Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
3333
160032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.69°
3284 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-17 00:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 66 1.11 0.62 30.9
Raleigh NC 66 1.21 -0.06 30.9
Columbus OH 65 1.32 0.80 30.6
Honolulu HI 66 1.41 0.35 30.9
Tallahassee FL 66 1.42 -0.06 30.9
Jackson MS 66 1.42 -0.24 30.9
Cheyenne WY 65 1.42 0.34 30.6
Annapolis MD 66 1.61 0.30 30.9
Juneau AK 66 1.68 0.86 30.9
Little Rock AR 66 1.77 0.26 30.9
Jefferson City MO 66 1.82 0.79 30.9
Indianapolis IN 66 1.85 1.12 30.9
Harrisburg PA 65 1.85 0.98 30.6
Madison WI 65 1.85 1.20 30.6
Nashville TN 65 1.94 0.22 30.6
Montgomery AL 66 1.97 -0.39 30.9
Frankfort KY 66 2.00 0.52 30.9
Des Moines IA 66 2.03 0.70 30.9
Sacramento CA 66 2.05 -0.53 30.9
Salt Lake City UT 65 2.14 0.05 30.6
Bismarck ND 66 2.17 1.92 30.9
Richmond VA 65 2.37 2.03 30.6
Atlanta GA 66 2.39 -1.67 30.9
Topeka KS 66 2.58 2.48 30.9
Boise ID 66 2.59 1.29 30.9
Pierre SD 65 2.60 2.57 30.6
Dover DE 66 2.65 0.65 30.9
Springfield IL 66 2.68 2.35 30.9
Salem OR 65 2.86 2.40 30.6
Lansing MI 66 2.89 2.44 30.9
Helena MT 66 2.91 1.58 30.9
Trenton NJ 66 2.91 2.48 30.9
Santa Fe NM 66 2.98 -1.26 30.9
Charleston WV 65 3.06 3.06 30.6
Denver CO 66 3.11 2.56 30.9
Saint Paul MN 66 3.15 2.94 30.9
Oklahoma City OK 65 3.43 1.92 30.6
Hartford CT 66 3.45 2.45 30.9
Columbia SC 65 3.48 -3.48 30.6
Olympia WA 65 3.49 0.29 30.6
Phoenix AZ 66 3.50 2.38 30.9
Lincoln NE 66 3.71 3.71 30.9
Carson City NV 66 3.79 2.94 30.9
Austin TX 65 3.82 3.38 30.6
Providence RI 65 3.98 3.92 30.6
Augusta ME 66 4.14 2.47 30.9
Boston MA 66 4.21 3.55 30.9
Concord NH 66 5.14 4.50 30.9
Albany NY 66 5.30 4.15 30.9
Montpelier VT 65 5.46 3.06 30.6

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 91.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 16:00 AKDT Juneau AK 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 17:00 MST Phoenix AZ 99.0°F 101.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Little Rock AR 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 17:00 PDT Sacramento CA 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 18:00 MDT Denver CO 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Hartford CT 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Dover DE 90.0°F 93.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 87.0°F 76.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 14:00 HST Honolulu HI 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 18:00 MDT Boise ID 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Springfield IL 88.0°F 81.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Des Moines IA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Topeka KS 89.0°F 73.0°F +16.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Frankfort KY 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Augusta ME 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Annapolis MD 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Boston MA 83.0°F 76.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Lansing MI 89.0°F 81.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Jackson MS 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 86.0°F 79.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 18:00 MDT Helena MT 88.0°F 80.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Lincoln NE 92.0°F 81.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 17:00 PDT Carson City NV 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Concord NH 77.0°F 71.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Trenton NJ 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 18:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Albany NY 82.0°F 74.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Raleigh NC 92.0°F 92.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Bismarck ND 97.0°F 101.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Columbus OH 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 19:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 74.0°F +14.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 17:00 PDT Salem OR 76.0°F 68.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Providence RI 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 20:00 EDT Columbia SC 86.0°F 92.0°F -6.0° 48.0