Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
69783
3349632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8900 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-10 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 178 1.13 0.33 48.0
Indianapolis IN 178 1.47 -0.17 48.0
Sacramento CA 178 1.65 -0.16 48.0
Honolulu HI 178 1.71 -0.95 48.0
Jefferson City MO 178 1.73 0.42 48.0
Albany NY 178 1.86 -0.68 48.0
Nashville TN 178 1.92 0.25 48.0
Columbus OH 178 1.96 0.73 48.0
Harrisburg PA 178 2.01 -0.14 48.0
Austin TX 178 2.08 -0.11 48.0
Raleigh NC 178 2.09 -0.01 48.0
Salem OR 178 2.11 0.52 48.0
Columbia SC 178 2.11 0.33 48.0
Annapolis MD 178 2.13 -0.02 48.0
Trenton NJ 178 2.16 -1.39 48.0
Cheyenne WY 178 2.21 -0.45 48.0
Hartford CT 178 2.26 -1.22 48.0
Lansing MI 178 2.29 1.46 48.0
Charleston WV 178 2.33 1.74 48.0
Augusta ME 178 2.37 -0.06 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 178 2.38 1.26 48.0
Jackson MS 178 2.39 1.60 48.0
Providence RI 178 2.42 -2.23 48.0
Dover DE 178 2.46 -1.20 48.0
Richmond VA 178 2.47 0.87 48.0
Topeka KS 178 2.52 1.72 48.0
Frankfort KY 178 2.52 1.33 48.0
Saint Paul MN 178 2.53 0.21 48.0
Lincoln NE 178 2.56 1.94 48.0
Atlanta GA 178 2.66 1.12 48.0
Madison WI 178 2.80 1.63 48.0
Boston MA 178 2.87 0.25 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 178 2.89 1.30 48.0
Des Moines IA 178 2.90 1.51 48.0
Juneau AK 178 2.97 -0.20 48.0
Helena MT 178 3.02 -1.40 48.0
Concord NH 178 3.07 -0.38 48.0
Bismarck ND 178 3.08 1.30 48.0
Tallahassee FL 178 3.12 -1.82 48.0
Carson City NV 178 3.12 -1.39 48.0
Montpelier VT 178 3.12 0.53 48.0
Phoenix AZ 178 3.18 -2.82 48.0
Denver CO 178 3.28 0.92 48.0
Montgomery AL 178 3.29 0.48 48.0
Olympia WA 178 3.29 -0.24 48.0
Springfield IL 178 3.48 3.34 48.0
Santa Fe NM 178 3.59 -2.58 48.0
Boise ID 178 3.69 1.25 48.0
Pierre SD 178 3.89 1.86 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 178 3.91 -3.27 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 43.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 03:00 MDT Denver CO 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 03:00 MDT Boise ID 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 03:00 MDT Helena MT 54.0°F 58.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Concord NH 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 02:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0