Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.49 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.69 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.77 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.78 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.90 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 1.97 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.06 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.15 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.15 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.17 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.23 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.23 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.25 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.28 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.30 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.37 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.38 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.39 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.47 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.47 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.47 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.57 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.60 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.62 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.66 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.67 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.68 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.71 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.72 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.75 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.78 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.85 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.86 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.92 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.93 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.98 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.99 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 3.04 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.10 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 3.15 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.27 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.27 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.29 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.39 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.39 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 3.48 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.48 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.79 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.92 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 4.95 | 4.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 98.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 99.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 61.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |