Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.35 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.43 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.71 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.84 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.98 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 1.99 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.01 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.17 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.18 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.21 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.22 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.25 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.26 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.27 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.28 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.29 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.29 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.32 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.34 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.35 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.36 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.36 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.39 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.40 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.42 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.46 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.51 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.58 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.61 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.64 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.65 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.73 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.74 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.80 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.87 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.99 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.99 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.02 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.02 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.03 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.14 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.50 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.52 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.56 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 3.67 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.89 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 4.10 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 4.15 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 4.19 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 5.80 | 3.36 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 73.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |