Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence RI | 169 | 1.47 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.52 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 1.62 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 1.80 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.88 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.93 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.95 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 1.96 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.96 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.01 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.01 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.04 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.05 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.15 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.22 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.22 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.27 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.36 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.38 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.40 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.49 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.52 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.56 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.60 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.61 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.64 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.68 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.78 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.85 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.85 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.85 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.88 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.89 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.95 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 3.01 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 3.09 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 3.09 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 3.09 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 3.15 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.17 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.31 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 3.34 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 3.38 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.43 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.51 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.52 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.62 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.89 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 4.53 | 3.69 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 109.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 96.0°F | 91.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 79.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 87.0°F | 92.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 100.0°F | 98.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |