Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.59 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 1.73 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.84 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.88 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 1.90 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 1.93 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 1.96 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.02 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.04 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.06 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.19 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.22 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.24 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.26 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.29 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.31 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.31 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.32 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.35 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.36 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.40 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.43 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.45 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.49 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.53 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.57 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.61 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.62 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.68 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.69 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.73 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.75 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.76 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.77 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.79 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.80 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.82 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.84 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.87 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 3.12 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.13 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.16 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 3.17 | -2.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.27 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 3.33 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.33 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.34 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.59 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 4.06 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 11:00 MST | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 41.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 11:00 MST | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 11:00 MST | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 34.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 46.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 PST | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 11:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 63.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 12:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 PST | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 13:00 EST | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |