Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.52 | 0.12 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.63 | -0.77 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.65 | 0.77 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.73 | -0.41 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 1.84 | 0.65 | 47.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.85 | -1.45 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.15 | 1.39 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.24 | 0.97 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.25 | 1.28 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.26 | 0.06 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.30 | 0.20 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.32 | 0.77 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.35 | 0.58 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.36 | 0.03 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.38 | 1.34 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.40 | 0.13 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.41 | 2.09 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.43 | 1.42 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.47 | 0.45 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.47 | 1.51 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.53 | 0.55 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.54 | 0.64 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.54 | 1.20 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.67 | 2.09 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.68 | 1.12 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.68 | 0.26 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.77 | 1.80 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.83 | 1.44 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.84 | 1.86 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.86 | 0.45 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.87 | 1.38 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.89 | 2.73 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.90 | 1.95 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.95 | -1.44 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.97 | 2.70 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.97 | -2.60 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 3.06 | 0.66 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.09 | 1.72 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.22 | 2.23 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.22 | 2.76 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.24 | 2.22 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.31 | 1.42 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.33 | -0.69 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 3.36 | 1.57 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.39 | 3.21 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.46 | 0.86 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.57 | -0.14 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.59 | 1.02 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 4.19 | 4.02 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 4.55 | 4.45 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 107.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |