Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.35 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.46 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.66 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.70 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.80 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.82 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 1.83 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.87 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 1.90 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 1.96 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.03 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.08 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.09 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.20 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.21 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.24 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.29 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.31 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.35 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.38 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.43 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.45 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.48 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.49 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.53 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.53 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.55 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.56 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.59 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.61 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.63 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.64 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.75 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.76 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.81 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.82 | -2.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.86 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.90 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.05 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.16 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.31 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 3.32 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 3.36 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.39 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.74 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.85 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 4.04 | 3.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 4.05 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 4.22 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 4.95 | 3.71 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 40.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 42.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |