Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.35 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.85 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 1.88 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 1.92 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.92 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.19 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.21 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.35 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.38 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.43 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.46 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.46 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.47 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.51 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.53 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.56 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.62 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.63 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.65 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.70 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.80 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.82 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.85 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.87 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.94 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.95 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.98 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.08 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 3.09 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.11 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.16 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.25 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.25 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.27 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.31 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.34 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.39 | -2.50 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 3.50 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.68 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 3.75 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 3.75 | 3.42 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.77 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.77 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.89 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 4.14 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 4.22 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 4.36 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 4.38 | 3.96 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 4.98 | 4.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 6.29 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |