Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.30 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.46 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.74 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 1.86 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 1.86 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.93 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 1.95 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.98 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.05 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.21 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.25 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.26 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.28 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.29 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.31 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.32 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.35 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.40 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.41 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.41 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.41 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.42 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.45 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.47 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.49 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.52 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.52 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.53 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.58 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.59 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.71 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.73 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.73 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.84 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.85 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.87 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.92 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.98 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.01 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.05 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 3.10 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.17 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.22 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.25 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.39 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.57 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.62 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.65 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 4.37 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 4.62 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 51.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |