Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.36 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.83 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.86 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 1.88 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.95 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.19 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.40 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.46 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.50 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.51 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.52 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.53 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.54 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.59 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.62 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.63 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.65 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.66 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.66 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.69 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.70 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.72 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.72 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.78 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.80 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.82 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.96 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 3.00 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.11 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.11 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.14 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.15 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.18 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.25 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 3.27 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 3.27 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.30 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.33 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.34 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.45 | -2.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.57 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.72 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 3.77 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 3.82 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.82 | 3.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 3.92 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.94 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 4.04 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 4.41 | 3.67 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 5.31 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 65.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 71.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 54.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 45.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 57.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 47.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |