Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
2883
138432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.56°
2834 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-16 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 57 0.86 0.30 28.2
Raleigh NC 57 1.18 -0.30 28.2
Columbus OH 56 1.20 0.63 27.9
Jefferson City MO 57 1.23 0.18 28.2
Tallahassee FL 57 1.26 -0.42 28.2
Annapolis MD 57 1.33 0.00 28.2
Honolulu HI 57 1.39 0.58 28.2
Cheyenne WY 56 1.45 0.27 27.9
Jackson MS 57 1.46 -0.33 28.2
Harrisburg PA 56 1.64 0.64 27.9
Juneau AK 57 1.65 1.30 28.2
Nashville TN 56 1.71 -0.21 27.9
Montgomery AL 57 1.75 0.07 28.2
Indianapolis IN 57 1.81 0.96 28.2
Little Rock AR 57 1.82 0.49 28.2
Madison WI 56 1.84 1.09 27.9
Topeka KS 57 1.93 1.82 28.2
Frankfort KY 57 1.93 0.21 28.2
Des Moines IA 57 1.98 0.44 28.2
Richmond VA 56 1.98 1.59 27.9
Salem OR 56 2.02 1.48 27.9
Sacramento CA 57 2.12 -0.79 28.2
Lansing MI 57 2.16 1.63 28.2
Bismarck ND 57 2.16 2.16 28.2
Salt Lake City UT 56 2.20 -0.23 27.9
Springfield IL 57 2.33 1.95 28.2
Atlanta GA 57 2.42 -2.14 28.2
Trenton NJ 57 2.56 2.07 28.2
Dover DE 57 2.65 0.51 28.2
Boise ID 57 2.70 1.68 28.2
Oklahoma City OK 56 2.71 0.96 27.9
Pierre SD 56 2.73 2.70 27.9
Helena MT 57 2.77 1.40 28.2
Denver CO 57 3.00 2.40 28.2
Santa Fe NM 57 3.00 -1.18 28.2
Olympia WA 56 3.04 -0.68 27.9
Charleston WV 56 3.07 3.07 27.9
Saint Paul MN 57 3.33 3.16 28.2
Lincoln NE 57 3.37 3.37 28.2
Columbia SC 56 3.50 -3.50 27.9
Augusta ME 57 3.58 1.65 28.2
Hartford CT 57 3.61 2.49 28.2
Phoenix AZ 57 3.68 2.49 28.2
Austin TX 56 3.73 3.27 27.9
Providence RI 56 4.05 3.98 27.9
Carson City NV 57 4.23 3.56 28.2
Boston MA 57 4.32 3.96 28.2
Montpelier VT 56 5.05 2.27 27.9
Concord NH 57 5.19 4.46 28.2
Albany NY 57 5.37 4.04 28.2

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 09:00 MDT Denver CO 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Dover DE 90.0°F 83.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 09:00 MDT Boise ID 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 80.0°F 71.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 91.0°F 86.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Boston MA 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 83.0°F 76.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 85.0°F 80.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 09:00 MDT Helena MT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Concord NH 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Albany NY 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 08:00 PDT Salem OR 62.0°F 58.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Providence RI 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0