Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.38 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.54 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.57 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.59 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.69 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.76 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.82 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 1.93 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.95 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 1.98 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.04 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.09 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.14 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.16 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.18 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.21 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.31 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.37 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.37 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.38 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.38 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.40 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.42 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.47 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.47 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.55 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.65 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.65 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.67 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.67 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.69 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.72 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.77 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.95 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.99 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.02 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 3.05 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 3.07 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 3.27 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 3.32 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.34 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 3.40 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.45 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.49 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.54 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.65 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 4.02 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 4.11 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 4.16 | 3.19 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 4.77 | 3.79 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 32.0°F | 23.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 38.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 29.0°F | 34.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 36.0°F | 46.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 62.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 29.0°F | 34.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 42.0°F | 48.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |