Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.22 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.60 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.69 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.73 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 1.78 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.81 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.91 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 1.95 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 1.95 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 1.96 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.07 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.10 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.20 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.21 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.24 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.26 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.27 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.28 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.29 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.29 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.32 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.39 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.40 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.48 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.50 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.51 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.53 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.53 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.56 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.57 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.59 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.61 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.65 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.67 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.73 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.77 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.91 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.91 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.99 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.06 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 3.11 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 3.16 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 3.19 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.19 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.53 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.56 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.74 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.78 | 3.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 3.90 | 3.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 4.07 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 102.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |