Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.27 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.53 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.78 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.86 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 1.99 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.09 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.25 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.27 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.30 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.32 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.36 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.38 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.39 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.41 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.41 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.45 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.50 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.53 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.56 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.56 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.57 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.57 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.61 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.61 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.74 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.75 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.79 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.79 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.80 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.80 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.83 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.87 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.87 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.89 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.96 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.97 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 3.05 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 3.05 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.07 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.16 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.30 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.38 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 3.66 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.66 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 3.92 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 4.11 | 3.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 4.16 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 4.42 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 4.97 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 5.67 | 4.36 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 34.0°F | 34.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 41.0°F | 46.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 31.0°F | 32.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 36.0°F | 37.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 56.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 31.0°F | 26.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 38.0°F | 41.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 34.0°F | 31.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 34.0°F | 34.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |