Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 1.73 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.73 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 1.77 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.79 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.88 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.96 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.02 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.02 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.03 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.04 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.05 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.09 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.10 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.10 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.16 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.18 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.20 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.22 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.23 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.25 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.26 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 2.27 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.28 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.28 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.28 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.28 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.35 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.41 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.43 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.45 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.49 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.53 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.66 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.67 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.72 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.77 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.83 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.83 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.85 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.87 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.88 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.92 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.93 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.03 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 3.04 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.13 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.18 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.21 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 3.62 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 3.77 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 43.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |