Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
23783
1141632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.52°
8500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-03 01:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 170 1.38 -0.31 48.0
Honolulu HI 170 1.64 -1.38 48.0
Salem OR 170 1.70 0.75 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 170 1.77 1.09 48.0
Raleigh NC 170 1.94 0.14 48.0
Providence RI 170 1.98 -0.53 48.0
Trenton NJ 170 2.04 -1.11 48.0
Boston MA 170 2.06 0.42 48.0
Little Rock AR 170 2.16 -0.68 48.0
Charleston WV 170 2.16 1.54 48.0
Nashville TN 170 2.22 0.61 48.0
Sacramento CA 170 2.23 2.06 48.0
Saint Paul MN 170 2.25 0.22 48.0
Lansing MI 170 2.26 0.64 48.0
Carson City NV 170 2.26 1.49 48.0
Jefferson City MO 170 2.31 1.29 48.0
Jackson MS 170 2.32 0.95 48.0
Helena MT 170 2.33 -0.32 48.0
Augusta ME 170 2.34 -1.85 48.0
Annapolis MD 170 2.34 0.75 48.0
Harrisburg PA 170 2.38 -0.44 48.0
Des Moines IA 170 2.41 0.16 48.0
Austin TX 170 2.41 2.40 48.0
Hartford CT 170 2.42 -1.56 48.0
Columbus OH 170 2.44 0.38 48.0
Dover DE 170 2.46 -0.71 48.0
Lincoln NE 170 2.47 1.39 48.0
Juneau AK 170 2.48 0.92 48.0
Atlanta GA 170 2.48 0.46 48.0
Phoenix AZ 170 2.51 -1.18 48.0
Topeka KS 170 2.56 1.25 48.0
Indianapolis IN 170 2.58 1.05 48.0
Montpelier VT 170 2.65 1.52 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 170 2.71 1.54 48.0
Pierre SD 170 2.76 1.35 48.0
Madison WI 170 2.77 1.24 48.0
Olympia WA 170 2.79 -1.26 48.0
Albany NY 170 2.82 -0.51 48.0
Springfield IL 170 2.88 2.26 48.0
Montgomery AL 170 3.01 -1.12 48.0
Columbia SC 170 3.08 0.25 48.0
Bismarck ND 170 3.09 0.50 48.0
Denver CO 170 3.10 1.51 48.0
Boise ID 170 3.14 -0.01 48.0
Tallahassee FL 170 3.15 0.54 48.0
Frankfort KY 170 3.22 2.57 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 170 3.33 1.02 48.0
Cheyenne WY 170 3.34 0.62 48.0
Concord NH 170 3.35 -1.92 48.0
Santa Fe NM 170 3.45 -1.78 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 AKDT Juneau AK 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 MST Phoenix AZ 111.0°F 112.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 PDT Sacramento CA 100.0°F 102.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 19:00 MDT Denver CO 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Hartford CT 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 15:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 19:00 MDT Boise ID 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Springfield IL 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Frankfort KY 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Augusta ME 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Boston MA 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Lansing MI 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Jackson MS 85.0°F 79.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 19:00 MDT Helena MT 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Lincoln NE 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 PDT Carson City NV 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Concord NH 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Trenton NJ 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 19:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 83.0°F 91.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Albany NY 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Raleigh NC 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Bismarck ND 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Columbus OH 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 20:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 PDT Salem OR 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Providence RI 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 EDT Columbia SC 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0