Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.12 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.27 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 1.48 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 1.55 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.68 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 1.80 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 1.85 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.86 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 1.97 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.99 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.10 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.13 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.16 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.23 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.27 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.34 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.35 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.35 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.39 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.44 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.55 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.55 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.59 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.59 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.60 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.61 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.64 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.65 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.65 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.68 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.70 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.70 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.77 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.79 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.81 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.84 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.88 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.03 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.07 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 3.12 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.18 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.21 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.22 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.22 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 3.25 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.47 | -3.23 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.47 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.57 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.85 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 4.20 | -3.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 95.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 58.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 54.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |