Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.37 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.70 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.94 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.01 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.04 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.15 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.32 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.34 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.38 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.43 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.43 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.47 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.53 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.58 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.58 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.68 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.68 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.71 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.73 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.75 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.75 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.77 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.82 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.87 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.88 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.93 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.95 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.96 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.96 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.98 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.98 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.05 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.09 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.18 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.27 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.30 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.30 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.37 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.40 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 3.43 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.51 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.56 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.65 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.68 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 3.69 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 3.71 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.81 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.95 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 4.00 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 4.52 | 3.54 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 60.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 34.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 62.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |