Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.31 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.71 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.92 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 1.93 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 1.99 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.23 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.32 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.36 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.41 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.46 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.47 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.48 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.49 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.55 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.59 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.60 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.60 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.64 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.71 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.71 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.73 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.74 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.76 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.79 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.83 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.88 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.88 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.97 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.00 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 3.09 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 3.14 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.14 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.16 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.18 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 3.21 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 3.27 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 3.29 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.29 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.34 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.44 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 3.51 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.52 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.65 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.70 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.75 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 3.77 | 3.54 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 3.84 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.93 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 4.37 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 4.45 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 37.0°F | 38.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 54.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 60.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 25.0°F | 28.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 50.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 33.0°F | 30.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |