Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.44 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 1.53 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.65 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 1.80 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 1.91 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 1.97 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.01 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.06 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.08 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.09 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.11 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.17 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.20 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.20 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.24 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.31 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.31 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.33 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.34 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.35 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.37 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.38 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.40 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.41 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.41 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.41 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.44 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.46 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.48 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.52 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.55 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.62 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.63 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.63 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.66 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.70 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.71 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.78 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.80 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.87 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.88 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.88 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.91 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.92 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.97 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.02 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.13 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 3.16 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.23 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.42 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 110.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 56.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |