Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.31 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.49 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.52 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.88 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.01 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.01 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.01 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.02 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.13 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.14 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.14 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.17 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.17 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.19 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.19 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.20 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.24 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.28 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.29 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.31 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.32 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.34 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.35 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.35 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.40 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.40 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.43 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.55 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.56 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.56 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.59 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.63 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.64 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.72 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.75 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.86 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 3.10 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.10 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.10 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.14 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.18 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.32 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.63 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.72 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 3.86 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.97 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 4.08 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 4.09 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 5.93 | 3.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 39.0°F | 36.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 46.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 40.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |