Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lansing MI | 175 | 1.81 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.83 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.85 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.90 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 1.91 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.99 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.02 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.06 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.10 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.15 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.20 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.22 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.23 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.26 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.27 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.29 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.30 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.31 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.32 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.34 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.35 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.43 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.44 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.44 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.46 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.47 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.49 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.54 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.54 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.58 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.62 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.65 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.66 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.66 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.67 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.67 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.73 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.74 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.74 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.74 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.00 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 3.13 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.17 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.22 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.26 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 3.37 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.38 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.38 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.57 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 4.25 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-05 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-05 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 102.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-05 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-05 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-05 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 81.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-05 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |