Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.41 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.66 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.72 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.82 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 1.87 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.92 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.09 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.20 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.21 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.22 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.26 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.28 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.30 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.30 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.34 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.35 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.39 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.47 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.50 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.52 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.52 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.59 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.65 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.66 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.66 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.68 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.72 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.72 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.73 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.79 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.83 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.89 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.91 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.99 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.99 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 3.01 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 3.02 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 3.04 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.10 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 3.23 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.25 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.30 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.36 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.40 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.45 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.45 | 3.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 3.48 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.71 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 3.98 | 3.70 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 5.04 | 4.93 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 106.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-24 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |