Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
4483
215232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.71°
4434 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-17 23:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 89 1.18 0.37 35.3
Raleigh NC 89 1.24 0.11 35.3
Jackson MS 89 1.26 -0.11 35.3
Columbus OH 88 1.44 0.78 35.2
Honolulu HI 89 1.52 0.10 35.3
Cheyenne WY 88 1.63 0.31 35.2
Madison WI 88 1.64 0.89 35.2
Tallahassee FL 89 1.75 -0.09 35.3
Little Rock AR 89 1.78 -0.22 35.3
Jefferson City MO 89 1.87 0.94 35.3
Juneau AK 89 1.93 0.81 35.3
Sacramento CA 89 1.94 -0.21 35.3
Indianapolis IN 89 1.96 0.40 35.3
Des Moines IA 89 2.00 0.90 35.3
Frankfort KY 89 2.04 0.67 35.3
Annapolis MD 89 2.07 0.97 35.3
Montgomery AL 89 2.20 -1.03 35.3
Nashville TN 88 2.32 0.07 35.2
Salt Lake City UT 88 2.34 -0.14 35.2
Pierre SD 88 2.41 2.36 35.2
Richmond VA 88 2.41 2.02 35.2
Harrisburg PA 88 2.43 1.66 35.2
Springfield IL 89 2.47 2.11 35.3
Atlanta GA 89 2.60 -0.96 35.3
Saint Paul MN 89 2.60 2.21 35.3
Bismarck ND 89 2.63 2.25 35.3
Salem OR 88 2.84 2.32 35.2
Charleston WV 88 2.85 2.74 35.2
Topeka KS 89 2.94 2.88 35.3
Trenton NJ 89 2.96 2.64 35.3
Santa Fe NM 89 2.98 -1.56 35.3
Denver CO 89 3.11 2.57 35.3
Carson City NV 89 3.11 2.03 35.3
Lansing MI 89 3.17 2.83 35.3
Helena MT 89 3.18 2.19 35.3
Olympia WA 88 3.19 0.49 35.2
Boise ID 89 3.29 1.47 35.3
Dover DE 89 3.33 1.33 35.3
Austin TX 88 3.35 2.31 35.2
Hartford CT 89 3.37 2.58 35.3
Columbia SC 88 3.38 -3.22 35.2
Providence RI 88 3.43 3.32 35.2
Augusta ME 89 3.54 1.45 35.3
Boston MA 89 3.65 3.13 35.3
Oklahoma City OK 88 3.66 2.55 35.2
Lincoln NE 89 4.12 4.12 35.3
Phoenix AZ 89 4.30 3.16 35.3
Concord NH 89 4.63 3.93 35.3
Montpelier VT 88 4.75 2.09 35.2
Albany NY 89 4.80 3.92 35.3

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Montgomery AL 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 AKDT Juneau AK 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Little Rock AR 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 PDT Sacramento CA 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 17:00 MDT Denver CO 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Hartford CT 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Dover DE 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 94.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Atlanta GA 85.0°F 75.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 13:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 17:00 MDT Boise ID 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Springfield IL 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Des Moines IA 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Topeka KS 91.0°F 86.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Frankfort KY 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Augusta ME 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Annapolis MD 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Boston MA 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Lansing MI 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Jackson MS 92.0°F 92.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 17:00 MDT Helena MT 90.0°F 83.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Lincoln NE 94.0°F 91.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 PDT Carson City NV 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Concord NH 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Trenton NJ 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 17:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Albany NY 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Raleigh NC 94.0°F 94.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Bismarck ND 90.0°F 82.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Columbus OH 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 18:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 PDT Salem OR 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Providence RI 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 19:00 EDT Columbia SC 91.0°F 95.0°F -4.0° 48.0