Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 177 | 1.34 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.53 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 1.56 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 1.73 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 1.80 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 1.87 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.95 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.11 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.15 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.19 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.20 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 2.20 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.21 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.21 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.23 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.23 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.28 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.28 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.33 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.33 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.34 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.42 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.43 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.45 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 2.46 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.54 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.57 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.60 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.68 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.72 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.73 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.77 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.77 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.81 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 2.82 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.85 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.86 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.89 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.96 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.01 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 3.01 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.03 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 3.07 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.15 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.21 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.27 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 3.28 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.28 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.44 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 3.46 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 103.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-01 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 71.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |