Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 86 | 1.17 | 0.36 | 34.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 86 | 1.23 | 0.07 | 34.9 |
| Jackson MS | 86 | 1.27 | -0.15 | 34.9 |
| Columbus OH | 85 | 1.36 | 0.85 | 34.7 |
| Honolulu HI | 86 | 1.47 | 0.21 | 34.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 86 | 1.58 | 0.14 | 34.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 85 | 1.61 | 0.25 | 34.7 |
| Madison WI | 85 | 1.68 | 0.93 | 34.7 |
| Little Rock AR | 86 | 1.83 | -0.24 | 34.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 86 | 1.88 | 0.47 | 34.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 86 | 1.88 | 1.02 | 34.9 |
| Juneau AK | 86 | 1.93 | 0.91 | 34.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 86 | 1.95 | -0.21 | 34.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 86 | 1.95 | 0.81 | 34.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 86 | 1.97 | 0.38 | 34.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 86 | 1.99 | 0.85 | 34.9 |
| Nashville TN | 85 | 2.11 | -0.22 | 34.7 |
| Montgomery AL | 86 | 2.24 | -1.03 | 34.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 85 | 2.27 | -0.29 | 34.7 |
| Atlanta GA | 86 | 2.29 | -1.38 | 34.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 85 | 2.29 | 1.49 | 34.7 |
| Bismarck ND | 86 | 2.40 | 2.00 | 34.9 |
| Richmond VA | 85 | 2.41 | 2.01 | 34.7 |
| Pierre SD | 85 | 2.46 | 2.41 | 34.7 |
| Springfield IL | 86 | 2.52 | 2.20 | 34.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 86 | 2.65 | 2.28 | 34.9 |
| Topeka KS | 86 | 2.71 | 2.64 | 34.9 |
| Salem OR | 85 | 2.81 | 2.27 | 34.7 |
| Charleston WV | 85 | 2.91 | 2.84 | 34.7 |
| Trenton NJ | 86 | 2.99 | 2.66 | 34.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 86 | 3.01 | -1.59 | 34.9 |
| Denver CO | 86 | 3.12 | 2.56 | 34.9 |
| Helena MT | 86 | 3.13 | 2.10 | 34.9 |
| Carson City NV | 86 | 3.19 | 2.14 | 34.9 |
| Lansing MI | 86 | 3.20 | 2.85 | 34.9 |
| Olympia WA | 85 | 3.20 | 0.40 | 34.7 |
| Dover DE | 86 | 3.26 | 1.19 | 34.9 |
| Boise ID | 86 | 3.27 | 1.38 | 34.9 |
| Austin TX | 85 | 3.36 | 2.49 | 34.7 |
| Columbia SC | 85 | 3.42 | -3.26 | 34.7 |
| Hartford CT | 86 | 3.44 | 2.67 | 34.9 |
| Providence RI | 85 | 3.47 | 3.35 | 34.7 |
| Augusta ME | 86 | 3.63 | 1.53 | 34.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 85 | 3.71 | 2.55 | 34.7 |
| Boston MA | 86 | 3.73 | 3.20 | 34.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 86 | 4.15 | 4.15 | 34.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 86 | 4.31 | 3.13 | 34.9 |
| Concord NH | 86 | 4.73 | 4.10 | 34.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 85 | 4.88 | 2.13 | 34.7 |
| Albany NY | 86 | 4.92 | 4.01 | 34.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 82.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 90.0°F | 84.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 92.0°F | 85.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |