Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.17 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.23 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 1.38 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 1.59 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.74 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 1.78 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.87 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.91 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 1.91 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 1.99 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.13 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.14 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.19 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.23 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.27 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.40 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.41 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.43 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.47 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.51 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.59 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.59 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.60 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.63 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.65 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.66 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.67 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.68 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.69 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.70 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.76 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.76 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.81 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.82 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.85 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.89 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.93 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 3.05 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.13 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.18 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.18 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.19 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.21 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 3.26 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 3.28 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.38 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.41 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 3.90 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 4.26 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 4.44 | -3.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 77.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |