Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.39 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.50 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.50 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.69 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.82 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 1.96 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.01 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.05 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.08 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.16 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.18 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.20 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.21 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.30 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.32 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.33 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.33 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.34 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.36 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.36 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.43 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.44 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.44 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.47 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.48 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.60 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.61 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.73 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.74 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.74 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.74 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.83 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.89 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.98 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.99 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.99 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 3.05 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 3.06 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.17 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 3.20 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.25 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.30 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.45 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.53 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.54 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.57 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.85 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.97 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.98 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 4.01 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 30.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 46.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 36.0°F | 32.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |