Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.43 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.79 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 1.86 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.94 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.98 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.00 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.01 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.02 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.04 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.06 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.16 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.26 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.31 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.31 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.36 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.36 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.37 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.39 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.42 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.42 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.50 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.54 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.54 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.55 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.55 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.58 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.60 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.63 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.63 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.68 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.71 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.71 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.79 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.80 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.83 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.85 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.85 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.99 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 3.01 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.05 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.07 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 3.09 | -2.90 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 3.09 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 3.10 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.20 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.28 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.39 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 3.42 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.62 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 4.07 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 07:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 MST | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 MST | Boise ID | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 46.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Topeka KS | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 MST | Helena MT | 36.0°F | 35.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 44.0°F | 38.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 PST | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 34.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 08:00 PST | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 EST | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |