Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.26 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.36 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.45 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.69 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.82 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 1.98 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.02 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.08 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.10 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.14 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.18 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.19 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.22 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.29 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.32 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.33 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.35 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.37 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.38 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.40 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.43 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.44 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.45 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.45 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.48 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.60 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.61 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.61 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.65 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.70 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.75 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.76 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.87 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.98 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 3.01 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 3.05 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 3.07 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 3.10 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.14 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 3.27 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.31 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.31 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.52 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.56 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.56 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 3.65 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.85 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.93 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.96 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 4.09 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 34.0°F | 27.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 32.0°F | 33.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 29.0°F | 30.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 43.0°F | 49.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 36.0°F | 40.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 27.0°F | 26.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 30.0°F | 30.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 28.0°F | 26.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 36.0°F | 35.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 54.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 30.0°F | 30.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 39.0°F | 36.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |