Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
1103
52992 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
1054 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-15 03:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Raleigh NC 21 0.76 -0.48 11.0
Columbus OH 20 0.85 0.25 10.5
Richmond VA 20 0.85 0.25 10.5
Baton Rouge LA 22 1.09 0.91 11.5
Annapolis MD 22 1.14 -0.59 11.5
Juneau AK 22 1.18 0.55 11.5
Honolulu HI 22 1.18 0.36 11.5
Tallahassee FL 22 1.32 0.23 11.5
Cheyenne WY 20 1.50 0.70 10.5
Nashville TN 20 1.55 -0.65 10.5
Indianapolis IN 22 1.68 0.50 11.5
Oklahoma City OK 20 1.70 -1.10 10.5
Madison WI 20 1.70 0.70 10.5
Jefferson City MO 21 1.71 0.67 11.0
Frankfort KY 22 1.73 0.55 11.5
Pierre SD 20 1.75 1.65 10.5
Charleston WV 20 1.75 1.75 10.5
Bismarck ND 21 1.81 1.81 11.0
Jackson MS 21 1.86 0.43 11.0
Trenton NJ 21 1.90 1.33 11.0
Little Rock AR 22 2.00 -0.09 11.5
Harrisburg PA 20 2.00 1.40 10.5
Sacramento CA 22 2.05 -1.95 11.5
Topeka KS 22 2.09 2.00 11.5
Des Moines IA 22 2.18 1.18 11.5
Salt Lake City UT 20 2.20 1.60 10.5
Salem OR 20 2.35 1.55 10.5
Atlanta GA 22 2.36 -1.64 11.5
Springfield IL 22 2.36 1.91 11.5
Lansing MI 21 2.38 2.10 11.0
Saint Paul MN 21 2.52 2.43 11.0
Columbia SC 20 2.60 -2.60 10.5
Dover DE 22 2.77 0.32 11.5
Montgomery AL 22 2.86 0.59 11.5
Santa Fe NM 21 2.95 -1.24 11.0
Hartford CT 22 3.00 2.18 11.5
Lincoln NE 21 3.05 3.05 11.0
Providence RI 20 3.25 3.05 10.5
Helena MT 21 3.57 2.71 11.0
Boston MA 22 3.64 3.45 11.5
Denver CO 22 3.86 3.86 11.5
Carson City NV 21 3.86 2.90 11.0
Austin TX 20 4.05 4.05 10.5
Boise ID 22 4.36 3.18 11.5
Olympia WA 20 4.50 0.10 10.5
Albany NY 21 5.29 4.43 11.0
Augusta ME 21 5.76 5.67 11.0
Montpelier VT 20 5.90 5.00 10.5
Phoenix AZ 22 6.00 5.73 11.5
Concord NH 21 6.00 4.57 11.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 20:00 AKDT Juneau AK 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 21:00 MST Phoenix AZ 100.0°F 102.0°F -2.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT Little Rock AR 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 21:00 PDT Sacramento CA 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 22:00 MDT Denver CO 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 22.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT Hartford CT 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 22.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT Dover DE 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 22.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 22.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT Atlanta GA 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 18:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 22:00 MDT Boise ID 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT Springfield IL 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 22.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT Des Moines IA 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT Topeka KS 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 22.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 78.0°F -5.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 22.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 22.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT Boston MA 86.0°F 80.0°F +6.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 19:00 AKDT Juneau AK 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 20:00 MST Phoenix AZ 102.0°F 103.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 20:00 PDT Sacramento CA 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT Denver CO 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Hartford CT 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 81.0°F -5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Atlanta GA 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 17:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT Boise ID 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Springfield IL 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Topeka KS 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Frankfort KY 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 21.0