Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.27 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.30 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 1.57 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 1.67 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 1.69 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.75 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 1.80 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.83 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.96 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.96 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.08 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.11 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.22 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.26 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.29 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.42 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.47 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.48 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.51 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.52 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.53 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.57 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.58 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.58 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.59 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.64 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.67 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.68 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.70 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.76 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.78 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.85 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.86 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.90 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 2.90 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.91 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.96 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.01 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 3.05 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.06 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.06 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.08 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.25 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.28 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.39 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.58 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.61 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 3.62 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 4.18 | -3.53 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 4.29 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 106.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 91.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 75.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 78.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 98.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 87.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |