Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.62 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.71 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 1.77 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.81 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 1.84 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.86 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.97 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 1.98 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 1.98 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.06 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.06 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.07 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.08 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.11 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.12 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.14 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.25 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.27 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.32 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.36 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.39 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.41 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.47 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.47 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.48 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.49 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.50 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.51 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.54 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.58 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.64 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.67 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.73 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.74 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.81 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.82 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.83 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.84 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.85 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.96 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.97 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.97 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.27 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.34 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.43 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 3.45 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 3.64 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.80 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.96 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.96 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 MST | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 56.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 MST | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 MST | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 PST | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 59.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 60.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 PST | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 EST | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |