Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.33 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.52 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 1.60 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.77 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 1.77 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 1.88 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.92 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.08 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.12 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.12 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.18 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.18 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.20 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.22 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.24 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.25 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.27 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.27 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.29 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.30 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.36 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.37 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.39 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.44 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.47 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.54 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.58 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.62 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.62 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.73 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.75 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.80 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.82 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.85 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.86 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.88 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.91 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.95 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.95 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.96 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.06 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.08 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.12 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.19 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.21 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.32 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.33 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 3.38 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.53 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 3.57 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 90.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 114.0°F | 114.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 80.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 102.0°F | 100.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 84.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 100.0°F | 100.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 75.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |