Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.62 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.63 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 1.77 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.83 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 1.84 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 1.87 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.91 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.95 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.99 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.99 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.02 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.05 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.14 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.19 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.24 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.27 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.28 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.31 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.32 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.35 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.39 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.41 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.43 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.43 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.47 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.49 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.60 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.63 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.73 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.74 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.82 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.83 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.84 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.84 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.86 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.89 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.91 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.92 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.93 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.97 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 3.16 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.19 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.19 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.34 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.34 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.39 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.43 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.47 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.76 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.80 | -2.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 42.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |