Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.62 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.64 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.66 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.73 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 1.77 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.97 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.99 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.03 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.06 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.09 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.09 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.10 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.11 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.12 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.17 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.28 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.28 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.30 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.30 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.31 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.31 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.33 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.44 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.44 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.46 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.47 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.53 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.53 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.55 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.60 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.61 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.64 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.69 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.72 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.73 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.82 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.82 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.86 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.87 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.91 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.06 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.27 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 3.34 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.44 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 3.57 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.66 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.81 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.83 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.86 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.87 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 MST | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 47.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 MST | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 60.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 MST | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 49.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 PST | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 73.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 56.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 PST | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 EST | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |