Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.37 | 0.18 | 45.4 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.70 | -0.86 | 45.4 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.81 | -0.23 | 45.4 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 1.88 | 1.04 | 45.4 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.92 | -1.19 | 45.4 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.92 | 0.69 | 45.2 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 1.99 | 0.34 | 45.4 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.07 | 0.19 | 45.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.14 | -0.84 | 45.4 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.16 | 1.78 | 45.4 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.19 | 0.82 | 45.4 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.19 | 1.18 | 45.2 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.20 | 1.18 | 45.2 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.29 | 1.26 | 45.4 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.33 | 0.07 | 45.4 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.36 | 0.51 | 45.2 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.37 | 1.09 | 45.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.41 | -0.01 | 45.4 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.47 | 0.42 | 45.2 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.54 | 1.79 | 45.4 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.57 | 0.92 | 45.2 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.62 | 1.24 | 45.4 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.66 | 1.39 | 45.4 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.66 | 1.76 | 45.2 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.68 | 2.01 | 45.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.68 | 2.20 | 45.4 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.69 | 1.12 | 45.2 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.73 | 2.46 | 45.4 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.74 | 0.73 | 45.4 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.89 | 1.92 | 45.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.91 | 1.73 | 45.2 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.92 | 2.70 | 45.4 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.94 | 1.96 | 45.4 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.96 | 1.06 | 45.4 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.98 | 1.94 | 45.2 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.98 | -1.47 | 45.2 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 3.05 | -2.69 | 45.2 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.09 | 1.09 | 45.4 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.09 | 0.85 | 45.4 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.20 | -0.09 | 45.2 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.31 | -1.42 | 45.4 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.36 | 2.93 | 45.2 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 3.37 | 2.32 | 45.4 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 3.43 | 2.10 | 45.4 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.55 | 2.47 | 45.4 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.56 | 2.83 | 45.4 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 3.68 | 0.99 | 45.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.89 | 3.79 | 45.4 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.92 | 3.84 | 45.2 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.92 | 0.97 | 45.2 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |