Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.37 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.46 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.65 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 1.67 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 1.76 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 1.77 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.84 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 1.92 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 1.96 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.07 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.15 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.16 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.16 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.25 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.27 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.31 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.35 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.36 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.37 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.41 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.41 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.47 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.53 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.54 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.55 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 2.55 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.57 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.57 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 2.58 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.64 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.69 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.79 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.81 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.82 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.84 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.84 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.97 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 3.08 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.15 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.27 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.33 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 3.46 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.48 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.57 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.75 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.96 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 4.14 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 4.19 | 3.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 5.10 | 4.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 34.0°F | 38.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 57.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 51.0°F | 57.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 38.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 53.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 43.0°F | 48.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 39.0°F | 47.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |