Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
4083
196032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.69°
4034 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-17 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Raleigh NC 81 1.19 -0.05 34.1
Baton Rouge LA 81 1.22 0.38 34.1
Jackson MS 81 1.26 -0.25 34.1
Columbus OH 80 1.34 0.86 33.9
Honolulu HI 81 1.46 0.27 34.1
Tallahassee FL 81 1.56 0.27 34.1
Cheyenne WY 80 1.61 0.24 33.9
Annapolis MD 81 1.65 0.44 34.1
Madison WI 80 1.71 0.94 33.9
Little Rock AR 81 1.84 -0.16 34.1
Frankfort KY 81 1.84 0.33 34.1
Des Moines IA 81 1.90 0.69 34.1
Juneau AK 81 1.91 1.10 34.1
Jefferson City MO 81 1.95 1.11 34.1
Indianapolis IN 81 1.98 0.52 34.1
Harrisburg PA 80 1.99 1.14 33.9
Sacramento CA 81 2.02 -0.22 34.1
Bismarck ND 81 2.06 1.64 34.1
Nashville TN 80 2.06 -0.19 33.9
Salt Lake City UT 80 2.26 -0.46 33.9
Montgomery AL 81 2.27 -0.99 34.1
Richmond VA 80 2.29 1.86 33.9
Atlanta GA 81 2.30 -1.51 34.1
Pierre SD 80 2.51 2.49 33.9
Springfield IL 81 2.60 2.26 34.1
Topeka KS 81 2.69 2.62 34.1
Saint Paul MN 81 2.75 2.48 34.1
Salem OR 80 2.88 2.30 33.9
Trenton NJ 81 2.91 2.57 34.1
Santa Fe NM 81 2.94 -1.43 34.1
Charleston WV 80 2.99 2.99 33.9
Dover DE 81 3.07 0.88 34.1
Helena MT 81 3.10 2.01 34.1
Denver CO 81 3.12 2.53 34.1
Boise ID 81 3.22 1.52 34.1
Lansing MI 81 3.26 2.89 34.1
Olympia WA 80 3.27 0.38 33.9
Carson City NV 81 3.28 2.35 34.1
Providence RI 80 3.46 3.34 33.9
Hartford CT 81 3.47 2.65 34.1
Columbia SC 80 3.48 -3.40 33.9
Austin TX 80 3.50 2.70 33.9
Oklahoma City OK 80 3.60 2.38 33.9
Augusta ME 81 3.81 1.59 34.1
Boston MA 81 3.85 3.28 34.1
Phoenix AZ 81 3.94 2.68 34.1
Lincoln NE 81 4.25 4.25 34.1
Concord NH 81 5.00 4.36 34.1
Montpelier VT 80 5.00 2.08 33.9
Albany NY 81 5.07 4.11 34.1

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 MDT Denver CO 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Dover DE 87.0°F 80.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 89.0°F 83.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Boston MA 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 MDT Helena MT 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Concord NH 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 84.0°F 77.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Providence RI 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0