Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 37 | 0.89 | 0.62 | 19.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 37 | 1.00 | -0.03 | 19.0 |
| Juneau AK | 37 | 1.11 | 0.62 | 19.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 37 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 19.0 |
| Richmond VA | 36 | 1.14 | 0.53 | 18.5 |
| Columbus OH | 36 | 1.22 | 0.67 | 18.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 37 | 1.35 | -0.38 | 19.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 37 | 1.35 | 0.54 | 19.0 |
| Jackson MS | 37 | 1.54 | -0.14 | 19.0 |
| Nashville TN | 36 | 1.58 | -0.42 | 18.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 36 | 1.58 | 0.19 | 18.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 37 | 1.62 | 0.43 | 19.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 37 | 1.65 | 1.00 | 19.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 36 | 1.83 | 0.67 | 18.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 37 | 1.84 | 0.59 | 19.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 37 | 1.89 | 1.24 | 19.0 |
| Lansing MI | 37 | 1.92 | 1.32 | 19.0 |
| Salem OR | 36 | 1.92 | 1.25 | 18.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 37 | 2.00 | 0.76 | 19.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 36 | 2.03 | 0.86 | 18.5 |
| Madison WI | 36 | 2.06 | 1.50 | 18.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 37 | 2.08 | 0.14 | 19.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 37 | 2.08 | 0.30 | 19.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 37 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 19.0 |
| Topeka KS | 37 | 2.11 | 2.05 | 19.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 37 | 2.16 | -1.84 | 19.0 |
| Springfield IL | 37 | 2.16 | 1.62 | 19.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 37 | 2.27 | -1.84 | 19.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 36 | 2.28 | -0.39 | 18.5 |
| Pierre SD | 36 | 2.58 | 2.53 | 18.5 |
| Dover DE | 37 | 2.59 | 0.54 | 19.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 37 | 2.59 | 2.32 | 19.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 37 | 2.92 | 2.92 | 19.0 |
| Olympia WA | 36 | 3.00 | 0.17 | 18.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 37 | 3.11 | -2.14 | 19.0 |
| Columbia SC | 36 | 3.14 | -3.14 | 18.5 |
| Hartford CT | 37 | 3.16 | 1.81 | 19.0 |
| Charleston WV | 36 | 3.17 | 3.17 | 18.5 |
| Helena MT | 37 | 3.27 | 2.78 | 19.0 |
| Boise ID | 37 | 3.38 | 2.51 | 19.0 |
| Denver CO | 37 | 3.62 | 3.62 | 19.0 |
| Austin TX | 36 | 3.67 | 3.61 | 18.5 |
| Providence RI | 36 | 4.06 | 3.94 | 18.5 |
| Boston MA | 37 | 4.19 | 3.92 | 19.0 |
| Augusta ME | 37 | 4.27 | 2.49 | 19.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 37 | 4.30 | 2.95 | 19.0 |
| Concord NH | 37 | 4.95 | 3.81 | 19.0 |
| Carson City NV | 37 | 5.19 | 4.65 | 19.0 |
| Albany NY | 37 | 5.24 | 3.19 | 19.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 36 | 5.33 | 3.00 | 18.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 101.0°F | +2.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 94.0°F | 84.0°F | +10.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 92.0°F | 84.0°F | +8.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 99.0°F | 95.0°F | +4.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 82.0°F | -7.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 92.0°F | 80.0°F | +12.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 69.0°F | +18.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 93.0°F | 84.0°F | +9.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 36.0 |