Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
18383
882432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
9100 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-29 13:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 182 1.35 -0.85 48.0
Providence RI 182 1.55 -0.60 48.0
Boston MA 182 1.81 0.96 48.0
Jackson MS 182 1.86 1.25 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 182 1.88 1.45 48.0
Little Rock AR 182 1.91 0.07 48.0
Trenton NJ 182 1.91 0.15 48.0
Augusta ME 182 1.97 -1.07 48.0
Richmond VA 182 2.02 0.10 48.0
Hartford CT 182 2.12 -0.62 48.0
Charleston WV 182 2.15 0.24 48.0
Atlanta GA 182 2.16 0.45 48.0
Harrisburg PA 182 2.17 -0.16 48.0
Helena MT 182 2.19 0.54 48.0
Albany NY 182 2.20 0.14 48.0
Tallahassee FL 182 2.26 0.04 48.0
Concord NH 182 2.26 0.12 48.0
Austin TX 182 2.27 1.89 48.0
Lansing MI 182 2.34 1.46 48.0
Carson City NV 182 2.35 1.08 48.0
Columbus OH 182 2.36 1.90 48.0
Annapolis MD 182 2.39 0.98 48.0
Jefferson City MO 182 2.46 0.49 48.0
Montgomery AL 182 2.52 0.96 48.0
Juneau AK 182 2.54 0.74 48.0
Dover DE 182 2.54 0.43 48.0
Raleigh NC 182 2.58 1.10 48.0
Sacramento CA 182 2.68 2.08 48.0
Springfield IL 182 2.68 2.21 48.0
Des Moines IA 182 2.68 -0.09 48.0
Nashville TN 182 2.68 0.48 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 182 2.69 -0.74 48.0
Indianapolis IN 182 2.70 1.63 48.0
Santa Fe NM 182 2.93 -0.15 48.0
Columbia SC 182 2.93 -0.98 48.0
Saint Paul MN 182 2.94 1.82 48.0
Montpelier VT 182 3.01 1.62 48.0
Phoenix AZ 182 3.02 -0.45 48.0
Salem OR 182 3.05 1.61 48.0
Topeka KS 182 3.15 1.01 48.0
Lincoln NE 182 3.18 0.84 48.0
Madison WI 182 3.18 1.43 48.0
Cheyenne WY 182 3.20 0.30 48.0
Olympia WA 182 3.21 -1.37 48.0
Boise ID 182 3.23 2.60 48.0
Denver CO 182 3.61 1.53 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 182 3.76 3.35 48.0
Frankfort KY 182 3.79 3.41 48.0
Bismarck ND 182 4.04 3.32 48.0
Pierre SD 182 4.20 3.04 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Montgomery AL 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 05:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 54.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 MDT Denver CO 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Hartford CT 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Atlanta GA 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 03:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 MDT Boise ID 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Springfield IL 70.0°F 64.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Des Moines IA 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Topeka KS 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Augusta ME 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Lansing MI 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Jackson MS 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 MDT Helena MT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Lincoln NE 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 PDT Carson City NV 61.0°F 57.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Concord NH 65.0°F 70.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Albany NY 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Raleigh NC 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Bismarck ND 73.0°F 63.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 EDT Columbia SC 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0