Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 96 | 1.20 | 0.24 | 36.2 |
| Jackson MS | 96 | 1.24 | -0.14 | 36.2 |
| Raleigh NC | 96 | 1.28 | 0.05 | 36.2 |
| Honolulu HI | 96 | 1.57 | -0.07 | 36.2 |
| Cheyenne WY | 94 | 1.62 | 0.38 | 36.0 |
| Columbus OH | 95 | 1.72 | 1.11 | 36.1 |
| Little Rock AR | 96 | 1.76 | -0.32 | 36.2 |
| Madison WI | 94 | 1.77 | 0.60 | 36.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 96 | 1.86 | 0.78 | 36.2 |
| Juneau AK | 96 | 1.88 | 0.75 | 36.2 |
| Indianapolis IN | 96 | 1.90 | 0.38 | 36.2 |
| Sacramento CA | 96 | 1.93 | -0.16 | 36.2 |
| Des Moines IA | 96 | 1.98 | 0.96 | 36.2 |
| Tallahassee FL | 96 | 2.03 | 0.14 | 36.2 |
| Annapolis MD | 96 | 2.07 | 1.01 | 36.2 |
| Frankfort KY | 96 | 2.09 | 0.82 | 36.2 |
| Montgomery AL | 96 | 2.10 | -0.94 | 36.2 |
| Springfield IL | 96 | 2.36 | 1.99 | 36.2 |
| Nashville TN | 94 | 2.36 | 0.26 | 36.0 |
| Richmond VA | 94 | 2.37 | 2.01 | 36.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 94 | 2.39 | 0.07 | 36.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 96 | 2.54 | 2.15 | 36.2 |
| Pierre SD | 94 | 2.59 | 2.54 | 36.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 96 | 2.66 | -0.64 | 36.2 |
| Harrisburg PA | 95 | 2.66 | 1.95 | 36.1 |
| Charleston WV | 94 | 2.73 | 2.54 | 36.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 96 | 2.78 | 2.43 | 36.2 |
| Salem OR | 95 | 2.78 | 2.29 | 36.1 |
| Trenton NJ | 96 | 2.88 | 2.35 | 36.2 |
| Carson City NV | 96 | 2.98 | 1.90 | 36.2 |
| Topeka KS | 96 | 3.00 | 2.94 | 36.2 |
| Lansing MI | 96 | 3.03 | 2.70 | 36.2 |
| Denver CO | 96 | 3.04 | 2.54 | 36.2 |
| Olympia WA | 94 | 3.16 | 0.63 | 36.0 |
| Austin TX | 94 | 3.18 | 2.14 | 36.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 96 | 3.22 | -0.99 | 36.2 |
| Boise ID | 96 | 3.23 | 1.54 | 36.2 |
| Providence RI | 95 | 3.25 | 3.15 | 36.1 |
| Columbia SC | 95 | 3.27 | -3.08 | 36.1 |
| Dover DE | 96 | 3.28 | 1.43 | 36.2 |
| Hartford CT | 96 | 3.29 | 2.52 | 36.2 |
| Augusta ME | 96 | 3.46 | 1.17 | 36.2 |
| Boston MA | 96 | 3.48 | 2.98 | 36.2 |
| Helena MT | 96 | 3.76 | 2.84 | 36.2 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 95 | 3.98 | 2.95 | 36.1 |
| Phoenix AZ | 96 | 4.15 | 2.77 | 36.2 |
| Lincoln NE | 96 | 4.27 | 4.27 | 36.2 |
| Concord NH | 96 | 4.54 | 3.85 | 36.2 |
| Albany NY | 96 | 4.61 | 3.78 | 36.2 |
| Montpelier VT | 94 | 4.72 | 2.23 | 36.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 65.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |