Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.53 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.61 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 1.65 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 1.90 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.04 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.04 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.06 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.14 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.14 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.17 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.18 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.19 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.22 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.22 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.27 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.30 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.32 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.32 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.35 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.35 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.36 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.36 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.39 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.42 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.42 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.43 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.49 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.52 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.54 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.54 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.55 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.58 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.63 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 2.66 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.68 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.70 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.75 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.88 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.88 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.89 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.95 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.98 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.02 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 3.07 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.07 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.11 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.21 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.23 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.36 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.41 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 111.0°F | 115.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 103.0°F | 104.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 89.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 83.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 88.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |