Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 133 | 1.16 | 0.03 | 39.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 133 | 1.31 | 0.30 | 39.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 133 | 1.60 | 0.32 | 39.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 133 | 1.65 | -0.57 | 39.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 133 | 1.65 | 0.38 | 39.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 133 | 1.67 | -0.57 | 39.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 133 | 1.71 | 0.02 | 39.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 132 | 1.71 | 0.35 | 39.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 133 | 1.89 | 0.04 | 39.5 |
| Madison WI | 132 | 1.89 | 0.67 | 39.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 133 | 1.95 | 1.17 | 39.5 |
| Juneau AK | 133 | 1.98 | -0.07 | 39.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 133 | 1.98 | 1.07 | 39.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 133 | 2.00 | 0.41 | 39.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 133 | 2.06 | -0.36 | 39.5 |
| Columbus OH | 132 | 2.08 | 1.48 | 39.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 133 | 2.20 | 1.89 | 39.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 133 | 2.23 | 0.95 | 39.5 |
| Nashville TN | 132 | 2.27 | -0.07 | 39.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 133 | 2.35 | -0.08 | 39.5 |
| Springfield IL | 133 | 2.35 | 1.98 | 39.5 |
| Salem OR | 132 | 2.45 | 1.94 | 39.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 132 | 2.45 | -0.41 | 39.5 |
| Richmond VA | 132 | 2.47 | 1.74 | 39.5 |
| Austin TX | 132 | 2.52 | 1.33 | 39.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 133 | 2.68 | 2.19 | 39.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 133 | 2.74 | 2.31 | 39.5 |
| Charleston WV | 132 | 2.75 | 1.80 | 39.5 |
| Lansing MI | 133 | 2.81 | 2.32 | 39.5 |
| Carson City NV | 133 | 2.82 | 0.89 | 39.5 |
| Boise ID | 133 | 2.86 | 1.56 | 39.5 |
| Topeka KS | 133 | 2.87 | 2.78 | 39.5 |
| Denver CO | 133 | 2.94 | 2.37 | 39.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 133 | 2.99 | -0.72 | 39.5 |
| Columbia SC | 132 | 3.00 | -2.61 | 39.5 |
| Hartford CT | 133 | 3.04 | 2.20 | 39.5 |
| Olympia WA | 132 | 3.12 | 1.29 | 39.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 132 | 3.15 | 2.56 | 39.5 |
| Providence RI | 132 | 3.30 | 2.85 | 39.5 |
| Dover DE | 133 | 3.35 | 1.08 | 39.5 |
| Pierre SD | 132 | 3.53 | 3.50 | 39.5 |
| Boston MA | 133 | 3.56 | 2.84 | 39.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 132 | 3.58 | 2.82 | 39.5 |
| Augusta ME | 133 | 3.61 | 1.83 | 39.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 133 | 3.68 | 3.62 | 39.5 |
| Helena MT | 133 | 3.77 | 3.04 | 39.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 133 | 3.81 | 2.23 | 39.5 |
| Albany NY | 133 | 4.24 | 3.59 | 39.5 |
| Concord NH | 133 | 4.32 | 3.44 | 39.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 132 | 4.44 | 2.39 | 39.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 90.0°F | 84.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 82.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |