Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.30 | 0.15 | 41.4 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 1.37 | 0.54 | 41.4 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.68 | -0.81 | 41.4 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.80 | -0.85 | 41.4 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.81 | 0.02 | 41.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 1.85 | -0.50 | 41.4 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 1.86 | 0.77 | 41.4 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.88 | 0.39 | 41.4 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.02 | 1.19 | 41.4 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.06 | 0.92 | 41.4 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.08 | -0.02 | 41.4 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.09 | 0.85 | 41.4 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.17 | 0.74 | 41.4 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.17 | 1.80 | 41.4 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.19 | 0.61 | 41.4 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.22 | 1.15 | 41.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.23 | -0.04 | 41.4 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.23 | 0.09 | 41.4 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.28 | 0.15 | 41.4 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.32 | 1.55 | 41.4 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.35 | 0.94 | 41.4 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.36 | 1.51 | 41.4 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.39 | 1.65 | 41.4 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.48 | 2.19 | 41.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.54 | 2.04 | 41.4 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.54 | 1.40 | 41.4 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.57 | 2.27 | 41.4 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.60 | 2.09 | 41.4 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.69 | -1.11 | 41.4 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.73 | 1.61 | 41.4 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.76 | 1.61 | 41.4 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.80 | 2.14 | 41.4 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.82 | 1.70 | 41.4 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.85 | 0.39 | 41.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.94 | 2.11 | 41.4 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.97 | 1.06 | 41.4 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.00 | 0.74 | 41.4 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 3.04 | 2.27 | 41.4 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 3.12 | -2.82 | 41.4 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 3.19 | 1.30 | 41.4 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.39 | 2.19 | 41.4 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.40 | -1.48 | 41.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.47 | 3.37 | 41.4 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.50 | 2.91 | 41.4 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.59 | 3.51 | 41.4 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.67 | 3.05 | 41.4 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 3.70 | 2.81 | 41.4 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.78 | 2.70 | 41.4 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 4.09 | 1.30 | 41.4 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 4.22 | 1.50 | 41.4 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 82.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |