Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
73383
3522432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8900 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-13 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 178 1.62 -0.66 48.0
Indianapolis IN 178 1.65 -0.21 48.0
Trenton NJ 178 1.78 -1.38 48.0
Little Rock AR 178 1.82 0.29 48.0
Albany NY 178 1.84 -0.63 48.0
Jackson MS 178 1.88 0.42 48.0
Charleston WV 178 1.89 1.22 48.0
Jefferson City MO 178 1.91 0.29 48.0
Columbus OH 178 1.94 0.12 48.0
Sacramento CA 178 1.96 -0.20 48.0
Lansing MI 178 1.96 0.47 48.0
Annapolis MD 178 1.97 -1.21 48.0
Austin TX 178 1.97 0.60 48.0
Honolulu HI 178 1.98 -1.20 48.0
Saint Paul MN 178 2.09 -0.48 48.0
Harrisburg PA 178 2.19 -1.21 48.0
Hartford CT 178 2.21 -0.86 48.0
Raleigh NC 178 2.21 -1.20 48.0
Nashville TN 178 2.22 -0.35 48.0
Augusta ME 178 2.33 0.04 48.0
Salem OR 178 2.34 -0.46 48.0
Phoenix AZ 178 2.40 -1.58 48.0
Columbia SC 178 2.40 0.10 48.0
Providence RI 178 2.46 -1.85 48.0
Madison WI 178 2.56 0.51 48.0
Atlanta GA 178 2.62 1.31 48.0
Cheyenne WY 178 2.65 0.88 48.0
Bismarck ND 178 2.66 0.72 48.0
Frankfort KY 178 2.76 0.54 48.0
Boise ID 178 2.79 -1.04 48.0
Boston MA 178 2.81 -1.04 48.0
Dover DE 178 2.82 -1.99 48.0
Des Moines IA 178 2.82 1.85 48.0
Concord NH 178 2.85 0.35 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 178 2.88 -1.33 48.0
Montgomery AL 178 2.91 0.67 48.0
Topeka KS 178 3.01 2.28 48.0
Helena MT 178 3.04 -1.01 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 178 3.13 1.26 48.0
Lincoln NE 178 3.15 2.02 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 178 3.15 0.88 48.0
Tallahassee FL 178 3.22 0.03 48.0
Carson City NV 178 3.25 -0.99 48.0
Olympia WA 178 3.32 0.59 48.0
Montpelier VT 178 3.40 1.73 48.0
Denver CO 178 3.47 1.57 48.0
Pierre SD 178 3.55 2.60 48.0
Juneau AK 178 3.59 0.84 48.0
Springfield IL 178 3.70 2.70 48.0
Santa Fe NM 178 3.88 -2.99 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 48.0°F 40.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 MDT Denver CO 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 MDT Boise ID 58.0°F 61.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Boston MA 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 64.0°F 69.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 MDT Helena MT 50.0°F 50.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 53.0°F 66.0°F -13.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Albany NY 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 49.0°F 51.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 PDT Salem OR 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Providence RI 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0