Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
54483
2615232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.46°
9200 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-28 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Des Moines IA 184 1.73 0.06 48.0
Saint Paul MN 184 1.73 -0.27 48.0
Lansing MI 184 1.77 0.79 48.0
Richmond VA 184 1.79 -0.13 48.0
Columbus OH 184 1.88 -1.53 48.0
Frankfort KY 184 1.96 0.95 48.0
Sacramento CA 184 2.02 0.64 48.0
Pierre SD 184 2.02 1.09 48.0
Atlanta GA 184 2.03 1.10 48.0
Charleston WV 184 2.04 1.08 48.0
Madison WI 184 2.05 0.98 48.0
Annapolis MD 184 2.09 0.60 48.0
Tallahassee FL 184 2.10 0.33 48.0
Jefferson City MO 184 2.10 1.23 48.0
Boston MA 184 2.16 0.40 48.0
Trenton NJ 184 2.18 1.15 48.0
Indianapolis IN 184 2.20 -1.64 48.0
Providence RI 184 2.22 0.21 48.0
Nashville TN 184 2.23 0.36 48.0
Lincoln NE 184 2.25 0.76 48.0
Austin TX 184 2.26 1.80 48.0
Honolulu HI 184 2.27 -2.08 48.0
Topeka KS 184 2.28 1.06 48.0
Augusta ME 184 2.28 -1.68 48.0
Albany NY 184 2.28 -0.65 48.0
Harrisburg PA 184 2.28 0.43 48.0
Hartford CT 184 2.35 -0.48 48.0
Salem OR 184 2.41 0.30 48.0
Concord NH 184 2.43 -0.66 48.0
Montpelier VT 184 2.45 1.36 48.0
Juneau AK 184 2.49 1.54 48.0
Raleigh NC 184 2.53 0.77 48.0
Phoenix AZ 184 2.66 -1.57 48.0
Dover DE 184 2.67 -0.93 48.0
Carson City NV 184 2.72 -1.81 48.0
Bismarck ND 184 2.77 -0.35 48.0
Columbia SC 184 2.83 0.24 48.0
Cheyenne WY 184 2.83 -0.28 48.0
Montgomery AL 184 2.85 -1.24 48.0
Boise ID 184 2.87 -2.11 48.0
Santa Fe NM 184 2.88 -0.30 48.0
Denver CO 184 2.92 0.79 48.0
Springfield IL 184 2.93 2.24 48.0
Helena MT 184 3.03 -0.22 48.0
Jackson MS 184 3.04 1.63 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 184 3.13 0.70 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 184 3.18 -0.28 48.0
Olympia WA 184 3.21 -1.51 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 184 3.62 2.71 48.0
Little Rock AR 184 3.77 0.78 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 43.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Dover DE 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 MDT Boise ID 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Boston MA 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 MDT Helena MT 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Concord NH 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 74.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Albany NY 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 81.0°F 75.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 69.0°F 62.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 80.0°F 86.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 08:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Providence RI 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0