Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.43 | 0.01 | 47.8 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.66 | -0.87 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.66 | 0.73 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.72 | -0.30 | 47.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.89 | -1.55 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 1.92 | 0.75 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.17 | 1.35 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.20 | 0.02 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.28 | 0.78 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.29 | 1.94 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.34 | 1.36 | 47.8 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.36 | 1.10 | 47.8 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.36 | 0.34 | 47.8 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.37 | 1.32 | 47.8 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.38 | 0.78 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.41 | 0.31 | 47.8 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.43 | 1.30 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.45 | -0.01 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.51 | 0.57 | 47.8 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.55 | 0.39 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.62 | 1.30 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.64 | 0.68 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.70 | 0.10 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.71 | 1.24 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.73 | 2.25 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.73 | 0.42 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.83 | -2.43 | 47.8 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.86 | 2.04 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.86 | 2.36 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.87 | 2.02 | 47.8 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.96 | 2.79 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.97 | 2.03 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.98 | 1.53 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.98 | 1.53 | 47.8 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 3.01 | 2.74 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.05 | -1.45 | 47.8 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 3.18 | 0.74 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 3.18 | 2.14 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 3.21 | 1.28 | 47.8 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.24 | 1.87 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.36 | 1.32 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.41 | 2.36 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.41 | -0.89 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.46 | 3.26 | 47.8 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.64 | -0.33 | 47.8 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.66 | 0.87 | 47.8 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.78 | 1.20 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 4.44 | 4.34 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 4.67 | 4.59 | 47.8 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 65.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 63.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 68.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |