Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.33 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.73 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.90 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 1.96 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 1.99 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.25 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.33 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.36 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.43 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.47 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.48 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.51 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.51 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.52 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.58 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.63 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.64 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.67 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.67 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.68 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.73 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.74 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.80 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.82 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.83 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.87 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.89 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.97 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.98 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.04 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.13 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.14 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 3.17 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.20 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 3.23 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.28 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 3.33 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 3.34 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 3.35 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.38 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.46 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.54 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.66 | 3.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.69 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.74 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 3.74 | 3.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 3.78 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.88 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 4.31 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 4.45 | 3.51 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 56.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 64.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 27.0°F | 27.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 53.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 57.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 60.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |