Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 51 | 0.92 | 0.37 | 25.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 51 | 1.16 | -0.33 | 25.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 51 | 1.18 | -0.43 | 25.9 |
| Columbus OH | 50 | 1.24 | 0.60 | 25.4 |
| Jefferson City MO | 51 | 1.25 | 0.31 | 25.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 51 | 1.37 | -0.47 | 25.9 |
| Jackson MS | 51 | 1.43 | -0.18 | 25.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 50 | 1.44 | 0.28 | 25.4 |
| Honolulu HI | 51 | 1.49 | 0.59 | 25.9 |
| Nashville TN | 50 | 1.68 | 0.00 | 25.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 50 | 1.74 | 0.70 | 25.4 |
| Juneau AK | 51 | 1.75 | 1.39 | 25.9 |
| Richmond VA | 50 | 1.80 | 1.36 | 25.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 51 | 1.88 | 0.12 | 25.9 |
| Lansing MI | 51 | 1.88 | 1.29 | 25.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 51 | 1.92 | 1.02 | 25.9 |
| Madison WI | 50 | 1.92 | 1.08 | 25.4 |
| Little Rock AR | 51 | 1.96 | 0.59 | 25.9 |
| Salem OR | 50 | 1.96 | 1.36 | 25.4 |
| Des Moines IA | 51 | 1.98 | 0.65 | 25.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 50 | 2.00 | 0.20 | 25.4 |
| Frankfort KY | 51 | 2.04 | 0.31 | 25.9 |
| Topeka KS | 51 | 2.10 | 2.06 | 25.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 51 | 2.20 | -1.02 | 25.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 51 | 2.31 | 2.31 | 25.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 51 | 2.41 | 1.86 | 25.9 |
| Dover DE | 51 | 2.43 | 0.04 | 25.9 |
| Springfield IL | 51 | 2.43 | 2.04 | 25.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 51 | 2.47 | -2.16 | 25.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 50 | 2.62 | 0.66 | 25.4 |
| Pierre SD | 50 | 2.64 | 2.60 | 25.4 |
| Boise ID | 51 | 2.82 | 2.08 | 25.9 |
| Helena MT | 51 | 2.96 | 1.67 | 25.9 |
| Charleston WV | 50 | 2.98 | 2.98 | 25.4 |
| Denver CO | 51 | 3.12 | 2.65 | 25.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 51 | 3.18 | 2.98 | 25.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 51 | 3.20 | -1.24 | 25.9 |
| Olympia WA | 50 | 3.24 | -0.92 | 25.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 51 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 25.9 |
| Hartford CT | 51 | 3.63 | 2.37 | 25.9 |
| Columbia SC | 50 | 3.64 | -3.64 | 25.4 |
| Augusta ME | 51 | 3.71 | 1.63 | 25.9 |
| Austin TX | 50 | 3.82 | 3.70 | 25.4 |
| Phoenix AZ | 51 | 3.92 | 2.59 | 25.9 |
| Providence RI | 50 | 4.30 | 4.22 | 25.4 |
| Carson City NV | 51 | 4.41 | 3.90 | 25.9 |
| Boston MA | 51 | 4.61 | 4.41 | 25.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 50 | 5.16 | 2.56 | 25.4 |
| Concord NH | 51 | 5.27 | 4.45 | 25.9 |
| Albany NY | 51 | 5.63 | 4.14 | 25.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 56.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |