Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 14 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 7.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 14 | 0.79 | 0.07 | 7.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 14 | 0.79 | -0.36 | 7.5 |
| Pierre SD | 13 | 0.85 | 0.69 | 7.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 13 | 0.85 | -0.38 | 7.0 |
| Columbus OH | 13 | 0.92 | 0.15 | 7.0 |
| Richmond VA | 13 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 7.0 |
| Nashville TN | 13 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 7.0 |
| Juneau AK | 14 | 1.14 | 0.29 | 7.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 14 | 1.21 | 0.93 | 7.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 14 | 1.29 | -0.43 | 7.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 14 | 1.36 | 0.79 | 7.5 |
| Columbia SC | 13 | 1.38 | -1.38 | 7.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 14 | 1.50 | 1.36 | 7.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 14 | 1.50 | 1.07 | 7.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 14 | 1.57 | 0.29 | 7.5 |
| Charleston WV | 13 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 7.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 14 | 1.64 | -1.36 | 7.5 |
| Salem OR | 13 | 1.69 | 0.46 | 7.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 13 | 1.69 | 0.77 | 7.0 |
| Springfield IL | 14 | 1.71 | 1.00 | 7.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 14 | 1.71 | 1.29 | 7.5 |
| Topeka KS | 14 | 1.71 | 1.57 | 7.5 |
| Madison WI | 13 | 1.77 | 0.23 | 7.0 |
| Helena MT | 14 | 1.79 | 0.50 | 7.5 |
| Jackson MS | 14 | 1.86 | 1.57 | 7.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 14 | 1.86 | 1.00 | 7.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 14 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 7.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 13 | 1.92 | -1.31 | 7.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 14 | 1.93 | 0.64 | 7.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 13 | 2.00 | 1.08 | 7.0 |
| Providence RI | 13 | 2.08 | 1.77 | 7.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 14 | 2.14 | -2.14 | 7.5 |
| Lansing MI | 14 | 2.14 | 1.71 | 7.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 14 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 7.5 |
| Hartford CT | 14 | 2.71 | 1.43 | 7.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 14 | 2.71 | -2.57 | 7.5 |
| Austin TX | 13 | 2.77 | 2.77 | 7.0 |
| Boston MA | 14 | 2.79 | 2.50 | 7.5 |
| Dover DE | 14 | 2.93 | 1.64 | 7.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 14 | 3.14 | -2.57 | 7.5 |
| Carson City NV | 14 | 3.93 | 3.64 | 7.5 |
| Augusta ME | 14 | 4.57 | 4.43 | 7.5 |
| Denver CO | 14 | 4.86 | 4.86 | 7.5 |
| Boise ID | 14 | 4.86 | 3.00 | 7.5 |
| Concord NH | 14 | 5.07 | 2.93 | 7.5 |
| Olympia WA | 13 | 5.08 | 2.00 | 7.0 |
| Albany NY | 14 | 5.71 | 4.43 | 7.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 13 | 6.46 | 5.69 | 7.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 14 | 8.21 | 8.21 | 7.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 73.0°F | +10.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 98.0°F | +8.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 96.0°F | 89.0°F | +7.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 75.0°F | +11.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 93.0°F | 81.0°F | +12.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 96.0°F | 88.0°F | +8.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 99.0°F | 95.0°F | +4.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 96.0°F | 88.0°F | +8.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 99.0°F | 93.0°F | +6.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 13.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 13.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 13.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 13.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 94.0°F | 88.0°F | +6.0° | 13.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 13.0 |