Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.63 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.66 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.72 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.72 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 1.77 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 1.99 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.01 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.02 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.05 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.09 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.10 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.12 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.12 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.18 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.20 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.28 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.28 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.29 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.30 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.33 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.33 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.37 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.43 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.45 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.47 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.47 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.51 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.55 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.56 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.59 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.63 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.67 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.70 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.71 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.71 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.83 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.84 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.88 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.91 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.92 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 3.06 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.28 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.32 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.46 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 3.57 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.67 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 3.79 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.84 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.86 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.89 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 MST | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 MST | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 61.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 MST | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 PST | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 57.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 PST | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 EST | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |