Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.53 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.55 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.62 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.75 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.75 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.82 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.88 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.00 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.06 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.07 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.07 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.07 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.10 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.10 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.13 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.29 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.30 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.30 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.31 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.31 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.31 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.34 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.42 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.43 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.47 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.49 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.54 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.57 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.61 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.61 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.61 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.69 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.72 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.76 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.76 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.81 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.84 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.88 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.96 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.10 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.20 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 3.33 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.37 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.41 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.57 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.69 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.81 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.92 | -2.44 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 3.93 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 04:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 05:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 06:00 MST | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Hartford CT | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Dover DE | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 06:00 MST | Boise ID | 37.0°F | 37.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 06:00 MST | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 41.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 05:00 PST | Carson City NV | 28.0°F | 32.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 06:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 05:00 PST | Salem OR | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 EST | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |