Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
5233
251232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.68°
5184 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-18 14:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 104 1.21 -0.19 37.2
Baton Rouge LA 104 1.27 0.06 37.2
Raleigh NC 104 1.29 -0.06 37.2
Honolulu HI 104 1.51 -0.13 37.2
Cheyenne WY 103 1.57 0.31 37.0
Columbus OH 103 1.67 1.11 37.0
Little Rock AR 104 1.75 -0.42 37.2
Jefferson City MO 104 1.80 0.66 37.2
Juneau AK 104 1.81 0.62 37.2
Sacramento CA 104 1.85 -0.10 37.2
Indianapolis IN 104 1.87 0.25 37.2
Madison WI 103 1.92 0.37 37.0
Des Moines IA 104 1.95 1.01 37.2
Montgomery AL 104 2.03 -0.80 37.2
Tallahassee FL 104 2.05 0.30 37.2
Annapolis MD 104 2.06 0.94 37.2
Frankfort KY 104 2.08 0.90 37.2
Nashville TN 103 2.23 0.16 37.0
Springfield IL 104 2.26 1.86 37.2
Richmond VA 103 2.32 1.99 37.0
Salt Lake City UT 103 2.50 -0.23 37.0
Atlanta GA 104 2.52 -0.52 37.2
Saint Paul MN 104 2.56 2.19 37.2
Salem OR 103 2.63 2.11 37.0
Charleston WV 103 2.71 2.11 37.0
Harrisburg PA 103 2.76 2.10 37.0
Topeka KS 104 2.81 2.73 37.2
Carson City NV 104 2.86 1.86 37.2
Pierre SD 103 2.87 2.83 37.0
Lansing MI 104 2.88 2.40 37.2
Trenton NJ 104 2.92 2.44 37.2
Austin TX 103 2.99 1.88 37.0
Denver CO 104 3.01 2.43 37.2
Bismarck ND 104 3.08 2.75 37.2
Hartford CT 104 3.13 2.24 37.2
Boise ID 104 3.13 1.51 37.2
Columbia SC 103 3.15 -2.72 37.0
Santa Fe NM 104 3.19 -0.69 37.2
Providence RI 103 3.19 2.73 37.0
Dover DE 104 3.21 1.44 37.2
Olympia WA 103 3.38 1.07 37.0
Augusta ME 104 3.39 1.26 37.2
Boston MA 104 3.42 2.69 37.2
Helena MT 104 3.86 3.01 37.2
Oklahoma City OK 103 3.91 2.96 37.0
Phoenix AZ 104 4.02 2.37 37.2
Lincoln NE 104 4.30 4.30 37.2
Albany NY 104 4.31 3.50 37.2
Concord NH 104 4.34 3.63 37.2
Montpelier VT 103 4.48 2.09 37.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Montgomery AL 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 06:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 07:00 MST Phoenix AZ 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Little Rock AR 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 07:00 PDT Sacramento CA 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 08:00 MDT Denver CO 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Dover DE 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Atlanta GA 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 04:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 08:00 MDT Boise ID 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Springfield IL 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Des Moines IA 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Frankfort KY 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Augusta ME 72.0°F 64.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Boston MA 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Lansing MI 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 08:00 MDT Helena MT 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Lincoln NE 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 07:00 PDT Carson City NV 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Concord NH 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Trenton NJ 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 08:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Albany NY 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Raleigh NC 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Bismarck ND 72.0°F 65.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Columbus OH 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 09:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 07:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 78.0°F 72.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Providence RI 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 10:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0