Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.35 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.83 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 1.86 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 1.86 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.94 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.17 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.41 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.45 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.47 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.50 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.52 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.53 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.54 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.56 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.60 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.61 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.62 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.64 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.66 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.67 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.68 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.68 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.74 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.74 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.81 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.85 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.93 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 3.01 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.06 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.08 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.17 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.20 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 3.23 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 3.24 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.28 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.29 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.30 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.32 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.39 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.50 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.54 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 3.74 | 3.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.76 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.77 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 3.83 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.91 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 3.95 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 4.06 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 4.50 | 3.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 5.59 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 63.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 34.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 52.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 47.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 70.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |