Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.25 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.84 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.91 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.08 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.15 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.27 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.27 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.34 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.45 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.46 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.46 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.49 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.50 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.53 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.57 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.58 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.63 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.64 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.67 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.71 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.73 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.76 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.77 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.81 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.85 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.86 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.89 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.89 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.90 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.94 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.95 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.95 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.04 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.05 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 3.06 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 3.07 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.08 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.26 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.32 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 3.33 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.43 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 3.57 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.70 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 3.83 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.84 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.97 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 4.37 | 4.13 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 4.41 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 4.75 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 5.55 | 4.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 74.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 66.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 78.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |