Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
54433
2612832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.46°
9150 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-28 14:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Saint Paul MN 183 1.72 -0.26 48.0
Des Moines IA 183 1.74 0.06 48.0
Lansing MI 183 1.78 0.80 48.0
Richmond VA 183 1.79 -0.11 48.0
Columbus OH 183 1.88 -1.53 48.0
Frankfort KY 183 1.96 0.94 48.0
Sacramento CA 183 2.03 0.65 48.0
Atlanta GA 183 2.03 1.12 48.0
Pierre SD 183 2.03 1.09 48.0
Charleston WV 183 2.04 1.07 48.0
Madison WI 183 2.04 1.01 48.0
Annapolis MD 183 2.08 0.58 48.0
Jefferson City MO 183 2.10 1.23 48.0
Tallahassee FL 183 2.11 0.33 48.0
Boston MA 183 2.16 0.42 48.0
Trenton NJ 183 2.19 1.15 48.0
Indianapolis IN 183 2.21 -1.64 48.0
Providence RI 183 2.22 0.22 48.0
Nashville TN 183 2.23 0.38 48.0
Lincoln NE 183 2.25 0.78 48.0
Austin TX 183 2.26 1.80 48.0
Honolulu HI 183 2.27 -2.08 48.0
Harrisburg PA 183 2.27 0.42 48.0
Topeka KS 183 2.28 1.08 48.0
Augusta ME 183 2.28 -1.68 48.0
Albany NY 183 2.28 -0.67 48.0
Hartford CT 183 2.36 -0.48 48.0
Salem OR 183 2.42 0.31 48.0
Concord NH 183 2.44 -0.67 48.0
Montpelier VT 183 2.45 1.37 48.0
Juneau AK 183 2.46 1.51 48.0
Raleigh NC 183 2.51 0.74 48.0
Phoenix AZ 183 2.67 -1.56 48.0
Dover DE 183 2.68 -0.94 48.0
Carson City NV 183 2.72 -1.80 48.0
Bismarck ND 183 2.75 -0.39 48.0
Columbia SC 183 2.84 0.24 48.0
Cheyenne WY 183 2.84 -0.28 48.0
Montgomery AL 183 2.85 -1.23 48.0
Santa Fe NM 183 2.86 -0.27 48.0
Boise ID 183 2.87 -2.11 48.0
Denver CO 183 2.93 0.80 48.0
Springfield IL 183 2.95 2.26 48.0
Helena MT 183 3.03 -0.23 48.0
Jackson MS 183 3.04 1.66 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 183 3.11 0.74 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 183 3.20 -0.28 48.0
Olympia WA 183 3.22 -1.52 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 183 3.61 2.75 48.0
Little Rock AR 183 3.78 0.79 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 07:00 MST Phoenix AZ 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 07:00 PDT Sacramento CA 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 08:00 MDT Denver CO 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Dover DE 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Atlanta GA 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 04:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 08:00 MDT Boise ID 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Springfield IL 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Des Moines IA 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Topeka KS 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Frankfort KY 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Augusta ME 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Boston MA 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Lansing MI 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 08:00 MDT Helena MT 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Lincoln NE 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 07:00 PDT Carson City NV 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Concord NH 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 08:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Albany NY 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Bismarck ND 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 07:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Providence RI 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 EDT Columbia SC 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0