Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
7633
366432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.64°
7584 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-20 14:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 152 1.18 0.20 40.6
Baton Rouge LA 152 1.27 0.34 40.6
Little Rock AR 152 1.69 -0.72 40.6
Raleigh NC 152 1.70 0.10 40.6
Honolulu HI 152 1.74 -0.78 40.6
Sacramento CA 152 1.84 -0.32 40.6
Indianapolis IN 152 1.84 -0.11 40.6
Madison WI 151 1.87 0.66 40.5
Jefferson City MO 152 1.96 0.84 40.6
Tallahassee FL 152 1.99 0.38 40.6
Columbus OH 151 2.02 1.46 40.5
Juneau AK 152 2.03 0.16 40.6
Des Moines IA 152 2.03 1.28 40.6
Frankfort KY 152 2.03 0.91 40.6
Cheyenne WY 151 2.17 0.93 40.5
Annapolis MD 152 2.22 1.05 40.6
Montgomery AL 152 2.24 0.12 40.6
Saint Paul MN 152 2.29 2.01 40.6
Atlanta GA 152 2.32 0.18 40.6
Austin TX 151 2.36 1.21 40.5
Salem OR 151 2.38 1.58 40.5
Nashville TN 151 2.39 0.26 40.5
Springfield IL 152 2.40 2.07 40.6
Richmond VA 151 2.44 1.64 40.5
Salt Lake City UT 151 2.48 -0.70 40.5
Charleston WV 151 2.58 1.68 40.5
Topeka KS 152 2.67 2.54 40.6
Bismarck ND 152 2.69 2.19 40.6
Trenton NJ 152 2.71 2.33 40.6
Carson City NV 152 2.80 0.61 40.6
Denver CO 152 2.81 2.01 40.6
Lansing MI 152 2.86 2.41 40.6
Hartford CT 152 2.89 1.86 40.6
Boise ID 152 3.00 1.83 40.6
Harrisburg PA 151 3.02 2.49 40.5
Olympia WA 151 3.03 1.12 40.5
Providence RI 151 3.05 2.36 40.5
Columbia SC 151 3.11 -2.76 40.5
Dover DE 152 3.24 1.20 40.6
Santa Fe NM 152 3.25 -1.25 40.6
Boston MA 152 3.35 2.26 40.6
Augusta ME 152 3.37 1.57 40.6
Helena MT 152 3.49 2.82 40.6
Pierre SD 151 3.63 3.54 40.5
Lincoln NE 152 3.64 3.59 40.6
Oklahoma City OK 151 3.66 3.00 40.5
Albany NY 152 3.86 3.22 40.6
Phoenix AZ 152 3.96 1.33 40.6
Concord NH 152 4.04 3.09 40.6
Montpelier VT 151 4.32 1.80 40.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Montgomery AL 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 06:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 47.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 07:00 MST Phoenix AZ 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 07:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 08:00 MDT Denver CO 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Hartford CT 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Dover DE 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Atlanta GA 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 04:00 HST Honolulu HI 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 08:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Springfield IL 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Des Moines IA 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Topeka KS 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Frankfort KY 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Lansing MI 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Jackson MS 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 08:00 MDT Helena MT 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Lincoln NE 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 07:00 PDT Carson City NV 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Concord NH 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Trenton NJ 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 08:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Albany NY 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Raleigh NC 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Bismarck ND 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Columbus OH 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 09:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 07:00 PDT Salem OR 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Providence RI 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 10:00 EDT Columbia SC 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0