Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 152 | 1.18 | 0.20 | 40.6 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 152 | 1.27 | 0.34 | 40.6 |
| Little Rock AR | 152 | 1.69 | -0.72 | 40.6 |
| Raleigh NC | 152 | 1.70 | 0.10 | 40.6 |
| Honolulu HI | 152 | 1.74 | -0.78 | 40.6 |
| Sacramento CA | 152 | 1.84 | -0.32 | 40.6 |
| Indianapolis IN | 152 | 1.84 | -0.11 | 40.6 |
| Madison WI | 151 | 1.87 | 0.66 | 40.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 152 | 1.96 | 0.84 | 40.6 |
| Tallahassee FL | 152 | 1.99 | 0.38 | 40.6 |
| Columbus OH | 151 | 2.02 | 1.46 | 40.5 |
| Juneau AK | 152 | 2.03 | 0.16 | 40.6 |
| Des Moines IA | 152 | 2.03 | 1.28 | 40.6 |
| Frankfort KY | 152 | 2.03 | 0.91 | 40.6 |
| Cheyenne WY | 151 | 2.17 | 0.93 | 40.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 152 | 2.22 | 1.05 | 40.6 |
| Montgomery AL | 152 | 2.24 | 0.12 | 40.6 |
| Saint Paul MN | 152 | 2.29 | 2.01 | 40.6 |
| Atlanta GA | 152 | 2.32 | 0.18 | 40.6 |
| Austin TX | 151 | 2.36 | 1.21 | 40.5 |
| Salem OR | 151 | 2.38 | 1.58 | 40.5 |
| Nashville TN | 151 | 2.39 | 0.26 | 40.5 |
| Springfield IL | 152 | 2.40 | 2.07 | 40.6 |
| Richmond VA | 151 | 2.44 | 1.64 | 40.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 151 | 2.48 | -0.70 | 40.5 |
| Charleston WV | 151 | 2.58 | 1.68 | 40.5 |
| Topeka KS | 152 | 2.67 | 2.54 | 40.6 |
| Bismarck ND | 152 | 2.69 | 2.19 | 40.6 |
| Trenton NJ | 152 | 2.71 | 2.33 | 40.6 |
| Carson City NV | 152 | 2.80 | 0.61 | 40.6 |
| Denver CO | 152 | 2.81 | 2.01 | 40.6 |
| Lansing MI | 152 | 2.86 | 2.41 | 40.6 |
| Hartford CT | 152 | 2.89 | 1.86 | 40.6 |
| Boise ID | 152 | 3.00 | 1.83 | 40.6 |
| Harrisburg PA | 151 | 3.02 | 2.49 | 40.5 |
| Olympia WA | 151 | 3.03 | 1.12 | 40.5 |
| Providence RI | 151 | 3.05 | 2.36 | 40.5 |
| Columbia SC | 151 | 3.11 | -2.76 | 40.5 |
| Dover DE | 152 | 3.24 | 1.20 | 40.6 |
| Santa Fe NM | 152 | 3.25 | -1.25 | 40.6 |
| Boston MA | 152 | 3.35 | 2.26 | 40.6 |
| Augusta ME | 152 | 3.37 | 1.57 | 40.6 |
| Helena MT | 152 | 3.49 | 2.82 | 40.6 |
| Pierre SD | 151 | 3.63 | 3.54 | 40.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 152 | 3.64 | 3.59 | 40.6 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 151 | 3.66 | 3.00 | 40.5 |
| Albany NY | 152 | 3.86 | 3.22 | 40.6 |
| Phoenix AZ | 152 | 3.96 | 1.33 | 40.6 |
| Concord NH | 152 | 4.04 | 3.09 | 40.6 |
| Montpelier VT | 151 | 4.32 | 1.80 | 40.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |