Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.12 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.45 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.52 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.89 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.97 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.03 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.07 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.14 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.19 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.20 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.22 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.26 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.27 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.28 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.30 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.34 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.34 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.40 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.41 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.42 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.45 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.46 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.48 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.49 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.52 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.54 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.54 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.58 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.59 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.72 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.79 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.88 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.90 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.94 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 2.98 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 3.04 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.05 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.10 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 3.13 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 3.15 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 3.19 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.24 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.35 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.35 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.44 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.58 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.73 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.92 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 4.16 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 4.40 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 39.0°F | 48.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 55.0°F | 48.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 35.0°F | 41.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 50.0°F | 57.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 41.0°F | 47.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 35.0°F | 31.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 37.0°F | 41.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 39.0°F | 48.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |