Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.32 | 0.13 | 41.7 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 1.35 | 0.49 | 41.7 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.69 | -0.86 | 41.7 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.77 | -0.87 | 41.7 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 1.83 | 0.41 | 41.7 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.85 | -0.10 | 41.7 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 1.97 | 0.89 | 41.7 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.02 | -0.72 | 41.7 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.04 | 0.90 | 41.7 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.07 | 0.79 | 41.7 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.08 | 1.18 | 41.7 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.12 | 0.75 | 41.7 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.15 | 0.03 | 41.7 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.16 | 1.80 | 41.7 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.17 | 1.11 | 41.7 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.21 | 0.17 | 41.7 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.21 | 0.53 | 41.7 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.27 | 0.07 | 41.7 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.27 | 1.46 | 41.7 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.28 | 0.11 | 41.7 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.32 | 0.86 | 41.7 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.34 | 1.47 | 41.7 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.46 | 1.75 | 41.7 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.49 | 2.21 | 41.7 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.52 | 2.24 | 41.7 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.57 | 2.09 | 41.7 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.57 | 1.20 | 41.7 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.58 | 1.90 | 41.7 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.72 | 1.63 | 41.7 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.80 | 1.69 | 41.7 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.81 | -1.30 | 41.7 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.84 | 0.48 | 41.7 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.86 | 1.85 | 41.7 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.91 | 1.01 | 41.7 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.95 | 1.68 | 41.7 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.98 | 0.66 | 41.7 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 3.01 | 2.14 | 41.7 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 3.03 | 1.79 | 41.7 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 3.06 | -2.74 | 41.7 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 3.09 | 1.28 | 41.7 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 3.38 | 2.11 | 41.7 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.38 | -1.53 | 41.7 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.48 | 2.85 | 41.7 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.53 | 3.43 | 41.7 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.57 | 2.91 | 41.7 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 3.68 | 2.72 | 41.7 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.69 | 3.61 | 41.7 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.74 | 2.64 | 41.7 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 4.12 | 1.46 | 41.7 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 4.14 | 1.48 | 41.7 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 69.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 76.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 92.0°F | 86.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 70.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 99.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |