Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.64 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.65 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.72 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.76 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 1.78 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.98 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.02 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.03 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.06 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.09 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.10 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.13 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.13 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.17 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.26 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.27 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.27 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.29 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.29 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.33 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.35 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.40 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.43 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.45 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.46 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.47 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.49 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.54 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.55 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.60 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.65 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.69 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.69 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.71 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.80 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.82 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.86 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.91 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.95 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.04 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.29 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.30 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.50 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 3.55 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.70 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.76 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.81 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.87 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.90 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 14:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 MST | Denver CO | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 MST | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 MST | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 48.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 PST | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 65.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 16:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 15:00 PST | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 EST | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |