Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
14083
676032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
9600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-25 23:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 192 1.66 0.76 48.0
Honolulu HI 192 1.73 -1.29 48.0
Little Rock AR 192 1.79 -0.35 48.0
Jackson MS 192 1.79 1.05 48.0
Providence RI 192 1.93 0.34 48.0
Hartford CT 192 1.95 0.18 48.0
Charleston WV 192 1.96 -0.49 48.0
Trenton NJ 192 1.97 0.35 48.0
Indianapolis IN 192 1.98 -0.13 48.0
Atlanta GA 192 2.02 0.73 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 192 2.11 1.39 48.0
Augusta ME 192 2.14 0.22 48.0
Tallahassee FL 192 2.18 0.48 48.0
Columbus OH 192 2.21 1.32 48.0
Lansing MI 192 2.22 1.24 48.0
Albany NY 192 2.25 1.05 48.0
Jefferson City MO 192 2.33 1.07 48.0
Concord NH 192 2.43 0.80 48.0
Juneau AK 192 2.44 0.29 48.0
Montgomery AL 192 2.50 1.02 48.0
Nashville TN 192 2.54 0.38 48.0
Dover DE 192 2.55 0.36 48.0
Boston MA 192 2.55 1.15 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 192 2.58 -1.42 48.0
Richmond VA 192 2.58 0.83 48.0
Raleigh NC 192 2.61 0.64 48.0
Annapolis MD 192 2.66 1.03 48.0
Frankfort KY 192 2.69 1.91 48.0
Saint Paul MN 192 2.69 2.29 48.0
Harrisburg PA 192 2.70 0.89 48.0
Carson City NV 192 2.76 0.34 48.0
Topeka KS 192 2.77 1.86 48.0
Springfield IL 192 2.80 2.63 48.0
Columbia SC 192 2.81 -1.93 48.0
Sacramento CA 192 2.85 0.44 48.0
Des Moines IA 192 2.87 2.03 48.0
Cheyenne WY 192 2.89 0.13 48.0
Salem OR 192 2.93 1.17 48.0
Madison WI 192 2.95 1.91 48.0
Santa Fe NM 192 3.07 -0.45 48.0
Boise ID 192 3.08 2.65 48.0
Helena MT 192 3.09 2.26 48.0
Montpelier VT 192 3.22 1.35 48.0
Phoenix AZ 192 3.31 -0.73 48.0
Olympia WA 192 3.32 -0.52 48.0
Denver CO 192 3.47 1.27 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 192 3.47 3.11 48.0
Lincoln NE 192 3.60 2.62 48.0
Bismarck ND 192 3.60 2.98 48.0
Pierre SD 192 5.02 4.30 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 15:00 AKDT Juneau AK 64.0°F 71.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 16:00 MST Phoenix AZ 114.0°F 112.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Little Rock AR 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 16:00 PDT Sacramento CA 93.0°F 96.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 17:00 MDT Denver CO 94.0°F 98.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Atlanta GA 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 13:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 17:00 MDT Boise ID 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Springfield IL 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 82.0°F 73.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Des Moines IA 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Topeka KS 92.0°F 97.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Frankfort KY 83.0°F 72.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Augusta ME 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Annapolis MD 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Lansing MI 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 93.0°F 85.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 17:00 MDT Helena MT 96.0°F 99.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Lincoln NE 94.0°F 98.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 16:00 PDT Carson City NV 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Concord NH 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 17:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Albany NY 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Raleigh NC 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Bismarck ND 101.0°F 101.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Columbus OH 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 97.0°F 100.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 16:00 PDT Salem OR 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Providence RI 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 19:00 EDT Columbia SC 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0