Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.25 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.82 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.92 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.10 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.15 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.28 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.30 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.35 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.47 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.47 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.47 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.51 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.52 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.52 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.59 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.60 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.65 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.65 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.69 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.70 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.72 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.78 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.79 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.84 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.85 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.87 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.88 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.92 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.92 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.95 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.95 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.96 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.04 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 3.07 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.07 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.10 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 3.10 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.26 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.28 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 3.35 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.47 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 3.59 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.71 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.84 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.86 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.97 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 4.40 | 4.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 4.42 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 4.73 | 3.60 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 5.57 | 4.20 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 79.0°F | -13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |