Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.39 | 0.22 | 45.3 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.64 | -0.75 | 45.3 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 1.82 | 0.95 | 45.3 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.85 | -1.09 | 45.3 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.85 | -0.20 | 45.3 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.95 | 0.76 | 45.1 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.00 | 0.36 | 45.3 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.06 | 0.39 | 45.3 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.12 | 1.05 | 45.1 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.19 | 1.82 | 45.3 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.20 | -0.84 | 45.3 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.22 | 0.94 | 45.3 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.22 | 1.13 | 45.3 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.23 | 1.18 | 45.1 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.31 | 0.12 | 45.3 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.35 | 0.54 | 45.1 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.36 | 0.17 | 45.3 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.36 | 0.21 | 45.1 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.39 | 1.26 | 45.1 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.43 | 1.14 | 45.3 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.58 | 1.13 | 45.3 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.60 | 1.86 | 45.3 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.65 | 2.37 | 45.3 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.66 | 1.96 | 45.3 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.67 | 1.60 | 45.3 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.70 | 1.90 | 45.1 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.71 | 2.21 | 45.3 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.71 | 1.28 | 45.1 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.77 | 0.89 | 45.3 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.78 | 2.55 | 45.3 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.82 | 1.81 | 45.3 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.90 | 1.87 | 45.3 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.97 | 1.32 | 45.3 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.97 | 0.62 | 45.3 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.98 | -1.65 | 45.1 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 3.01 | 1.01 | 45.3 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 3.01 | 2.13 | 45.1 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 3.02 | 1.80 | 45.1 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.04 | 0.21 | 45.1 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 3.14 | -2.80 | 45.1 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.36 | -1.59 | 45.3 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 3.44 | 2.53 | 45.3 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.49 | 3.10 | 45.1 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.56 | 2.24 | 45.3 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.61 | 3.02 | 45.3 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.64 | 2.66 | 45.3 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.68 | 0.89 | 45.3 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.78 | 3.68 | 45.3 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.92 | 1.19 | 45.1 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 4.00 | 3.93 | 45.1 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 96.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 92.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 96.0°F | 92.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 75.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 90.0°F | 98.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |