Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 91 | 1.15 | 0.36 | 35.6 |
| Raleigh NC | 91 | 1.23 | 0.13 | 35.6 |
| Jackson MS | 91 | 1.25 | -0.09 | 35.6 |
| Honolulu HI | 91 | 1.55 | 0.03 | 35.6 |
| Columbus OH | 90 | 1.56 | 0.91 | 35.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 90 | 1.62 | 0.33 | 35.5 |
| Madison WI | 90 | 1.64 | 0.82 | 35.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 91 | 1.75 | -0.23 | 35.6 |
| Tallahassee FL | 91 | 1.88 | -0.12 | 35.6 |
| Jefferson City MO | 91 | 1.89 | 0.86 | 35.6 |
| Juneau AK | 91 | 1.93 | 0.75 | 35.6 |
| Sacramento CA | 91 | 1.93 | -0.24 | 35.6 |
| Indianapolis IN | 91 | 1.95 | 0.38 | 35.6 |
| Des Moines IA | 91 | 1.99 | 0.91 | 35.6 |
| Frankfort KY | 91 | 2.05 | 0.71 | 35.6 |
| Annapolis MD | 91 | 2.10 | 1.02 | 35.6 |
| Montgomery AL | 91 | 2.15 | -1.01 | 35.6 |
| Nashville TN | 90 | 2.38 | 0.18 | 35.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 90 | 2.39 | -0.03 | 35.5 |
| Richmond VA | 90 | 2.40 | 2.02 | 35.5 |
| Springfield IL | 91 | 2.43 | 2.05 | 35.6 |
| Pierre SD | 90 | 2.48 | 2.43 | 35.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 90 | 2.52 | 1.77 | 35.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 91 | 2.59 | 2.22 | 35.6 |
| Atlanta GA | 91 | 2.68 | -0.79 | 35.6 |
| Bismarck ND | 91 | 2.69 | 2.32 | 35.6 |
| Charleston WV | 90 | 2.80 | 2.69 | 35.5 |
| Salem OR | 90 | 2.82 | 2.31 | 35.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 91 | 2.93 | 2.58 | 35.6 |
| Topeka KS | 91 | 3.00 | 2.93 | 35.6 |
| Denver CO | 91 | 3.05 | 2.53 | 35.6 |
| Carson City NV | 91 | 3.08 | 1.96 | 35.6 |
| Lansing MI | 91 | 3.11 | 2.78 | 35.6 |
| Santa Fe NM | 91 | 3.11 | -1.33 | 35.6 |
| Olympia WA | 90 | 3.19 | 0.54 | 35.5 |
| Boise ID | 91 | 3.25 | 1.47 | 35.6 |
| Helena MT | 91 | 3.30 | 2.33 | 35.6 |
| Austin TX | 90 | 3.31 | 2.22 | 35.5 |
| Dover DE | 91 | 3.35 | 1.40 | 35.6 |
| Hartford CT | 91 | 3.36 | 2.55 | 35.6 |
| Providence RI | 90 | 3.39 | 3.28 | 35.5 |
| Columbia SC | 90 | 3.39 | -3.23 | 35.5 |
| Augusta ME | 91 | 3.46 | 1.42 | 35.6 |
| Boston MA | 91 | 3.58 | 3.05 | 35.6 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 90 | 3.86 | 2.77 | 35.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 91 | 4.13 | 4.13 | 35.6 |
| Phoenix AZ | 91 | 4.23 | 3.07 | 35.6 |
| Concord NH | 91 | 4.59 | 3.87 | 35.6 |
| Albany NY | 91 | 4.77 | 3.91 | 35.6 |
| Montpelier VT | 90 | 4.78 | 2.18 | 35.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 87.0°F | 76.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 64.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 76.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |