Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.41 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.79 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 1.88 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.91 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 1.97 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.97 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 1.98 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.02 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.04 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.07 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.15 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.26 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.28 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.31 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.33 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.37 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.37 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.38 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.41 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.41 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.46 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.51 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.54 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.54 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.57 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.58 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.60 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.61 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.62 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.68 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.71 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.72 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.78 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.81 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.82 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.84 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.85 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.95 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 2.98 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 3.03 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.05 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 3.06 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 3.12 | -2.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 3.13 | -2.94 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.22 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.34 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 3.39 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.44 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.63 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 4.00 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 51.0°F | 57.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 04:00 MST | Denver CO | 38.0°F | 44.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 70.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 04:00 MST | Boise ID | 35.0°F | 37.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Springfield IL | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Topeka KS | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 35.0°F | 32.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Jackson MS | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 04:00 MST | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 33.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 PST | Carson City NV | 35.0°F | 28.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 04:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 35.0°F | 39.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 29.0°F | 31.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 PST | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 EST | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |