Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 79 | 1.19 | -0.08 | 33.7 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 79 | 1.22 | 0.41 | 33.7 |
| Jackson MS | 79 | 1.28 | -0.24 | 33.7 |
| Columbus OH | 78 | 1.31 | 0.82 | 33.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 79 | 1.44 | 0.23 | 33.7 |
| Tallahassee FL | 79 | 1.57 | 0.30 | 33.7 |
| Annapolis MD | 79 | 1.57 | 0.33 | 33.7 |
| Cheyenne WY | 78 | 1.63 | 0.24 | 33.5 |
| Madison WI | 78 | 1.74 | 0.97 | 33.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 79 | 1.87 | -0.18 | 33.7 |
| Frankfort KY | 79 | 1.87 | 0.33 | 33.7 |
| Juneau AK | 79 | 1.89 | 1.05 | 33.7 |
| Des Moines IA | 79 | 1.89 | 0.65 | 33.7 |
| Harrisburg PA | 78 | 1.90 | 1.03 | 33.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 79 | 1.97 | 0.58 | 33.7 |
| Jefferson City MO | 79 | 2.00 | 1.14 | 33.7 |
| Nashville TN | 78 | 2.00 | -0.08 | 33.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 79 | 2.01 | 1.58 | 33.7 |
| Sacramento CA | 79 | 2.04 | -0.27 | 33.7 |
| Richmond VA | 78 | 2.24 | 1.81 | 33.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 78 | 2.28 | -0.44 | 33.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 79 | 2.30 | -0.99 | 33.7 |
| Atlanta GA | 79 | 2.32 | -1.51 | 33.7 |
| Pierre SD | 78 | 2.58 | 2.55 | 33.5 |
| Springfield IL | 79 | 2.66 | 2.30 | 33.7 |
| Topeka KS | 79 | 2.67 | 2.59 | 33.7 |
| Saint Paul MN | 79 | 2.81 | 2.56 | 33.7 |
| Trenton NJ | 79 | 2.87 | 2.52 | 33.7 |
| Salem OR | 78 | 2.94 | 2.35 | 33.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 79 | 2.95 | -1.41 | 33.7 |
| Dover DE | 79 | 2.99 | 0.73 | 33.7 |
| Charleston WV | 78 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 33.5 |
| Helena MT | 79 | 3.08 | 1.96 | 33.7 |
| Denver CO | 79 | 3.11 | 2.51 | 33.7 |
| Boise ID | 79 | 3.19 | 1.67 | 33.7 |
| Lansing MI | 79 | 3.27 | 2.89 | 33.7 |
| Carson City NV | 79 | 3.32 | 2.43 | 33.7 |
| Olympia WA | 78 | 3.33 | 0.41 | 33.5 |
| Hartford CT | 79 | 3.46 | 2.62 | 33.7 |
| Providence RI | 78 | 3.49 | 3.36 | 33.5 |
| Columbia SC | 78 | 3.53 | -3.53 | 33.5 |
| Austin TX | 78 | 3.55 | 2.81 | 33.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 78 | 3.60 | 2.35 | 33.5 |
| Boston MA | 79 | 3.87 | 3.29 | 33.7 |
| Augusta ME | 79 | 3.90 | 1.62 | 33.7 |
| Phoenix AZ | 79 | 3.94 | 2.65 | 33.7 |
| Lincoln NE | 79 | 4.29 | 4.29 | 33.7 |
| Montpelier VT | 78 | 5.08 | 2.08 | 33.5 |
| Concord NH | 79 | 5.10 | 4.47 | 33.7 |
| Albany NY | 79 | 5.14 | 4.15 | 33.7 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |