Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 166 | 1.26 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 166 | 1.29 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 166 | 1.93 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 166 | 1.95 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 166 | 2.02 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 166 | 2.08 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 166 | 2.11 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 166 | 2.17 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 166 | 2.17 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 166 | 2.18 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 166 | 2.21 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 166 | 2.25 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 166 | 2.27 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 166 | 2.27 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 166 | 2.29 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 166 | 2.31 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 166 | 2.31 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 166 | 2.42 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 166 | 2.45 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 166 | 2.49 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 166 | 2.55 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 166 | 2.55 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 166 | 2.55 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 166 | 2.56 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 166 | 2.61 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 166 | 2.61 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 166 | 2.62 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 166 | 2.74 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 166 | 2.77 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 166 | 2.79 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 166 | 2.82 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 166 | 2.86 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 166 | 2.90 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 166 | 2.90 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 166 | 2.92 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 166 | 2.92 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 166 | 2.94 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 166 | 2.98 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 166 | 3.02 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 166 | 3.03 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 166 | 3.10 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 166 | 3.14 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 166 | 3.17 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 166 | 3.17 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 166 | 3.21 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 166 | 3.26 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 166 | 3.28 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 166 | 3.34 | -2.61 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 166 | 3.53 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 166 | 3.78 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 16:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 17:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 MST | Denver CO | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Dover DE | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 MST | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Springfield IL | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Topeka KS | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Lansing MI | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Jackson MS | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 MST | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 17:00 PST | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 18:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Albany NY | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Columbus OH | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 19:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 17:00 PST | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-07 20:00 EST | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |