Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.44 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.51 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 168 | 1.80 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 168 | 1.89 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 1.98 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 168 | 2.01 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 168 | 2.02 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.07 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.08 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.13 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 168 | 2.15 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.21 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 168 | 2.21 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 168 | 2.23 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 168 | 2.24 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.28 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 168 | 2.30 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.32 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 168 | 2.32 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 168 | 2.32 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 168 | 2.38 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.41 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.43 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.44 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.47 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 168 | 2.47 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 168 | 2.49 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 168 | 2.49 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 168 | 2.49 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 168 | 2.57 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.67 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 168 | 2.73 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 168 | 2.73 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 168 | 2.77 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.80 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.83 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 168 | 2.86 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.92 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 168 | 2.95 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.98 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 168 | 3.17 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.22 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.30 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 168 | 3.54 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 168 | 3.73 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 168 | 3.88 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 168 | 4.03 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 168 | 4.32 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 168 | 4.39 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 168 | 4.43 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 58.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 59.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |