Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
21683
1040832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.55°
8800 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-01 07:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 176 1.34 -0.95 48.0
Richmond VA 176 1.52 -0.33 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 176 1.64 0.83 48.0
Jackson MS 176 1.70 0.64 48.0
Providence RI 176 1.84 -0.34 48.0
Salem OR 176 1.89 1.11 48.0
Carson City NV 176 1.96 1.09 48.0
Little Rock AR 176 2.00 -0.97 48.0
Charleston WV 176 2.03 0.94 48.0
Trenton NJ 176 2.13 -0.44 48.0
Atlanta GA 176 2.16 1.43 48.0
Boston MA 176 2.16 1.10 48.0
Lansing MI 176 2.16 0.56 48.0
Helena MT 176 2.16 -0.04 48.0
Raleigh NC 176 2.18 1.37 48.0
Austin TX 176 2.18 2.17 48.0
Sacramento CA 176 2.19 1.90 48.0
Jefferson City MO 176 2.24 0.32 48.0
Augusta ME 176 2.26 -1.48 48.0
Harrisburg PA 176 2.27 -0.93 48.0
Annapolis MD 176 2.32 0.78 48.0
Hartford CT 176 2.41 -0.73 48.0
Nashville TN 176 2.48 0.31 48.0
Columbia SC 176 2.50 -0.68 48.0
Dover DE 176 2.51 -0.21 48.0
Saint Paul MN 176 2.52 1.19 48.0
Lincoln NE 176 2.58 0.40 48.0
Albany NY 176 2.59 0.39 48.0
Columbus OH 176 2.61 1.08 48.0
Tallahassee FL 176 2.64 0.28 48.0
Montgomery AL 176 2.68 0.05 48.0
Springfield IL 176 2.69 1.97 48.0
Des Moines IA 176 2.72 0.18 48.0
Phoenix AZ 176 2.87 -0.53 48.0
Olympia WA 176 2.88 -1.66 48.0
Indianapolis IN 176 2.90 1.68 48.0
Concord NH 176 2.94 -0.85 48.0
Juneau AK 176 2.95 0.89 48.0
Madison WI 176 2.97 1.02 48.0
Topeka KS 176 3.07 0.58 48.0
Pierre SD 176 3.13 1.74 48.0
Montpelier VT 176 3.13 1.94 48.0
Santa Fe NM 176 3.17 -1.61 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 176 3.27 2.10 48.0
Boise ID 176 3.30 0.56 48.0
Denver CO 176 3.32 1.72 48.0
Bismarck ND 176 3.34 1.57 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 176 3.43 0.59 48.0
Cheyenne WY 176 3.49 0.36 48.0
Frankfort KY 176 3.85 3.26 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 23:00 AKDT Juneau AK 60.0°F 55.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 00:00 MST Phoenix AZ 100.0°F 105.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Little Rock AR 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 00:00 PDT Sacramento CA 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 01:00 MDT Denver CO 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Hartford CT 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Dover DE 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 21:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 01:00 MDT Boise ID 68.0°F 79.0°F -11.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Springfield IL 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Des Moines IA 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Topeka KS 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Annapolis MD 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 01:00 MDT Helena MT 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Lincoln NE 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 00:00 PDT Carson City NV 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Concord NH 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 01:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Raleigh NC 71.0°F 76.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Bismarck ND 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Columbus OH 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 00:00 PDT Salem OR 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 80.0°F -5.0° 48.0