Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 74 | 1.19 | 0.54 | 32.8 |
| Raleigh NC | 74 | 1.20 | -0.12 | 32.8 |
| Columbus OH | 73 | 1.29 | 0.77 | 32.5 |
| Jackson MS | 74 | 1.31 | -0.20 | 32.8 |
| Honolulu HI | 74 | 1.43 | 0.14 | 32.8 |
| Cheyenne WY | 73 | 1.52 | 0.45 | 32.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 74 | 1.53 | 0.20 | 32.8 |
| Tallahassee FL | 74 | 1.62 | 0.30 | 32.8 |
| Juneau AK | 74 | 1.66 | 0.77 | 32.8 |
| Madison WI | 73 | 1.79 | 1.05 | 32.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 73 | 1.85 | 0.95 | 32.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 74 | 1.88 | -0.07 | 32.8 |
| Indianapolis IN | 74 | 1.91 | 0.82 | 32.8 |
| Frankfort KY | 74 | 1.92 | 0.43 | 32.8 |
| Des Moines IA | 74 | 1.95 | 0.65 | 32.8 |
| Nashville TN | 73 | 2.00 | 0.03 | 32.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 74 | 2.04 | 1.12 | 32.8 |
| Sacramento CA | 74 | 2.08 | -0.24 | 32.8 |
| Bismarck ND | 74 | 2.11 | 1.68 | 32.8 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 73 | 2.12 | -0.15 | 32.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 74 | 2.30 | -0.89 | 32.8 |
| Atlanta GA | 74 | 2.35 | -1.49 | 32.8 |
| Richmond VA | 73 | 2.36 | 1.92 | 32.5 |
| Pierre SD | 73 | 2.62 | 2.59 | 32.5 |
| Dover DE | 74 | 2.76 | 0.35 | 32.8 |
| Springfield IL | 74 | 2.78 | 2.46 | 32.8 |
| Topeka KS | 74 | 2.80 | 2.72 | 32.8 |
| Trenton NJ | 74 | 2.81 | 2.43 | 32.8 |
| Saint Paul MN | 74 | 2.96 | 2.77 | 32.8 |
| Salem OR | 73 | 2.97 | 2.56 | 32.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 74 | 3.07 | -1.53 | 32.8 |
| Helena MT | 74 | 3.08 | 1.89 | 32.8 |
| Charleston WV | 73 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 32.5 |
| Lansing MI | 74 | 3.18 | 2.77 | 32.8 |
| Denver CO | 74 | 3.19 | 2.70 | 32.8 |
| Boise ID | 74 | 3.22 | 1.97 | 32.8 |
| Hartford CT | 74 | 3.38 | 2.49 | 32.8 |
| Olympia WA | 73 | 3.44 | 0.56 | 32.5 |
| Carson City NV | 74 | 3.45 | 2.58 | 32.8 |
| Columbia SC | 73 | 3.62 | -3.62 | 32.5 |
| Austin TX | 73 | 3.64 | 3.15 | 32.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 73 | 3.68 | 2.34 | 32.5 |
| Providence RI | 73 | 3.70 | 3.59 | 32.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 74 | 3.81 | 2.43 | 32.8 |
| Augusta ME | 74 | 3.99 | 1.91 | 32.8 |
| Boston MA | 74 | 4.09 | 3.47 | 32.8 |
| Lincoln NE | 74 | 4.26 | 4.26 | 32.8 |
| Concord NH | 74 | 5.18 | 4.61 | 32.8 |
| Montpelier VT | 73 | 5.23 | 2.41 | 32.5 |
| Albany NY | 74 | 5.35 | 4.32 | 32.8 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 78.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |