Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.33 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 1.73 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.90 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 1.97 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.00 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.25 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.32 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.36 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.43 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.46 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.47 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.50 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.51 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.51 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.59 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.64 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.64 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.67 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.67 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.68 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.73 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.74 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.80 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.82 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.83 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.86 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.90 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.95 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.98 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.05 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.12 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 3.13 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 3.18 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.21 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.24 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 3.29 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.29 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 3.34 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 3.37 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.40 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.47 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.56 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.65 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.71 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.73 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 3.73 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 3.75 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.87 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 4.28 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 4.46 | 3.51 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 58.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 64.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 28.0°F | 29.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 54.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 59.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |