Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.12 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.44 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.52 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.90 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.01 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.02 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.03 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.08 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.17 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.17 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.19 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.22 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.22 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.31 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.33 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.36 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.37 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.38 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.40 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.42 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.42 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.43 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.44 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.45 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.46 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.51 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.55 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.57 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.58 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.74 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.78 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.80 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.90 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.93 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.97 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.98 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.04 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 3.11 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.12 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.13 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 3.16 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.27 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.35 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.37 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.42 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.53 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.73 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.92 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 4.24 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 4.45 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 44.0°F | 54.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 46.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 53.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 39.0°F | 47.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 49.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 44.0°F | 54.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |