Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
12353
592992 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.70°
9070 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-24 12:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 181 1.49 0.18 48.0
Little Rock AR 182 1.69 -0.86 48.0
Indianapolis IN 182 1.77 -0.86 48.0
Jackson MS 181 1.78 1.08 48.0
Honolulu HI 182 1.90 -1.42 48.0
Atlanta GA 182 1.97 0.46 48.0
Providence RI 181 2.06 0.60 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 182 2.15 1.45 48.0
Charleston WV 181 2.15 -0.23 48.0
Hartford CT 182 2.17 0.30 48.0
Raleigh NC 181 2.23 0.14 48.0
Columbus OH 181 2.23 1.22 48.0
Trenton NJ 181 2.25 0.72 48.0
Augusta ME 181 2.28 0.10 48.0
Saint Paul MN 181 2.30 1.93 48.0
Nashville TN 181 2.37 -0.13 48.0
Frankfort KY 182 2.38 1.59 48.0
Jefferson City MO 181 2.39 1.37 48.0
Juneau AK 182 2.47 0.24 48.0
Tallahassee FL 182 2.47 0.59 48.0
Albany NY 181 2.47 1.40 48.0
Lansing MI 181 2.57 1.62 48.0
Montgomery AL 182 2.60 0.40 48.0
Boston MA 182 2.62 1.23 48.0
Annapolis MD 182 2.66 1.10 48.0
Carson City NV 181 2.67 0.18 48.0
Richmond VA 181 2.68 1.20 48.0
Madison WI 181 2.71 1.83 48.0
Des Moines IA 182 2.72 2.05 48.0
Concord NH 181 2.75 1.15 48.0
Cheyenne WY 181 2.78 0.74 48.0
Springfield IL 182 2.85 2.69 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 181 2.86 -1.46 48.0
Topeka KS 182 2.92 2.63 48.0
Sacramento CA 182 2.93 0.44 48.0
Columbia SC 181 2.98 -2.60 48.0
Dover DE 182 2.99 0.58 48.0
Harrisburg PA 181 3.04 1.50 48.0
Montpelier VT 181 3.10 0.76 48.0
Salem OR 181 3.15 1.23 48.0
Helena MT 181 3.27 2.55 48.0
Santa Fe NM 181 3.27 -0.71 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 181 3.29 3.09 48.0
Denver CO 182 3.39 1.45 48.0
Olympia WA 181 3.39 -0.15 48.0
Boise ID 182 3.48 2.74 48.0
Bismarck ND 181 3.48 3.05 48.0
Phoenix AZ 182 3.79 0.37 48.0
Lincoln NE 181 3.92 3.46 48.0
Pierre SD 181 4.95 4.84 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-24 08:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 05:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 06:00 MST Phoenix AZ 94.0°F 98.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 CDT Little Rock AR 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 06:00 PDT Sacramento CA 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 07:00 MDT Denver CO 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 09:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 09:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 09:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 09:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 03:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 07:00 MDT Boise ID 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 CDT Springfield IL 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 09:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 CDT Des Moines IA 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 CDT Topeka KS 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 09:00 EDT Frankfort KY 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 09:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 09:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 07:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 04:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 05:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 99.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 07:00 CDT Little Rock AR 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 05:00 PDT Sacramento CA 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 06:00 MDT Denver CO 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 EDT Hartford CT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 EDT Dover DE 69.0°F 61.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 EDT Atlanta GA 73.0°F 78.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 02:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 06:00 MDT Boise ID 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 07:00 CDT Springfield IL 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 07:00 CDT Des Moines IA 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 07:00 CDT Topeka KS 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 EDT Frankfort KY 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 07:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 EDT Augusta ME 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 08:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0