Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.60 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.69 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 1.77 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.83 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 1.85 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.86 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.96 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 1.96 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.00 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.05 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.06 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.06 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.08 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.12 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.13 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.16 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.24 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.32 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.35 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.36 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.38 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.41 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.45 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.47 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.48 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.49 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.49 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.52 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.56 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.58 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.63 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.65 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.71 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.73 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.80 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.82 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.84 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.84 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.89 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.96 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.97 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.00 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.26 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.31 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 3.47 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.47 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 3.61 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.77 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.93 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 4.01 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 18:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 MST | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Dover DE | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 MST | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 58.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 MST | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 PST | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 53.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 20:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 59.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 21:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 19:00 PST | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 22:00 EST | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |