Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 142 | 1.18 | 0.13 | 40.1 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 142 | 1.33 | 0.39 | 40.1 |
| Little Rock AR | 142 | 1.64 | -0.60 | 40.1 |
| Raleigh NC | 142 | 1.64 | 0.29 | 40.1 |
| Honolulu HI | 142 | 1.68 | -0.65 | 40.1 |
| Sacramento CA | 142 | 1.75 | -0.13 | 40.1 |
| Indianapolis IN | 142 | 1.83 | 0.01 | 40.1 |
| Juneau AK | 142 | 1.89 | -0.08 | 40.1 |
| Madison WI | 141 | 1.91 | 0.77 | 40.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 142 | 1.94 | 0.74 | 40.1 |
| Frankfort KY | 142 | 2.00 | 1.08 | 40.1 |
| Tallahassee FL | 142 | 2.05 | 0.49 | 40.1 |
| Des Moines IA | 142 | 2.07 | 1.34 | 40.1 |
| Columbus OH | 141 | 2.09 | 1.54 | 40.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 141 | 2.10 | 0.78 | 40.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 142 | 2.25 | -0.01 | 40.1 |
| Annapolis MD | 142 | 2.25 | 1.02 | 40.1 |
| Saint Paul MN | 142 | 2.26 | 1.98 | 40.1 |
| Atlanta GA | 142 | 2.37 | 0.08 | 40.1 |
| Salem OR | 141 | 2.38 | 1.86 | 40.0 |
| Springfield IL | 142 | 2.39 | 2.04 | 40.1 |
| Nashville TN | 141 | 2.42 | 0.13 | 40.0 |
| Austin TX | 141 | 2.44 | 1.25 | 40.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 141 | 2.48 | -0.57 | 40.0 |
| Richmond VA | 141 | 2.53 | 1.84 | 40.0 |
| Charleston WV | 141 | 2.62 | 1.72 | 40.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 142 | 2.68 | 2.27 | 40.1 |
| Bismarck ND | 142 | 2.73 | 2.23 | 40.1 |
| Carson City NV | 142 | 2.76 | 0.85 | 40.1 |
| Topeka KS | 142 | 2.80 | 2.68 | 40.1 |
| Denver CO | 142 | 2.85 | 2.24 | 40.1 |
| Lansing MI | 142 | 2.86 | 2.39 | 40.1 |
| Hartford CT | 142 | 2.97 | 1.94 | 40.1 |
| Olympia WA | 141 | 3.02 | 1.11 | 40.0 |
| Boise ID | 142 | 3.07 | 1.86 | 40.1 |
| Columbia SC | 141 | 3.08 | -2.71 | 40.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 141 | 3.09 | 2.53 | 40.0 |
| Providence RI | 141 | 3.16 | 2.63 | 40.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 142 | 3.17 | -1.04 | 40.1 |
| Dover DE | 142 | 3.26 | 1.09 | 40.1 |
| Boston MA | 142 | 3.45 | 2.55 | 40.1 |
| Augusta ME | 142 | 3.47 | 1.77 | 40.1 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 141 | 3.57 | 2.86 | 40.0 |
| Helena MT | 142 | 3.63 | 2.92 | 40.1 |
| Lincoln NE | 142 | 3.63 | 3.57 | 40.1 |
| Pierre SD | 141 | 3.66 | 3.63 | 40.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 142 | 3.81 | 1.85 | 40.1 |
| Albany NY | 142 | 4.01 | 3.40 | 40.1 |
| Concord NH | 142 | 4.15 | 3.20 | 40.1 |
| Montpelier VT | 141 | 4.37 | 2.13 | 40.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |