Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
13233
635232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.64°
8750 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-25 06:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 175 1.54 0.56 48.0
Indianapolis IN 175 1.66 -0.61 48.0
Jackson MS 175 1.78 1.08 48.0
Little Rock AR 175 1.81 -0.36 48.0
Honolulu HI 175 1.85 -1.43 48.0
Hartford CT 175 1.92 -0.02 48.0
Atlanta GA 175 1.99 0.62 48.0
Providence RI 175 1.99 0.36 48.0
Trenton NJ 175 2.02 0.29 48.0
Charleston WV 175 2.06 -0.50 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 175 2.15 1.44 48.0
Albany NY 175 2.22 1.07 48.0
Augusta ME 175 2.24 0.27 48.0
Nashville TN 175 2.25 0.02 48.0
Columbus OH 175 2.26 1.30 48.0
Lansing MI 175 2.27 1.23 48.0
Tallahassee FL 175 2.30 0.54 48.0
Juneau AK 175 2.33 0.16 48.0
Frankfort KY 175 2.38 1.65 48.0
Jefferson City MO 175 2.38 1.33 48.0
Raleigh NC 175 2.38 0.25 48.0
Saint Paul MN 175 2.44 2.15 48.0
Concord NH 175 2.53 0.87 48.0
Annapolis MD 175 2.57 0.92 48.0
Boston MA 175 2.57 1.09 48.0
Dover DE 175 2.60 0.31 48.0
Montgomery AL 175 2.62 1.13 48.0
Richmond VA 175 2.62 0.77 48.0
Topeka KS 175 2.71 2.37 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 175 2.73 -1.47 48.0
Harrisburg PA 175 2.78 1.07 48.0
Madison WI 175 2.82 1.90 48.0
Springfield IL 175 2.83 2.67 48.0
Des Moines IA 175 2.86 2.19 48.0
Columbia SC 175 2.88 -2.11 48.0
Carson City NV 175 2.89 0.33 48.0
Cheyenne WY 175 2.89 0.42 48.0
Salem OR 175 3.01 1.07 48.0
Sacramento CA 175 3.04 0.50 48.0
Montpelier VT 175 3.14 1.08 48.0
Boise ID 175 3.18 2.82 48.0
Helena MT 175 3.19 2.34 48.0
Santa Fe NM 175 3.19 -0.45 48.0
Phoenix AZ 175 3.35 -0.58 48.0
Olympia WA 175 3.46 -0.43 48.0
Denver CO 175 3.52 1.44 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 175 3.54 3.33 48.0
Bismarck ND 175 3.60 2.91 48.0
Lincoln NE 175 3.66 3.14 48.0
Pierre SD 175 5.15 4.58 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 22:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 23:00 MST Phoenix AZ 102.0°F 107.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Little Rock AR 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 23:00 PDT Sacramento CA 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 00:00 MDT Denver CO 79.0°F 73.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Hartford CT 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Dover DE 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 20:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 00:00 MDT Boise ID 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Springfield IL 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Des Moines IA 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Topeka KS 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Frankfort KY 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Augusta ME 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Annapolis MD 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Boston MA 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 00:00 MDT Helena MT 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Lincoln NE 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 23:00 PDT Carson City NV 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Trenton NJ 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 00:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Albany NY 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Bismarck ND 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Columbus OH 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 23:00 PDT Salem OR 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 63.0°F 68.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Providence RI 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0