Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.41 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.64 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 1.69 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 1.84 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.96 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 1.98 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.05 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.08 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.13 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.14 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.20 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.22 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.23 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.25 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.25 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.29 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.31 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.31 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.32 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.33 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.34 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.39 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.42 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.42 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.44 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.47 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.47 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.48 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.50 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.51 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.52 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.56 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 2.63 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.66 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.72 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.78 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.80 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.82 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.87 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.97 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.04 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.07 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 3.07 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.09 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 3.09 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 3.17 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.28 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.32 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.37 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.49 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 106.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |