Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.44 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.46 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.79 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.80 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.04 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.06 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.08 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.13 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.14 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.17 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.17 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.20 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.24 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.27 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.34 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.35 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.36 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.37 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.39 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.42 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.45 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.50 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.52 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.59 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.59 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.64 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.65 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.70 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.86 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.94 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.94 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.95 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.98 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.05 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.09 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.11 | -2.82 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 3.15 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.15 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.19 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.31 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 3.34 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.41 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.42 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.45 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.48 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.50 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.64 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.75 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.92 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 4.01 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 35.0°F | 24.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 34.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 40.0°F | 36.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 56.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 33.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |