Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.32 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 1.55 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.62 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.64 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 1.74 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 1.81 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.94 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 1.98 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.03 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.07 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.10 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.13 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.14 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.14 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.17 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.26 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.28 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.32 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.32 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.36 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.37 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.43 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.43 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.49 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.51 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.52 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.52 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.53 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.57 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.57 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.59 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.65 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.67 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.73 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.74 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.77 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.78 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.85 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.97 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.01 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.01 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.12 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 3.16 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.16 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.28 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.31 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.32 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.48 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.56 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 3.68 | 3.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 65.0°F | 57.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 113.0°F | 111.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 100.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 95.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 67.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 106.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |