Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
22533
1081632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.54°
8450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-02 00:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 169 1.33 -0.37 48.0
Honolulu HI 169 1.52 -1.19 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 169 1.60 0.89 48.0
Jackson MS 169 1.77 0.40 48.0
Salem OR 169 1.77 0.86 48.0
Providence RI 169 1.88 -0.44 48.0
Raleigh NC 169 1.92 0.80 48.0
Nashville TN 169 2.08 0.03 48.0
Little Rock AR 169 2.12 -1.02 48.0
Trenton NJ 169 2.12 -0.50 48.0
Annapolis MD 169 2.18 0.83 48.0
Carson City NV 169 2.18 1.47 48.0
Saint Paul MN 169 2.20 0.75 48.0
Atlanta GA 169 2.22 1.21 48.0
Sacramento CA 169 2.24 2.04 48.0
Boston MA 169 2.25 0.85 48.0
Harrisburg PA 169 2.27 -0.61 48.0
Charleston WV 169 2.27 1.30 48.0
Augusta ME 169 2.29 -1.52 48.0
Helena MT 169 2.30 0.05 48.0
Austin TX 169 2.36 2.35 48.0
Lansing MI 169 2.37 0.75 48.0
Lincoln NE 169 2.39 0.70 48.0
Hartford CT 169 2.44 -1.19 48.0
Jefferson City MO 169 2.47 0.89 48.0
Dover DE 169 2.54 -0.28 48.0
Des Moines IA 169 2.58 0.02 48.0
Indianapolis IN 169 2.62 1.27 48.0
Albany NY 169 2.62 0.14 48.0
Phoenix AZ 169 2.73 -0.27 48.0
Columbus OH 169 2.75 0.87 48.0
Springfield IL 169 2.80 2.05 48.0
Montpelier VT 169 2.82 1.60 48.0
Juneau AK 169 2.85 0.95 48.0
Madison WI 169 2.86 1.15 48.0
Olympia WA 169 2.88 -1.67 48.0
Montgomery AL 169 2.91 -0.24 48.0
Topeka KS 169 2.95 0.86 48.0
Columbia SC 169 2.95 -0.38 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 169 2.96 1.83 48.0
Pierre SD 169 3.06 2.05 48.0
Denver CO 169 3.08 1.79 48.0
Tallahassee FL 169 3.12 0.57 48.0
Concord NH 169 3.19 -1.26 48.0
Bismarck ND 169 3.21 1.12 48.0
Santa Fe NM 169 3.32 -1.71 48.0
Cheyenne WY 169 3.33 0.75 48.0
Boise ID 169 3.38 0.16 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 169 3.53 0.62 48.0
Frankfort KY 169 3.57 2.91 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Montgomery AL 80.0°F 90.0°F -10.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 AKDT Juneau AK 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 MST Phoenix AZ 114.0°F 114.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Little Rock AR 88.0°F 80.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 PDT Sacramento CA 102.0°F 100.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 18:00 MDT Denver CO 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Dover DE 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 84.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 14:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 18:00 MDT Boise ID 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Springfield IL 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Frankfort KY 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Augusta ME 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Annapolis MD 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Boston MA 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Lansing MI 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Jackson MS 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 18:00 MDT Helena MT 100.0°F 100.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Lincoln NE 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 PDT Carson City NV 98.0°F 97.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Concord NH 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Trenton NJ 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 18:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 76.0°F 82.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Raleigh NC 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Bismarck ND 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Columbus OH 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 PDT Salem OR 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Providence RI 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 EDT Columbia SC 85.0°F 75.0°F +10.0° 48.0