Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
13383
642432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
8900 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-25 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 178 1.57 0.60 48.0
Indianapolis IN 178 1.65 -0.61 48.0
Jackson MS 178 1.76 1.04 48.0
Little Rock AR 178 1.81 -0.33 48.0
Honolulu HI 178 1.81 -1.41 48.0
Hartford CT 178 1.92 0.01 48.0
Atlanta GA 178 1.97 0.62 48.0
Trenton NJ 178 1.99 0.28 48.0
Providence RI 178 1.99 0.33 48.0
Charleston WV 178 2.04 -0.51 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 178 2.13 1.40 48.0
Augusta ME 178 2.22 0.25 48.0
Columbus OH 178 2.25 1.30 48.0
Nashville TN 178 2.25 -0.03 48.0
Tallahassee FL 178 2.26 0.53 48.0
Lansing MI 178 2.26 1.24 48.0
Albany NY 178 2.26 0.98 48.0
Raleigh NC 178 2.35 0.23 48.0
Jefferson City MO 178 2.36 1.29 48.0
Juneau AK 178 2.37 0.24 48.0
Frankfort KY 178 2.38 1.59 48.0
Saint Paul MN 178 2.43 2.09 48.0
Concord NH 178 2.52 0.84 48.0
Boston MA 178 2.56 1.06 48.0
Montgomery AL 178 2.57 1.11 48.0
Annapolis MD 178 2.58 0.84 48.0
Richmond VA 178 2.60 0.72 48.0
Dover DE 178 2.61 0.26 48.0
Topeka KS 178 2.68 2.31 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 178 2.69 -1.43 48.0
Springfield IL 178 2.79 2.63 48.0
Harrisburg PA 178 2.82 0.97 48.0
Madison WI 178 2.83 1.81 48.0
Des Moines IA 178 2.87 2.10 48.0
Carson City NV 178 2.87 0.35 48.0
Columbia SC 178 2.87 -2.11 48.0
Cheyenne WY 178 2.87 0.39 48.0
Salem OR 178 2.98 1.08 48.0
Sacramento CA 178 3.01 0.51 48.0
Montpelier VT 178 3.14 1.12 48.0
Helena MT 178 3.16 2.29 48.0
Boise ID 178 3.17 2.82 48.0
Santa Fe NM 178 3.17 -0.43 48.0
Phoenix AZ 178 3.39 -0.67 48.0
Olympia WA 178 3.42 -0.41 48.0
Denver CO 178 3.49 1.42 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 178 3.56 3.36 48.0
Bismarck ND 178 3.60 2.92 48.0
Lincoln NE 178 3.64 3.04 48.0
Pierre SD 178 5.10 4.47 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 48.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 103.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 03:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Dover DE 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-24 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 03:00 MDT Boise ID 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Boston MA 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 03:00 MDT Helena MT 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Concord NH 52.0°F 55.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Albany NY 56.0°F 59.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 02:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 62.0°F 67.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Providence RI 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0