Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
11133
534432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.75°
9050 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-23 12:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 181 1.43 -0.02 47.8
Jackson MS 181 1.61 0.71 47.9
Little Rock AR 181 1.66 -0.77 47.9
Indianapolis IN 181 1.73 -0.38 47.9
Atlanta GA 181 1.87 0.70 47.9
Honolulu HI 181 1.87 -1.54 47.9
Baton Rouge LA 181 2.15 1.36 47.9
Raleigh NC 181 2.18 -0.03 47.9
Columbus OH 181 2.29 1.35 47.8
Providence RI 181 2.30 1.04 47.8
Tallahassee FL 181 2.31 0.87 47.9
Hartford CT 181 2.38 0.66 47.9
Saint Paul MN 181 2.38 2.05 47.9
Charleston WV 181 2.38 0.22 47.8
Frankfort KY 181 2.41 1.33 47.9
Juneau AK 181 2.42 0.06 47.9
Jefferson City MO 181 2.46 1.41 47.9
Nashville TN 181 2.47 0.15 47.8
Madison WI 181 2.50 1.50 47.8
Cheyenne WY 181 2.50 0.49 47.8
Montgomery AL 181 2.52 0.45 47.9
Augusta ME 181 2.59 0.61 47.9
Trenton NJ 181 2.61 1.23 47.9
Carson City NV 181 2.69 0.35 47.9
Des Moines IA 181 2.70 2.09 47.9
Annapolis MD 181 2.71 1.09 47.9
Sacramento CA 181 2.81 0.31 47.9
Albany NY 181 2.83 1.90 47.9
Richmond VA 181 2.86 1.84 47.8
Columbia SC 181 2.89 -2.50 47.8
Boston MA 181 2.91 1.50 47.9
Springfield IL 181 2.93 2.77 47.9
Harrisburg PA 181 2.94 1.44 47.8
Topeka KS 181 2.96 2.69 47.9
Lansing MI 181 2.96 2.06 47.9
Salt Lake City UT 181 2.97 -1.40 47.8
Bismarck ND 181 3.13 2.65 47.9
Dover DE 181 3.16 0.70 47.9
Concord NH 181 3.18 1.81 47.9
Boise ID 181 3.26 2.25 47.9
Salem OR 181 3.27 1.41 47.8
Helena MT 181 3.31 2.28 47.9
Denver CO 181 3.34 1.38 47.9
Santa Fe NM 181 3.40 -0.73 47.9
Oklahoma City OK 181 3.41 3.22 47.8
Montpelier VT 181 3.55 0.85 47.8
Olympia WA 181 3.67 -0.15 47.8
Phoenix AZ 181 3.69 1.09 47.9
Lincoln NE 181 4.33 4.19 47.9
Pierre SD 181 4.55 4.44 47.8

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Montgomery AL 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 04:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 05:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Little Rock AR 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 05:00 PDT Sacramento CA 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 06:00 MDT Denver CO 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Hartford CT 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Dover DE 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 02:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 06:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Springfield IL 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 58.0°F 61.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Des Moines IA 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Topeka KS 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Frankfort KY 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Annapolis MD 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Lansing MI 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 06:00 MDT Helena MT 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Lincoln NE 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 05:00 PDT Carson City NV 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Concord NH 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Trenton NJ 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 06:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Albany NY 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Bismarck ND 63.0°F 55.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Columbus OH 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 07:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 05:00 PDT Salem OR 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-23 08:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 81.0°F -6.0° 48.0