Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.32 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.51 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 1.60 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 1.76 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.77 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.87 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.91 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.10 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.11 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.18 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.18 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.19 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.19 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.22 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.25 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.25 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.25 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.26 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.28 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.29 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.39 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.40 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.42 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.43 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.47 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.52 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.58 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.61 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.65 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.73 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.74 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.82 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.83 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.84 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.84 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.87 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.93 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.94 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.96 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 3.01 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.05 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.07 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.08 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.19 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.21 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.29 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.34 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.37 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.52 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 3.57 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 85.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 110.0°F | 113.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |