Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.36 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.51 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 1.63 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.71 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.84 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 1.87 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 1.98 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.01 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.01 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.14 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.15 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.15 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.16 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.18 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.19 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.19 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.20 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.24 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.25 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.25 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.29 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.42 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.47 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.50 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.52 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.52 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.56 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.57 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.62 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.65 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.67 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.67 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.70 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.86 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.88 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.88 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.94 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.95 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.97 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 3.04 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.11 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.13 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.14 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.25 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 3.29 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.30 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.38 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.41 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.47 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 3.84 | 3.19 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 100.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |