Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.13 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.26 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 1.48 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 1.54 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.66 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 1.81 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 1.86 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.87 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 1.96 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.97 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.08 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.12 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.15 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.20 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.26 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.34 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.35 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.37 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.40 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.46 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.57 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.57 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.58 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.61 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.62 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.62 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.66 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.66 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.66 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.67 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.70 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.70 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.76 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.79 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.79 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.82 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.90 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.01 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.03 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.10 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 3.12 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.18 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 3.19 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.25 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 3.27 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.45 | -3.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.47 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 3.58 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.86 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 4.22 | -3.91 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 52.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |