Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
1530
73536 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.49°
1481 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-15 11:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 29 0.86 0.10 15.0
Raleigh NC 30 0.93 0.00 15.5
Baton Rouge LA 30 0.97 0.77 15.5
Tallahassee FL 30 1.10 0.30 15.5
Columbus OH 29 1.14 0.45 15.0
Juneau AK 30 1.17 0.70 15.5
Annapolis MD 30 1.23 -0.83 15.5
Honolulu HI 30 1.40 0.73 15.5
Jefferson City MO 30 1.43 0.43 15.5
Oklahoma City OK 29 1.45 -1.03 15.0
Nashville TN 29 1.45 -0.83 15.0
Indianapolis IN 30 1.50 0.10 15.5
Frankfort KY 30 1.50 0.17 15.5
Trenton NJ 30 1.53 0.73 15.5
Cheyenne WY 28 1.54 0.75 14.5
Jackson MS 30 1.70 -0.10 15.5
Harrisburg PA 29 1.79 0.55 15.0
Little Rock AR 30 1.87 -0.33 15.5
Lansing MI 30 1.87 1.27 15.5
Salt Lake City UT 29 1.90 0.93 15.0
Topeka KS 30 1.93 1.87 15.5
Salem OR 29 1.93 1.10 15.0
Sacramento CA 30 2.03 -1.63 15.5
Des Moines IA 30 2.03 0.50 15.5
Bismarck ND 30 2.03 2.03 15.5
Atlanta GA 30 2.23 -1.70 15.5
Madison WI 28 2.32 1.61 14.5
Montgomery AL 30 2.37 0.17 15.5
Springfield IL 30 2.37 2.03 15.5
Dover DE 30 2.43 -0.10 15.5
Charleston WV 28 2.46 2.46 14.5
Pierre SD 29 2.59 2.52 15.0
Santa Fe NM 30 2.67 -1.47 15.5
Hartford CT 30 2.77 1.10 15.5
Saint Paul MN 30 2.77 2.70 15.5
Lincoln NE 30 2.93 2.93 15.5
Austin TX 29 3.10 3.03 15.0
Columbia SC 29 3.24 -3.24 15.0
Olympia WA 29 3.45 0.28 15.0
Boston MA 30 3.47 3.13 15.5
Helena MT 30 3.50 2.90 15.5
Providence RI 29 3.52 3.38 15.0
Denver CO 30 3.60 3.60 15.5
Boise ID 30 3.93 3.00 15.5
Albany NY 30 4.73 2.20 15.5
Phoenix AZ 30 4.97 3.63 15.5
Augusta ME 30 5.00 3.00 15.5
Concord NH 30 5.07 3.67 15.5
Montpelier VT 29 5.17 2.34 15.0
Carson City NV 30 5.53 4.87 15.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Montgomery AL 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 04:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 05:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Little Rock AR 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 05:00 PDT Sacramento CA 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 06:00 MDT Denver CO 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Hartford CT 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 02:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 06:00 MDT Boise ID 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Springfield IL 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Des Moines IA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Topeka KS 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Augusta ME 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Boston MA 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Lansing MI 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Jackson MS 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 06:00 MDT Helena MT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Lincoln NE 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 05:00 PDT Carson City NV 62.0°F 54.0°F +8.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Concord NH 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Trenton NJ 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 06:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Albany NY 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Raleigh NC 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Bismarck ND 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Columbus OH 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 05:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Providence RI 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT Columbia SC 73.0°F 80.0°F -7.0° 29.0