Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.46 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.49 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.76 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.80 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.85 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.03 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.08 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.08 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.10 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.14 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.19 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.23 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.25 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.27 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.29 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.29 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.36 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.42 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.42 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.44 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.46 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.49 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.52 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.56 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.56 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.56 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.60 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.62 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.87 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.93 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.94 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.98 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.99 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.02 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.08 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.10 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 3.15 | -2.85 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.15 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 3.18 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 3.23 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.30 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.36 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.44 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.54 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.55 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 3.59 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.73 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.82 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.87 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 4.07 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 35.0°F | 27.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 40.0°F | 33.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 30.0°F | 35.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 30.0°F | 29.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 28.0°F | 26.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 33.0°F | 31.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 34.0°F | 29.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 36.0°F | 37.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 43.0°F | 37.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 50.0°F | 56.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |