Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
15833
760032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-27 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Providence RI 179 1.49 -0.07 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 1.52 -0.95 48.0
Augusta ME 179 1.62 -0.36 48.0
Hartford CT 179 1.74 0.06 48.0
Little Rock AR 179 1.88 -0.36 48.0
Jackson MS 179 1.89 1.09 48.0
Charleston WV 179 1.94 -0.49 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 1.95 -0.14 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 1.96 0.12 48.0
Austin TX 179 1.96 1.36 48.0
Concord NH 179 2.01 0.66 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.06 0.34 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 2.06 1.55 48.0
Albany NY 179 2.10 0.42 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 2.18 -0.32 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 2.21 0.56 48.0
Lansing MI 179 2.23 0.91 48.0
Columbus OH 179 2.28 1.30 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.34 0.47 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.35 1.09 48.0
Richmond VA 179 2.39 0.41 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 2.46 0.72 48.0
Helena MT 179 2.50 1.21 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.53 1.03 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 2.55 1.04 48.0
Nashville TN 179 2.56 0.46 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 2.63 0.73 48.0
Springfield IL 179 2.75 2.28 48.0
Juneau AK 179 2.77 0.72 48.0
Carson City NV 179 2.78 0.99 48.0
Topeka KS 179 2.80 0.72 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 2.82 -1.95 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.83 -1.98 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 2.90 2.16 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 2.96 -1.01 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 2.96 -0.35 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 3.07 1.09 48.0
Madison WI 179 3.07 1.76 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 3.08 0.70 48.0
Salem OR 179 3.08 1.19 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 3.22 1.33 48.0
Olympia WA 179 3.24 -1.46 48.0
Boise ID 179 3.31 2.74 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 3.35 2.47 48.0
Denver CO 179 3.47 0.73 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 3.49 1.79 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 3.50 -0.42 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 3.56 3.07 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 3.83 3.04 48.0
Pierre SD 179 4.37 3.40 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 94.0°F 97.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 04:00 MDT Denver CO 74.0°F 82.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Dover DE 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 04:00 MDT Boise ID 70.0°F 64.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 78.0°F 83.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 57.0°F 53.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Boston MA 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 04:00 MDT Helena MT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Concord NH 56.0°F 51.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Albany NY 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 69.0°F 63.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 73.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 03:00 PDT Salem OR 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Providence RI 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0