Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.45 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 1.63 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.67 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 1.81 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 1.90 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.02 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.03 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.08 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.08 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.11 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.17 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.19 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.20 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.20 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.28 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.30 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.31 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.32 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.33 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.35 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.35 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.37 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.37 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.38 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.39 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.43 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.47 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.47 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.51 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.51 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 2.53 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.58 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.65 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.65 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.68 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.75 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.78 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.81 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.85 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.88 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.89 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.92 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.94 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.95 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.96 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.05 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 3.10 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.22 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.31 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.38 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |