Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.57 | 0.45 | 45.6 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.70 | -0.70 | 45.6 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.77 | -0.16 | 45.6 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.86 | 0.59 | 45.4 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.89 | -1.20 | 45.6 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 1.94 | 1.14 | 45.6 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 1.95 | 0.38 | 45.6 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.10 | 0.01 | 45.6 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.16 | 0.67 | 45.6 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.23 | 1.28 | 45.4 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.25 | 1.31 | 45.4 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.28 | 0.02 | 45.6 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.34 | 1.99 | 45.6 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.36 | -0.46 | 45.6 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.37 | 1.40 | 45.6 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.39 | 1.17 | 45.6 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.39 | 0.36 | 45.4 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.44 | 0.50 | 45.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.50 | 0.23 | 45.6 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.55 | 1.49 | 45.6 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.61 | 1.10 | 45.6 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.62 | 0.93 | 45.4 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.66 | 1.15 | 45.6 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.67 | 0.69 | 45.6 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.69 | 2.07 | 45.6 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.71 | 0.92 | 45.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.72 | 2.28 | 45.6 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.72 | 1.88 | 45.4 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.81 | 1.88 | 45.6 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.81 | 1.52 | 45.4 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.84 | 1.74 | 45.4 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.85 | 2.60 | 45.6 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.89 | 2.68 | 45.6 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.93 | 1.95 | 45.6 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.95 | -2.59 | 45.4 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.96 | -1.28 | 45.4 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.97 | 0.88 | 45.6 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.05 | 1.18 | 45.6 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.09 | 0.97 | 45.6 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 3.31 | 2.29 | 45.6 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.34 | 2.94 | 45.4 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 3.36 | 2.05 | 45.6 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.40 | -1.26 | 45.6 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.40 | -0.45 | 45.4 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.42 | 2.58 | 45.6 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.52 | 2.23 | 45.6 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.58 | 1.06 | 45.6 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.85 | 0.97 | 45.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 4.29 | 4.20 | 45.6 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 4.38 | 4.31 | 45.4 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 104.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 86.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 87.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 94.0°F | 83.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 92.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 65.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 93.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 96.0°F | 86.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |