Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.59 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.62 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.69 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 1.71 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 1.83 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.96 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.97 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 1.98 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.00 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.06 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.06 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.15 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.17 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.21 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.22 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.30 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.30 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.30 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.31 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.35 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.36 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.37 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.38 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.38 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.46 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.48 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.51 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.53 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.57 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.64 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.69 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.71 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.75 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.76 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.85 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.85 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.85 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.87 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.87 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.88 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 2.94 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.01 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.08 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.59 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.69 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.70 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.77 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.77 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 3.79 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 4.89 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 38.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |