Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 167 | 1.28 | 0.21 | 41.2 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 167 | 1.40 | 0.54 | 41.2 |
| Little Rock AR | 167 | 1.68 | -0.80 | 41.2 |
| Honolulu HI | 167 | 1.77 | -0.80 | 41.2 |
| Sacramento CA | 167 | 1.80 | -0.41 | 41.2 |
| Indianapolis IN | 167 | 1.83 | 0.04 | 41.2 |
| Jefferson City MO | 167 | 1.87 | 0.80 | 41.2 |
| Raleigh NC | 167 | 1.89 | 0.38 | 41.2 |
| Columbus OH | 166 | 1.98 | 1.31 | 41.2 |
| Frankfort KY | 167 | 2.05 | 0.95 | 41.2 |
| Juneau AK | 167 | 2.08 | -0.06 | 41.2 |
| Madison WI | 166 | 2.09 | 0.97 | 41.2 |
| Cheyenne WY | 166 | 2.18 | 0.69 | 41.2 |
| Saint Paul MN | 167 | 2.19 | 1.87 | 41.2 |
| Tallahassee FL | 167 | 2.21 | 0.75 | 41.2 |
| Atlanta GA | 167 | 2.25 | 0.06 | 41.2 |
| Austin TX | 166 | 2.25 | 1.18 | 41.2 |
| Montgomery AL | 167 | 2.26 | -0.02 | 41.2 |
| Annapolis MD | 167 | 2.29 | 1.07 | 41.2 |
| Nashville TN | 166 | 2.30 | 0.19 | 41.2 |
| Des Moines IA | 167 | 2.32 | 1.57 | 41.2 |
| Richmond VA | 166 | 2.36 | 1.61 | 41.2 |
| Salem OR | 166 | 2.40 | 1.55 | 41.2 |
| Topeka KS | 167 | 2.49 | 2.29 | 41.2 |
| Charleston WV | 166 | 2.52 | 1.52 | 41.2 |
| Bismarck ND | 167 | 2.53 | 2.02 | 41.2 |
| Springfield IL | 167 | 2.61 | 2.31 | 41.2 |
| Trenton NJ | 167 | 2.62 | 2.18 | 41.2 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 166 | 2.63 | -1.00 | 41.2 |
| Denver CO | 167 | 2.72 | 1.71 | 41.2 |
| Lansing MI | 167 | 2.75 | 2.30 | 41.2 |
| Hartford CT | 167 | 2.78 | 1.62 | 41.2 |
| Carson City NV | 167 | 2.81 | 0.29 | 41.2 |
| Boise ID | 167 | 2.84 | 1.69 | 41.2 |
| Harrisburg PA | 166 | 2.89 | 2.28 | 41.2 |
| Dover DE | 167 | 3.02 | 1.11 | 41.2 |
| Olympia WA | 166 | 3.05 | 0.75 | 41.2 |
| Providence RI | 166 | 3.07 | 2.30 | 41.2 |
| Columbia SC | 166 | 3.17 | -2.86 | 41.2 |
| Augusta ME | 167 | 3.22 | 1.38 | 41.2 |
| Santa Fe NM | 167 | 3.34 | -1.37 | 41.2 |
| Boston MA | 167 | 3.39 | 2.17 | 41.2 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 166 | 3.45 | 2.85 | 41.2 |
| Lincoln NE | 167 | 3.49 | 3.38 | 41.2 |
| Pierre SD | 166 | 3.55 | 3.47 | 41.2 |
| Albany NY | 167 | 3.68 | 2.98 | 41.2 |
| Helena MT | 167 | 3.74 | 3.13 | 41.2 |
| Concord NH | 167 | 3.78 | 2.85 | 41.2 |
| Phoenix AZ | 167 | 3.99 | 1.14 | 41.2 |
| Montpelier VT | 166 | 4.17 | 1.69 | 41.2 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 83.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |