Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.32 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.47 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.52 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.83 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.02 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.02 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.06 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.13 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.16 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.16 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.17 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.17 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.21 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.22 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.24 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.26 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.28 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.28 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.29 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.29 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.32 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.35 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.35 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.37 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.37 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.40 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.43 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.55 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.56 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.60 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.64 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.65 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.71 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.73 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.75 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.97 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 3.02 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.08 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.09 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.15 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.25 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.35 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 3.59 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.63 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 3.79 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.99 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 4.01 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 4.09 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 4.18 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 5.83 | 3.68 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 47.0°F | 41.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 38.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 47.0°F | 40.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 43.0°F | 52.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 30.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |