Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.31 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.35 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 1.61 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 1.62 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 1.63 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 1.67 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.72 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.78 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 1.84 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.05 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.08 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.15 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.24 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.25 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.32 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.33 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.35 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.38 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.39 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.48 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.52 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.54 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.54 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.56 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.60 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.67 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.72 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.76 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.76 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.81 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.84 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.87 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.89 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.89 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.92 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.94 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.04 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 3.09 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.11 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.12 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.13 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 3.18 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.27 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.34 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.35 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.42 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 3.51 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.82 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.85 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 4.19 | -3.49 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 76.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 104.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 88.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 74.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 70.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 80.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 62.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 86.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |