Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 1.72 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.74 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 1.76 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.84 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.87 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 1.96 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 1.99 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 1.99 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.00 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.03 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.06 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.08 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.12 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.14 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.17 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.20 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.21 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.21 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.22 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.24 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.25 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.25 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.26 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 2.28 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.29 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.33 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.38 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.43 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.43 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.48 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.53 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.60 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.74 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.77 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.80 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.81 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.82 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.85 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.88 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.89 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.89 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.90 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 3.02 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.07 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.14 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.16 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.19 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.63 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 3.69 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 94.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 108.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 61.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 98.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |