Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.29 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.47 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.52 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.81 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 1.94 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.97 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.02 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.06 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.11 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.17 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.19 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.23 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.27 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.28 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.30 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.31 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.31 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.33 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.35 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.36 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.44 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.45 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.50 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.52 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.55 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.55 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.59 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.60 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.71 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.73 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.77 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.80 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.82 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.82 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.90 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.91 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.03 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 3.07 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.07 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.07 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.19 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.36 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.64 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 3.67 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 3.72 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.74 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.77 | 3.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 4.41 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 4.46 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 5.74 | 3.94 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 41.0°F | 48.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 34.0°F | 38.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 32.0°F | 30.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 38.0°F | 30.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 39.0°F | 36.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-19 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |