Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.57 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.64 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.65 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 1.88 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 1.89 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 1.91 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.94 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.95 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 1.95 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 2.01 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.08 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.09 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.17 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.17 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.18 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.20 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.21 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.24 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.26 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.34 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.37 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.40 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.41 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.42 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.43 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.49 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.68 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.72 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.72 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.80 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.84 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.84 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.90 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.92 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.94 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.95 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.97 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.00 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.01 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.10 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 3.22 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.30 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.58 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.59 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.59 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.60 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.64 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.73 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.99 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 4.32 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 60.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 75.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |