Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 130 | 1.15 | -0.01 | 39.3 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 130 | 1.30 | 0.27 | 39.3 |
| Raleigh NC | 130 | 1.53 | 0.22 | 39.3 |
| Honolulu HI | 130 | 1.63 | -0.51 | 39.3 |
| Little Rock AR | 131 | 1.66 | -0.60 | 39.4 |
| Jefferson City MO | 130 | 1.67 | 0.39 | 39.3 |
| Cheyenne WY | 129 | 1.70 | 0.41 | 39.3 |
| Sacramento CA | 131 | 1.72 | 0.01 | 39.4 |
| Madison WI | 129 | 1.85 | 0.61 | 39.3 |
| Des Moines IA | 130 | 1.88 | 1.08 | 39.3 |
| Indianapolis IN | 130 | 1.93 | 0.04 | 39.3 |
| Frankfort KY | 130 | 1.95 | 1.02 | 39.3 |
| Juneau AK | 131 | 1.98 | -0.04 | 39.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 131 | 2.02 | -0.44 | 39.4 |
| Tallahassee FL | 130 | 2.03 | 0.40 | 39.3 |
| Columbus OH | 129 | 2.05 | 1.45 | 39.3 |
| Annapolis MD | 130 | 2.21 | 0.90 | 39.3 |
| Saint Paul MN | 130 | 2.22 | 1.91 | 39.3 |
| Nashville TN | 129 | 2.26 | -0.01 | 39.3 |
| Springfield IL | 130 | 2.35 | 1.96 | 39.3 |
| Atlanta GA | 130 | 2.38 | -0.12 | 39.3 |
| Salem OR | 129 | 2.43 | 1.91 | 39.3 |
| Richmond VA | 129 | 2.47 | 1.77 | 39.3 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 129 | 2.48 | -0.39 | 39.3 |
| Austin TX | 129 | 2.57 | 1.36 | 39.3 |
| Bismarck ND | 130 | 2.72 | 2.22 | 39.3 |
| Trenton NJ | 130 | 2.76 | 2.32 | 39.3 |
| Lansing MI | 130 | 2.78 | 2.28 | 39.3 |
| Charleston WV | 129 | 2.80 | 1.84 | 39.3 |
| Boise ID | 130 | 2.82 | 1.49 | 39.3 |
| Carson City NV | 130 | 2.82 | 0.98 | 39.3 |
| Topeka KS | 130 | 2.88 | 2.79 | 39.3 |
| Denver CO | 131 | 2.96 | 2.38 | 39.4 |
| Santa Fe NM | 130 | 2.98 | -0.65 | 39.3 |
| Columbia SC | 129 | 3.04 | -2.64 | 39.3 |
| Hartford CT | 130 | 3.09 | 2.26 | 39.3 |
| Harrisburg PA | 129 | 3.17 | 2.57 | 39.3 |
| Olympia WA | 129 | 3.18 | 1.33 | 39.3 |
| Providence RI | 129 | 3.35 | 2.90 | 39.3 |
| Pierre SD | 129 | 3.38 | 3.35 | 39.3 |
| Dover DE | 130 | 3.42 | 1.11 | 39.3 |
| Boston MA | 130 | 3.62 | 2.92 | 39.3 |
| Augusta ME | 130 | 3.64 | 1.82 | 39.3 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 129 | 3.64 | 2.87 | 39.3 |
| Lincoln NE | 130 | 3.75 | 3.68 | 39.3 |
| Helena MT | 130 | 3.78 | 3.03 | 39.3 |
| Phoenix AZ | 131 | 3.85 | 2.27 | 39.4 |
| Albany NY | 130 | 4.32 | 3.65 | 39.3 |
| Concord NH | 130 | 4.34 | 3.45 | 39.3 |
| Montpelier VT | 129 | 4.50 | 2.41 | 39.3 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 81.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |