Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.36 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.71 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.89 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.91 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.00 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.13 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.14 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.32 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.33 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.39 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.40 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.42 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.49 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.50 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.52 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.58 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.63 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.67 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.68 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.69 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.74 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.75 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.77 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.78 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.83 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.87 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.89 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.90 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.93 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.96 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.99 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 3.00 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.02 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.07 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.10 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 3.10 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.15 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 3.25 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 3.27 | -2.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.43 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.46 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 3.50 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.56 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.58 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.68 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.76 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.83 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.84 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 4.08 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 4.10 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 34.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |