Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.21 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.63 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.96 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.05 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.15 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.28 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.31 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.43 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.45 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.50 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.54 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.54 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.55 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.56 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.64 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.66 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.67 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.70 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.71 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.74 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.77 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.78 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.88 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.89 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.90 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.91 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.92 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.97 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.97 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 3.02 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.02 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 3.02 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 3.06 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.10 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.10 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 3.11 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 3.13 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.14 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.17 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 3.42 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.53 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 3.69 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 3.83 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 3.97 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 4.00 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 4.02 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 4.54 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 4.62 | 4.39 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 4.79 | 3.74 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 5.74 | 4.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 35.0°F | 35.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 34.0°F | 33.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 36.0°F | 34.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 35.0°F | 33.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 36.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 32.0°F | 29.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 48.0°F | 54.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |