Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.38 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.56 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 1.63 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 1.69 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.84 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.99 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.99 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.12 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.12 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.16 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.17 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.18 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.19 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.23 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.26 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.28 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.29 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.32 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.34 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.34 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.38 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.38 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.39 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.40 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.45 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.49 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.50 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.61 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.64 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.72 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.73 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.73 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.74 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.76 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.77 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.77 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.80 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.81 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.90 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.96 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.99 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.01 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.02 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.15 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.18 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.22 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.24 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.25 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.34 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.51 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 107.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 81.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |