Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.45 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.45 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.77 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.89 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 1.95 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 1.98 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.99 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.06 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.18 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.19 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.24 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.27 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.30 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.36 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.38 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.42 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.49 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.50 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.51 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.55 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.55 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.56 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.57 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.61 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.62 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.64 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.77 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.82 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.85 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.86 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.91 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.04 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.06 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 3.08 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.11 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 3.14 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.14 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.21 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 3.24 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 3.28 | -3.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.35 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.42 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.47 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.51 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.54 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 3.61 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 3.67 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.85 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.86 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.88 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 32.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 44.0°F | 35.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 41.0°F | 46.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 34.0°F | 36.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 28.0°F | 30.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 32.0°F | 28.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 36.0°F | 33.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 35.0°F | 35.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 38.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |