Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
19083
916032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.55°
8600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-30 03:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 172 1.19 -0.60 48.0
Providence RI 172 1.62 -0.35 48.0
Jackson MS 172 1.65 0.99 48.0
Richmond VA 172 1.74 -0.17 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 172 1.80 1.37 48.0
Little Rock AR 172 1.83 0.10 48.0
Trenton NJ 172 1.91 0.09 48.0
Augusta ME 172 1.94 -1.03 48.0
Boston MA 172 1.95 1.21 48.0
Carson City NV 172 1.96 0.62 48.0
Hartford CT 172 2.06 -0.36 48.0
Charleston WV 172 2.13 0.58 48.0
Concord NH 172 2.22 0.33 48.0
Lansing MI 172 2.23 1.20 48.0
Helena MT 172 2.23 0.62 48.0
Harrisburg PA 172 2.23 -0.22 48.0
Columbus OH 172 2.25 1.80 48.0
Atlanta GA 172 2.28 0.55 48.0
Annapolis MD 172 2.28 0.98 48.0
Jefferson City MO 172 2.30 0.21 48.0
Raleigh NC 172 2.37 1.66 48.0
Austin TX 172 2.42 2.30 48.0
Lincoln NE 172 2.44 -0.04 48.0
Sacramento CA 172 2.47 2.11 48.0
Dover DE 172 2.47 0.23 48.0
Montgomery AL 172 2.51 0.85 48.0
Tallahassee FL 172 2.52 0.13 48.0
Springfield IL 172 2.55 2.05 48.0
Des Moines IA 172 2.55 -0.39 48.0
Albany NY 172 2.57 0.63 48.0
Juneau AK 172 2.58 0.73 48.0
Nashville TN 172 2.59 0.11 48.0
Olympia WA 172 2.66 -0.74 48.0
Salem OR 172 2.68 2.19 48.0
Saint Paul MN 172 2.74 1.50 48.0
Indianapolis IN 172 2.80 1.75 48.0
Santa Fe NM 172 2.91 -0.56 48.0
Phoenix AZ 172 2.93 -0.73 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 172 2.98 -0.37 48.0
Topeka KS 172 3.00 0.71 48.0
Montpelier VT 172 3.09 2.14 48.0
Madison WI 172 3.12 1.24 48.0
Boise ID 172 3.13 2.51 48.0
Columbia SC 172 3.13 -1.13 48.0
Cheyenne WY 172 3.51 0.86 48.0
Pierre SD 172 3.55 2.15 48.0
Denver CO 172 3.67 2.14 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 172 3.78 3.30 48.0
Frankfort KY 172 3.95 3.63 48.0
Bismarck ND 172 4.15 3.11 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 86.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 19:00 AKDT Juneau AK 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 20:00 MST Phoenix AZ 106.0°F 107.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Little Rock AR 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 20:00 PDT Sacramento CA 88.0°F 83.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 21:00 MDT Denver CO 78.0°F 73.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 17:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 21:00 MDT Boise ID 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 67.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Des Moines IA 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Topeka KS 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Boston MA 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Lansing MI 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 21:00 MDT Helena MT 81.0°F 86.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Lincoln NE 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 20:00 PDT Carson City NV 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Concord NH 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 21:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Raleigh NC 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Bismarck ND 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Columbus OH 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 20:00 PDT Salem OR 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Providence RI 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 EDT Columbia SC 79.0°F 83.0°F -4.0° 48.0