Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 175 | 1.31 | 0.10 | 41.6 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 1.36 | 0.50 | 41.6 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.70 | -0.85 | 41.6 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.79 | -0.87 | 41.6 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.83 | 0.38 | 41.6 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.84 | -0.06 | 41.6 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 1.85 | 0.75 | 41.6 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 1.94 | -0.61 | 41.6 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.03 | 1.11 | 41.5 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.05 | 0.89 | 41.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.09 | 0.78 | 41.6 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.12 | 0.07 | 41.6 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.13 | 0.74 | 41.6 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.15 | 1.79 | 41.6 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.20 | 1.11 | 41.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.21 | -0.01 | 41.6 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.22 | 0.51 | 41.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.23 | 0.14 | 41.6 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.28 | 0.10 | 41.5 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.30 | 1.48 | 41.5 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.33 | 1.47 | 41.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.35 | 0.86 | 41.6 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.39 | 1.67 | 41.6 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.46 | 2.17 | 41.6 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.53 | 2.24 | 41.6 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.56 | 2.07 | 41.6 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.59 | 1.99 | 41.6 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.59 | 1.26 | 41.5 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.73 | 1.61 | 41.6 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.78 | 1.63 | 41.6 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.80 | 1.50 | 41.6 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.80 | -1.25 | 41.5 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.82 | 0.41 | 41.6 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.83 | 1.99 | 41.6 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.93 | 1.02 | 41.6 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.97 | 0.75 | 41.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 3.01 | 1.93 | 41.5 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 3.01 | 2.24 | 41.5 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 3.07 | -2.74 | 41.5 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 3.13 | 1.27 | 41.6 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 3.39 | 2.22 | 41.6 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.39 | -1.49 | 41.6 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.49 | 3.39 | 41.6 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.52 | 2.94 | 41.5 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.61 | 2.97 | 41.6 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.62 | 3.54 | 41.5 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 3.67 | 2.69 | 41.6 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.73 | 2.61 | 41.6 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 4.12 | 1.40 | 41.6 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 4.16 | 1.43 | 41.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |