Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 180 | 1.34 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.48 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.48 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.53 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 1.57 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 1.59 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.78 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 1.83 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 1.87 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.01 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.05 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.08 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.10 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.19 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.32 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.33 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.39 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.46 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.47 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.48 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.50 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.53 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.53 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.56 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.58 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.63 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.63 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.73 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.76 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.83 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.83 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.83 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.84 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.98 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.99 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 2.99 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.00 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.04 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 3.06 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 3.07 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 3.07 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 3.11 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.25 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.29 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 3.31 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 3.46 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.64 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 3.71 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 3.74 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 4.41 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |