Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.58 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.65 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 1.80 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 1.81 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.82 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 1.87 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 1.88 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.92 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.92 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.00 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.02 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.08 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.11 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.23 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.25 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.29 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.30 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.31 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.34 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.36 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.37 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.38 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.45 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.47 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.47 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.51 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.62 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.64 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.69 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.81 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.83 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.83 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.84 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.85 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.88 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.88 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.90 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.90 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.95 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.96 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 3.08 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 3.22 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.22 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.33 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.40 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.41 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.43 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.44 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.75 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.79 | 3.22 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 100.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |