Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.12 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.31 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 1.45 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 1.55 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.70 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 1.84 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 1.88 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 1.93 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.95 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.00 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.02 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.20 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.21 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.22 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.29 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.37 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.40 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.42 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.45 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.49 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.55 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.55 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.60 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.62 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.63 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.65 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.70 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.71 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.74 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.76 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.78 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.80 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.82 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.83 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.84 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.90 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.95 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.96 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.03 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.08 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 3.26 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 3.26 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.32 | -3.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.32 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.33 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.47 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 3.72 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.90 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 4.40 | -4.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 107.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 72.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 73.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |