Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.31 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.45 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.74 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 1.84 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 1.85 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.93 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 1.95 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.98 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.00 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.20 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.25 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.25 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.27 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.29 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.32 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.32 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.35 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.40 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.40 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.41 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.42 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.43 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.46 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.48 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.48 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.52 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.52 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.52 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.60 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.60 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.70 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.74 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.75 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.83 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.84 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.86 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.89 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.99 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.01 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.05 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 3.09 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.19 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.22 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.23 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.37 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.57 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.59 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.65 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 4.36 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 4.60 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 42.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |