Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.59 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.64 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.76 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.77 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.80 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 1.91 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 1.95 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 1.96 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.97 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.02 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.10 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.18 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.22 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.24 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.25 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.27 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.28 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.32 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.34 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.35 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.42 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.43 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.51 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.53 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.55 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.56 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.57 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.57 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.64 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.69 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.75 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.80 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.82 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.85 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.85 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.85 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.87 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.96 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.96 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.12 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.13 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 3.16 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.20 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.36 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.41 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.52 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.57 | 3.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.58 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.63 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 5.03 | 4.32 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |