Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.44 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.61 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.78 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 1.80 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 1.87 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.89 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.93 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.07 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.09 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.13 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.17 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.22 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.23 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.23 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.24 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.29 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.32 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.39 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.42 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.44 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.47 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.51 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.58 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.60 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.62 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.62 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.63 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.69 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.72 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.76 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.79 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.86 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.86 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.93 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.97 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 3.02 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 3.07 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 3.12 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.12 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.14 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.14 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.21 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 3.34 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.38 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.44 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.73 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.80 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.96 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 4.01 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 4.57 | 3.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 97.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 101.0°F | 101.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 83.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 99.0°F | 95.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 93.0°F | 85.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 100.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |