Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 53 | 0.89 | 0.36 | 26.7 |
| Raleigh NC | 53 | 1.17 | -0.38 | 26.7 |
| Annapolis MD | 53 | 1.19 | -0.25 | 26.7 |
| Jefferson City MO | 53 | 1.21 | 0.30 | 26.7 |
| Columbus OH | 52 | 1.25 | 0.63 | 26.3 |
| Tallahassee FL | 53 | 1.36 | -0.45 | 26.7 |
| Jackson MS | 53 | 1.40 | -0.19 | 26.7 |
| Honolulu HI | 53 | 1.43 | 0.57 | 26.7 |
| Cheyenne WY | 52 | 1.44 | 0.21 | 26.3 |
| Nashville TN | 52 | 1.63 | -0.02 | 26.3 |
| Harrisburg PA | 52 | 1.69 | 0.69 | 26.3 |
| Juneau AK | 53 | 1.70 | 1.32 | 26.7 |
| Montgomery AL | 53 | 1.85 | 0.08 | 26.7 |
| Richmond VA | 52 | 1.88 | 1.46 | 26.3 |
| Madison WI | 52 | 1.88 | 1.08 | 26.3 |
| Little Rock AR | 53 | 1.91 | 0.58 | 26.7 |
| Indianapolis IN | 53 | 1.91 | 1.04 | 26.7 |
| Lansing MI | 53 | 1.91 | 1.34 | 26.7 |
| Salem OR | 52 | 1.92 | 1.35 | 26.3 |
| Des Moines IA | 53 | 1.98 | 0.55 | 26.7 |
| Frankfort KY | 53 | 2.00 | 0.26 | 26.7 |
| Topeka KS | 53 | 2.04 | 2.00 | 26.7 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 52 | 2.10 | 0.02 | 26.3 |
| Sacramento CA | 53 | 2.15 | -0.94 | 26.7 |
| Bismarck ND | 53 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 26.7 |
| Dover DE | 53 | 2.43 | 0.13 | 26.7 |
| Trenton NJ | 53 | 2.43 | 1.91 | 26.7 |
| Atlanta GA | 53 | 2.45 | -2.15 | 26.7 |
| Springfield IL | 53 | 2.47 | 2.09 | 26.7 |
| Pierre SD | 52 | 2.69 | 2.65 | 26.3 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 52 | 2.71 | 0.83 | 26.3 |
| Boise ID | 53 | 2.85 | 1.87 | 26.7 |
| Helena MT | 53 | 2.92 | 1.53 | 26.7 |
| Charleston WV | 52 | 2.96 | 2.96 | 26.3 |
| Denver CO | 53 | 3.04 | 2.51 | 26.7 |
| Santa Fe NM | 53 | 3.11 | -1.23 | 26.7 |
| Olympia WA | 52 | 3.19 | -0.81 | 26.3 |
| Saint Paul MN | 53 | 3.21 | 3.02 | 26.7 |
| Lincoln NE | 53 | 3.43 | 3.43 | 26.7 |
| Columbia SC | 52 | 3.54 | -3.54 | 26.3 |
| Augusta ME | 53 | 3.60 | 1.53 | 26.7 |
| Hartford CT | 53 | 3.74 | 2.53 | 26.7 |
| Austin TX | 52 | 3.79 | 3.44 | 26.3 |
| Phoenix AZ | 53 | 3.83 | 2.55 | 26.7 |
| Providence RI | 52 | 4.27 | 4.19 | 26.3 |
| Carson City NV | 53 | 4.36 | 3.87 | 26.7 |
| Boston MA | 53 | 4.53 | 4.34 | 26.7 |
| Montpelier VT | 52 | 5.13 | 2.29 | 26.3 |
| Concord NH | 53 | 5.45 | 4.66 | 26.7 |
| Albany NY | 53 | 5.53 | 4.09 | 26.7 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 60.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |