Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.44 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.50 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.75 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 1.83 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.87 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.89 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.01 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.09 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.14 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.19 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.24 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.33 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.43 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.43 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.45 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.46 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.49 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.49 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.51 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.54 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.57 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.62 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.64 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.64 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.66 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.72 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.78 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.80 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.91 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.91 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.97 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.97 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.07 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 3.09 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.23 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.23 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.27 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.28 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.30 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.33 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 3.34 | -3.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 3.39 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.39 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 3.42 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.56 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 3.72 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.80 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 3.98 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 4.21 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 4.28 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 31.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 32.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 38.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 31.0°F | 32.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 40.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 35.0°F | 34.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |