Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.40 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 1.48 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.86 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 1.93 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.93 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.00 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.01 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.08 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.12 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.12 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.15 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.19 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.23 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.25 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.28 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.33 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.40 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.43 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.43 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.46 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.48 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.49 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.51 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.51 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.54 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.57 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.60 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.65 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.66 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.69 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.70 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.71 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.73 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.73 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.82 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.92 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.95 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.97 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.00 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.20 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 3.24 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 3.35 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.45 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.74 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 3.77 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 4.03 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 4.22 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 4.38 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 4.40 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 58.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |