Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 106 | 1.21 | -0.17 | 37.4 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 106 | 1.25 | 0.06 | 37.4 |
| Raleigh NC | 106 | 1.29 | -0.08 | 37.4 |
| Honolulu HI | 106 | 1.49 | -0.11 | 37.4 |
| Cheyenne WY | 105 | 1.58 | 0.27 | 37.3 |
| Columbus OH | 105 | 1.70 | 1.03 | 37.3 |
| Little Rock AR | 106 | 1.75 | -0.45 | 37.4 |
| Jefferson City MO | 106 | 1.79 | 0.62 | 37.4 |
| Juneau AK | 106 | 1.82 | 0.56 | 37.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 106 | 1.82 | -0.08 | 37.4 |
| Indianapolis IN | 106 | 1.90 | 0.18 | 37.4 |
| Des Moines IA | 106 | 1.95 | 1.03 | 37.4 |
| Madison WI | 105 | 1.95 | 0.43 | 37.3 |
| Montgomery AL | 106 | 2.00 | -0.77 | 37.4 |
| Tallahassee FL | 106 | 2.02 | 0.28 | 37.4 |
| Frankfort KY | 106 | 2.04 | 0.89 | 37.4 |
| Annapolis MD | 106 | 2.09 | 0.85 | 37.4 |
| Springfield IL | 106 | 2.23 | 1.83 | 37.4 |
| Nashville TN | 105 | 2.23 | 0.11 | 37.3 |
| Richmond VA | 105 | 2.29 | 1.96 | 37.3 |
| Atlanta GA | 106 | 2.49 | -0.49 | 37.4 |
| Saint Paul MN | 106 | 2.51 | 2.15 | 37.4 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 105 | 2.51 | -0.29 | 37.3 |
| Salem OR | 105 | 2.59 | 2.08 | 37.3 |
| Charleston WV | 105 | 2.68 | 2.09 | 37.3 |
| Topeka KS | 106 | 2.80 | 2.73 | 37.4 |
| Carson City NV | 106 | 2.84 | 1.80 | 37.4 |
| Lansing MI | 106 | 2.87 | 2.40 | 37.4 |
| Pierre SD | 105 | 2.88 | 2.84 | 37.3 |
| Trenton NJ | 106 | 2.90 | 2.42 | 37.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 105 | 2.90 | 2.25 | 37.3 |
| Austin TX | 105 | 2.98 | 1.80 | 37.3 |
| Denver CO | 106 | 3.04 | 2.47 | 37.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 106 | 3.05 | 2.73 | 37.4 |
| Boise ID | 106 | 3.09 | 1.51 | 37.4 |
| Columbia SC | 105 | 3.11 | -2.64 | 37.3 |
| Hartford CT | 106 | 3.12 | 2.14 | 37.4 |
| Santa Fe NM | 106 | 3.15 | -0.70 | 37.4 |
| Providence RI | 105 | 3.17 | 2.64 | 37.3 |
| Dover DE | 106 | 3.21 | 1.36 | 37.4 |
| Olympia WA | 105 | 3.32 | 1.06 | 37.3 |
| Boston MA | 106 | 3.42 | 2.58 | 37.4 |
| Augusta ME | 106 | 3.47 | 1.38 | 37.4 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 105 | 3.85 | 2.90 | 37.3 |
| Helena MT | 106 | 3.86 | 3.03 | 37.4 |
| Phoenix AZ | 106 | 3.99 | 2.37 | 37.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 106 | 4.29 | 4.29 | 37.4 |
| Concord NH | 106 | 4.34 | 3.64 | 37.4 |
| Albany NY | 106 | 4.39 | 3.59 | 37.4 |
| Montpelier VT | 105 | 4.53 | 2.19 | 37.3 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 69.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 72.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |