Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.14 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.38 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 1.56 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 1.59 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.68 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.81 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 1.84 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 1.89 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 1.95 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.99 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.07 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.11 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.28 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.29 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.32 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.32 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.35 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.39 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.46 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.49 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.50 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.51 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.54 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.58 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.59 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.59 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.61 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.65 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.66 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.70 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.71 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.72 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.76 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.83 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.95 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.95 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.03 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.04 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.05 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 3.06 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 3.13 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.13 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.17 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 3.20 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.32 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.42 | -3.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.49 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 3.52 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.74 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 4.15 | -3.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 102.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 100.0°F | 98.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 77.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 77.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 94.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 67.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 76.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 71.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 102.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |