Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 108 | 1.20 | -0.15 | 37.6 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 108 | 1.23 | 0.06 | 37.6 |
| Raleigh NC | 108 | 1.33 | -0.02 | 37.6 |
| Honolulu HI | 108 | 1.49 | -0.14 | 37.6 |
| Cheyenne WY | 107 | 1.57 | 0.26 | 37.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 108 | 1.76 | -0.48 | 37.6 |
| Jefferson City MO | 108 | 1.77 | 0.60 | 37.6 |
| Sacramento CA | 108 | 1.79 | -0.08 | 37.6 |
| Columbus OH | 107 | 1.81 | 1.08 | 37.5 |
| Juneau AK | 108 | 1.85 | 0.48 | 37.6 |
| Indianapolis IN | 108 | 1.91 | 0.13 | 37.6 |
| Des Moines IA | 108 | 1.94 | 1.03 | 37.6 |
| Madison WI | 107 | 1.97 | 0.48 | 37.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 108 | 1.98 | -0.78 | 37.6 |
| Frankfort KY | 108 | 2.00 | 0.87 | 37.6 |
| Tallahassee FL | 108 | 2.01 | 0.25 | 37.6 |
| Annapolis MD | 108 | 2.19 | 0.70 | 37.6 |
| Nashville TN | 107 | 2.22 | 0.07 | 37.5 |
| Springfield IL | 108 | 2.23 | 1.84 | 37.6 |
| Richmond VA | 107 | 2.26 | 1.91 | 37.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 108 | 2.45 | -0.47 | 37.6 |
| Saint Paul MN | 108 | 2.47 | 2.12 | 37.6 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 107 | 2.51 | -0.23 | 37.5 |
| Salem OR | 107 | 2.58 | 2.07 | 37.5 |
| Charleston WV | 107 | 2.75 | 2.15 | 37.5 |
| Topeka KS | 108 | 2.80 | 2.72 | 37.6 |
| Carson City NV | 108 | 2.82 | 1.73 | 37.6 |
| Lansing MI | 108 | 2.85 | 2.31 | 37.6 |
| Trenton NJ | 108 | 2.89 | 2.43 | 37.6 |
| Pierre SD | 107 | 2.93 | 2.89 | 37.5 |
| Austin TX | 107 | 2.93 | 1.78 | 37.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 108 | 3.00 | 2.67 | 37.6 |
| Harrisburg PA | 107 | 3.02 | 2.38 | 37.5 |
| Columbia SC | 107 | 3.07 | -2.58 | 37.5 |
| Denver CO | 108 | 3.08 | 2.53 | 37.6 |
| Hartford CT | 108 | 3.08 | 2.10 | 37.6 |
| Boise ID | 108 | 3.08 | 1.53 | 37.6 |
| Santa Fe NM | 108 | 3.10 | -0.68 | 37.6 |
| Providence RI | 107 | 3.14 | 2.60 | 37.5 |
| Olympia WA | 107 | 3.29 | 1.07 | 37.5 |
| Dover DE | 108 | 3.31 | 1.18 | 37.6 |
| Boston MA | 108 | 3.41 | 2.57 | 37.6 |
| Augusta ME | 108 | 3.58 | 1.53 | 37.6 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 107 | 3.79 | 2.85 | 37.5 |
| Helena MT | 108 | 3.89 | 3.07 | 37.6 |
| Phoenix AZ | 108 | 4.06 | 2.47 | 37.6 |
| Lincoln NE | 108 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 37.6 |
| Concord NH | 108 | 4.35 | 3.67 | 37.6 |
| Albany NY | 108 | 4.55 | 3.77 | 37.6 |
| Montpelier VT | 107 | 4.66 | 2.36 | 37.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 81.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 93.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 68.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 91.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 83.0°F | 69.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 97.0°F | 91.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 86.0°F | 74.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 76.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |