Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.36 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.46 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 167 | 1.79 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 167 | 1.85 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.87 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 1.87 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 167 | 1.87 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 167 | 1.92 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 167 | 1.97 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.04 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.17 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 167 | 2.19 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.28 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.28 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.30 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 167 | 2.31 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 167 | 2.38 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 167 | 2.38 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.39 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.40 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.43 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 167 | 2.43 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.46 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 167 | 2.46 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.53 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 167 | 2.56 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.57 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 167 | 2.63 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 167 | 2.63 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 167 | 2.64 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 167 | 2.68 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.72 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 167 | 2.75 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.78 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 167 | 2.78 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 167 | 2.78 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.82 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 167 | 2.83 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 167 | 2.83 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 167 | 2.88 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 167 | 2.88 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.02 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 167 | 3.10 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 167 | 3.23 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 167 | 3.24 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.39 | 3.04 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 167 | 3.68 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 167 | 3.74 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 167 | 4.42 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 167 | 4.50 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 60.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 62.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |