Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.11 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.28 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 1.53 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 1.56 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.70 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 1.80 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.85 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 1.85 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 1.96 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.01 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.09 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.12 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.23 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.27 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.28 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.32 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.34 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.35 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.42 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.44 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.53 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.54 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.58 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.60 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.61 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.62 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.63 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.63 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.63 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.69 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.69 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.72 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.75 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.84 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.85 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.85 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.89 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.01 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.05 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 3.11 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.18 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.19 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.20 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 3.22 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.27 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.45 | -3.22 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.46 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 3.56 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.81 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 4.17 | -3.78 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 64.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 92.0°F | 84.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 78.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 60.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 93.0°F | 86.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |