Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.29 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.47 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.51 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.85 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 1.92 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.96 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.01 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.08 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.09 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.19 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.19 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.21 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.26 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.28 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.29 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.29 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.30 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.32 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.36 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.37 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.43 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.44 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.49 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.50 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.54 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.55 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.59 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.59 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.68 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.72 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.75 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.79 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.80 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.80 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.91 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.91 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.02 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 3.04 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.07 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.07 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.18 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.36 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 3.63 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 3.69 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.69 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.73 | 3.18 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.74 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 4.39 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 4.43 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 5.69 | 3.91 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 38.0°F | 35.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 54.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 39.0°F | 45.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 38.0°F | 41.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 34.0°F | 36.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 32.0°F | 28.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 41.0°F | 36.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 34.0°F | 34.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 36.0°F | 27.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 40.0°F | 36.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |