Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.29 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 168 | 1.54 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 168 | 1.80 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.88 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.00 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.11 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 168 | 2.27 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 168 | 2.27 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.28 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.32 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 168 | 2.38 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 168 | 2.39 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.43 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.43 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 168 | 2.48 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 168 | 2.48 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.53 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 168 | 2.55 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 168 | 2.55 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 168 | 2.57 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.59 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.59 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 168 | 2.60 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 168 | 2.61 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.62 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 168 | 2.76 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 168 | 2.77 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.79 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.85 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 168 | 2.85 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 168 | 2.86 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 168 | 2.86 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 168 | 2.92 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.95 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 3.02 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 3.02 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 168 | 3.02 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 168 | 3.07 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 168 | 3.13 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 168 | 3.18 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 168 | 3.33 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.37 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.66 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 168 | 3.68 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 4.03 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 168 | 4.15 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 168 | 4.23 | 3.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 168 | 4.50 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 168 | 5.02 | 3.71 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 168 | 5.77 | 4.55 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 78.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 37.0°F | 38.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 70.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 38.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 63.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 51.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |