Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.23 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.68 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.95 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.08 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.18 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.25 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.30 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.39 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.46 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.48 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.53 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.54 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.57 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.57 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.65 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.66 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.66 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.67 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.72 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.73 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.73 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.80 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.86 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.86 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.87 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.91 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.91 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.95 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.95 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.98 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.99 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.99 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 3.03 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 3.09 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 3.12 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.13 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.13 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.14 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.22 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 3.37 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.54 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 3.64 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.78 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 3.93 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.95 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 4.05 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 4.46 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 4.54 | 4.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 4.80 | 3.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 5.70 | 4.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 41.0°F | 35.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 34.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 36.0°F | 30.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 34.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |