Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.36 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.73 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.91 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 1.99 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.02 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.22 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.33 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.36 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.41 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.45 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.45 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.45 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.51 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.55 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.63 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.64 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.66 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.68 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.71 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.72 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.72 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.74 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.80 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.83 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.86 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.90 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.94 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.95 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.96 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.02 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.08 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 3.11 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 3.13 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.23 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.23 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.27 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.34 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 3.35 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 3.43 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.44 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.51 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.55 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.64 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 3.68 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 3.70 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.71 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.77 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.89 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 4.17 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 4.51 | 3.55 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 60.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 74.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 30.0°F | 32.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 57.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |