Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.28 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 1.34 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 1.88 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.05 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.05 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.06 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.09 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.09 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.11 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.13 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.17 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.18 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.25 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.28 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.33 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.37 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.39 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.40 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.45 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.46 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.52 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.52 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.55 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.58 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.59 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.64 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.65 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.66 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.72 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.73 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.76 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.81 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.84 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.87 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.88 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.89 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 3.04 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.06 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.09 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 3.10 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.12 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.12 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 3.13 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 3.18 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.23 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 3.24 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 3.29 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 3.30 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.51 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.82 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 20:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 21:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 MST | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 52.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Dover DE | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 MST | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Springfield IL | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 39.0°F | 44.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 48.0°F | 55.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Lansing MI | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Jackson MS | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 MST | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 47.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 47.0°F | 38.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 21:00 PST | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 41.0°F | 36.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Columbus OH | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 21:00 PST | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 EST | Columbia SC | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |