Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.48 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.54 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.54 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.61 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.74 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.80 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.81 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.86 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.01 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.11 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.18 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.20 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.21 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.25 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.32 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.36 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.38 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.39 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.41 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.52 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.53 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.55 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.60 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.65 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.68 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.69 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.70 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.76 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.78 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.82 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.82 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.96 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.01 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.04 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.05 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.15 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 3.19 | -2.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 3.24 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.29 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.33 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 3.41 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.43 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 3.43 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.54 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.55 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 3.60 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.80 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 4.14 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 4.15 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 4.16 | 3.18 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 31.0°F | 26.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 36.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 36.0°F | 38.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 27.0°F | 33.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 35.0°F | 34.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 35.0°F | 32.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 41.0°F | 46.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |