Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.46 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.61 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 1.63 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 1.87 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.94 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.06 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.06 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.14 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.16 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.17 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.21 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.21 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.23 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.23 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.27 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.29 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.29 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.31 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.33 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.33 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.35 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.38 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.40 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.40 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.43 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.44 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.45 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.50 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.53 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.53 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.55 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.59 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.62 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.64 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.66 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.73 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.79 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.89 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.90 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.94 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.96 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.99 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.00 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.04 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.11 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.12 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.26 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.27 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.39 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.41 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 107.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |