Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
23633
1134432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.52°
9550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-02 22:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 191 1.41 -0.30 48.0
Honolulu HI 191 1.54 -1.25 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 191 1.69 1.02 48.0
Salem OR 191 1.71 0.75 48.0
Providence RI 191 1.81 -0.51 48.0
Raleigh NC 191 1.99 0.48 48.0
Jackson MS 191 2.09 0.79 48.0
Little Rock AR 191 2.13 -0.79 48.0
Boston MA 191 2.14 0.61 48.0
Sacramento CA 191 2.15 1.95 48.0
Trenton NJ 191 2.15 -0.69 48.0
Nashville TN 191 2.19 0.38 48.0
Augusta ME 191 2.25 -1.56 48.0
Annapolis MD 191 2.27 0.80 48.0
Saint Paul MN 191 2.27 0.34 48.0
Charleston WV 191 2.29 1.34 48.0
Lansing MI 191 2.30 0.54 48.0
Helena MT 191 2.33 -0.16 48.0
Carson City NV 191 2.33 1.54 48.0
Hartford CT 191 2.35 -1.23 48.0
Jefferson City MO 191 2.36 0.85 48.0
Austin TX 191 2.38 2.37 48.0
Harrisburg PA 191 2.40 -0.52 48.0
Atlanta GA 191 2.42 0.62 48.0
Lincoln NE 191 2.43 0.94 48.0
Des Moines IA 191 2.50 -0.19 48.0
Dover DE 191 2.52 -0.29 48.0
Indianapolis IN 191 2.60 1.37 48.0
Columbus OH 191 2.62 0.65 48.0
Topeka KS 191 2.70 0.69 48.0
Olympia WA 191 2.71 -1.48 48.0
Juneau AK 191 2.72 0.68 48.0
Phoenix AZ 191 2.72 -0.52 48.0
Springfield IL 191 2.72 2.03 48.0
Albany NY 191 2.74 -0.30 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 191 2.77 1.63 48.0
Montpelier VT 191 2.80 1.71 48.0
Madison WI 191 2.80 1.03 48.0
Pierre SD 191 2.90 1.65 48.0
Columbia SC 191 2.95 -0.04 48.0
Denver CO 191 2.97 1.39 48.0
Montgomery AL 191 2.99 -0.62 48.0
Tallahassee FL 191 2.99 0.40 48.0
Bismarck ND 191 3.17 0.66 48.0
Concord NH 191 3.19 -1.48 48.0
Santa Fe NM 191 3.19 -1.59 48.0
Cheyenne WY 191 3.20 0.41 48.0
Boise ID 191 3.23 0.29 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 191 3.29 0.62 48.0
Frankfort KY 191 3.53 2.92 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Montgomery AL 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 14:00 AKDT Juneau AK 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 15:00 MST Phoenix AZ 112.0°F 113.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Little Rock AR 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 15:00 PDT Sacramento CA 101.0°F 100.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 16:00 MDT Denver CO 100.0°F 100.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Hartford CT 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Atlanta GA 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 16:00 MDT Boise ID 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Springfield IL 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Topeka KS 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Frankfort KY 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 93.0°F 88.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 78.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Boston MA 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Lansing MI 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Jackson MS 90.0°F 82.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 16:00 MDT Helena MT 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Lincoln NE 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 15:00 PDT Carson City NV 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Concord NH 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Trenton NJ 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 16:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 87.0°F 92.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Raleigh NC 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Bismarck ND 98.0°F 103.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 17:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 15:00 PDT Salem OR 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Providence RI 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 18:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 78.0°F +6.0° 48.0