Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.44 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.50 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.76 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 1.82 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.84 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 1.93 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.02 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.08 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.16 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.19 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.24 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.33 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.41 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.46 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.47 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.49 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.50 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.51 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.51 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.52 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.54 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.54 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.64 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.67 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.68 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.69 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.79 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.83 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.85 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.92 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.94 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.00 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.13 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 3.14 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.23 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.25 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.30 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.31 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.32 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 3.34 | -3.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.34 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.36 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 3.45 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 3.45 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.53 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 3.69 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.71 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 4.01 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 4.18 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 4.32 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 37.0°F | 37.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 54.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 41.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 38.0°F | 45.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 33.0°F | 34.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 53.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |