Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.44 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.65 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 1.77 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 1.85 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 1.89 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.99 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.03 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.09 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.10 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.13 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.16 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.16 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.18 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.20 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.28 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.28 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.29 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.32 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.32 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.33 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.34 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.35 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.36 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.37 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.40 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.46 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.47 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.48 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.49 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.53 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.56 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.56 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.63 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.64 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.73 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.74 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.76 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.78 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.84 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.85 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.90 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.91 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 3.03 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.06 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.06 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.15 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.17 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.24 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.33 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.41 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 55.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |