Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.10 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.39 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.45 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.75 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.84 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.05 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.10 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.12 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.13 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.16 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.17 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.20 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.24 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.32 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.32 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.34 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.36 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.37 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.38 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.41 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.44 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.46 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.53 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.57 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.64 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.65 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.71 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.72 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.79 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.80 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.90 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.90 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.95 | -2.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.97 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.02 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 3.15 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 3.21 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.36 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.37 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 3.37 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.50 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.54 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.57 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.57 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.71 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.93 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 4.02 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 4.12 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 36.0°F | 34.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 42.0°F | 51.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 49.0°F | 55.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 33.0°F | 38.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 45.0°F | 55.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 40.0°F | 47.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 32.0°F | 29.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 36.0°F | 37.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 36.0°F | 38.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |