Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
71983
3455232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-12 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 174 1.61 -0.38 48.0
Little Rock AR 174 1.63 0.26 48.0
Jefferson City MO 174 1.79 0.21 48.0
Columbus OH 174 1.82 0.29 48.0
Lansing MI 174 1.83 0.77 48.0
Albany NY 174 1.87 -0.80 48.0
Annapolis MD 174 1.89 -1.04 48.0
Honolulu HI 174 1.94 -1.21 48.0
Austin TX 174 1.97 0.26 48.0
Jackson MS 174 2.01 1.16 48.0
Richmond VA 174 2.01 -0.07 48.0
Sacramento CA 174 2.07 -0.03 48.0
Cheyenne WY 174 2.14 -0.14 48.0
Trenton NJ 174 2.21 -1.82 48.0
Hartford CT 174 2.24 -1.29 48.0
Charleston WV 174 2.28 1.67 48.0
Nashville TN 174 2.29 -0.19 48.0
Salem OR 174 2.32 -0.30 48.0
Columbia SC 174 2.33 0.09 48.0
Augusta ME 174 2.36 -0.43 48.0
Saint Paul MN 174 2.37 0.22 48.0
Madison WI 174 2.40 0.61 48.0
Topeka KS 174 2.44 1.58 48.0
Raleigh NC 174 2.45 -0.84 48.0
Harrisburg PA 174 2.48 -1.56 48.0
Providence RI 174 2.50 -2.29 48.0
Lincoln NE 174 2.59 1.39 48.0
Atlanta GA 174 2.63 1.25 48.0
Boise ID 174 2.72 -0.12 48.0
Bismarck ND 174 2.78 0.76 48.0
Helena MT 174 2.83 -0.76 48.0
Boston MA 174 2.84 -1.31 48.0
Concord NH 174 2.84 -0.20 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 174 2.84 1.29 48.0
Carson City NV 174 2.87 -0.70 48.0
Dover DE 174 2.90 -2.14 48.0
Frankfort KY 174 2.90 0.97 48.0
Phoenix AZ 174 2.91 -2.34 48.0
Des Moines IA 174 2.93 1.66 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 174 2.96 1.51 48.0
Juneau AK 174 3.09 -0.29 48.0
Montpelier VT 174 3.20 0.98 48.0
Tallahassee FL 174 3.21 -0.14 48.0
Denver CO 174 3.32 0.85 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 174 3.37 -2.40 48.0
Montgomery AL 174 3.41 1.44 48.0
Pierre SD 174 3.43 2.06 48.0
Olympia WA 174 3.43 0.47 48.0
Springfield IL 174 3.78 3.15 48.0
Santa Fe NM 174 3.79 -2.68 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 47.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 94.0°F 98.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 MDT Denver CO 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Dover DE 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 MDT Boise ID 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Boston MA 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 MDT Helena MT 54.0°F 50.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Concord NH 51.0°F 49.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 69.0°F 75.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Albany NY 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Providence RI 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0