Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.20 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.50 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.55 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.84 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.97 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.06 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.10 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.19 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.22 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.23 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.24 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.27 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.28 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.30 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.32 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.33 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.34 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.37 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.45 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.49 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.49 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.51 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.51 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.52 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.53 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.55 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.59 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.69 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.70 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.74 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.77 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.88 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.88 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.90 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.90 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 3.04 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.10 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.11 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 3.14 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.18 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 3.19 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.27 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.29 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.30 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.46 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.52 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.75 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.96 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 4.06 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 4.28 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 40.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 65.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |