Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.40 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 1.48 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.87 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.92 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.93 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.00 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.01 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.05 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.11 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.13 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.16 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.19 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.24 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.26 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.29 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.31 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.32 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.41 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.41 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.42 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.47 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.48 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.49 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.50 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.51 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.56 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.62 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.63 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.67 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.67 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.70 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.71 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.71 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.71 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.78 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.83 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.93 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.95 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.96 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.03 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.20 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.22 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.34 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.46 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.70 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.74 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 4.04 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 4.21 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 4.36 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 4.39 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |