Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.40 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.62 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 1.78 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.83 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.87 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 1.89 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 1.90 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.99 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.05 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.06 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.10 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.13 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.18 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.20 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.24 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.25 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.26 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.27 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.27 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.28 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.31 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.33 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.41 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.47 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.49 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.58 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.60 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.61 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.67 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.69 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.82 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.87 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.88 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.88 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.88 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.92 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.96 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.02 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.02 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.02 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.15 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.20 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 3.21 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.28 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.34 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 3.37 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.48 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.54 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.61 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.68 | -2.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 77.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 77.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 77.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 84.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |