Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.42 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 1.77 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 1.87 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.90 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.94 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 1.95 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 1.95 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.05 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.05 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.07 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 2.16 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.24 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.24 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.27 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.33 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.34 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.37 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.38 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.42 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.44 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.44 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.45 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 2.52 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.55 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.57 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.60 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.61 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.62 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.63 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.66 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.72 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.73 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.75 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.81 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.82 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.83 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.84 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 2.93 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.97 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 3.00 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 3.05 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.07 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 3.11 | -2.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 3.16 | -2.97 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.20 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 3.36 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.36 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.49 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.69 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 4.02 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 MST | Denver CO | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 MST | Boise ID | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Springfield IL | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Topeka KS | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 41.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 38.0°F | 32.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Jackson MS | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 MST | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 38.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 PST | Carson City NV | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 37.0°F | 42.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 30.0°F | 27.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 PST | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 EST | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |