Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.36 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.52 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.68 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.75 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 1.84 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.84 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 1.87 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.88 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.89 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 1.93 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 1.98 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.12 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.14 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.14 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.16 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.23 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.27 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.27 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.36 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.38 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.38 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.40 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.42 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.44 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.46 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.47 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.48 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.48 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.49 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.53 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.62 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.65 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.65 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.67 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.70 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.94 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.97 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.05 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 3.08 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 3.09 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.18 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 3.27 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.35 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.49 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.83 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.94 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 4.01 | 3.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 4.09 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 4.18 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 4.86 | 3.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |