Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.21 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.61 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.98 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.02 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.11 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.30 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.32 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.45 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.46 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.51 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.51 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.53 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.55 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.57 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.64 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.66 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.69 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.69 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.73 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.75 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.78 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.78 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.89 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.90 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.90 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.93 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.94 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.97 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.98 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 3.02 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.05 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 3.05 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.05 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 3.08 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.09 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 3.11 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 3.14 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.14 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.20 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 3.45 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.52 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 3.68 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 3.88 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 4.01 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 4.01 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 4.02 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 4.59 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 4.66 | 4.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 4.84 | 3.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 5.79 | 4.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 37.0°F | 37.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 37.0°F | 35.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 36.0°F | 35.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 41.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 35.0°F | 33.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 51.0°F | 58.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |