Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.31 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.36 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 1.60 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 1.62 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 1.66 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.74 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.74 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 1.77 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 1.86 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.02 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.05 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.11 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.27 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.28 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.31 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.32 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.37 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.39 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.47 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.49 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.50 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.56 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.57 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.63 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.64 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.64 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.70 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.74 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.76 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.79 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.82 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.85 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.90 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.92 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.95 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.00 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 3.01 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.07 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.07 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 3.10 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.13 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.15 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.28 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.28 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.39 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.47 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 3.70 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.75 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.91 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 4.31 | -3.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 53.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 62.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |