Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.32 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.83 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 1.84 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.88 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.89 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.17 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.35 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.37 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.41 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.44 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.45 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.49 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.53 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.55 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.56 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.58 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.62 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.63 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.64 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.65 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.66 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.72 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.74 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.75 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.76 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.84 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.99 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.99 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.03 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 3.10 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 3.13 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.16 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.24 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 3.24 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.26 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.29 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.29 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.31 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.57 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.59 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.65 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 3.68 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.84 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.86 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.90 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 4.06 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 4.09 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 4.21 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 4.63 | 3.96 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 5.92 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 60.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 63.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 51.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 68.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |