Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.33 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.83 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 1.95 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.95 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 1.97 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.18 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.22 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.35 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.35 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.45 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.46 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.46 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.52 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.53 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.55 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.57 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.61 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.62 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.63 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.67 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.80 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.82 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.85 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.89 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.90 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.95 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.95 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 3.03 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.09 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.11 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.11 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 3.21 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.22 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.23 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.28 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.35 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.39 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 3.42 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.62 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 3.67 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 3.71 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.71 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.82 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.86 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 4.14 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 4.15 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 4.36 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 4.39 | 3.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 4.92 | 4.35 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 6.25 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 64.0°F | 71.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 36.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 73.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |