Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.43 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.68 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.70 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 1.84 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.84 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.94 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.11 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.22 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.24 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.27 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.28 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.31 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.32 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.34 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.35 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.43 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.44 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.48 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.50 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.56 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.60 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.64 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.65 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.67 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.68 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.70 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.74 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.74 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.81 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.83 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.86 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.95 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.96 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.98 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 3.01 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 3.01 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.08 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.13 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.25 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.26 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 3.27 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.38 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.39 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.40 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.42 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.43 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.71 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 4.01 | 3.80 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 5.04 | 4.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 110.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 65.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 84.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |