Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.42 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.50 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.78 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.87 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.01 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.02 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.06 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.08 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.10 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.10 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.17 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.20 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.22 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.23 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.23 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.25 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.29 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.32 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.34 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.34 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.42 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.45 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.46 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.46 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.47 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.49 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.51 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.52 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.56 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.60 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.66 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.69 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.72 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.77 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.79 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.83 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.85 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.91 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.92 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.01 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.13 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.21 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.28 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.52 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.73 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.80 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.98 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 4.26 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 4.34 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 4.37 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 56.0°F | 49.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 56.0°F | 49.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 47.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 58.0°F | 50.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |