Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
24783
1189632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.50°
9500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-03 21:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 190 1.49 -0.54 48.0
Honolulu HI 190 1.62 -1.36 48.0
Salem OR 190 1.64 0.79 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 190 1.88 1.27 48.0
Raleigh NC 190 1.98 -0.12 48.0
Nashville TN 190 2.05 0.55 48.0
Little Rock AR 190 2.06 -0.55 48.0
Charleston WV 190 2.15 1.58 48.0
Sacramento CA 190 2.16 1.88 48.0
Trenton NJ 190 2.17 -1.15 48.0
Lansing MI 190 2.19 0.65 48.0
Jefferson City MO 190 2.19 1.26 48.0
Boston MA 190 2.24 0.41 48.0
Providence RI 190 2.24 -0.58 48.0
Annapolis MD 190 2.28 0.70 48.0
Augusta ME 190 2.30 -1.63 48.0
Jackson MS 190 2.30 1.05 48.0
Columbus OH 190 2.33 0.34 48.0
Carson City NV 190 2.34 1.60 48.0
Harrisburg PA 190 2.34 -0.58 48.0
Saint Paul MN 190 2.36 -0.15 48.0
Austin TX 190 2.38 2.35 48.0
Topeka KS 190 2.39 1.08 48.0
Helena MT 190 2.41 -0.29 48.0
Atlanta GA 190 2.42 0.59 48.0
Juneau AK 190 2.43 0.94 48.0
Lincoln NE 190 2.48 1.51 48.0
Indianapolis IN 190 2.52 0.92 48.0
Hartford CT 190 2.53 -1.58 48.0
Dover DE 190 2.53 -0.81 48.0
Des Moines IA 190 2.53 -0.22 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 190 2.60 1.44 48.0
Montpelier VT 190 2.61 1.28 48.0
Phoenix AZ 190 2.62 -1.43 48.0
Pierre SD 190 2.66 1.09 48.0
Madison WI 190 2.71 1.14 48.0
Springfield IL 190 2.77 2.11 48.0
Albany NY 190 2.87 -0.65 48.0
Columbia SC 190 2.89 0.30 48.0
Olympia WA 190 2.91 -0.73 48.0
Boise ID 190 2.95 -0.02 48.0
Frankfort KY 190 3.02 2.38 48.0
Tallahassee FL 190 3.03 0.28 48.0
Montgomery AL 190 3.04 -0.69 48.0
Denver CO 190 3.10 1.34 48.0
Bismarck ND 190 3.10 0.58 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 190 3.24 1.12 48.0
Cheyenne WY 190 3.25 0.39 48.0
Santa Fe NM 190 3.38 -1.67 48.0
Concord NH 190 3.41 -1.99 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 82.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 13:00 AKDT Juneau AK 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 14:00 MST Phoenix AZ 111.0°F 111.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Little Rock AR 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 14:00 PDT Sacramento CA 100.0°F 101.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 15:00 MDT Denver CO 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Hartford CT 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 92.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 15:00 MDT Boise ID 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Springfield IL 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 83.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Des Moines IA 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Topeka KS 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Frankfort KY 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Augusta ME 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Annapolis MD 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Boston MA 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Lansing MI 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 15:00 MDT Helena MT 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Lincoln NE 92.0°F 87.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 14:00 PDT Carson City NV 95.0°F 88.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Concord NH 79.0°F 71.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Trenton NJ 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 15:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Albany NY 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Raleigh NC 83.0°F 89.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Bismarck ND 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Columbus OH 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 16:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 98.0°F 98.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 14:00 PDT Salem OR 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Providence RI 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 17:00 EDT Columbia SC 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0