Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.33 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.51 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.53 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.57 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.63 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.80 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.83 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 1.97 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.97 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.00 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.06 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.09 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.11 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.12 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.23 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.26 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.26 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.33 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.34 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.37 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.41 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.42 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.45 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.45 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.48 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.56 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.67 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.70 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.71 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.72 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.74 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.76 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.80 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.94 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.98 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.99 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.03 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 3.14 | -2.63 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.30 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 3.32 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 3.39 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 3.44 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.44 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 3.45 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.48 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.53 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.90 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 4.11 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 4.29 | 3.32 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 4.60 | 3.57 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 33.0°F | 27.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 33.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 54.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 36.0°F | 39.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |