Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.56 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.65 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.65 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 1.90 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 1.91 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 1.92 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 1.93 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.95 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.98 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 2.04 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.11 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.13 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.17 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.18 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.19 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.20 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.23 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.25 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.26 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.26 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.41 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.42 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.43 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.44 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.44 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.54 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.66 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.73 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.75 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.81 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.87 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 2.87 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.93 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.96 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.97 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.98 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.99 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.04 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.05 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.14 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 3.16 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 3.21 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.57 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.60 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.61 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.64 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.67 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.72 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 4.06 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 4.28 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 40.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 51.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 66.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 41.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |