Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.34 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.52 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 1.58 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 1.75 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.77 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 1.86 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.91 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.11 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.13 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.18 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.18 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.18 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.20 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.23 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.23 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.24 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.25 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.28 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.29 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.30 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.36 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.40 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.42 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.45 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.46 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.53 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.58 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.61 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.68 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.72 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.72 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.82 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.83 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.84 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 2.85 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.86 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.90 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.92 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.01 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 3.02 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.02 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.05 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.06 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.18 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.21 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.26 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.32 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 3.35 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.50 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 3.53 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 83.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 108.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |