Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
19483
935232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.55°
9000 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-30 11:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 180 1.19 -0.64 48.0
Providence RI 180 1.58 -0.33 48.0
Jackson MS 180 1.71 0.82 48.0
Richmond VA 180 1.71 -0.19 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 180 1.75 1.34 48.0
Little Rock AR 180 1.81 0.03 48.0
Trenton NJ 180 1.94 -0.03 48.0
Boston MA 180 1.97 1.26 48.0
Carson City NV 180 2.00 0.71 48.0
Augusta ME 180 2.01 -1.14 48.0
Hartford CT 180 2.09 -0.47 48.0
Charleston WV 180 2.11 0.57 48.0
Lansing MI 180 2.18 1.17 48.0
Atlanta GA 180 2.23 0.57 48.0
Columbus OH 180 2.24 1.81 48.0
Jefferson City MO 180 2.27 0.26 48.0
Annapolis MD 180 2.29 0.82 48.0
Helena MT 180 2.29 0.43 48.0
Concord NH 180 2.29 0.14 48.0
Raleigh NC 180 2.30 1.61 48.0
Harrisburg PA 180 2.33 -0.41 48.0
Austin TX 180 2.36 2.23 48.0
Lincoln NE 180 2.39 -0.10 48.0
Sacramento CA 180 2.46 2.10 48.0
Dover DE 180 2.46 0.12 48.0
Des Moines IA 180 2.47 -0.38 48.0
Tallahassee FL 180 2.49 0.20 48.0
Albany NY 180 2.51 0.59 48.0
Montgomery AL 180 2.61 0.60 48.0
Salem OR 180 2.62 2.15 48.0
Nashville TN 180 2.62 -0.04 48.0
Olympia WA 180 2.63 -0.71 48.0
Springfield IL 180 2.64 2.16 48.0
Juneau AK 180 2.66 0.88 48.0
Saint Paul MN 180 2.69 1.47 48.0
Indianapolis IN 180 2.74 1.60 48.0
Santa Fe NM 180 2.89 -0.63 48.0
Phoenix AZ 180 2.93 -0.83 48.0
Topeka KS 180 2.96 0.58 48.0
Montpelier VT 180 3.01 2.06 48.0
Boise ID 180 3.11 2.38 48.0
Columbia SC 180 3.16 -1.24 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 180 3.21 0.01 48.0
Madison WI 180 3.21 1.42 48.0
Cheyenne WY 180 3.48 0.91 48.0
Pierre SD 180 3.52 2.15 48.0
Denver CO 180 3.71 2.24 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 180 3.81 3.35 48.0
Frankfort KY 180 3.84 3.53 48.0
Bismarck ND 180 4.01 2.97 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 44.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 MST Phoenix AZ 93.0°F 97.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 MDT Denver CO 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Hartford CT 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Dover DE 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Atlanta GA 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 MDT Boise ID 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Springfield IL 65.0°F 59.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Des Moines IA 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Topeka KS 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Frankfort KY 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Jackson MS 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 MDT Helena MT 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Lincoln NE 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 PDT Carson City NV 61.0°F 57.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Concord NH 61.0°F 66.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Trenton NJ 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Raleigh NC 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Bismarck ND 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Columbus OH 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 06:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 PDT Salem OR 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Providence RI 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 07:00 EDT Columbia SC 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0