Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.28 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.45 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.53 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 1.91 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.92 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.96 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.99 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.07 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.10 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.18 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.20 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.22 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.25 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.26 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.27 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.28 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.28 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.28 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.35 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.37 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.43 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.44 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.48 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.49 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.52 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.55 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.56 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.64 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.68 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.76 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.78 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.78 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.79 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.79 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.90 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.93 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.99 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.01 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.06 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.13 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.21 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.40 | 3.17 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.57 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 3.63 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.68 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.75 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.77 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 4.35 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 4.36 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 5.60 | 3.87 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 40.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 29.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 48.0°F | 41.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |