Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.29 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.33 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 1.56 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 1.67 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 1.68 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.75 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 1.76 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.77 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 1.81 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.97 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.99 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.05 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.24 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.24 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.26 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.30 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.38 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.46 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.47 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.51 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.51 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.55 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.59 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.60 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.62 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.63 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.67 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.71 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.74 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.78 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.81 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.82 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.91 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.92 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.93 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.96 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.98 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.98 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 3.00 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.08 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.10 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.13 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.22 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.24 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.44 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.49 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.68 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.70 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.88 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 4.29 | -3.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 74.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |