Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.33 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.39 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 1.56 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 1.57 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 1.69 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.72 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 1.72 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.78 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 1.86 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.99 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.07 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.09 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.11 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.15 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.27 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.35 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.38 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.38 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.39 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.41 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.42 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.45 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.58 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.58 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.61 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.62 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.63 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.70 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.70 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.83 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.87 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.91 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.92 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.93 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.96 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.97 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.01 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 3.02 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.05 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.09 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.10 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.11 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 3.13 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.30 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 3.32 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.41 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.61 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.63 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.74 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.89 | -3.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 75.0°F | +18.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 106.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 92.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 88.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 62.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |