Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
7833
376032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
7784 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-20 18:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 156 1.22 0.26 40.8
Baton Rouge LA 156 1.26 0.35 40.8
Little Rock AR 156 1.68 -0.73 40.8
Raleigh NC 156 1.69 0.07 40.8
Honolulu HI 156 1.74 -0.79 40.8
Indianapolis IN 156 1.82 -0.08 40.8
Sacramento CA 156 1.83 -0.36 40.8
Jefferson City MO 156 1.93 0.84 40.8
Columbus OH 155 2.00 1.46 40.7
Juneau AK 156 2.03 0.14 40.8
Des Moines IA 156 2.03 1.29 40.8
Frankfort KY 156 2.03 0.94 40.8
Madison WI 155 2.03 0.84 40.7
Tallahassee FL 156 2.10 0.53 40.8
Cheyenne WY 155 2.14 0.92 40.7
Montgomery AL 156 2.23 0.17 40.8
Atlanta GA 156 2.27 0.18 40.8
Annapolis MD 156 2.27 1.13 40.8
Saint Paul MN 156 2.28 2.01 40.8
Nashville TN 155 2.34 0.26 40.7
Austin TX 155 2.35 1.23 40.7
Salem OR 155 2.37 1.57 40.7
Richmond VA 155 2.43 1.64 40.7
Springfield IL 156 2.44 2.12 40.8
Salt Lake City UT 155 2.49 -0.75 40.7
Charleston WV 155 2.59 1.71 40.7
Topeka KS 156 2.62 2.46 40.8
Bismarck ND 156 2.65 2.16 40.8
Trenton NJ 156 2.71 2.34 40.8
Denver CO 156 2.76 1.97 40.8
Lansing MI 156 2.81 2.38 40.8
Carson City NV 156 2.85 0.47 40.8
Hartford CT 156 2.89 1.74 40.8
Boise ID 156 2.93 1.79 40.8
Harrisburg PA 155 2.99 2.47 40.7
Providence RI 155 3.03 2.25 40.7
Olympia WA 155 3.08 0.95 40.7
Columbia SC 155 3.12 -2.79 40.7
Dover DE 156 3.19 1.19 40.8
Santa Fe NM 156 3.31 -1.36 40.8
Augusta ME 156 3.32 1.56 40.8
Boston MA 156 3.38 2.08 40.8
Helena MT 156 3.46 2.81 40.8
Oklahoma City OK 155 3.57 2.92 40.7
Lincoln NE 156 3.61 3.56 40.8
Pierre SD 155 3.61 3.52 40.7
Albany NY 156 3.81 3.19 40.8
Phoenix AZ 156 3.90 1.25 40.8
Concord NH 156 3.96 3.01 40.8
Montpelier VT 155 4.27 1.82 40.7

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Montgomery AL 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 11:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Little Rock AR 96.0°F 97.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 11:00 PDT Sacramento CA 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 12:00 MDT Denver CO 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Hartford CT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 77.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 08:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 12:00 MDT Boise ID 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Springfield IL 89.0°F 85.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Des Moines IA 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Topeka KS 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Frankfort KY 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Augusta ME 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Annapolis MD 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Boston MA 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Lansing MI 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Jackson MS 97.0°F 93.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 92.0°F 92.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 12:00 MDT Helena MT 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Lincoln NE 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 11:00 PDT Carson City NV 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Concord NH 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Trenton NJ 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 12:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 81.0°F 86.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Albany NY 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Raleigh NC 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Bismarck ND 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Columbus OH 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 13:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 94.0°F 94.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 11:00 PDT Salem OR 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Providence RI 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 14:00 EDT Columbia SC 92.0°F 95.0°F -3.0° 48.0