Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.41 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 1.50 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.85 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.89 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.95 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 1.98 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.01 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.03 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.09 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.13 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.14 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.17 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.25 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.26 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.26 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.28 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.33 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.39 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.39 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.42 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.46 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.48 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.49 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.51 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.53 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.57 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 2.62 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.63 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.65 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.66 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.68 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.71 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.71 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.71 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.75 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.82 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.89 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.95 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.96 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.07 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 3.16 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.20 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 3.32 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.49 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.63 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.68 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 4.07 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 4.17 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 4.30 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 4.33 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 91.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |