Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.62 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.73 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 1.82 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 1.85 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 1.87 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.91 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.94 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 1.95 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 1.96 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.97 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.99 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.01 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.10 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.20 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.21 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.26 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.26 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.31 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.34 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.40 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.40 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.41 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.41 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.42 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.44 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.49 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.64 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.67 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.72 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.73 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.78 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.78 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.80 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.82 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.83 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.86 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.87 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.91 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.93 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.95 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 3.14 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.29 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.30 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.31 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.42 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.48 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.61 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.62 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.64 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.77 | -2.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 69.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 74.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 64.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 92.0°F | 103.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |