Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.49 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.57 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.64 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.69 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.70 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.74 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.78 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.96 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.01 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.04 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.10 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.12 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.22 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.24 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.24 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.28 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.28 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.30 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.36 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.39 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.40 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.47 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.52 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.52 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.55 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.56 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.58 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.60 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.63 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.66 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.67 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.71 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.92 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.94 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.98 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.98 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.98 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 3.21 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 3.26 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.26 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.27 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 3.39 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.44 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.45 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.51 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.68 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 4.01 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 4.13 | 3.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 4.18 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 4.79 | 3.85 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 56.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |