Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.47 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.56 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 1.63 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.67 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.71 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.75 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.78 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.94 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.00 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.03 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.09 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.11 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.14 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.22 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.23 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.24 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.28 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.32 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.36 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.39 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.40 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.48 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.49 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.53 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.54 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.57 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.58 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.59 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.64 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.67 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.68 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.72 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.93 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.96 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.98 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.99 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 3.02 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.13 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 3.23 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 3.27 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.27 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 3.37 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.47 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.47 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 3.51 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.69 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 4.01 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 4.16 | 3.23 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 4.21 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 4.84 | 3.89 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 56.0°F | +19.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |