Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.34 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.40 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 1.54 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 1.58 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 1.65 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 1.71 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.73 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.76 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 1.82 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.97 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.05 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.07 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.08 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.16 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.25 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.37 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.38 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.38 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.38 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.41 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.44 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.46 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.57 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.58 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.62 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.62 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.63 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.69 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.70 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.83 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.85 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.89 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.91 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.93 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.98 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.99 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.99 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 3.01 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.05 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.07 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.11 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 3.12 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.12 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 3.24 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.29 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 3.32 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.63 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.63 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.76 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.84 | -3.05 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 105.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 102.0°F | 100.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 77.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 88.0°F | 79.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 59.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 80.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |