Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.59 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.66 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 1.76 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 1.85 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.86 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.89 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 1.93 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.98 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.03 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.04 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.13 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.13 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.21 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.21 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.21 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.21 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.26 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.27 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.32 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.33 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.35 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.36 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.41 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.44 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.46 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.57 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.60 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.66 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.68 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.73 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.78 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.84 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.87 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.90 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.92 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.95 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.98 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.05 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.06 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.15 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 3.20 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.21 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.29 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 3.30 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.34 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.34 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.46 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.47 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.53 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.65 | -2.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 105.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 74.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 90.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 97.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |