Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.43 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.52 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.79 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.93 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.95 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.98 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.01 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.03 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.13 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.14 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.24 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.32 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.38 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.42 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.43 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.47 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.48 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.50 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.51 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.51 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.53 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.56 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.57 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.58 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.59 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.70 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.71 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.75 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.81 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.86 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.96 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.99 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.06 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.08 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 3.09 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 3.20 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 3.21 | -3.00 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.22 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 3.23 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.29 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.34 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.36 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.39 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.48 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.53 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.53 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.70 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 3.71 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.94 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 4.31 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 51.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 51.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 37.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |