Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.36 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.47 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.63 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.67 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.77 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.79 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.85 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.85 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 1.90 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 1.96 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.08 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.11 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.14 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.23 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.24 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.28 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.28 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.31 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.35 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.40 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.43 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.44 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.47 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.50 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.53 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.58 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.59 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.59 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.61 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.63 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.63 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.66 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.78 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.79 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.86 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.88 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.88 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.96 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.07 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.11 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.24 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 3.42 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.42 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.48 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.62 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.81 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.92 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 4.11 | 3.42 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 4.28 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 5.01 | 3.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 35.0°F | 41.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 36.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 37.0°F | 41.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 38.0°F | 38.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |