Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 66 | 1.11 | 0.62 | 30.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 66 | 1.21 | -0.06 | 30.9 |
| Columbus OH | 65 | 1.32 | 0.80 | 30.6 |
| Honolulu HI | 66 | 1.41 | 0.35 | 30.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 66 | 1.42 | -0.06 | 30.9 |
| Jackson MS | 66 | 1.42 | -0.24 | 30.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 65 | 1.42 | 0.34 | 30.6 |
| Annapolis MD | 66 | 1.61 | 0.30 | 30.9 |
| Juneau AK | 66 | 1.68 | 0.86 | 30.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 66 | 1.77 | 0.26 | 30.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 66 | 1.82 | 0.79 | 30.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 66 | 1.85 | 1.12 | 30.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 65 | 1.85 | 0.98 | 30.6 |
| Madison WI | 65 | 1.85 | 1.20 | 30.6 |
| Nashville TN | 65 | 1.94 | 0.22 | 30.6 |
| Montgomery AL | 66 | 1.97 | -0.39 | 30.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 66 | 2.00 | 0.52 | 30.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 66 | 2.03 | 0.70 | 30.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 66 | 2.05 | -0.53 | 30.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 65 | 2.14 | 0.05 | 30.6 |
| Bismarck ND | 66 | 2.17 | 1.92 | 30.9 |
| Richmond VA | 65 | 2.37 | 2.03 | 30.6 |
| Atlanta GA | 66 | 2.39 | -1.67 | 30.9 |
| Topeka KS | 66 | 2.58 | 2.48 | 30.9 |
| Boise ID | 66 | 2.59 | 1.29 | 30.9 |
| Pierre SD | 65 | 2.60 | 2.57 | 30.6 |
| Dover DE | 66 | 2.65 | 0.65 | 30.9 |
| Springfield IL | 66 | 2.68 | 2.35 | 30.9 |
| Salem OR | 65 | 2.86 | 2.40 | 30.6 |
| Lansing MI | 66 | 2.89 | 2.44 | 30.9 |
| Helena MT | 66 | 2.91 | 1.58 | 30.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 66 | 2.91 | 2.48 | 30.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 66 | 2.98 | -1.26 | 30.9 |
| Charleston WV | 65 | 3.06 | 3.06 | 30.6 |
| Denver CO | 66 | 3.11 | 2.56 | 30.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 66 | 3.15 | 2.94 | 30.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 65 | 3.43 | 1.92 | 30.6 |
| Hartford CT | 66 | 3.45 | 2.45 | 30.9 |
| Columbia SC | 65 | 3.48 | -3.48 | 30.6 |
| Olympia WA | 65 | 3.49 | 0.29 | 30.6 |
| Phoenix AZ | 66 | 3.50 | 2.38 | 30.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 66 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 30.9 |
| Carson City NV | 66 | 3.79 | 2.94 | 30.9 |
| Austin TX | 65 | 3.82 | 3.38 | 30.6 |
| Providence RI | 65 | 3.98 | 3.92 | 30.6 |
| Augusta ME | 66 | 4.14 | 2.47 | 30.9 |
| Boston MA | 66 | 4.21 | 3.55 | 30.9 |
| Concord NH | 66 | 5.14 | 4.50 | 30.9 |
| Albany NY | 66 | 5.30 | 4.15 | 30.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 65 | 5.46 | 3.06 | 30.6 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 91.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 76.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 100.0°F | 97.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 73.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 89.0°F | 81.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 88.0°F | 80.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 81.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 82.0°F | 74.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 97.0°F | 101.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 74.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |