Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.59 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.72 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.85 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.89 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 1.94 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 1.94 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 1.96 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.03 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.04 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.05 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.21 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.22 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.23 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.25 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.28 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.30 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.33 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.34 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.35 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.37 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.43 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.43 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.44 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.48 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.54 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.55 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.59 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.60 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.61 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.68 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.70 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.74 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.77 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.77 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.79 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.80 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.81 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.83 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.85 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.87 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.11 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.14 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.15 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 3.18 | -2.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.28 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 3.31 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.33 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.37 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.60 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 4.06 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 83.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 11:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 MST | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 MST | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 73.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 MST | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 46.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 11:00 PST | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 78.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 62.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 11:00 PST | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 14:00 EST | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |