Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
8183
392832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
8134 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-21 01:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 163 1.23 0.29 41.1
Baton Rouge LA 163 1.36 0.49 41.1
Little Rock AR 163 1.66 -0.75 41.1
Honolulu HI 163 1.73 -0.74 41.1
Sacramento CA 163 1.82 -0.40 41.1
Indianapolis IN 163 1.82 0.01 41.1
Raleigh NC 163 1.83 0.28 41.1
Jefferson City MO 163 1.89 0.83 41.1
Columbus OH 162 1.95 1.42 41.0
Juneau AK 163 2.03 0.04 41.1
Frankfort KY 163 2.06 1.02 41.1
Des Moines IA 163 2.10 1.33 41.1
Madison WI 162 2.10 0.97 41.0
Cheyenne WY 162 2.20 0.74 41.0
Saint Paul MN 163 2.21 1.93 41.1
Tallahassee FL 163 2.23 0.74 41.1
Montgomery AL 163 2.26 0.04 41.1
Annapolis MD 163 2.27 1.18 41.1
Austin TX 162 2.27 1.20 41.0
Atlanta GA 163 2.28 0.06 41.1
Nashville TN 162 2.29 0.27 41.0
Richmond VA 162 2.40 1.63 41.0
Salem OR 162 2.42 1.63 41.0
Topeka KS 163 2.52 2.34 41.1
Salt Lake City UT 162 2.53 -0.86 41.0
Charleston WV 162 2.54 1.60 41.0
Bismarck ND 163 2.57 2.04 41.1
Springfield IL 163 2.60 2.29 41.1
Trenton NJ 163 2.67 2.25 41.1
Denver CO 163 2.71 1.83 41.1
Lansing MI 163 2.79 2.37 41.1
Carson City NV 163 2.82 0.36 41.1
Hartford CT 163 2.83 1.64 41.1
Boise ID 163 2.85 1.67 41.1
Harrisburg PA 162 2.91 2.39 41.0
Providence RI 162 3.06 2.27 41.0
Olympia WA 162 3.06 0.81 41.0
Dover DE 163 3.07 1.15 41.1
Columbia SC 162 3.17 -2.85 41.0
Augusta ME 163 3.25 1.46 41.1
Santa Fe NM 163 3.33 -1.36 41.1
Boston MA 163 3.39 2.14 41.1
Oklahoma City OK 162 3.44 2.82 41.0
Pierre SD 162 3.50 3.41 41.0
Lincoln NE 163 3.52 3.41 41.1
Helena MT 163 3.69 3.06 41.1
Albany NY 163 3.71 3.11 41.1
Concord NH 163 3.84 2.91 41.1
Phoenix AZ 163 3.88 1.06 41.1
Montpelier VT 162 4.17 1.83 41.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 17:00 AKDT Juneau AK 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 18:00 MST Phoenix AZ 101.0°F 104.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Little Rock AR 92.0°F 94.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 18:00 PDT Sacramento CA 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 19:00 MDT Denver CO 94.0°F 97.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Hartford CT 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Dover DE 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Atlanta GA 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 15:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 19:00 MDT Boise ID 101.0°F 101.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Springfield IL 87.0°F 81.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Des Moines IA 90.0°F 74.0°F +16.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Topeka KS 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Frankfort KY 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Annapolis MD 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Boston MA 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Lansing MI 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Jackson MS 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 19:00 MDT Helena MT 85.0°F 76.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Lincoln NE 97.0°F 94.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 18:00 PDT Carson City NV 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Concord NH 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Trenton NJ 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 19:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Albany NY 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Raleigh NC 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Bismarck ND 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 20:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 18:00 PDT Salem OR 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Providence RI 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 21:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0