Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 100 | 1.23 | -0.17 | 36.7 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 100 | 1.24 | 0.14 | 36.7 |
| Raleigh NC | 100 | 1.32 | -0.04 | 36.7 |
| Honolulu HI | 100 | 1.54 | -0.10 | 36.7 |
| Cheyenne WY | 99 | 1.60 | 0.32 | 36.6 |
| Columbus OH | 99 | 1.71 | 1.12 | 36.6 |
| Little Rock AR | 100 | 1.74 | -0.36 | 36.7 |
| Indianapolis IN | 100 | 1.83 | 0.37 | 36.7 |
| Juneau AK | 100 | 1.84 | 0.68 | 36.7 |
| Jefferson City MO | 100 | 1.84 | 0.72 | 36.7 |
| Sacramento CA | 100 | 1.89 | -0.13 | 36.7 |
| Madison WI | 99 | 1.93 | 0.31 | 36.6 |
| Des Moines IA | 100 | 1.96 | 0.98 | 36.7 |
| Montgomery AL | 100 | 2.06 | -0.88 | 36.7 |
| Tallahassee FL | 100 | 2.08 | 0.26 | 36.7 |
| Annapolis MD | 100 | 2.08 | 1.00 | 36.7 |
| Frankfort KY | 100 | 2.09 | 0.87 | 36.7 |
| Nashville TN | 99 | 2.27 | 0.21 | 36.6 |
| Springfield IL | 100 | 2.31 | 1.91 | 36.7 |
| Richmond VA | 99 | 2.31 | 1.97 | 36.6 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 99 | 2.39 | -0.03 | 36.6 |
| Atlanta GA | 100 | 2.57 | -0.59 | 36.7 |
| Saint Paul MN | 100 | 2.57 | 2.19 | 36.7 |
| Salem OR | 99 | 2.69 | 2.18 | 36.6 |
| Pierre SD | 99 | 2.73 | 2.69 | 36.6 |
| Charleston WV | 99 | 2.74 | 2.27 | 36.6 |
| Harrisburg PA | 99 | 2.76 | 2.07 | 36.6 |
| Trenton NJ | 100 | 2.88 | 2.38 | 36.7 |
| Bismarck ND | 100 | 2.89 | 2.55 | 36.7 |
| Topeka KS | 100 | 2.90 | 2.82 | 36.7 |
| Carson City NV | 100 | 2.91 | 1.87 | 36.7 |
| Lansing MI | 100 | 2.95 | 2.55 | 36.7 |
| Denver CO | 100 | 3.00 | 2.44 | 36.7 |
| Austin TX | 99 | 3.07 | 2.00 | 36.6 |
| Boise ID | 100 | 3.15 | 1.49 | 36.7 |
| Providence RI | 99 | 3.18 | 2.98 | 36.6 |
| Hartford CT | 100 | 3.19 | 2.39 | 36.7 |
| Dover DE | 100 | 3.20 | 1.42 | 36.7 |
| Columbia SC | 99 | 3.20 | -2.90 | 36.6 |
| Santa Fe NM | 100 | 3.22 | -0.82 | 36.7 |
| Olympia WA | 99 | 3.27 | 0.87 | 36.6 |
| Augusta ME | 100 | 3.35 | 1.13 | 36.7 |
| Boston MA | 100 | 3.44 | 2.92 | 36.7 |
| Helena MT | 100 | 3.84 | 2.96 | 36.7 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 99 | 3.97 | 2.98 | 36.6 |
| Phoenix AZ | 100 | 4.09 | 2.55 | 36.7 |
| Lincoln NE | 100 | 4.31 | 4.31 | 36.7 |
| Concord NH | 100 | 4.40 | 3.66 | 36.7 |
| Albany NY | 100 | 4.45 | 3.63 | 36.7 |
| Montpelier VT | 99 | 4.55 | 2.06 | 36.6 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |