Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
8583
412032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
8534 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-21 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 171 1.30 0.15 41.4
Baton Rouge LA 171 1.37 0.54 41.4
Little Rock AR 171 1.68 -0.81 41.4
Honolulu HI 171 1.80 -0.85 41.4
Indianapolis IN 171 1.81 0.02 41.4
Sacramento CA 171 1.85 -0.50 41.4
Jefferson City MO 171 1.86 0.77 41.4
Raleigh NC 171 1.88 0.39 41.4
Columbus OH 170 2.02 1.19 41.4
Madison WI 170 2.06 0.92 41.4
Juneau AK 171 2.08 -0.02 41.4
Frankfort KY 171 2.09 0.85 41.4
Tallahassee FL 171 2.17 0.74 41.4
Saint Paul MN 171 2.17 1.80 41.4
Cheyenne WY 170 2.19 0.61 41.4
Austin TX 170 2.22 1.15 41.4
Montgomery AL 171 2.23 -0.04 41.4
Atlanta GA 171 2.23 0.09 41.4
Nashville TN 170 2.28 0.15 41.4
Richmond VA 170 2.32 1.55 41.4
Annapolis MD 171 2.35 0.94 41.4
Salem OR 170 2.36 1.51 41.4
Des Moines IA 171 2.39 1.65 41.4
Topeka KS 171 2.48 2.19 41.4
Bismarck ND 171 2.54 2.04 41.4
Charleston WV 170 2.54 1.40 41.4
Springfield IL 171 2.57 2.27 41.4
Trenton NJ 171 2.60 2.09 41.4
Salt Lake City UT 170 2.69 -1.11 41.4
Denver CO 171 2.73 1.61 41.4
Hartford CT 171 2.76 1.61 41.4
Lansing MI 171 2.80 2.14 41.4
Boise ID 171 2.82 1.70 41.4
Carson City NV 171 2.85 0.39 41.4
Harrisburg PA 170 2.94 2.11 41.4
Dover DE 171 2.97 1.06 41.4
Olympia WA 170 3.00 0.74 41.4
Providence RI 170 3.04 2.27 41.4
Columbia SC 170 3.12 -2.82 41.4
Augusta ME 171 3.19 1.30 41.4
Boston MA 171 3.39 2.19 41.4
Santa Fe NM 171 3.40 -1.48 41.4
Lincoln NE 171 3.47 3.37 41.4
Oklahoma City OK 170 3.50 2.91 41.4
Pierre SD 170 3.59 3.51 41.4
Helena MT 171 3.67 3.05 41.4
Albany NY 171 3.70 2.81 41.4
Concord NH 171 3.78 2.70 41.4
Phoenix AZ 171 4.09 1.30 41.4
Montpelier VT 170 4.22 1.50 41.4

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 83.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 03:00 MDT Denver CO 75.0°F 82.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 03:00 MDT Boise ID 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 73.0°F 78.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 62.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 03:00 MDT Helena MT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Concord NH 56.0°F 61.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 65.0°F 71.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Albany NY 62.0°F 67.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 75.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 02:00 PDT Salem OR 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Providence RI 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0