Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.36 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.44 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.78 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 1.84 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 1.85 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 1.89 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.90 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 1.94 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.98 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.13 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.17 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.17 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.25 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.34 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.34 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.34 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.36 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.36 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.36 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.38 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.41 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.44 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.45 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.47 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.51 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.51 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.55 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.56 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.62 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.66 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.67 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.72 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.76 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.77 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.78 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.79 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.81 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.85 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.90 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.96 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.96 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.10 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.11 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 3.18 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.23 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.45 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.67 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.70 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 4.39 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 4.46 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 59.0°F | 50.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 56.0°F | 49.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 65.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |