Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.37 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.70 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.94 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.01 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.04 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.12 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.32 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.32 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.39 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.42 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.43 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.44 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.52 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.56 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.59 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.69 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.69 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.72 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.74 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.75 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.76 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.78 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.82 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.87 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.89 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.93 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.94 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.95 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.96 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.98 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.99 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.05 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 3.08 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.15 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.29 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 3.29 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 3.31 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.37 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.38 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 3.45 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.51 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.56 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.66 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.66 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 3.69 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 3.72 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.83 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.93 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.96 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 4.51 | 3.52 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 65.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 66.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 65.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |