Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.45 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.47 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.76 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.82 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.03 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.06 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.10 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.15 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.15 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.16 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.19 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.20 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.24 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.29 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.30 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.32 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.33 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.40 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.41 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.41 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.46 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.46 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.49 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.57 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.59 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.60 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.61 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.67 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.82 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.88 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.93 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.98 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.98 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.01 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.03 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 3.07 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 3.15 | -2.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.17 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 3.18 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.27 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 3.29 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.38 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.41 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.41 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.44 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.49 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.72 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.79 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.82 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.93 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |