Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.12 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.48 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 1.61 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.67 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 1.67 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 1.85 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 1.90 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.97 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.01 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.06 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.11 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.13 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.13 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.17 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.20 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.23 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.23 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.33 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.35 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.40 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.41 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.42 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.43 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.48 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.54 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.54 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.56 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.58 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.59 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.66 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.83 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.89 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.91 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.92 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.92 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.94 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.12 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.14 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.15 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.15 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 3.16 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.18 | -2.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.25 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.31 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.31 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.46 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.66 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 3.70 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.98 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 4.01 | -3.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 87.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 102.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 84.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |