Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.46 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.65 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 1.73 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 1.85 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 1.89 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.01 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.04 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.09 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.09 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.12 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.17 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.17 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.18 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.21 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.29 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.30 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.31 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.32 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.32 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.34 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.34 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.34 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.36 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.38 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.40 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.46 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.47 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.48 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.48 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.51 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.53 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.57 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.60 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.63 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.73 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.76 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.78 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.79 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.83 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.86 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.90 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.91 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.01 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.03 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 3.05 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.06 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.15 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.26 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.32 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.42 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 53.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 62.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 53.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |