Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.15 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.49 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 1.72 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 1.72 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.76 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 1.82 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.93 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 1.99 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.05 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.07 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.09 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.10 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.11 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.14 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.19 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.20 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.23 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.23 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.34 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.35 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.42 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.43 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.44 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.46 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.46 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.49 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.58 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.59 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.61 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.78 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.80 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.81 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.93 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.02 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.03 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 3.05 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.07 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.10 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.15 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.18 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.21 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.24 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.28 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.29 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.51 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.54 | 3.40 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.62 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.76 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.79 | -3.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 100.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 98.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 94.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 81.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 72.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 80.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 96.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 78.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |