Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.53 | 0.40 | 45.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.70 | -0.74 | 45.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.78 | -0.18 | 45.5 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.88 | 0.61 | 45.4 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.90 | -1.21 | 45.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 1.90 | 1.08 | 45.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 1.96 | 0.38 | 45.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.10 | 0.04 | 45.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.17 | 0.70 | 45.5 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.22 | 1.25 | 45.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.24 | -0.63 | 45.5 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.25 | 1.30 | 45.4 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.29 | -0.01 | 45.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.29 | 1.93 | 45.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.35 | 1.37 | 45.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.37 | 1.13 | 45.5 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.41 | 0.39 | 45.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.42 | 0.12 | 45.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.43 | 0.49 | 45.4 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.51 | 1.60 | 45.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.57 | 1.21 | 45.5 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.60 | 0.78 | 45.4 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.63 | 1.23 | 45.5 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.64 | 0.97 | 45.4 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.67 | 0.73 | 45.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.68 | 2.05 | 45.5 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.69 | 1.83 | 45.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.70 | 2.25 | 45.5 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.80 | 2.55 | 45.5 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.84 | 1.91 | 45.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.84 | 1.56 | 45.4 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.85 | 1.86 | 45.5 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.86 | 1.79 | 45.4 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.88 | 2.67 | 45.5 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.93 | 0.98 | 45.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.94 | -1.37 | 45.4 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.95 | -2.58 | 45.4 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.09 | 1.19 | 45.5 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.13 | 1.00 | 45.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.28 | -1.40 | 45.5 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 3.28 | 2.24 | 45.5 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 3.31 | 1.97 | 45.5 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.32 | -0.32 | 45.4 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.34 | 2.93 | 45.4 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.46 | 2.61 | 45.5 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.53 | 2.31 | 45.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.61 | 1.05 | 45.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.85 | 0.92 | 45.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 4.21 | 4.11 | 45.5 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 4.23 | 4.15 | 45.4 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 100.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 81.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 98.0°F | 94.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 92.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 65.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |