Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.44 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.53 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 1.79 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 1.80 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.86 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.94 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.95 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 1.98 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.11 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.11 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.14 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.20 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.22 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.26 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.30 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.30 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.35 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.41 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.41 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.45 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.51 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.51 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.52 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.55 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.63 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.63 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.65 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.67 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.69 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.80 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.82 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.83 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.94 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.00 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 3.01 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 3.05 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 3.08 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 3.14 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 3.14 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.20 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.20 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.23 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.32 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.36 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 3.47 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.69 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.86 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 4.01 | 3.40 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 4.09 | 3.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 4.63 | 3.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 103.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |