Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
3983
191232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.71°
3934 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-17 13:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Raleigh NC 79 1.19 -0.08 33.7
Baton Rouge LA 79 1.22 0.41 33.7
Jackson MS 79 1.28 -0.24 33.7
Columbus OH 78 1.31 0.82 33.5
Honolulu HI 79 1.44 0.23 33.7
Tallahassee FL 79 1.57 0.30 33.7
Annapolis MD 79 1.57 0.33 33.7
Cheyenne WY 78 1.63 0.24 33.5
Madison WI 78 1.74 0.97 33.5
Little Rock AR 79 1.87 -0.18 33.7
Frankfort KY 79 1.87 0.33 33.7
Juneau AK 79 1.89 1.05 33.7
Des Moines IA 79 1.89 0.65 33.7
Harrisburg PA 78 1.90 1.03 33.5
Indianapolis IN 79 1.97 0.58 33.7
Jefferson City MO 79 2.00 1.14 33.7
Nashville TN 78 2.00 -0.08 33.5
Bismarck ND 79 2.01 1.58 33.7
Sacramento CA 79 2.04 -0.27 33.7
Richmond VA 78 2.24 1.81 33.5
Salt Lake City UT 78 2.28 -0.44 33.5
Montgomery AL 79 2.30 -0.99 33.7
Atlanta GA 79 2.32 -1.51 33.7
Pierre SD 78 2.58 2.55 33.5
Springfield IL 79 2.66 2.30 33.7
Topeka KS 79 2.67 2.59 33.7
Saint Paul MN 79 2.81 2.56 33.7
Trenton NJ 79 2.87 2.52 33.7
Salem OR 78 2.94 2.35 33.5
Santa Fe NM 79 2.95 -1.41 33.7
Dover DE 79 2.99 0.73 33.7
Charleston WV 78 3.03 3.03 33.5
Helena MT 79 3.08 1.96 33.7
Denver CO 79 3.11 2.51 33.7
Boise ID 79 3.19 1.67 33.7
Lansing MI 79 3.27 2.89 33.7
Carson City NV 79 3.32 2.43 33.7
Olympia WA 78 3.33 0.41 33.5
Hartford CT 79 3.46 2.62 33.7
Providence RI 78 3.49 3.36 33.5
Columbia SC 78 3.53 -3.53 33.5
Austin TX 78 3.55 2.81 33.5
Oklahoma City OK 78 3.60 2.35 33.5
Boston MA 79 3.87 3.29 33.7
Augusta ME 79 3.90 1.62 33.7
Phoenix AZ 79 3.94 2.65 33.7
Lincoln NE 79 4.29 4.29 33.7
Montpelier VT 78 5.08 2.08 33.5
Concord NH 79 5.10 4.47 33.7
Albany NY 79 5.14 4.15 33.7

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 05:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 45.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 06:00 MST Phoenix AZ 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Little Rock AR 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 06:00 PDT Sacramento CA 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 07:00 MDT Denver CO 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Dover DE 82.0°F 75.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 03:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 07:00 MDT Boise ID 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Springfield IL 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Des Moines IA 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Topeka KS 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Frankfort KY 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Boston MA 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Lansing MI 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Jackson MS 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 07:00 MDT Helena MT 66.0°F 62.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Lincoln NE 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 06:00 PDT Carson City NV 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Concord NH 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Trenton NJ 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 07:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Albany NY 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Raleigh NC 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Bismarck ND 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Columbus OH 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 08:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 06:00 PDT Salem OR 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Providence RI 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 09:00 EDT Columbia SC 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0