Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.41 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.54 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 1.69 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 1.71 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 1.81 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.99 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.09 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.13 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.14 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.15 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.15 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.19 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.25 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.27 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.27 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.29 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.30 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.33 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.33 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.35 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.36 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.38 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.40 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.42 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.43 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.50 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.52 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.60 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.62 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.70 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 2.71 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.72 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.72 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.72 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.74 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.77 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.80 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.80 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.90 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.95 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.97 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.99 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.99 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.17 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.19 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.19 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.20 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 3.23 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.29 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 3.53 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 112.0°F | 113.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 101.0°F | 100.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 100.0°F | 100.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 82.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 87.0°F | 92.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 98.0°F | 103.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |