Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.31 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.73 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 1.91 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.91 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 1.99 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.27 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.33 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.37 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.41 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.42 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.45 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.46 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.51 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.51 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.56 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.59 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.60 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.62 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.69 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.70 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.72 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.72 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.73 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.80 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.83 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.87 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.91 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.95 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.04 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.09 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.14 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.16 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.18 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.21 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 3.22 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.24 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.26 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 3.27 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.33 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.42 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.50 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 3.67 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.68 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.70 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.71 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 3.73 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 3.80 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.88 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 4.37 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 4.67 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 52.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 62.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 40.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 35.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 54.0°F | +18.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 49.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |