Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 81 | 1.19 | -0.05 | 34.1 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 81 | 1.22 | 0.38 | 34.1 |
| Jackson MS | 81 | 1.26 | -0.25 | 34.1 |
| Columbus OH | 80 | 1.34 | 0.86 | 33.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 81 | 1.46 | 0.27 | 34.1 |
| Tallahassee FL | 81 | 1.56 | 0.27 | 34.1 |
| Cheyenne WY | 80 | 1.61 | 0.24 | 33.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 81 | 1.65 | 0.44 | 34.1 |
| Madison WI | 80 | 1.71 | 0.94 | 33.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 81 | 1.84 | -0.16 | 34.1 |
| Frankfort KY | 81 | 1.84 | 0.33 | 34.1 |
| Des Moines IA | 81 | 1.90 | 0.69 | 34.1 |
| Juneau AK | 81 | 1.91 | 1.10 | 34.1 |
| Jefferson City MO | 81 | 1.95 | 1.11 | 34.1 |
| Indianapolis IN | 81 | 1.98 | 0.52 | 34.1 |
| Harrisburg PA | 80 | 1.99 | 1.14 | 33.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 81 | 2.02 | -0.22 | 34.1 |
| Bismarck ND | 81 | 2.06 | 1.64 | 34.1 |
| Nashville TN | 80 | 2.06 | -0.19 | 33.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 80 | 2.26 | -0.46 | 33.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 81 | 2.27 | -0.99 | 34.1 |
| Richmond VA | 80 | 2.29 | 1.86 | 33.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 81 | 2.30 | -1.51 | 34.1 |
| Pierre SD | 80 | 2.51 | 2.49 | 33.9 |
| Springfield IL | 81 | 2.60 | 2.26 | 34.1 |
| Topeka KS | 81 | 2.69 | 2.62 | 34.1 |
| Saint Paul MN | 81 | 2.75 | 2.48 | 34.1 |
| Salem OR | 80 | 2.88 | 2.30 | 33.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 81 | 2.91 | 2.57 | 34.1 |
| Santa Fe NM | 81 | 2.94 | -1.43 | 34.1 |
| Charleston WV | 80 | 2.99 | 2.99 | 33.9 |
| Dover DE | 81 | 3.07 | 0.88 | 34.1 |
| Helena MT | 81 | 3.10 | 2.01 | 34.1 |
| Denver CO | 81 | 3.12 | 2.53 | 34.1 |
| Boise ID | 81 | 3.22 | 1.52 | 34.1 |
| Lansing MI | 81 | 3.26 | 2.89 | 34.1 |
| Olympia WA | 80 | 3.27 | 0.38 | 33.9 |
| Carson City NV | 81 | 3.28 | 2.35 | 34.1 |
| Providence RI | 80 | 3.46 | 3.34 | 33.9 |
| Hartford CT | 81 | 3.47 | 2.65 | 34.1 |
| Columbia SC | 80 | 3.48 | -3.40 | 33.9 |
| Austin TX | 80 | 3.50 | 2.70 | 33.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 80 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 33.9 |
| Augusta ME | 81 | 3.81 | 1.59 | 34.1 |
| Boston MA | 81 | 3.85 | 3.28 | 34.1 |
| Phoenix AZ | 81 | 3.94 | 2.68 | 34.1 |
| Lincoln NE | 81 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 34.1 |
| Concord NH | 81 | 5.00 | 4.36 | 34.1 |
| Montpelier VT | 80 | 5.00 | 2.08 | 33.9 |
| Albany NY | 81 | 5.07 | 4.11 | 34.1 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |