Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.57 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.67 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 1.74 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.81 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.82 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 1.88 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.00 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.00 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.01 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.07 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.07 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.08 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.12 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.15 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.16 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.23 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.27 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.34 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.36 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.36 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.39 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.40 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.44 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.46 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.49 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.57 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.58 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.59 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.59 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.61 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.64 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.74 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.75 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.78 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.78 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.80 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.85 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.90 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.94 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.97 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.98 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.02 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.18 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.31 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 3.45 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 3.49 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.53 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.64 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.78 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 4.14 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 02:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 03:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 04:00 MST | Denver CO | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 04:00 MST | Boise ID | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 63.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 54.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 56.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 71.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 04:00 MST | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 29.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 03:00 PST | Carson City NV | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 48.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 04:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 35.0°F | 37.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 54.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 03:00 PST | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 53.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 EST | Columbia SC | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |