Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
9133
438432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.65°
9084 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-21 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 182 1.34 0.18 41.8
Baton Rouge LA 182 1.51 0.66 41.8
Little Rock AR 182 1.68 -0.83 41.8
Honolulu HI 182 1.79 -0.90 41.8
Raleigh NC 182 1.83 0.42 41.8
Indianapolis IN 182 1.87 -0.14 41.8
Jefferson City MO 182 2.03 0.98 41.8
Madison WI 181 2.07 0.95 41.8
Frankfort KY 182 2.08 0.83 41.8
Columbus OH 181 2.09 1.17 41.8
Sacramento CA 182 2.10 -0.82 41.8
Austin TX 181 2.14 1.10 41.8
Juneau AK 182 2.15 0.03 41.8
Tallahassee FL 182 2.15 0.81 41.8
Saint Paul MN 182 2.16 1.81 41.8
Atlanta GA 182 2.19 0.18 41.8
Nashville TN 181 2.24 0.08 41.8
Cheyenne WY 181 2.24 0.59 41.8
Annapolis MD 182 2.31 0.87 41.8
Salem OR 181 2.31 1.43 41.8
Richmond VA 181 2.31 1.52 41.8
Montgomery AL 182 2.32 0.19 41.8
Topeka KS 182 2.51 2.23 41.8
Des Moines IA 182 2.52 1.82 41.8
Charleston WV 181 2.56 1.22 41.8
Springfield IL 182 2.57 2.29 41.8
Bismarck ND 182 2.57 2.10 41.8
Trenton NJ 182 2.58 1.82 41.8
Hartford CT 182 2.75 1.68 41.8
Salt Lake City UT 181 2.79 -1.30 41.8
Lansing MI 182 2.82 1.82 41.8
Dover DE 182 2.91 0.96 41.8
Carson City NV 182 2.93 0.62 41.8
Boise ID 182 2.97 1.87 41.8
Harrisburg PA 181 2.99 1.76 41.8
Providence RI 181 3.01 2.16 41.8
Olympia WA 181 3.02 0.56 41.8
Denver CO 182 3.03 1.77 41.8
Columbia SC 181 3.04 -2.72 41.8
Augusta ME 182 3.13 1.35 41.8
Santa Fe NM 182 3.38 -1.54 41.8
Boston MA 182 3.39 2.13 41.8
Oklahoma City OK 181 3.43 2.79 41.8
Helena MT 182 3.58 2.93 41.8
Lincoln NE 182 3.58 3.48 41.8
Albany NY 182 3.66 2.71 41.8
Pierre SD 181 3.71 3.64 41.8
Concord NH 182 3.82 2.74 41.8
Phoenix AZ 182 4.12 1.50 41.8
Montpelier VT 181 4.22 1.60 41.8

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 94.0°F 88.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 101.0°F 100.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 88.0°F 94.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 14:00 MDT Denver CO 91.0°F 82.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Dover DE 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 77.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 14:00 MDT Boise ID 94.0°F 81.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 91.0°F 85.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 85.0°F 80.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 90.0°F 84.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 97.0°F 87.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Boston MA 79.0°F 71.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 96.0°F 90.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 14:00 MDT Helena MT 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 91.0°F 83.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 88.0°F 81.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Concord NH 79.0°F 73.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 85.0°F 90.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Albany NY 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 102.0°F 103.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 13:00 PDT Salem OR 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Providence RI 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-21 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0