Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
1883
90432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.55°
1834 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-15 19:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 37 0.89 0.62 19.0
Raleigh NC 37 1.00 -0.03 19.0
Juneau AK 37 1.11 0.62 19.0
Tallahassee FL 37 1.14 0.00 19.0
Richmond VA 36 1.14 0.53 18.5
Columbus OH 36 1.22 0.67 18.5
Annapolis MD 37 1.35 -0.38 19.0
Jefferson City MO 37 1.35 0.54 19.0
Jackson MS 37 1.54 -0.14 19.0
Nashville TN 36 1.58 -0.42 18.5
Cheyenne WY 36 1.58 0.19 18.5
Indianapolis IN 37 1.62 0.43 19.0
Honolulu HI 37 1.65 1.00 19.0
Harrisburg PA 36 1.83 0.67 18.5
Frankfort KY 37 1.84 0.59 19.0
Trenton NJ 37 1.89 1.24 19.0
Lansing MI 37 1.92 1.32 19.0
Salem OR 36 1.92 1.25 18.5
Des Moines IA 37 2.00 0.76 19.0
Salt Lake City UT 36 2.03 0.86 18.5
Madison WI 36 2.06 1.50 18.5
Montgomery AL 37 2.08 0.14 19.0
Little Rock AR 37 2.08 0.30 19.0
Bismarck ND 37 2.08 2.08 19.0
Topeka KS 37 2.11 2.05 19.0
Sacramento CA 37 2.16 -1.84 19.0
Springfield IL 37 2.16 1.62 19.0
Atlanta GA 37 2.27 -1.84 19.0
Oklahoma City OK 36 2.28 -0.39 18.5
Pierre SD 36 2.58 2.53 18.5
Dover DE 37 2.59 0.54 19.0
Saint Paul MN 37 2.59 2.32 19.0
Lincoln NE 37 2.92 2.92 19.0
Olympia WA 36 3.00 0.17 18.5
Santa Fe NM 37 3.11 -2.14 19.0
Columbia SC 36 3.14 -3.14 18.5
Hartford CT 37 3.16 1.81 19.0
Charleston WV 36 3.17 3.17 18.5
Helena MT 37 3.27 2.78 19.0
Boise ID 37 3.38 2.51 19.0
Denver CO 37 3.62 3.62 19.0
Austin TX 36 3.67 3.61 18.5
Providence RI 36 4.06 3.94 18.5
Boston MA 37 4.19 3.92 19.0
Augusta ME 37 4.27 2.49 19.0
Phoenix AZ 37 4.30 2.95 19.0
Concord NH 37 4.95 3.81 19.0
Carson City NV 37 5.19 4.65 19.0
Albany NY 37 5.24 3.19 19.0
Montpelier VT 36 5.33 3.00 18.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Montgomery AL 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 11:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 12:00 MST Phoenix AZ 103.0°F 101.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 12:00 PDT Sacramento CA 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 13:00 MDT Denver CO 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Hartford CT 94.0°F 84.0°F +10.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Dover DE 98.0°F 95.0°F +3.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Atlanta GA 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 09:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 13:00 MDT Boise ID 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Springfield IL 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Des Moines IA 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Topeka KS 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Frankfort KY 92.0°F 87.0°F +5.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Augusta ME 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Annapolis MD 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Boston MA 92.0°F 84.0°F +8.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Lansing MI 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Jackson MS 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 13:00 MDT Helena MT 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Lincoln NE 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 12:00 PDT Carson City NV 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Concord NH 89.0°F 82.0°F +7.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Trenton NJ 99.0°F 95.0°F +4.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 13:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 75.0°F 82.0°F -7.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Albany NY 92.0°F 80.0°F +12.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Raleigh NC 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Bismarck ND 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Columbus OH 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 87.0°F 69.0°F +18.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 12:00 PDT Salem OR 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Providence RI 93.0°F 84.0°F +9.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT Columbia SC 88.0°F 91.0°F -3.0° 36.0