Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
491
23616 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
1.89°
442 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-14 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Boston MA 9 0.56 0.11 5.0
Providence RI 8 0.63 0.13 4.5
Honolulu HI 9 0.67 0.22 5.0
Pierre SD 8 0.75 0.50 4.5
Richmond VA 8 0.75 0.00 4.5
Annapolis MD 9 0.78 -0.11 5.0
Jackson MS 9 0.78 0.33 5.0
Raleigh NC 9 0.78 -0.78 5.0
Columbus OH 8 0.88 -0.13 4.5
Nashville TN 8 0.88 -0.88 4.5
Salt Lake City UT 8 0.88 -0.63 4.5
Tallahassee FL 9 0.89 0.44 5.0
Topeka KS 9 0.89 0.67 5.0
Frankfort KY 9 0.89 0.00 5.0
Juneau AK 10 1.00 1.00 5.5
Des Moines IA 9 1.00 0.33 5.0
Baton Rouge LA 9 1.00 0.56 5.0
Saint Paul MN 9 1.00 0.78 5.0
Jefferson City MO 9 1.00 0.33 5.0
Helena MT 9 1.11 -0.89 5.0
Trenton NJ 9 1.11 -0.22 5.0
Salem OR 8 1.13 -0.63 4.5
Cheyenne WY 8 1.13 -0.63 4.5
Hartford CT 10 1.30 -0.50 5.5
Indianapolis IN 9 1.33 -0.67 5.0
Lansing MI 9 1.33 0.67 5.0
Harrisburg PA 8 1.38 -0.13 4.5
Madison WI 8 1.38 -1.13 4.5
Springfield IL 9 1.44 0.33 5.0
Montgomery AL 10 1.50 0.10 5.5
Charleston WV 8 1.50 1.50 4.5
Columbia SC 8 1.75 -1.75 4.5
Bismarck ND 9 1.89 1.89 5.0
Little Rock AR 10 2.00 -2.00 5.5
Boise ID 9 2.00 -0.89 5.0
Oklahoma City OK 8 2.00 -1.00 4.5
Austin TX 8 2.00 2.00 4.5
Augusta ME 9 2.33 2.11 5.0
Lincoln NE 9 2.56 2.56 5.0
Sacramento CA 10 2.60 -2.60 5.5
Dover DE 10 2.60 0.80 5.5
Concord NH 9 2.78 -0.56 5.0
Santa Fe NM 9 2.89 -2.89 5.0
Atlanta GA 9 3.11 -3.11 5.0
Albany NY 9 3.67 1.67 5.0
Carson City NV 9 4.00 4.00 5.0
Montpelier VT 8 4.38 3.13 4.5
Denver CO 10 4.40 4.40 5.5
Olympia WA 8 5.88 5.63 4.5
Phoenix AZ 10 8.70 8.70 5.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 97.0°F 89.0°F +8.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT Denver CO 81.0°F 69.0°F +12.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Dover DE 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 93.0°F 86.0°F +7.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 71.0°F 77.0°F -6.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT Denver CO 76.0°F 69.0°F +7.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Dover DE 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 83.0°F 74.0°F +9.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Boston MA 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT Helena MT 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Concord NH 87.0°F 80.0°F +7.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT Albany NY 88.0°F 79.0°F +9.0° 9.0