Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.36 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.47 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.65 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.70 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.77 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.81 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.83 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.87 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 1.89 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 1.97 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.04 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.09 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.11 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.21 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.22 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.25 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.28 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.31 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.35 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.40 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.44 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.44 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.44 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.50 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.52 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.55 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.55 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.59 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.59 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.61 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.63 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.65 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.76 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.79 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.83 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.84 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.86 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.93 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.05 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.11 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.28 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.35 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 3.39 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.43 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.71 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.84 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 4.01 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 4.08 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 4.27 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 4.99 | 3.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 50.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 40.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 40.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |