Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.14 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.40 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 1.58 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 1.61 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.67 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.82 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 1.83 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 1.93 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 1.96 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.00 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.11 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.13 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.28 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.28 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.32 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.33 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.35 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.38 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.49 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.51 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.51 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.52 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.54 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.57 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.59 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.60 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.61 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.65 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.68 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.70 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.71 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.71 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.80 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.83 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.93 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.01 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.03 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.07 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.09 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.10 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.12 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.13 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.17 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 3.22 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.30 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.40 | -3.08 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.47 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 3.52 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.70 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 4.11 | -3.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 105.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 97.0°F | 101.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 76.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 90.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 65.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |