Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.58 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.64 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.69 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 1.70 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 1.83 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 1.94 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.97 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 1.97 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.99 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.04 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.07 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.16 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.17 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.20 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.23 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.30 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.31 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.32 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.32 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.36 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.36 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.36 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.37 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.40 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.44 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.49 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.54 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.54 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.59 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.66 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.70 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.71 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.74 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.78 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.85 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.87 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.87 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.89 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.89 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.89 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 2.96 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.01 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.12 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.61 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.68 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.69 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 3.76 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.78 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.78 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 4.82 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 40.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 68.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |