Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 154 | 1.19 | 0.21 | 40.7 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 154 | 1.25 | 0.33 | 40.7 |
| Little Rock AR | 154 | 1.69 | -0.73 | 40.7 |
| Raleigh NC | 154 | 1.69 | 0.08 | 40.7 |
| Honolulu HI | 154 | 1.74 | -0.78 | 40.7 |
| Indianapolis IN | 154 | 1.83 | -0.09 | 40.7 |
| Sacramento CA | 154 | 1.84 | -0.34 | 40.7 |
| Jefferson City MO | 154 | 1.95 | 0.84 | 40.7 |
| Madison WI | 153 | 1.95 | 0.75 | 40.6 |
| Tallahassee FL | 154 | 1.99 | 0.40 | 40.7 |
| Columbus OH | 153 | 2.01 | 1.46 | 40.6 |
| Des Moines IA | 154 | 2.02 | 1.28 | 40.7 |
| Juneau AK | 154 | 2.03 | 0.17 | 40.7 |
| Frankfort KY | 154 | 2.03 | 0.92 | 40.7 |
| Cheyenne WY | 153 | 2.14 | 0.92 | 40.6 |
| Montgomery AL | 154 | 2.22 | 0.13 | 40.7 |
| Annapolis MD | 154 | 2.24 | 1.08 | 40.7 |
| Saint Paul MN | 154 | 2.28 | 2.01 | 40.7 |
| Atlanta GA | 154 | 2.30 | 0.18 | 40.7 |
| Austin TX | 153 | 2.36 | 1.22 | 40.6 |
| Salem OR | 153 | 2.37 | 1.56 | 40.6 |
| Nashville TN | 153 | 2.37 | 0.27 | 40.6 |
| Springfield IL | 154 | 2.42 | 2.09 | 40.7 |
| Richmond VA | 153 | 2.42 | 1.63 | 40.6 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 153 | 2.50 | -0.73 | 40.6 |
| Charleston WV | 153 | 2.59 | 1.71 | 40.6 |
| Topeka KS | 154 | 2.64 | 2.51 | 40.7 |
| Bismarck ND | 154 | 2.68 | 2.18 | 40.7 |
| Trenton NJ | 154 | 2.71 | 2.33 | 40.7 |
| Denver CO | 154 | 2.79 | 1.99 | 40.7 |
| Lansing MI | 154 | 2.83 | 2.39 | 40.7 |
| Carson City NV | 154 | 2.85 | 0.51 | 40.7 |
| Hartford CT | 154 | 2.90 | 1.79 | 40.7 |
| Boise ID | 154 | 2.96 | 1.81 | 40.7 |
| Harrisburg PA | 153 | 2.99 | 2.47 | 40.6 |
| Providence RI | 153 | 3.05 | 2.30 | 40.6 |
| Olympia WA | 153 | 3.05 | 1.04 | 40.6 |
| Columbia SC | 153 | 3.12 | -2.78 | 40.6 |
| Dover DE | 154 | 3.20 | 1.18 | 40.7 |
| Santa Fe NM | 154 | 3.29 | -1.31 | 40.7 |
| Augusta ME | 154 | 3.34 | 1.56 | 40.7 |
| Boston MA | 154 | 3.36 | 2.17 | 40.7 |
| Helena MT | 154 | 3.46 | 2.80 | 40.7 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 153 | 3.61 | 2.96 | 40.6 |
| Pierre SD | 153 | 3.61 | 3.52 | 40.6 |
| Lincoln NE | 154 | 3.63 | 3.58 | 40.7 |
| Albany NY | 154 | 3.83 | 3.21 | 40.7 |
| Phoenix AZ | 154 | 3.94 | 1.29 | 40.7 |
| Concord NH | 154 | 4.01 | 3.05 | 40.7 |
| Montpelier VT | 153 | 4.28 | 1.80 | 40.6 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 80.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |