Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.17 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.48 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.54 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.86 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.99 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.08 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.08 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.18 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.20 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.23 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.26 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.26 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.29 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.30 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.33 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.34 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.36 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.36 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.46 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.48 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.51 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.51 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.51 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.54 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.54 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.55 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.56 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.67 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.70 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.74 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.75 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.88 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.89 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.93 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.95 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 3.10 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.11 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 3.13 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.13 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 3.16 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.16 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 3.28 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.28 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.30 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.49 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.53 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.75 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.91 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 4.08 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 4.31 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 37.0°F | 38.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 50.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 51.0°F | 57.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 37.0°F | 45.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 47.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 44.0°F | 51.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |