Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.34 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.46 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.66 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.67 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 1.69 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.73 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 1.75 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.83 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 1.93 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 1.94 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.05 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.07 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.17 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.19 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.19 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.24 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.33 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.34 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.35 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.37 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.38 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.41 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.46 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.48 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.52 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.55 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.57 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.57 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.58 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.59 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.68 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.69 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.77 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.78 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.78 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.79 | -2.47 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.85 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.98 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.11 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.17 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.18 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.37 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 3.46 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 3.47 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.51 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.75 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 4.01 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 4.14 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 4.24 | 3.81 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 5.13 | 4.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 39.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 53.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 50.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 56.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |