Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.47 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.50 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 1.74 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 1.74 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.87 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 1.89 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.97 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.99 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.09 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.15 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.16 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.19 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.20 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.23 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.27 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.33 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.37 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.40 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.46 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.49 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.50 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.51 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.51 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.61 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.65 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.67 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.68 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.68 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.74 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.74 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.81 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.82 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.95 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 3.02 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 3.04 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.05 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 3.11 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 3.15 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 3.20 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.25 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.27 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.27 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.28 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.41 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.50 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.62 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 3.83 | 3.20 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.88 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 4.12 | 3.39 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 4.63 | 3.60 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 110.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 72.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 72.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 90.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 74.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |