Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.39 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.49 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 1.64 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.71 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.84 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 1.85 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.03 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.05 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.10 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.11 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.14 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.15 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.17 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.18 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.20 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.21 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.21 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.22 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.22 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.26 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.31 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.39 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.42 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.43 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.48 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.52 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.53 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.53 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.61 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.63 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.63 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.65 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.68 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.79 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.81 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.89 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.92 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.96 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.97 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.97 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.08 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.11 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.18 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.19 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.25 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.27 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.37 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.41 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.43 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.79 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |