Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
4333
208032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.70°
4284 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-17 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 86 1.17 0.36 34.9
Raleigh NC 86 1.23 0.07 34.9
Jackson MS 86 1.27 -0.15 34.9
Columbus OH 85 1.36 0.85 34.7
Honolulu HI 86 1.47 0.21 34.9
Tallahassee FL 86 1.58 0.14 34.9
Cheyenne WY 85 1.61 0.25 34.7
Madison WI 85 1.68 0.93 34.7
Little Rock AR 86 1.83 -0.24 34.9
Frankfort KY 86 1.88 0.47 34.9
Jefferson City MO 86 1.88 1.02 34.9
Juneau AK 86 1.93 0.91 34.9
Sacramento CA 86 1.95 -0.21 34.9
Annapolis MD 86 1.95 0.81 34.9
Indianapolis IN 86 1.97 0.38 34.9
Des Moines IA 86 1.99 0.85 34.9
Nashville TN 85 2.11 -0.22 34.7
Montgomery AL 86 2.24 -1.03 34.9
Salt Lake City UT 85 2.27 -0.29 34.7
Atlanta GA 86 2.29 -1.38 34.9
Harrisburg PA 85 2.29 1.49 34.7
Bismarck ND 86 2.40 2.00 34.9
Richmond VA 85 2.41 2.01 34.7
Pierre SD 85 2.46 2.41 34.7
Springfield IL 86 2.52 2.20 34.9
Saint Paul MN 86 2.65 2.28 34.9
Topeka KS 86 2.71 2.64 34.9
Salem OR 85 2.81 2.27 34.7
Charleston WV 85 2.91 2.84 34.7
Trenton NJ 86 2.99 2.66 34.9
Santa Fe NM 86 3.01 -1.59 34.9
Denver CO 86 3.12 2.56 34.9
Helena MT 86 3.13 2.10 34.9
Carson City NV 86 3.19 2.14 34.9
Lansing MI 86 3.20 2.85 34.9
Olympia WA 85 3.20 0.40 34.7
Dover DE 86 3.26 1.19 34.9
Boise ID 86 3.27 1.38 34.9
Austin TX 85 3.36 2.49 34.7
Columbia SC 85 3.42 -3.26 34.7
Hartford CT 86 3.44 2.67 34.9
Providence RI 85 3.47 3.35 34.7
Augusta ME 86 3.63 1.53 34.9
Oklahoma City OK 85 3.71 2.55 34.7
Boston MA 86 3.73 3.20 34.9
Lincoln NE 86 4.15 4.15 34.9
Phoenix AZ 86 4.31 3.13 34.9
Concord NH 86 4.73 4.10 34.9
Montpelier VT 85 4.88 2.13 34.7
Albany NY 86 4.92 4.01 34.9

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 82.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 92.0°F 94.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 14:00 MDT Denver CO 92.0°F 92.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Dover DE 90.0°F 84.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 90.0°F 93.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 89.0°F 85.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 14:00 MDT Boise ID 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 88.0°F 92.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 90.0°F 83.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 92.0°F 85.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Boston MA 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 14:00 MDT Helena MT 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Concord NH 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 90.0°F 86.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Albany NY 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 99.0°F 97.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 89.0°F 79.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 90.0°F 86.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 13:00 PDT Salem OR 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 91.0°F 85.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Providence RI 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-17 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 48.0