Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.39 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.51 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.64 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.69 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 1.83 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.85 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.91 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 1.92 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.95 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 1.96 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.01 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.09 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.15 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.19 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.24 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.26 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.29 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.31 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.33 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.37 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.38 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.40 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.41 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.42 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.48 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.51 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.53 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.55 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.55 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.58 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.58 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.58 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.59 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.71 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.76 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.87 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.91 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 3.02 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.06 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.07 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.21 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 3.26 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.29 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.38 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.81 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.85 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.88 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 4.01 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 4.06 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 4.67 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 MST | Denver CO | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Hartford CT | 33.0°F | 30.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Dover DE | 41.0°F | 33.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 MST | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Augusta ME | 30.0°F | 35.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Boston MA | 36.0°F | 40.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 MST | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 40.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 PST | Carson City NV | 36.0°F | 41.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Concord NH | 26.0°F | 23.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 36.0°F | 37.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 53.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Albany NY | 33.0°F | 30.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 PST | Salem OR | 42.0°F | 37.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 42.0°F | 38.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Providence RI | 35.0°F | 33.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 EST | Columbia SC | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |