Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.08 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.38 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.47 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.76 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.86 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.00 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.05 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.08 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.08 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.16 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.17 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.18 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.20 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.20 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.23 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.25 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.31 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.36 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.37 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.38 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.39 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.44 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.46 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.49 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.51 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.51 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.60 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.62 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.72 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.74 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.75 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.78 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.85 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.90 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.91 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.95 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.04 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 3.19 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 3.28 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.39 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 3.41 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.41 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.49 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.50 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.51 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.54 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.67 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.91 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 4.08 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 4.17 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 47.0°F | 53.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 44.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 50.0°F | 58.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |