Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.41 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.47 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 1.63 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.72 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 1.82 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.83 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.00 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.07 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.11 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.14 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.18 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.19 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.19 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.19 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.22 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.22 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.22 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.22 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.27 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.29 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.35 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.39 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.41 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.43 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.45 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.48 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.48 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.54 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.60 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.61 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.65 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.66 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.77 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.78 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.81 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.85 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.91 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.94 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.98 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.99 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.03 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.06 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.12 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.16 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.23 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.26 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.31 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.36 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.40 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.71 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 107.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 75.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 92.0°F | 86.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |