Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.45 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.75 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 1.81 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.84 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 1.89 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.01 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.06 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.15 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.20 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.23 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.31 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.41 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.46 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.47 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.47 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.49 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.50 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.51 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.52 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.54 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.57 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.65 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.66 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.67 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.70 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.78 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.81 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.87 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.89 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.96 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.99 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 3.08 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.08 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.22 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.24 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.26 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.27 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.33 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 3.34 | -3.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.34 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.36 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 3.42 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 3.44 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.53 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 3.70 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.72 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 4.02 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 4.21 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 4.29 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 37.0°F | 31.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 40.0°F | 34.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 37.0°F | 41.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 32.0°F | 36.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 39.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 30.0°F | 36.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 32.0°F | 35.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 33.0°F | 34.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |