Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.36 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.46 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.64 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.67 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.74 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.74 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.76 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.84 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 1.93 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 1.95 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.06 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.13 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.16 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.17 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.24 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.24 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.32 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.35 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.36 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.37 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.40 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.41 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.46 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.53 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.53 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.55 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.55 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.56 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.57 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.58 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.65 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.70 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.79 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.79 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.81 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.82 | -2.50 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.84 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.97 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.09 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.17 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.25 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.34 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 3.46 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 3.48 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.55 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.75 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.98 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 4.14 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 4.21 | 3.76 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 5.10 | 4.32 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 34.0°F | 37.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 57.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 39.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 53.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 50.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 40.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 54.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |