Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
71283
3421632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
9200 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-11 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 184 1.30 -0.03 48.0
Indianapolis IN 184 1.60 -0.44 48.0
Jefferson City MO 184 1.79 0.30 48.0
Honolulu HI 184 1.84 -1.12 48.0
Sacramento CA 184 1.88 -0.27 48.0
Austin TX 184 1.88 0.25 48.0
Albany NY 184 1.90 -0.78 48.0
Columbus OH 184 1.98 0.67 48.0
Lansing MI 184 2.08 1.20 48.0
Richmond VA 184 2.08 0.13 48.0
Nashville TN 184 2.10 -0.08 48.0
Annapolis MD 184 2.14 -0.54 48.0
Jackson MS 184 2.18 1.35 48.0
Cheyenne WY 184 2.18 -0.37 48.0
Saint Paul MN 184 2.26 0.55 48.0
Salem OR 184 2.26 0.11 48.0
Charleston WV 184 2.26 1.62 48.0
Augusta ME 184 2.27 -0.40 48.0
Raleigh NC 184 2.27 -0.53 48.0
Columbia SC 184 2.27 0.14 48.0
Trenton NJ 184 2.28 -1.98 48.0
Harrisburg PA 184 2.34 -1.28 48.0
Hartford CT 184 2.44 -1.58 48.0
Madison WI 184 2.47 1.08 48.0
Topeka KS 184 2.50 1.74 48.0
Atlanta GA 184 2.58 1.16 48.0
Providence RI 184 2.59 -2.39 48.0
Lincoln NE 184 2.64 1.58 48.0
Dover DE 184 2.66 -2.04 48.0
Frankfort KY 184 2.66 0.91 48.0
Tallahassee FL 184 2.84 -0.83 48.0
Des Moines IA 184 2.84 1.58 48.0
Boston MA 184 2.86 -0.45 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 184 2.89 1.65 48.0
Phoenix AZ 184 2.90 -2.43 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 184 2.90 1.43 48.0
Concord NH 184 2.98 -0.57 48.0
Montpelier VT 184 2.98 0.80 48.0
Helena MT 184 2.99 -1.64 48.0
Bismarck ND 184 3.03 1.16 48.0
Montgomery AL 184 3.14 0.74 48.0
Carson City NV 184 3.14 -0.91 48.0
Juneau AK 184 3.20 0.31 48.0
Olympia WA 184 3.32 0.28 48.0
Denver CO 184 3.38 0.77 48.0
Boise ID 184 3.39 0.99 48.0
Santa Fe NM 184 3.51 -2.39 48.0
Pierre SD 184 3.55 2.35 48.0
Springfield IL 184 3.65 3.17 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 184 3.67 -2.74 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 46.0°F 39.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 82.0°F 74.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 MDT Denver CO 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Dover DE 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 79.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 MDT Boise ID 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Concord NH 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 08:00 PDT Salem OR 52.0°F 53.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Providence RI 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0