Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
71683
3440832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.59°
9600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-11 23:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 192 1.59 0.32 48.0
Indianapolis IN 192 1.66 -0.54 48.0
Jefferson City MO 192 1.76 0.31 48.0
Albany NY 192 1.85 -0.77 48.0
Honolulu HI 192 1.86 -1.18 48.0
Austin TX 192 1.89 0.26 48.0
Sacramento CA 192 1.93 -0.13 48.0
Columbus OH 192 1.98 0.56 48.0
Lansing MI 192 2.03 1.16 48.0
Richmond VA 192 2.04 0.12 48.0
Annapolis MD 192 2.13 -0.43 48.0
Nashville TN 192 2.13 -0.11 48.0
Augusta ME 192 2.21 -0.35 48.0
Salem OR 192 2.21 0.06 48.0
Columbia SC 192 2.21 0.10 48.0
Cheyenne WY 192 2.21 -0.28 48.0
Jackson MS 192 2.26 1.47 48.0
Trenton NJ 192 2.27 -1.90 48.0
Raleigh NC 192 2.32 -0.66 48.0
Charleston WV 192 2.33 1.72 48.0
Harrisburg PA 192 2.35 -1.34 48.0
Saint Paul MN 192 2.36 0.33 48.0
Hartford CT 192 2.41 -1.57 48.0
Madison WI 192 2.44 0.96 48.0
Topeka KS 192 2.46 1.67 48.0
Lincoln NE 192 2.57 1.47 48.0
Providence RI 192 2.60 -2.42 48.0
Dover DE 192 2.66 -1.88 48.0
Frankfort KY 192 2.68 1.00 48.0
Atlanta GA 192 2.73 1.36 48.0
Des Moines IA 192 2.78 1.48 48.0
Phoenix AZ 192 2.84 -2.31 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 192 2.87 1.51 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 192 2.90 1.46 48.0
Boston MA 192 2.92 -0.60 48.0
Concord NH 192 2.95 -0.64 48.0
Bismarck ND 192 2.98 1.11 48.0
Montpelier VT 192 3.05 0.95 48.0
Helena MT 192 3.06 -1.38 48.0
Carson City NV 192 3.15 -1.01 48.0
Tallahassee FL 192 3.20 -0.32 48.0
Olympia WA 192 3.21 0.28 48.0
Denver CO 192 3.29 0.74 48.0
Boise ID 192 3.30 0.91 48.0
Montgomery AL 192 3.34 1.04 48.0
Juneau AK 192 3.34 0.07 48.0
Santa Fe NM 192 3.46 -2.38 48.0
Pierre SD 192 3.47 2.23 48.0
Springfield IL 192 3.53 3.02 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 192 3.65 -2.76 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Montgomery AL 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 15:00 AKDT Juneau AK 62.0°F 68.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 16:00 MST Phoenix AZ 105.0°F 105.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Little Rock AR 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 16:00 PDT Sacramento CA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 17:00 MDT Denver CO 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 84.0°F 77.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 74.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 13:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 17:00 MDT Boise ID 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Springfield IL 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Des Moines IA 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Topeka KS 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Frankfort KY 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Augusta ME 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Lansing MI 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Jackson MS 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 17:00 MDT Helena MT 64.0°F 59.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Lincoln NE 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 16:00 PDT Carson City NV 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Trenton NJ 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 17:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 85.0°F 90.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Albany NY 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Raleigh NC 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Bismarck ND 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Columbus OH 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 91.0°F 97.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 16:00 PDT Salem OR 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Providence RI 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0