Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
16633
798432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.70°
8550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-28 02:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 171 1.47 -0.93 48.0
Providence RI 171 1.50 0.20 48.0
Hartford CT 171 1.74 0.33 48.0
Augusta ME 171 1.74 -0.44 48.0
Little Rock AR 171 1.87 -0.08 48.0
Tallahassee FL 171 1.89 -0.47 48.0
Trenton NJ 171 1.97 -0.06 48.0
Jackson MS 171 1.99 1.10 48.0
Austin TX 171 2.09 1.55 48.0
Atlanta GA 171 2.15 0.39 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 171 2.16 1.64 48.0
Concord NH 171 2.19 0.51 48.0
Albany NY 171 2.20 0.12 48.0
Harrisburg PA 171 2.23 -0.65 48.0
Boston MA 171 2.27 1.52 48.0
Charleston WV 171 2.33 -0.13 48.0
Helena MT 171 2.37 0.84 48.0
Jefferson City MO 171 2.40 0.50 48.0
Richmond VA 171 2.46 0.42 48.0
Annapolis MD 171 2.49 0.92 48.0
Lansing MI 171 2.50 0.96 48.0
Dover DE 171 2.51 0.49 48.0
Columbus OH 171 2.51 1.51 48.0
Raleigh NC 171 2.61 1.01 48.0
Juneau AK 171 2.65 0.55 48.0
Montgomery AL 171 2.67 1.09 48.0
Springfield IL 171 2.68 2.18 48.0
Carson City NV 171 2.68 1.51 48.0
Indianapolis IN 171 2.74 1.29 48.0
Nashville TN 171 2.74 0.54 48.0
Santa Fe NM 171 2.81 -0.65 48.0
Columbia SC 171 2.82 -1.18 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 171 2.95 -1.61 48.0
Sacramento CA 171 3.02 1.23 48.0
Saint Paul MN 171 3.04 1.75 48.0
Topeka KS 171 3.05 0.90 48.0
Madison WI 171 3.11 1.26 48.0
Des Moines IA 171 3.15 1.00 48.0
Salem OR 171 3.20 1.46 48.0
Olympia WA 171 3.25 -1.57 48.0
Montpelier VT 171 3.27 1.87 48.0
Cheyenne WY 171 3.27 -0.13 48.0
Phoenix AZ 171 3.28 -0.02 48.0
Lincoln NE 171 3.41 1.67 48.0
Boise ID 171 3.50 3.01 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 171 3.62 3.08 48.0
Frankfort KY 171 3.83 3.20 48.0
Denver CO 171 3.88 1.13 48.0
Bismarck ND 171 4.12 3.39 48.0
Pierre SD 171 4.63 3.60 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 18:00 AKDT Juneau AK 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 19:00 MST Phoenix AZ 105.0°F 110.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Little Rock AR 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 19:00 PDT Sacramento CA 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 20:00 MDT Denver CO 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Hartford CT 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 16:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 20:00 MDT Boise ID 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Springfield IL 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 84.0°F 72.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Des Moines IA 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Topeka KS 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Frankfort KY 84.0°F 72.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Augusta ME 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Lansing MI 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Jackson MS 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 20:00 MDT Helena MT 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Lincoln NE 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 19:00 PDT Carson City NV 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Concord NH 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 20:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 83.0°F 90.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Albany NY 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Bismarck ND 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 21:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 19:00 PDT Salem OR 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Providence RI 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 22:00 EDT Columbia SC 82.0°F 74.0°F +8.0° 48.0