Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.23 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.54 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 1.58 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.67 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.69 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 1.84 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.89 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 1.89 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.89 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.04 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.06 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.10 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.15 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.16 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.22 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.22 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.27 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.29 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.30 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.33 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.35 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.35 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.35 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.35 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.40 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.45 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.46 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.60 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.61 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.63 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.63 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.68 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.71 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.71 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.73 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.74 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.78 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.85 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.87 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.00 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.06 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.06 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.19 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.27 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.37 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.47 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.49 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.50 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.66 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 3.92 | 3.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 111.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 90.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 91.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |