Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 114 | 1.18 | 0.07 | 38.1 |
| Jackson MS | 114 | 1.18 | -0.11 | 38.1 |
| Raleigh NC | 114 | 1.46 | 0.04 | 38.1 |
| Honolulu HI | 114 | 1.52 | -0.24 | 38.1 |
| Cheyenne WY | 113 | 1.62 | 0.38 | 38.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 114 | 1.73 | 0.57 | 38.1 |
| Little Rock AR | 114 | 1.75 | -0.54 | 38.1 |
| Sacramento CA | 114 | 1.78 | -0.01 | 38.1 |
| Juneau AK | 114 | 1.88 | 0.33 | 38.1 |
| Madison WI | 113 | 1.88 | 0.47 | 38.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 114 | 1.99 | -0.83 | 38.1 |
| Indianapolis IN | 114 | 2.00 | -0.02 | 38.1 |
| Columbus OH | 113 | 2.00 | 1.31 | 38.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 114 | 2.01 | 1.15 | 38.1 |
| Frankfort KY | 114 | 2.01 | 0.94 | 38.1 |
| Tallahassee FL | 114 | 2.07 | 0.30 | 38.1 |
| Springfield IL | 114 | 2.24 | 1.87 | 38.1 |
| Nashville TN | 113 | 2.33 | 0.08 | 38.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 114 | 2.38 | 0.90 | 38.1 |
| Saint Paul MN | 114 | 2.38 | 2.04 | 38.1 |
| Atlanta GA | 114 | 2.50 | -0.34 | 38.1 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 113 | 2.50 | -0.16 | 38.0 |
| Richmond VA | 113 | 2.52 | 2.15 | 38.0 |
| Salem OR | 113 | 2.59 | 2.12 | 38.0 |
| Carson City NV | 114 | 2.78 | 1.54 | 38.1 |
| Lansing MI | 114 | 2.80 | 2.22 | 38.1 |
| Austin TX | 113 | 2.82 | 1.64 | 38.0 |
| Charleston WV | 113 | 2.87 | 2.30 | 38.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 114 | 2.93 | 2.49 | 38.1 |
| Boise ID | 114 | 2.96 | 1.46 | 38.1 |
| Trenton NJ | 114 | 2.96 | 2.53 | 38.1 |
| Topeka KS | 114 | 3.02 | 2.95 | 38.1 |
| Denver CO | 114 | 3.04 | 2.52 | 38.1 |
| Columbia SC | 113 | 3.07 | -2.61 | 38.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 114 | 3.09 | -0.75 | 38.1 |
| Pierre SD | 113 | 3.15 | 3.12 | 38.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 113 | 3.16 | 2.56 | 38.0 |
| Hartford CT | 114 | 3.29 | 2.36 | 38.1 |
| Olympia WA | 113 | 3.34 | 1.23 | 38.0 |
| Providence RI | 113 | 3.42 | 2.91 | 38.0 |
| Dover DE | 114 | 3.68 | 1.08 | 38.1 |
| Boston MA | 114 | 3.68 | 2.89 | 38.1 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 113 | 3.71 | 2.82 | 38.0 |
| Augusta ME | 114 | 3.86 | 1.91 | 38.1 |
| Helena MT | 114 | 3.92 | 3.15 | 38.1 |
| Lincoln NE | 114 | 4.07 | 4.07 | 38.1 |
| Phoenix AZ | 114 | 4.22 | 2.71 | 38.1 |
| Concord NH | 114 | 4.60 | 3.95 | 38.1 |
| Albany NY | 114 | 4.71 | 3.97 | 38.1 |
| Montpelier VT | 113 | 4.92 | 2.74 | 38.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 93.0°F | 84.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 67.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 92.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |