Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 68 | 1.16 | 0.69 | 31.4 |
| Raleigh NC | 68 | 1.21 | -0.03 | 31.4 |
| Columbus OH | 67 | 1.33 | 0.82 | 31.2 |
| Jackson MS | 68 | 1.40 | -0.22 | 31.4 |
| Honolulu HI | 68 | 1.46 | 0.25 | 31.4 |
| Cheyenne WY | 67 | 1.46 | 0.42 | 31.2 |
| Tallahassee FL | 68 | 1.56 | 0.12 | 31.4 |
| Annapolis MD | 68 | 1.59 | 0.26 | 31.4 |
| Juneau AK | 68 | 1.66 | 0.81 | 31.4 |
| Little Rock AR | 68 | 1.79 | 0.18 | 31.4 |
| Madison WI | 67 | 1.82 | 1.19 | 31.2 |
| Indianapolis IN | 68 | 1.84 | 1.13 | 31.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 67 | 1.84 | 0.97 | 31.2 |
| Nashville TN | 67 | 1.94 | 0.27 | 31.2 |
| Jefferson City MO | 68 | 1.97 | 0.97 | 31.4 |
| Frankfort KY | 68 | 2.00 | 0.56 | 31.4 |
| Des Moines IA | 68 | 2.06 | 0.76 | 31.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 68 | 2.07 | -0.54 | 31.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 68 | 2.09 | -0.41 | 31.4 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 67 | 2.09 | 0.03 | 31.2 |
| Bismarck ND | 68 | 2.16 | 1.81 | 31.4 |
| Richmond VA | 67 | 2.40 | 2.07 | 31.2 |
| Atlanta GA | 68 | 2.41 | -1.53 | 31.4 |
| Pierre SD | 67 | 2.61 | 2.58 | 31.2 |
| Dover DE | 68 | 2.71 | 0.50 | 31.4 |
| Topeka KS | 68 | 2.79 | 2.71 | 31.4 |
| Springfield IL | 68 | 2.81 | 2.49 | 31.4 |
| Boise ID | 68 | 2.88 | 1.62 | 31.4 |
| Salem OR | 67 | 2.90 | 2.45 | 31.2 |
| Trenton NJ | 68 | 2.96 | 2.54 | 31.4 |
| Helena MT | 68 | 2.97 | 1.68 | 31.4 |
| Lansing MI | 68 | 3.04 | 2.60 | 31.4 |
| Santa Fe NM | 68 | 3.04 | -1.37 | 31.4 |
| Denver CO | 68 | 3.06 | 2.53 | 31.4 |
| Charleston WV | 67 | 3.06 | 3.06 | 31.2 |
| Saint Paul MN | 68 | 3.07 | 2.87 | 31.4 |
| Hartford CT | 68 | 3.38 | 2.41 | 31.4 |
| Phoenix AZ | 68 | 3.49 | 2.22 | 31.4 |
| Columbia SC | 67 | 3.52 | -3.52 | 31.2 |
| Olympia WA | 67 | 3.54 | 0.43 | 31.2 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 67 | 3.60 | 2.13 | 31.2 |
| Carson City NV | 68 | 3.69 | 2.84 | 31.4 |
| Austin TX | 67 | 3.85 | 3.43 | 31.2 |
| Providence RI | 67 | 3.96 | 3.90 | 31.2 |
| Lincoln NE | 68 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 31.4 |
| Augusta ME | 68 | 4.03 | 2.38 | 31.4 |
| Boston MA | 68 | 4.26 | 3.62 | 31.4 |
| Concord NH | 68 | 5.15 | 4.53 | 31.4 |
| Montpelier VT | 67 | 5.33 | 3.00 | 31.2 |
| Albany NY | 68 | 5.37 | 4.25 | 31.4 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 98.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 97.0°F | 86.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 74.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 73.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 75.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 74.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |