Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.29 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.45 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.53 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 1.92 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.93 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.97 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.02 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.05 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.10 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.19 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.21 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.23 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.25 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.27 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.28 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.29 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.29 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.29 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.35 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.38 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.46 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.47 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.47 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.49 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.52 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.56 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.57 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.64 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.66 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.76 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.77 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.78 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.79 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.82 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.89 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.90 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.98 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.02 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.08 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.13 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.25 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.41 | 3.17 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.58 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 3.63 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.68 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.78 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.80 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 4.34 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 4.36 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 5.57 | 3.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 37.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |