Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.29 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.53 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.77 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.78 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.02 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.11 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.22 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.26 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.30 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.30 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.30 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.30 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.34 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.35 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.37 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.38 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.44 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.45 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.51 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.51 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.53 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.56 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.56 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.56 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.63 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.73 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.75 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.76 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.77 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.78 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.83 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.84 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.87 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.90 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.93 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.95 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.96 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.97 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.05 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.11 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.40 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.41 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.57 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.58 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 3.75 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.97 | 3.60 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 4.01 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 4.62 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 4.94 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 5.49 | 3.88 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 65.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |