Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.18 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 1.63 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.65 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.76 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 1.78 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.85 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.91 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 1.94 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 1.95 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 1.96 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.06 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.14 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.19 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.24 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.24 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.24 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.26 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.28 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.30 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.32 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.39 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.45 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.45 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.45 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.46 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.46 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.50 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.51 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.56 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.58 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.58 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.58 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.64 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.69 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.75 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.76 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.82 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.88 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.95 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 3.02 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 3.07 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.08 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 3.13 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 3.15 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.46 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.58 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.65 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.81 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 3.96 | 3.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 4.15 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 109.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 72.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 92.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 91.0°F | 84.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |