Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.12 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.28 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 1.48 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 1.56 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.67 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 1.86 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 1.86 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.91 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.97 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 1.98 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.02 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.18 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.19 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.20 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.26 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.36 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.38 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.39 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.40 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.47 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.57 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.57 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.60 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.61 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.62 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.64 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.67 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.68 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.70 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.70 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.72 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.75 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.76 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.80 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.82 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 2.82 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.82 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.94 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.99 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.04 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 3.19 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.20 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.26 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.30 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.30 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.36 | -3.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.49 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 3.65 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.94 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 4.33 | -4.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 98.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |