Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.35 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.73 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.91 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 1.98 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.02 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.23 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.34 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.35 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.43 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.44 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.45 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.46 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.51 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.54 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.62 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.65 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.65 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.67 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.70 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.71 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.73 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.73 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.79 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.82 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.86 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.89 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.92 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.93 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.96 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.04 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.09 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.11 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 3.19 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.21 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.23 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.26 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.32 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 3.35 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 3.41 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.43 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.50 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.57 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.64 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 3.69 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 3.71 | 3.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.72 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.75 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.87 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 4.21 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 4.49 | 3.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 59.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 29.0°F | 29.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 56.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 58.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |