Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.28 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.59 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 1.78 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.82 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 1.90 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 1.90 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.91 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.96 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.09 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.09 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.10 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.10 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.14 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.16 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.23 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.24 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.26 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.27 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.29 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.31 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.31 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.34 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.40 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.45 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.51 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.51 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.55 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.59 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.63 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.69 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.78 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.82 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.87 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.88 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.93 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.95 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 3.00 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.03 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.05 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.05 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.07 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.21 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.23 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.25 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.37 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 3.49 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.51 | -2.65 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.65 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.66 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.74 | -2.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 44.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 98.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 78.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 76.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |