Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.30 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 1.61 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.64 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.68 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.68 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 1.86 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.94 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.96 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 1.97 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.01 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.02 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.06 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.12 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.17 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.19 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.22 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.24 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.25 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.31 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.32 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.34 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.36 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.43 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.43 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.43 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.44 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.52 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.56 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.60 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.63 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.65 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.65 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.68 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.68 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.71 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.78 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.80 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.84 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.84 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.99 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.02 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.03 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.13 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.29 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.32 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.41 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.43 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.53 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.63 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 3.85 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 102.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 74.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |