Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.28 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.52 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.75 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.81 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.03 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.08 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.22 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.27 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.27 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.31 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.32 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.33 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.35 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.36 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.40 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.42 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.46 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.49 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.54 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.55 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.56 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.56 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.56 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.59 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.66 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.71 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.73 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.74 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.78 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.82 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.86 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.89 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.91 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.92 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.96 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.96 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.98 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.99 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.09 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.10 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.42 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.46 | 3.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.57 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.62 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 3.80 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.99 | 3.74 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 4.05 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 4.59 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 4.95 | 3.52 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 5.49 | 4.09 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 40.0°F | 36.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |