Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.59 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.65 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 1.75 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.82 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.83 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 1.90 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 1.97 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 1.98 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.05 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.05 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.06 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.11 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.13 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.14 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.18 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.24 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.30 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.30 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.32 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.35 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.38 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.43 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.43 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.45 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.47 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.54 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.55 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.59 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.63 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.66 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.66 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.75 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.77 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.77 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.78 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.80 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.85 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.89 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.93 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.94 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.97 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.97 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.22 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.27 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 3.40 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 3.44 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.60 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.63 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.70 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 4.10 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 08:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 09:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 MST | Denver CO | 51.0°F | 42.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 MST | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 MST | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 09:00 PST | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 39.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 10:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 11:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 09:00 PST | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 12:00 EST | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |