Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.21 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.55 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.80 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 1.80 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 1.88 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 1.88 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.94 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.97 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.01 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.01 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.12 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.12 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.12 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.12 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.19 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.24 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.24 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.30 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.30 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.34 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.34 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.35 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.37 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.45 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.45 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.53 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.56 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.57 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.62 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.73 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.73 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.74 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.84 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.92 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.95 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.96 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 3.01 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.04 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.09 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.09 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.10 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.24 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.26 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.27 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.38 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 3.45 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.53 | -2.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.70 | 3.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.70 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.76 | -2.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 104.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 80.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |