Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.30 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.51 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.55 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.72 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 1.95 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.02 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.02 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.08 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.10 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.11 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.20 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.20 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.24 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.25 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.28 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.28 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.31 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.32 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.32 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.38 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.46 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.46 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.49 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.51 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.56 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.56 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.61 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.66 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.74 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.75 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.78 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.81 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.85 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.86 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.89 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.97 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.05 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.06 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 3.08 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.11 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.24 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.37 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.63 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.75 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.76 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 3.83 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.85 | 3.32 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 4.46 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 4.52 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 5.88 | 4.04 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 46.0°F | 54.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 34.0°F | 37.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 47.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |