Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
11483
551232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.72°
9400 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-23 19:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 188 1.52 0.12 47.9
Little Rock AR 188 1.63 -0.77 47.9
Jackson MS 188 1.65 0.77 47.9
Indianapolis IN 188 1.73 -0.41 47.9
Atlanta GA 188 1.84 0.65 47.9
Honolulu HI 188 1.85 -1.45 47.9
Baton Rouge LA 188 2.15 1.39 47.9
Providence RI 188 2.24 0.97 47.9
Columbus OH 188 2.25 1.28 47.9
Raleigh NC 188 2.26 0.06 47.9
Charleston WV 188 2.30 0.20 47.9
Tallahassee FL 188 2.32 0.77 47.9
Hartford CT 188 2.35 0.58 47.9
Juneau AK 188 2.36 0.03 47.9
Frankfort KY 188 2.38 1.34 47.9
Nashville TN 188 2.40 0.13 47.9
Saint Paul MN 188 2.41 2.09 47.9
Jefferson City MO 188 2.43 1.42 47.9
Montgomery AL 188 2.47 0.45 47.9
Madison WI 188 2.47 1.51 47.9
Cheyenne WY 188 2.53 0.55 47.9
Augusta ME 188 2.54 0.64 47.9
Trenton NJ 188 2.54 1.20 47.9
Des Moines IA 188 2.67 2.09 47.9
Annapolis MD 188 2.68 1.12 47.9
Carson City NV 188 2.68 0.26 47.9
Albany NY 188 2.77 1.80 47.9
Boston MA 188 2.83 1.44 47.9
Richmond VA 188 2.84 1.86 47.9
Sacramento CA 188 2.86 0.45 47.9
Harrisburg PA 188 2.87 1.38 47.9
Springfield IL 188 2.89 2.73 47.9
Lansing MI 188 2.90 1.95 47.9
Salt Lake City UT 188 2.95 -1.44 47.9
Topeka KS 188 2.97 2.70 47.9
Columbia SC 188 2.97 -2.60 47.9
Dover DE 188 3.06 0.66 47.9
Concord NH 188 3.09 1.72 47.9
Boise ID 188 3.22 2.23 47.9
Bismarck ND 188 3.22 2.76 47.9
Helena MT 188 3.24 2.22 47.9
Denver CO 188 3.31 1.42 47.9
Santa Fe NM 188 3.33 -0.69 47.9
Salem OR 188 3.36 1.57 47.9
Oklahoma City OK 188 3.39 3.21 47.9
Montpelier VT 188 3.46 0.86 47.9
Olympia WA 188 3.57 -0.14 47.9
Phoenix AZ 188 3.59 1.02 47.9
Lincoln NE 188 4.19 4.02 47.9
Pierre SD 188 4.55 4.45 47.9

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Montgomery AL 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 11:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 12:00 MST Phoenix AZ 106.0°F 107.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Little Rock AR 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 12:00 PDT Sacramento CA 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 13:00 MDT Denver CO 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Atlanta GA 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 09:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 13:00 MDT Boise ID 94.0°F 95.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Springfield IL 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Des Moines IA 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Topeka KS 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Frankfort KY 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Augusta ME 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Boston MA 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Lansing MI 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Jackson MS 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 13:00 MDT Helena MT 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Lincoln NE 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 12:00 PDT Carson City NV 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Concord NH 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Trenton NJ 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 13:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Raleigh NC 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Bismarck ND 85.0°F 80.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Columbus OH 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 14:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 12:00 PDT Salem OR 79.0°F 73.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Providence RI 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 15:00 EDT Columbia SC 86.0°F 91.0°F -5.0° 48.0