Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 163 | 1.23 | 0.29 | 41.1 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 163 | 1.36 | 0.49 | 41.1 |
| Little Rock AR | 163 | 1.66 | -0.75 | 41.1 |
| Honolulu HI | 163 | 1.73 | -0.74 | 41.1 |
| Sacramento CA | 163 | 1.82 | -0.40 | 41.1 |
| Indianapolis IN | 163 | 1.82 | 0.01 | 41.1 |
| Raleigh NC | 163 | 1.83 | 0.28 | 41.1 |
| Jefferson City MO | 163 | 1.89 | 0.83 | 41.1 |
| Columbus OH | 162 | 1.95 | 1.42 | 41.0 |
| Juneau AK | 163 | 2.03 | 0.04 | 41.1 |
| Frankfort KY | 163 | 2.06 | 1.02 | 41.1 |
| Des Moines IA | 163 | 2.10 | 1.33 | 41.1 |
| Madison WI | 162 | 2.10 | 0.97 | 41.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 162 | 2.20 | 0.74 | 41.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 163 | 2.21 | 1.93 | 41.1 |
| Tallahassee FL | 163 | 2.23 | 0.74 | 41.1 |
| Montgomery AL | 163 | 2.26 | 0.04 | 41.1 |
| Annapolis MD | 163 | 2.27 | 1.18 | 41.1 |
| Austin TX | 162 | 2.27 | 1.20 | 41.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 163 | 2.28 | 0.06 | 41.1 |
| Nashville TN | 162 | 2.29 | 0.27 | 41.0 |
| Richmond VA | 162 | 2.40 | 1.63 | 41.0 |
| Salem OR | 162 | 2.42 | 1.63 | 41.0 |
| Topeka KS | 163 | 2.52 | 2.34 | 41.1 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 162 | 2.53 | -0.86 | 41.0 |
| Charleston WV | 162 | 2.54 | 1.60 | 41.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 163 | 2.57 | 2.04 | 41.1 |
| Springfield IL | 163 | 2.60 | 2.29 | 41.1 |
| Trenton NJ | 163 | 2.67 | 2.25 | 41.1 |
| Denver CO | 163 | 2.71 | 1.83 | 41.1 |
| Lansing MI | 163 | 2.79 | 2.37 | 41.1 |
| Carson City NV | 163 | 2.82 | 0.36 | 41.1 |
| Hartford CT | 163 | 2.83 | 1.64 | 41.1 |
| Boise ID | 163 | 2.85 | 1.67 | 41.1 |
| Harrisburg PA | 162 | 2.91 | 2.39 | 41.0 |
| Providence RI | 162 | 3.06 | 2.27 | 41.0 |
| Olympia WA | 162 | 3.06 | 0.81 | 41.0 |
| Dover DE | 163 | 3.07 | 1.15 | 41.1 |
| Columbia SC | 162 | 3.17 | -2.85 | 41.0 |
| Augusta ME | 163 | 3.25 | 1.46 | 41.1 |
| Santa Fe NM | 163 | 3.33 | -1.36 | 41.1 |
| Boston MA | 163 | 3.39 | 2.14 | 41.1 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 162 | 3.44 | 2.82 | 41.0 |
| Pierre SD | 162 | 3.50 | 3.41 | 41.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 163 | 3.52 | 3.41 | 41.1 |
| Helena MT | 163 | 3.69 | 3.06 | 41.1 |
| Albany NY | 163 | 3.71 | 3.11 | 41.1 |
| Concord NH | 163 | 3.84 | 2.91 | 41.1 |
| Phoenix AZ | 163 | 3.88 | 1.06 | 41.1 |
| Montpelier VT | 162 | 4.17 | 1.83 | 41.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 104.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 101.0°F | 101.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 90.0°F | 74.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 76.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |