Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.59 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.68 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.75 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.83 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.84 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 1.86 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 1.95 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.99 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 1.99 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.04 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.05 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.10 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.13 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.14 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.14 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.20 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.26 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.28 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.36 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.36 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.40 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.41 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.44 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.45 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.49 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.49 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.53 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.56 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.56 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.63 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.63 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.67 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.73 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.76 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.78 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.81 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.82 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.84 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.95 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.97 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.98 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.03 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.22 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.31 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 3.47 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.48 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 3.55 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.70 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.85 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 4.09 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 71.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 23:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 00:00 MST | Denver CO | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Dover DE | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 00:00 MST | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 53.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 65.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 00:00 MST | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 31.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 23:00 PST | Carson City NV | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Concord NH | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 00:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 58.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 23:00 PST | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 EST | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |