Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.46 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.46 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.77 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.91 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 1.96 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.98 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 1.98 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.06 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.16 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.17 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.28 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.29 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.29 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.35 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.36 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.44 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.50 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.51 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.52 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.54 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.54 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.56 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.57 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.61 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.63 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.63 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.75 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.82 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.84 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.88 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.91 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.04 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.11 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.11 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.11 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 3.13 | -2.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 3.15 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.20 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 3.26 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 3.27 | -3.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.32 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.40 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.44 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.50 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.53 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 3.61 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 3.73 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.83 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.85 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.90 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 44.0°F | 35.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 53.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 34.0°F | 34.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 26.0°F | 31.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 50.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 38.0°F | 45.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 32.0°F | 27.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 35.0°F | 31.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 35.0°F | 35.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 37.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |