Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.61 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.63 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 1.79 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.82 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 1.83 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 1.87 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 1.89 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.94 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.97 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.01 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.01 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.07 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.14 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.21 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.24 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.28 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.29 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.32 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.33 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.36 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.37 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.40 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.44 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.45 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.48 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.50 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.59 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.63 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.72 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.78 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.83 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.84 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.84 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.84 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.87 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.90 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.90 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.91 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.93 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 3.09 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.20 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.21 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.32 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.37 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.41 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.43 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.43 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.78 | 3.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.79 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 98.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |