Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.41 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.50 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.77 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.83 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 1.84 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 1.95 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.01 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.10 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.17 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.20 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.26 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.34 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.42 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.45 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.46 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.47 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.50 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.53 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.53 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.54 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.54 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.57 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.64 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.67 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.68 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.71 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.80 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.86 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.87 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.95 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.96 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.00 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.15 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 3.17 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.24 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.26 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.31 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.32 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 3.33 | -3.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.34 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.34 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.38 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 3.43 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 3.43 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.54 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.69 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.74 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 3.96 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 4.14 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 4.36 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 58.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 37.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 40.0°F | 46.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 49.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 33.0°F | 33.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |