Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
28173
1352352 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.57°
9290 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-06 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 186 1.86 -0.35 48.0
Honolulu HI 186 1.88 -1.56 48.0
Lansing MI 186 1.88 -0.12 48.0
Richmond VA 185 1.88 -0.79 48.0
Austin TX 185 1.92 1.71 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 186 1.94 0.54 48.0
Nashville TN 185 1.99 0.38 48.0
Charleston WV 185 2.11 1.05 48.0
Juneau AK 186 2.15 0.54 48.0
Topeka KS 186 2.17 0.91 48.0
Trenton NJ 186 2.24 -0.77 48.0
Columbus OH 186 2.24 -0.92 48.0
Providence RI 186 2.24 -0.71 48.0
Augusta ME 186 2.25 -1.40 48.0
Annapolis MD 186 2.27 0.00 48.0
Raleigh NC 186 2.28 -1.58 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 2.29 1.05 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 186 2.32 1.70 48.0
Indianapolis IN 186 2.34 -1.05 48.0
Jefferson City MO 186 2.35 1.53 48.0
Tallahassee FL 186 2.41 -0.51 48.0
Frankfort KY 186 2.41 1.54 48.0
Saint Paul MN 186 2.41 -0.19 48.0
Albany NY 186 2.44 -1.18 48.0
Columbia SC 186 2.44 0.33 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 2.48 1.19 48.0
Madison WI 185 2.49 0.80 48.0
Dover DE 186 2.52 -1.45 48.0
Jackson MS 186 2.54 1.49 48.0
Springfield IL 186 2.56 1.66 48.0
Hartford CT 186 2.59 -1.46 48.0
Sacramento CA 186 2.62 2.13 48.0
Harrisburg PA 186 2.63 -0.65 48.0
Boston MA 186 2.67 -1.06 48.0
Atlanta GA 186 2.68 0.71 48.0
Boise ID 186 2.73 -0.88 48.0
Carson City NV 186 2.74 2.20 48.0
Phoenix AZ 186 2.75 -1.14 48.0
Salem OR 186 2.83 2.03 48.0
Helena MT 186 2.92 0.32 48.0
Montgomery AL 186 2.97 -1.38 48.0
Concord NH 186 3.15 -2.40 48.0
Des Moines IA 186 3.20 0.63 48.0
Pierre SD 185 3.28 1.63 48.0
Santa Fe NM 186 3.35 -2.06 48.0
Bismarck ND 186 3.39 0.35 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 3.41 0.46 48.0
Olympia WA 185 3.42 0.99 48.0
Lincoln NE 186 3.65 2.63 48.0
Denver CO 186 4.18 2.52 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Montgomery AL 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 09:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 10:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 94.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Little Rock AR 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 10:00 PDT Sacramento CA 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 11:00 MDT Denver CO 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Hartford CT 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Dover DE 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Atlanta GA 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 07:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 11:00 MDT Boise ID 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Springfield IL 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Des Moines IA 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Topeka KS 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Frankfort KY 88.0°F 83.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 84.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Augusta ME 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Annapolis MD 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Boston MA 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Lansing MI 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Jackson MS 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 81.0°F 68.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 11:00 MDT Helena MT 74.0°F 68.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Lincoln NE 74.0°F 69.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 10:00 PDT Carson City NV 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Concord NH 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Trenton NJ 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 11:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Albany NY 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Raleigh NC 86.0°F 89.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Bismarck ND 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Columbus OH 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 12:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 10:00 PDT Salem OR 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Providence RI 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 EDT Columbia SC 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0