Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.33 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.47 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.68 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.69 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 1.69 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.72 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.74 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.84 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 1.94 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 1.95 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.03 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.04 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.11 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.14 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.21 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.24 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.24 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.35 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.36 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.37 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.38 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.43 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.46 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.46 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.49 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.56 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.58 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.59 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.60 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.61 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.69 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.69 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.73 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.75 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.76 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.77 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.87 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.00 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.11 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.14 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.20 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.41 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.42 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 3.43 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.43 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.76 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 4.07 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 4.20 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 4.31 | 3.88 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 5.21 | 4.49 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 66.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 54.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |