Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.36 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 1.83 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.85 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 1.86 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.94 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.18 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.42 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.43 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.49 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.51 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.52 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.54 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.54 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.58 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.61 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.63 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.64 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.65 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.65 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.67 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.67 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.70 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.73 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.75 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.81 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.84 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 3.02 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.08 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.09 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.16 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.18 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 3.24 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.25 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.25 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.25 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.32 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.33 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.43 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.43 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.55 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.73 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 3.75 | 3.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 3.81 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.81 | 3.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.93 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 3.95 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 4.05 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 4.49 | 3.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 5.47 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 65.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 66.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 40.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 50.0°F | +20.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 47.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |