Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.44 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.47 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.73 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.88 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 1.96 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 1.99 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.03 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.09 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.21 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.22 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.22 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.29 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.34 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.39 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.40 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.41 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.42 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.49 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.50 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.53 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.54 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.56 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.57 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.58 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.61 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.69 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.77 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.81 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.91 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.91 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.94 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.96 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.06 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.08 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.08 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.13 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 3.14 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 3.16 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.20 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 3.29 | -3.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.46 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.49 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.49 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 3.53 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.54 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.57 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.60 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.86 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.91 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.92 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 32.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 44.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 46.0°F | 54.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 56.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 32.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 42.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |