Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.53 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.63 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 1.86 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 1.88 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 1.92 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.98 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.04 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.06 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.07 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.13 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.14 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.15 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.22 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.25 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.25 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.26 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.27 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.28 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.32 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.33 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.33 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.34 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.37 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.37 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.42 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.43 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.48 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.53 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.53 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.56 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.57 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.57 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.69 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.70 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.74 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.76 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.81 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.83 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.83 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.85 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.88 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.97 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.98 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.03 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.14 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.16 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.24 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.25 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.38 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.41 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 101.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 98.0°F | 93.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 71.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 85.0°F | 70.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 97.0°F | 91.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 87.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 64.0°F | +22.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 97.0°F | 93.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 102.0°F | 102.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 94.0°F | 88.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |