Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
24183
1160832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.50°
8900 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-03 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 178 1.44 -0.42 48.0
Honolulu HI 178 1.64 -1.39 48.0
Salem OR 178 1.66 0.75 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 178 1.85 1.20 48.0
Raleigh NC 178 1.95 0.04 48.0
Boston MA 178 2.07 0.38 48.0
Providence RI 178 2.07 -0.69 48.0
Charleston WV 178 2.10 1.49 48.0
Little Rock AR 178 2.11 -0.62 48.0
Trenton NJ 178 2.13 -1.25 48.0
Nashville TN 178 2.15 0.60 48.0
Sacramento CA 178 2.19 2.02 48.0
Lansing MI 178 2.24 0.69 48.0
Saint Paul MN 178 2.25 0.11 48.0
Jefferson City MO 178 2.25 1.26 48.0
Carson City NV 178 2.25 1.48 48.0
Jackson MS 178 2.26 0.93 48.0
Annapolis MD 178 2.29 0.69 48.0
Augusta ME 178 2.30 -1.83 48.0
Harrisburg PA 178 2.35 -0.47 48.0
Helena MT 178 2.36 -0.36 48.0
Columbus OH 178 2.37 0.40 48.0
Austin TX 178 2.37 2.34 48.0
Atlanta GA 178 2.41 0.46 48.0
Topeka KS 178 2.47 1.18 48.0
Juneau AK 178 2.49 1.01 48.0
Hartford CT 178 2.50 -1.68 48.0
Lincoln NE 178 2.50 1.47 48.0
Des Moines IA 178 2.53 -0.07 48.0
Dover DE 178 2.54 -0.87 48.0
Indianapolis IN 178 2.54 1.01 48.0
Phoenix AZ 178 2.56 -1.29 48.0
Montpelier VT 178 2.61 1.38 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 178 2.65 1.53 48.0
Pierre SD 178 2.69 1.24 48.0
Madison WI 178 2.76 1.30 48.0
Albany NY 178 2.79 -0.57 48.0
Springfield IL 178 2.85 2.26 48.0
Olympia WA 178 2.90 -0.97 48.0
Montgomery AL 178 2.92 -1.07 48.0
Bismarck ND 178 3.01 0.43 48.0
Columbia SC 178 3.02 0.33 48.0
Tallahassee FL 178 3.03 0.49 48.0
Boise ID 178 3.04 -0.02 48.0
Denver CO 178 3.07 1.34 48.0
Frankfort KY 178 3.11 2.45 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 178 3.29 1.03 48.0
Cheyenne WY 178 3.33 0.46 48.0
Concord NH 178 3.40 -2.03 48.0
Santa Fe NM 178 3.48 -1.85 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 102.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 MDT Denver CO 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 69.0°F 76.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 78.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 MDT Boise ID 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 64.0°F 69.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 76.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 MDT Helena MT 56.0°F 62.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Concord NH 65.0°F 71.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Albany NY 68.0°F 74.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 02:00 PDT Salem OR 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Providence RI 69.0°F 76.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-03 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0