Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.14 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.46 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.53 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.87 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.97 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.04 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.08 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.18 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.19 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.20 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.21 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.27 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.30 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.30 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.31 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.32 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.33 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.37 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.45 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.46 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.47 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.48 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.51 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.51 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.52 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.54 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.55 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.56 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.65 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.70 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.78 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.90 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.91 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.92 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 2.98 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 3.08 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.09 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.10 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 3.10 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 3.15 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.21 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 3.25 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.31 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.35 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.46 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.56 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.70 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.91 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 4.13 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 4.36 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 41.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 37.0°F | 42.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 44.0°F | 52.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 43.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 34.0°F | 39.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 48.0°F | 57.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 33.0°F | 30.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 41.0°F | 50.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 35.0°F | 41.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 43.0°F | 38.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 38.0°F | 46.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |