Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 118 | 1.18 | -0.08 | 38.4 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 118 | 1.24 | 0.17 | 38.4 |
| Honolulu HI | 118 | 1.57 | -0.33 | 38.4 |
| Raleigh NC | 118 | 1.58 | 0.14 | 38.4 |
| Cheyenne WY | 117 | 1.67 | 0.47 | 38.4 |
| Little Rock AR | 118 | 1.73 | -0.56 | 38.4 |
| Jefferson City MO | 118 | 1.74 | 0.48 | 38.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 118 | 1.78 | -0.02 | 38.4 |
| Madison WI | 117 | 1.85 | 0.49 | 38.4 |
| Juneau AK | 118 | 1.86 | 0.30 | 38.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 118 | 1.98 | -0.75 | 38.4 |
| Frankfort KY | 118 | 1.98 | 0.95 | 38.4 |
| Des Moines IA | 118 | 2.00 | 1.15 | 38.4 |
| Indianapolis IN | 118 | 2.05 | 0.10 | 38.4 |
| Tallahassee FL | 118 | 2.08 | 0.37 | 38.4 |
| Columbus OH | 117 | 2.10 | 1.44 | 38.4 |
| Nashville TN | 117 | 2.31 | 0.14 | 38.4 |
| Saint Paul MN | 118 | 2.33 | 2.01 | 38.4 |
| Annapolis MD | 118 | 2.35 | 0.92 | 38.4 |
| Springfield IL | 118 | 2.40 | 2.04 | 38.4 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 117 | 2.46 | -0.17 | 38.4 |
| Atlanta GA | 118 | 2.47 | -0.27 | 38.4 |
| Richmond VA | 117 | 2.52 | 2.15 | 38.4 |
| Salem OR | 117 | 2.59 | 2.13 | 38.4 |
| Carson City NV | 118 | 2.70 | 1.48 | 38.4 |
| Austin TX | 117 | 2.75 | 1.56 | 38.4 |
| Lansing MI | 118 | 2.83 | 2.27 | 38.4 |
| Charleston WV | 117 | 2.83 | 2.28 | 38.4 |
| Trenton NJ | 118 | 2.90 | 2.46 | 38.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 118 | 2.92 | 2.50 | 38.4 |
| Boise ID | 118 | 2.93 | 1.49 | 38.4 |
| Denver CO | 118 | 2.97 | 2.43 | 38.4 |
| Topeka KS | 118 | 3.05 | 2.98 | 38.4 |
| Santa Fe NM | 118 | 3.09 | -0.77 | 38.4 |
| Columbia SC | 117 | 3.12 | -2.68 | 38.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 117 | 3.23 | 2.65 | 38.4 |
| Hartford CT | 118 | 3.25 | 2.36 | 38.4 |
| Olympia WA | 117 | 3.26 | 1.22 | 38.4 |
| Pierre SD | 117 | 3.27 | 3.24 | 38.4 |
| Providence RI | 117 | 3.46 | 2.97 | 38.4 |
| Dover DE | 118 | 3.67 | 1.16 | 38.4 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 117 | 3.73 | 2.87 | 38.4 |
| Boston MA | 118 | 3.74 | 2.97 | 38.4 |
| Augusta ME | 118 | 3.82 | 1.94 | 38.4 |
| Helena MT | 118 | 3.86 | 3.05 | 38.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 118 | 4.02 | 4.00 | 38.4 |
| Phoenix AZ | 118 | 4.10 | 2.64 | 38.4 |
| Concord NH | 118 | 4.53 | 3.90 | 38.4 |
| Albany NY | 118 | 4.63 | 3.92 | 38.4 |
| Montpelier VT | 117 | 4.81 | 2.61 | 38.4 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |