Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.63 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.74 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 1.82 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 1.84 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 1.88 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.92 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 1.95 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 1.96 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.98 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.98 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.01 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.05 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.09 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.19 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.25 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.27 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.32 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.39 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.40 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.40 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.41 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.44 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.44 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.46 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.60 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.62 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.65 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.71 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.75 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.79 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.80 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.81 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.82 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.84 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.84 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.93 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.95 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.95 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.99 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 3.17 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.28 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 3.29 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.29 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.44 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.45 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 3.58 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.61 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.62 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.76 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 103.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 75.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 93.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 96.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 65.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 70.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 103.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |