Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
21933
1052832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
9050 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-01 12:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 181 1.38 -1.01 48.0
Richmond VA 181 1.50 -0.33 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 181 1.63 0.85 48.0
Jackson MS 181 1.72 0.56 48.0
Providence RI 181 1.84 -0.38 48.0
Salem OR 181 1.87 1.06 48.0
Charleston WV 181 2.01 0.94 48.0
Little Rock AR 181 2.03 -1.03 48.0
Carson City NV 181 2.03 1.18 48.0
Lansing MI 181 2.12 0.56 48.0
Atlanta GA 181 2.13 1.42 48.0
Helena MT 181 2.14 -0.04 48.0
Trenton NJ 181 2.14 -0.44 48.0
Austin TX 181 2.17 2.16 48.0
Sacramento CA 181 2.20 1.92 48.0
Raleigh NC 181 2.21 1.24 48.0
Augusta ME 181 2.22 -1.44 48.0
Boston MA 181 2.22 0.96 48.0
Harrisburg PA 181 2.24 -0.89 48.0
Annapolis MD 181 2.27 0.78 48.0
Jefferson City MO 181 2.28 0.41 48.0
Hartford CT 181 2.40 -0.77 48.0
Nashville TN 181 2.44 0.29 48.0
Saint Paul MN 181 2.46 1.17 48.0
Dover DE 181 2.50 -0.23 48.0
Columbia SC 181 2.54 -0.77 48.0
Albany NY 181 2.55 0.38 48.0
Lincoln NE 181 2.56 0.44 48.0
Montgomery AL 181 2.64 0.02 48.0
Springfield IL 181 2.64 1.90 48.0
Columbus OH 181 2.64 0.95 48.0
Tallahassee FL 181 2.66 0.18 48.0
Des Moines IA 181 2.67 0.14 48.0
Olympia WA 181 2.82 -1.64 48.0
Indianapolis IN 181 2.84 1.61 48.0
Phoenix AZ 181 2.91 -0.64 48.0
Madison WI 181 2.92 1.02 48.0
Concord NH 181 2.95 -0.92 48.0
Juneau AK 181 2.99 0.99 48.0
Topeka KS 181 3.00 0.58 48.0
Montpelier VT 181 3.07 1.88 48.0
Santa Fe NM 181 3.10 -1.57 48.0
Pierre SD 181 3.17 1.82 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 181 3.22 2.04 48.0
Denver CO 181 3.27 1.71 48.0
Boise ID 181 3.28 0.48 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 181 3.40 0.54 48.0
Bismarck ND 181 3.43 1.71 48.0
Cheyenne WY 181 3.44 0.30 48.0
Frankfort KY 181 3.83 3.08 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Montgomery AL 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 97.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Little Rock AR 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 06:00 MDT Denver CO 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 06:00 MDT Boise ID 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Springfield IL 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Des Moines IA 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Topeka KS 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Frankfort KY 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Augusta ME 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Annapolis MD 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 06:00 MDT Helena MT 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Lincoln NE 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 PDT Carson City NV 62.0°F 57.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 71.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Trenton NJ 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 06:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Raleigh NC 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Bismarck ND 64.0°F 58.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 61.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Providence RI 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 08:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0