Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.45 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.54 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.71 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.80 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.83 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.99 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.04 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.10 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.10 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.13 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.18 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.34 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.35 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.39 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.45 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.45 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.46 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.47 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.50 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.52 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.55 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.58 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.61 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.65 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.72 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.72 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.77 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.85 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.93 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 2.95 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.98 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.01 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.06 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.10 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.17 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 3.19 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 3.22 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.22 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 3.24 | -3.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.24 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.27 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 3.28 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 3.32 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.38 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.62 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 3.83 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.83 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.96 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 4.11 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 4.18 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 51.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |