Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre SD | 11 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 6.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 12 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 6.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 12 | 0.75 | -0.58 | 6.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 12 | 0.83 | 0.17 | 6.5 |
| Columbus OH | 11 | 0.91 | 0.00 | 6.0 |
| Richmond VA | 11 | 0.91 | 0.36 | 6.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 11 | 0.91 | -0.55 | 6.0 |
| Nashville TN | 11 | 1.00 | -0.27 | 6.0 |
| Juneau AK | 12 | 1.08 | 0.58 | 6.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 12 | 1.17 | 0.83 | 6.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 12 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 6.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 12 | 1.25 | 0.08 | 6.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 12 | 1.25 | -0.25 | 6.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 12 | 1.25 | 0.58 | 6.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 12 | 1.25 | 1.08 | 6.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 11 | 1.27 | 0.18 | 6.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 12 | 1.33 | 0.83 | 6.5 |
| Topeka KS | 12 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 6.5 |
| Salem OR | 11 | 1.36 | -0.09 | 6.0 |
| Providence RI | 11 | 1.36 | 1.00 | 6.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 12 | 1.42 | -0.08 | 6.5 |
| Helena MT | 12 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 6.5 |
| Columbia SC | 11 | 1.55 | -1.55 | 6.0 |
| Charleston WV | 11 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 6.0 |
| Springfield IL | 12 | 1.58 | 0.75 | 6.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 12 | 1.58 | 0.58 | 6.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 12 | 1.67 | -1.67 | 6.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 11 | 1.82 | 0.73 | 6.0 |
| Madison WI | 11 | 1.82 | 0.00 | 6.0 |
| Boston MA | 12 | 1.92 | 1.58 | 6.5 |
| Lansing MI | 12 | 1.92 | 1.42 | 6.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 12 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 6.5 |
| Hartford CT | 12 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 6.5 |
| Jackson MS | 12 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 6.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 11 | 2.00 | -1.27 | 6.0 |
| Austin TX | 11 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 6.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 12 | 2.33 | -2.33 | 6.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 12 | 2.42 | 2.42 | 6.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 12 | 2.58 | -2.42 | 6.5 |
| Dover DE | 12 | 2.92 | 1.42 | 6.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 12 | 3.33 | -3.33 | 6.5 |
| Augusta ME | 12 | 3.50 | 3.33 | 6.5 |
| Boise ID | 12 | 3.67 | 1.50 | 6.5 |
| Carson City NV | 12 | 4.42 | 4.25 | 6.5 |
| Concord NH | 12 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 6.5 |
| Denver CO | 12 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 6.5 |
| Olympia WA | 11 | 5.36 | 3.00 | 6.0 |
| Albany NY | 12 | 5.50 | 4.00 | 6.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 11 | 5.82 | 4.91 | 6.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 12 | 8.33 | 8.33 | 6.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 95.0°F | +6.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 72.0°F | +11.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 90.0°F | 81.0°F | +9.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 94.0°F | 86.0°F | +8.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 98.0°F | 92.0°F | +6.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 94.0°F | 85.0°F | +9.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 97.0°F | 86.0°F | +11.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 12.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 11.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 11.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 11.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 11.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 92.0°F | 86.0°F | +6.0° | 11.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 11.0 |