Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 127 | 1.14 | -0.04 | 39.1 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 128 | 1.32 | 0.27 | 39.2 |
| Raleigh NC | 127 | 1.54 | 0.20 | 39.1 |
| Honolulu HI | 128 | 1.63 | -0.49 | 39.2 |
| Cheyenne WY | 126 | 1.66 | 0.50 | 39.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 128 | 1.68 | -0.60 | 39.2 |
| Jefferson City MO | 127 | 1.69 | 0.42 | 39.1 |
| Sacramento CA | 128 | 1.73 | -0.02 | 39.2 |
| Madison WI | 126 | 1.82 | 0.55 | 39.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 128 | 1.87 | 1.05 | 39.2 |
| Frankfort KY | 128 | 1.92 | 0.97 | 39.2 |
| Indianapolis IN | 128 | 1.95 | 0.04 | 39.2 |
| Montgomery AL | 128 | 1.98 | -0.54 | 39.2 |
| Juneau AK | 128 | 1.98 | 0.01 | 39.2 |
| Tallahassee FL | 128 | 2.06 | 0.41 | 39.2 |
| Columbus OH | 126 | 2.06 | 1.44 | 39.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 128 | 2.20 | 0.87 | 39.2 |
| Nashville TN | 126 | 2.24 | 0.06 | 39.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 127 | 2.25 | 1.94 | 39.1 |
| Springfield IL | 128 | 2.33 | 1.94 | 39.2 |
| Atlanta GA | 128 | 2.40 | -0.13 | 39.2 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 126 | 2.46 | -0.32 | 39.0 |
| Salem OR | 126 | 2.47 | 1.96 | 39.0 |
| Richmond VA | 126 | 2.48 | 1.86 | 39.0 |
| Austin TX | 126 | 2.60 | 1.40 | 39.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 127 | 2.75 | 2.31 | 39.1 |
| Carson City NV | 127 | 2.78 | 1.11 | 39.1 |
| Trenton NJ | 127 | 2.79 | 2.33 | 39.1 |
| Lansing MI | 127 | 2.80 | 2.28 | 39.1 |
| Charleston WV | 126 | 2.83 | 1.92 | 39.0 |
| Boise ID | 128 | 2.84 | 1.50 | 39.2 |
| Topeka KS | 128 | 2.90 | 2.80 | 39.2 |
| Denver CO | 128 | 2.94 | 2.34 | 39.2 |
| Santa Fe NM | 127 | 2.99 | -0.63 | 39.1 |
| Columbia SC | 126 | 3.09 | -2.67 | 39.0 |
| Hartford CT | 128 | 3.12 | 2.29 | 39.2 |
| Harrisburg PA | 126 | 3.20 | 2.60 | 39.0 |
| Olympia WA | 126 | 3.23 | 1.34 | 39.0 |
| Pierre SD | 126 | 3.29 | 3.26 | 39.0 |
| Providence RI | 126 | 3.40 | 2.94 | 39.0 |
| Dover DE | 128 | 3.46 | 1.12 | 39.2 |
| Augusta ME | 127 | 3.63 | 1.77 | 39.1 |
| Boston MA | 128 | 3.65 | 2.95 | 39.2 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 126 | 3.71 | 2.91 | 39.0 |
| Helena MT | 127 | 3.76 | 2.99 | 39.1 |
| Lincoln NE | 127 | 3.79 | 3.72 | 39.1 |
| Phoenix AZ | 128 | 3.92 | 2.31 | 39.2 |
| Concord NH | 127 | 4.37 | 3.46 | 39.1 |
| Albany NY | 127 | 4.39 | 3.72 | 39.1 |
| Montpelier VT | 126 | 4.56 | 2.41 | 39.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |