Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 41 | 0.93 | 0.54 | 21.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 41 | 0.98 | -0.05 | 21.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 41 | 1.17 | -0.05 | 21.0 |
| Columbus OH | 40 | 1.23 | 0.72 | 20.5 |
| Juneau AK | 41 | 1.34 | 0.90 | 21.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 41 | 1.34 | -0.41 | 21.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 41 | 1.34 | 0.61 | 21.0 |
| Richmond VA | 39 | 1.41 | 0.85 | 20.0 |
| Jackson MS | 41 | 1.49 | -0.07 | 21.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 39 | 1.51 | 0.18 | 20.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 41 | 1.59 | 0.95 | 21.0 |
| Nashville TN | 39 | 1.69 | -0.15 | 20.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 40 | 1.85 | 0.80 | 20.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 41 | 1.90 | 0.83 | 21.0 |
| Lansing MI | 41 | 1.90 | 1.37 | 21.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 41 | 1.93 | 0.80 | 21.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 39 | 1.95 | 0.87 | 20.0 |
| Madison WI | 39 | 1.97 | 1.46 | 20.0 |
| Salem OR | 40 | 2.02 | 1.43 | 20.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 41 | 2.07 | 0.95 | 21.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 41 | 2.15 | 0.54 | 21.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 41 | 2.15 | -1.85 | 21.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 41 | 2.17 | 0.22 | 21.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 41 | 2.17 | 2.17 | 21.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 41 | 2.22 | 1.63 | 21.0 |
| Springfield IL | 41 | 2.24 | 1.76 | 21.0 |
| Topeka KS | 41 | 2.24 | 2.20 | 21.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 40 | 2.38 | -0.03 | 20.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 41 | 2.44 | -2.05 | 21.0 |
| Pierre SD | 39 | 2.49 | 2.44 | 20.0 |
| Dover DE | 41 | 2.51 | 0.56 | 21.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 41 | 2.88 | 2.63 | 21.0 |
| Olympia WA | 39 | 3.03 | -0.10 | 20.0 |
| Helena MT | 41 | 3.07 | 2.49 | 21.0 |
| Boise ID | 41 | 3.15 | 2.37 | 21.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 41 | 3.17 | 3.17 | 21.0 |
| Charleston WV | 39 | 3.28 | 3.28 | 20.0 |
| Columbia SC | 40 | 3.33 | -3.33 | 20.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 41 | 3.34 | -2.12 | 21.0 |
| Denver CO | 41 | 3.41 | 3.27 | 21.0 |
| Hartford CT | 41 | 3.85 | 2.63 | 21.0 |
| Augusta ME | 41 | 4.07 | 2.46 | 21.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 41 | 4.10 | 2.73 | 21.0 |
| Austin TX | 39 | 4.28 | 4.23 | 20.0 |
| Boston MA | 41 | 4.59 | 4.34 | 21.0 |
| Providence RI | 40 | 4.67 | 4.58 | 20.5 |
| Carson City NV | 41 | 4.78 | 4.15 | 21.0 |
| Concord NH | 41 | 5.20 | 4.17 | 21.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 39 | 5.59 | 3.44 | 20.0 |
| Albany NY | 41 | 6.12 | 4.27 | 21.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 108.0°F | -3.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 100.0°F | 103.0°F | -3.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 88.0°F | 80.0°F | +8.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 94.0°F | 89.0°F | +5.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 88.0°F | 80.0°F | +8.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 96.0°F | 89.0°F | +7.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 95.0°F | 85.0°F | +10.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 87.0°F | 75.0°F | +12.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 40.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 40.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 40.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 40.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 88.0°F | 79.0°F | +9.0° | 40.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 91.0°F | -6.0° | 40.0 |