Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.13 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.18 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 1.51 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 1.53 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.78 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 1.84 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 1.85 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.88 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.88 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.07 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.09 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.13 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.15 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.16 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.27 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.32 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.36 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.41 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.48 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.49 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.53 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.53 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.61 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.63 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.67 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.69 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.69 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.70 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.70 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.72 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.74 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.76 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.78 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.78 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.82 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.85 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.94 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.01 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.09 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.10 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.10 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.12 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.14 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.18 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 3.21 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.27 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.49 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.68 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 4.16 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 4.21 | -3.49 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 101.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |