Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.12 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.49 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 1.64 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.70 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 1.73 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 1.88 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 1.89 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.96 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.03 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.09 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.09 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.10 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.10 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.15 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.18 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.20 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.25 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.30 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.35 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.38 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.39 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.41 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.41 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.45 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.49 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.52 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.53 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.55 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.57 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.66 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.80 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.88 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.90 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.92 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.93 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.02 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.09 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.09 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.12 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.13 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.14 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.18 | -2.82 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.27 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.29 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.30 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.49 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.61 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 3.71 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.93 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.93 | -3.32 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 63.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |