Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.32 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.46 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.52 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.82 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.01 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.03 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.03 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.12 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.17 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.17 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.22 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.22 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.23 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.23 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.26 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.27 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.29 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.29 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.31 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.31 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.33 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.33 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.34 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.34 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.36 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.39 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.43 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.54 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.58 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.60 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.66 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.66 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.74 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.75 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.76 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.99 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 3.01 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.07 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.08 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.14 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.22 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.39 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 3.58 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.59 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 3.75 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.97 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 4.05 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 4.10 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 4.23 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 5.83 | 3.71 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 52.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 40.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 46.0°F | 39.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 40.0°F | 48.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 38.0°F | 41.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 46.0°F | 40.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 48.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 38.0°F | 31.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 49.0°F | 42.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 37.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |