Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.19 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.55 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.80 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 1.80 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 1.89 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 1.89 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.95 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 1.96 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.97 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 1.98 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.12 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.12 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.12 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.14 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.19 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.23 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.23 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.29 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.31 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.32 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.35 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.36 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.36 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.42 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.45 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.54 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.58 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.59 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.62 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.68 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.75 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.76 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.85 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.90 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.94 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.96 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 3.04 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.04 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.08 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.10 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.13 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.25 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.28 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.29 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.41 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 3.46 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.53 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.68 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.71 | 3.59 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.78 | -3.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 65.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 106.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 76.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |