Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.44 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.50 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.74 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 1.82 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.87 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.89 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.01 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.07 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.15 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.17 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.23 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.36 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.41 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.44 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.45 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.46 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.47 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.48 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.49 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.52 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.58 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.61 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.65 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.66 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.69 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.74 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.78 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.78 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.88 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.97 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.99 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.99 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.03 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 3.07 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.21 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.23 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.25 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.26 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.28 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.31 | -3.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.31 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 3.36 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 3.38 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.44 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.62 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.69 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.90 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 3.95 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 4.19 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 4.25 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 29.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 51.0°F | 37.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 43.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 51.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |