Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.27 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.34 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 1.91 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.04 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.05 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.05 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.09 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.09 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.12 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.13 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.19 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.19 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.26 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.27 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.33 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.37 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.39 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.40 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.45 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.47 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.52 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.54 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.55 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.58 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.61 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.63 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.65 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.67 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.72 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.73 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.77 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.80 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.85 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.85 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.88 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.89 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 3.02 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.06 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.10 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.11 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.11 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.12 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 3.12 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 3.18 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.23 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 3.26 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 3.29 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 3.29 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.52 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.81 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 21:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 MST | Denver CO | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 53.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Dover DE | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 MST | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Springfield IL | 43.0°F | 38.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Topeka KS | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 39.0°F | 45.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 47.0°F | 54.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Boston MA | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Lansing MI | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Jackson MS | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 MST | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 47.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 PST | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 40.0°F | 34.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 PST | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 EST | Columbia SC | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |