Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.16 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.37 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.42 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.71 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.83 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.01 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.03 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.10 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.13 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.13 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.18 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.18 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.20 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.29 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.31 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.33 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.34 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.36 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.36 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.37 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.38 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.39 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.43 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.44 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.51 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.62 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.64 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.64 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.68 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.71 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.77 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 2.78 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.89 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.98 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.99 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 3.03 | -2.70 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.07 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 3.10 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 3.15 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 3.33 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.34 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.34 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.50 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.54 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.58 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 3.62 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.82 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.89 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.98 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 4.11 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 34.0°F | 30.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 60.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 32.0°F | 32.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 51.0°F | 44.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 42.0°F | 38.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 43.0°F | 48.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 28.0°F | 32.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 36.0°F | 42.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 28.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 27.0°F | 27.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 36.0°F | 35.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 32.0°F | 33.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 54.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 43.0°F | 38.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 36.0°F | 38.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 33.0°F | 35.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |