Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.37 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.70 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.95 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.05 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.09 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.30 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.33 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.39 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.43 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.43 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.44 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.50 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.56 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.58 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.70 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.70 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.70 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.73 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.75 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.76 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.79 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.82 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.86 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.89 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.92 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.93 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.95 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.95 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.98 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 3.00 | -2.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.05 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.05 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.12 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 3.27 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.30 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.31 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.34 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.40 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 3.46 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.50 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.57 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.65 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.67 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 3.70 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 3.73 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.85 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.85 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.98 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 4.48 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 67.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 35.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 68.0°F | +18.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |