Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.44 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 1.57 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.66 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 1.79 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 1.89 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 1.99 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.03 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.06 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.07 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.11 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.13 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.17 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.21 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.22 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.22 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.30 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.31 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.33 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.36 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.36 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.37 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.39 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.39 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.40 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.40 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.41 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.45 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.48 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 2.49 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.50 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.53 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.62 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.64 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.66 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.66 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.69 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.73 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.82 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.85 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.86 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.87 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.89 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.90 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.90 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.94 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.01 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.15 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.20 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.22 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.40 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 106.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 65.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 54.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |