Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.44 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.61 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.79 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 1.79 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 1.86 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.89 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.91 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.05 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.09 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.10 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.18 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.18 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.23 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.23 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.24 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.24 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.33 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.35 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.37 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.41 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.45 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.45 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.49 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.60 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.62 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.63 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.66 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.71 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.72 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.75 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.83 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.84 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.89 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.97 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.98 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 3.02 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.02 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 3.09 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 3.14 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.14 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.16 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.18 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 3.37 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.39 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.40 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.77 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.86 | 3.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 3.97 | 3.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 4.03 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 4.66 | 3.71 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 90.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 94.0°F | 88.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 79.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 85.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 83.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |