Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
883
42432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.59°
834 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-14 23:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Raleigh NC 17 0.76 -0.41 9.0
Annapolis MD 17 0.82 -0.12 9.0
Columbus OH 16 0.94 0.31 8.5
Richmond VA 16 0.94 0.44 8.5
Baton Rouge LA 17 1.06 0.82 9.0
Juneau AK 17 1.12 0.41 9.0
Honolulu HI 17 1.12 0.76 9.0
Pierre SD 16 1.13 1.00 8.5
Cheyenne WY 16 1.13 0.13 8.5
Nashville TN 16 1.19 -0.31 8.5
Charleston WV 16 1.50 1.50 8.5
Tallahassee FL 17 1.53 0.12 9.0
Frankfort KY 17 1.53 1.06 9.0
Jefferson City MO 17 1.59 1.24 9.0
Little Rock AR 17 1.65 -1.06 9.0
Bismarck ND 17 1.65 1.65 9.0
Madison WI 16 1.69 0.44 8.5
Salt Lake City UT 16 1.75 1.00 8.5
Indianapolis IN 17 1.76 0.71 9.0
Jackson MS 17 1.76 1.06 9.0
Springfield IL 17 1.82 1.24 9.0
Saint Paul MN 17 1.88 1.76 9.0
Oklahoma City OK 16 1.88 -1.38 8.5
Columbia SC 16 1.94 -1.94 8.5
Topeka KS 17 2.00 1.88 9.0
Des Moines IA 17 2.06 1.71 9.0
Sacramento CA 17 2.18 -2.18 9.0
Salem OR 16 2.19 1.19 8.5
Harrisburg PA 16 2.19 1.44 8.5
Trenton NJ 17 2.24 1.53 9.0
Lansing MI 17 2.47 2.12 9.0
Dover DE 17 2.53 1.47 9.0
Helena MT 17 2.53 1.47 9.0
Montgomery AL 17 2.76 1.71 9.0
Atlanta GA 17 2.82 -2.00 9.0
Lincoln NE 17 2.88 2.88 9.0
Providence RI 16 2.88 2.63 8.5
Hartford CT 17 3.06 2.00 9.0
Boston MA 17 3.29 3.06 9.0
Santa Fe NM 17 3.35 -1.24 9.0
Austin TX 16 3.81 3.81 8.5
Carson City NV 17 4.06 2.88 9.0
Denver CO 17 4.35 4.35 9.0
Boise ID 17 4.76 3.24 9.0
Olympia WA 16 4.94 0.81 8.5
Albany NY 17 5.53 4.47 9.0
Concord NH 17 5.76 4.00 9.0
Augusta ME 17 6.00 5.88 9.0
Montpelier VT 16 6.88 6.25 8.5
Phoenix AZ 17 7.53 7.53 9.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Montgomery AL 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 15:00 AKDT Juneau AK 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 16:00 MST Phoenix AZ 107.0°F 104.0°F +3.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 16:00 PDT Sacramento CA 100.0°F 103.0°F -3.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 17:00 MDT Denver CO 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Hartford CT 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Dover DE 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 13:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 17:00 MDT Boise ID 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Springfield IL 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Des Moines IA 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Topeka KS 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Frankfort KY 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Augusta ME 91.0°F 78.0°F +13.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Annapolis MD 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Boston MA 93.0°F 88.0°F +5.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Lansing MI 98.0°F 94.0°F +4.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 97.0°F 92.0°F +5.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 17:00 MDT Helena MT 90.0°F 82.0°F +8.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Lincoln NE 93.0°F 88.0°F +5.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 16:00 PDT Carson City NV 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Concord NH 95.0°F 85.0°F +10.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Trenton NJ 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 17:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Albany NY 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Raleigh NC 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Bismarck ND 98.0°F 98.0°F +0.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Columbus OH 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 16:00 PDT Salem OR 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Providence RI 91.0°F 84.0°F +7.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT Columbia SC 81.0°F 86.0°F -5.0° 16.0