Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.43 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.76 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 1.87 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.90 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.94 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.95 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.95 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.05 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.06 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.06 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.17 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.22 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.22 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.28 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.31 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.36 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.37 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.37 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.41 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.43 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.44 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.45 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.51 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.55 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.58 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.60 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.61 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.63 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.63 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.66 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.73 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.73 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.74 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.81 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.81 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.82 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.84 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.92 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.98 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.98 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 3.05 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.07 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 3.11 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 3.17 | -2.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.21 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 3.35 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.36 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.50 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.70 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 4.04 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 MST | Denver CO | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 MST | Boise ID | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Springfield IL | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Topeka KS | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 42.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 41.0°F | 33.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Jackson MS | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 MST | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 40.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 PST | Carson City NV | 40.0°F | 36.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 38.0°F | 43.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 31.0°F | 25.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 PST | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 EST | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |