Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.35 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.71 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 1.90 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.91 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 1.99 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.13 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.13 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.33 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.34 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.39 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.40 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.42 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.50 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.51 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.52 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.56 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.64 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.67 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.70 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.70 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.72 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.76 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.77 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.80 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.83 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.88 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.90 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.92 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.93 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.97 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.99 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 3.01 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.02 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 3.06 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 3.09 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.10 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.15 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.24 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 3.28 | -2.84 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.42 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.44 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 3.47 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.52 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.59 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.69 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 3.77 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.84 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.86 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 4.05 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 4.12 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 88.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 33.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |