Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.42 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.48 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 1.62 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.72 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 1.81 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 1.82 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.01 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.06 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.12 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.13 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.16 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.17 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.19 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.21 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.22 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.22 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.24 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.25 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.26 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.29 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.37 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.38 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.42 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.42 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.46 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.46 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.53 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.60 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.63 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.65 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.65 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.68 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.77 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.81 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.84 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.86 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.89 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.93 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.98 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.98 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.02 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.06 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.10 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.14 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.22 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 3.24 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.28 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.36 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.36 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 3.71 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 91.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 113.0°F | 111.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 75.0°F | +18.0° | 48.0 |