Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.13 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.45 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 1.66 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 1.70 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.74 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 1.85 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.93 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 1.98 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.00 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.06 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.09 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.10 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.12 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.13 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.13 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.22 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.23 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.25 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.30 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.37 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.38 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.38 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.40 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.46 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.46 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.49 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.49 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.51 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.54 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.65 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.82 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.84 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.86 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.90 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.01 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.06 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 3.08 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 3.09 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.11 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.13 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.14 | -2.77 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.15 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 3.25 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.26 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.29 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.43 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.59 | -2.44 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 3.71 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.84 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.87 | -3.15 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 42.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 47.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |