Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.13 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.37 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.43 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.73 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.83 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.01 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.04 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.10 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.10 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.14 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.15 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.18 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.18 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.27 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.29 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.32 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.32 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.34 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.35 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.38 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.38 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.39 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.43 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.45 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.53 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.65 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.65 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.66 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.70 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.72 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.78 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.78 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.90 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.98 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.98 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.99 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.04 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 3.13 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 3.18 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.34 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 3.35 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.35 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.50 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.51 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.58 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.59 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.77 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.91 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 4.00 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 4.10 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 35.0°F | 32.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 72.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 41.0°F | 51.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 30.0°F | 36.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 44.0°F | 55.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 38.0°F | 42.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 34.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 30.0°F | 27.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 57.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 35.0°F | 35.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |