Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.24 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.82 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.86 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 1.94 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.10 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.11 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.28 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.35 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.42 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.45 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.46 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.50 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.54 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.55 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.56 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.60 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.62 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.69 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.72 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.75 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.75 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.88 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.88 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.89 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.95 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.97 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 3.00 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.01 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.05 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.09 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 3.11 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.13 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.15 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.16 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 3.16 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.20 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 3.27 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.37 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.52 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 3.55 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 3.65 | 3.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.87 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.97 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 4.05 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 4.10 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 4.52 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 5.07 | 4.85 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 5.25 | 4.65 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 6.04 | 4.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 80.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 42.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |