Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.19 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.50 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.54 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.84 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.96 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.05 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.09 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.19 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.21 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.23 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.23 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.25 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.29 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.30 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.30 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.32 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.34 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.37 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.42 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.48 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.48 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.48 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.49 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.51 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.52 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.54 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.57 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.66 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.69 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.74 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.79 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.87 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.88 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.90 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.90 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 3.02 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.07 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.11 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 3.15 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 3.20 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.21 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.27 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.30 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.37 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.43 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.50 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.76 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.99 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 4.10 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 4.26 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 32.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |