Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.44 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.52 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.80 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.93 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.95 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.96 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.01 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.02 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.12 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.13 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.26 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.33 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.35 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.39 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.41 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.41 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.49 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.52 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.53 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.53 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.56 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.59 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.59 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.60 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.70 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.72 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.77 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.83 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.86 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.95 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.01 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.06 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 3.10 | -2.50 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.10 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 3.19 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 3.22 | -3.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.22 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 3.24 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.31 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.34 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.37 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.41 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.44 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.50 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.57 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 3.70 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.73 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.92 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 4.30 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 34.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 45.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 35.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |