Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.44 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.64 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 1.66 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 1.85 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.95 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.07 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.07 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.10 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.11 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.13 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.15 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.19 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.24 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.25 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.25 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.25 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.26 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.29 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.30 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.35 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.36 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.37 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.37 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.41 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.47 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.49 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.50 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.50 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.53 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.54 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.54 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.56 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 2.61 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.65 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.69 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.76 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.79 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.85 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.90 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.92 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.01 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 3.02 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 3.03 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 3.04 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.07 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 3.11 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.29 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.33 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.40 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.48 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 102.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 76.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 76.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |