Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
73483
3527232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
9000 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-13 11:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 180 1.61 -0.67 48.0
Indianapolis IN 180 1.63 -0.21 48.0
Trenton NJ 180 1.78 -1.34 48.0
Little Rock AR 180 1.82 0.31 48.0
Albany NY 180 1.82 -0.63 48.0
Jackson MS 180 1.89 0.38 48.0
Jefferson City MO 180 1.91 0.27 48.0
Charleston WV 180 1.91 1.17 48.0
Sacramento CA 180 1.94 -0.19 48.0
Columbus OH 180 1.94 0.10 48.0
Austin TX 180 1.94 0.59 48.0
Annapolis MD 180 1.97 -1.22 48.0
Lansing MI 180 1.97 0.43 48.0
Honolulu HI 180 1.98 -1.21 48.0
Saint Paul MN 180 2.07 -0.48 48.0
Harrisburg PA 180 2.17 -1.20 48.0
Hartford CT 180 2.21 -0.83 48.0
Raleigh NC 180 2.22 -1.22 48.0
Nashville TN 180 2.23 -0.31 48.0
Augusta ME 180 2.31 0.04 48.0
Salem OR 180 2.33 -0.44 48.0
Phoenix AZ 180 2.39 -1.58 48.0
Columbia SC 180 2.39 0.07 48.0
Providence RI 180 2.45 -1.82 48.0
Madison WI 180 2.54 0.51 48.0
Atlanta GA 180 2.61 1.28 48.0
Cheyenne WY 180 2.63 0.88 48.0
Bismarck ND 180 2.67 0.68 48.0
Frankfort KY 180 2.74 0.53 48.0
Boise ID 180 2.77 -1.04 48.0
Boston MA 180 2.78 -1.03 48.0
Des Moines IA 180 2.83 1.87 48.0
Concord NH 180 2.83 0.34 48.0
Dover DE 180 2.84 -2.02 48.0
Montgomery AL 180 2.89 0.65 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 180 2.91 -1.37 48.0
Topeka KS 180 3.01 2.28 48.0
Helena MT 180 3.02 -1.01 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 180 3.12 1.26 48.0
Lincoln NE 180 3.13 2.02 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 180 3.14 0.85 48.0
Tallahassee FL 180 3.19 0.03 48.0
Olympia WA 180 3.30 0.60 48.0
Carson City NV 180 3.34 -1.11 48.0
Montpelier VT 180 3.41 1.67 48.0
Denver CO 180 3.46 1.58 48.0
Pierre SD 180 3.54 2.60 48.0
Juneau AK 180 3.64 0.92 48.0
Springfield IL 180 3.68 2.69 48.0
Santa Fe NM 180 3.86 -2.94 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Montgomery AL 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 AKDT Juneau AK 46.0°F 38.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 MST Phoenix AZ 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Little Rock AR 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 PDT Sacramento CA 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 MDT Denver CO 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Hartford CT 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 01:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 MDT Boise ID 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Springfield IL 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Des Moines IA 61.0°F 56.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Topeka KS 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Frankfort KY 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Augusta ME 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Boston MA 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Lansing MI 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Jackson MS 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 MDT Helena MT 48.0°F 49.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Lincoln NE 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 PDT Carson City NV 50.0°F 63.0°F -13.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Concord NH 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Trenton NJ 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Albany NY 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Raleigh NC 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Bismarck ND 48.0°F 51.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Columbus OH 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 06:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 PDT Salem OR 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Providence RI 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 07:00 EDT Columbia SC 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0