Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
25783
1237632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.48°
9300 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-04 17:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 186 1.43 -0.74 48.0
Honolulu HI 186 1.65 -1.35 48.0
Salem OR 186 1.80 0.94 48.0
Nashville TN 186 1.84 -0.01 48.0
Lansing MI 186 1.88 0.31 48.0
Little Rock AR 186 1.99 -0.40 48.0
Charleston WV 186 2.04 1.39 48.0
Raleigh NC 186 2.08 -0.55 48.0
Columbus OH 186 2.10 -0.13 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 186 2.12 1.53 48.0
Jefferson City MO 186 2.14 1.24 48.0
Sacramento CA 186 2.17 1.66 48.0
Trenton NJ 186 2.18 -1.01 48.0
Boston MA 186 2.19 0.11 48.0
Topeka KS 186 2.27 1.17 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 186 2.27 1.06 48.0
Austin TX 186 2.28 2.13 48.0
Dover DE 186 2.31 -0.97 48.0
Providence RI 186 2.32 -0.62 48.0
Augusta ME 186 2.34 -1.46 48.0
Annapolis MD 186 2.34 0.47 48.0
Saint Paul MN 186 2.37 0.16 48.0
Jackson MS 186 2.37 1.22 48.0
Indianapolis IN 186 2.39 0.13 48.0
Atlanta GA 186 2.43 0.61 48.0
Juneau AK 186 2.45 0.86 48.0
Harrisburg PA 186 2.46 -0.39 48.0
Montpelier VT 186 2.49 1.01 48.0
Des Moines IA 186 2.52 -0.12 48.0
Frankfort KY 186 2.54 1.85 48.0
Carson City NV 186 2.55 1.82 48.0
Helena MT 186 2.57 0.27 48.0
Springfield IL 186 2.61 2.00 48.0
Lincoln NE 186 2.71 1.86 48.0
Madison WI 186 2.72 1.14 48.0
Phoenix AZ 186 2.76 -1.18 48.0
Hartford CT 186 2.76 -1.58 48.0
Columbia SC 186 2.76 0.33 48.0
Boise ID 186 2.83 -0.20 48.0
Albany NY 186 2.84 -0.33 48.0
Montgomery AL 186 2.88 -0.90 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 186 2.90 1.70 48.0
Tallahassee FL 186 3.01 0.26 48.0
Olympia WA 186 3.03 -0.35 48.0
Cheyenne WY 186 3.11 0.56 48.0
Pierre SD 186 3.16 1.79 48.0
Santa Fe NM 186 3.23 -1.18 48.0
Denver CO 186 3.25 1.63 48.0
Bismarck ND 186 3.30 0.73 48.0
Concord NH 186 3.40 -2.11 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Montgomery AL 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 09:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 10:00 MST Phoenix AZ 100.0°F 95.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Little Rock AR 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 10:00 PDT Sacramento CA 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 11:00 MDT Denver CO 70.0°F 58.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Hartford CT 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Dover DE 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Atlanta GA 85.0°F 72.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 07:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 11:00 MDT Boise ID 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Springfield IL 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 73.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Topeka KS 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Frankfort KY 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Augusta ME 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Annapolis MD 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Boston MA 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Lansing MI 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Jackson MS 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 11:00 MDT Helena MT 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Lincoln NE 80.0°F 69.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 10:00 PDT Carson City NV 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Concord NH 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Trenton NJ 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 11:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Albany NY 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Raleigh NC 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Bismarck ND 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Columbus OH 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 12:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 10:00 PDT Salem OR 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Providence RI 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 13:00 EDT Columbia SC 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0