Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
72483
3479232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
9200 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-12 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 184 1.60 0.19 48.0
Indianapolis IN 184 1.65 -0.45 48.0
Jefferson City MO 184 1.78 0.26 48.0
Lansing MI 184 1.85 0.60 48.0
Columbus OH 184 1.85 0.21 48.0
Albany NY 184 1.89 -0.65 48.0
Honolulu HI 184 1.91 -1.19 48.0
Jackson MS 184 1.94 1.10 48.0
Austin TX 184 1.95 0.34 48.0
Annapolis MD 184 1.97 -1.15 48.0
Sacramento CA 184 1.98 -0.03 48.0
Richmond VA 184 2.01 -0.17 48.0
Trenton NJ 184 2.14 -1.72 48.0
Hartford CT 184 2.23 -1.11 48.0
Charleston WV 184 2.23 1.61 48.0
Cheyenne WY 184 2.23 0.08 48.0
Nashville TN 184 2.24 -0.15 48.0
Salem OR 184 2.25 -0.34 48.0
Augusta ME 184 2.33 -0.43 48.0
Columbia SC 184 2.34 0.22 48.0
Raleigh NC 184 2.38 -0.86 48.0
Saint Paul MN 184 2.43 0.05 48.0
Madison WI 184 2.43 0.41 48.0
Topeka KS 184 2.44 1.61 48.0
Harrisburg PA 184 2.44 -1.52 48.0
Providence RI 184 2.46 -2.23 48.0
Atlanta GA 184 2.61 1.27 48.0
Bismarck ND 184 2.68 0.77 48.0
Boise ID 184 2.69 -0.21 48.0
Lincoln NE 184 2.69 1.55 48.0
Boston MA 184 2.77 -1.27 48.0
Helena MT 184 2.77 -0.73 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 184 2.81 1.29 48.0
Phoenix AZ 184 2.83 -2.26 48.0
Des Moines IA 184 2.84 1.58 48.0
Carson City NV 184 2.85 -0.57 48.0
Dover DE 184 2.86 -1.98 48.0
Concord NH 184 2.90 0.02 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 184 2.93 1.55 48.0
Frankfort KY 184 2.96 0.71 48.0
Tallahassee FL 184 3.15 -0.03 48.0
Montgomery AL 184 3.33 1.31 48.0
Pierre SD 184 3.33 2.03 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 184 3.35 -2.11 48.0
Montpelier VT 184 3.40 1.30 48.0
Denver CO 184 3.49 0.88 48.0
Olympia WA 184 3.53 0.73 48.0
Juneau AK 184 3.57 0.38 48.0
Springfield IL 184 3.66 2.92 48.0
Santa Fe NM 184 3.80 -2.74 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 48.0°F 34.0°F +14.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 09:00 MDT Denver CO 64.0°F 53.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 78.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 71.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 09:00 MDT Boise ID 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 74.0°F 68.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 09:00 MDT Helena MT 49.0°F 51.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 69.0°F 61.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Concord NH 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Albany NY 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 08:00 PDT Salem OR 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Providence RI 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 76.0°F +8.0° 48.0