Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.34 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.51 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.53 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.56 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.66 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.79 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.82 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 1.96 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.96 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.01 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.06 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.10 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.12 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.13 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.21 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.24 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.30 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.32 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.34 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.38 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.38 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.40 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.44 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.47 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.50 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.55 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.68 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.70 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.72 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.72 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.73 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.74 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.78 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.93 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.97 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 3.01 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.03 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 3.11 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.29 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 3.30 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 3.37 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 3.43 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.44 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.47 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.54 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.54 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.93 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 4.07 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 4.26 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 4.63 | 3.61 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 33.0°F | 26.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 30.0°F | 31.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 52.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 55.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |