Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
17303
830592 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.68°
9220 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-28 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 185 1.44 -0.94 48.0
Providence RI 184 1.61 -0.03 48.0
Little Rock AR 185 1.79 -0.10 48.0
Augusta ME 184 1.79 -0.58 48.0
Hartford CT 185 1.86 0.05 48.0
Trenton NJ 184 1.89 -0.07 48.0
Jackson MS 184 1.91 0.99 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 2.05 1.56 48.0
Austin TX 184 2.09 1.59 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.10 0.36 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.18 1.38 48.0
Concord NH 184 2.18 0.47 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 2.23 0.05 48.0
Albany NY 184 2.23 -0.08 48.0
Harrisburg PA 184 2.24 -0.76 48.0
Charleston WV 184 2.24 -0.08 48.0
Richmond VA 184 2.33 0.36 48.0
Helena MT 184 2.35 0.77 48.0
Jefferson City MO 184 2.37 0.37 48.0
Lansing MI 184 2.41 0.95 48.0
Dover DE 185 2.45 0.34 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 2.45 0.71 48.0
Raleigh NC 184 2.49 0.96 48.0
Columbus OH 184 2.60 1.68 48.0
Springfield IL 185 2.62 2.15 48.0
Nashville TN 184 2.63 0.48 48.0
Carson City NV 184 2.66 1.45 48.0
Juneau AK 185 2.71 0.69 48.0
Montgomery AL 185 2.72 1.19 48.0
Indianapolis IN 185 2.75 1.35 48.0
Columbia SC 184 2.83 -0.89 48.0
Santa Fe NM 184 2.84 -0.82 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 184 2.89 -1.41 48.0
Saint Paul MN 184 2.97 1.77 48.0
Madison WI 184 2.98 1.16 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 3.02 1.37 48.0
Topeka KS 185 3.02 0.98 48.0
Salem OR 184 3.09 1.47 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 3.14 0.78 48.0
Cheyenne WY 184 3.14 -0.10 48.0
Olympia WA 184 3.16 -1.57 48.0
Montpelier VT 184 3.18 1.66 48.0
Boise ID 185 3.37 2.85 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 3.39 -0.07 48.0
Lincoln NE 184 3.40 1.68 48.0
Denver CO 185 3.77 1.19 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 184 3.86 3.36 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 3.97 3.36 48.0
Bismarck ND 184 4.03 3.35 48.0
Pierre SD 184 4.66 3.71 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-28 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 90.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 94.0°F 94.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 10:00 MDT Denver CO 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 EDT Dover DE 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 94.0°F 88.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 10:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 87.0°F 79.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 12:00 EDT Boston MA 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 91.0°F 86.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 94.0°F 85.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 09:00 MDT Denver CO 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 EDT Dover DE 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 92.0°F 83.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 09:00 MDT Boise ID 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 86.0°F 79.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0