Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.31 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.81 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 1.83 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 1.84 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.93 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.17 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.39 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.40 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.43 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.45 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.49 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.51 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.52 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.55 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.57 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.59 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.60 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.62 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.65 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.66 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.66 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.69 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.76 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.78 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.81 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.83 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.92 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.98 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.00 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 3.08 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 3.15 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.16 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.20 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 3.22 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.27 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.30 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 3.33 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.34 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.53 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.60 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.72 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 3.73 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 3.76 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 3.83 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.87 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 3.94 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.98 | 3.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 4.08 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 4.51 | 3.82 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 5.86 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 37.0°F | 40.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 23.0°F | 29.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 47.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 32.0°F | 30.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 48.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 51.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 34.0°F | 38.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 68.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |