Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.13 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.27 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 1.48 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 1.55 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.64 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 1.83 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 1.86 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.88 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.94 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 1.96 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.05 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.13 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.17 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.21 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.26 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.34 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.37 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.38 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.41 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.46 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.56 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.57 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.58 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.62 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.62 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.64 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.66 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.67 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.68 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.68 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.71 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.72 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.74 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.79 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.79 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 2.83 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.88 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.99 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.02 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.05 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 3.13 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.19 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 3.20 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 3.28 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.28 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 3.42 | -3.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.48 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 3.61 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.88 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 4.24 | -3.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |