Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.36 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.75 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 1.94 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.05 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.08 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.09 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.20 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.35 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.36 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.36 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.39 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.43 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.48 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.49 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.52 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.55 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.55 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.55 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.60 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.74 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.79 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.81 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.84 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.84 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.89 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.89 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.96 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 3.01 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.03 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 3.08 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.12 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.14 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.16 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.17 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.21 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.28 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 3.31 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.34 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 3.50 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 3.55 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.56 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.62 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.66 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.91 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.91 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 4.06 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 4.26 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 4.59 | 4.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 4.96 | 4.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 6.15 | 3.61 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 54.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 52.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 59.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 48.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 60.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 82.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |