Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.49 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.54 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.54 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.59 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.74 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.80 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.81 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.86 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.01 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.12 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.17 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.18 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.19 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.25 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.32 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.32 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.35 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.39 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.40 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.49 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.51 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.58 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.60 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.66 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.69 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.69 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.69 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.77 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.80 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.84 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.85 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.98 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.98 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.02 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.05 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.15 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 3.21 | -2.87 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 3.26 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.27 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.33 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 3.38 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.41 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 3.45 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.57 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.58 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 3.62 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.81 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 4.10 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 4.12 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 4.15 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 31.0°F | 25.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 35.0°F | 38.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 52.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 27.0°F | 33.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 46.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 34.0°F | 32.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 32.0°F | 26.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |