Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 148 | 1.20 | 0.19 | 40.4 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 148 | 1.28 | 0.36 | 40.4 |
| Little Rock AR | 148 | 1.67 | -0.67 | 40.4 |
| Raleigh NC | 148 | 1.69 | 0.16 | 40.4 |
| Honolulu HI | 148 | 1.73 | -0.74 | 40.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 148 | 1.81 | -0.26 | 40.4 |
| Indianapolis IN | 148 | 1.88 | -0.11 | 40.4 |
| Madison WI | 147 | 1.91 | 0.66 | 40.3 |
| Juneau AK | 148 | 1.93 | 0.01 | 40.4 |
| Jefferson City MO | 148 | 1.95 | 0.80 | 40.4 |
| Tallahassee FL | 148 | 2.02 | 0.41 | 40.4 |
| Frankfort KY | 148 | 2.04 | 0.92 | 40.4 |
| Des Moines IA | 148 | 2.05 | 1.28 | 40.4 |
| Columbus OH | 147 | 2.05 | 1.50 | 40.3 |
| Cheyenne WY | 147 | 2.18 | 0.91 | 40.3 |
| Annapolis MD | 148 | 2.22 | 1.01 | 40.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 148 | 2.24 | 0.06 | 40.4 |
| Saint Paul MN | 148 | 2.28 | 2.00 | 40.4 |
| Atlanta GA | 148 | 2.35 | 0.16 | 40.4 |
| Salem OR | 147 | 2.37 | 1.69 | 40.3 |
| Springfield IL | 148 | 2.38 | 2.04 | 40.4 |
| Austin TX | 147 | 2.39 | 1.21 | 40.3 |
| Nashville TN | 147 | 2.40 | 0.21 | 40.3 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 147 | 2.48 | -0.64 | 40.3 |
| Richmond VA | 147 | 2.48 | 1.71 | 40.3 |
| Charleston WV | 147 | 2.54 | 1.62 | 40.3 |
| Trenton NJ | 148 | 2.68 | 2.28 | 40.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 148 | 2.70 | 2.19 | 40.4 |
| Topeka KS | 148 | 2.72 | 2.60 | 40.4 |
| Carson City NV | 148 | 2.78 | 0.72 | 40.4 |
| Denver CO | 148 | 2.79 | 2.09 | 40.4 |
| Lansing MI | 148 | 2.88 | 2.43 | 40.4 |
| Hartford CT | 148 | 2.92 | 1.93 | 40.4 |
| Olympia WA | 147 | 2.99 | 1.03 | 40.3 |
| Boise ID | 148 | 3.06 | 1.87 | 40.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 147 | 3.07 | 2.54 | 40.3 |
| Providence RI | 147 | 3.07 | 2.50 | 40.3 |
| Columbia SC | 147 | 3.14 | -2.78 | 40.3 |
| Dover DE | 148 | 3.23 | 1.14 | 40.4 |
| Santa Fe NM | 148 | 3.24 | -1.20 | 40.4 |
| Boston MA | 148 | 3.39 | 2.36 | 40.4 |
| Augusta ME | 148 | 3.44 | 1.59 | 40.4 |
| Helena MT | 148 | 3.53 | 2.86 | 40.4 |
| Pierre SD | 147 | 3.62 | 3.52 | 40.3 |
| Lincoln NE | 148 | 3.64 | 3.59 | 40.4 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 147 | 3.67 | 2.99 | 40.3 |
| Phoenix AZ | 148 | 3.91 | 1.52 | 40.4 |
| Albany NY | 148 | 3.91 | 3.26 | 40.4 |
| Concord NH | 148 | 4.11 | 3.18 | 40.4 |
| Montpelier VT | 147 | 4.39 | 1.88 | 40.3 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 95.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |