Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.39 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.53 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.67 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.70 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 1.84 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.87 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.87 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.89 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 1.93 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.97 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.98 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.12 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.15 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.22 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.24 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.27 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.27 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.30 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.35 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.36 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.36 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.40 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.41 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.41 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.44 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.47 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.47 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.49 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.50 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.54 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.57 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.61 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.63 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.73 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.73 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.90 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.95 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 3.03 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.05 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.10 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 3.18 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.19 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.33 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.41 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.86 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.90 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.94 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 4.03 | 3.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 4.09 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 4.73 | 3.38 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Hartford CT | 35.0°F | 34.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 36.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Augusta ME | 31.0°F | 34.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Boston MA | 37.0°F | 41.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Concord NH | 28.0°F | 27.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Albany NY | 35.0°F | 33.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 38.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Providence RI | 36.0°F | 38.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 EST | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |