Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 84 | 1.19 | 0.36 | 34.6 |
| Raleigh NC | 84 | 1.21 | 0.02 | 34.6 |
| Jackson MS | 84 | 1.25 | -0.20 | 34.6 |
| Columbus OH | 83 | 1.36 | 0.90 | 34.4 |
| Honolulu HI | 84 | 1.44 | 0.27 | 34.6 |
| Tallahassee FL | 84 | 1.55 | 0.21 | 34.6 |
| Cheyenne WY | 83 | 1.61 | 0.22 | 34.4 |
| Madison WI | 83 | 1.66 | 0.89 | 34.4 |
| Frankfort KY | 84 | 1.80 | 0.35 | 34.6 |
| Little Rock AR | 84 | 1.82 | -0.20 | 34.6 |
| Annapolis MD | 84 | 1.85 | 0.68 | 34.6 |
| Juneau AK | 84 | 1.90 | 1.00 | 34.6 |
| Jefferson City MO | 84 | 1.92 | 1.06 | 34.6 |
| Des Moines IA | 84 | 1.94 | 0.77 | 34.6 |
| Indianapolis IN | 84 | 1.96 | 0.44 | 34.6 |
| Sacramento CA | 84 | 1.98 | -0.19 | 34.6 |
| Nashville TN | 83 | 2.10 | -0.29 | 34.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 83 | 2.20 | 1.39 | 34.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 84 | 2.23 | 1.82 | 34.6 |
| Montgomery AL | 84 | 2.25 | -1.01 | 34.6 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 83 | 2.25 | -0.37 | 34.4 |
| Atlanta GA | 84 | 2.29 | -1.48 | 34.6 |
| Richmond VA | 83 | 2.40 | 1.99 | 34.4 |
| Pierre SD | 83 | 2.46 | 2.41 | 34.4 |
| Springfield IL | 84 | 2.56 | 2.23 | 34.6 |
| Saint Paul MN | 84 | 2.69 | 2.36 | 34.6 |
| Topeka KS | 84 | 2.70 | 2.63 | 34.6 |
| Salem OR | 83 | 2.80 | 2.24 | 34.4 |
| Charleston WV | 83 | 2.95 | 2.93 | 34.4 |
| Trenton NJ | 84 | 2.96 | 2.63 | 34.6 |
| Santa Fe NM | 84 | 2.98 | -1.52 | 34.6 |
| Denver CO | 84 | 3.15 | 2.58 | 34.6 |
| Dover DE | 84 | 3.19 | 1.07 | 34.6 |
| Helena MT | 84 | 3.19 | 2.14 | 34.6 |
| Carson City NV | 84 | 3.20 | 2.25 | 34.6 |
| Olympia WA | 83 | 3.20 | 0.34 | 34.4 |
| Lansing MI | 84 | 3.21 | 2.86 | 34.6 |
| Boise ID | 84 | 3.25 | 1.32 | 34.6 |
| Columbia SC | 83 | 3.42 | -3.35 | 34.4 |
| Austin TX | 83 | 3.43 | 2.57 | 34.4 |
| Hartford CT | 84 | 3.48 | 2.69 | 34.6 |
| Providence RI | 83 | 3.48 | 3.36 | 34.4 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 83 | 3.67 | 2.49 | 34.4 |
| Augusta ME | 84 | 3.71 | 1.57 | 34.6 |
| Boston MA | 84 | 3.79 | 3.24 | 34.6 |
| Phoenix AZ | 84 | 4.17 | 2.95 | 34.6 |
| Lincoln NE | 84 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 34.6 |
| Concord NH | 84 | 4.83 | 4.21 | 34.6 |
| Montpelier VT | 83 | 4.95 | 2.13 | 34.4 |
| Albany NY | 84 | 4.98 | 4.05 | 34.6 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 78.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 93.0°F | 86.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 87.0°F | 79.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 91.0°F | 82.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |