Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.24 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.79 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.84 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 1.94 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.06 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.08 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.28 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.33 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.41 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.44 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.44 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.52 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.53 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.59 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.61 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.64 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.66 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.69 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.71 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.75 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.82 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.84 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.86 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.87 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.92 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.99 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.99 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.99 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.03 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.04 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 3.08 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 3.11 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.11 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.15 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 3.16 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.21 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 3.27 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.37 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.49 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 3.55 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 3.56 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 3.60 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.92 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 4.01 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 4.02 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 4.07 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 4.51 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 5.03 | 4.82 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 5.18 | 4.50 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 5.94 | 4.05 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 39.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 61.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 36.0°F | 33.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 54.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 36.0°F | 42.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |