Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 156 | 1.22 | 0.26 | 40.8 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 156 | 1.26 | 0.35 | 40.8 |
| Little Rock AR | 156 | 1.68 | -0.73 | 40.8 |
| Raleigh NC | 156 | 1.69 | 0.07 | 40.8 |
| Honolulu HI | 156 | 1.74 | -0.79 | 40.8 |
| Indianapolis IN | 156 | 1.82 | -0.08 | 40.8 |
| Sacramento CA | 156 | 1.83 | -0.36 | 40.8 |
| Jefferson City MO | 156 | 1.93 | 0.84 | 40.8 |
| Columbus OH | 155 | 2.00 | 1.46 | 40.7 |
| Juneau AK | 156 | 2.03 | 0.14 | 40.8 |
| Des Moines IA | 156 | 2.03 | 1.29 | 40.8 |
| Frankfort KY | 156 | 2.03 | 0.94 | 40.8 |
| Madison WI | 155 | 2.03 | 0.84 | 40.7 |
| Tallahassee FL | 156 | 2.10 | 0.53 | 40.8 |
| Cheyenne WY | 155 | 2.14 | 0.92 | 40.7 |
| Montgomery AL | 156 | 2.23 | 0.17 | 40.8 |
| Atlanta GA | 156 | 2.27 | 0.18 | 40.8 |
| Annapolis MD | 156 | 2.27 | 1.13 | 40.8 |
| Saint Paul MN | 156 | 2.28 | 2.01 | 40.8 |
| Nashville TN | 155 | 2.34 | 0.26 | 40.7 |
| Austin TX | 155 | 2.35 | 1.23 | 40.7 |
| Salem OR | 155 | 2.37 | 1.57 | 40.7 |
| Richmond VA | 155 | 2.43 | 1.64 | 40.7 |
| Springfield IL | 156 | 2.44 | 2.12 | 40.8 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 155 | 2.49 | -0.75 | 40.7 |
| Charleston WV | 155 | 2.59 | 1.71 | 40.7 |
| Topeka KS | 156 | 2.62 | 2.46 | 40.8 |
| Bismarck ND | 156 | 2.65 | 2.16 | 40.8 |
| Trenton NJ | 156 | 2.71 | 2.34 | 40.8 |
| Denver CO | 156 | 2.76 | 1.97 | 40.8 |
| Lansing MI | 156 | 2.81 | 2.38 | 40.8 |
| Carson City NV | 156 | 2.85 | 0.47 | 40.8 |
| Hartford CT | 156 | 2.89 | 1.74 | 40.8 |
| Boise ID | 156 | 2.93 | 1.79 | 40.8 |
| Harrisburg PA | 155 | 2.99 | 2.47 | 40.7 |
| Providence RI | 155 | 3.03 | 2.25 | 40.7 |
| Olympia WA | 155 | 3.08 | 0.95 | 40.7 |
| Columbia SC | 155 | 3.12 | -2.79 | 40.7 |
| Dover DE | 156 | 3.19 | 1.19 | 40.8 |
| Santa Fe NM | 156 | 3.31 | -1.36 | 40.8 |
| Augusta ME | 156 | 3.32 | 1.56 | 40.8 |
| Boston MA | 156 | 3.38 | 2.08 | 40.8 |
| Helena MT | 156 | 3.46 | 2.81 | 40.8 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 155 | 3.57 | 2.92 | 40.7 |
| Lincoln NE | 156 | 3.61 | 3.56 | 40.8 |
| Pierre SD | 155 | 3.61 | 3.52 | 40.7 |
| Albany NY | 156 | 3.81 | 3.19 | 40.8 |
| Phoenix AZ | 156 | 3.90 | 1.25 | 40.8 |
| Concord NH | 156 | 3.96 | 3.01 | 40.8 |
| Montpelier VT | 155 | 4.27 | 1.82 | 40.7 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 77.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 93.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-20 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |