Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.51 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.69 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.80 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.83 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.87 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 1.96 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 1.97 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.02 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.03 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.07 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.19 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.24 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.26 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.28 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.31 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.31 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.34 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.35 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.41 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.42 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.43 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.49 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.57 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.59 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.62 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.63 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.65 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.66 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.76 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.77 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.79 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.83 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.86 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.89 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.90 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.92 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.96 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.98 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 3.06 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.12 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 3.21 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.24 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.28 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.32 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.42 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.43 | 3.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.50 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.50 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.73 | 3.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 5.20 | 4.87 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 112.0°F | 116.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 95.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 104.0°F | 101.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 95.0°F | 87.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 90.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |