Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.44 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.55 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.58 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.63 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.72 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.77 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.81 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.94 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 1.98 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 1.98 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.02 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.11 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.13 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.15 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.22 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.26 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.30 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.34 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.40 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.41 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.41 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.43 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.47 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.49 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.51 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.54 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.62 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.62 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.67 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.70 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.70 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.75 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.82 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.95 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.99 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.00 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.03 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 3.03 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 3.25 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 3.28 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.33 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 3.40 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.48 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.49 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.52 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.62 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 4.06 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 4.17 | 3.23 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 4.20 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 4.87 | 3.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 34.0°F | 24.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 57.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |