Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.41 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.54 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.56 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.61 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.72 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.76 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.82 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.93 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 1.94 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 1.98 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.03 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.10 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.15 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.17 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.20 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.25 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.33 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.35 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.39 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.40 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.41 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.41 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.43 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.45 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.48 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.54 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.63 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.64 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.67 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.69 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.72 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.73 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.76 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.95 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.99 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.00 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 3.04 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 3.05 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 3.24 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 3.30 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.34 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 3.42 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.47 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.49 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.53 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.63 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 4.05 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 4.15 | 3.20 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 4.18 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 4.82 | 3.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 32.0°F | 24.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 38.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 30.0°F | 34.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 35.0°F | 46.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 32.0°F | 36.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 42.0°F | 48.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |