Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.64 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.67 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.80 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.80 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 1.86 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.87 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 1.90 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 1.91 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 1.94 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.95 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 1.95 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.96 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 1.99 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.99 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.12 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.20 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.21 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.22 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.22 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.36 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.37 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.43 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.43 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.45 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.52 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.64 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.66 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.66 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.67 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.78 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.81 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.82 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.86 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.87 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.89 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.94 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.95 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.06 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.14 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 3.16 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 3.18 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.18 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.28 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.35 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.43 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 3.52 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.52 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.53 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.74 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.94 | -3.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 79.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 64.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |