Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.36 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.47 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.64 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.66 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.77 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.79 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.86 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.86 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 1.89 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 1.97 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.09 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.13 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.13 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.25 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.26 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.27 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.30 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.31 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.35 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.43 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.45 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.46 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.47 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.49 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.55 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.59 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.59 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.59 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.62 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.63 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.64 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.68 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.80 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.80 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.88 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.90 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.91 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.97 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.08 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.12 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.26 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 3.43 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.46 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.48 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.59 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.84 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.96 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 4.15 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 4.26 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 5.00 | 4.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 35.0°F | 39.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 35.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 36.0°F | 45.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 44.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |