Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
15633
750432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
8750 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-27 06:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Providence RI 175 1.47 -0.13 48.0
Honolulu HI 175 1.50 -0.92 48.0
Augusta ME 175 1.61 -0.41 48.0
Hartford CT 175 1.77 0.06 48.0
Little Rock AR 175 1.87 -0.32 48.0
Jackson MS 175 1.90 1.15 48.0
Trenton NJ 175 1.93 0.20 48.0
Austin TX 175 1.94 1.32 48.0
Tallahassee FL 175 1.95 -0.10 48.0
Charleston WV 175 1.97 -0.50 48.0
Concord NH 175 1.99 0.61 48.0
Atlanta GA 175 2.06 0.40 48.0
Albany NY 175 2.07 0.51 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 175 2.10 1.58 48.0
Harrisburg PA 175 2.19 -0.28 48.0
Indianapolis IN 175 2.22 0.53 48.0
Lansing MI 175 2.26 0.95 48.0
Columbus OH 175 2.26 1.26 48.0
Dover DE 175 2.33 0.55 48.0
Boston MA 175 2.37 1.09 48.0
Richmond VA 175 2.39 0.47 48.0
Helena MT 175 2.47 1.33 48.0
Jefferson City MO 175 2.50 0.73 48.0
Annapolis MD 175 2.55 1.09 48.0
Montgomery AL 175 2.58 1.10 48.0
Nashville TN 175 2.58 0.43 48.0
Raleigh NC 175 2.65 0.78 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 175 2.70 -1.81 48.0
Springfield IL 175 2.78 2.31 48.0
Carson City NV 175 2.81 0.99 48.0
Juneau AK 175 2.82 0.71 48.0
Topeka KS 175 2.82 0.78 48.0
Columbia SC 175 2.83 -1.97 48.0
Santa Fe NM 175 2.92 -0.93 48.0
Saint Paul MN 175 2.93 2.25 48.0
Cheyenne WY 175 2.95 -0.29 48.0
Madison WI 175 3.04 1.90 48.0
Des Moines IA 175 3.06 1.19 48.0
Salem OR 175 3.13 1.19 48.0
Sacramento CA 175 3.14 0.70 48.0
Montpelier VT 175 3.23 1.30 48.0
Olympia WA 175 3.25 -1.56 48.0
Boise ID 175 3.30 2.72 48.0
Frankfort KY 175 3.36 2.47 48.0
Denver CO 175 3.43 0.87 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 175 3.46 2.95 48.0
Phoenix AZ 175 3.49 -0.34 48.0
Lincoln NE 175 3.51 1.88 48.0
Bismarck ND 175 3.80 2.99 48.0
Pierre SD 175 4.41 3.55 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 AKDT Juneau AK 57.0°F 54.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 MST Phoenix AZ 99.0°F 103.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Little Rock AR 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 PDT Sacramento CA 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 MDT Denver CO 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Hartford CT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Dover DE 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 20:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 MDT Boise ID 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Springfield IL 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Des Moines IA 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Topeka KS 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Augusta ME 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Annapolis MD 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Boston MA 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Lansing MI 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Jackson MS 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 MDT Helena MT 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Lincoln NE 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 PDT Carson City NV 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Concord NH 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 00:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Albany NY 65.0°F 70.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Bismarck ND 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Columbus OH 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 01:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 23:00 PDT Salem OR 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Providence RI 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 02:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0