Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.44 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 1.84 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.88 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 1.98 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.01 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.01 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.04 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.07 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.10 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.14 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.28 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.28 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.32 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.33 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.34 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.38 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.39 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.44 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.45 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.46 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.51 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.51 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.52 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.54 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.56 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.57 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.61 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.62 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.64 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.66 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.72 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.84 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.85 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.89 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.93 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.94 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.95 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.97 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.01 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 3.02 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 3.04 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 3.12 | -2.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.13 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 3.14 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.18 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.27 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.42 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 3.44 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.58 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 4.04 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 12:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 MST | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 MST | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Springfield IL | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Topeka KS | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 53.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 MST | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 50.0°F | 41.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 PST | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 PST | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 63.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 EST | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |