Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.65 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.69 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.79 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.81 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 1.84 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 1.87 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 1.88 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 1.92 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 1.93 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.95 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 1.95 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.95 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 1.99 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.01 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.13 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.20 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.22 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.22 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.23 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.34 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.37 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.45 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.45 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.46 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.49 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.57 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.66 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.67 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.68 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.77 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.84 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.85 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.85 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.88 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.89 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.90 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.98 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.05 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 3.12 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.12 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 3.18 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.20 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 3.32 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.36 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.44 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.47 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 3.51 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.55 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.76 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.97 | -3.09 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 64.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |