Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.33 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.43 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.74 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 1.83 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 1.86 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.92 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 1.96 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 1.96 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.99 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.20 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.24 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.24 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.25 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.27 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.28 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.31 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.37 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.38 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.40 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.40 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.43 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.44 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.46 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.48 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.48 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.51 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.52 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.53 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.60 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.62 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.71 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.71 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.75 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.80 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.85 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.87 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.89 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.97 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.03 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.08 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 3.09 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.17 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 3.21 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.24 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.34 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.56 | 3.23 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.60 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.65 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 4.37 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 4.59 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 58.0°F | 49.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 37.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |