Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.37 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.73 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 1.89 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.92 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.99 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.12 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.17 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.32 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.33 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.38 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.39 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.40 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.47 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.48 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.54 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.58 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.60 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.67 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.67 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.67 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.74 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.76 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.76 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.82 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.82 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.85 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.88 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.90 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.93 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.95 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.98 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.99 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.01 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.10 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.11 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 3.13 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.15 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 3.24 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.25 | -2.81 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.44 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 3.50 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.51 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.54 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.56 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.67 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 3.73 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.81 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.83 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 4.06 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 4.14 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 91.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 71.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 36.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |