Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.41 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 1.49 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.87 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.90 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 1.93 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 1.99 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.00 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.05 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.11 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.11 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.14 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.18 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.24 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.26 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.27 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.29 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.31 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.40 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.40 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.42 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.46 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.47 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.49 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.51 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.51 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.57 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.61 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.64 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.66 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.66 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.69 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.71 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.71 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.72 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.76 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.83 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.91 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.95 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.95 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.06 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.17 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.21 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 3.34 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.49 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.67 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.71 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 4.05 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 4.19 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 4.33 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 4.37 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |