Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.53 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 1.56 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 1.67 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 1.79 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.88 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.95 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 1.97 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.99 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.01 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.06 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.08 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.10 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.12 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.15 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.15 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.28 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.32 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.32 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.36 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.41 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.42 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.46 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.50 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.53 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.65 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.66 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.69 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.70 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.78 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.80 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.80 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.80 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.87 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.95 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.98 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.98 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.04 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 3.11 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 3.15 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.19 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.26 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.32 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 3.38 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.38 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.40 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 3.54 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.61 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.63 | 3.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.93 | 3.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 4.28 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 108.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 101.0°F | 100.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 96.0°F | 89.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 100.0°F | 97.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 87.0°F | 73.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 94.0°F | 100.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 100.0°F | 97.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 100.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |