Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.45 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.62 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 1.64 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 1.87 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.92 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.08 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.08 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.12 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.13 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.15 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.15 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.18 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.23 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.24 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.26 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.27 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.27 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.29 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.29 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.35 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.37 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.38 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.40 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.41 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.43 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.47 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.48 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.53 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.53 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.55 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.55 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.62 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.65 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.65 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.66 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.74 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.83 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.83 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.91 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.97 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.98 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.98 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.01 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 3.02 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.06 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 3.07 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.26 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.28 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.46 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.48 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 97.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |