Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
5433
260832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.68°
5384 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-18 18:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 108 1.20 -0.15 37.6
Baton Rouge LA 108 1.23 0.06 37.6
Raleigh NC 108 1.33 -0.02 37.6
Honolulu HI 108 1.49 -0.14 37.6
Cheyenne WY 107 1.57 0.26 37.5
Little Rock AR 108 1.76 -0.48 37.6
Jefferson City MO 108 1.77 0.60 37.6
Sacramento CA 108 1.79 -0.08 37.6
Columbus OH 107 1.81 1.08 37.5
Juneau AK 108 1.85 0.48 37.6
Indianapolis IN 108 1.91 0.13 37.6
Des Moines IA 108 1.94 1.03 37.6
Madison WI 107 1.97 0.48 37.5
Montgomery AL 108 1.98 -0.78 37.6
Frankfort KY 108 2.00 0.87 37.6
Tallahassee FL 108 2.01 0.25 37.6
Annapolis MD 108 2.19 0.70 37.6
Nashville TN 107 2.22 0.07 37.5
Springfield IL 108 2.23 1.84 37.6
Richmond VA 107 2.26 1.91 37.5
Atlanta GA 108 2.45 -0.47 37.6
Saint Paul MN 108 2.47 2.12 37.6
Salt Lake City UT 107 2.51 -0.23 37.5
Salem OR 107 2.58 2.07 37.5
Charleston WV 107 2.75 2.15 37.5
Topeka KS 108 2.80 2.72 37.6
Carson City NV 108 2.82 1.73 37.6
Lansing MI 108 2.85 2.31 37.6
Trenton NJ 108 2.89 2.43 37.6
Pierre SD 107 2.93 2.89 37.5
Austin TX 107 2.93 1.78 37.5
Bismarck ND 108 3.00 2.67 37.6
Harrisburg PA 107 3.02 2.38 37.5
Columbia SC 107 3.07 -2.58 37.5
Denver CO 108 3.08 2.53 37.6
Hartford CT 108 3.08 2.10 37.6
Boise ID 108 3.08 1.53 37.6
Santa Fe NM 108 3.10 -0.68 37.6
Providence RI 107 3.14 2.60 37.5
Olympia WA 107 3.29 1.07 37.5
Dover DE 108 3.31 1.18 37.6
Boston MA 108 3.41 2.57 37.6
Augusta ME 108 3.58 1.53 37.6
Oklahoma City OK 107 3.79 2.85 37.5
Helena MT 108 3.89 3.07 37.6
Phoenix AZ 108 4.06 2.47 37.6
Lincoln NE 108 4.25 4.25 37.6
Concord NH 108 4.35 3.67 37.6
Albany NY 108 4.55 3.77 37.6
Montpelier VT 107 4.66 2.36 37.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Montgomery AL 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 59.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 11:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 81.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Little Rock AR 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 11:00 PDT Sacramento CA 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 12:00 MDT Denver CO 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Dover DE 82.0°F 93.0°F -11.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 08:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 12:00 MDT Boise ID 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Springfield IL 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Des Moines IA 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Topeka KS 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Frankfort KY 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 68.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 91.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Boston MA 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Lansing MI 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Jackson MS 92.0°F 92.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 12:00 MDT Helena MT 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Lincoln NE 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 11:00 PDT Carson City NV 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Concord NH 82.0°F 76.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Trenton NJ 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 12:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Albany NY 83.0°F 69.0°F +14.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Raleigh NC 97.0°F 91.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Bismarck ND 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Columbus OH 86.0°F 74.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 11:00 PDT Salem OR 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 85.0°F 76.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Providence RI 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 EDT Columbia SC 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 48.0