Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.30 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.53 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 1.65 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 1.73 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 1.83 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 1.88 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.97 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 1.98 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.06 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.09 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.12 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.13 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.16 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.16 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.16 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.17 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.19 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.25 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.27 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.31 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.35 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.40 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.47 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.49 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.51 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.54 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.55 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.60 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.60 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.65 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.68 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.72 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.72 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.87 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.88 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.90 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.91 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.94 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.97 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.03 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 3.08 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 3.12 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.16 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.22 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.27 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.30 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.31 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.50 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.51 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 3.87 | 3.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 110.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 94.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 72.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 92.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |