Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 125 | 1.14 | -0.06 | 39.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 125 | 1.32 | 0.31 | 39.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 125 | 1.56 | 0.20 | 39.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 125 | 1.62 | -0.46 | 39.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 124 | 1.66 | 0.48 | 38.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 125 | 1.67 | 0.47 | 39.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 125 | 1.68 | -0.58 | 39.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 125 | 1.74 | -0.03 | 39.0 |
| Madison WI | 124 | 1.81 | 0.52 | 38.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 125 | 1.90 | 1.08 | 39.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 125 | 1.94 | 0.96 | 39.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 125 | 1.97 | -0.61 | 39.0 |
| Juneau AK | 125 | 1.98 | 0.06 | 39.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 125 | 1.98 | 0.06 | 39.0 |
| Columbus OH | 124 | 2.06 | 1.44 | 38.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 125 | 2.07 | 0.46 | 39.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 125 | 2.22 | 0.88 | 39.0 |
| Nashville TN | 124 | 2.23 | 0.11 | 38.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 125 | 2.28 | 1.98 | 39.0 |
| Springfield IL | 125 | 2.34 | 1.96 | 39.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 125 | 2.42 | -0.17 | 39.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 124 | 2.44 | -0.27 | 38.9 |
| Richmond VA | 124 | 2.45 | 1.95 | 38.9 |
| Salem OR | 124 | 2.49 | 1.98 | 38.9 |
| Austin TX | 124 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 38.9 |
| Carson City NV | 125 | 2.78 | 1.18 | 39.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 125 | 2.78 | 2.36 | 39.0 |
| Lansing MI | 125 | 2.80 | 2.27 | 39.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 125 | 2.82 | 2.35 | 39.0 |
| Charleston WV | 124 | 2.83 | 1.99 | 38.9 |
| Boise ID | 125 | 2.84 | 1.46 | 39.0 |
| Denver CO | 125 | 2.92 | 2.33 | 39.0 |
| Topeka KS | 125 | 2.95 | 2.89 | 39.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 125 | 3.02 | -0.66 | 39.0 |
| Columbia SC | 124 | 3.12 | -2.70 | 38.9 |
| Hartford CT | 125 | 3.15 | 2.30 | 39.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 124 | 3.22 | 2.67 | 38.9 |
| Olympia WA | 124 | 3.22 | 1.30 | 38.9 |
| Pierre SD | 124 | 3.31 | 3.27 | 38.9 |
| Providence RI | 124 | 3.44 | 2.97 | 38.9 |
| Dover DE | 125 | 3.50 | 1.10 | 39.0 |
| Boston MA | 125 | 3.66 | 2.94 | 39.0 |
| Augusta ME | 125 | 3.69 | 1.80 | 39.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 124 | 3.71 | 2.90 | 38.9 |
| Helena MT | 125 | 3.78 | 3.01 | 39.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 125 | 3.82 | 3.79 | 39.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 125 | 4.00 | 2.37 | 39.0 |
| Concord NH | 125 | 4.39 | 3.56 | 39.0 |
| Albany NY | 125 | 4.46 | 3.78 | 39.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 124 | 4.60 | 2.45 | 38.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |