Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.86 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.86 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.89 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 1.89 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.90 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 1.96 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.02 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.10 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.15 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.15 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.21 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.22 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.24 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.24 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.27 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.27 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.30 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.32 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.40 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.40 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.41 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.43 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.45 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.49 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.49 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.50 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.52 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.53 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.59 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.60 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.61 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.62 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.64 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.69 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.69 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.71 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.73 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.78 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.85 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.93 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.95 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.14 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 3.21 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.29 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.33 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.38 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.39 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.42 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 3.66 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 4.17 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 97.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 98.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 80.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 85.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 82.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 68.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 73.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |