Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.32 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 1.60 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.66 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.67 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.67 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 1.85 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.97 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.97 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 1.98 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.01 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.02 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.06 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.12 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.17 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.19 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.22 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.25 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.26 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.31 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.33 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.33 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.35 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.44 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.46 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.47 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.49 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.55 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.55 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.57 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.61 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.66 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.66 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.67 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.67 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.70 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.78 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.80 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.87 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.89 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.02 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 3.02 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.03 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.13 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.28 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.31 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.39 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.42 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.56 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.63 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 3.80 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 100.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 73.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 73.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |