Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.29 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.44 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.54 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.91 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 1.93 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.97 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.02 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.05 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.09 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.19 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.21 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.23 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.24 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.27 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.29 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.29 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.29 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.31 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.37 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.39 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.45 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.45 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.47 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.49 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.51 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.55 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.56 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.64 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.64 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.75 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.76 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.76 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.81 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.85 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.87 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.90 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.97 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.00 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.05 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.15 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.23 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.39 | 3.14 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.55 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 3.63 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.69 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.75 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.80 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 4.30 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 4.33 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 5.56 | 3.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |