Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
21783
1045632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.54°
8900 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-01 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 178 1.36 -0.98 48.0
Richmond VA 178 1.51 -0.33 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 178 1.63 0.84 48.0
Jackson MS 178 1.71 0.61 48.0
Providence RI 178 1.84 -0.36 48.0
Salem OR 178 1.87 1.11 48.0
Carson City NV 178 1.98 1.12 48.0
Little Rock AR 178 2.01 -0.99 48.0
Charleston WV 178 2.01 0.93 48.0
Atlanta GA 178 2.14 1.42 48.0
Lansing MI 178 2.15 0.56 48.0
Trenton NJ 178 2.15 -0.47 48.0
Helena MT 178 2.16 -0.06 48.0
Austin TX 178 2.18 2.17 48.0
Sacramento CA 178 2.19 1.91 48.0
Boston MA 178 2.19 1.03 48.0
Raleigh NC 178 2.20 1.30 48.0
Augusta ME 178 2.24 -1.47 48.0
Jefferson City MO 178 2.25 0.35 48.0
Harrisburg PA 178 2.25 -0.93 48.0
Annapolis MD 178 2.29 0.78 48.0
Hartford CT 178 2.42 -0.76 48.0
Nashville TN 178 2.47 0.29 48.0
Saint Paul MN 178 2.50 1.19 48.0
Dover DE 178 2.52 -0.25 48.0
Columbia SC 178 2.52 -0.72 48.0
Albany NY 178 2.56 0.38 48.0
Lincoln NE 178 2.57 0.42 48.0
Columbus OH 178 2.62 1.03 48.0
Tallahassee FL 178 2.65 0.24 48.0
Montgomery AL 178 2.67 0.03 48.0
Springfield IL 178 2.67 1.93 48.0
Des Moines IA 178 2.70 0.17 48.0
Olympia WA 178 2.86 -1.66 48.0
Phoenix AZ 178 2.88 -0.57 48.0
Indianapolis IN 178 2.88 1.65 48.0
Concord NH 178 2.94 -0.87 48.0
Madison WI 178 2.95 1.02 48.0
Juneau AK 178 2.97 0.93 48.0
Topeka KS 178 3.04 0.58 48.0
Montpelier VT 178 3.11 1.90 48.0
Pierre SD 178 3.13 1.76 48.0
Santa Fe NM 178 3.14 -1.60 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 178 3.25 2.06 48.0
Boise ID 178 3.29 0.53 48.0
Denver CO 178 3.30 1.71 48.0
Bismarck ND 178 3.38 1.62 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 178 3.41 0.60 48.0
Cheyenne WY 178 3.47 0.34 48.0
Frankfort KY 178 3.84 3.19 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 100.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 MDT Denver CO 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Dover DE 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Boston MA 65.0°F 71.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 MDT Helena MT 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 66.0°F 59.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 02:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Providence RI 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0