Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.15 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.18 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 1.49 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 1.52 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.80 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 1.84 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 1.85 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.88 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.89 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.08 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.09 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.14 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.17 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.17 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.24 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.33 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.35 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.41 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.49 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.51 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.53 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.55 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.61 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.62 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.65 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.70 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.70 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.72 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.73 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.73 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.74 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.75 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.76 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.81 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.84 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.87 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.96 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.98 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 3.11 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.11 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.12 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.13 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.16 | -2.70 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.19 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 3.23 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.30 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.50 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 3.68 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 4.20 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 4.25 | -3.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |