Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.43 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 1.75 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 1.87 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.90 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 1.93 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 1.95 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.95 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.05 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.06 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.06 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.18 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.20 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.22 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.29 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.29 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.35 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.35 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.37 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.39 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.44 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.45 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.46 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 2.49 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.53 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.58 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.59 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.60 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.61 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.62 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.67 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.72 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.73 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.73 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.78 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.82 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.82 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.85 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.91 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.95 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.99 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 3.06 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.06 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 3.10 | -2.61 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 3.18 | -2.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.21 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 3.35 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.37 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.52 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.73 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 4.06 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 21:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 MST | Denver CO | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 MST | Boise ID | 38.0°F | 42.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Springfield IL | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Topeka KS | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 54.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 42.0°F | 35.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Jackson MS | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 MST | Helena MT | 36.0°F | 41.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 PST | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 23:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 38.0°F | 44.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 31.0°F | 24.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 00:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-05 22:00 PST | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 01:00 EST | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |