Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
72883
3498432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.60°
9600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-12 23:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 192 1.64 0.13 48.0
Indianapolis IN 192 1.73 -0.29 48.0
Jefferson City MO 192 1.82 0.13 48.0
Albany NY 192 1.83 -0.64 48.0
Lansing MI 192 1.89 0.47 48.0
Honolulu HI 192 1.91 -1.18 48.0
Annapolis MD 192 1.94 -1.07 48.0
Sacramento CA 192 1.96 -0.08 48.0
Austin TX 192 1.98 0.43 48.0
Columbus OH 192 2.03 0.45 48.0
Jackson MS 192 2.05 0.87 48.0
Trenton NJ 192 2.08 -1.64 48.0
Richmond VA 192 2.10 0.01 48.0
Charleston WV 192 2.18 1.56 48.0
Hartford CT 192 2.19 -1.01 48.0
Nashville TN 192 2.26 -0.13 48.0
Salem OR 192 2.27 -0.41 48.0
Augusta ME 192 2.32 -0.33 48.0
Saint Paul MN 192 2.38 0.01 48.0
Harrisburg PA 192 2.39 -1.47 48.0
Providence RI 192 2.39 -2.10 48.0
Columbia SC 192 2.42 0.28 48.0
Raleigh NC 192 2.45 -0.65 48.0
Madison WI 192 2.45 0.48 48.0
Cheyenne WY 192 2.51 0.44 48.0
Bismarck ND 192 2.61 0.69 48.0
Boise ID 192 2.64 -0.19 48.0
Atlanta GA 192 2.70 1.38 48.0
Phoenix AZ 192 2.74 -2.16 48.0
Des Moines IA 192 2.77 1.56 48.0
Dover DE 192 2.78 -1.89 48.0
Topeka KS 192 2.78 1.98 48.0
Boston MA 192 2.81 -1.06 48.0
Concord NH 192 2.82 0.03 48.0
Carson City NV 192 2.85 -0.67 48.0
Helena MT 192 2.90 -0.94 48.0
Frankfort KY 192 2.92 0.77 48.0
Lincoln NE 192 2.96 1.87 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 192 2.98 1.32 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 192 3.02 0.91 48.0
Tallahassee FL 192 3.15 0.10 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 192 3.25 -2.03 48.0
Pierre SD 192 3.28 2.03 48.0
Montgomery AL 192 3.32 1.16 48.0
Olympia WA 192 3.42 0.69 48.0
Montpelier VT 192 3.45 1.44 48.0
Juneau AK 192 3.56 0.40 48.0
Denver CO 192 3.60 1.10 48.0
Springfield IL 192 3.61 2.69 48.0
Santa Fe NM 192 3.75 -2.74 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Montgomery AL 83.0°F 90.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 15:00 AKDT Juneau AK 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 16:00 MST Phoenix AZ 103.0°F 102.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Little Rock AR 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 16:00 PDT Sacramento CA 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 17:00 MDT Denver CO 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Hartford CT 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 13:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 17:00 MDT Boise ID 86.0°F 89.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Springfield IL 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Des Moines IA 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Topeka KS 86.0°F 65.0°F +21.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Frankfort KY 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 89.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Augusta ME 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Lansing MI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Jackson MS 84.0°F 92.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 17:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 68.0°F -13.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Lincoln NE 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 16:00 PDT Carson City NV 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Concord NH 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 17:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Albany NY 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Raleigh NC 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Bismarck ND 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 18:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 94.0°F 97.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 16:00 PDT Salem OR 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Providence RI 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 19:00 EDT Columbia SC 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0