Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lansing MI | 192 | 1.87 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.88 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.88 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.89 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.90 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 1.93 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.02 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.08 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.13 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.14 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.19 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.21 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 2.23 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.24 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.24 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.26 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.31 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.36 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.37 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.42 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.42 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.42 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.44 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.46 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.53 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.54 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.61 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.63 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.67 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.68 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.68 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.68 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.69 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.70 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.74 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.74 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.79 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.89 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.90 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.93 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.94 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.15 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 3.17 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.28 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.33 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.34 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.38 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.40 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.69 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 4.12 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 106.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 101.0°F | 96.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 90.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 82.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 74.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 99.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 84.0°F | 75.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 73.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |