Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.26 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.59 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 1.81 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.84 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 1.87 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.88 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 1.91 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.96 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.09 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.09 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.09 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.15 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.18 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.18 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.25 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.26 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.26 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.27 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.28 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.28 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.29 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.34 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.45 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.48 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.49 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.57 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.60 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.65 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.67 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.67 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.80 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.84 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.86 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.90 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.91 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.92 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.97 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.00 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.01 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.05 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 3.16 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 3.16 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.16 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.33 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.39 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 3.40 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.51 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.59 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.67 | 3.22 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.67 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 40.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 70.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |