Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
14783
709632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
9100 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-26 13:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 182 1.68 -1.18 48.0
Providence RI 182 1.68 0.21 48.0
Augusta ME 182 1.69 -0.24 48.0
Austin TX 182 1.77 1.05 48.0
Little Rock AR 182 1.81 -0.29 48.0
Hartford CT 182 1.81 0.12 48.0
Jackson MS 182 1.84 1.11 48.0
Albany NY 182 1.89 0.51 48.0
Trenton NJ 182 1.91 0.31 48.0
Columbus OH 182 1.91 0.94 48.0
Charleston WV 182 1.91 -0.79 48.0
Tallahassee FL 182 1.98 0.20 48.0
Atlanta GA 182 1.99 0.68 48.0
Indianapolis IN 182 2.01 0.29 48.0
Concord NH 182 2.12 0.47 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 182 2.15 1.62 48.0
Dover DE 182 2.24 0.58 48.0
Harrisburg PA 182 2.29 -0.07 48.0
Boston MA 182 2.32 1.01 48.0
Lansing MI 182 2.36 1.16 48.0
Annapolis MD 182 2.43 1.04 48.0
Richmond VA 182 2.48 0.47 48.0
Jefferson City MO 182 2.49 1.02 48.0
Helena MT 182 2.51 1.49 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 182 2.51 -1.62 48.0
Montgomery AL 182 2.54 1.09 48.0
Raleigh NC 182 2.59 0.79 48.0
Nashville TN 182 2.60 0.26 48.0
Juneau AK 182 2.73 0.33 48.0
Frankfort KY 182 2.81 1.96 48.0
Saint Paul MN 182 2.81 2.41 48.0
Montpelier VT 182 2.84 0.84 48.0
Topeka KS 182 2.88 1.21 48.0
Santa Fe NM 182 2.88 -0.77 48.0
Springfield IL 182 2.90 2.69 48.0
Carson City NV 182 2.95 0.59 48.0
Columbia SC 182 2.95 -2.23 48.0
Sacramento CA 182 2.98 0.46 48.0
Salem OR 182 3.02 1.08 48.0
Madison WI 182 3.03 2.01 48.0
Cheyenne WY 182 3.03 -0.03 48.0
Des Moines IA 182 3.08 1.58 48.0
Olympia WA 182 3.15 -1.20 48.0
Boise ID 182 3.22 2.65 48.0
Denver CO 182 3.42 0.98 48.0
Phoenix AZ 182 3.43 -0.45 48.0
Lincoln NE 182 3.47 2.07 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 182 3.48 3.07 48.0
Bismarck ND 182 3.59 3.02 48.0
Pierre SD 182 4.96 4.18 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 05:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 55.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 MDT Denver CO 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Hartford CT 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 03:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 MDT Boise ID 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Springfield IL 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Topeka KS 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 69.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Jackson MS 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 MDT Helena MT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Lincoln NE 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 PDT Carson City NV 63.0°F 54.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Concord NH 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Trenton NJ 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 07:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Raleigh NC 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Bismarck ND 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Columbus OH 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 08:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 06:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Providence RI 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 09:00 EDT Columbia SC 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0