Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.27 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.51 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.77 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.82 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.04 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.09 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.22 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.27 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.28 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.33 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.33 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.33 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.35 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.37 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.41 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.42 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.48 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.52 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.54 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.54 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.55 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.57 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.57 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.57 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.67 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.72 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.73 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.75 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.76 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.83 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.87 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.91 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.92 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.92 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 2.94 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.96 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 3.01 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 3.02 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.09 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.11 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.44 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.45 | 3.37 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 3.59 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.62 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 3.82 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 4.00 | 3.74 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 4.09 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 4.52 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 4.94 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 5.54 | 4.14 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 51.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 34.0°F | 33.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 50.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 37.0°F | 40.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 35.0°F | 39.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 34.0°F | 41.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 31.0°F | 30.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 36.0°F | 38.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 44.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 30.0°F | 29.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 38.0°F | 38.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 39.0°F | 36.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 31.0°F | 31.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 38.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |