Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.41 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 1.47 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.88 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.88 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 1.96 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.00 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.04 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.09 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.09 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.10 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.13 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.17 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.22 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.23 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.25 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.26 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.28 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.36 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.42 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.42 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.45 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.47 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.49 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.49 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.50 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.54 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.56 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.59 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.63 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.66 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.68 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.69 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.71 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.73 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.74 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.84 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.87 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 2.91 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.92 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.02 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.15 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 3.28 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.30 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.47 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.73 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.82 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 4.02 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 4.27 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 4.32 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 4.35 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 50.0°F | 42.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 35.0°F | 37.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 38.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 36.0°F | 30.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |