Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.47 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 1.65 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.71 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 1.73 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 1.86 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 1.92 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.96 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.01 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.08 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.09 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.11 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.11 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.13 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.16 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.21 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.26 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.29 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.33 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.37 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.38 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.39 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.42 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.46 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.47 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.52 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.52 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.53 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.56 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.66 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.80 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.87 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.89 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.90 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.97 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.02 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.07 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.08 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 3.12 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.12 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.12 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.18 | -2.82 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.28 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 3.29 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.29 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.48 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.59 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 3.69 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.89 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.91 | -3.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |