Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.29 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.49 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.52 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.77 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 1.95 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.99 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.04 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.05 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.11 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.14 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.20 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.24 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.24 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.25 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.31 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.31 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.33 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.33 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.34 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.35 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.44 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.47 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.52 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.53 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.55 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.55 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.59 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.61 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.74 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.76 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.78 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.80 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.84 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.85 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.88 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.92 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.05 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.07 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 3.09 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.10 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.21 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.37 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.61 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 3.69 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 3.75 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.76 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.80 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 4.43 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 4.50 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 5.78 | 3.96 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 38.0°F | 38.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 37.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 29.0°F | 33.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 37.0°F | 38.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 38.0°F | 38.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |