Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.25 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.57 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 1.79 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.80 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 1.88 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 1.90 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.93 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.96 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.06 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.07 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.10 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.11 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.11 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.12 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.21 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.24 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.25 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.28 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.31 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.31 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.32 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.34 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.40 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.45 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.49 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.53 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.53 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.57 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.62 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.71 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.76 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.77 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.84 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.91 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.95 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.96 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.98 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.05 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.07 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.09 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.09 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.22 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.24 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.25 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.37 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 3.47 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.51 | -2.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.66 | 3.55 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.67 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.75 | -2.91 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 101.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 78.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 75.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |