Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.31 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.52 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.80 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.81 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 1.99 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.12 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.25 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.27 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.27 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.29 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.29 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.33 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.34 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.34 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.38 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.39 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.42 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.43 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.49 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.49 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.53 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.55 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.55 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.61 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.61 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.74 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.74 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.75 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.78 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.82 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.83 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.85 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.86 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.89 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.91 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.93 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.95 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.96 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.02 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.07 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.38 | 3.19 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.41 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.54 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.63 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 3.73 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.94 | 3.47 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 4.01 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 4.58 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 4.97 | 3.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 5.53 | 3.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 68.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 69.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 57.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |