Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.73 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 1.73 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 1.73 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.75 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.79 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 1.80 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 1.83 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.84 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.90 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.92 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.96 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.01 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.02 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.06 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.08 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.20 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.24 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.24 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.33 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.38 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.49 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.52 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.52 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.55 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.56 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.57 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.66 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.66 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.69 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.79 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.87 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.88 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.90 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.90 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.95 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 2.96 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.97 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.98 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.00 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 3.06 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.06 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 3.08 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.21 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 3.23 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.40 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.41 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.49 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.49 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.52 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 5.11 | 4.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 70.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 99.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 87.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |