Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
73083
3508032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.59°
8600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-13 03:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 172 1.65 -0.69 48.0
Indianapolis IN 172 1.69 -0.21 48.0
Little Rock AR 172 1.79 0.21 48.0
Trenton NJ 172 1.81 -1.40 48.0
Albany NY 172 1.84 -0.60 48.0
Lansing MI 172 1.87 0.64 48.0
Jackson MS 172 1.88 0.51 48.0
Charleston WV 172 1.92 1.27 48.0
Jefferson City MO 172 1.93 0.27 48.0
Honolulu HI 172 1.95 -1.15 48.0
Annapolis MD 172 1.95 -1.16 48.0
Columbus OH 172 1.95 0.19 48.0
Sacramento CA 172 1.99 -0.23 48.0
Austin TX 172 2.01 0.59 48.0
Saint Paul MN 172 2.13 -0.52 48.0
Harrisburg PA 172 2.20 -1.19 48.0
Hartford CT 172 2.22 -0.96 48.0
Nashville TN 172 2.22 -0.45 48.0
Raleigh NC 172 2.23 -1.18 48.0
Augusta ME 172 2.34 -0.02 48.0
Salem OR 172 2.37 -0.52 48.0
Phoenix AZ 172 2.45 -1.64 48.0
Columbia SC 172 2.45 0.11 48.0
Providence RI 172 2.46 -2.01 48.0
Madison WI 172 2.49 0.36 48.0
Boise ID 172 2.57 -0.77 48.0
Bismarck ND 172 2.66 0.84 48.0
Atlanta GA 172 2.67 1.38 48.0
Cheyenne WY 172 2.68 0.87 48.0
Dover DE 172 2.77 -1.91 48.0
Frankfort KY 172 2.84 0.58 48.0
Des Moines IA 172 2.85 1.85 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 172 2.85 -1.38 48.0
Topeka KS 172 2.88 2.12 48.0
Boston MA 172 2.89 -1.08 48.0
Concord NH 172 2.90 0.34 48.0
Montgomery AL 172 2.98 0.73 48.0
Helena MT 172 3.05 -0.94 48.0
Lincoln NE 172 3.12 1.96 48.0
Carson City NV 172 3.12 -0.78 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 172 3.18 1.35 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 172 3.20 0.98 48.0
Tallahassee FL 172 3.32 0.04 48.0
Olympia WA 172 3.36 0.53 48.0
Montpelier VT 172 3.44 1.88 48.0
Pierre SD 172 3.47 2.48 48.0
Juneau AK 172 3.51 0.66 48.0
Denver CO 172 3.55 1.58 48.0
Springfield IL 172 3.76 2.72 48.0
Santa Fe NM 172 3.97 -3.09 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 20:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 97.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 20:00 PDT Sacramento CA 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 21:00 MDT Denver CO 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Hartford CT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 17:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 21:00 MDT Boise ID 73.0°F 80.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Springfield IL 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Des Moines IA 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Topeka KS 74.0°F 64.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Augusta ME 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Boston MA 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Jackson MS 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 21:00 MDT Helena MT 51.0°F 56.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Lincoln NE 68.0°F 61.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 20:00 PDT Carson City NV 67.0°F 73.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Concord NH 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 21:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Raleigh NC 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Bismarck ND 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 20:00 PDT Salem OR 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Providence RI 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 EDT Columbia SC 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0