Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.56 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.64 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.64 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 1.86 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 1.86 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 1.91 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.92 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 1.96 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.99 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.03 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.05 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.06 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.13 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.19 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.19 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.23 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.26 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.27 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.27 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.35 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.37 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.41 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.41 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.41 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.45 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.45 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.66 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.68 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.72 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.78 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.80 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 2.82 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.84 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.88 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.91 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.93 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.96 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.99 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.01 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.08 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 3.26 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 3.35 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.56 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.59 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.59 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.60 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.62 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 3.83 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.96 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 4.28 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 104.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 57.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 77.0°F | +18.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 83.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 88.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |