Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.22 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.65 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.94 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.07 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.18 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.26 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.31 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.41 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.46 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.49 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.53 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.54 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.57 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.57 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.67 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.67 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.68 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.68 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.70 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.72 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.74 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.80 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.86 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.87 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.88 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.88 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.91 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.96 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.97 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.99 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.99 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 3.02 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 3.04 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.09 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 3.11 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.14 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 3.14 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.14 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.16 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 3.39 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.53 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 3.68 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 3.79 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 3.94 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.97 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 4.04 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 4.51 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 4.57 | 4.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 4.78 | 3.73 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 5.69 | 4.38 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 37.0°F | 43.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 38.0°F | 38.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 35.0°F | 35.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 42.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 33.0°F | 31.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 35.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 34.0°F | 32.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 43.0°F | 34.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 44.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 30.0°F | 31.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 37.0°F | 33.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |