Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 36 | 0.89 | 0.61 | 18.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 36 | 0.97 | -0.08 | 18.5 |
| Richmond VA | 35 | 1.06 | 0.43 | 18.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 36 | 1.08 | 0.08 | 18.5 |
| Juneau AK | 36 | 1.11 | 0.61 | 18.5 |
| Columbus OH | 35 | 1.23 | 0.66 | 18.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 36 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 18.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 36 | 1.36 | -0.36 | 18.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 36 | 1.56 | 0.33 | 18.5 |
| Nashville TN | 35 | 1.57 | -0.49 | 18.0 |
| Jackson MS | 36 | 1.58 | -0.14 | 18.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 35 | 1.60 | 0.23 | 18.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 36 | 1.67 | 1.06 | 18.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 36 | 1.75 | 0.47 | 18.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 36 | 1.83 | 1.17 | 18.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 35 | 1.83 | -0.91 | 18.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 35 | 1.83 | 0.63 | 18.0 |
| Salem OR | 35 | 1.86 | 1.17 | 18.0 |
| Lansing MI | 36 | 1.92 | 1.31 | 18.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 36 | 2.00 | 0.72 | 18.5 |
| Topeka KS | 36 | 2.06 | 2.00 | 18.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 35 | 2.06 | 0.86 | 18.0 |
| Madison WI | 35 | 2.06 | 1.49 | 18.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 36 | 2.08 | 0.25 | 18.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 36 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 18.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 36 | 2.14 | 0.14 | 18.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 36 | 2.14 | -1.81 | 18.5 |
| Springfield IL | 36 | 2.17 | 1.61 | 18.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 36 | 2.22 | -1.78 | 18.5 |
| Dover DE | 36 | 2.58 | 0.47 | 18.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 36 | 2.61 | 2.33 | 18.5 |
| Pierre SD | 35 | 2.63 | 2.57 | 18.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 36 | 2.89 | 2.89 | 18.5 |
| Hartford CT | 36 | 2.97 | 1.58 | 18.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 36 | 3.00 | -2.00 | 18.5 |
| Olympia WA | 35 | 3.00 | 0.26 | 18.0 |
| Columbia SC | 35 | 3.14 | -3.14 | 18.0 |
| Charleston WV | 35 | 3.14 | 3.14 | 18.0 |
| Helena MT | 36 | 3.33 | 2.83 | 18.5 |
| Austin TX | 35 | 3.43 | 3.37 | 18.0 |
| Boise ID | 36 | 3.44 | 2.56 | 18.5 |
| Denver CO | 36 | 3.64 | 3.64 | 18.5 |
| Providence RI | 35 | 3.91 | 3.80 | 18.0 |
| Boston MA | 36 | 4.08 | 3.81 | 18.5 |
| Augusta ME | 36 | 4.33 | 2.50 | 18.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 36 | 4.36 | 2.97 | 18.5 |
| Concord NH | 36 | 4.89 | 3.72 | 18.5 |
| Albany NY | 36 | 5.06 | 2.94 | 18.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 35 | 5.20 | 2.80 | 18.0 |
| Carson City NV | 36 | 5.33 | 4.78 | 18.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 100.0°F | +2.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 95.0°F | 85.0°F | +10.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 92.0°F | 83.0°F | +9.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 98.0°F | 94.0°F | +4.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 92.0°F | 80.0°F | +12.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 36.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 35.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 76.0°F | +10.0° | 35.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 35.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 35.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 93.0°F | 86.0°F | +7.0° | 35.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 35.0 |