Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.17 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.46 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.53 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.86 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.96 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.04 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.07 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.16 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.22 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.22 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.23 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.27 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.29 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.30 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.30 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.31 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.34 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.36 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.45 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.47 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.50 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.51 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.51 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.52 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.53 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.53 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.54 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.62 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.69 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.69 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.76 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.89 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.89 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.93 | -2.61 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 2.97 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.08 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 3.10 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.12 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 3.12 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 3.15 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.17 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 3.29 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 3.30 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.33 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.50 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.54 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.71 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.91 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 4.09 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 4.32 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 37.0°F | 41.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 36.0°F | 43.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 52.0°F | 43.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 51.0°F | 44.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 34.0°F | 39.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 47.0°F | 56.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 39.0°F | 45.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 32.0°F | 30.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 41.0°F | 48.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 34.0°F | 39.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 38.0°F | 45.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |