Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.72 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 1.74 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 1.78 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.79 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.88 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 1.96 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.03 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.03 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.03 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.04 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.04 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.08 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.10 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.11 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.16 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.19 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.21 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.22 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.23 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.25 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.26 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 2.27 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.27 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.28 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.28 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.28 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.36 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.42 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.44 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.45 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.46 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.51 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.67 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.68 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.72 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.75 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.84 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.84 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.85 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.86 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.87 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.93 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.95 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.03 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 3.04 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.11 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.20 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.22 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.61 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 3.78 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 41.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |