Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.43 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 1.81 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 1.86 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.91 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 1.97 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 1.97 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 1.98 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.02 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.04 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.06 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.13 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.25 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.31 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.32 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.36 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.36 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.36 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.39 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.41 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.43 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.48 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.53 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.55 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.56 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.56 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.58 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.60 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.60 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.62 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.67 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.69 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.69 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.77 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.80 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.80 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.85 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.87 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.97 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 3.01 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.04 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.07 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 3.09 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 3.11 | -2.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 3.11 | -2.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.20 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.31 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 3.40 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 3.41 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.61 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 4.02 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 09:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 46.0°F | 40.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 MST | Denver CO | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 EST | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 EST | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 MST | Boise ID | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 CST | Springfield IL | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 CST | Topeka KS | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 MST | Denver CO | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 EST | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 EST | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 MST | Boise ID | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 CST | Springfield IL | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 CST | Topeka KS | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 59.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 EST | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 EST | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 EST | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 40.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |