Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
66683
3200832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
9400 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-07 19:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 188 1.29 -0.67 48.0
Little Rock AR 188 1.31 0.76 48.0
Sacramento CA 188 1.56 0.31 48.0
Jefferson City MO 188 1.66 0.86 48.0
Nashville TN 188 1.71 1.13 48.0
Honolulu HI 188 1.77 -1.39 48.0
Salem OR 188 1.79 0.98 48.0
Raleigh NC 188 1.80 0.49 48.0
Des Moines IA 188 1.95 0.74 48.0
Austin TX 188 1.95 -0.16 48.0
Columbus OH 188 1.97 0.37 48.0
Columbia SC 188 2.07 0.15 48.0
Jackson MS 188 2.22 1.30 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 188 2.25 0.97 48.0
Augusta ME 188 2.28 0.31 48.0
Albany NY 188 2.28 0.46 48.0
Boston MA 188 2.40 0.64 48.0
Topeka KS 188 2.46 1.55 48.0
Saint Paul MN 188 2.51 0.34 48.0
Charleston WV 188 2.52 2.24 48.0
Atlanta GA 188 2.55 1.37 48.0
Springfield IL 188 2.55 2.37 48.0
Frankfort KY 188 2.55 1.89 48.0
Dover DE 188 2.59 0.36 48.0
Cheyenne WY 188 2.61 -0.97 48.0
Concord NH 188 2.64 -0.86 48.0
Lansing MI 188 2.68 1.71 48.0
Hartford CT 188 2.71 0.07 48.0
Annapolis MD 188 2.71 1.24 48.0
Madison WI 188 2.73 2.12 48.0
Richmond VA 188 2.80 1.31 48.0
Providence RI 188 2.86 -0.72 48.0
Trenton NJ 188 2.88 0.21 48.0
Harrisburg PA 188 2.88 0.93 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 188 2.90 1.89 48.0
Montpelier VT 188 2.94 0.48 48.0
Tallahassee FL 188 2.96 -1.66 48.0
Olympia WA 188 2.97 -0.34 48.0
Juneau AK 188 2.99 0.02 48.0
Helena MT 188 3.06 -0.82 48.0
Carson City NV 188 3.09 -2.29 48.0
Lincoln NE 188 3.14 2.73 48.0
Denver CO 188 3.24 0.05 48.0
Bismarck ND 188 3.30 1.37 48.0
Montgomery AL 188 3.42 -0.13 48.0
Santa Fe NM 188 3.53 -1.49 48.0
Phoenix AZ 188 3.66 -1.97 48.0
Boise ID 188 3.66 1.17 48.0
Pierre SD 188 4.12 2.10 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 188 4.23 -3.57 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Montgomery AL 94.0°F 94.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 60.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 MST Phoenix AZ 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Little Rock AR 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 PDT Sacramento CA 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 13:00 MDT Denver CO 88.0°F 80.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Hartford CT 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 09:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 13:00 MDT Boise ID 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Springfield IL 88.0°F 83.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Des Moines IA 84.0°F 75.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Topeka KS 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Frankfort KY 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 85.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Boston MA 75.0°F 80.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Lansing MI 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Jackson MS 96.0°F 98.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 13:00 MDT Helena MT 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Lincoln NE 94.0°F 91.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 PDT Carson City NV 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Concord NH 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Trenton NJ 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 13:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Albany NY 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Raleigh NC 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Bismarck ND 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Columbus OH 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 PDT Salem OR 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Providence RI 74.0°F 80.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0