Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
6683
320832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.65°
6634 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-19 19:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 133 1.16 0.03 39.5
Baton Rouge LA 133 1.31 0.30 39.5
Raleigh NC 133 1.60 0.32 39.5
Little Rock AR 133 1.65 -0.57 39.5
Jefferson City MO 133 1.65 0.38 39.5
Honolulu HI 133 1.67 -0.57 39.5
Sacramento CA 133 1.71 0.02 39.5
Cheyenne WY 132 1.71 0.35 39.5
Indianapolis IN 133 1.89 0.04 39.5
Madison WI 132 1.89 0.67 39.5
Des Moines IA 133 1.95 1.17 39.5
Juneau AK 133 1.98 -0.07 39.5
Frankfort KY 133 1.98 1.07 39.5
Tallahassee FL 133 2.00 0.41 39.5
Montgomery AL 133 2.06 -0.36 39.5
Columbus OH 132 2.08 1.48 39.5
Saint Paul MN 133 2.20 1.89 39.5
Annapolis MD 133 2.23 0.95 39.5
Nashville TN 132 2.27 -0.07 39.5
Atlanta GA 133 2.35 -0.08 39.5
Springfield IL 133 2.35 1.98 39.5
Salem OR 132 2.45 1.94 39.5
Salt Lake City UT 132 2.45 -0.41 39.5
Richmond VA 132 2.47 1.74 39.5
Austin TX 132 2.52 1.33 39.5
Bismarck ND 133 2.68 2.19 39.5
Trenton NJ 133 2.74 2.31 39.5
Charleston WV 132 2.75 1.80 39.5
Lansing MI 133 2.81 2.32 39.5
Carson City NV 133 2.82 0.89 39.5
Boise ID 133 2.86 1.56 39.5
Topeka KS 133 2.87 2.78 39.5
Denver CO 133 2.94 2.37 39.5
Santa Fe NM 133 2.99 -0.72 39.5
Columbia SC 132 3.00 -2.61 39.5
Hartford CT 133 3.04 2.20 39.5
Olympia WA 132 3.12 1.29 39.5
Harrisburg PA 132 3.15 2.56 39.5
Providence RI 132 3.30 2.85 39.5
Dover DE 133 3.35 1.08 39.5
Pierre SD 132 3.53 3.50 39.5
Boston MA 133 3.56 2.84 39.5
Oklahoma City OK 132 3.58 2.82 39.5
Augusta ME 133 3.61 1.83 39.5
Lincoln NE 133 3.68 3.62 39.5
Helena MT 133 3.77 3.04 39.5
Phoenix AZ 133 3.81 2.23 39.5
Albany NY 133 4.24 3.59 39.5
Concord NH 133 4.32 3.44 39.5
Montpelier VT 132 4.44 2.39 39.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Montgomery AL 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 11:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 12:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Little Rock AR 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 12:00 PDT Sacramento CA 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 13:00 MDT Denver CO 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Dover DE 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 86.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 09:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 83.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 13:00 MDT Boise ID 91.0°F 86.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Springfield IL 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Des Moines IA 90.0°F 84.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Topeka KS 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Frankfort KY 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Augusta ME 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Annapolis MD 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Boston MA 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Lansing MI 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Jackson MS 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 13:00 MDT Helena MT 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Lincoln NE 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 12:00 PDT Carson City NV 87.0°F 91.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Concord NH 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Trenton NJ 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 13:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Albany NY 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Raleigh NC 91.0°F 82.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Bismarck ND 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Columbus OH 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 14:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 12:00 PDT Salem OR 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Providence RI 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 15:00 EDT Columbia SC 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0