Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.32 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.48 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.51 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.90 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.97 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.99 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.00 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.01 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.11 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.13 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.14 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.16 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.16 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.17 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.17 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.21 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.25 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.30 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.31 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.32 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.33 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.33 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.34 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.36 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.40 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.41 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.43 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.55 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.55 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.56 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.59 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.64 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.66 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.73 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.78 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.81 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.08 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.10 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 3.14 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.16 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.20 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.33 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.64 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.74 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 3.88 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.99 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 4.04 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 4.13 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 4.19 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 5.98 | 3.78 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |