Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.43 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.74 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 1.87 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.90 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 1.91 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 1.95 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.98 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.05 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.05 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.09 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.17 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.19 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.20 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.25 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.30 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.32 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.34 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.35 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.37 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.46 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 2.46 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.47 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.47 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.51 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.55 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.55 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.57 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.61 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.62 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.64 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.69 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.71 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.75 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.75 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.85 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.86 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.88 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.88 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.91 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 3.02 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.03 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 3.08 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 3.08 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 3.18 | -2.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.20 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 3.35 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.38 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.55 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.75 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 4.08 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 19:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 20:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 21:00 MST | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 21:00 MST | Boise ID | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Springfield IL | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Jackson MS | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 21:00 MST | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 42.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 20:00 PST | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 21:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 33.0°F | 26.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 20:00 PST | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 EST | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |