Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
69483
3335232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.60°
8600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-10 03:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 172 1.12 0.38 48.0
Indianapolis IN 172 1.48 -0.22 48.0
Sacramento CA 172 1.61 -0.22 48.0
Honolulu HI 172 1.67 -0.88 48.0
Jefferson City MO 172 1.67 0.31 48.0
Nashville TN 172 1.85 0.39 48.0
Albany NY 172 1.90 -0.67 48.0
Columbus OH 172 1.97 0.70 48.0
Harrisburg PA 172 2.01 -0.08 48.0
Raleigh NC 172 2.06 0.09 48.0
Austin TX 172 2.11 -0.16 48.0
Salem OR 172 2.13 0.49 48.0
Columbia SC 172 2.13 0.39 48.0
Annapolis MD 172 2.17 0.02 48.0
Trenton NJ 172 2.20 -1.41 48.0
Hartford CT 172 2.23 -1.16 48.0
Cheyenne WY 172 2.23 -0.50 48.0
Lansing MI 172 2.33 1.55 48.0
Charleston WV 172 2.35 1.84 48.0
Augusta ME 172 2.40 0.00 48.0
Providence RI 172 2.41 -2.22 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 172 2.42 1.30 48.0
Jackson MS 172 2.43 1.67 48.0
Dover DE 172 2.48 -1.18 48.0
Frankfort KY 172 2.54 1.44 48.0
Richmond VA 172 2.54 0.90 48.0
Topeka KS 172 2.56 1.83 48.0
Lincoln NE 172 2.58 2.06 48.0
Saint Paul MN 172 2.59 0.24 48.0
Atlanta GA 172 2.66 1.08 48.0
Madison WI 172 2.83 1.65 48.0
Juneau AK 172 2.89 -0.39 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 172 2.91 1.27 48.0
Boston MA 172 2.92 0.30 48.0
Helena MT 172 2.92 -1.25 48.0
Des Moines IA 172 2.94 1.62 48.0
Montpelier VT 172 3.12 0.66 48.0
Carson City NV 172 3.14 -1.48 48.0
Concord NH 172 3.15 -0.37 48.0
Bismarck ND 172 3.15 1.31 48.0
Tallahassee FL 172 3.16 -1.81 48.0
Phoenix AZ 172 3.18 -2.81 48.0
Montgomery AL 172 3.25 0.65 48.0
Denver CO 172 3.31 0.88 48.0
Olympia WA 172 3.31 -0.29 48.0
Springfield IL 172 3.46 3.31 48.0
Santa Fe NM 172 3.66 -2.62 48.0
Boise ID 172 3.70 1.41 48.0
Pierre SD 172 3.98 1.87 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 172 4.01 -3.41 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 87.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 19:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 58.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 20:00 MST Phoenix AZ 101.0°F 102.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 20:00 PDT Sacramento CA 90.0°F 84.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 21:00 MDT Denver CO 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Hartford CT 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 17:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 21:00 MDT Boise ID 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Springfield IL 77.0°F 69.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Des Moines IA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Topeka KS 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Frankfort KY 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Augusta ME 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Lansing MI 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Jackson MS 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 77.0°F 70.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 21:00 MDT Helena MT 63.0°F 68.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Lincoln NE 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 20:00 PDT Carson City NV 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Concord NH 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Trenton NJ 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 21:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Albany NY 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Bismarck ND 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Columbus OH 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 22:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 20:00 PDT Salem OR 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Providence RI 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 23:00 EDT Columbia SC 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0