Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.60 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.75 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 1.76 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 1.83 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 1.90 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.91 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 1.98 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.00 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.06 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.11 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.15 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.24 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.25 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.25 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.27 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.28 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.31 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.32 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.33 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.33 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.40 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.42 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.45 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.47 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 2.53 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.55 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.57 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.67 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.68 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.68 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.70 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.73 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.74 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.76 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.77 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.80 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.80 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.81 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.85 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.90 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.04 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 3.05 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.16 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 3.25 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.28 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 3.33 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.34 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.46 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.65 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 4.14 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 21:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 22:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 MST | Denver CO | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 MST | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Topeka KS | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 MST | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 22:00 PST | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 23:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 00:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 22:00 PST | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 01:00 EST | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |