Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 122 | 1.15 | -0.08 | 38.8 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 122 | 1.30 | 0.27 | 38.8 |
| Raleigh NC | 122 | 1.59 | 0.20 | 38.8 |
| Honolulu HI | 122 | 1.61 | -0.41 | 38.8 |
| Cheyenne WY | 121 | 1.68 | 0.52 | 38.7 |
| Little Rock AR | 122 | 1.70 | -0.57 | 38.8 |
| Jefferson City MO | 122 | 1.71 | 0.48 | 38.8 |
| Sacramento CA | 122 | 1.75 | 0.01 | 38.8 |
| Madison WI | 121 | 1.80 | 0.48 | 38.7 |
| Juneau AK | 122 | 1.89 | 0.20 | 38.8 |
| Des Moines IA | 122 | 1.94 | 1.11 | 38.8 |
| Frankfort KY | 122 | 1.95 | 0.95 | 38.8 |
| Montgomery AL | 122 | 1.98 | -0.66 | 38.8 |
| Indianapolis IN | 122 | 2.02 | 0.07 | 38.8 |
| Tallahassee FL | 122 | 2.08 | 0.43 | 38.8 |
| Columbus OH | 121 | 2.08 | 1.44 | 38.7 |
| Nashville TN | 121 | 2.25 | 0.13 | 38.7 |
| Annapolis MD | 122 | 2.27 | 0.89 | 38.8 |
| Saint Paul MN | 122 | 2.32 | 2.01 | 38.8 |
| Springfield IL | 122 | 2.38 | 2.03 | 38.8 |
| Atlanta GA | 122 | 2.42 | -0.24 | 38.8 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 121 | 2.43 | -0.20 | 38.7 |
| Richmond VA | 121 | 2.50 | 2.02 | 38.7 |
| Salem OR | 121 | 2.53 | 2.05 | 38.7 |
| Austin TX | 121 | 2.68 | 1.49 | 38.7 |
| Carson City NV | 122 | 2.71 | 1.34 | 38.8 |
| Lansing MI | 122 | 2.80 | 2.26 | 38.8 |
| Trenton NJ | 122 | 2.83 | 2.35 | 38.8 |
| Charleston WV | 121 | 2.83 | 2.12 | 38.7 |
| Bismarck ND | 122 | 2.84 | 2.43 | 38.8 |
| Boise ID | 122 | 2.88 | 1.48 | 38.8 |
| Denver CO | 122 | 2.95 | 2.43 | 38.8 |
| Topeka KS | 122 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 38.8 |
| Santa Fe NM | 122 | 3.04 | -0.73 | 38.8 |
| Columbia SC | 121 | 3.16 | -2.73 | 38.7 |
| Hartford CT | 122 | 3.20 | 2.33 | 38.8 |
| Olympia WA | 121 | 3.22 | 1.26 | 38.7 |
| Harrisburg PA | 121 | 3.27 | 2.71 | 38.7 |
| Pierre SD | 121 | 3.34 | 3.31 | 38.7 |
| Providence RI | 121 | 3.46 | 2.98 | 38.7 |
| Dover DE | 122 | 3.56 | 1.11 | 38.8 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 121 | 3.70 | 2.88 | 38.7 |
| Boston MA | 122 | 3.71 | 2.98 | 38.8 |
| Augusta ME | 122 | 3.74 | 1.84 | 38.8 |
| Helena MT | 122 | 3.82 | 3.03 | 38.8 |
| Lincoln NE | 122 | 3.91 | 3.89 | 38.8 |
| Phoenix AZ | 122 | 4.04 | 2.48 | 38.8 |
| Concord NH | 122 | 4.44 | 3.70 | 38.8 |
| Albany NY | 122 | 4.50 | 3.81 | 38.8 |
| Montpelier VT | 121 | 4.70 | 2.52 | 38.7 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |