Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.26 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.76 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.94 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 1.95 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.16 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.17 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.34 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.39 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.46 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.49 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.53 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.58 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.58 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.59 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.61 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.67 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.70 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.72 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.73 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.78 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.82 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.83 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.87 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.93 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.97 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.98 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.98 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 2.99 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 3.01 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.01 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 3.02 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 3.02 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.04 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 3.05 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.12 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.14 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.24 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 3.29 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.42 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.53 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 3.61 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 3.62 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.93 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.95 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 4.11 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 4.28 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 4.35 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 4.84 | 4.64 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 5.03 | 4.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 5.78 | 3.68 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 50.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 67.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 74.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 44.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |