Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.29 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.76 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.95 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 1.97 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.16 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.17 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.42 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.44 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.45 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.48 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.56 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.57 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.57 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.60 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.61 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.65 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.69 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.70 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.71 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.75 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.80 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.85 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.88 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.95 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.96 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.96 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.97 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.98 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.99 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.99 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 3.01 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 3.02 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.02 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 3.05 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.11 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.13 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.24 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 3.31 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 3.39 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.56 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 3.65 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 3.68 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.91 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.94 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 4.12 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 4.29 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 4.34 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 4.80 | 4.59 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 4.98 | 4.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 5.73 | 3.62 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 71.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 52.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |