Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 64 | 1.08 | 0.58 | 30.4 |
| Tallahassee FL | 64 | 1.23 | -0.30 | 30.4 |
| Raleigh NC | 64 | 1.25 | -0.06 | 30.4 |
| Columbus OH | 63 | 1.27 | 0.73 | 30.1 |
| Cheyenne WY | 63 | 1.38 | 0.27 | 30.1 |
| Honolulu HI | 64 | 1.41 | 0.41 | 30.4 |
| Jackson MS | 64 | 1.45 | -0.27 | 30.4 |
| Annapolis MD | 64 | 1.61 | 0.36 | 30.4 |
| Juneau AK | 64 | 1.67 | 0.95 | 30.4 |
| Jefferson City MO | 64 | 1.67 | 0.61 | 30.4 |
| Little Rock AR | 64 | 1.72 | 0.38 | 30.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 63 | 1.81 | 0.92 | 30.1 |
| Montgomery AL | 64 | 1.86 | -0.23 | 30.4 |
| Madison WI | 63 | 1.87 | 1.21 | 30.1 |
| Indianapolis IN | 64 | 1.88 | 1.13 | 30.4 |
| Nashville TN | 63 | 1.95 | 0.24 | 30.1 |
| Frankfort KY | 64 | 2.02 | 0.48 | 30.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 64 | 2.03 | -0.63 | 30.4 |
| Des Moines IA | 64 | 2.05 | 0.67 | 30.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 64 | 2.13 | 2.09 | 30.4 |
| Topeka KS | 64 | 2.16 | 2.06 | 30.4 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 63 | 2.21 | 0.05 | 30.1 |
| Richmond VA | 63 | 2.35 | 2.00 | 30.1 |
| Atlanta GA | 64 | 2.36 | -1.83 | 30.4 |
| Springfield IL | 64 | 2.50 | 2.16 | 30.4 |
| Pierre SD | 63 | 2.62 | 2.59 | 30.1 |
| Boise ID | 64 | 2.63 | 1.28 | 30.4 |
| Dover DE | 64 | 2.66 | 0.75 | 30.4 |
| Salem OR | 63 | 2.70 | 2.22 | 30.1 |
| Lansing MI | 64 | 2.75 | 2.28 | 30.4 |
| Helena MT | 64 | 2.78 | 1.41 | 30.4 |
| Trenton NJ | 64 | 2.86 | 2.42 | 30.4 |
| Santa Fe NM | 64 | 3.00 | -1.22 | 30.4 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 63 | 3.03 | 1.48 | 30.1 |
| Charleston WV | 63 | 3.13 | 3.13 | 30.1 |
| Denver CO | 64 | 3.16 | 2.63 | 30.4 |
| Saint Paul MN | 64 | 3.23 | 3.05 | 30.4 |
| Columbia SC | 63 | 3.40 | -3.40 | 30.1 |
| Olympia WA | 63 | 3.41 | 0.11 | 30.1 |
| Hartford CT | 64 | 3.53 | 2.53 | 30.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 64 | 3.53 | 3.53 | 30.4 |
| Phoenix AZ | 64 | 3.56 | 2.50 | 30.4 |
| Austin TX | 63 | 3.67 | 3.22 | 30.1 |
| Carson City NV | 64 | 3.91 | 3.03 | 30.4 |
| Providence RI | 63 | 4.00 | 3.94 | 30.1 |
| Boston MA | 64 | 4.08 | 3.39 | 30.4 |
| Augusta ME | 64 | 4.25 | 2.53 | 30.4 |
| Concord NH | 64 | 5.11 | 4.45 | 30.4 |
| Albany NY | 64 | 5.22 | 4.03 | 30.4 |
| Montpelier VT | 63 | 5.54 | 3.06 | 30.1 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 99.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 99.0°F | 102.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 81.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 79.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 91.0°F | 84.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 88.0°F | 79.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 86.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 83.0°F | 73.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 65.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |