Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.37 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.53 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.77 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.85 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 1.86 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 1.95 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.03 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.12 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.15 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.20 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.30 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.35 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.38 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.44 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.47 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.47 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.49 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.54 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.56 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.57 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.59 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.60 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.61 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.64 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.70 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.72 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.72 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.88 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.91 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.94 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.99 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.01 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.08 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.22 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 3.27 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.27 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 3.32 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 3.33 | -3.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.34 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.34 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.35 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 3.36 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.41 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.44 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.49 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.70 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.73 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 3.93 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 4.04 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 4.34 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 64.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 51.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 67.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 61.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |