Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
70083
3364032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.57°
9200 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-10 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 184 1.12 0.32 48.0
Indianapolis IN 184 1.47 -0.21 48.0
Sacramento CA 184 1.66 -0.20 48.0
Jefferson City MO 184 1.68 0.40 48.0
Honolulu HI 184 1.76 -1.02 48.0
Albany NY 184 1.85 -0.67 48.0
Columbus OH 184 1.91 0.71 48.0
Harrisburg PA 184 1.99 -0.17 48.0
Nashville TN 184 2.02 0.16 48.0
Austin TX 184 2.05 -0.07 48.0
Annapolis MD 184 2.10 -0.01 48.0
Raleigh NC 184 2.10 -0.09 48.0
Columbia SC 184 2.10 0.26 48.0
Trenton NJ 184 2.12 -1.34 48.0
Salem OR 184 2.14 0.61 48.0
Hartford CT 184 2.22 -1.21 48.0
Lansing MI 184 2.23 1.40 48.0
Cheyenne WY 184 2.24 -0.39 48.0
Charleston WV 184 2.34 1.77 48.0
Jackson MS 184 2.35 1.57 48.0
Augusta ME 184 2.38 -0.14 48.0
Providence RI 184 2.38 -2.17 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 184 2.39 1.13 48.0
Dover DE 184 2.45 -1.23 48.0
Richmond VA 184 2.46 0.77 48.0
Saint Paul MN 184 2.47 0.22 48.0
Topeka KS 184 2.49 1.66 48.0
Frankfort KY 184 2.52 1.32 48.0
Lincoln NE 184 2.54 1.90 48.0
Atlanta GA 184 2.63 1.13 48.0
Boston MA 184 2.79 0.24 48.0
Madison WI 184 2.82 1.66 48.0
Des Moines IA 184 2.84 1.49 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 184 2.89 1.34 48.0
Helena MT 184 3.01 -1.28 48.0
Tallahassee FL 184 3.05 -1.78 48.0
Concord NH 184 3.05 -0.44 48.0
Montpelier VT 184 3.09 0.46 48.0
Phoenix AZ 184 3.11 -2.74 48.0
Juneau AK 184 3.14 0.07 48.0
Bismarck ND 184 3.15 1.43 48.0
Carson City NV 184 3.17 -1.20 48.0
Montgomery AL 184 3.23 0.47 48.0
Denver CO 184 3.26 0.97 48.0
Olympia WA 184 3.29 -0.14 48.0
Springfield IL 184 3.43 3.29 48.0
Santa Fe NM 184 3.58 -2.41 48.0
Boise ID 184 3.68 1.12 48.0
Pierre SD 184 3.82 1.84 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 184 3.85 -3.10 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 49.0°F 43.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 09:00 MDT Denver CO 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Dover DE 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 09:00 MDT Boise ID 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 69.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 79.0°F 73.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Boston MA 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 09:00 MDT Helena MT 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Concord NH 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 64.0°F 59.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 08:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Providence RI 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0