Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.31 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.44 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.53 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.83 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.01 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.01 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.05 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.16 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.16 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.20 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.22 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.23 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.25 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.26 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.27 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.29 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.29 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.31 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.31 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.34 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.35 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.36 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.38 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.38 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.42 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.42 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.43 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.57 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.57 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.64 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.64 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.71 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.75 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.76 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.77 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.95 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.02 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.07 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.08 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.09 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.19 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.43 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.55 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.59 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 3.70 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.89 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 4.02 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 4.10 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 4.29 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 5.81 | 3.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |