Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 57 | 0.86 | 0.30 | 28.2 |
| Raleigh NC | 57 | 1.18 | -0.30 | 28.2 |
| Columbus OH | 56 | 1.20 | 0.63 | 27.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 57 | 1.23 | 0.18 | 28.2 |
| Tallahassee FL | 57 | 1.26 | -0.42 | 28.2 |
| Annapolis MD | 57 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 28.2 |
| Honolulu HI | 57 | 1.39 | 0.58 | 28.2 |
| Cheyenne WY | 56 | 1.45 | 0.27 | 27.9 |
| Jackson MS | 57 | 1.46 | -0.33 | 28.2 |
| Harrisburg PA | 56 | 1.64 | 0.64 | 27.9 |
| Juneau AK | 57 | 1.65 | 1.30 | 28.2 |
| Nashville TN | 56 | 1.71 | -0.21 | 27.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 57 | 1.75 | 0.07 | 28.2 |
| Indianapolis IN | 57 | 1.81 | 0.96 | 28.2 |
| Little Rock AR | 57 | 1.82 | 0.49 | 28.2 |
| Madison WI | 56 | 1.84 | 1.09 | 27.9 |
| Topeka KS | 57 | 1.93 | 1.82 | 28.2 |
| Frankfort KY | 57 | 1.93 | 0.21 | 28.2 |
| Des Moines IA | 57 | 1.98 | 0.44 | 28.2 |
| Richmond VA | 56 | 1.98 | 1.59 | 27.9 |
| Salem OR | 56 | 2.02 | 1.48 | 27.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 57 | 2.12 | -0.79 | 28.2 |
| Lansing MI | 57 | 2.16 | 1.63 | 28.2 |
| Bismarck ND | 57 | 2.16 | 2.16 | 28.2 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 56 | 2.20 | -0.23 | 27.9 |
| Springfield IL | 57 | 2.33 | 1.95 | 28.2 |
| Atlanta GA | 57 | 2.42 | -2.14 | 28.2 |
| Trenton NJ | 57 | 2.56 | 2.07 | 28.2 |
| Dover DE | 57 | 2.65 | 0.51 | 28.2 |
| Boise ID | 57 | 2.70 | 1.68 | 28.2 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 56 | 2.71 | 0.96 | 27.9 |
| Pierre SD | 56 | 2.73 | 2.70 | 27.9 |
| Helena MT | 57 | 2.77 | 1.40 | 28.2 |
| Denver CO | 57 | 3.00 | 2.40 | 28.2 |
| Santa Fe NM | 57 | 3.00 | -1.18 | 28.2 |
| Olympia WA | 56 | 3.04 | -0.68 | 27.9 |
| Charleston WV | 56 | 3.07 | 3.07 | 27.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 57 | 3.33 | 3.16 | 28.2 |
| Lincoln NE | 57 | 3.37 | 3.37 | 28.2 |
| Columbia SC | 56 | 3.50 | -3.50 | 27.9 |
| Augusta ME | 57 | 3.58 | 1.65 | 28.2 |
| Hartford CT | 57 | 3.61 | 2.49 | 28.2 |
| Phoenix AZ | 57 | 3.68 | 2.49 | 28.2 |
| Austin TX | 56 | 3.73 | 3.27 | 27.9 |
| Providence RI | 56 | 4.05 | 3.98 | 27.9 |
| Carson City NV | 57 | 4.23 | 3.56 | 28.2 |
| Boston MA | 57 | 4.32 | 3.96 | 28.2 |
| Montpelier VT | 56 | 5.05 | 2.27 | 27.9 |
| Concord NH | 57 | 5.19 | 4.46 | 28.2 |
| Albany NY | 57 | 5.37 | 4.04 | 28.2 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 71.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |