Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.45 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.50 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.75 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 1.83 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.84 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 1.91 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.01 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.07 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.15 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.21 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.22 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.32 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.42 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.47 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.48 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.49 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.50 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.51 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.51 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.53 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.53 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.55 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.66 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.67 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.69 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.69 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.78 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.83 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.84 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.91 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.92 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.99 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.10 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 3.11 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.23 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.24 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.28 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.28 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.32 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.34 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 3.35 | -3.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.37 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 3.45 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 3.46 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.53 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 3.68 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.72 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 4.03 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 4.21 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 4.28 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 37.0°F | 33.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 49.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 33.0°F | 37.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 36.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 34.0°F | 34.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 35.0°F | 41.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 53.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 33.0°F | 34.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 53.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |