Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
15433
740832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
8550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-27 02:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Providence RI 171 1.47 -0.10 48.0
Honolulu HI 171 1.51 -0.94 48.0
Augusta ME 171 1.61 -0.39 48.0
Hartford CT 171 1.80 0.07 48.0
Little Rock AR 171 1.87 -0.27 48.0
Jackson MS 171 1.92 1.18 48.0
Trenton NJ 171 1.94 0.23 48.0
Tallahassee FL 171 1.96 -0.06 48.0
Austin TX 171 1.96 1.35 48.0
Concord NH 171 2.01 0.59 48.0
Charleston WV 171 2.01 -0.50 48.0
Atlanta GA 171 2.04 0.48 48.0
Albany NY 171 2.05 0.59 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 171 2.15 1.62 48.0
Columbus OH 171 2.19 1.16 48.0
Harrisburg PA 171 2.20 -0.25 48.0
Indianapolis IN 171 2.23 0.50 48.0
Lansing MI 171 2.28 1.01 48.0
Dover DE 171 2.34 0.61 48.0
Richmond VA 171 2.38 0.54 48.0
Boston MA 171 2.39 1.08 48.0
Helena MT 171 2.49 1.38 48.0
Jefferson City MO 171 2.52 0.77 48.0
Nashville TN 171 2.55 0.40 48.0
Annapolis MD 171 2.60 1.13 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 171 2.63 -1.72 48.0
Montgomery AL 171 2.64 1.13 48.0
Raleigh NC 171 2.65 0.86 48.0
Springfield IL 171 2.76 2.46 48.0
Topeka KS 171 2.82 0.87 48.0
Columbia SC 171 2.83 -1.94 48.0
Juneau AK 171 2.84 0.68 48.0
Carson City NV 171 2.87 1.03 48.0
Santa Fe NM 171 2.91 -0.87 48.0
Cheyenne WY 171 2.94 -0.21 48.0
Saint Paul MN 171 2.98 2.29 48.0
Des Moines IA 171 3.08 1.27 48.0
Madison WI 171 3.08 1.95 48.0
Sacramento CA 171 3.09 0.60 48.0
Salem OR 171 3.12 1.15 48.0
Montpelier VT 171 3.21 1.23 48.0
Olympia WA 171 3.28 -1.64 48.0
Boise ID 171 3.33 2.73 48.0
Frankfort KY 171 3.40 2.49 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 171 3.41 2.89 48.0
Denver CO 171 3.48 0.91 48.0
Phoenix AZ 171 3.50 -0.28 48.0
Lincoln NE 171 3.58 1.93 48.0
Bismarck ND 171 3.85 3.03 48.0
Pierre SD 171 4.49 3.64 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Montgomery AL 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 18:00 AKDT Juneau AK 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 19:00 MST Phoenix AZ 106.0°F 108.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Little Rock AR 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 19:00 PDT Sacramento CA 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 20:00 MDT Denver CO 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Hartford CT 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 16:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 20:00 MDT Boise ID 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Springfield IL 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Des Moines IA 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Topeka KS 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Frankfort KY 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Augusta ME 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Lansing MI 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Jackson MS 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 20:00 MDT Helena MT 86.0°F 89.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Lincoln NE 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 19:00 PDT Carson City NV 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 20:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Albany NY 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Raleigh NC 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Bismarck ND 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 21:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 94.0°F 91.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 19:00 PDT Salem OR 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 22:00 EDT Columbia SC 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0