Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.55 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.66 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 1.81 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 1.81 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.82 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.85 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 1.87 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 1.88 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.92 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.99 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.02 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.06 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.11 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.24 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.27 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.27 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.28 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.32 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.34 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.35 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.36 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.39 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.45 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.45 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.48 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.51 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.63 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.64 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.68 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.81 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.81 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.82 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.85 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.86 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.86 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.88 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.91 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.91 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.96 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.98 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 3.06 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 3.21 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.22 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.35 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.41 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.42 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.43 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.45 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.71 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.81 | 3.28 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 103.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 88.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |