Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.30 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.34 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 1.57 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 1.63 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 1.66 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.75 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 1.75 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.77 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 1.85 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.98 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.03 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.08 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.27 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.27 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.28 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.31 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.37 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.47 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.47 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.48 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.49 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.58 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.61 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.61 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.61 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.63 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.72 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.74 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.76 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.80 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.82 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.82 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.91 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.91 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.96 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 2.96 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.99 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.03 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 3.06 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.10 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 3.10 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.14 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.26 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.29 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 3.43 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.46 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 3.71 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 3.75 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.88 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 4.32 | -3.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 46.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |