Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.41 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 1.80 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 1.88 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.90 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 1.98 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.98 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 1.99 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.02 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.04 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.07 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.14 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.26 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.29 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.30 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.34 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.36 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.37 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.37 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.41 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.42 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.46 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.54 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.54 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.54 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.57 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.57 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.59 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.61 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.62 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.69 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.71 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.72 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.79 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.81 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.82 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.84 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.86 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.95 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.99 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 3.04 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.06 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 3.07 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 3.12 | -2.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 3.13 | -2.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.22 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.33 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 3.41 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.43 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.61 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 4.00 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 03:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 04:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 47.0°F | 41.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 MST | Denver CO | 38.0°F | 41.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 MST | Boise ID | 34.0°F | 36.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Springfield IL | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Topeka KS | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 61.0°F | 53.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 34.0°F | 31.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Jackson MS | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 MST | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 36.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 37.0°F | 38.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 04:00 PST | Carson City NV | 34.0°F | 28.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 05:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 29.0°F | 32.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Columbus OH | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 04:00 PST | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 EST | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |