Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.33 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.52 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.53 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 1.59 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.65 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.75 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.83 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 1.96 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 1.97 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.99 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.06 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.06 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.09 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.15 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.15 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.26 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.29 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.34 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.36 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.37 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.42 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.44 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.46 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.47 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.51 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.59 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.65 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.70 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.71 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.73 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.76 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.82 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.86 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.95 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.96 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.98 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.01 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 3.19 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.35 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.35 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 3.36 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 3.38 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.45 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 3.46 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 3.52 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.52 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.89 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 4.16 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 4.37 | 3.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 4.59 | 3.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |