Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.12 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.19 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 1.51 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 1.53 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.77 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 1.85 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 1.85 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.87 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.91 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.06 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.08 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.14 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.15 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.19 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.26 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.31 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.35 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.40 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.48 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.48 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.51 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.52 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.61 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.67 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.67 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.67 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.68 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.69 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.69 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.70 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.74 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.75 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.77 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.81 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.82 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.83 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.91 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.02 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 3.06 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.07 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.09 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.10 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.12 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.15 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 3.23 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 3.25 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.48 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 3.66 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 4.13 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 4.18 | -3.44 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 105.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 101.0°F | 102.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 69.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 86.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 96.0°F | 91.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 103.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |