Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.40 | 0.19 | 45.3 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.66 | -0.78 | 45.3 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.83 | -0.21 | 45.3 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 1.86 | 0.99 | 45.3 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.89 | -1.14 | 45.3 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.96 | 0.71 | 45.1 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.04 | 0.37 | 45.3 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.04 | 0.28 | 45.3 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.11 | 1.06 | 45.1 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.18 | -0.84 | 45.3 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.20 | 1.84 | 45.3 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.21 | 0.91 | 45.3 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.22 | 1.18 | 45.1 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.24 | 1.17 | 45.3 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.32 | 0.17 | 45.3 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.37 | 0.56 | 45.1 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.40 | 0.08 | 45.3 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.42 | 1.16 | 45.3 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.45 | 0.34 | 45.1 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.48 | 1.10 | 45.1 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.58 | 1.84 | 45.3 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.61 | 1.18 | 45.3 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.66 | 1.87 | 45.1 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.67 | 1.53 | 45.3 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.67 | 1.98 | 45.3 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.68 | 2.19 | 45.3 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.69 | 2.41 | 45.3 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.70 | 1.22 | 45.1 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.75 | 0.85 | 45.3 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.84 | 2.61 | 45.3 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.87 | 1.87 | 45.3 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.93 | 1.92 | 45.3 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.97 | 1.76 | 45.1 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.99 | 1.02 | 45.3 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.99 | 2.06 | 45.1 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.01 | 1.21 | 45.3 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.01 | 0.70 | 45.3 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.02 | -1.53 | 45.1 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 3.12 | -2.79 | 45.1 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.16 | 0.04 | 45.1 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.30 | -1.57 | 45.3 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 3.42 | 2.44 | 45.3 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.43 | 3.04 | 45.1 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 3.51 | 2.21 | 45.3 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.57 | 3.00 | 45.3 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.59 | 2.61 | 45.3 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.67 | 0.89 | 45.3 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 3.87 | 3.77 | 45.3 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.91 | 1.11 | 45.1 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 4.01 | 3.94 | 45.1 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 89.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |