Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.37 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.53 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.67 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.72 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 1.83 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.85 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.87 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.90 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 1.92 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.96 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 1.97 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.12 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.16 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.21 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.25 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.25 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.28 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.28 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.33 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.36 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.37 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.39 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.42 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.44 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.44 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.45 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.47 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.47 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.50 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.52 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.58 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.63 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.64 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.71 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.71 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.93 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.95 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 3.05 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.05 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 3.13 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.13 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 3.21 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.37 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.43 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.87 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.93 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.94 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 4.05 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 4.12 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 4.77 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 55.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 51.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 62.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 33.0°F | 35.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 30.0°F | 29.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 37.0°F | 35.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 40.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 36.0°F | 40.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |