Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.29 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.50 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.53 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.73 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 1.95 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.00 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.04 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.06 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.12 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.13 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.21 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.23 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.23 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.26 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.28 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.31 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.32 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.32 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.33 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.36 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.43 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.49 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.49 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.53 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.54 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.55 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.61 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.63 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.76 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.77 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.80 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.81 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.85 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.87 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.87 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.95 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.06 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 3.09 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.09 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.10 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.24 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.37 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.61 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.71 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.76 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 3.79 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.84 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 4.43 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 4.51 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 5.82 | 3.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 42.0°F | 52.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 39.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 50.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 31.0°F | 35.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |