Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.43 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 1.83 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 1.90 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 1.99 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.01 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.02 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.04 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.07 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.10 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.14 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.28 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.28 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.32 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.35 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.35 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.37 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.40 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.43 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.46 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.48 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.50 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.51 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.52 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.54 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.57 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.60 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.61 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.61 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.64 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.65 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.71 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.84 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.86 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.89 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.92 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.95 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.96 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.99 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.00 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 3.01 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 3.05 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 3.12 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.13 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 3.14 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.19 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.25 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.42 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 3.43 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.57 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 4.04 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 MST | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 MST | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Springfield IL | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Topeka KS | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 81.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 MST | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 48.0°F | 41.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 PST | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 15:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 16:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 PST | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 17:00 EST | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |