Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.63 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.65 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.80 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.81 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 1.85 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.87 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 1.89 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 1.93 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 1.93 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.95 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.96 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.97 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 1.98 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.99 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.11 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.20 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.20 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.22 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.22 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.35 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.36 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.41 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.41 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.45 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.56 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.64 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.67 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.67 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.75 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.78 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.80 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.81 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.84 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.87 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.88 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.93 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.99 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.07 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 3.16 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.16 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.16 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.16 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.25 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.33 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.41 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.49 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.53 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 3.55 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.72 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.91 | -3.04 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 74.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |