Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.32 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.43 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.71 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.84 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.00 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.00 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.02 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.16 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.17 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.22 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.23 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.24 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.27 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.27 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.28 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.29 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.30 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.31 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.33 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.34 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.35 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.37 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.38 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.40 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.42 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.45 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.49 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.56 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.59 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.62 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.66 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.72 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.75 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.79 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.83 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.96 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.00 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.03 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.04 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.04 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.15 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.50 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.55 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.56 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.68 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.88 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 4.08 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 4.11 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 4.22 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 5.80 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 65.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 69.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 71.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |