Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 146 | 1.21 | 0.18 | 40.3 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 146 | 1.29 | 0.38 | 40.3 |
| Little Rock AR | 146 | 1.67 | -0.66 | 40.3 |
| Raleigh NC | 146 | 1.68 | 0.19 | 40.3 |
| Honolulu HI | 146 | 1.72 | -0.72 | 40.3 |
| Sacramento CA | 146 | 1.78 | -0.21 | 40.3 |
| Indianapolis IN | 146 | 1.87 | -0.08 | 40.3 |
| Juneau AK | 146 | 1.89 | -0.05 | 40.3 |
| Madison WI | 145 | 1.92 | 0.68 | 40.2 |
| Jefferson City MO | 146 | 1.95 | 0.79 | 40.3 |
| Tallahassee FL | 146 | 2.03 | 0.44 | 40.3 |
| Frankfort KY | 146 | 2.04 | 0.96 | 40.3 |
| Des Moines IA | 146 | 2.05 | 1.32 | 40.3 |
| Columbus OH | 145 | 2.06 | 1.50 | 40.2 |
| Cheyenne WY | 145 | 2.16 | 0.88 | 40.2 |
| Annapolis MD | 146 | 2.22 | 1.00 | 40.3 |
| Montgomery AL | 146 | 2.25 | 0.04 | 40.3 |
| Saint Paul MN | 146 | 2.29 | 2.01 | 40.3 |
| Salem OR | 145 | 2.35 | 1.77 | 40.2 |
| Atlanta GA | 146 | 2.36 | 0.14 | 40.3 |
| Springfield IL | 146 | 2.38 | 2.03 | 40.3 |
| Nashville TN | 145 | 2.41 | 0.19 | 40.2 |
| Austin TX | 145 | 2.41 | 1.24 | 40.2 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 145 | 2.48 | -0.61 | 40.2 |
| Richmond VA | 145 | 2.50 | 1.74 | 40.2 |
| Charleston WV | 145 | 2.58 | 1.64 | 40.2 |
| Trenton NJ | 146 | 2.65 | 2.25 | 40.3 |
| Bismarck ND | 146 | 2.71 | 2.19 | 40.3 |
| Topeka KS | 146 | 2.75 | 2.63 | 40.3 |
| Carson City NV | 146 | 2.76 | 0.79 | 40.3 |
| Denver CO | 146 | 2.82 | 2.13 | 40.3 |
| Lansing MI | 146 | 2.87 | 2.42 | 40.3 |
| Hartford CT | 146 | 2.94 | 1.94 | 40.3 |
| Olympia WA | 145 | 2.99 | 1.08 | 40.2 |
| Harrisburg PA | 145 | 3.07 | 2.53 | 40.2 |
| Boise ID | 146 | 3.09 | 1.91 | 40.3 |
| Providence RI | 145 | 3.09 | 2.54 | 40.2 |
| Columbia SC | 145 | 3.14 | -2.78 | 40.2 |
| Dover DE | 146 | 3.19 | 1.07 | 40.3 |
| Santa Fe NM | 146 | 3.22 | -1.15 | 40.3 |
| Boston MA | 146 | 3.42 | 2.41 | 40.3 |
| Augusta ME | 146 | 3.47 | 1.62 | 40.3 |
| Helena MT | 146 | 3.58 | 2.89 | 40.3 |
| Pierre SD | 145 | 3.62 | 3.52 | 40.2 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 145 | 3.64 | 2.95 | 40.2 |
| Lincoln NE | 146 | 3.65 | 3.60 | 40.3 |
| Phoenix AZ | 146 | 3.86 | 1.65 | 40.3 |
| Albany NY | 146 | 3.93 | 3.27 | 40.3 |
| Concord NH | 146 | 4.10 | 3.16 | 40.3 |
| Montpelier VT | 145 | 4.42 | 1.90 | 40.2 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 96.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |