Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.40 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.52 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.66 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.70 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 1.83 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.87 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.88 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.89 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 1.96 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 1.97 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.97 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.11 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.15 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.21 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.25 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.28 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.28 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.29 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.35 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.37 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.39 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.40 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.40 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.42 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.48 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.48 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.49 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.51 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.54 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.55 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.57 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.61 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.61 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.72 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.76 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.88 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.92 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 3.03 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.07 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.07 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 3.21 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.21 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.30 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.39 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.84 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.88 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.91 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 4.02 | 3.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 4.06 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 4.70 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 MST | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Hartford CT | 33.0°F | 30.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Dover DE | 42.0°F | 34.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 MST | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Augusta ME | 30.0°F | 34.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Boston MA | 36.0°F | 41.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 MST | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 PST | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Concord NH | 26.0°F | 25.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 37.0°F | 38.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 02:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 53.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Albany NY | 33.0°F | 31.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 01:00 PST | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 36.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Providence RI | 35.0°F | 35.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 EST | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |