Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.55 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.66 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 1.70 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.71 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 1.84 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 1.91 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 1.93 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.01 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 2.01 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.05 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.09 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.14 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.19 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.22 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.26 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.29 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.30 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.31 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.35 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.35 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.36 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.39 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.41 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.45 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.45 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.53 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.57 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.57 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.62 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.66 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.70 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.75 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.76 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.77 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.82 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.89 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.91 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.92 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.93 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.93 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 2.93 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.01 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.12 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.64 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.67 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 3.71 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.73 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.74 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.83 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 4.70 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 45.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |