Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.49 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.53 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.62 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.69 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.77 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.84 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.90 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.94 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.00 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.06 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.07 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.08 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.10 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.11 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.13 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.27 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.31 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.31 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.32 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.34 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.38 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.39 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.40 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.47 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.48 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.50 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.52 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.55 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.55 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.61 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.64 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.64 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.66 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.73 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.77 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.85 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.86 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.89 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.90 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.03 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.18 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.20 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 3.34 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.38 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.49 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.62 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.77 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.88 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 4.00 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 4.03 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 MST | Denver CO | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Hartford CT | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Dover DE | 43.0°F | 35.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 MST | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Boston MA | 44.0°F | 52.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 MST | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 PST | Carson City NV | 34.0°F | 34.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Concord NH | 36.0°F | 32.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Albany NY | 38.0°F | 42.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 01:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 PST | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Providence RI | 42.0°F | 50.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 02:00 EST | Columbia SC | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |