Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
24083
1156032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.50°
8800 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-03 07:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 176 1.43 -0.39 48.0
Honolulu HI 176 1.65 -1.40 48.0
Salem OR 176 1.68 0.76 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 176 1.85 1.19 48.0
Raleigh NC 176 1.95 0.06 48.0
Providence RI 176 2.01 -0.61 48.0
Boston MA 176 2.04 0.44 48.0
Trenton NJ 176 2.11 -1.22 48.0
Charleston WV 176 2.11 1.49 48.0
Little Rock AR 176 2.13 -0.64 48.0
Nashville TN 176 2.17 0.61 48.0
Sacramento CA 176 2.21 2.04 48.0
Carson City NV 176 2.23 1.45 48.0
Lansing MI 176 2.24 0.67 48.0
Saint Paul MN 176 2.24 0.14 48.0
Jefferson City MO 176 2.27 1.27 48.0
Jackson MS 176 2.29 0.94 48.0
Annapolis MD 176 2.30 0.72 48.0
Augusta ME 176 2.32 -1.85 48.0
Helena MT 176 2.32 -0.30 48.0
Harrisburg PA 176 2.34 -0.44 48.0
Columbus OH 176 2.39 0.40 48.0
Austin TX 176 2.39 2.35 48.0
Atlanta GA 176 2.42 0.44 48.0
Hartford CT 176 2.45 -1.63 48.0
Topeka KS 176 2.49 1.20 48.0
Lincoln NE 176 2.49 1.45 48.0
Des Moines IA 176 2.50 -0.01 48.0
Juneau AK 176 2.51 1.01 48.0
Dover DE 176 2.51 -0.81 48.0
Phoenix AZ 176 2.52 -1.24 48.0
Indianapolis IN 176 2.55 1.00 48.0
Montpelier VT 176 2.62 1.41 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 176 2.64 1.51 48.0
Pierre SD 176 2.69 1.27 48.0
Albany NY 176 2.77 -0.53 48.0
Madison WI 176 2.79 1.31 48.0
Olympia WA 176 2.85 -1.06 48.0
Springfield IL 176 2.87 2.27 48.0
Montgomery AL 176 2.94 -1.09 48.0
Bismarck ND 176 3.02 0.45 48.0
Boise ID 176 3.05 0.01 48.0
Tallahassee FL 176 3.06 0.50 48.0
Columbia SC 176 3.06 0.33 48.0
Denver CO 176 3.10 1.36 48.0
Frankfort KY 176 3.14 2.48 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 176 3.29 1.01 48.0
Cheyenne WY 176 3.33 0.50 48.0
Concord NH 176 3.38 -1.99 48.0
Santa Fe NM 176 3.49 -1.88 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 23:00 AKDT Juneau AK 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 00:00 MST Phoenix AZ 100.0°F 104.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 00:00 PDT Sacramento CA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 01:00 MDT Denver CO 80.0°F 85.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Hartford CT 70.0°F 76.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 21:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 01:00 MDT Boise ID 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Springfield IL 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Des Moines IA 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Topeka KS 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Frankfort KY 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Augusta ME 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Jackson MS 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 01:00 MDT Helena MT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Lincoln NE 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 00:00 PDT Carson City NV 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Concord NH 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 01:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Raleigh NC 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Bismarck ND 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Columbus OH 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 00:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 76.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 EDT Columbia SC 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0