Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.44 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.48 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.78 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.81 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.04 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.06 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.08 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.15 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.16 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.16 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.16 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.21 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.24 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.28 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.32 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.33 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.34 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.36 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.38 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.42 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.43 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.47 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.49 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.57 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.58 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.62 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.62 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.67 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.83 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.89 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.92 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.94 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.96 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.03 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.04 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 3.09 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 3.15 | -2.86 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.17 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.19 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.28 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 3.30 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.42 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.42 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.42 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.46 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.49 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.71 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.77 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.85 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.97 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 35.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 36.0°F | 39.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |