Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.44 | -0.03 | 47.8 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.63 | 0.72 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.67 | -0.80 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.74 | -0.36 | 47.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.88 | -1.54 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 1.89 | 0.72 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.17 | 1.38 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.18 | 0.01 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.29 | 0.82 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.30 | 1.35 | 47.8 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.33 | 1.06 | 47.8 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.35 | 2.01 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.39 | 0.70 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.39 | 0.25 | 47.8 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.40 | 1.30 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.44 | 1.42 | 47.8 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.45 | 0.04 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.45 | 0.21 | 47.8 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.48 | 1.44 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.49 | 0.56 | 47.8 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.52 | 0.41 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.62 | 0.62 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.62 | 1.22 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.70 | 0.39 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.71 | 2.16 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.73 | 1.13 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.80 | 0.26 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.86 | 1.93 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.87 | -2.47 | 47.8 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.88 | 1.90 | 47.8 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.94 | 2.78 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.94 | 1.52 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.96 | 2.04 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.96 | 1.44 | 47.8 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.99 | -1.40 | 47.8 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 3.01 | 2.74 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.03 | 2.55 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 3.18 | 0.69 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.20 | 1.85 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 3.24 | 2.22 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 3.28 | 1.39 | 47.8 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.35 | 2.33 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.37 | 1.38 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.43 | -0.77 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.44 | 3.25 | 47.8 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.57 | 0.85 | 47.8 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.67 | -0.21 | 47.8 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.74 | 1.13 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 4.38 | 4.28 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 4.61 | 4.53 | 47.8 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 55.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |