Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.49 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.54 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.62 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 1.71 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.75 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.84 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.89 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.95 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.03 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.06 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.06 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.08 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.10 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.11 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.12 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.29 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.30 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.31 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.32 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.33 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.35 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.38 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.43 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.46 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.50 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.51 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.53 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.54 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.54 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.62 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.63 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.63 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.65 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.74 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.76 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.81 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.84 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.88 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.89 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.01 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.16 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.19 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 3.34 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.40 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 3.47 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.60 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.74 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.86 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.96 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 4.01 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 MST | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Hartford CT | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Dover DE | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 MST | Boise ID | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 44.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 52.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Jackson MS | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 MST | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 PST | Carson City NV | 32.0°F | 32.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 32.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Albany NY | 36.0°F | 39.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 PST | Salem OR | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Providence RI | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 EST | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |