Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.62 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.72 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.75 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.78 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.86 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.02 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.07 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.09 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.11 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.12 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.19 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.20 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.23 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.28 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.31 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.37 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.38 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.39 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.39 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.41 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.44 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.55 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.59 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.61 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.62 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.65 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.66 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.67 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.69 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.74 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.74 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.78 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.80 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.84 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.97 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 3.00 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.02 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 3.03 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 3.08 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.09 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.29 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.35 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.38 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.39 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 3.46 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.47 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.53 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.71 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.92 | 3.47 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 4.81 | 4.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 112.0°F | 111.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 94.0°F | 84.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 102.0°F | 96.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 96.0°F | 92.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 80.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 97.0°F | 103.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 86.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |