Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.27 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.58 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 1.61 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 1.67 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.69 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 1.84 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.91 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.93 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 1.95 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.01 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.03 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.07 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.13 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.16 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.20 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.21 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.24 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.26 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.30 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.33 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.34 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.36 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.37 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.41 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.43 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.43 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.47 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.59 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.60 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.63 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.64 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.66 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.68 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.70 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.71 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.76 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.82 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.82 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.84 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.99 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 3.03 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.06 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.15 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.32 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.34 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.45 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.45 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.50 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.64 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 3.87 | 3.55 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 104.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |