Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
28483
1367232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.59°
9600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-06 23:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Lansing MI 192 1.87 -0.16 48.0
Honolulu HI 192 1.88 -1.58 48.0
Richmond VA 192 1.88 -0.81 48.0
Austin TX 192 1.89 1.65 48.0
Little Rock AR 192 1.90 -0.32 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 192 1.93 0.55 48.0
Nashville TN 192 2.02 0.46 48.0
Charleston WV 192 2.08 0.97 48.0
Topeka KS 192 2.13 0.91 48.0
Juneau AK 192 2.14 0.47 48.0
Columbus OH 192 2.19 -0.90 48.0
Trenton NJ 192 2.21 -0.79 48.0
Montpelier VT 192 2.23 0.99 48.0
Annapolis MD 192 2.24 0.04 48.0
Providence RI 192 2.24 -0.77 48.0
Augusta ME 192 2.26 -1.43 48.0
Indianapolis IN 192 2.31 -0.99 48.0
Raleigh NC 192 2.36 -1.68 48.0
Saint Paul MN 192 2.37 -0.16 48.0
Tallahassee FL 192 2.42 -0.46 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 192 2.42 1.82 48.0
Albany NY 192 2.42 -1.11 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 192 2.44 1.10 48.0
Madison WI 192 2.46 0.70 48.0
Frankfort KY 192 2.53 1.68 48.0
Dover DE 192 2.54 -1.51 48.0
Hartford CT 192 2.61 -1.52 48.0
Springfield IL 192 2.63 1.76 48.0
Atlanta GA 192 2.67 0.69 48.0
Sacramento CA 192 2.68 2.21 48.0
Boise ID 192 2.68 -0.83 48.0
Harrisburg PA 192 2.68 -0.49 48.0
Carson City NV 192 2.69 2.16 48.0
Jefferson City MO 192 2.70 1.90 48.0
Boston MA 192 2.74 -0.87 48.0
Columbia SC 192 2.74 0.70 48.0
Phoenix AZ 192 2.79 -0.98 48.0
Salem OR 192 2.89 2.11 48.0
Jackson MS 192 2.90 1.89 48.0
Montgomery AL 192 2.93 -1.28 48.0
Helena MT 192 2.94 0.42 48.0
Concord NH 192 3.15 -2.43 48.0
Des Moines IA 192 3.17 0.67 48.0
Santa Fe NM 192 3.28 -2.01 48.0
Pierre SD 192 3.33 1.40 48.0
Cheyenne WY 192 3.34 0.45 48.0
Olympia WA 192 3.38 0.99 48.0
Bismarck ND 192 3.40 0.23 48.0
Lincoln NE 192 3.69 2.71 48.0
Denver CO 192 4.12 2.48 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Montgomery AL 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 15:00 AKDT Juneau AK 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 16:00 MST Phoenix AZ 108.0°F 106.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Little Rock AR 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 16:00 PDT Sacramento CA 101.0°F 96.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 17:00 MDT Denver CO 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Hartford CT 83.0°F 87.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Dover DE 85.0°F 90.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 87.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 13:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 17:00 MDT Boise ID 99.0°F 98.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Springfield IL 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Des Moines IA 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Topeka KS 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Frankfort KY 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Augusta ME 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Annapolis MD 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Boston MA 85.0°F 79.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Lansing MI 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 84.0°F 74.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 17:00 MDT Helena MT 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Lincoln NE 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 16:00 PDT Carson City NV 98.0°F 97.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Concord NH 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Trenton NJ 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 17:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Albany NY 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Raleigh NC 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Bismarck ND 90.0°F 94.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Columbus OH 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 18:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 97.0°F 99.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 16:00 PDT Salem OR 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 84.0°F 75.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Providence RI 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 19:00 EDT Columbia SC 83.0°F 73.0°F +10.0° 48.0