Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
9857
473184 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.71°
8974 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-22 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 179 1.37 0.18 45.4
Little Rock AR 180 1.70 -0.86 45.4
Indianapolis IN 180 1.81 -0.23 45.4
Baton Rouge LA 180 1.88 1.04 45.4
Honolulu HI 180 1.92 -1.19 45.4
Austin TX 179 1.92 0.69 45.2
Atlanta GA 180 1.99 0.34 45.4
Raleigh NC 179 2.07 0.19 45.4
Sacramento CA 180 2.14 -0.84 45.4
Saint Paul MN 180 2.16 1.78 45.4
Tallahassee FL 180 2.19 0.82 45.4
Columbus OH 179 2.19 1.18 45.2
Madison WI 179 2.20 1.18 45.2
Jefferson City MO 180 2.29 1.26 45.4
Juneau AK 180 2.33 0.07 45.4
Cheyenne WY 179 2.36 0.51 45.2
Frankfort KY 180 2.37 1.09 45.4
Montgomery AL 180 2.41 -0.01 45.4
Nashville TN 179 2.47 0.42 45.2
Trenton NJ 179 2.54 1.79 45.4
Salem OR 179 2.57 0.92 45.2
Annapolis MD 180 2.62 1.24 45.4
Hartford CT 180 2.66 1.39 45.4
Richmond VA 179 2.66 1.76 45.2
Des Moines IA 180 2.68 2.01 45.4
Bismarck ND 179 2.68 2.20 45.4
Charleston WV 179 2.69 1.12 45.2
Topeka KS 180 2.73 2.46 45.4
Augusta ME 180 2.74 0.73 45.4
Boise ID 180 2.89 1.92 45.4
Harrisburg PA 179 2.91 1.73 45.2
Springfield IL 180 2.92 2.70 45.4
Lansing MI 180 2.94 1.96 45.4
Dover DE 180 2.96 1.06 45.4
Providence RI 179 2.98 1.94 45.2
Salt Lake City UT 179 2.98 -1.47 45.2
Columbia SC 179 3.05 -2.69 45.2
Denver CO 180 3.09 1.09 45.4
Carson City NV 179 3.09 0.85 45.4
Olympia WA 179 3.20 -0.09 45.2
Santa Fe NM 179 3.31 -1.42 45.4
Oklahoma City OK 179 3.36 2.93 45.2
Albany NY 179 3.37 2.32 45.4
Boston MA 180 3.43 2.10 45.4
Concord NH 179 3.55 2.47 45.4
Helena MT 179 3.56 2.83 45.4
Phoenix AZ 180 3.68 0.99 45.4
Lincoln NE 179 3.89 3.79 45.4
Pierre SD 179 3.92 3.84 45.2
Montpelier VT 179 3.92 0.97 45.2

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-22 06:00 CDT Montgomery AL 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 03:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 55.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 04:00 MST Phoenix AZ 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 CDT Little Rock AR 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 04:00 PDT Sacramento CA 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 05:00 MDT Denver CO 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 07:00 EDT Hartford CT 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 07:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 07:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 07:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 01:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 05:00 MDT Boise ID 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 CDT Springfield IL 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 07:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 CDT Des Moines IA 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 CDT Topeka KS 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 07:00 EDT Frankfort KY 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 07:00 EDT Augusta ME 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 07:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 07:00 EDT Boston MA 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 07:00 EDT Lansing MI 58.0°F 53.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 57.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 89.0°F 85.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 04:00 MDT Denver CO 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 EDT Dover DE 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 04:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-22 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0