Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
71883
3450432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-12 03:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 172 1.58 -0.33 48.0
Little Rock AR 172 1.65 0.27 48.0
Jefferson City MO 172 1.80 0.22 48.0
Lansing MI 172 1.81 0.82 48.0
Columbus OH 172 1.82 0.31 48.0
Albany NY 172 1.87 -0.81 48.0
Annapolis MD 172 1.88 -1.02 48.0
Honolulu HI 172 1.92 -1.19 48.0
Austin TX 172 1.92 0.20 48.0
Richmond VA 172 2.00 -0.03 48.0
Jackson MS 172 2.02 1.16 48.0
Sacramento CA 172 2.08 -0.05 48.0
Cheyenne WY 172 2.11 -0.09 48.0
Trenton NJ 172 2.23 -1.83 48.0
Hartford CT 172 2.25 -1.31 48.0
Nashville TN 172 2.29 -0.22 48.0
Charleston WV 172 2.30 1.69 48.0
Salem OR 172 2.31 -0.27 48.0
Columbia SC 172 2.34 0.07 48.0
Augusta ME 172 2.36 -0.41 48.0
Madison WI 172 2.37 0.67 48.0
Saint Paul MN 172 2.38 0.25 48.0
Topeka KS 172 2.45 1.58 48.0
Raleigh NC 172 2.47 -0.84 48.0
Harrisburg PA 172 2.47 -1.53 48.0
Providence RI 172 2.51 -2.30 48.0
Lincoln NE 172 2.62 1.41 48.0
Atlanta GA 172 2.64 1.24 48.0
Boise ID 172 2.69 -0.06 48.0
Bismarck ND 172 2.81 0.77 48.0
Boston MA 172 2.83 -1.28 48.0
Helena MT 172 2.83 -0.81 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 172 2.84 1.34 48.0
Concord NH 172 2.85 -0.23 48.0
Frankfort KY 172 2.88 1.04 48.0
Carson City NV 172 2.88 -0.68 48.0
Phoenix AZ 172 2.90 -2.32 48.0
Dover DE 172 2.90 -2.13 48.0
Des Moines IA 172 2.95 1.66 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 172 2.96 1.49 48.0
Juneau AK 172 3.08 -0.32 48.0
Tallahassee FL 172 3.22 -0.17 48.0
Montpelier VT 172 3.22 0.98 48.0
Denver CO 172 3.33 0.89 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 172 3.40 -2.41 48.0
Olympia WA 172 3.41 0.41 48.0
Montgomery AL 172 3.43 1.48 48.0
Pierre SD 172 3.44 2.06 48.0
Santa Fe NM 172 3.75 -2.62 48.0
Springfield IL 172 3.79 3.22 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Montgomery AL 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 20:00 MST Phoenix AZ 97.0°F 100.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Little Rock AR 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 20:00 PDT Sacramento CA 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 MDT Denver CO 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Hartford CT 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Dover DE 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Atlanta GA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 17:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 MDT Boise ID 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Springfield IL 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Des Moines IA 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Topeka KS 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Augusta ME 54.0°F 57.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Boston MA 63.0°F 67.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Lansing MI 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Jackson MS 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Lincoln NE 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 20:00 PDT Carson City NV 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Concord NH 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Trenton NJ 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 72.0°F 79.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Albany NY 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Raleigh NC 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Bismarck ND 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Columbus OH 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 20:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Providence RI 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 23:00 EDT Columbia SC 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0