Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 93 | 1.16 | 0.32 | 35.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 93 | 1.23 | 0.15 | 35.9 |
| Jackson MS | 93 | 1.24 | -0.10 | 35.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 93 | 1.58 | -0.03 | 35.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 92 | 1.62 | 0.36 | 35.7 |
| Columbus OH | 92 | 1.65 | 1.02 | 35.7 |
| Madison WI | 92 | 1.71 | 0.71 | 35.7 |
| Little Rock AR | 93 | 1.74 | -0.26 | 35.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 93 | 1.89 | 0.80 | 35.9 |
| Juneau AK | 93 | 1.91 | 0.75 | 35.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 93 | 1.92 | -0.23 | 35.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 93 | 1.92 | 0.35 | 35.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 93 | 1.97 | 0.01 | 35.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 93 | 2.00 | 0.95 | 35.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 93 | 2.08 | 0.76 | 35.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 93 | 2.10 | 1.04 | 35.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 93 | 2.14 | -1.00 | 35.9 |
| Nashville TN | 92 | 2.39 | 0.24 | 35.7 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 92 | 2.39 | 0.02 | 35.7 |
| Richmond VA | 92 | 2.39 | 2.02 | 35.7 |
| Springfield IL | 93 | 2.42 | 2.05 | 35.9 |
| Pierre SD | 92 | 2.54 | 2.50 | 35.7 |
| Saint Paul MN | 93 | 2.56 | 2.19 | 35.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 92 | 2.58 | 1.84 | 35.7 |
| Atlanta GA | 93 | 2.69 | -0.71 | 35.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 93 | 2.70 | 2.33 | 35.9 |
| Charleston WV | 92 | 2.76 | 2.63 | 35.7 |
| Salem OR | 92 | 2.80 | 2.30 | 35.7 |
| Trenton NJ | 93 | 2.92 | 2.47 | 35.9 |
| Denver CO | 93 | 3.01 | 2.49 | 35.9 |
| Carson City NV | 93 | 3.02 | 1.90 | 35.9 |
| Topeka KS | 93 | 3.03 | 2.97 | 35.9 |
| Lansing MI | 93 | 3.11 | 2.78 | 35.9 |
| Olympia WA | 92 | 3.16 | 0.58 | 35.7 |
| Santa Fe NM | 93 | 3.19 | -1.15 | 35.9 |
| Boise ID | 93 | 3.23 | 1.48 | 35.9 |
| Austin TX | 92 | 3.24 | 2.17 | 35.7 |
| Dover DE | 93 | 3.34 | 1.43 | 35.9 |
| Providence RI | 92 | 3.34 | 3.23 | 35.7 |
| Columbia SC | 92 | 3.36 | -3.21 | 35.7 |
| Hartford CT | 93 | 3.38 | 2.58 | 35.9 |
| Augusta ME | 93 | 3.45 | 1.32 | 35.9 |
| Boston MA | 93 | 3.51 | 2.99 | 35.9 |
| Helena MT | 93 | 3.54 | 2.59 | 35.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 92 | 3.93 | 2.87 | 35.7 |
| Phoenix AZ | 93 | 4.18 | 2.96 | 35.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 93 | 4.18 | 4.18 | 35.9 |
| Concord NH | 93 | 4.62 | 3.91 | 35.9 |
| Albany NY | 93 | 4.73 | 3.89 | 35.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 92 | 4.78 | 2.24 | 35.7 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 66.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |