Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
25383
1218432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.47°
8900 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-04 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 178 1.45 -0.73 48.0
Salem OR 178 1.63 0.73 48.0
Honolulu HI 178 1.67 -1.47 48.0
Nashville TN 178 1.81 0.09 48.0
Lansing MI 178 1.90 0.37 48.0
Charleston WV 178 2.02 1.42 48.0
Little Rock AR 178 2.03 -0.46 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 178 2.08 1.47 48.0
Raleigh NC 178 2.08 -0.51 48.0
Columbus OH 178 2.11 -0.07 48.0
Boston MA 178 2.17 0.17 48.0
Sacramento CA 178 2.19 1.69 48.0
Jefferson City MO 178 2.20 1.30 48.0
Trenton NJ 178 2.20 -1.12 48.0
Providence RI 178 2.28 -0.67 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 178 2.30 1.09 48.0
Austin TX 178 2.31 2.22 48.0
Saint Paul MN 178 2.32 0.01 48.0
Augusta ME 178 2.33 -1.52 48.0
Atlanta GA 178 2.35 0.51 48.0
Topeka KS 178 2.35 1.20 48.0
Dover DE 178 2.37 -1.04 48.0
Jackson MS 178 2.37 1.16 48.0
Annapolis MD 178 2.38 0.46 48.0
Indianapolis IN 178 2.39 0.24 48.0
Carson City NV 178 2.43 1.67 48.0
Des Moines IA 178 2.47 -0.19 48.0
Harrisburg PA 178 2.47 -0.45 48.0
Juneau AK 178 2.51 0.96 48.0
Helena MT 178 2.51 0.11 48.0
Montpelier VT 178 2.53 1.02 48.0
Frankfort KY 178 2.58 1.91 48.0
Springfield IL 178 2.65 2.13 48.0
Lincoln NE 178 2.65 1.76 48.0
Madison WI 178 2.68 1.34 48.0
Hartford CT 178 2.75 -1.70 48.0
Phoenix AZ 178 2.78 -1.34 48.0
Columbia SC 178 2.81 0.34 48.0
Boise ID 178 2.85 -0.31 48.0
Albany NY 178 2.88 -0.33 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 178 2.89 1.63 48.0
Olympia WA 178 2.92 -0.61 48.0
Cheyenne WY 178 2.94 0.28 48.0
Montgomery AL 178 2.95 -1.01 48.0
Denver CO 178 2.96 1.28 48.0
Pierre SD 178 3.05 1.62 48.0
Tallahassee FL 178 3.10 0.29 48.0
Santa Fe NM 178 3.22 -1.33 48.0
Bismarck ND 178 3.31 0.62 48.0
Concord NH 178 3.38 -2.13 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 57.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 03:00 MDT Denver CO 69.0°F 62.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 61.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 03:00 MDT Boise ID 62.0°F 58.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 03:00 MDT Helena MT 52.0°F 48.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Concord NH 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 56.0°F 51.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 02:00 PDT Salem OR 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 66.0°F 62.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Providence RI 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-04 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0