Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lansing MI | 177 | 1.81 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.84 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.87 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 1.90 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 1.91 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.98 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 1.99 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.06 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.10 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.18 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.20 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.22 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.23 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.27 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.28 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.28 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.29 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.31 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.32 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.34 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.34 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.45 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.45 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.48 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.49 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.49 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.50 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.54 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.54 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.55 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.59 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.63 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.65 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.68 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.68 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.69 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 2.73 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.79 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.80 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.82 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 3.03 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 3.15 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.19 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.21 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.35 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.36 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.38 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.41 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.60 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 4.23 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 102.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-05 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 79.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 70.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 81.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |