Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.58 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.71 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.85 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.88 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 1.95 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 1.97 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 1.97 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.02 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.04 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.06 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.22 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.23 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.24 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.26 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.27 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.30 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.35 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.35 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.37 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.38 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.42 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.43 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.47 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.47 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.57 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.59 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.60 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.61 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.61 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.69 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.72 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.75 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.77 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.77 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.78 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.79 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.81 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.83 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.85 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.86 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 3.09 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.12 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.13 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 3.18 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.28 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 3.29 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.31 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.39 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.59 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 4.07 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 MST | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 MST | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 MST | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 PST | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 PST | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 EST | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |