Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 102 | 1.23 | -0.19 | 36.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 102 | 1.27 | 0.08 | 36.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 102 | 1.30 | -0.05 | 36.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 102 | 1.53 | -0.12 | 36.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 101 | 1.58 | 0.30 | 36.8 |
| Columbus OH | 101 | 1.70 | 1.13 | 36.8 |
| Little Rock AR | 102 | 1.73 | -0.37 | 36.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 102 | 1.80 | 0.71 | 36.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 102 | 1.83 | 0.32 | 36.9 |
| Juneau AK | 102 | 1.84 | 0.63 | 36.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 102 | 1.85 | -0.13 | 36.9 |
| Madison WI | 101 | 1.91 | 0.33 | 36.8 |
| Des Moines IA | 102 | 1.95 | 0.99 | 36.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 102 | 2.03 | -0.85 | 36.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 102 | 2.06 | 0.27 | 36.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 102 | 2.07 | 0.99 | 36.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 102 | 2.09 | 0.89 | 36.9 |
| Nashville TN | 101 | 2.24 | 0.20 | 36.8 |
| Springfield IL | 102 | 2.29 | 1.90 | 36.9 |
| Richmond VA | 101 | 2.33 | 1.99 | 36.8 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 101 | 2.48 | -0.16 | 36.8 |
| Atlanta GA | 102 | 2.54 | -0.56 | 36.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 102 | 2.58 | 2.21 | 36.9 |
| Salem OR | 101 | 2.65 | 2.12 | 36.8 |
| Harrisburg PA | 101 | 2.72 | 2.05 | 36.8 |
| Charleston WV | 101 | 2.73 | 2.18 | 36.8 |
| Pierre SD | 101 | 2.80 | 2.76 | 36.8 |
| Topeka KS | 102 | 2.84 | 2.76 | 36.9 |
| Carson City NV | 102 | 2.87 | 1.85 | 36.9 |
| Lansing MI | 102 | 2.91 | 2.48 | 36.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 102 | 2.92 | 2.43 | 36.9 |
| Denver CO | 102 | 2.98 | 2.39 | 36.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 102 | 2.99 | 2.66 | 36.9 |
| Austin TX | 101 | 3.04 | 1.93 | 36.8 |
| Boise ID | 102 | 3.12 | 1.47 | 36.9 |
| Hartford CT | 102 | 3.14 | 2.33 | 36.9 |
| Providence RI | 101 | 3.18 | 2.86 | 36.8 |
| Columbia SC | 101 | 3.20 | -2.78 | 36.8 |
| Dover DE | 102 | 3.21 | 1.46 | 36.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 102 | 3.21 | -0.75 | 36.9 |
| Augusta ME | 102 | 3.33 | 1.16 | 36.9 |
| Olympia WA | 101 | 3.33 | 0.97 | 36.8 |
| Boston MA | 102 | 3.41 | 2.82 | 36.9 |
| Helena MT | 102 | 3.84 | 2.98 | 36.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 101 | 3.94 | 2.97 | 36.8 |
| Phoenix AZ | 102 | 4.07 | 2.44 | 36.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 102 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 36.9 |
| Concord NH | 102 | 4.33 | 3.61 | 36.9 |
| Albany NY | 102 | 4.36 | 3.56 | 36.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 101 | 4.47 | 2.03 | 36.8 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |