Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.60 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.74 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.75 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 1.83 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 1.89 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.90 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 1.98 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.01 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.07 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.11 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.16 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.23 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.24 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.25 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.27 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.29 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.30 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.32 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.32 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.33 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.41 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.42 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.45 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.45 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.54 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.56 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.57 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.67 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.68 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.69 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.71 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.72 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.75 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.76 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.76 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.78 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.79 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.81 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.86 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.90 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.04 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 3.05 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.13 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 3.26 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.30 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 3.34 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.36 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.47 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.66 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 4.15 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 22:00 MST | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 22:00 MST | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Topeka KS | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 70.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 63.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 22:00 MST | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 35.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 PST | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 22:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 PST | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 EST | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |