Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.14 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.19 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 1.52 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 1.53 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.77 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 1.84 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 1.87 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.89 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.96 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.06 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.09 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.14 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.18 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.20 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.24 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.30 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.34 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.40 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.47 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.47 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.49 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.54 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.65 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.66 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.66 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.67 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.68 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.68 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.70 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.70 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.73 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.73 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.74 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 2.79 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.81 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.81 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.91 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.02 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.04 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.06 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.08 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.09 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.09 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.12 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.26 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 3.28 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.49 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 3.63 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 4.10 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 4.15 | -3.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 107.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 90.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 84.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 101.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |