Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.13 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.29 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 1.47 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 1.57 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.68 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 1.86 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 1.87 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.92 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.97 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 1.98 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.02 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.20 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.21 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.21 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.28 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.36 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.39 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.40 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.41 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.47 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.56 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.58 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.61 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.61 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.62 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.63 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.67 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.68 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.71 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.72 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.73 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.77 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.78 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.79 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.80 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 2.82 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.85 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.95 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.98 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.04 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.16 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 3.21 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.29 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.30 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.30 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.34 | -3.09 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.49 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 3.68 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.93 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 4.37 | -4.10 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 101.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 65.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |