Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.31 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.44 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.54 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.91 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 1.93 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.97 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.01 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.05 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.08 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.21 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.23 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.23 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.24 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.28 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.28 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.30 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.31 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.34 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.39 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.41 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.43 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.43 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.46 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.49 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.50 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.55 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.56 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.62 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.63 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.74 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.75 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.75 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.80 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.87 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.88 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.92 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.98 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.98 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.05 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.17 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.24 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.35 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.52 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.61 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.70 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.74 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.82 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 4.29 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 4.34 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 5.57 | 3.60 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 72.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |