Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.12 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.30 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 1.47 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 1.57 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.69 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 1.85 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 1.87 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.94 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.98 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 1.99 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.02 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.21 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.22 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.22 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.29 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.37 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.40 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.41 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.42 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.48 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.54 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.56 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.61 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.62 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.62 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.63 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.64 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.69 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.71 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.73 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.74 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.78 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.78 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.80 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.80 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.83 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.88 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.98 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.99 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.05 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.11 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 3.24 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 3.30 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.31 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.31 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.33 | -3.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.49 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 3.70 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.92 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 4.40 | -4.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 104.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 66.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 83.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 82.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 81.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 78.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |