Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence RI | 173 | 1.49 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.51 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 1.62 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 1.79 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.87 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.92 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.93 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.95 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 1.97 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 1.99 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 1.99 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.04 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.05 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.13 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.19 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.23 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.24 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.27 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.33 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.38 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.38 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.49 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.52 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.57 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.58 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.61 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.65 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.66 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.77 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.82 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.82 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.83 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.84 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 2.92 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.93 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.96 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 3.06 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 3.06 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 3.12 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 3.12 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.24 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.27 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 3.32 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 3.38 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.43 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.45 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.49 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.54 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.81 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 4.45 | 3.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 105.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |