Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
19883
954432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
9400 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-30 19:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 188 1.22 -0.59 48.0
Providence RI 188 1.61 -0.23 48.0
Richmond VA 188 1.69 -0.24 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 188 1.70 1.29 48.0
Jackson MS 188 1.73 0.72 48.0
Little Rock AR 188 1.87 -0.11 48.0
Trenton NJ 188 1.91 -0.03 48.0
Boston MA 188 1.96 1.27 48.0
Carson City NV 188 2.05 0.80 48.0
Hartford CT 188 2.06 -0.47 48.0
Charleston WV 188 2.06 0.60 48.0
Augusta ME 188 2.11 -1.28 48.0
Atlanta GA 188 2.17 0.57 48.0
Lansing MI 188 2.21 1.00 48.0
Annapolis MD 188 2.24 0.78 48.0
Raleigh NC 188 2.24 1.57 48.0
Columbus OH 188 2.24 1.64 48.0
Helena MT 188 2.26 0.44 48.0
Jefferson City MO 188 2.28 0.36 48.0
Harrisburg PA 188 2.32 -0.39 48.0
Austin TX 188 2.36 2.24 48.0
Lincoln NE 188 2.37 -0.03 48.0
Sacramento CA 188 2.39 2.04 48.0
Concord NH 188 2.40 -0.07 48.0
Dover DE 188 2.44 0.06 48.0
Albany NY 188 2.46 0.60 48.0
Tallahassee FL 188 2.49 0.10 48.0
Des Moines IA 188 2.49 -0.23 48.0
Montgomery AL 188 2.55 0.54 48.0
Salem OR 188 2.57 2.11 48.0
Saint Paul MN 188 2.60 1.43 48.0
Nashville TN 188 2.60 -0.04 48.0
Springfield IL 188 2.64 2.18 48.0
Olympia WA 188 2.65 -0.72 48.0
Juneau AK 188 2.68 0.96 48.0
Indianapolis IN 188 2.69 1.49 48.0
Phoenix AZ 188 2.87 -0.79 48.0
Santa Fe NM 188 2.89 -0.65 48.0
Montpelier VT 188 2.96 1.98 48.0
Boise ID 188 3.04 2.34 48.0
Topeka KS 188 3.05 0.73 48.0
Columbia SC 188 3.06 -1.20 48.0
Madison WI 188 3.12 1.38 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 188 3.26 0.19 48.0
Cheyenne WY 188 3.47 0.86 48.0
Pierre SD 188 3.58 2.27 48.0
Denver CO 188 3.62 2.15 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 188 3.70 3.26 48.0
Frankfort KY 188 3.78 3.48 48.0
Bismarck ND 188 3.94 2.74 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Montgomery AL 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 11:00 AKDT Juneau AK 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 12:00 MST Phoenix AZ 108.0°F 106.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Little Rock AR 90.0°F 94.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 12:00 PDT Sacramento CA 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 13:00 MDT Denver CO 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Hartford CT 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Dover DE 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 90.0°F 96.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Atlanta GA 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 09:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 13:00 MDT Boise ID 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Springfield IL 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Des Moines IA 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Topeka KS 87.0°F 79.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Frankfort KY 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Annapolis MD 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Lansing MI 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Jackson MS 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 13:00 MDT Helena MT 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Lincoln NE 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 12:00 PDT Carson City NV 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Concord NH 71.0°F 79.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Trenton NJ 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 13:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 88.0°F 92.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Albany NY 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Raleigh NC 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Bismarck ND 81.0°F 86.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Columbus OH 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 98.0°F 99.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 12:00 PDT Salem OR 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Providence RI 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 EDT Columbia SC 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0