Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.42 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.51 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.77 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.94 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.94 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.01 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.02 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.04 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.13 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.17 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.23 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.33 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.39 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.41 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.45 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.48 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.49 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.49 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.51 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.52 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.54 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.55 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.57 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.57 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.58 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.69 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.71 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.74 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.80 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.86 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.98 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.98 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 3.08 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.08 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.09 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 3.19 | -2.96 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 3.19 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.21 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 3.24 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.27 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.32 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.38 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 3.38 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.46 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.50 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.57 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.68 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 3.72 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.95 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 4.29 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 51.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |