Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.38 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.51 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.61 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.72 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.81 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.89 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 1.89 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 1.93 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.94 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.94 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 1.99 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.04 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.13 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.14 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.22 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.22 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.28 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.31 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.35 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.37 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.38 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.39 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.41 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.45 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.49 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.50 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.52 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.53 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.54 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.59 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.60 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.62 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.69 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.69 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.78 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.84 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.86 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.98 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.00 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.02 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.13 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 3.21 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.23 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.31 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.79 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.82 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.83 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 3.91 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 4.07 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 4.48 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 MST | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 67.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 MST | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 MST | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 PST | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 63.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 PST | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 EST | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |