Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.13 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.44 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.54 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.90 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 1.97 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.00 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.02 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.08 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.12 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.16 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.17 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.21 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.22 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.31 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.33 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.34 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.34 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.38 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.38 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.39 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.39 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.40 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.42 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.44 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.48 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.49 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.53 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.55 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.58 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.72 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.76 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.76 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.81 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.92 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.93 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.00 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.06 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 3.09 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.11 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.14 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 3.14 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.26 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.32 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.38 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.42 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.51 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.71 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.88 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 4.26 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 4.48 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 59.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 55.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 49.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 57.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 50.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 54.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |