Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.24 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.81 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.85 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 1.93 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.09 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.10 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.29 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.34 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.41 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.42 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.43 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.51 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.54 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.55 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.59 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.60 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.63 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.70 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.71 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.74 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.79 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.86 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.87 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.87 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.95 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.97 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 3.01 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.03 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.03 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.07 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 3.09 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.13 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.14 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 3.14 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.17 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.19 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 3.27 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.38 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.50 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 3.55 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 3.59 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 3.61 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.93 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.94 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 4.02 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 4.08 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 4.53 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 5.05 | 4.83 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 5.21 | 4.58 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 5.99 | 4.09 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 37.0°F | 38.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 65.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 44.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |