Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.35 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.44 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.73 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 1.81 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 1.87 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.92 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 1.93 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 1.93 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.99 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.20 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.21 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.21 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.28 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.31 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.32 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.36 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.38 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.40 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.41 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.42 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.45 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.46 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.47 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.47 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.52 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.53 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.54 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.63 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.64 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 2.67 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.72 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.72 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.74 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.84 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.85 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.87 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.96 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.02 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 3.04 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 3.11 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.14 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.17 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 3.17 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.36 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.52 | 3.18 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.59 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.65 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 4.37 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 4.57 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 52.0°F | 44.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 39.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 61.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |