Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.31 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.43 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.53 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.92 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 1.96 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.99 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.00 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.07 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.07 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.19 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.23 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.26 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.26 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.27 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.29 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.31 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.31 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.35 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.40 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.41 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.42 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.42 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.47 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.48 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.51 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.55 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.58 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.61 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.62 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.71 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.73 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.76 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.79 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.86 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.87 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.94 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.96 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 3.01 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.05 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.16 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.24 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.32 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.49 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 3.58 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.68 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.74 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.84 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 4.31 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 4.35 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 5.58 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 66.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 67.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 67.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |