Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 182 | 1.36 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.48 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.48 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.54 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.57 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 1.59 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.80 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 1.82 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 1.86 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.00 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.07 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.09 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.10 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.20 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.30 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.31 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.37 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.45 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.49 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.50 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.52 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.54 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.54 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.56 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.59 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.63 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.63 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.74 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.79 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.81 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.82 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.82 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.86 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.98 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.98 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.99 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.02 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.03 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 3.04 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.05 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 3.06 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 3.08 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.23 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.27 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 3.32 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 3.46 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.64 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.71 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.75 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 4.42 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |