Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.43 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.55 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.63 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 1.66 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.79 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 1.85 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.87 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 1.94 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.97 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.08 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.09 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.09 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.10 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.13 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.16 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.24 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.29 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.34 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.35 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.36 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.38 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.39 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.41 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.43 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.48 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.51 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.55 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.59 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.60 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.63 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.65 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.68 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.70 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.76 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.79 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.84 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.89 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.06 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 3.24 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 3.24 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.27 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.35 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 3.55 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.62 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.84 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.86 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 4.04 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 4.08 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 MST | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Hartford CT | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 38.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 MST | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 47.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 52.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 MST | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 PST | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Concord NH | 39.0°F | 36.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 20:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 PST | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Providence RI | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 22:00 EST | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |