Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
3133
150432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
3084 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-16 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 62 1.00 0.48 29.8
Columbus OH 61 1.23 0.67 29.5
Tallahassee FL 62 1.24 -0.34 29.8
Raleigh NC 62 1.26 -0.10 29.8
Cheyenne WY 61 1.38 0.23 29.5
Honolulu HI 62 1.39 0.45 29.8
Jackson MS 62 1.42 -0.35 29.8
Jefferson City MO 62 1.45 0.35 29.8
Annapolis MD 62 1.63 0.40 29.8
Juneau AK 62 1.69 1.02 29.8
Little Rock AR 62 1.69 0.47 29.8
Harrisburg PA 61 1.75 0.84 29.5
Montgomery AL 62 1.82 -0.15 29.8
Indianapolis IN 62 1.85 1.08 29.8
Nashville TN 61 1.89 0.11 29.5
Madison WI 61 1.90 1.21 29.5
Topeka KS 62 1.92 1.82 29.8
Frankfort KY 62 2.00 0.42 29.8
Sacramento CA 62 2.05 -0.69 29.8
Des Moines IA 62 2.05 0.63 29.8
Salt Lake City UT 61 2.16 -0.07 29.5
Bismarck ND 62 2.18 2.18 29.8
Atlanta GA 62 2.29 -2.03 29.8
Richmond VA 61 2.30 1.93 29.5
Springfield IL 62 2.40 2.05 29.8
Salem OR 61 2.44 1.95 29.5
Lansing MI 62 2.60 2.11 29.8
Helena MT 62 2.63 1.21 29.8
Pierre SD 61 2.64 2.61 29.5
Boise ID 62 2.66 1.37 29.8
Dover DE 62 2.69 0.73 29.8
Trenton NJ 62 2.84 2.39 29.8
Oklahoma City OK 61 2.93 1.33 29.5
Santa Fe NM 62 3.02 -1.34 29.8
Denver CO 62 3.10 2.55 29.8
Charleston WV 61 3.16 3.16 29.5
Saint Paul MN 62 3.32 3.16 29.8
Olympia WA 61 3.34 -0.07 29.5
Lincoln NE 62 3.35 3.35 29.8
Columbia SC 61 3.39 -3.39 29.5
Austin TX 61 3.51 3.05 29.5
Hartford CT 62 3.56 2.53 29.8
Phoenix AZ 62 3.63 2.53 29.8
Providence RI 61 4.02 3.95 29.5
Carson City NV 62 4.03 3.13 29.8
Boston MA 62 4.18 3.50 29.8
Augusta ME 62 4.26 2.48 29.8
Concord NH 62 4.92 4.24 29.8
Albany NY 62 5.24 4.02 29.8
Montpelier VT 61 5.46 2.90 29.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 99.0°F 99.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 14:00 MDT Denver CO 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 90.0°F 85.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Dover DE 96.0°F 96.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 14:00 MDT Boise ID 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 82.0°F 70.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 96.0°F 88.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Boston MA 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 91.0°F 85.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 90.0°F 82.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 14:00 MDT Helena MT 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 91.0°F 83.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Concord NH 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 95.0°F 89.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Albany NY 89.0°F 84.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 98.0°F 97.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 79.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 13:00 PDT Salem OR 72.0°F 63.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Providence RI 90.0°F 85.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0