Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lansing MI | 179 | 1.82 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.83 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.88 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 1.89 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.89 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.96 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 1.99 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.07 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.12 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.21 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.21 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.22 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.22 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.26 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.28 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.28 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.29 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.30 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.32 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.33 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.34 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.45 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.45 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.46 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.46 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.47 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.53 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.54 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.54 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.54 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.57 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.60 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.63 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.69 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.70 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.71 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.73 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.76 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.78 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.82 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 3.02 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.17 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 3.18 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.24 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.33 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.39 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 3.43 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.46 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.63 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 4.18 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 67.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 65.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |