Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.22 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 168 | 1.55 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 168 | 1.94 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.06 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.12 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 168 | 2.29 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 168 | 2.37 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 168 | 2.41 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 168 | 2.52 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.53 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 168 | 2.54 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.55 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.57 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 168 | 2.65 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 168 | 2.65 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 168 | 2.66 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 168 | 2.68 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.69 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.70 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.73 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.80 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 168 | 2.81 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 168 | 2.88 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 168 | 2.93 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 168 | 2.95 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.97 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 168 | 2.97 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 168 | 2.98 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.00 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 3.04 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 168 | 3.05 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.09 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 168 | 3.12 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 168 | 3.13 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 3.15 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 168 | 3.15 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 168 | 3.16 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 168 | 3.17 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.31 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.33 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 168 | 3.57 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 3.75 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.95 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 168 | 4.02 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 168 | 4.08 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 4.13 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 168 | 4.68 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 168 | 4.85 | 4.68 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 168 | 4.98 | 3.96 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 168 | 5.93 | 4.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 71.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 62.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |