1.88 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.91 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.94 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 1.96 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 1.98 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.99 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.15 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.15 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.21 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.22 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.22 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.29 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.31 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.35 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.37 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.46 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.51 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.53 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.55 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.56 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.58 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.62 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.63 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.64 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.69 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.73 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.78 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.78 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.84 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.84 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.85 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.86 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.91 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.93 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.98 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.05 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 3.09 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 3.09 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.22 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.23 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 3.29 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.34 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.41 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.55 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.94 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 4.16 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 104.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 97.0°F | 92.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 97.0°F | 100.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 77.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 73.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 85.0°F | 93.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |