Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.54 | 0.17 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.62 | -0.76 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 1.68 | 0.81 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.72 | -0.42 | 47.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.84 | -1.45 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 1.85 | 0.60 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.16 | 1.41 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.21 | 0.96 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.23 | 1.28 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.28 | 0.13 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.28 | 0.18 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.32 | 0.56 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.36 | 0.06 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.36 | 0.68 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.37 | 0.12 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.41 | 1.39 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.43 | 1.44 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.44 | 2.13 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.48 | 0.40 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.50 | 1.54 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.51 | 1.17 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.52 | 0.61 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.56 | 0.61 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.66 | 0.23 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.68 | 2.10 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.68 | 1.15 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.74 | 1.79 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.81 | 1.40 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.82 | 1.83 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.83 | 1.37 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.84 | 0.47 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.86 | 1.93 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.88 | 2.73 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.92 | -1.43 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.98 | 2.72 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 3.00 | -2.63 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 3.04 | 0.63 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.08 | 1.65 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 3.18 | 2.20 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.21 | 2.21 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.25 | 2.80 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.30 | 1.44 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.30 | -0.70 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 3.39 | 1.63 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.41 | 3.23 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.43 | 0.86 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.54 | -0.16 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.58 | 0.96 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 4.13 | 3.96 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 4.63 | 4.52 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 112.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 84.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 93.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |