Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
18283
877632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
9000 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-29 11:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 180 1.37 -0.86 48.0
Providence RI 180 1.56 -0.60 48.0
Boston MA 180 1.80 0.94 48.0
Jackson MS 180 1.84 1.23 48.0
Little Rock AR 180 1.88 0.12 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 180 1.88 1.45 48.0
Trenton NJ 180 1.90 0.12 48.0
Augusta ME 180 1.96 -1.05 48.0
Richmond VA 180 2.03 0.09 48.0
Hartford CT 180 2.12 -0.64 48.0
Charleston WV 180 2.16 0.22 48.0
Atlanta GA 180 2.18 0.44 48.0
Harrisburg PA 180 2.18 -0.14 48.0
Helena MT 180 2.19 0.55 48.0
Albany NY 180 2.21 0.12 48.0
Concord NH 180 2.22 0.18 48.0
Tallahassee FL 180 2.27 0.02 48.0
Austin TX 180 2.29 1.90 48.0
Lansing MI 180 2.34 1.45 48.0
Carson City NV 180 2.34 1.06 48.0
Columbus OH 180 2.39 1.92 48.0
Annapolis MD 180 2.40 0.98 48.0
Jefferson City MO 180 2.47 0.49 48.0
Montgomery AL 180 2.53 0.95 48.0
Juneau AK 180 2.54 0.78 48.0
Dover DE 180 2.56 0.44 48.0
Raleigh NC 180 2.59 1.10 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 180 2.64 -0.67 48.0
Springfield IL 180 2.66 2.18 48.0
Des Moines IA 180 2.67 -0.06 48.0
Nashville TN 180 2.69 0.49 48.0
Sacramento CA 180 2.70 2.11 48.0
Indianapolis IN 180 2.70 1.61 48.0
Santa Fe NM 180 2.94 -0.14 48.0
Columbia SC 180 2.95 -0.98 48.0
Saint Paul MN 180 2.96 1.82 48.0
Montpelier VT 180 2.99 1.68 48.0
Phoenix AZ 180 3.04 -0.44 48.0
Salem OR 180 3.07 1.64 48.0
Madison WI 180 3.14 1.38 48.0
Topeka KS 180 3.15 1.05 48.0
Lincoln NE 180 3.16 0.89 48.0
Olympia WA 180 3.21 -1.42 48.0
Cheyenne WY 180 3.21 0.28 48.0
Boise ID 180 3.23 2.59 48.0
Denver CO 180 3.64 1.55 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 180 3.75 3.34 48.0
Frankfort KY 180 3.83 3.44 48.0
Bismarck ND 180 4.00 3.27 48.0
Pierre SD 180 4.22 3.06 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 03:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 04:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 94.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Little Rock AR 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 04:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 05:00 MDT Denver CO 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Hartford CT 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Atlanta GA 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 05:00 MDT Boise ID 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Springfield IL 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Des Moines IA 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Topeka KS 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Frankfort KY 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 67.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 05:00 MDT Helena MT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Lincoln NE 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 04:00 PDT Carson City NV 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Concord NH 62.0°F 68.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Trenton NJ 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 05:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Albany NY 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Bismarck ND 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Columbus OH 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 06:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 04:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Providence RI 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 07:00 EDT Columbia SC 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0