Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.39 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.51 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.76 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 1.84 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.85 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 1.96 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.01 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.12 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.18 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.22 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.28 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.35 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.42 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.43 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.46 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.48 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.50 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.51 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.52 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.55 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.57 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.59 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.63 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.66 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.69 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.73 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.77 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.88 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.88 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.94 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.99 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.00 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.14 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 3.21 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.23 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.27 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.32 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.33 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 3.34 | -3.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.35 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.38 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.39 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 3.42 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 3.42 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.55 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.69 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.75 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 3.91 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 4.11 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 4.35 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 49.0°F | 55.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 54.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 52.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 34.0°F | 33.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 59.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 62.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |