Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.59 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.65 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 1.78 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.84 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 1.85 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 1.88 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.91 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.95 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.95 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 1.98 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 1.99 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.03 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.16 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.20 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.23 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.23 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.24 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.26 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.29 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.35 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.40 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.41 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.42 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.44 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.45 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.47 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.55 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.64 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.70 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.71 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.78 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.79 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.81 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.82 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.85 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.85 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.88 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.90 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.96 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.98 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 3.11 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.32 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 3.34 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.35 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.37 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.41 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 3.46 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.52 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.68 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.79 | -2.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 35.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 60.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |