Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.34 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.81 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 1.85 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 1.87 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.94 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.19 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.39 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.45 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.47 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.50 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.50 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.53 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.53 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.58 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.58 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.61 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.62 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.63 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.65 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.65 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.67 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.71 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.73 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.75 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.81 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.85 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.91 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 3.02 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.03 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.06 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.16 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 3.21 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.23 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 3.23 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.26 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.29 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.33 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.36 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.39 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.56 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 3.59 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 3.74 | 3.42 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.76 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.83 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 3.85 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.91 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 3.94 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 4.09 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 4.48 | 3.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 5.71 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 35.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 60.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 33.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 47.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 37.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 47.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 70.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |