Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.21 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 1.61 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.70 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 1.71 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.73 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.85 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.92 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 1.96 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.06 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.06 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.07 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.10 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.17 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.21 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.25 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.27 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.27 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.32 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.35 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.35 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.38 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.40 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.46 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.46 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.47 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.47 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.56 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.58 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.60 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.62 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.63 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.65 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.71 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.71 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.89 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.89 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.97 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.00 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 3.05 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 3.08 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 3.15 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.24 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.46 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.54 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.65 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.74 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.76 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.95 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 101.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |