Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 50 | 0.94 | 0.38 | 25.4 |
| Annapolis MD | 50 | 1.16 | -0.32 | 25.4 |
| Raleigh NC | 50 | 1.16 | -0.40 | 25.4 |
| Jefferson City MO | 50 | 1.24 | 0.36 | 25.4 |
| Columbus OH | 49 | 1.24 | 0.59 | 25.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 50 | 1.38 | -0.46 | 25.4 |
| Jackson MS | 50 | 1.44 | -0.16 | 25.4 |
| Cheyenne WY | 49 | 1.45 | 0.31 | 25.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 50 | 1.50 | 0.58 | 25.4 |
| Nashville TN | 49 | 1.67 | 0.04 | 25.0 |
| Juneau AK | 50 | 1.76 | 1.40 | 25.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 49 | 1.76 | 0.73 | 25.0 |
| Richmond VA | 49 | 1.80 | 1.35 | 25.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 50 | 1.88 | 0.16 | 25.4 |
| Lansing MI | 50 | 1.90 | 1.34 | 25.4 |
| Indianapolis IN | 50 | 1.94 | 1.02 | 25.4 |
| Madison WI | 49 | 1.96 | 1.10 | 25.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 49 | 1.98 | 0.27 | 25.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 50 | 2.00 | 0.60 | 25.4 |
| Salem OR | 49 | 2.00 | 1.39 | 25.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 50 | 2.02 | 0.66 | 25.4 |
| Frankfort KY | 50 | 2.02 | 0.38 | 25.4 |
| Topeka KS | 50 | 2.12 | 2.08 | 25.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 50 | 2.24 | -1.04 | 25.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 50 | 2.32 | 2.32 | 25.4 |
| Dover DE | 50 | 2.44 | 0.08 | 25.4 |
| Springfield IL | 50 | 2.44 | 2.04 | 25.4 |
| Trenton NJ | 50 | 2.44 | 1.92 | 25.4 |
| Atlanta GA | 50 | 2.46 | -2.14 | 25.4 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 49 | 2.57 | 0.57 | 25.0 |
| Pierre SD | 49 | 2.61 | 2.57 | 25.0 |
| Boise ID | 50 | 2.84 | 2.16 | 25.4 |
| Helena MT | 50 | 2.98 | 1.74 | 25.4 |
| Charleston WV | 49 | 3.02 | 3.02 | 25.0 |
| Denver CO | 50 | 3.18 | 2.70 | 25.4 |
| Saint Paul MN | 50 | 3.18 | 2.98 | 25.4 |
| Santa Fe NM | 50 | 3.24 | -1.24 | 25.4 |
| Olympia WA | 49 | 3.29 | -0.96 | 25.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 25.4 |
| Hartford CT | 50 | 3.60 | 2.32 | 25.4 |
| Columbia SC | 49 | 3.63 | -3.63 | 25.0 |
| Augusta ME | 50 | 3.72 | 1.72 | 25.4 |
| Austin TX | 49 | 3.88 | 3.80 | 25.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 50 | 3.96 | 2.60 | 25.4 |
| Providence RI | 49 | 4.37 | 4.29 | 25.0 |
| Carson City NV | 50 | 4.40 | 3.88 | 25.4 |
| Boston MA | 50 | 4.66 | 4.46 | 25.4 |
| Montpelier VT | 49 | 5.12 | 2.76 | 25.0 |
| Concord NH | 50 | 5.22 | 4.38 | 25.4 |
| Albany NY | 50 | 5.70 | 4.18 | 25.4 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 56.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |