Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
15533
745632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
8650 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-27 04:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Providence RI 173 1.49 -0.13 48.0
Honolulu HI 173 1.51 -0.92 48.0
Augusta ME 173 1.62 -0.41 48.0
Hartford CT 173 1.79 0.06 48.0
Little Rock AR 173 1.87 -0.29 48.0
Jackson MS 173 1.92 1.17 48.0
Trenton NJ 173 1.93 0.22 48.0
Austin TX 173 1.95 1.33 48.0
Tallahassee FL 173 1.97 -0.09 48.0
Concord NH 173 1.99 0.60 48.0
Charleston WV 173 1.99 -0.50 48.0
Atlanta GA 173 2.04 0.45 48.0
Albany NY 173 2.05 0.57 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 173 2.13 1.60 48.0
Harrisburg PA 173 2.19 -0.26 48.0
Indianapolis IN 173 2.23 0.51 48.0
Columbus OH 173 2.24 1.22 48.0
Lansing MI 173 2.27 0.98 48.0
Dover DE 173 2.33 0.58 48.0
Boston MA 173 2.38 1.09 48.0
Richmond VA 173 2.38 0.51 48.0
Helena MT 173 2.49 1.34 48.0
Jefferson City MO 173 2.52 0.73 48.0
Nashville TN 173 2.57 0.39 48.0
Annapolis MD 173 2.58 1.11 48.0
Montgomery AL 173 2.61 1.12 48.0
Raleigh NC 173 2.65 0.82 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 173 2.66 -1.76 48.0
Springfield IL 173 2.77 2.39 48.0
Juneau AK 173 2.82 0.69 48.0
Topeka KS 173 2.82 0.82 48.0
Columbia SC 173 2.83 -1.95 48.0
Carson City NV 173 2.84 1.01 48.0
Santa Fe NM 173 2.92 -0.91 48.0
Cheyenne WY 173 2.93 -0.24 48.0
Saint Paul MN 173 2.96 2.28 48.0
Des Moines IA 173 3.06 1.24 48.0
Madison WI 173 3.06 1.92 48.0
Sacramento CA 173 3.12 0.66 48.0
Salem OR 173 3.12 1.17 48.0
Montpelier VT 173 3.24 1.28 48.0
Olympia WA 173 3.27 -1.60 48.0
Boise ID 173 3.32 2.73 48.0
Frankfort KY 173 3.38 2.47 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 173 3.43 2.92 48.0
Denver CO 173 3.45 0.90 48.0
Phoenix AZ 173 3.49 -0.31 48.0
Lincoln NE 173 3.54 1.91 48.0
Bismarck ND 173 3.81 2.99 48.0
Pierre SD 173 4.45 3.59 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 20:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 MST Phoenix AZ 102.0°F 105.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 PDT Sacramento CA 79.0°F 73.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 MDT Denver CO 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Hartford CT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 18:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 MDT Boise ID 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Springfield IL 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Des Moines IA 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Topeka KS 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Frankfort KY 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Augusta ME 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Boston MA 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Lansing MI 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 MDT Helena MT 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Lincoln NE 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 PDT Carson City NV 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Raleigh NC 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Bismarck ND 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Columbus OH 76.0°F 69.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 83.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 PDT Salem OR 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Providence RI 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 EDT Columbia SC 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0