Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.57 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.67 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.74 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.80 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.84 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 1.89 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.00 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.00 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.03 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.07 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.09 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.11 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.12 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.14 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.16 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.27 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.28 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.34 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.34 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.38 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.38 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.41 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.45 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.45 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.49 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.57 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.58 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.60 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.61 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.62 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.63 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.75 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.76 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.77 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.80 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.80 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.89 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.93 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.94 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.96 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.96 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.01 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.17 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.29 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 3.42 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 3.47 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.57 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.62 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.76 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 4.15 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 04:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 MST | Denver CO | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 55.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 MST | Boise ID | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 MST | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 28.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 PST | Carson City NV | 34.0°F | 34.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 54.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 06:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 36.0°F | 37.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 55.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 05:00 PST | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 EST | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |