Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.39 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.63 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 1.70 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 1.81 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.95 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 1.97 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.05 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.06 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.15 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.21 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.22 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.24 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.24 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.25 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.30 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.31 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.33 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.33 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.34 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.36 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.40 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.41 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.43 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.44 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.45 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.46 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.47 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.49 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.51 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.54 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.58 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.64 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.69 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.74 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.79 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.80 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.80 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.89 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.99 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.07 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 3.08 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.09 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 3.11 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 3.12 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 3.20 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.31 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.34 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.35 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.48 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 110.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |