Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.37 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.50 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.55 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.71 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.81 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 1.96 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.02 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.04 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.07 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.14 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.17 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.19 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.21 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.29 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.32 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.32 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.32 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.33 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.35 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.35 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.41 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.43 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.43 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.44 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.47 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.59 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.60 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.72 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.72 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.72 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.75 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.81 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.89 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.98 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.98 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.99 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 3.04 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 3.06 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.19 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 3.19 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.22 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.31 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.44 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.50 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.52 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.54 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.87 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.95 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.96 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.98 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 37.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 63.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |