Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.28 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.52 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.79 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.87 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.00 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.11 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.25 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.26 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.27 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.33 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.37 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.37 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.41 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.43 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.45 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.46 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.53 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.54 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.57 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.58 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.59 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.59 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.61 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.61 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.61 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.75 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.76 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.80 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.82 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.84 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.84 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.84 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.90 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.92 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.99 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.00 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 3.04 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.08 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 3.11 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.18 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.32 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.37 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.64 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.69 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 4.00 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 4.15 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 4.19 | 3.94 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 4.46 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 4.99 | 3.67 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 5.73 | 4.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 63.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 35.0°F | 31.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 42.0°F | 49.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |