Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.32 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.75 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 1.96 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.05 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.09 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.15 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.24 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.29 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.37 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.38 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.38 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.40 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.46 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.46 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.52 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.54 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.58 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.58 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.63 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.68 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.75 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.80 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.81 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.84 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.89 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.91 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.96 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.01 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.08 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 3.13 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.16 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.18 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.19 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.23 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.27 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.33 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 3.33 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.39 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 3.56 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.59 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 3.60 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.66 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.69 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.93 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 4.01 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 4.02 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 4.22 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 4.45 | 4.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 4.82 | 4.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 6.15 | 3.54 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 67.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |