Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 23 | 0.74 | -0.39 | 12.0 |
| Richmond VA | 22 | 0.82 | 0.27 | 11.5 |
| Columbus OH | 22 | 0.91 | 0.09 | 11.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 23 | 1.04 | 0.87 | 12.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 23 | 1.17 | 0.30 | 12.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 23 | 1.17 | -0.65 | 12.0 |
| Juneau AK | 23 | 1.22 | 0.61 | 12.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 23 | 1.26 | 0.22 | 12.0 |
| Nashville TN | 22 | 1.50 | -0.68 | 11.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 22 | 1.55 | 0.82 | 11.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 22 | 1.59 | -1.05 | 11.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 23 | 1.65 | 0.43 | 12.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 23 | 1.65 | 0.52 | 12.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 23 | 1.74 | 0.43 | 12.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 23 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 12.0 |
| Jackson MS | 23 | 1.87 | 0.22 | 12.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 23 | 1.87 | 1.09 | 12.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 22 | 1.91 | 1.18 | 11.5 |
| Charleston WV | 22 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 11.5 |
| Madison WI | 22 | 1.95 | 1.05 | 11.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 23 | 1.96 | -0.04 | 12.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 23 | 2.00 | -1.83 | 12.0 |
| Pierre SD | 22 | 2.00 | 1.91 | 11.5 |
| Topeka KS | 23 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 12.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 22 | 2.09 | 1.55 | 11.5 |
| Lansing MI | 23 | 2.17 | 1.91 | 12.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 23 | 2.22 | 1.00 | 12.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 23 | 2.26 | -1.57 | 12.0 |
| Salem OR | 22 | 2.27 | 1.55 | 11.5 |
| Springfield IL | 23 | 2.35 | 1.91 | 12.0 |
| Columbia SC | 22 | 2.73 | -2.73 | 11.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 23 | 2.74 | 0.57 | 12.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 23 | 2.74 | 2.65 | 12.0 |
| Dover DE | 23 | 2.78 | 0.17 | 12.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 23 | 2.78 | -1.22 | 12.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 23 | 2.87 | 2.87 | 12.0 |
| Hartford CT | 23 | 2.96 | 2.00 | 12.0 |
| Providence RI | 22 | 3.32 | 3.14 | 11.5 |
| Helena MT | 23 | 3.70 | 2.91 | 12.0 |
| Boston MA | 23 | 3.74 | 3.57 | 12.0 |
| Austin TX | 22 | 3.82 | 3.82 | 11.5 |
| Denver CO | 23 | 3.91 | 3.91 | 12.0 |
| Olympia WA | 22 | 4.18 | 0.00 | 11.5 |
| Boise ID | 23 | 4.26 | 3.13 | 12.0 |
| Carson City NV | 23 | 4.30 | 3.43 | 12.0 |
| Albany NY | 23 | 5.13 | 3.91 | 12.0 |
| Augusta ME | 23 | 5.35 | 5.09 | 12.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 22 | 5.59 | 4.32 | 11.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 23 | 5.87 | 5.35 | 12.0 |
| Concord NH | 23 | 5.96 | 4.65 | 12.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 102.0°F | -3.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 64.0°F | +12.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 22.0 |