Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
7233
347232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.65°
7184 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-20 06:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 144 1.20 0.16 40.2
Baton Rouge LA 144 1.31 0.38 40.2
Little Rock AR 144 1.67 -0.64 40.2
Raleigh NC 144 1.67 0.24 40.2
Honolulu HI 144 1.70 -0.69 40.2
Sacramento CA 144 1.75 -0.15 40.2
Indianapolis IN 144 1.85 -0.03 40.2
Juneau AK 144 1.88 -0.09 40.2
Madison WI 143 1.92 0.73 40.1
Jefferson City MO 144 1.95 0.77 40.2
Tallahassee FL 144 2.03 0.47 40.2
Frankfort KY 144 2.03 1.01 40.2
Des Moines IA 144 2.06 1.33 40.2
Columbus OH 143 2.07 1.52 40.1
Cheyenne WY 143 2.13 0.83 40.1
Montgomery AL 144 2.24 0.01 40.2
Annapolis MD 144 2.24 1.00 40.2
Saint Paul MN 144 2.28 2.00 40.2
Salem OR 143 2.36 1.82 40.1
Atlanta GA 144 2.37 0.12 40.2
Springfield IL 144 2.38 2.03 40.2
Nashville TN 143 2.42 0.17 40.1
Austin TX 143 2.43 1.26 40.1
Salt Lake City UT 143 2.49 -0.60 40.1
Richmond VA 143 2.52 1.79 40.1
Charleston WV 143 2.60 1.68 40.1
Trenton NJ 144 2.65 2.25 40.2
Bismarck ND 144 2.72 2.22 40.2
Carson City NV 144 2.75 0.85 40.2
Topeka KS 144 2.78 2.65 40.2
Denver CO 144 2.81 2.21 40.2
Lansing MI 144 2.86 2.40 40.2
Hartford CT 144 2.96 1.94 40.2
Olympia WA 143 2.99 1.09 40.1
Harrisburg PA 143 3.07 2.52 40.1
Boise ID 144 3.10 1.90 40.2
Columbia SC 143 3.12 -2.76 40.1
Providence RI 143 3.13 2.57 40.1
Santa Fe NM 144 3.19 -1.10 40.2
Dover DE 144 3.22 1.07 40.2
Boston MA 144 3.43 2.49 40.2
Augusta ME 144 3.47 1.70 40.2
Oklahoma City OK 143 3.60 2.90 40.1
Helena MT 144 3.62 2.92 40.2
Lincoln NE 144 3.64 3.58 40.2
Pierre SD 143 3.66 3.56 40.1
Phoenix AZ 144 3.83 1.76 40.2
Albany NY 144 3.97 3.33 40.2
Concord NH 144 4.12 3.16 40.2
Montpelier VT 143 4.41 1.99 40.1

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 22:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 96.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Little Rock AR 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 PDT Sacramento CA 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 MDT Denver CO 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Hartford CT 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Dover DE 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 20:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 MDT Boise ID 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Springfield IL 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Des Moines IA 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Frankfort KY 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Augusta ME 58.0°F 62.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Annapolis MD 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Lansing MI 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 MDT Helena MT 72.0°F 67.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Lincoln NE 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 PDT Carson City NV 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Concord NH 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Trenton NJ 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Albany NY 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Bismarck ND 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Columbus OH 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 01:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 76.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 PDT Salem OR 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Providence RI 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 02:00 EDT Columbia SC 76.0°F 82.0°F -6.0° 48.0