Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.23 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 1.61 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.68 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 1.69 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.72 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.89 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.91 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 1.98 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.04 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.05 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.09 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.11 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.18 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.21 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.23 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.24 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.25 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.28 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.30 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.32 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.36 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.37 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.37 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.42 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.44 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.45 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.51 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.53 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.53 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.56 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.58 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.58 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.64 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.66 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.67 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.67 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.85 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.90 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.96 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 3.03 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 3.04 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.08 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 3.10 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.26 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.46 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.59 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.60 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.67 | 3.21 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 3.76 | 3.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.94 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 111.0°F | 110.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 96.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 78.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 102.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |