Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.44 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.51 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.73 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 1.81 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.87 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.95 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.02 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.06 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.13 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.17 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.22 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.35 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.39 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.42 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.45 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.45 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.46 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.47 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.47 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.51 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.57 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.63 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.65 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.70 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.72 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.74 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.76 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.81 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.88 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.97 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.01 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.02 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 3.04 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 3.06 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.19 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.21 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.24 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.25 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.27 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 3.28 | -3.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.30 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 3.32 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 3.35 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.43 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.66 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.70 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 3.91 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.98 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 4.16 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 4.23 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 34.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 51.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 51.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 48.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 55.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |