Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 150 | 1.19 | 0.19 | 40.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 150 | 1.27 | 0.35 | 40.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 150 | 1.68 | -0.69 | 40.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 150 | 1.70 | 0.13 | 40.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 150 | 1.74 | -0.77 | 40.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 150 | 1.83 | -0.29 | 40.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 150 | 1.87 | -0.11 | 40.5 |
| Madison WI | 149 | 1.89 | 0.65 | 40.4 |
| Jefferson City MO | 150 | 1.94 | 0.81 | 40.5 |
| Juneau AK | 150 | 1.97 | 0.08 | 40.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 150 | 2.01 | 0.39 | 40.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 150 | 2.03 | 1.27 | 40.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 150 | 2.03 | 0.89 | 40.5 |
| Columbus OH | 149 | 2.03 | 1.50 | 40.4 |
| Cheyenne WY | 149 | 2.16 | 0.91 | 40.4 |
| Annapolis MD | 150 | 2.21 | 1.02 | 40.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 150 | 2.23 | 0.08 | 40.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 150 | 2.29 | 2.01 | 40.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 150 | 2.35 | 0.19 | 40.5 |
| Austin TX | 149 | 2.36 | 1.19 | 40.4 |
| Springfield IL | 150 | 2.39 | 2.05 | 40.5 |
| Nashville TN | 149 | 2.39 | 0.23 | 40.4 |
| Salem OR | 149 | 2.40 | 1.62 | 40.4 |
| Richmond VA | 149 | 2.46 | 1.67 | 40.4 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 149 | 2.48 | -0.67 | 40.4 |
| Charleston WV | 149 | 2.52 | 1.61 | 40.4 |
| Topeka KS | 150 | 2.71 | 2.57 | 40.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 150 | 2.71 | 2.32 | 40.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 150 | 2.71 | 2.21 | 40.5 |
| Denver CO | 150 | 2.81 | 2.00 | 40.5 |
| Carson City NV | 150 | 2.81 | 0.65 | 40.5 |
| Hartford CT | 150 | 2.89 | 1.92 | 40.5 |
| Lansing MI | 150 | 2.89 | 2.45 | 40.5 |
| Olympia WA | 149 | 2.99 | 1.06 | 40.4 |
| Boise ID | 150 | 3.03 | 1.84 | 40.5 |
| Providence RI | 149 | 3.05 | 2.44 | 40.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 149 | 3.06 | 2.52 | 40.4 |
| Columbia SC | 149 | 3.11 | -2.77 | 40.4 |
| Santa Fe NM | 150 | 3.27 | -1.25 | 40.5 |
| Dover DE | 150 | 3.28 | 1.21 | 40.5 |
| Boston MA | 150 | 3.36 | 2.32 | 40.5 |
| Augusta ME | 150 | 3.39 | 1.57 | 40.5 |
| Helena MT | 150 | 3.50 | 2.82 | 40.5 |
| Pierre SD | 149 | 3.63 | 3.54 | 40.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 150 | 3.65 | 3.59 | 40.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 149 | 3.68 | 3.01 | 40.4 |
| Albany NY | 150 | 3.89 | 3.25 | 40.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 150 | 3.96 | 1.40 | 40.5 |
| Concord NH | 150 | 4.08 | 3.15 | 40.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 149 | 4.36 | 1.85 | 40.4 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 44.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 92.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |