Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.45 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.50 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.79 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.95 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.95 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.98 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 1.99 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.04 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.15 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.15 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.30 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.32 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.34 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.35 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.39 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.43 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.51 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.52 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.55 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.56 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.56 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.56 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.59 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.60 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.63 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.64 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.75 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.82 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.86 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.88 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.95 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.03 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.08 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 3.13 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.13 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.22 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.24 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 3.25 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 3.28 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 3.28 | -3.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.28 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.36 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.42 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.46 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.50 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 3.62 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 3.72 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.77 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 3.90 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 4.15 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 51.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 26.0°F | 32.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 50.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 35.0°F | 54.0°F | -19.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 41.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |