Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.59 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.65 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 1.75 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.82 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.83 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 1.88 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 1.97 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 1.98 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.05 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.06 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.07 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.11 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.13 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.14 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.17 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.25 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.29 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.30 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.32 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.36 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.38 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.43 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.43 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.45 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.46 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.55 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.56 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.60 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.64 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.64 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.65 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.76 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.77 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.77 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.78 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.81 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.87 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.90 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.93 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.94 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.97 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.99 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.21 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.26 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 3.41 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 3.45 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.59 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.71 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 4.12 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 09:00 MST | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 09:00 MST | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 09:00 MST | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 29.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 PST | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 36.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 09:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 PST | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 70.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 EST | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |