Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
18483
887232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.60°
9200 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-29 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 184 1.35 -0.83 48.0
Providence RI 184 1.56 -0.57 48.0
Boston MA 184 1.84 1.01 48.0
Jackson MS 184 1.86 1.26 48.0
Little Rock AR 184 1.89 0.07 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 184 1.89 1.46 48.0
Trenton NJ 184 1.90 0.13 48.0
Augusta ME 184 1.96 -1.07 48.0
Richmond VA 184 2.01 0.10 48.0
Hartford CT 184 2.12 -0.59 48.0
Atlanta GA 184 2.15 0.46 48.0
Charleston WV 184 2.15 0.26 48.0
Harrisburg PA 184 2.16 -0.17 48.0
Helena MT 184 2.18 0.55 48.0
Albany NY 184 2.22 0.17 48.0
Tallahassee FL 184 2.25 0.03 48.0
Concord NH 184 2.26 0.09 48.0
Austin TX 184 2.26 1.88 48.0
Lansing MI 184 2.33 1.43 48.0
Carson City NV 184 2.35 1.08 48.0
Columbus OH 184 2.35 1.89 48.0
Annapolis MD 184 2.40 1.01 48.0
Jefferson City MO 184 2.46 0.51 48.0
Dover DE 184 2.52 0.41 48.0
Montgomery AL 184 2.54 1.00 48.0
Juneau AK 184 2.55 0.70 48.0
Raleigh NC 184 2.55 1.09 48.0
Sacramento CA 184 2.65 2.05 48.0
Des Moines IA 184 2.66 -0.08 48.0
Nashville TN 184 2.66 0.46 48.0
Springfield IL 184 2.68 2.22 48.0
Indianapolis IN 184 2.69 1.63 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 184 2.71 -0.78 48.0
Santa Fe NM 184 2.90 -0.14 48.0
Saint Paul MN 184 2.91 1.79 48.0
Columbia SC 184 2.92 -0.99 48.0
Montpelier VT 184 2.98 1.60 48.0
Phoenix AZ 184 2.99 -0.44 48.0
Salem OR 184 3.03 1.60 48.0
Topeka KS 184 3.13 1.00 48.0
Madison WI 184 3.14 1.41 48.0
Lincoln NE 184 3.15 0.84 48.0
Olympia WA 184 3.18 -1.35 48.0
Cheyenne WY 184 3.18 0.28 48.0
Boise ID 184 3.23 2.61 48.0
Denver CO 184 3.59 1.52 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 184 3.73 3.33 48.0
Frankfort KY 184 3.78 3.40 48.0
Bismarck ND 184 4.02 3.30 48.0
Pierre SD 184 4.16 3.02 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 84.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 55.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 MDT Denver CO 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 MDT Boise ID 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 MDT Helena MT 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Concord NH 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Albany NY 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 08:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Providence RI 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0