Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.35 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 1.86 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.87 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.93 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.93 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.18 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.21 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.34 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.39 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.42 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.45 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.46 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.48 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.50 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.53 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.56 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.62 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.64 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.66 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.72 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.76 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.83 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.85 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.85 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.92 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.98 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.98 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.06 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 3.11 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.12 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.18 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.26 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 3.27 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.29 | -2.70 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.31 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.32 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.41 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 3.51 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.68 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 3.75 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 3.77 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.78 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.79 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.92 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 4.13 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 4.23 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 4.34 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 4.37 | 3.95 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 4.96 | 4.37 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 6.29 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 82.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |