Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.34 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.51 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.54 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.58 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.66 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.77 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.81 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 1.95 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.97 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.01 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.05 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.10 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.11 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.11 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.19 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.22 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.33 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.33 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.34 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.37 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.39 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.40 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.43 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.48 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.49 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.57 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.66 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.68 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.70 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.71 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.72 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.75 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.75 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.93 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.96 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 3.02 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.03 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 3.10 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 3.29 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.30 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 3.37 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 3.41 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.44 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.49 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.54 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.61 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.99 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 4.04 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 4.23 | 3.24 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 4.67 | 3.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 33.0°F | 25.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 29.0°F | 33.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 50.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 31.0°F | 33.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-30 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |