Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.61 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.63 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 1.73 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.80 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.82 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 1.97 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 1.97 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 1.99 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.04 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.06 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.07 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.11 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.14 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.15 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.21 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.26 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.29 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.30 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.32 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.36 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.37 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.41 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.44 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.46 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.50 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.52 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.55 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.57 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.62 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.66 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.67 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.73 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.77 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.79 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.80 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.80 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.83 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.89 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.91 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.95 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.95 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.96 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.21 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.29 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 3.38 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.41 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.60 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.70 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.70 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 4.06 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 MST | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 49.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 MST | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 49.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 MST | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 PST | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 38.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 13:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 PST | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 EST | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |