Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 28 | 0.86 | -0.07 | 14.5 |
| Richmond VA | 27 | 0.89 | 0.07 | 14.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 28 | 0.96 | 0.82 | 14.5 |
| Columbus OH | 27 | 1.00 | 0.26 | 14.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 28 | 1.14 | 0.29 | 14.5 |
| Juneau AK | 28 | 1.21 | 0.71 | 14.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 28 | 1.29 | -0.86 | 14.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 28 | 1.36 | 0.64 | 14.5 |
| Nashville TN | 27 | 1.37 | -0.70 | 14.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 27 | 1.41 | -0.96 | 14.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 28 | 1.46 | 0.25 | 14.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 28 | 1.50 | 0.43 | 14.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 27 | 1.52 | 0.85 | 14.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 28 | 1.57 | 0.21 | 14.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 28 | 1.61 | 0.82 | 14.5 |
| Jackson MS | 28 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 14.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 27 | 1.74 | 0.78 | 14.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 28 | 1.82 | -0.18 | 14.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 27 | 1.85 | 1.19 | 14.0 |
| Lansing MI | 28 | 1.86 | 1.50 | 14.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 28 | 1.93 | -1.50 | 14.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 28 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 14.5 |
| Topeka KS | 28 | 2.00 | 1.93 | 14.5 |
| Salem OR | 27 | 2.00 | 1.11 | 14.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 28 | 2.11 | 0.54 | 14.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 28 | 2.18 | -1.61 | 14.5 |
| Madison WI | 27 | 2.26 | 1.52 | 14.0 |
| Springfield IL | 28 | 2.32 | 1.96 | 14.5 |
| Charleston WV | 27 | 2.41 | 2.41 | 14.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 28 | 2.46 | 0.25 | 14.5 |
| Dover DE | 28 | 2.54 | -0.11 | 14.5 |
| Pierre SD | 27 | 2.56 | 2.48 | 14.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 28 | 2.61 | -1.32 | 14.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 28 | 2.79 | 2.71 | 14.5 |
| Hartford CT | 28 | 2.89 | 1.25 | 14.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 28 | 2.89 | 2.89 | 14.5 |
| Columbia SC | 27 | 3.04 | -3.04 | 14.0 |
| Austin TX | 27 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 14.0 |
| Providence RI | 27 | 3.56 | 3.41 | 14.0 |
| Olympia WA | 27 | 3.59 | 0.19 | 14.0 |
| Boston MA | 28 | 3.61 | 3.39 | 14.5 |
| Helena MT | 28 | 3.61 | 2.96 | 14.5 |
| Denver CO | 28 | 3.82 | 3.82 | 14.5 |
| Boise ID | 28 | 4.11 | 3.18 | 14.5 |
| Albany NY | 28 | 4.86 | 2.57 | 14.5 |
| Augusta ME | 28 | 5.07 | 3.50 | 14.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 28 | 5.18 | 4.04 | 14.5 |
| Carson City NV | 28 | 5.32 | 4.61 | 14.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 27 | 5.33 | 2.74 | 14.0 |
| Concord NH | 28 | 5.39 | 3.96 | 14.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 27.0 |