Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 77 | 1.21 | 0.45 | 33.4 |
| Raleigh NC | 77 | 1.21 | -0.06 | 33.4 |
| Jackson MS | 77 | 1.27 | -0.21 | 33.4 |
| Columbus OH | 76 | 1.33 | 0.83 | 33.2 |
| Honolulu HI | 77 | 1.43 | 0.18 | 33.4 |
| Annapolis MD | 77 | 1.55 | 0.27 | 33.4 |
| Tallahassee FL | 77 | 1.58 | 0.31 | 33.4 |
| Cheyenne WY | 76 | 1.63 | 0.26 | 33.2 |
| Madison WI | 76 | 1.76 | 1.03 | 33.2 |
| Juneau AK | 77 | 1.81 | 0.95 | 33.4 |
| Little Rock AR | 77 | 1.84 | -0.10 | 33.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 76 | 1.86 | 0.96 | 33.2 |
| Frankfort KY | 77 | 1.87 | 0.39 | 33.4 |
| Des Moines IA | 77 | 1.90 | 0.62 | 33.4 |
| Indianapolis IN | 77 | 1.95 | 0.68 | 33.4 |
| Nashville TN | 76 | 1.96 | 0.01 | 33.2 |
| Jefferson City MO | 77 | 2.04 | 1.16 | 33.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 77 | 2.04 | 1.60 | 33.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 77 | 2.05 | -0.29 | 33.4 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 76 | 2.24 | -0.34 | 33.2 |
| Richmond VA | 76 | 2.28 | 1.83 | 33.2 |
| Atlanta GA | 77 | 2.31 | -1.48 | 33.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 77 | 2.34 | -0.99 | 33.4 |
| Pierre SD | 76 | 2.59 | 2.57 | 33.2 |
| Springfield IL | 77 | 2.71 | 2.38 | 33.4 |
| Topeka KS | 77 | 2.71 | 2.64 | 33.4 |
| Trenton NJ | 77 | 2.82 | 2.45 | 33.4 |
| Saint Paul MN | 77 | 2.86 | 2.65 | 33.4 |
| Dover DE | 77 | 2.87 | 0.56 | 33.4 |
| Salem OR | 76 | 2.95 | 2.45 | 33.2 |
| Santa Fe NM | 77 | 3.01 | -1.45 | 33.4 |
| Helena MT | 77 | 3.04 | 1.90 | 33.4 |
| Charleston WV | 76 | 3.04 | 3.04 | 33.2 |
| Denver CO | 77 | 3.12 | 2.57 | 33.4 |
| Boise ID | 77 | 3.22 | 1.77 | 33.4 |
| Lansing MI | 77 | 3.27 | 2.88 | 33.4 |
| Carson City NV | 77 | 3.34 | 2.45 | 33.4 |
| Olympia WA | 76 | 3.39 | 0.45 | 33.2 |
| Hartford CT | 77 | 3.47 | 2.61 | 33.4 |
| Providence RI | 76 | 3.57 | 3.43 | 33.2 |
| Columbia SC | 76 | 3.57 | -3.57 | 33.2 |
| Austin TX | 76 | 3.58 | 2.95 | 33.2 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 76 | 3.67 | 2.38 | 33.2 |
| Phoenix AZ | 77 | 3.95 | 2.62 | 33.4 |
| Augusta ME | 77 | 3.96 | 1.70 | 33.4 |
| Boston MA | 77 | 3.96 | 3.36 | 33.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 77 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 33.4 |
| Montpelier VT | 76 | 5.16 | 2.18 | 33.2 |
| Concord NH | 77 | 5.18 | 4.64 | 33.4 |
| Albany NY | 77 | 5.26 | 4.27 | 33.4 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 44.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |