Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.37 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 1.56 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 1.80 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 1.84 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.88 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 1.88 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.90 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 1.96 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.03 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.12 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.16 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.18 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.18 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.19 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.21 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.22 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.27 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.29 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.34 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 2.34 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.39 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.40 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.47 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.53 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.54 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.56 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.59 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.64 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.66 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.67 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.69 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.70 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.70 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.94 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.95 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.96 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 2.99 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 3.04 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 3.07 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 3.14 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 3.15 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 3.16 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.21 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.21 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 3.23 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.64 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.75 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 3.83 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 4.00 | 3.27 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 4.22 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |