Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.70 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.72 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 1.72 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.80 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 1.81 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 1.82 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.88 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.88 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 1.94 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.94 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.00 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.02 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.03 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.09 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.20 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.20 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.27 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.35 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.35 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.49 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.50 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.51 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.53 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.54 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.57 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.61 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.65 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.70 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.84 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.86 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.86 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.87 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.87 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.94 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.95 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.97 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.99 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 3.01 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.02 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 3.05 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 3.06 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.19 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 3.23 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.41 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.47 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.47 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.49 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.55 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 5.11 | 4.33 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 95.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |