Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
17483
839232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.68°
9400 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-28 19:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 188 1.44 -0.95 48.0
Providence RI 188 1.61 -0.06 48.0
Little Rock AR 188 1.78 -0.09 48.0
Augusta ME 188 1.80 -0.62 48.0
Hartford CT 188 1.87 0.03 48.0
Trenton NJ 188 1.89 -0.05 48.0
Jackson MS 188 1.93 1.03 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 188 2.07 1.60 48.0
Atlanta GA 188 2.09 0.38 48.0
Austin TX 188 2.13 1.64 48.0
Concord NH 188 2.17 0.48 48.0
Albany NY 188 2.22 -0.08 48.0
Boston MA 188 2.23 1.38 48.0
Harrisburg PA 188 2.23 -0.70 48.0
Tallahassee FL 188 2.24 0.09 48.0
Richmond VA 188 2.29 0.37 48.0
Charleston WV 188 2.32 0.05 48.0
Helena MT 188 2.39 0.84 48.0
Dover DE 188 2.42 0.32 48.0
Annapolis MD 188 2.44 0.71 48.0
Jefferson City MO 188 2.47 0.51 48.0
Lansing MI 188 2.51 1.08 48.0
Raleigh NC 188 2.58 1.08 48.0
Nashville TN 188 2.60 0.47 48.0
Carson City NV 188 2.62 1.41 48.0
Columbus OH 188 2.62 1.72 48.0
Springfield IL 188 2.63 2.18 48.0
Juneau AK 188 2.69 0.69 48.0
Montgomery AL 188 2.72 1.22 48.0
Indianapolis IN 188 2.76 1.38 48.0
Columbia SC 188 2.79 -0.87 48.0
Santa Fe NM 188 2.86 -0.88 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 188 2.86 -1.34 48.0
Madison WI 188 2.93 1.15 48.0
Saint Paul MN 188 2.97 1.80 48.0
Sacramento CA 188 3.02 1.39 48.0
Salem OR 188 3.07 1.49 48.0
Des Moines IA 188 3.12 0.80 48.0
Topeka KS 188 3.12 1.12 48.0
Montpelier VT 188 3.14 1.65 48.0
Cheyenne WY 188 3.14 -0.06 48.0
Olympia WA 188 3.21 -1.66 48.0
Lincoln NE 188 3.34 1.63 48.0
Boise ID 188 3.38 2.87 48.0
Phoenix AZ 188 3.44 0.04 48.0
Denver CO 188 3.73 1.19 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 188 3.80 3.31 48.0
Frankfort KY 188 3.96 3.35 48.0
Bismarck ND 188 4.01 3.34 48.0
Pierre SD 188 4.57 3.64 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Montgomery AL 98.0°F 95.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 AKDT Juneau AK 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 MST Phoenix AZ 104.0°F 97.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Little Rock AR 101.0°F 101.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 PDT Sacramento CA 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 13:00 MDT Denver CO 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Dover DE 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Atlanta GA 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 09:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 13:00 MDT Boise ID 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Springfield IL 89.0°F 84.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Des Moines IA 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Topeka KS 92.0°F 83.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Frankfort KY 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 96.0°F 93.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Boston MA 79.0°F 85.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Lansing MI 79.0°F 72.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Jackson MS 99.0°F 95.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 93.0°F 85.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 13:00 MDT Helena MT 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Lincoln NE 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 PDT Carson City NV 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Concord NH 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Trenton NJ 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 13:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Albany NY 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Raleigh NC 90.0°F 85.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Bismarck ND 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Columbus OH 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 101.0°F 100.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 PDT Salem OR 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Providence RI 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 EDT Columbia SC 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 48.0