Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.29 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.74 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.95 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 1.99 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.15 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.16 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.42 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.43 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.47 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.54 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.57 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.58 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.58 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.59 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.59 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.62 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.69 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.70 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.70 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.74 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.79 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.84 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.86 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.94 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.96 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.96 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.97 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.97 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.98 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.98 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.99 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 3.00 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.01 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 3.04 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.12 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.15 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.23 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 3.30 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 3.37 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.60 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 3.68 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 3.69 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.88 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.96 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 4.13 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 4.31 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 4.32 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 4.76 | 4.53 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 4.94 | 4.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 5.68 | 3.58 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 66.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 55.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |