Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.28 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.58 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 1.78 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.83 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 1.88 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.90 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 1.92 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.96 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.08 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.08 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.08 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.15 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.16 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.21 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.25 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.25 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.27 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.28 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.28 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.29 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.30 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.31 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.38 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.45 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.49 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.50 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.61 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.61 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.63 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.68 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.81 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.85 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.86 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.89 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.90 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.94 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.02 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.04 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.04 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 3.06 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.07 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 3.19 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.19 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.28 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.39 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 3.46 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.49 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.64 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.66 | 3.39 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.72 | -2.78 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 41.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 96.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 77.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 77.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 74.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |