Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.49 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.62 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 1.64 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 1.88 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.98 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.05 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.06 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.15 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.16 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.17 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.19 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.19 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.24 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.24 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.28 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.30 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.30 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.33 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.34 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.34 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.36 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.38 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.39 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.41 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.42 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.43 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.48 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.52 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.53 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.53 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.53 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.61 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.62 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.66 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.71 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.77 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.87 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.89 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.91 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.95 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 3.02 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 3.03 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 3.04 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.10 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.10 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.24 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.25 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.38 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.41 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 111.0°F | 111.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 100.0°F | 101.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 95.0°F | 88.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |