Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.61 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.64 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 1.76 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.83 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 1.84 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 1.86 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.94 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 1.94 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.98 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.98 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.03 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.03 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.13 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.17 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.22 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.26 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.26 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.30 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.31 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.35 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.40 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.41 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.43 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.43 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.46 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.48 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.58 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.63 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.72 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.73 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.80 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.81 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.83 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.84 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.87 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.87 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.88 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.90 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.94 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.96 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 3.15 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.21 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 3.24 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.33 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 3.37 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.39 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.40 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.49 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.74 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.81 | -2.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 40.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 73.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 42.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |