Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
8783
421632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
8734 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-21 13:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 175 1.31 0.10 41.6
Baton Rouge LA 175 1.36 0.50 41.6
Little Rock AR 175 1.70 -0.85 41.6
Honolulu HI 175 1.79 -0.87 41.6
Raleigh NC 175 1.83 0.38 41.6
Indianapolis IN 175 1.84 -0.06 41.6
Jefferson City MO 175 1.85 0.75 41.6
Sacramento CA 175 1.94 -0.61 41.6
Columbus OH 174 2.03 1.11 41.5
Madison WI 174 2.05 0.89 41.5
Frankfort KY 175 2.09 0.78 41.6
Juneau AK 175 2.12 0.07 41.6
Tallahassee FL 175 2.13 0.74 41.6
Saint Paul MN 175 2.15 1.79 41.6
Austin TX 174 2.20 1.11 41.5
Montgomery AL 175 2.21 -0.01 41.6
Cheyenne WY 174 2.22 0.51 41.5
Atlanta GA 175 2.23 0.14 41.6
Nashville TN 174 2.28 0.10 41.5
Richmond VA 174 2.30 1.48 41.5
Salem OR 174 2.33 1.47 41.5
Annapolis MD 175 2.35 0.86 41.6
Des Moines IA 175 2.39 1.67 41.6
Topeka KS 175 2.46 2.17 41.6
Springfield IL 175 2.53 2.24 41.6
Bismarck ND 175 2.56 2.07 41.6
Trenton NJ 175 2.59 1.99 41.6
Charleston WV 174 2.59 1.26 41.5
Hartford CT 175 2.73 1.61 41.6
Boise ID 175 2.78 1.63 41.6
Denver CO 175 2.80 1.50 41.6
Salt Lake City UT 174 2.80 -1.25 41.5
Carson City NV 175 2.82 0.41 41.6
Lansing MI 175 2.83 1.99 41.6
Dover DE 175 2.93 1.02 41.6
Olympia WA 174 2.97 0.75 41.5
Harrisburg PA 174 3.01 1.93 41.5
Providence RI 174 3.01 2.24 41.5
Columbia SC 174 3.07 -2.74 41.5
Augusta ME 175 3.13 1.27 41.6
Boston MA 175 3.39 2.22 41.6
Santa Fe NM 175 3.39 -1.49 41.6
Lincoln NE 175 3.49 3.39 41.6
Oklahoma City OK 174 3.52 2.94 41.5
Helena MT 175 3.61 2.97 41.6
Pierre SD 174 3.62 3.54 41.5
Albany NY 175 3.67 2.69 41.6
Concord NH 175 3.73 2.61 41.6
Phoenix AZ 175 4.12 1.40 41.6
Montpelier VT 174 4.16 1.43 41.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Montgomery AL 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 05:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 50.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 06:00 MST Phoenix AZ 88.0°F 83.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Little Rock AR 83.0°F 87.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 06:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 69.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 07:00 MDT Denver CO 72.0°F 67.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Hartford CT 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Atlanta GA 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 03:00 HST Honolulu HI 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 07:00 MDT Boise ID 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Springfield IL 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Des Moines IA 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Frankfort KY 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Augusta ME 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Jackson MS 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 07:00 MDT Helena MT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Lincoln NE 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 06:00 PDT Carson City NV 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Concord NH 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 07:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Raleigh NC 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Bismarck ND 66.0°F 62.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Columbus OH 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 08:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 06:00 PDT Salem OR 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 09:00 EDT Columbia SC 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0