Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.39 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.49 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.63 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.68 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 1.83 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.84 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.91 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.93 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 1.93 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.95 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.01 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.05 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.13 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.17 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.22 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.24 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.30 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.31 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.32 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.37 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.38 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.38 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.40 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.48 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.48 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.51 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.52 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.54 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.56 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.57 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.57 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.57 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.61 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.73 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.73 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.86 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.88 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 3.02 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.03 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.04 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.17 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 3.24 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.28 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.35 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.81 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.83 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.84 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.97 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 4.08 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 4.57 | 3.19 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 MST | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 MST | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 MST | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 PST | Carson City NV | 34.0°F | 39.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 PST | Salem OR | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 EST | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |