Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.47 | 0.04 | 47.8 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.60 | 0.70 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.64 | -0.76 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.74 | -0.40 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 1.85 | 0.68 | 47.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.85 | -1.49 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.14 | 1.35 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.18 | -0.05 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.28 | 1.31 | 47.8 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.28 | 1.00 | 47.8 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.29 | 0.86 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.35 | 0.20 | 47.8 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.38 | 0.61 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.38 | 1.31 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.39 | 0.05 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.39 | 2.06 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.43 | 1.40 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.44 | 0.14 | 47.8 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.47 | 1.48 | 47.8 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.51 | 0.48 | 47.8 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.52 | 0.47 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.57 | 0.62 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.58 | 1.21 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.67 | 2.07 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.68 | 1.09 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.71 | 0.28 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.81 | 1.84 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.83 | 1.83 | 47.8 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.84 | 0.39 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.87 | 1.47 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.90 | -2.52 | 47.8 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.91 | 2.74 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.91 | 1.39 | 47.8 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.94 | 2.67 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.95 | 1.99 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.95 | -1.41 | 47.8 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 3.13 | 0.68 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.14 | 1.76 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.18 | 2.71 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.27 | 2.28 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.27 | 2.23 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 3.29 | 1.46 | 47.8 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.32 | 1.38 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.35 | -0.72 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.38 | 3.19 | 47.8 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.50 | 0.84 | 47.8 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.64 | 1.07 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.64 | -0.13 | 47.8 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 4.28 | 4.10 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 4.51 | 4.40 | 47.8 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |