Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.66 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.73 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.79 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.79 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 1.93 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 1.95 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 1.96 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.97 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.98 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.02 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.11 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.14 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.18 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.21 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.22 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.25 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.33 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.43 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.44 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.50 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.54 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.55 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.55 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.58 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.58 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.61 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.66 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.69 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.69 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.70 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.76 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.77 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.80 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.81 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.85 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.87 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.89 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.93 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.95 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.07 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 3.08 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.09 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.22 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.31 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.32 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.47 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.47 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.60 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.60 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 5.02 | 4.30 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 64.0°F | 71.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 114.0°F | 112.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 94.0°F | 98.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 97.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 72.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 93.0°F | 85.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 96.0°F | 99.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 98.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 101.0°F | 101.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 100.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-25 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |