Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.60 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.75 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.75 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 1.81 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.90 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 1.93 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 1.98 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 1.98 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.06 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.12 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.15 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.22 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.26 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.28 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.28 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.28 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.28 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.33 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.35 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.35 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.37 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.43 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.43 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.46 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.51 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.53 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.55 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.65 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.65 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.69 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.70 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.71 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.71 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.75 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.76 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.78 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.79 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.81 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.82 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.91 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.04 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 3.10 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 3.21 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.21 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.25 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.30 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 3.34 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.44 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.63 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 4.11 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 MST | Denver CO | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 MST | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 MST | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 31.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 PST | Carson City NV | 34.0°F | 36.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 36.0°F | 34.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 PST | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 EST | Columbia SC | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |