Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.49 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.52 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.53 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.63 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.78 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.80 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.80 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.88 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.99 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.10 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.19 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.20 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.22 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.25 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.30 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.37 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.39 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.41 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.44 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.50 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.53 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.55 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.63 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.64 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.67 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.67 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.70 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.74 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.77 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.81 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.81 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.95 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.00 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.03 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.04 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.11 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 3.16 | -2.82 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.22 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.29 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.31 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 3.39 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 3.42 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.45 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.51 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.54 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 3.59 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.84 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 4.13 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 4.17 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 4.20 | 3.23 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 33.0°F | 24.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 37.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 39.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |