Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
5563
267072 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.71°
5514 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-18 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 111 1.20 -0.12 37.8
Baton Rouge LA 111 1.21 0.07 37.8
Raleigh NC 111 1.42 0.11 37.8
Honolulu HI 111 1.50 -0.18 37.8
Cheyenne WY 109 1.58 0.29 37.7
Little Rock AR 111 1.75 -0.50 37.8
Jefferson City MO 111 1.75 0.61 37.8
Sacramento CA 111 1.80 -0.02 37.8
Juneau AK 111 1.89 0.38 37.8
Columbus OH 109 1.91 1.19 37.7
Madison WI 109 1.94 0.47 37.7
Indianapolis IN 111 1.95 0.03 37.8
Montgomery AL 111 1.96 -0.77 37.8
Des Moines IA 111 1.96 1.08 37.8
Tallahassee FL 111 2.01 0.19 37.8
Frankfort KY 111 2.05 0.95 37.8
Springfield IL 111 2.23 1.86 37.8
Nashville TN 109 2.25 0.01 37.7
Richmond VA 109 2.25 1.86 37.7
Annapolis MD 111 2.26 0.75 37.8
Atlanta GA 111 2.42 -0.50 37.8
Saint Paul MN 111 2.42 2.08 37.8
Salt Lake City UT 109 2.55 -0.15 37.7
Salem OR 109 2.59 2.09 37.7
Carson City NV 110 2.79 1.68 37.7
Topeka KS 111 2.81 2.74 37.8
Lansing MI 111 2.81 2.22 37.8
Charleston WV 109 2.84 2.26 37.7
Austin TX 109 2.89 1.73 37.7
Trenton NJ 110 2.90 2.45 37.7
Bismarck ND 111 2.96 2.55 37.8
Pierre SD 109 2.99 2.95 37.7
Boise ID 111 3.02 1.50 37.8
Columbia SC 109 3.02 -2.54 37.7
Denver CO 111 3.08 2.54 37.8
Santa Fe NM 110 3.08 -0.70 37.7
Harrisburg PA 109 3.13 2.50 37.7
Providence RI 109 3.18 2.65 37.7
Hartford CT 111 3.20 2.24 37.8
Olympia WA 109 3.29 1.11 37.7
Dover DE 111 3.51 0.85 37.8
Boston MA 111 3.54 2.73 37.8
Augusta ME 111 3.76 1.76 37.8
Oklahoma City OK 109 3.76 2.84 37.7
Helena MT 111 3.94 3.14 37.8
Lincoln NE 111 4.15 4.15 37.8
Phoenix AZ 111 4.22 2.67 37.8
Concord NH 111 4.52 3.86 37.8
Albany NY 110 4.66 3.90 37.7
Montpelier VT 109 4.82 2.56 37.7

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-18 16:00 CDT Montgomery AL 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 AKDT Juneau AK 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 88.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 CDT Little Rock AR 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 PDT Sacramento CA 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 15:00 MDT Denver CO 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Hartford CT 80.0°F 72.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 93.0°F -10.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Atlanta GA 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 11:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 15:00 MDT Boise ID 96.0°F 96.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 CDT Springfield IL 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 87.0°F 91.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 CDT Des Moines IA 94.0°F 91.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 CDT Topeka KS 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Frankfort KY 88.0°F 80.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Augusta ME 76.0°F 66.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Annapolis MD 88.0°F 77.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Boston MA 83.0°F 72.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Lansing MI 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 CDT Jackson MS 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 15:00 MDT Helena MT 92.0°F 87.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 CDT Lincoln NE 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Concord NH 82.0°F 71.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 17:00 EDT Raleigh NC 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 CDT Bismarck ND 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 92.0°F 95.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 84.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 14:00 MDT Denver CO 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 77.0°F 71.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 95.0°F -12.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 92.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-18 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0