Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.35 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.56 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 1.58 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 1.71 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 1.85 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.90 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.99 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.11 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.12 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.16 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.16 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.18 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.18 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.20 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.25 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.29 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.30 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.31 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.32 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.36 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.38 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.41 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.41 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.42 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.46 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.50 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.51 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.58 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.66 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.71 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.73 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.75 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.76 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.77 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.78 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.78 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.81 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.84 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.90 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.97 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.99 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.04 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.05 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.12 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 3.20 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.21 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.24 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.26 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.37 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 3.46 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 101.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |