Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.42 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.81 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 1.87 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.90 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 1.97 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.98 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.99 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.03 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.03 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.06 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.13 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.26 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.31 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.32 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.34 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.36 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.36 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.38 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.42 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.42 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.47 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.53 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.54 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.57 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.57 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.57 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.57 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.61 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.63 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.68 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.70 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.70 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.77 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.80 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.81 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.86 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.86 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.96 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.02 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 3.03 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.06 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 3.08 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 3.12 | -2.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 3.13 | -2.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.21 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.32 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 3.42 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.42 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.60 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 4.01 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 04:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 47.0°F | 41.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 MST | Denver CO | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 MST | Boise ID | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Springfield IL | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Topeka KS | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 56.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 36.0°F | 30.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Jackson MS | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 MST | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 28.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 38.0°F | 38.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 PST | Carson City NV | 34.0°F | 27.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 36.0°F | 34.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 30.0°F | 32.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 PST | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 EST | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |