Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.46 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.60 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 1.64 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 1.87 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.92 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.06 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.08 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.12 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.15 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.17 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.18 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.20 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.22 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.23 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.25 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.25 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.26 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.30 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.33 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.33 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.35 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.35 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.40 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.41 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.42 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.43 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.45 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.51 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.52 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.55 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.55 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.59 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.65 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.67 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.67 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.74 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.81 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.88 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.93 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.96 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.97 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.97 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.98 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.05 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.06 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.10 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.28 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.28 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.41 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.44 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 105.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 90.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 77.0°F | 68.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |