Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.45 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.47 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.74 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.87 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 1.97 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 1.99 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.02 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.08 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.20 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.20 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.21 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.27 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.33 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.39 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.41 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.41 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.44 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.51 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.52 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.53 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.54 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.55 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.56 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.60 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.60 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.67 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.80 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.80 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.89 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.90 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.94 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.99 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.05 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.06 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.09 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.12 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 3.16 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 3.21 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.21 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 3.28 | -3.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.42 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.46 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.50 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.55 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.55 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.56 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 3.58 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.85 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.90 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.91 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 33.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 40.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 43.0°F | 50.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 30.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 36.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |