Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.46 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.61 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 1.64 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 1.87 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.90 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.07 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.09 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.10 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.14 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.15 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.16 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.18 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.22 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.23 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.24 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.25 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.26 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.30 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.31 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.33 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.36 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.37 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.40 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.41 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.42 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.45 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.47 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.52 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.52 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.54 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.55 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.60 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.65 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.66 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.66 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.74 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.82 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.85 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.93 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.96 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.96 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.99 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.01 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.01 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.05 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.08 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.26 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.29 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.42 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.46 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 100.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |