Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
69883
3354432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.57°
9000 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-10 11:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 180 1.13 0.32 48.0
Indianapolis IN 180 1.46 -0.17 48.0
Sacramento CA 180 1.65 -0.15 48.0
Jefferson City MO 180 1.71 0.41 48.0
Honolulu HI 180 1.73 -0.97 48.0
Albany NY 180 1.86 -0.66 48.0
Columbus OH 180 1.94 0.73 48.0
Nashville TN 180 1.97 0.18 48.0
Harrisburg PA 180 1.99 -0.13 48.0
Austin TX 180 2.07 -0.10 48.0
Raleigh NC 180 2.08 -0.03 48.0
Columbia SC 180 2.10 0.31 48.0
Annapolis MD 180 2.12 -0.03 48.0
Salem OR 180 2.12 0.56 48.0
Trenton NJ 180 2.14 -1.38 48.0
Cheyenne WY 180 2.21 -0.45 48.0
Hartford CT 180 2.25 -1.23 48.0
Lansing MI 180 2.27 1.43 48.0
Charleston WV 180 2.31 1.72 48.0
Augusta ME 180 2.37 -0.08 48.0
Jackson MS 180 2.38 1.59 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 180 2.38 1.22 48.0
Providence RI 180 2.41 -2.22 48.0
Dover DE 180 2.46 -1.22 48.0
Richmond VA 180 2.46 0.84 48.0
Frankfort KY 180 2.50 1.30 48.0
Saint Paul MN 180 2.51 0.21 48.0
Topeka KS 180 2.52 1.69 48.0
Lincoln NE 180 2.54 1.91 48.0
Atlanta GA 180 2.67 1.15 48.0
Madison WI 180 2.82 1.67 48.0
Boston MA 180 2.84 0.23 48.0
Des Moines IA 180 2.87 1.49 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 180 2.88 1.32 48.0
Helena MT 180 3.02 -1.36 48.0
Juneau AK 180 3.04 -0.09 48.0
Concord NH 180 3.06 -0.39 48.0
Bismarck ND 180 3.08 1.33 48.0
Tallahassee FL 180 3.10 -1.81 48.0
Montpelier VT 180 3.11 0.51 48.0
Carson City NV 180 3.13 -1.34 48.0
Phoenix AZ 180 3.16 -2.81 48.0
Montgomery AL 180 3.27 0.46 48.0
Denver CO 180 3.28 0.94 48.0
Olympia WA 180 3.28 -0.21 48.0
Springfield IL 180 3.46 3.31 48.0
Santa Fe NM 180 3.57 -2.53 48.0
Boise ID 180 3.69 1.19 48.0
Pierre SD 180 3.85 1.84 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 180 3.88 -3.22 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 03:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 MST Phoenix AZ 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Little Rock AR 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 PDT Sacramento CA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 MDT Denver CO 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Hartford CT 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 01:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 MDT Boise ID 55.0°F 60.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Springfield IL 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Des Moines IA 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Topeka KS 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Annapolis MD 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Boston MA 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Lansing MI 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 MDT Helena MT 52.0°F 48.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Lincoln NE 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 PDT Carson City NV 64.0°F 59.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Concord NH 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Trenton NJ 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Bismarck ND 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Providence RI 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 07:00 EDT Columbia SC 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0