Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.44 | 0.00 | 47.8 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.62 | -0.95 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.65 | 0.70 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.73 | -0.29 | 47.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.89 | -1.54 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 1.94 | 0.75 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.16 | 1.33 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.22 | 1.87 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.23 | 0.01 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.30 | 0.77 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.32 | 1.26 | 47.8 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.33 | 0.42 | 47.8 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.36 | 1.36 | 47.8 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.39 | 1.11 | 47.8 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.40 | -0.10 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.40 | 0.82 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.42 | 0.36 | 47.8 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.43 | 1.29 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.51 | 1.56 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.52 | -0.12 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.53 | 0.57 | 47.8 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.58 | 0.40 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.60 | 1.39 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.68 | 0.70 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.73 | 1.29 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.73 | 0.38 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.77 | 2.30 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.78 | 2.27 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.80 | -2.39 | 47.8 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.87 | 2.06 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.89 | 2.02 | 47.8 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.94 | 2.77 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.95 | 1.64 | 47.8 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.96 | 2.02 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.98 | 2.70 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.02 | 1.55 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 3.05 | 1.08 | 47.8 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.09 | -1.49 | 47.8 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 3.12 | 0.87 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.16 | 2.09 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.26 | 1.19 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.29 | 1.89 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.41 | 2.39 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.43 | -0.95 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.46 | 3.26 | 47.8 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.61 | -0.43 | 47.8 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.71 | 0.89 | 47.8 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.81 | 1.25 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 4.44 | 4.33 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 4.65 | 4.57 | 47.8 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 104.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 72.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 82.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 91.0°F | 76.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |