Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.56 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.69 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.74 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.74 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.86 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 1.90 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 1.92 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 2.01 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.02 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.07 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.09 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.09 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.15 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.21 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.23 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.25 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.28 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.30 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.30 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.32 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.36 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.42 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.46 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.51 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.52 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.55 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.55 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.57 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.61 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.67 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.72 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.75 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.80 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.83 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.85 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.86 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.92 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.92 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.93 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.95 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.96 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.97 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.16 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.73 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.73 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.75 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.75 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.79 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.80 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 4.66 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 94.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 103.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 77.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 72.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 96.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |