Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.46 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.55 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.61 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 1.68 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.78 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.84 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.90 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.96 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.98 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.07 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.08 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.09 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.09 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.13 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.15 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.26 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.27 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.33 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.33 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.34 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.39 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.39 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.42 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.43 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.49 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.51 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.54 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.57 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.57 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.64 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.66 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.68 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.69 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.78 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.80 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.84 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.89 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.92 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.05 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 3.21 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.24 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 3.29 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.36 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 3.52 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.63 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.80 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.87 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 4.04 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 4.04 | -2.50 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 MST | Denver CO | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Hartford CT | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Dover DE | 44.0°F | 37.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 MST | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 51.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 MST | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 PST | Carson City NV | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 32.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 23:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 PST | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Providence RI | 42.0°F | 49.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 00:00 EST | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |