Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
22183
1064832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.52°
9300 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-01 17:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 186 1.39 -1.03 48.0
Richmond VA 186 1.48 -0.34 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 186 1.63 0.87 48.0
Jackson MS 186 1.71 0.51 48.0
Salem OR 186 1.83 1.02 48.0
Providence RI 186 1.84 -0.39 48.0
Little Rock AR 186 2.01 -1.03 48.0
Charleston WV 186 2.08 1.05 48.0
Trenton NJ 186 2.09 -0.42 48.0
Carson City NV 186 2.12 1.30 48.0
Atlanta GA 186 2.17 1.48 48.0
Austin TX 186 2.17 2.16 48.0
Lansing MI 186 2.18 0.66 48.0
Augusta ME 186 2.19 -1.43 48.0
Raleigh NC 186 2.20 1.16 48.0
Boston MA 186 2.21 0.92 48.0
Harrisburg PA 186 2.21 -0.84 48.0
Sacramento CA 186 2.22 1.95 48.0
Helena MT 186 2.22 0.10 48.0
Annapolis MD 186 2.27 0.82 48.0
Jefferson City MO 186 2.33 0.51 48.0
Hartford CT 186 2.38 -0.79 48.0
Nashville TN 186 2.40 0.31 48.0
Saint Paul MN 186 2.43 1.11 48.0
Dover DE 186 2.46 -0.26 48.0
Columbia SC 186 2.49 -0.74 48.0
Lincoln NE 186 2.51 0.44 48.0
Albany NY 186 2.53 0.32 48.0
Montgomery AL 186 2.61 0.06 48.0
Springfield IL 186 2.63 1.91 48.0
Des Moines IA 186 2.63 0.17 48.0
Columbus OH 186 2.63 0.91 48.0
Tallahassee FL 186 2.75 0.27 48.0
Olympia WA 186 2.78 -1.63 48.0
Indianapolis IN 186 2.80 1.55 48.0
Phoenix AZ 186 2.87 -0.65 48.0
Juneau AK 186 2.94 0.99 48.0
Topeka KS 186 2.95 0.53 48.0
Madison WI 186 2.95 1.10 48.0
Concord NH 186 2.98 -1.01 48.0
Montpelier VT 186 3.05 1.89 48.0
Santa Fe NM 186 3.08 -1.48 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 186 3.15 2.01 48.0
Pierre SD 186 3.17 1.86 48.0
Denver CO 186 3.24 1.73 48.0
Boise ID 186 3.27 0.38 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 186 3.34 0.52 48.0
Bismarck ND 186 3.39 1.72 48.0
Cheyenne WY 186 3.41 0.24 48.0
Frankfort KY 186 3.75 2.99 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Montgomery AL 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 09:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 10:00 MST Phoenix AZ 103.0°F 104.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Little Rock AR 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 10:00 PDT Sacramento CA 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 11:00 MDT Denver CO 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Hartford CT 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Dover DE 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 84.0°F 76.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Atlanta GA 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 07:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 11:00 MDT Boise ID 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Springfield IL 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Des Moines IA 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Topeka KS 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Frankfort KY 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Augusta ME 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Annapolis MD 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Boston MA 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Lansing MI 76.0°F 70.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Jackson MS 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 11:00 MDT Helena MT 82.0°F 76.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Lincoln NE 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 10:00 PDT Carson City NV 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Concord NH 83.0°F 88.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Trenton NJ 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 11:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Albany NY 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Raleigh NC 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Bismarck ND 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Columbus OH 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 12:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 10:00 PDT Salem OR 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Providence RI 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 EDT Columbia SC 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0