Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.30 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.60 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 1.79 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.84 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 1.88 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.88 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 1.90 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.98 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.08 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.08 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.10 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.14 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.18 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.18 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.26 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.26 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.26 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.27 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.27 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.27 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.28 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.34 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.44 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.47 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.50 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.58 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.59 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.64 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.66 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.66 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.84 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.84 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.86 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.89 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.90 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.90 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.98 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.98 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.99 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.03 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.14 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.14 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 3.20 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.32 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.38 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.39 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.51 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.55 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.65 | 3.17 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.67 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 39.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 74.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |