Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 159 | 1.25 | 0.30 | 40.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 159 | 1.34 | 0.45 | 40.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 159 | 1.65 | -0.72 | 40.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 159 | 1.74 | -0.75 | 40.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 159 | 1.75 | 0.16 | 40.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 159 | 1.81 | -0.06 | 40.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 159 | 1.85 | -0.40 | 40.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 159 | 1.91 | 0.84 | 40.9 |
| Columbus OH | 158 | 1.98 | 1.45 | 40.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 159 | 2.02 | 1.30 | 40.9 |
| Juneau AK | 159 | 2.03 | 0.10 | 40.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 159 | 2.03 | 0.96 | 40.9 |
| Madison WI | 158 | 2.06 | 0.90 | 40.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 158 | 2.13 | 0.88 | 40.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 159 | 2.19 | 0.66 | 40.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 159 | 2.24 | 0.11 | 40.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 159 | 2.26 | 0.14 | 40.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 159 | 2.26 | 1.99 | 40.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 159 | 2.28 | 1.16 | 40.9 |
| Nashville TN | 158 | 2.31 | 0.27 | 40.9 |
| Austin TX | 158 | 2.31 | 1.21 | 40.9 |
| Salem OR | 158 | 2.37 | 1.58 | 40.9 |
| Richmond VA | 158 | 2.42 | 1.65 | 40.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 158 | 2.49 | -0.78 | 40.9 |
| Springfield IL | 159 | 2.52 | 2.20 | 40.9 |
| Charleston WV | 158 | 2.55 | 1.69 | 40.9 |
| Topeka KS | 159 | 2.57 | 2.41 | 40.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 159 | 2.61 | 2.11 | 40.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 159 | 2.70 | 2.33 | 40.9 |
| Denver CO | 159 | 2.71 | 1.94 | 40.9 |
| Lansing MI | 159 | 2.80 | 2.37 | 40.9 |
| Carson City NV | 159 | 2.84 | 0.42 | 40.9 |
| Hartford CT | 159 | 2.87 | 1.70 | 40.9 |
| Boise ID | 159 | 2.91 | 1.72 | 40.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 158 | 2.96 | 2.46 | 40.9 |
| Providence RI | 158 | 3.03 | 2.22 | 40.9 |
| Olympia WA | 158 | 3.08 | 0.88 | 40.9 |
| Columbia SC | 158 | 3.13 | -2.80 | 40.9 |
| Dover DE | 159 | 3.14 | 1.18 | 40.9 |
| Augusta ME | 159 | 3.27 | 1.55 | 40.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 159 | 3.33 | -1.42 | 40.9 |
| Boston MA | 159 | 3.40 | 2.11 | 40.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 158 | 3.51 | 2.87 | 40.9 |
| Helena MT | 159 | 3.52 | 2.87 | 40.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 159 | 3.57 | 3.47 | 40.9 |
| Pierre SD | 158 | 3.58 | 3.49 | 40.9 |
| Albany NY | 159 | 3.79 | 3.19 | 40.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 159 | 3.88 | 1.18 | 40.9 |
| Concord NH | 159 | 3.91 | 2.96 | 40.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 158 | 4.25 | 1.84 | 40.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 103.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 100.0°F | 101.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 83.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 98.0°F | 88.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 86.0°F | 77.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 79.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |