Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.12 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.45 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.52 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.89 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.98 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.02 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.08 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.09 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.18 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.21 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.22 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.22 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.24 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.29 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.31 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.34 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.36 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.39 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.41 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.41 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.44 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.45 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.45 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.47 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.51 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.52 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.54 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.55 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.58 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.73 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.80 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.83 | -2.50 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.93 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.96 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.97 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.00 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.03 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.10 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 3.13 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 3.14 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.16 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.25 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.35 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.39 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.39 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.57 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.74 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.94 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 4.20 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 4.41 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 41.0°F | 50.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 43.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 43.0°F | 50.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 36.0°F | 38.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 39.0°F | 47.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 41.0°F | 50.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |