Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.46 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.53 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.55 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.57 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.75 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 1.79 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.81 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.84 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.99 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.13 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.14 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.15 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.21 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.24 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.30 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.33 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.36 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.39 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.41 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.44 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.51 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.58 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.59 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.65 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.67 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.68 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.69 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.77 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.81 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.86 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.87 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.98 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.00 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.02 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.16 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 3.19 | -2.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.26 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.26 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.32 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 3.38 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.39 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 3.46 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.57 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.58 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 3.63 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.83 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 4.07 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 4.11 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 4.14 | 3.14 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 32.0°F | 26.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 36.0°F | 39.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 34.0°F | 38.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 28.0°F | 31.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 48.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 35.0°F | 32.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 36.0°F | 32.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 31.0°F | 29.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |