Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 165 | 1.25 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 165 | 1.30 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 165 | 1.93 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 165 | 1.94 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 165 | 2.00 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 165 | 2.07 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 165 | 2.12 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 165 | 2.17 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 165 | 2.18 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 165 | 2.19 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 165 | 2.21 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 165 | 2.25 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 165 | 2.27 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 165 | 2.28 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 165 | 2.30 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 165 | 2.32 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 165 | 2.32 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 165 | 2.41 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 165 | 2.45 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 165 | 2.50 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 165 | 2.54 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 165 | 2.55 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 165 | 2.56 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 165 | 2.56 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 165 | 2.62 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 165 | 2.62 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 165 | 2.63 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 165 | 2.75 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 165 | 2.76 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 165 | 2.80 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 165 | 2.81 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 165 | 2.88 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 165 | 2.88 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 165 | 2.90 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 165 | 2.91 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 165 | 2.92 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 165 | 2.95 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 165 | 2.99 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 165 | 3.04 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 165 | 3.04 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 165 | 3.09 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 165 | 3.14 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 165 | 3.17 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 165 | 3.19 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 165 | 3.23 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 165 | 3.27 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 165 | 3.28 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 165 | 3.36 | -2.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 165 | 3.52 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 165 | 3.76 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 15:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 16:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 17:00 MST | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 62.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Dover DE | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 17:00 MST | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Springfield IL | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Topeka KS | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 42.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Jackson MS | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 17:00 MST | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 16:00 PST | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 17:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 16:00 PST | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 EST | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |