Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.36 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.52 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.67 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.73 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 1.83 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 1.83 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.87 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.89 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 1.92 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 1.92 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 1.98 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.12 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.15 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.16 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.20 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.24 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.25 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.27 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.34 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.37 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.40 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.40 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.41 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.44 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.45 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.45 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.47 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.48 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.51 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.51 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.59 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.63 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.65 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.67 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.70 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.94 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.94 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.05 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 3.08 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 3.10 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.16 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 3.24 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.37 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.45 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.85 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.91 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.98 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 4.06 | 3.38 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 4.16 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 4.81 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 74.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 63.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 35.0°F | 37.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 38.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 33.0°F | 33.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |