Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.39 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.53 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.76 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.85 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 1.87 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 1.96 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.03 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.13 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.20 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.20 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.29 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.37 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.39 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.43 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.46 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.48 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.51 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.51 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.54 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.57 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.60 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.62 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.62 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.64 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.70 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.74 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.75 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.89 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.92 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.94 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.00 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.01 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.10 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 3.23 | -2.64 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.24 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.26 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 3.32 | -3.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.35 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.35 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.35 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 3.36 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 3.37 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.40 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.40 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.54 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.71 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.77 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 3.94 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 4.08 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 4.32 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 48.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 58.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 36.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 57.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 60.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 35.0°F | 38.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |