Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.31 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 1.56 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.63 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.67 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 1.74 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 1.80 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.95 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 1.97 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.03 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.06 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.10 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.13 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.14 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.16 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.17 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.26 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.27 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.31 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.33 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.35 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.35 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.42 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.47 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.48 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.50 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.51 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.52 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.56 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.57 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.59 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.59 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.69 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.71 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.73 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.77 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.78 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.85 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.85 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.95 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.99 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.03 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.11 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.13 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 3.14 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.27 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.29 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.38 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.45 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.60 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 3.67 | 3.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 67.0°F | 58.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 112.0°F | 114.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 68.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 68.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 105.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |