Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 24 | 0.79 | -0.29 | 12.5 |
| Richmond VA | 23 | 0.83 | 0.30 | 12.0 |
| Columbus OH | 23 | 0.91 | 0.04 | 12.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 24 | 1.04 | 0.88 | 12.5 |
| Juneau AK | 24 | 1.25 | 0.67 | 12.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 24 | 1.25 | 0.25 | 12.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 24 | 1.25 | 0.42 | 12.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 24 | 1.25 | -0.75 | 12.5 |
| Nashville TN | 23 | 1.52 | -0.74 | 12.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 23 | 1.57 | -1.04 | 12.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 23 | 1.57 | 0.87 | 12.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 24 | 1.63 | 0.54 | 12.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 24 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 12.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 24 | 1.67 | 0.42 | 12.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 24 | 1.79 | 1.79 | 12.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 24 | 1.83 | 1.00 | 12.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 23 | 1.83 | 1.13 | 12.0 |
| Jackson MS | 24 | 1.88 | 0.13 | 12.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 24 | 1.92 | 0.00 | 12.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 24 | 1.96 | -1.71 | 12.5 |
| Charleston WV | 23 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 12.0 |
| Madison WI | 23 | 2.00 | 1.13 | 12.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 23 | 2.04 | 1.43 | 12.0 |
| Topeka KS | 24 | 2.08 | 2.00 | 12.5 |
| Lansing MI | 24 | 2.08 | 1.83 | 12.5 |
| Pierre SD | 23 | 2.13 | 2.04 | 12.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 24 | 2.17 | -1.50 | 12.5 |
| Salem OR | 23 | 2.17 | 1.48 | 12.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 24 | 2.25 | 0.83 | 12.5 |
| Springfield IL | 24 | 2.33 | 1.92 | 12.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 24 | 2.67 | 0.50 | 12.5 |
| Dover DE | 24 | 2.75 | 0.08 | 12.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 24 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 12.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 24 | 2.75 | -1.25 | 12.5 |
| Columbia SC | 23 | 2.78 | -2.78 | 12.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 24 | 2.79 | 2.71 | 12.5 |
| Hartford CT | 24 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 12.5 |
| Providence RI | 23 | 3.43 | 3.26 | 12.0 |
| Helena MT | 24 | 3.67 | 2.92 | 12.5 |
| Austin TX | 23 | 3.74 | 3.74 | 12.0 |
| Boston MA | 24 | 3.88 | 3.71 | 12.5 |
| Denver CO | 24 | 3.96 | 3.96 | 12.5 |
| Olympia WA | 23 | 4.04 | 0.04 | 12.0 |
| Boise ID | 24 | 4.21 | 3.13 | 12.5 |
| Carson City NV | 24 | 4.58 | 3.75 | 12.5 |
| Albany NY | 24 | 5.17 | 3.50 | 12.5 |
| Augusta ME | 24 | 5.25 | 4.75 | 12.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 23 | 5.61 | 3.87 | 12.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 24 | 5.79 | 4.96 | 12.5 |
| Concord NH | 24 | 5.92 | 4.67 | 12.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 101.0°F | -4.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 63.0°F | +11.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 84.0°F | -6.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 24.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 23.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 23.0 |