Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.56 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.90 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.92 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 1.92 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 1.95 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 1.96 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.02 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.04 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.05 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.15 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.17 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.23 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.23 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.24 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.26 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.30 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.30 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.31 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.34 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.43 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.46 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.48 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.53 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.54 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.55 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.56 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.58 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.59 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.65 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.75 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.77 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.78 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.79 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.79 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.81 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.84 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.92 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.94 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.96 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 3.01 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.11 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.14 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.23 | -3.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.27 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 3.36 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.52 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.58 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.65 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 4.18 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 17:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 MST | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 54.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 MST | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Springfield IL | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Topeka KS | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Jackson MS | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 MST | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 40.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 PST | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 19:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 20:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 18:00 PST | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 21:00 EST | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |