Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.60 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.65 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 1.78 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 1.85 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.85 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 1.89 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.91 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.94 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.95 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 1.97 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 1.98 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.01 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.14 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.23 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.23 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.23 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.24 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.25 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.33 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.34 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.38 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.43 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.43 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.44 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.44 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.46 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.61 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.68 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.69 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.69 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.77 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.77 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.81 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.83 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.84 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.85 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.86 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.90 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.93 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.96 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 3.15 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.33 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.33 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.35 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.40 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.49 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.53 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 3.57 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.66 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.80 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 34.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 53.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 78.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 71.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 61.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 76.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |