Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.59 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.63 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.63 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.75 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 1.75 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.92 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.99 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.03 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.04 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.05 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.08 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.08 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.08 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.09 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.16 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.27 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.27 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.29 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.29 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.29 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.30 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.32 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.45 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.46 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.47 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.48 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.50 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.55 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.56 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.58 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.60 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.63 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.69 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.74 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.75 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.81 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.84 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.85 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.85 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.91 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.07 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.24 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.35 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.40 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 3.60 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.62 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.76 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.80 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 3.87 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.89 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 08:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 MST | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 42.0°F | +20.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 MST | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 57.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 MST | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 45.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 PST | Carson City NV | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 70.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 10:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 54.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 11:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 09:00 PST | Salem OR | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-02 12:00 EST | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |