Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.31 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.54 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 1.66 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.73 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 1.84 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 1.88 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.95 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.00 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.06 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.07 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.09 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.14 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.15 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.16 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.17 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.18 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.20 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.23 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.29 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.34 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.38 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.42 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.46 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.51 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.52 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.52 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.53 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.61 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.63 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.65 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.66 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.72 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.74 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.84 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.86 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.86 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.86 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.92 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.95 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.01 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 3.04 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 3.06 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.18 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.19 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.26 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.28 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.29 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.49 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.52 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 3.90 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 67.0°F | 57.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 110.0°F | 113.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 95.0°F | 101.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 65.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 90.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 98.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |