Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.55 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.76 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.90 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.92 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 1.92 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 1.93 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 1.96 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.02 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.04 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.05 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.14 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.16 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.24 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.24 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.24 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.25 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.29 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.31 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.32 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.35 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.44 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.48 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.48 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.53 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.55 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.55 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.55 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.57 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.59 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.67 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.77 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.77 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.79 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.79 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.81 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.82 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.84 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.92 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.94 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.96 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.99 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.11 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.15 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 3.24 | -3.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.26 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 3.36 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.53 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.59 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.67 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 4.15 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 MST | Denver CO | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 MST | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Jackson MS | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 MST | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 PST | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 PST | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 EST | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |