Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.58 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.70 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.83 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.86 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 1.95 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 1.96 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 1.99 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.02 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.04 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.09 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.22 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.22 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.24 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.25 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.29 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.32 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.34 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.34 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.38 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.40 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.44 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.44 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.47 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.48 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.58 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.59 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.59 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.60 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.62 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.72 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.74 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.76 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.76 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.77 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.77 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.80 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.81 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.83 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.83 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.86 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.06 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.09 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.15 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 3.16 | -2.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.26 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 3.28 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.29 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.41 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.58 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 4.05 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 MST | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 MST | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 MST | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 50.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 PST | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 54.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 PST | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 EST | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |