Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
24483
1175232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.50°
9200 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-03 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 184 1.46 -0.47 48.0
Honolulu HI 184 1.61 -1.36 48.0
Salem OR 184 1.64 0.76 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 184 1.87 1.24 48.0
Raleigh NC 184 1.90 0.02 48.0
Little Rock AR 184 2.07 -0.60 48.0
Charleston WV 184 2.09 1.51 48.0
Nashville TN 184 2.10 0.57 48.0
Boston MA 184 2.14 0.25 48.0
Trenton NJ 184 2.15 -1.20 48.0
Providence RI 184 2.16 -0.76 48.0
Sacramento CA 184 2.18 1.99 48.0
Jackson MS 184 2.22 0.93 48.0
Lansing MI 184 2.23 0.70 48.0
Jefferson City MO 184 2.24 1.28 48.0
Annapolis MD 184 2.25 0.64 48.0
Augusta ME 184 2.26 -1.80 48.0
Carson City NV 184 2.30 1.55 48.0
Saint Paul MN 184 2.31 -0.03 48.0
Columbus OH 184 2.33 0.42 48.0
Harrisburg PA 184 2.36 -0.55 48.0
Helena MT 184 2.37 -0.41 48.0
Atlanta GA 184 2.40 0.51 48.0
Austin TX 184 2.41 2.38 48.0
Topeka KS 184 2.42 1.12 48.0
Juneau AK 184 2.45 1.01 48.0
Lincoln NE 184 2.47 1.47 48.0
Hartford CT 184 2.52 -1.72 48.0
Indianapolis IN 184 2.52 1.03 48.0
Dover DE 184 2.54 -0.90 48.0
Des Moines IA 184 2.55 -0.17 48.0
Montpelier VT 184 2.60 1.26 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 184 2.65 1.52 48.0
Phoenix AZ 184 2.66 -1.43 48.0
Pierre SD 184 2.66 1.13 48.0
Madison WI 184 2.74 1.24 48.0
Springfield IL 184 2.82 2.20 48.0
Albany NY 184 2.85 -0.71 48.0
Montgomery AL 184 2.93 -0.92 48.0
Tallahassee FL 184 2.96 0.46 48.0
Columbia SC 184 2.96 0.29 48.0
Olympia WA 184 2.99 -0.75 48.0
Boise ID 184 3.01 -0.03 48.0
Bismarck ND 184 3.01 0.41 48.0
Frankfort KY 184 3.05 2.40 48.0
Denver CO 184 3.08 1.29 48.0
Cheyenne WY 184 3.26 0.47 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 184 3.29 1.10 48.0
Concord NH 184 3.42 -2.10 48.0
Santa Fe NM 184 3.46 -1.73 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 100.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 09:00 MDT Denver CO 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Dover DE 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 09:00 MDT Boise ID 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Boston MA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 09:00 MDT Helena MT 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Concord NH 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Albany NY 75.0°F 80.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 08:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Providence RI 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0