Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.32 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.85 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 1.86 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.88 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 1.92 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.15 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.33 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.35 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.42 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.43 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.44 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.46 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.50 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.57 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.59 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.63 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.65 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.65 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.68 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.69 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.70 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.70 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.74 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.76 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.79 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.87 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.94 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.95 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.01 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 3.05 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.17 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 3.21 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.23 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.25 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.26 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 3.27 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.27 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.29 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.55 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.57 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.60 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 3.62 | 3.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.79 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 3.89 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.97 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 4.08 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 4.14 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 4.27 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 4.69 | 4.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 5.91 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 90.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 73.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |