Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.23 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.72 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.93 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.09 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.16 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.26 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.29 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.39 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.47 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.48 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.51 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.54 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.55 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.55 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.63 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.64 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.65 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.68 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.71 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.71 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.71 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.79 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.83 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.85 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.85 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.89 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.90 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.94 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.97 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.98 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.98 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 3.01 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.01 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 3.08 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.11 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 3.11 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.11 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.14 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.28 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 3.37 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.52 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 3.62 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.76 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 3.90 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.92 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 4.01 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 4.43 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 4.49 | 4.27 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 4.77 | 3.74 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 5.65 | 4.34 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 43.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |