Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.69 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.70 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 1.70 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.76 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 1.80 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.81 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.87 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 1.88 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.90 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 1.93 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.94 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.00 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.01 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.02 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.10 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.20 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.29 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.34 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.37 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.48 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.49 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.50 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.52 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.53 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.59 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.59 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.63 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.72 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.84 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.84 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 2.84 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.87 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.87 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.92 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.95 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.97 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 3.01 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.01 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 3.03 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 3.03 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 3.04 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.17 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 3.23 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.44 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.46 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.47 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 3.48 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.59 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 5.06 | 4.29 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |