Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.61 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.69 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.75 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.77 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.80 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 1.92 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.96 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 1.96 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 1.97 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.01 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.09 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.17 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.21 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.22 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.22 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.24 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.32 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.35 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.37 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.41 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.44 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.44 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.49 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.50 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.54 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.56 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.58 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.59 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.62 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.71 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.76 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.78 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.82 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.83 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.85 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.86 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.88 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.92 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.95 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.08 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.11 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 3.15 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.21 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.34 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.37 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.51 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.53 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.60 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.69 | 3.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 4.95 | 4.26 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 103.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 85.0°F | 73.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |