Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 139 | 1.17 | 0.09 | 39.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 139 | 1.32 | 0.35 | 39.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 139 | 1.63 | -0.56 | 39.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 139 | 1.63 | 0.35 | 39.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 139 | 1.68 | -0.63 | 39.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 139 | 1.75 | -0.09 | 39.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 139 | 1.83 | 0.05 | 39.9 |
| Madison WI | 138 | 1.89 | 0.73 | 39.8 |
| Jefferson City MO | 139 | 1.90 | 0.68 | 39.9 |
| Juneau AK | 139 | 1.91 | -0.06 | 39.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 139 | 2.00 | 1.12 | 39.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 138 | 2.01 | 0.67 | 39.8 |
| Tallahassee FL | 139 | 2.07 | 0.52 | 39.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 139 | 2.09 | 1.34 | 39.9 |
| Columbus OH | 138 | 2.10 | 1.54 | 39.8 |
| Saint Paul MN | 139 | 2.22 | 1.94 | 39.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 139 | 2.25 | -0.06 | 39.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 139 | 2.27 | 1.05 | 39.9 |
| Nashville TN | 138 | 2.35 | 0.01 | 39.8 |
| Atlanta GA | 139 | 2.37 | 0.04 | 39.9 |
| Springfield IL | 139 | 2.40 | 2.04 | 39.9 |
| Salem OR | 138 | 2.41 | 1.90 | 39.8 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 138 | 2.44 | -0.49 | 39.8 |
| Austin TX | 138 | 2.45 | 1.26 | 39.8 |
| Richmond VA | 138 | 2.54 | 1.84 | 39.8 |
| Charleston WV | 138 | 2.67 | 1.74 | 39.8 |
| Bismarck ND | 139 | 2.69 | 2.19 | 39.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 139 | 2.72 | 2.30 | 39.9 |
| Carson City NV | 139 | 2.79 | 0.86 | 39.9 |
| Topeka KS | 139 | 2.84 | 2.76 | 39.9 |
| Lansing MI | 139 | 2.86 | 2.38 | 39.9 |
| Denver CO | 139 | 2.88 | 2.29 | 39.9 |
| Hartford CT | 139 | 2.99 | 2.01 | 39.9 |
| Boise ID | 139 | 3.04 | 1.81 | 39.9 |
| Columbia SC | 138 | 3.04 | -2.67 | 39.8 |
| Olympia WA | 138 | 3.07 | 1.15 | 39.8 |
| Santa Fe NM | 139 | 3.08 | -0.91 | 39.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 138 | 3.10 | 2.54 | 39.8 |
| Providence RI | 138 | 3.21 | 2.70 | 39.8 |
| Dover DE | 139 | 3.29 | 1.08 | 39.9 |
| Boston MA | 139 | 3.47 | 2.65 | 39.9 |
| Augusta ME | 139 | 3.53 | 1.83 | 39.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 138 | 3.53 | 2.80 | 39.8 |
| Lincoln NE | 139 | 3.66 | 3.60 | 39.9 |
| Pierre SD | 138 | 3.67 | 3.64 | 39.8 |
| Helena MT | 139 | 3.68 | 2.97 | 39.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 139 | 3.80 | 1.99 | 39.9 |
| Albany NY | 139 | 4.09 | 3.47 | 39.9 |
| Concord NH | 139 | 4.20 | 3.22 | 39.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 138 | 4.33 | 2.30 | 39.8 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 103.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 87.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 94.0°F | 85.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |