Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 98 | 1.22 | 0.18 | 36.5 |
| Jackson MS | 98 | 1.23 | -0.15 | 36.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 98 | 1.33 | -0.02 | 36.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 98 | 1.56 | -0.09 | 36.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 97 | 1.59 | 0.37 | 36.4 |
| Columbus OH | 97 | 1.72 | 1.12 | 36.4 |
| Little Rock AR | 98 | 1.76 | -0.35 | 36.5 |
| Juneau AK | 98 | 1.85 | 0.72 | 36.5 |
| Madison WI | 97 | 1.86 | 0.43 | 36.4 |
| Indianapolis IN | 98 | 1.87 | 0.38 | 36.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 98 | 1.87 | 0.72 | 36.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 98 | 1.91 | -0.13 | 36.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 98 | 1.98 | 0.98 | 36.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 98 | 2.07 | -0.93 | 36.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 98 | 2.07 | 0.21 | 36.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 98 | 2.08 | 0.98 | 36.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 98 | 2.09 | 0.85 | 36.5 |
| Nashville TN | 97 | 2.31 | 0.23 | 36.4 |
| Richmond VA | 97 | 2.33 | 1.98 | 36.4 |
| Springfield IL | 98 | 2.34 | 1.95 | 36.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 97 | 2.36 | 0.05 | 36.4 |
| Saint Paul MN | 98 | 2.56 | 2.17 | 36.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 98 | 2.60 | -0.62 | 36.5 |
| Pierre SD | 97 | 2.65 | 2.61 | 36.4 |
| Salem OR | 97 | 2.72 | 2.25 | 36.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 97 | 2.72 | 2.02 | 36.4 |
| Charleston WV | 97 | 2.75 | 2.36 | 36.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 98 | 2.85 | 2.50 | 36.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 98 | 2.86 | 2.35 | 36.5 |
| Topeka KS | 98 | 2.95 | 2.89 | 36.5 |
| Carson City NV | 98 | 2.95 | 1.89 | 36.5 |
| Lansing MI | 98 | 2.99 | 2.62 | 36.5 |
| Denver CO | 98 | 3.02 | 2.53 | 36.5 |
| Austin TX | 97 | 3.11 | 2.06 | 36.4 |
| Boise ID | 98 | 3.19 | 1.54 | 36.5 |
| Providence RI | 97 | 3.21 | 3.08 | 36.4 |
| Hartford CT | 98 | 3.22 | 2.47 | 36.5 |
| Olympia WA | 97 | 3.22 | 0.76 | 36.4 |
| Dover DE | 98 | 3.23 | 1.42 | 36.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 98 | 3.23 | -0.89 | 36.5 |
| Columbia SC | 97 | 3.23 | -3.00 | 36.4 |
| Augusta ME | 98 | 3.39 | 1.14 | 36.5 |
| Boston MA | 98 | 3.48 | 2.99 | 36.5 |
| Helena MT | 98 | 3.82 | 2.92 | 36.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 97 | 3.98 | 2.97 | 36.4 |
| Phoenix AZ | 98 | 4.11 | 2.66 | 36.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 98 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 36.5 |
| Concord NH | 98 | 4.46 | 3.77 | 36.5 |
| Albany NY | 98 | 4.53 | 3.69 | 36.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 97 | 4.62 | 2.12 | 36.4 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 60.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |