Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.36 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.46 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.65 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.66 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.76 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.78 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.79 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.85 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 1.91 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 1.97 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.07 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.14 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.16 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.19 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.25 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.29 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.30 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.35 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.36 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.36 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.41 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.41 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.49 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.52 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.55 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.55 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.56 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.57 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.57 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.58 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.63 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.69 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.80 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.81 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.85 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.85 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.86 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.97 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.07 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.14 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.30 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.32 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 3.46 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.49 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.58 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.77 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.96 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 4.14 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 4.19 | 3.69 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 5.10 | 4.22 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 34.0°F | 39.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 42.0°F | 50.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 58.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 41.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 51.0°F | 57.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 52.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 45.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |