Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.55 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.68 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.73 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.73 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.84 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 1.89 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 1.94 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 2.02 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.03 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.06 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.09 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.09 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.20 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.23 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.24 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.25 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.29 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.29 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.32 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.34 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.35 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.42 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.43 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.49 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.49 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.54 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.54 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.59 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.61 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.67 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.73 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.76 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.78 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.81 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.85 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.85 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.89 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.92 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.93 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.95 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.95 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.99 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.17 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.69 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.69 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.72 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.74 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.80 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.84 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 4.71 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 67.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 101.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 76.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |