Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.62 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.68 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 1.80 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 1.87 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 1.87 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.91 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.91 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.94 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 1.96 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 1.97 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.97 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.01 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.12 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.21 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.22 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.24 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.24 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.28 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.32 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.35 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.39 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.41 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.42 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.42 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.43 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.45 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.65 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.68 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.68 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.75 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.76 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.77 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.80 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.82 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.83 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.84 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.86 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.89 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.92 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.95 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 3.13 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.31 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.31 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.32 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.41 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.51 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.56 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 3.62 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.65 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.79 | -2.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 61.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 76.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 65.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 96.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |