Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.28 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.31 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 1.56 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 1.67 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 1.71 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.76 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 1.78 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.81 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.94 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.97 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.03 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.09 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.21 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.26 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.28 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.35 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.44 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.44 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.51 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.53 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.54 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.57 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.57 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.58 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.59 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.65 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.67 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.69 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.71 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.73 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.79 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.85 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.86 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.88 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.91 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.93 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.96 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.98 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 3.00 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.06 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.07 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.11 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.27 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.28 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 3.38 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.54 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.64 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 3.65 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 4.21 | -3.55 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 4.23 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 101.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 93.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 78.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 79.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 102.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |