Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.54 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.66 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.71 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.72 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.85 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 1.90 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 1.93 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.02 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 2.02 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.05 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.09 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.12 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.20 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.23 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.28 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.28 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.28 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.29 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.34 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.35 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.36 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.40 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.42 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.46 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.47 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.53 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.56 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.57 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.64 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.64 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.72 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.75 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.78 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.79 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.82 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.88 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 2.90 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.91 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.92 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.92 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.93 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.00 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.14 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.65 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.66 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.72 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.72 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.77 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.86 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 4.68 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |