Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.47 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.51 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 1.61 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 1.80 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.87 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.92 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.94 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 1.96 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.96 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.01 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.01 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.04 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.05 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.19 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.20 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.23 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.28 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.34 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.38 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.39 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.49 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.52 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.55 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.60 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.63 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.64 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.65 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.76 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.82 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.83 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.84 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.87 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.91 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.94 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.98 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 3.08 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 3.08 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 3.09 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 3.12 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.21 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.28 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.33 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 3.40 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.41 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.48 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.50 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.58 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.85 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 4.49 | 3.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 108.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |