Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.24 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.78 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.89 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 1.92 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.12 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.17 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.28 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.34 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.45 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.46 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.48 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.54 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.54 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.59 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.63 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.67 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.68 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.72 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.73 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.78 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.80 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.84 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.89 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.92 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.97 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.97 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.00 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.01 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.01 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 3.02 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 3.04 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.04 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.07 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.08 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.14 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.17 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.25 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 3.26 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 3.44 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.50 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 3.59 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 3.64 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.94 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.97 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 4.11 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 4.25 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 4.36 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 4.89 | 4.69 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 5.08 | 4.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 5.84 | 3.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 44.0°F | 37.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 32.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 64.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |