Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.31 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.81 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 1.83 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.87 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.90 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.18 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.37 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.37 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.39 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.44 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.46 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.49 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.49 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.54 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.56 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.59 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.61 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.63 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.63 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.65 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.65 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.71 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.72 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.74 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.77 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.84 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.01 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.02 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.05 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.10 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 3.16 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.16 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 3.21 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.24 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.24 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.31 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.31 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.32 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.57 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.62 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.68 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 3.71 | 3.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 3.82 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.85 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.87 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 4.04 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 4.04 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 4.11 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 4.59 | 3.92 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 5.92 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 61.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 35.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 61.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 68.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |