Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.45 | 0.30 | 45.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.69 | -0.78 | 45.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.80 | -0.19 | 45.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 1.88 | 1.05 | 45.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.89 | -1.19 | 45.5 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.90 | 0.64 | 45.3 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 1.96 | 0.35 | 45.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.06 | 0.11 | 45.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.13 | -0.78 | 45.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.17 | 0.74 | 45.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.20 | 1.84 | 45.5 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.22 | 1.23 | 45.3 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.25 | 1.28 | 45.3 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.31 | 0.01 | 45.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.31 | 1.31 | 45.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.36 | 1.10 | 45.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.38 | 0.40 | 45.3 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.40 | 0.05 | 45.5 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.42 | 0.41 | 45.3 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.49 | 1.68 | 45.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.58 | 1.25 | 45.5 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.60 | 0.75 | 45.3 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.64 | 1.28 | 45.5 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.66 | 1.02 | 45.3 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.67 | 2.03 | 45.5 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.69 | 0.72 | 45.5 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.69 | 1.82 | 45.3 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.72 | 2.25 | 45.5 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.75 | 2.49 | 45.5 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.85 | 1.84 | 45.5 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.87 | 1.92 | 45.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.87 | 1.60 | 45.3 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.88 | 2.66 | 45.5 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.89 | 1.84 | 45.3 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.93 | 1.05 | 45.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.94 | -1.44 | 45.3 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.97 | -2.60 | 45.3 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.09 | 1.16 | 45.5 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.12 | 0.96 | 45.5 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.19 | -0.14 | 45.3 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.28 | -1.38 | 45.5 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 3.31 | 2.26 | 45.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.33 | 2.91 | 45.3 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 3.34 | 2.02 | 45.5 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.51 | 2.65 | 45.5 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.56 | 2.35 | 45.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.63 | 1.03 | 45.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.87 | 0.89 | 45.3 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 4.01 | 3.91 | 45.5 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 4.05 | 3.98 | 45.3 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 89.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 67.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |