Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.37 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.47 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.64 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.66 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.78 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 1.80 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.84 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.87 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 1.89 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 1.97 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.10 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.14 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.14 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.26 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.26 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.27 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.32 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.32 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.35 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.39 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.44 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.45 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.47 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.51 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.54 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.57 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.58 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.59 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.61 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.62 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.64 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.68 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.82 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.82 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.87 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.90 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.94 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.94 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.08 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.13 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.29 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.42 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 3.45 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.48 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.59 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.83 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.98 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 4.18 | 3.52 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 4.20 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 5.02 | 4.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 39.0°F | 46.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 35.0°F | 37.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 36.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 37.0°F | 46.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 33.0°F | 41.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |