Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.55 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.57 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.62 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.74 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 1.76 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.87 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.93 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.01 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.05 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.05 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.06 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.08 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.09 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.09 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.15 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.28 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.29 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.29 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.29 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.29 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.30 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.34 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.43 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.46 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.47 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.47 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.48 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.56 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.58 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.58 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.59 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.64 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.71 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.75 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.76 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.77 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.83 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.84 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.88 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.93 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.08 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.22 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.36 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.38 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 3.43 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.59 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.71 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.78 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 3.90 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.92 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 06:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 MST | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 62.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 42.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 MST | Boise ID | 36.0°F | 35.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 MST | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 40.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 PST | Carson City NV | 28.0°F | 32.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 54.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 PST | Salem OR | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 EST | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |