Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.33 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.82 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 1.95 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.00 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.02 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.19 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.23 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.34 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.35 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.44 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.45 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.45 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.51 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.51 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.58 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.59 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.60 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.61 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.62 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.65 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.80 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.81 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.83 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.88 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.89 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.92 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.99 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 3.03 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 3.08 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.09 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.13 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 3.18 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.20 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.22 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.25 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 3.34 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.40 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 3.40 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.63 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 3.64 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.67 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 3.68 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.79 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.93 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 4.10 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 4.12 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 4.36 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 4.41 | 4.00 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 4.88 | 4.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 6.22 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 72.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 73.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 46.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |