Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.51 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.62 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 1.78 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.85 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.86 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 1.88 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 1.92 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.98 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.05 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.05 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.10 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.13 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.21 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.22 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.23 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.24 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.25 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.27 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.29 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.31 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.34 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.34 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.39 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.45 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.48 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.57 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.59 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.59 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.68 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.71 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.79 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.84 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.86 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.88 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.89 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.95 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.00 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 3.05 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.05 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.05 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.13 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.26 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.26 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.32 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.32 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.35 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.45 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.52 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.59 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.67 | -2.77 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 77.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 65.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 98.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 80.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 75.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 82.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |