Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.29 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.31 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 1.56 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 1.66 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 1.71 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.77 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 1.79 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.80 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 1.95 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.95 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.97 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.07 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.22 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.25 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.28 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.28 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.40 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.46 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.51 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.52 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.55 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.55 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.55 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.59 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.61 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.64 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.68 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.71 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.71 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.73 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.80 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.86 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.88 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.88 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.90 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.94 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.96 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.97 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.99 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.06 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.09 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 3.14 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.24 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.30 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.42 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.53 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.66 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.66 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 4.12 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 4.23 | -3.57 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 98.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 80.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 75.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 85.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 80.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |