Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.46 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.55 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.62 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.65 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.72 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.76 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.79 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.94 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.01 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.01 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.05 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.12 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.13 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.15 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.22 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.24 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.29 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.32 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.38 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.39 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.40 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.47 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.48 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.54 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.54 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.55 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.60 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.61 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.66 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.69 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.70 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.74 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.93 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.97 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.98 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.98 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 3.01 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 3.03 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 3.25 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 3.28 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.30 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 3.38 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.47 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.49 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.51 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.64 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 4.05 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 4.16 | 3.23 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 4.23 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 4.88 | 3.93 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 37.0°F | 32.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 57.0°F | +18.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 51.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 61.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |