Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence RI | 190 | 1.63 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.64 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 1.71 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.78 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 1.80 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.81 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.82 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.95 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 1.96 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 1.99 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 1.99 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.02 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.07 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.11 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.14 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.14 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.30 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.31 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.36 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.40 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.45 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.49 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.52 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.52 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.53 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.55 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.64 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.65 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.74 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.77 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.81 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.83 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.84 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.89 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.90 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.91 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.93 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.95 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.96 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.99 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 3.04 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 3.10 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.14 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 3.33 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.35 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.37 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.37 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.41 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.59 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 4.81 | 4.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 82.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 107.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 100.0°F | 101.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 81.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 95.0°F | 98.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 100.0°F | 100.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 102.0°F | 103.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 88.0°F | 78.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 102.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |