Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 1.73 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 1.75 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 1.76 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.81 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.89 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.95 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.01 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.01 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.03 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.03 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.05 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.09 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.12 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.13 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.16 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.17 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.21 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.23 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.24 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.25 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 2.26 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.27 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.27 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.27 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.27 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.27 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.33 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.39 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.42 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.44 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.49 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.55 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.64 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.69 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.74 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.80 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.82 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.82 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.85 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.85 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.90 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.91 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.92 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 3.05 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.05 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.16 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.18 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.18 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.62 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 3.74 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 101.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |