Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.60 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.75 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.76 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.82 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.91 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 1.91 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 1.98 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 1.99 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.06 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.13 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.14 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.23 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.26 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.26 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.28 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.28 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.30 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.32 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.33 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.34 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.39 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.43 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.44 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.45 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.53 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.54 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.57 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.66 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.66 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.69 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.70 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.73 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.73 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.76 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.77 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.81 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.81 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.81 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.83 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.91 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.05 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 3.07 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.18 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 3.24 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.27 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.33 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 3.33 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.46 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.64 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 4.12 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 22:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 MST | Denver CO | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 MST | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Topeka KS | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 60.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 MST | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 31.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 PST | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 37.0°F | 37.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 PST | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 EST | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |