Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 71 | 1.15 | 0.65 | 32.1 |
| Raleigh NC | 71 | 1.17 | -0.04 | 32.1 |
| Columbus OH | 70 | 1.30 | 0.76 | 31.9 |
| Jackson MS | 71 | 1.37 | -0.21 | 32.1 |
| Honolulu HI | 71 | 1.46 | 0.17 | 32.1 |
| Cheyenne WY | 70 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 31.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 71 | 1.56 | 0.21 | 32.1 |
| Tallahassee FL | 71 | 1.61 | 0.23 | 32.1 |
| Juneau AK | 71 | 1.65 | 0.72 | 32.1 |
| Madison WI | 70 | 1.77 | 1.14 | 31.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 71 | 1.83 | 1.01 | 32.1 |
| Little Rock AR | 71 | 1.86 | 0.03 | 32.1 |
| Harrisburg PA | 70 | 1.86 | 0.91 | 31.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 71 | 1.92 | 0.54 | 32.1 |
| Nashville TN | 70 | 1.99 | 0.13 | 31.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 71 | 2.03 | 0.68 | 32.1 |
| Jefferson City MO | 71 | 2.04 | 1.08 | 32.1 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 70 | 2.04 | 0.01 | 31.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 71 | 2.15 | -0.24 | 32.1 |
| Bismarck ND | 71 | 2.15 | 1.70 | 32.1 |
| Montgomery AL | 71 | 2.20 | -0.73 | 32.1 |
| Atlanta GA | 71 | 2.35 | -1.45 | 32.1 |
| Richmond VA | 70 | 2.39 | 2.07 | 31.9 |
| Pierre SD | 70 | 2.64 | 2.61 | 31.9 |
| Dover DE | 71 | 2.77 | 0.30 | 32.1 |
| Topeka KS | 71 | 2.86 | 2.77 | 32.1 |
| Springfield IL | 71 | 2.87 | 2.56 | 32.1 |
| Trenton NJ | 71 | 2.89 | 2.49 | 32.1 |
| Salem OR | 70 | 2.99 | 2.56 | 31.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 71 | 3.03 | 2.83 | 32.1 |
| Helena MT | 71 | 3.04 | 1.80 | 32.1 |
| Santa Fe NM | 71 | 3.06 | -1.45 | 32.1 |
| Charleston WV | 70 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 31.9 |
| Lansing MI | 71 | 3.13 | 2.70 | 32.1 |
| Boise ID | 71 | 3.18 | 1.97 | 32.1 |
| Denver CO | 71 | 3.20 | 2.69 | 32.1 |
| Hartford CT | 71 | 3.37 | 2.44 | 32.1 |
| Olympia WA | 70 | 3.54 | 0.57 | 31.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 71 | 3.55 | 2.11 | 32.1 |
| Carson City NV | 71 | 3.58 | 2.68 | 32.1 |
| Columbia SC | 70 | 3.59 | -3.59 | 31.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 70 | 3.67 | 2.27 | 31.9 |
| Austin TX | 70 | 3.74 | 3.34 | 31.9 |
| Providence RI | 70 | 3.80 | 3.74 | 31.9 |
| Augusta ME | 71 | 3.97 | 2.17 | 32.1 |
| Lincoln NE | 71 | 4.15 | 4.15 | 32.1 |
| Boston MA | 71 | 4.23 | 3.61 | 32.1 |
| Concord NH | 71 | 5.15 | 4.56 | 32.1 |
| Montpelier VT | 70 | 5.21 | 2.76 | 31.9 |
| Albany NY | 71 | 5.41 | 4.34 | 32.1 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 84.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 78.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |