Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.33 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 1.55 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.61 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.64 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.74 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 1.81 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.95 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 1.99 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.01 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.07 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.09 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.11 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.13 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.15 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.19 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.27 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.28 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.29 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.32 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.34 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.37 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.38 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.45 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.50 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.51 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.51 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.52 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.52 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.53 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.56 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.60 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.61 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.67 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.71 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.73 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.73 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.79 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.85 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.97 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.00 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.01 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.12 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.18 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.18 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.28 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.31 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.32 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.50 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.54 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.69 | 3.28 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 107.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 73.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 65.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 103.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |