Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.15 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.20 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 1.49 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 1.52 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.80 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 1.85 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 1.87 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.88 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.91 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.10 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.11 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.14 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.17 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.18 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.21 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.35 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.38 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.42 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.47 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.50 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.54 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.54 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.55 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.63 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.65 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.69 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.70 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.73 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.73 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.74 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.74 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.76 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.77 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.83 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.86 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.87 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.97 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.99 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.10 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 3.14 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.14 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.14 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.17 | -2.70 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.21 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 3.24 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.33 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.48 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.71 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 4.23 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 4.29 | -3.56 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |