Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
22633
1086432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.54°
8550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-02 02:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 171 1.32 -0.37 48.0
Honolulu HI 171 1.51 -1.19 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 171 1.60 0.89 48.0
Salem OR 171 1.76 0.84 48.0
Jackson MS 171 1.77 0.37 48.0
Providence RI 171 1.87 -0.44 48.0
Raleigh NC 171 1.91 0.78 48.0
Nashville TN 171 2.10 0.08 48.0
Trenton NJ 171 2.11 -0.51 48.0
Little Rock AR 171 2.18 -0.94 48.0
Annapolis MD 171 2.18 0.81 48.0
Saint Paul MN 171 2.19 0.72 48.0
Carson City NV 171 2.19 1.42 48.0
Sacramento CA 171 2.22 2.01 48.0
Boston MA 171 2.25 0.82 48.0
Harrisburg PA 171 2.25 -0.60 48.0
Charleston WV 171 2.25 1.27 48.0
Atlanta GA 171 2.26 1.13 48.0
Helena MT 171 2.28 0.06 48.0
Augusta ME 171 2.29 -1.53 48.0
Lansing MI 171 2.39 0.79 48.0
Lincoln NE 171 2.40 0.73 48.0
Hartford CT 171 2.42 -1.18 48.0
Austin TX 171 2.43 2.42 48.0
Jefferson City MO 171 2.47 0.90 48.0
Dover DE 171 2.52 -0.29 48.0
Des Moines IA 171 2.58 -0.01 48.0
Indianapolis IN 171 2.61 1.27 48.0
Albany NY 171 2.65 0.08 48.0
Phoenix AZ 171 2.73 -0.30 48.0
Columbus OH 171 2.74 0.84 48.0
Montpelier VT 171 2.82 1.62 48.0
Springfield IL 171 2.83 2.08 48.0
Juneau AK 171 2.84 0.91 48.0
Madison WI 171 2.84 1.15 48.0
Olympia WA 171 2.87 -1.68 48.0
Topeka KS 171 2.93 0.84 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 171 2.94 1.80 48.0
Montgomery AL 171 2.96 -0.33 48.0
Columbia SC 171 3.01 -0.28 48.0
Pierre SD 171 3.05 2.02 48.0
Denver CO 171 3.07 1.75 48.0
Tallahassee FL 171 3.08 0.57 48.0
Concord NH 171 3.19 -1.28 48.0
Bismarck ND 171 3.21 1.07 48.0
Cheyenne WY 171 3.29 0.74 48.0
Santa Fe NM 171 3.34 -1.75 48.0
Boise ID 171 3.37 0.12 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 171 3.52 0.57 48.0
Frankfort KY 171 3.57 2.91 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 85.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 18:00 AKDT Juneau AK 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 MST Phoenix AZ 110.0°F 113.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Little Rock AR 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 PDT Sacramento CA 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 MDT Denver CO 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Hartford CT 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Dover DE 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Atlanta GA 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 MDT Boise ID 93.0°F 96.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Springfield IL 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Des Moines IA 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Topeka KS 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Augusta ME 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Boston MA 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Lansing MI 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Jackson MS 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 MDT Helena MT 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Lincoln NE 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 PDT Carson City NV 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Concord NH 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 20:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Albany NY 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Raleigh NC 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Bismarck ND 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Columbus OH 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 21:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 19:00 PDT Salem OR 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Providence RI 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 22:00 EDT Columbia SC 81.0°F 74.0°F +7.0° 48.0