Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.32 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 1.61 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 1.85 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.87 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 1.92 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 1.94 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 1.95 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 1.95 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.97 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.12 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.12 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.13 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.15 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.16 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.29 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.30 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.31 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.31 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.32 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.36 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.41 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.45 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.51 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.51 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.51 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.51 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.53 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.61 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.62 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.65 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.65 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.70 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.75 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.84 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.85 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.93 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.93 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.02 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 3.05 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 3.08 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.15 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 3.19 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.21 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.26 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 3.27 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.58 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.63 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 3.81 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.98 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 4.06 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 108.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 73.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 97.0°F | 93.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 65.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 98.0°F | 101.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 100.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 96.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |