Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.46 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.46 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.78 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.81 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.05 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.05 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.05 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.07 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.09 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.17 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.19 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.21 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.25 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.28 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.30 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.36 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.37 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.39 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.41 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.43 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.45 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.49 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.54 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.56 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.58 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.64 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.66 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.71 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.88 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.93 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.96 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.96 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.98 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.03 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.10 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 3.12 | -2.83 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.14 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 3.17 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.18 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.30 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 3.31 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.38 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.39 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.46 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.50 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 3.51 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.64 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 3.77 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.96 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.98 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 34.0°F | 27.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 40.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 42.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 51.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 28.0°F | 33.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 32.0°F | 30.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 33.0°F | 23.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 42.0°F | 49.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 40.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |