Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.34 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.75 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 1.96 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.05 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.12 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.13 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.22 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.30 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.35 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.37 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.39 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.39 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.47 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.48 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.50 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.53 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.56 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.57 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.61 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.73 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.76 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.78 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.82 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.87 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.88 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.89 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.93 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 3.00 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.06 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 3.12 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.14 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.16 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.19 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.20 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.25 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.32 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 3.34 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.37 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.53 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 3.58 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.61 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.65 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.67 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.89 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.98 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.98 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 4.20 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 4.49 | 4.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 4.83 | 4.06 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 6.17 | 3.58 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 52.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 47.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 68.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |