Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.12 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.47 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 1.66 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 1.68 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.76 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 1.85 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.91 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 1.99 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.02 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.05 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.10 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.10 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.10 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.12 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.14 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.22 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.23 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.24 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.34 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.38 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.38 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.39 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.45 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.46 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.47 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.49 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.52 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.54 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.63 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.79 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.82 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.84 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.89 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.01 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 3.05 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.05 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.09 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.11 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 3.14 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.15 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.17 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.23 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.26 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.29 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.43 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.58 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.68 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.82 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.85 | -3.10 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |