Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.36 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.54 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.54 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.58 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.68 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 1.76 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.83 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 1.94 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.96 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 1.99 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.04 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.11 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.11 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.12 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.17 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.20 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.31 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.35 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.36 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.37 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.39 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.42 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.42 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.46 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.48 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.57 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.66 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.66 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.68 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.69 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.71 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.72 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.77 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.94 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.97 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.03 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.03 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 3.09 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 3.28 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.32 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 3.34 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 3.39 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.44 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.51 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.52 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.64 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 4.02 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 4.04 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 4.19 | 3.22 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 4.72 | 3.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 33.0°F | 25.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 29.0°F | 34.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 38.0°F | 46.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 58.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 29.0°F | 35.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 43.0°F | 48.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |