Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.58 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.74 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.76 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 1.81 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.88 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 1.93 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 1.96 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 1.97 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.06 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.09 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.16 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.21 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.26 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.26 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.27 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.27 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.29 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.32 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.34 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.35 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.36 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.41 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.42 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.49 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.50 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.53 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.53 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.64 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.65 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.68 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.69 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.69 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.70 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.74 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.77 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.78 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.80 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.82 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.83 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.90 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.04 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 3.11 | -2.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 3.19 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.23 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.25 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.27 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 3.34 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.40 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.65 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 4.10 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 02:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 MST | Denver CO | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Dover DE | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 MST | Boise ID | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Topeka KS | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Jackson MS | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 MST | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 29.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 PST | Carson City NV | 31.0°F | 32.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 35.0°F | 32.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 PST | Salem OR | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 EST | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |