Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 59 | 0.90 | 0.36 | 28.9 |
| Columbus OH | 58 | 1.17 | 0.59 | 28.6 |
| Raleigh NC | 59 | 1.20 | -0.22 | 28.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 59 | 1.24 | -0.39 | 28.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 59 | 1.25 | 0.10 | 28.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 59 | 1.36 | 0.58 | 28.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 59 | 1.39 | 0.10 | 28.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 58 | 1.41 | 0.24 | 28.6 |
| Jackson MS | 59 | 1.44 | -0.36 | 28.9 |
| Juneau AK | 59 | 1.66 | 1.19 | 28.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 58 | 1.69 | 0.72 | 28.6 |
| Nashville TN | 58 | 1.69 | -0.17 | 28.6 |
| Little Rock AR | 59 | 1.76 | 0.47 | 28.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 59 | 1.78 | -0.02 | 28.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 59 | 1.78 | 0.97 | 28.9 |
| Topeka KS | 59 | 1.88 | 1.78 | 28.9 |
| Madison WI | 58 | 1.88 | 1.16 | 28.6 |
| Frankfort KY | 59 | 1.97 | 0.31 | 28.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 59 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 28.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 59 | 2.07 | -0.75 | 28.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 58 | 2.12 | -0.22 | 28.6 |
| Richmond VA | 58 | 2.12 | 1.74 | 28.6 |
| Salem OR | 58 | 2.14 | 1.62 | 28.6 |
| Bismarck ND | 59 | 2.17 | 2.17 | 28.9 |
| Springfield IL | 59 | 2.34 | 1.97 | 28.9 |
| Lansing MI | 59 | 2.34 | 1.83 | 28.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 59 | 2.36 | -2.08 | 28.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 59 | 2.66 | 2.19 | 28.9 |
| Helena MT | 59 | 2.71 | 1.32 | 28.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 58 | 2.71 | 1.02 | 28.6 |
| Pierre SD | 58 | 2.72 | 2.69 | 28.6 |
| Dover DE | 59 | 2.73 | 0.66 | 28.9 |
| Boise ID | 59 | 2.73 | 1.51 | 28.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 59 | 2.97 | -1.20 | 28.9 |
| Denver CO | 59 | 3.03 | 2.46 | 28.9 |
| Charleston WV | 58 | 3.14 | 3.14 | 28.6 |
| Olympia WA | 58 | 3.16 | -0.43 | 28.6 |
| Lincoln NE | 59 | 3.31 | 3.31 | 28.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 59 | 3.37 | 3.20 | 28.9 |
| Columbia SC | 58 | 3.48 | -3.48 | 28.6 |
| Hartford CT | 59 | 3.58 | 2.49 | 28.9 |
| Austin TX | 58 | 3.62 | 3.17 | 28.6 |
| Augusta ME | 59 | 3.68 | 1.81 | 28.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 59 | 3.69 | 2.54 | 28.9 |
| Providence RI | 58 | 4.00 | 3.93 | 28.6 |
| Carson City NV | 59 | 4.20 | 3.32 | 28.9 |
| Boston MA | 59 | 4.29 | 3.71 | 28.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 58 | 5.03 | 2.34 | 28.6 |
| Concord NH | 59 | 5.08 | 4.37 | 28.9 |
| Albany NY | 59 | 5.29 | 4.00 | 28.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 92.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 94.0°F | 89.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 89.0°F | 81.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 92.0°F | 86.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |