Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
17733
851232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.64°
8450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-29 00:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 169 1.33 -0.79 48.0
Providence RI 169 1.40 -0.38 48.0
Augusta ME 169 1.76 -0.79 48.0
Little Rock AR 169 1.85 0.21 48.0
Hartford CT 169 1.88 -0.30 48.0
Boston MA 169 1.88 1.04 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 169 1.89 1.43 48.0
Jackson MS 169 1.91 1.27 48.0
Trenton NJ 169 1.93 0.07 48.0
Concord NH 169 2.08 0.47 48.0
Atlanta GA 169 2.14 0.34 48.0
Richmond VA 169 2.14 0.11 48.0
Albany NY 169 2.21 0.11 48.0
Harrisburg PA 169 2.21 -0.21 48.0
Charleston WV 169 2.22 0.28 48.0
Helena MT 169 2.24 0.61 48.0
Austin TX 169 2.30 1.88 48.0
Tallahassee FL 169 2.31 -0.08 48.0
Carson City NV 169 2.41 1.20 48.0
Lansing MI 169 2.42 1.49 48.0
Annapolis MD 169 2.43 0.92 48.0
Jefferson City MO 169 2.51 0.46 48.0
Columbus OH 169 2.51 2.06 48.0
Dover DE 169 2.52 0.26 48.0
Juneau AK 169 2.59 0.79 48.0
Raleigh NC 169 2.60 1.02 48.0
Montgomery AL 169 2.62 1.08 48.0
Springfield IL 169 2.62 2.11 48.0
Des Moines IA 169 2.64 0.09 48.0
Nashville TN 169 2.67 0.72 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 169 2.68 -0.63 48.0
Sacramento CA 169 2.77 2.18 48.0
Indianapolis IN 169 2.80 1.64 48.0
Columbia SC 169 2.87 -0.78 48.0
Santa Fe NM 169 2.91 -0.32 48.0
Madison WI 169 3.02 1.14 48.0
Montpelier VT 169 3.03 1.93 48.0
Saint Paul MN 169 3.09 1.91 48.0
Lincoln NE 169 3.14 1.18 48.0
Phoenix AZ 169 3.15 -0.46 48.0
Salem OR 169 3.20 1.72 48.0
Olympia WA 169 3.20 -1.59 48.0
Cheyenne WY 169 3.20 0.11 48.0
Topeka KS 169 3.24 1.15 48.0
Boise ID 169 3.27 2.72 48.0
Denver CO 169 3.67 1.44 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 169 3.85 3.41 48.0
Frankfort KY 169 3.98 3.65 48.0
Bismarck ND 169 4.14 3.40 48.0
Pierre SD 169 4.40 3.30 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Montgomery AL 93.0°F 96.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 AKDT Juneau AK 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 MST Phoenix AZ 108.0°F 105.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Little Rock AR 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 PDT Sacramento CA 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 18:00 MDT Denver CO 84.0°F 77.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Hartford CT 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Dover DE 75.0°F 80.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 HST Honolulu HI 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 18:00 MDT Boise ID 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Springfield IL 85.0°F 80.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Des Moines IA 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Topeka KS 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Frankfort KY 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Augusta ME 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Boston MA 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Lansing MI 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Jackson MS 96.0°F 93.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 91.0°F 85.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 18:00 MDT Helena MT 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Lincoln NE 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 PDT Carson City NV 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Concord NH 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Trenton NJ 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 18:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 88.0°F 77.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Albany NY 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Raleigh NC 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Bismarck ND 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 100.0°F 99.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 PDT Salem OR 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Providence RI 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 20:00 EDT Columbia SC 90.0°F 94.0°F -4.0° 48.0