Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.54 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.59 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.69 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.86 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.89 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.95 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.02 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.04 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.04 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.16 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.21 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.22 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.24 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.24 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.24 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.25 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.30 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.30 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.30 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.31 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.32 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.32 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.33 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.38 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.41 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.42 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.43 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.44 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.47 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.48 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.57 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.58 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.58 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.60 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.62 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.65 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.68 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.78 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.81 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.82 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.83 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.84 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.95 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.69 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.71 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.75 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.85 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 4.13 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 4.17 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 5.04 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |