Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
17583
844032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.69°
9500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-28 21:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 190 1.43 -0.94 48.0
Providence RI 190 1.61 -0.08 48.0
Little Rock AR 190 1.80 -0.04 48.0
Augusta ME 190 1.82 -0.65 48.0
Hartford CT 190 1.88 -0.01 48.0
Trenton NJ 190 1.90 -0.08 48.0
Jackson MS 190 1.95 1.06 48.0
Atlanta GA 190 2.08 0.39 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 190 2.08 1.61 48.0
Austin TX 190 2.14 1.66 48.0
Boston MA 190 2.22 1.35 48.0
Tallahassee FL 190 2.26 0.13 48.0
Concord NH 190 2.26 0.58 48.0
Albany NY 190 2.26 -0.01 48.0
Harrisburg PA 190 2.27 -0.63 48.0
Richmond VA 190 2.28 0.37 48.0
Charleston WV 190 2.33 0.07 48.0
Helena MT 190 2.38 0.84 48.0
Dover DE 190 2.40 0.32 48.0
Annapolis MD 190 2.45 0.66 48.0
Lansing MI 190 2.52 1.11 48.0
Jefferson City MO 190 2.55 0.61 48.0
Raleigh NC 190 2.57 1.09 48.0
Columbus OH 190 2.59 1.70 48.0
Nashville TN 190 2.59 0.48 48.0
Carson City NV 190 2.60 1.40 48.0
Springfield IL 190 2.65 2.19 48.0
Juneau AK 190 2.68 0.71 48.0
Montgomery AL 190 2.73 1.25 48.0
Indianapolis IN 190 2.74 1.36 48.0
Columbia SC 190 2.78 -0.88 48.0
Santa Fe NM 190 2.87 -0.85 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 190 2.91 -1.25 48.0
Madison WI 190 2.91 1.15 48.0
Saint Paul MN 190 2.95 1.79 48.0
Sacramento CA 190 3.00 1.39 48.0
Salem OR 190 3.05 1.48 48.0
Des Moines IA 190 3.11 0.81 48.0
Cheyenne WY 190 3.12 -0.06 48.0
Topeka KS 190 3.14 1.16 48.0
Montpelier VT 190 3.17 1.70 48.0
Olympia WA 190 3.21 -1.67 48.0
Lincoln NE 190 3.32 1.60 48.0
Boise ID 190 3.36 2.86 48.0
Phoenix AZ 190 3.45 0.08 48.0
Denver CO 190 3.71 1.18 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 190 3.77 3.28 48.0
Frankfort KY 190 3.94 3.34 48.0
Bismarck ND 190 3.98 3.32 48.0
Pierre SD 190 4.53 3.59 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Montgomery AL 99.0°F 96.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 13:00 AKDT Juneau AK 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 MST Phoenix AZ 107.0°F 104.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Little Rock AR 104.0°F 99.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 PDT Sacramento CA 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 MDT Denver CO 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Hartford CT 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Dover DE 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 100.0°F 96.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Atlanta GA 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 MDT Boise ID 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Springfield IL 88.0°F 83.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Des Moines IA 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Topeka KS 92.0°F 87.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Frankfort KY 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 97.0°F 94.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Annapolis MD 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Boston MA 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Lansing MI 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Jackson MS 99.0°F 96.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 95.0°F 84.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 MDT Helena MT 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Lincoln NE 92.0°F 94.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 PDT Carson City NV 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Concord NH 77.0°F 66.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Trenton NJ 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 15:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 92.0°F 86.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 71.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Raleigh NC 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Bismarck ND 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Columbus OH 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 16:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 102.0°F 101.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 14:00 PDT Salem OR 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 78.0°F 67.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Providence RI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 17:00 EDT Columbia SC 96.0°F 98.0°F -2.0° 48.0