Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.35 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.46 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.66 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.69 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.82 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.83 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.84 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.85 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 1.89 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 1.95 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.02 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.07 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.10 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.18 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.22 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.22 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.29 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.31 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.34 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.38 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.41 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.44 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.48 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.49 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.51 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.53 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.54 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.56 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.57 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.61 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.63 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.63 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.74 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.74 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.80 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.80 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.86 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.89 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.04 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.21 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.29 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.33 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.35 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 3.36 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.76 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.83 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 4.01 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 4.05 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 4.20 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 4.91 | 3.68 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 39.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |