Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.22 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.57 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.95 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.05 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.12 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.28 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.37 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.41 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.50 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.53 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.54 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.54 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.57 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.63 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.65 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.67 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.68 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.71 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.73 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.74 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.79 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.80 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.89 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.93 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.94 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.96 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.96 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.98 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.00 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 3.02 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 3.05 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.06 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 3.10 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.11 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 3.14 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.15 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 3.15 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.18 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.28 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.42 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 3.55 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 3.72 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.94 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 4.05 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 4.08 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 4.10 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 4.67 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 4.80 | 4.64 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 4.95 | 3.95 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 5.88 | 4.49 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 65.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |