Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.32 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.74 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 1.90 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.92 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 1.95 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.30 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.32 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.37 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.41 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.43 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.45 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.48 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.51 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 2.55 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.55 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.56 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.59 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.66 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.68 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.69 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.69 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.69 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.71 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.79 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.86 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.88 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.91 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.97 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.06 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.11 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.16 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 3.17 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.17 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.18 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 3.23 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 3.24 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.25 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 3.29 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.32 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.38 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.46 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.61 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 3.64 | 3.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.65 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 3.76 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.79 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.79 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 3.87 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 4.37 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 5.18 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 89.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 78.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 74.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 46.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 58.0°F | +18.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 46.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |