Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.25 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.83 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.88 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 1.95 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.09 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.12 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.27 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.34 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.43 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.46 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.46 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.52 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.56 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.56 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.57 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.59 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.63 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.69 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.70 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.73 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.75 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.89 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.90 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.91 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.96 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.98 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 3.00 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.01 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.08 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 3.10 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.10 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.15 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.15 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.16 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 3.18 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.22 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 3.27 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.38 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 3.54 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.54 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 3.55 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 3.68 | 3.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.81 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 4.02 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 4.08 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 4.11 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 4.52 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 5.07 | 4.85 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 5.30 | 4.69 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 6.06 | 4.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 85.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 46.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 61.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 58.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |