Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.38 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.49 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.61 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.70 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.82 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 1.87 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.90 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 1.91 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.92 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.94 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 1.99 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.05 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.12 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.16 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.22 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.23 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.29 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.32 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.33 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.35 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.38 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.39 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.39 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.46 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.48 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.48 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.53 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.53 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.55 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.56 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.57 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.61 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.63 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.70 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.73 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.85 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.88 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 3.00 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.03 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.03 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.15 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 3.22 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.25 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.33 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.80 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.83 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.83 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.95 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 4.07 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 4.52 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 MST | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 MST | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 MST | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 PST | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 10:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 11:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 PST | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 12:00 EST | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |