Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.32 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.49 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.52 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.87 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.02 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.03 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.07 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.07 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.15 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.15 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.17 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.17 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.17 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.18 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.21 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.23 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.23 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.26 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.30 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.30 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.30 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.34 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.37 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.38 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.39 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.39 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.43 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.54 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.56 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.59 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.62 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.63 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.64 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.73 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.73 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.90 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 3.08 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.08 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.10 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.13 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.22 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.31 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 3.61 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.68 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 3.85 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.97 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 4.06 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 4.09 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 4.12 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 5.88 | 3.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 40.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 56.0°F | 48.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 57.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 38.0°F | 33.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |