Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.27 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.52 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.77 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.83 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.02 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.08 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.27 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.28 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.33 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.34 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.35 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.37 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.39 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.40 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.44 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.50 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.53 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.55 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.55 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.56 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.57 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.58 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.58 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.69 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.73 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.75 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.76 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.77 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.86 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.86 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.87 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.89 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.92 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.93 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.94 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 3.01 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 3.02 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.10 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.10 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.38 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.43 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 3.60 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.63 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 3.85 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 4.04 | 3.78 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 4.12 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 4.47 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 4.93 | 3.47 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 5.58 | 4.21 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 44.0°F | 50.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 35.0°F | 32.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 55.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 38.0°F | 38.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 36.0°F | 39.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 35.0°F | 38.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 30.0°F | 28.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 36.0°F | 38.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 38.0°F | 42.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 38.0°F | 38.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 48.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 28.0°F | 26.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 40.0°F | 34.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 29.0°F | 30.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 36.0°F | 35.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 36.0°F | 34.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |