Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.38 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.50 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 1.63 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.72 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 1.84 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 1.87 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.01 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.03 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.03 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.12 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.13 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.14 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.14 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.17 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.20 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.21 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.22 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.22 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.24 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.27 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.28 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.40 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.44 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.46 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.50 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.54 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.55 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.56 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.64 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.64 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.64 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.66 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.67 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 2.82 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.84 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.91 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.92 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.95 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.99 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 3.00 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.07 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.10 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.17 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.22 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.27 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 3.28 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.40 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.43 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.44 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 3.83 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 97.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 71.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |