Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 62 | 1.00 | 0.48 | 29.8 |
| Columbus OH | 61 | 1.23 | 0.67 | 29.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 62 | 1.24 | -0.34 | 29.8 |
| Raleigh NC | 62 | 1.26 | -0.10 | 29.8 |
| Cheyenne WY | 61 | 1.38 | 0.23 | 29.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 62 | 1.39 | 0.45 | 29.8 |
| Jackson MS | 62 | 1.42 | -0.35 | 29.8 |
| Jefferson City MO | 62 | 1.45 | 0.35 | 29.8 |
| Annapolis MD | 62 | 1.63 | 0.40 | 29.8 |
| Juneau AK | 62 | 1.69 | 1.02 | 29.8 |
| Little Rock AR | 62 | 1.69 | 0.47 | 29.8 |
| Harrisburg PA | 61 | 1.75 | 0.84 | 29.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 62 | 1.82 | -0.15 | 29.8 |
| Indianapolis IN | 62 | 1.85 | 1.08 | 29.8 |
| Nashville TN | 61 | 1.89 | 0.11 | 29.5 |
| Madison WI | 61 | 1.90 | 1.21 | 29.5 |
| Topeka KS | 62 | 1.92 | 1.82 | 29.8 |
| Frankfort KY | 62 | 2.00 | 0.42 | 29.8 |
| Sacramento CA | 62 | 2.05 | -0.69 | 29.8 |
| Des Moines IA | 62 | 2.05 | 0.63 | 29.8 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 61 | 2.16 | -0.07 | 29.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 62 | 2.18 | 2.18 | 29.8 |
| Atlanta GA | 62 | 2.29 | -2.03 | 29.8 |
| Richmond VA | 61 | 2.30 | 1.93 | 29.5 |
| Springfield IL | 62 | 2.40 | 2.05 | 29.8 |
| Salem OR | 61 | 2.44 | 1.95 | 29.5 |
| Lansing MI | 62 | 2.60 | 2.11 | 29.8 |
| Helena MT | 62 | 2.63 | 1.21 | 29.8 |
| Pierre SD | 61 | 2.64 | 2.61 | 29.5 |
| Boise ID | 62 | 2.66 | 1.37 | 29.8 |
| Dover DE | 62 | 2.69 | 0.73 | 29.8 |
| Trenton NJ | 62 | 2.84 | 2.39 | 29.8 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 61 | 2.93 | 1.33 | 29.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 62 | 3.02 | -1.34 | 29.8 |
| Denver CO | 62 | 3.10 | 2.55 | 29.8 |
| Charleston WV | 61 | 3.16 | 3.16 | 29.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 62 | 3.32 | 3.16 | 29.8 |
| Olympia WA | 61 | 3.34 | -0.07 | 29.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 62 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 29.8 |
| Columbia SC | 61 | 3.39 | -3.39 | 29.5 |
| Austin TX | 61 | 3.51 | 3.05 | 29.5 |
| Hartford CT | 62 | 3.56 | 2.53 | 29.8 |
| Phoenix AZ | 62 | 3.63 | 2.53 | 29.8 |
| Providence RI | 61 | 4.02 | 3.95 | 29.5 |
| Carson City NV | 62 | 4.03 | 3.13 | 29.8 |
| Boston MA | 62 | 4.18 | 3.50 | 29.8 |
| Augusta ME | 62 | 4.26 | 2.48 | 29.8 |
| Concord NH | 62 | 4.92 | 4.24 | 29.8 |
| Albany NY | 62 | 5.24 | 4.02 | 29.8 |
| Montpelier VT | 61 | 5.46 | 2.90 | 29.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 82.0°F | 70.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 96.0°F | 88.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 82.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 83.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 95.0°F | 89.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 63.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |