Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.21 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.59 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.71 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.72 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 1.73 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.83 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.93 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 1.98 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.07 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.07 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.08 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.09 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.18 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.20 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.24 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.26 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.27 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.27 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.28 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.32 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.33 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.35 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.39 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.42 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.46 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.46 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.47 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.48 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.59 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.60 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.62 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.63 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.64 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.64 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.71 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.73 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.89 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.90 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.96 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.98 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.08 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 3.10 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 3.17 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.22 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.48 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.52 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.67 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.77 | 3.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.78 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.95 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |