Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.33 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.49 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.52 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.85 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.02 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.02 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.07 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.12 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.15 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.15 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.16 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.17 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.19 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.23 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.23 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.23 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.24 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.26 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.29 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.29 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.31 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.36 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.37 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.38 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.38 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.42 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.42 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.56 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.57 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.61 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.63 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.63 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.67 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.72 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.73 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.94 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 3.06 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.09 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.10 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.14 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.28 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.28 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 3.60 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.66 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 3.82 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.98 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 4.03 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 4.10 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 4.15 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 5.82 | 3.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 48.0°F | 42.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 35.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 55.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 31.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 40.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |