Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.39 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.48 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 1.63 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.71 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 1.83 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 1.84 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.01 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.08 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.09 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.12 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.17 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.17 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.18 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.19 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.20 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.21 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.21 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.22 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.22 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.27 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.33 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.38 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.40 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.43 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.46 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.49 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.51 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.53 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.61 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.63 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.63 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.63 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.75 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.78 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.80 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.87 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.94 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.95 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.95 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.98 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.05 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.08 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.15 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.17 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.24 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 3.27 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.34 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.39 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.41 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.75 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 104.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 76.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |