Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.28 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.33 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 1.86 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.05 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.05 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.07 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.07 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.08 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.12 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.12 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.15 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.16 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.27 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.30 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.33 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.36 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.38 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.40 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.45 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.46 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.51 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.53 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.56 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.57 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.59 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.63 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.66 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.67 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.72 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.73 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.73 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.82 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.83 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.86 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.88 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.89 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 3.04 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.08 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.09 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.11 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 3.11 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.13 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 3.13 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 3.20 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 3.22 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.22 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 3.29 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 3.31 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.50 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.84 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 19:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 20:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 21:00 MST | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 53.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Dover DE | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 21:00 MST | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Springfield IL | 46.0°F | 39.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Topeka KS | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Jackson MS | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 21:00 MST | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 49.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 20:00 PST | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 21:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Columbus OH | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 20:00 PST | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 EST | Columbia SC | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |