Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.18 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.25 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 1.38 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 1.59 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.73 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 1.80 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.87 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 1.89 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.92 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 1.97 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.09 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.12 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.19 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.24 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.29 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.41 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.42 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.45 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.48 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.53 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.55 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.61 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.61 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.62 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.62 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.65 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.66 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.67 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.69 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.71 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.75 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.78 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.82 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.84 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.84 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.92 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.95 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 3.05 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.14 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.16 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.19 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.19 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.25 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 3.26 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 3.28 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.34 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.43 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 3.93 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 4.22 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 4.47 | -3.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 104.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 73.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 85.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 72.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 75.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 84.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |