Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.30 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.37 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 1.61 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 1.63 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 1.66 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 1.70 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.72 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.76 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 1.87 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.05 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.08 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.15 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.27 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.30 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.31 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.33 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.36 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.36 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.43 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.49 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.51 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.55 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.55 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.56 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.63 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.65 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.70 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.76 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.77 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.78 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.84 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.88 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.90 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.90 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.94 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.97 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.02 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 3.08 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.12 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.14 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 3.15 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.16 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.32 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.33 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.33 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.47 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 3.60 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.77 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.88 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 4.25 | -3.55 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 55.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 74.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 79.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |