Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.42 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.54 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.64 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 1.66 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.78 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.86 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 1.87 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.92 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.97 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.10 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.11 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.11 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.11 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.14 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.15 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.22 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.31 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.35 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.35 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.35 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.36 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.38 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.41 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.42 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.50 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.53 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.56 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.59 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.60 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.61 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.61 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.62 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.71 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.73 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.76 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.78 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.82 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.82 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.87 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.04 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 3.19 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 3.28 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.29 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.34 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.59 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.63 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.85 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.88 | 3.00 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 4.05 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 4.11 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 16:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 MST | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Dover DE | 48.0°F | 42.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 MST | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 MST | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 PST | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 PST | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 EST | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |