Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
71083
3412032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
9000 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-11 11:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 180 1.27 -0.09 48.0
Indianapolis IN 180 1.58 -0.39 48.0
Jefferson City MO 180 1.80 0.33 48.0
Honolulu HI 180 1.84 -1.11 48.0
Sacramento CA 180 1.87 -0.33 48.0
Austin TX 180 1.89 0.24 48.0
Albany NY 180 1.91 -0.77 48.0
Columbus OH 180 1.95 0.76 48.0
Lansing MI 180 2.09 1.22 48.0
Nashville TN 180 2.09 -0.03 48.0
Richmond VA 180 2.09 0.17 48.0
Annapolis MD 180 2.16 -0.57 48.0
Cheyenne WY 180 2.18 -0.34 48.0
Jackson MS 180 2.19 1.36 48.0
Saint Paul MN 180 2.25 0.58 48.0
Raleigh NC 180 2.27 -0.49 48.0
Columbia SC 180 2.27 0.13 48.0
Trenton NJ 180 2.28 -1.99 48.0
Salem OR 180 2.28 0.10 48.0
Augusta ME 180 2.29 -0.43 48.0
Charleston WV 180 2.29 1.67 48.0
Harrisburg PA 180 2.30 -1.22 48.0
Hartford CT 180 2.42 -1.54 48.0
Topeka KS 180 2.49 1.71 48.0
Providence RI 180 2.49 -2.29 48.0
Madison WI 180 2.50 1.13 48.0
Atlanta GA 180 2.63 1.17 48.0
Frankfort KY 180 2.64 0.97 48.0
Dover DE 180 2.67 -2.08 48.0
Lincoln NE 180 2.67 1.62 48.0
Tallahassee FL 180 2.82 -0.91 48.0
Boston MA 180 2.83 -0.36 48.0
Des Moines IA 180 2.87 1.58 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 180 2.88 1.62 48.0
Phoenix AZ 180 2.91 -2.43 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 180 2.92 1.42 48.0
Montpelier VT 180 2.99 0.77 48.0
Helena MT 180 3.01 -1.69 48.0
Concord NH 180 3.01 -0.54 48.0
Bismarck ND 180 3.05 1.23 48.0
Juneau AK 180 3.12 0.16 48.0
Montgomery AL 180 3.17 0.76 48.0
Carson City NV 180 3.18 -0.93 48.0
Olympia WA 180 3.29 0.18 48.0
Denver CO 180 3.39 0.80 48.0
Boise ID 180 3.43 1.02 48.0
Santa Fe NM 180 3.48 -2.54 48.0
Pierre SD 180 3.61 2.39 48.0
Springfield IL 180 3.67 3.29 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 180 3.69 -2.74 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 AKDT Juneau AK 48.0°F 41.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 MST Phoenix AZ 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 PDT Sacramento CA 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 MDT Denver CO 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Hartford CT 61.0°F 67.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Dover DE 68.0°F 75.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Atlanta GA 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 01:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 MDT Boise ID 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Springfield IL 62.0°F 66.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Des Moines IA 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Topeka KS 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Frankfort KY 66.0°F 72.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Augusta ME 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Boston MA 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Lansing MI 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Lincoln NE 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 PDT Carson City NV 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Concord NH 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Trenton NJ 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 60.0°F 55.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Albany NY 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Bismarck ND 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Columbus OH 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 PDT Salem OR 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 63.0°F 69.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Providence RI 59.0°F 68.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0