Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.43 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.74 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 1.86 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.90 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 1.92 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 1.95 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.97 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.05 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.05 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.07 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.18 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.19 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.21 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.26 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.29 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.34 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.34 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.37 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.37 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.45 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.47 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.47 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.48 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.52 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.58 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.58 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.58 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.59 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.62 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.68 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.69 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.71 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.74 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.76 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.84 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.84 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.86 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.91 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.92 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 3.01 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.05 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 3.07 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 3.09 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 3.18 | -2.99 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.20 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 3.35 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.37 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.54 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.74 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 4.08 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 20:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 21:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 MST | Denver CO | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 MST | Boise ID | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Topeka KS | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 43.0°F | 38.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Jackson MS | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 MST | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 43.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 21:00 PST | Carson City NV | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 32.0°F | 25.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 21:00 PST | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 EST | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |