Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.61 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.74 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.75 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.76 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.89 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 1.98 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.03 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.11 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.13 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.15 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.20 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.20 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.24 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.26 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.31 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.36 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.36 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.37 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.42 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.43 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.43 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.54 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.58 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.59 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.65 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.65 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.67 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.70 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.70 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.71 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.76 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.81 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.83 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.89 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.95 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.98 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.98 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 3.00 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.09 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 3.10 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.26 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.34 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.34 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.34 | 3.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.38 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 3.43 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.43 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.77 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.89 | 3.42 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 4.87 | 4.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 105.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 81.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |