Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.45 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.51 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.81 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.93 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.94 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.97 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.01 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.02 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.13 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.13 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.28 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.32 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.35 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.38 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.41 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.42 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.49 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.54 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.54 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.55 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.55 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.58 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.61 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.61 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.62 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.65 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.74 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.79 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.86 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.86 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.96 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.03 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.07 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.11 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 3.13 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 3.22 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.24 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 3.26 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.26 | -3.04 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.29 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.31 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.38 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.39 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.43 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.50 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.60 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 3.69 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.75 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.90 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 4.29 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 30.0°F | 33.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 55.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 43.0°F | 57.0°F | -14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 36.0°F | 38.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |