Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 111 | 1.20 | -0.12 | 37.8 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 111 | 1.21 | 0.07 | 37.8 |
| Raleigh NC | 111 | 1.42 | 0.11 | 37.8 |
| Honolulu HI | 111 | 1.50 | -0.18 | 37.8 |
| Cheyenne WY | 109 | 1.58 | 0.29 | 37.7 |
| Little Rock AR | 111 | 1.75 | -0.50 | 37.8 |
| Jefferson City MO | 111 | 1.75 | 0.61 | 37.8 |
| Sacramento CA | 111 | 1.80 | -0.02 | 37.8 |
| Juneau AK | 111 | 1.89 | 0.38 | 37.8 |
| Columbus OH | 109 | 1.91 | 1.19 | 37.7 |
| Madison WI | 109 | 1.94 | 0.47 | 37.7 |
| Indianapolis IN | 111 | 1.95 | 0.03 | 37.8 |
| Montgomery AL | 111 | 1.96 | -0.77 | 37.8 |
| Des Moines IA | 111 | 1.96 | 1.08 | 37.8 |
| Tallahassee FL | 111 | 2.01 | 0.19 | 37.8 |
| Frankfort KY | 111 | 2.05 | 0.95 | 37.8 |
| Springfield IL | 111 | 2.23 | 1.86 | 37.8 |
| Nashville TN | 109 | 2.25 | 0.01 | 37.7 |
| Richmond VA | 109 | 2.25 | 1.86 | 37.7 |
| Annapolis MD | 111 | 2.26 | 0.75 | 37.8 |
| Atlanta GA | 111 | 2.42 | -0.50 | 37.8 |
| Saint Paul MN | 111 | 2.42 | 2.08 | 37.8 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 109 | 2.55 | -0.15 | 37.7 |
| Salem OR | 109 | 2.59 | 2.09 | 37.7 |
| Carson City NV | 110 | 2.79 | 1.68 | 37.7 |
| Topeka KS | 111 | 2.81 | 2.74 | 37.8 |
| Lansing MI | 111 | 2.81 | 2.22 | 37.8 |
| Charleston WV | 109 | 2.84 | 2.26 | 37.7 |
| Austin TX | 109 | 2.89 | 1.73 | 37.7 |
| Trenton NJ | 110 | 2.90 | 2.45 | 37.7 |
| Bismarck ND | 111 | 2.96 | 2.55 | 37.8 |
| Pierre SD | 109 | 2.99 | 2.95 | 37.7 |
| Boise ID | 111 | 3.02 | 1.50 | 37.8 |
| Columbia SC | 109 | 3.02 | -2.54 | 37.7 |
| Denver CO | 111 | 3.08 | 2.54 | 37.8 |
| Santa Fe NM | 110 | 3.08 | -0.70 | 37.7 |
| Harrisburg PA | 109 | 3.13 | 2.50 | 37.7 |
| Providence RI | 109 | 3.18 | 2.65 | 37.7 |
| Hartford CT | 111 | 3.20 | 2.24 | 37.8 |
| Olympia WA | 109 | 3.29 | 1.11 | 37.7 |
| Dover DE | 111 | 3.51 | 0.85 | 37.8 |
| Boston MA | 111 | 3.54 | 2.73 | 37.8 |
| Augusta ME | 111 | 3.76 | 1.76 | 37.8 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 109 | 3.76 | 2.84 | 37.7 |
| Helena MT | 111 | 3.94 | 3.14 | 37.8 |
| Lincoln NE | 111 | 4.15 | 4.15 | 37.8 |
| Phoenix AZ | 111 | 4.22 | 2.67 | 37.8 |
| Concord NH | 111 | 4.52 | 3.86 | 37.8 |
| Albany NY | 110 | 4.66 | 3.90 | 37.7 |
| Montpelier VT | 109 | 4.82 | 2.56 | 37.7 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 88.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 93.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 80.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 66.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 77.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 83.0°F | 72.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 71.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 84.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 95.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |