Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
19183
920832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.56°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-30 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 174 1.21 -0.63 48.0
Providence RI 174 1.61 -0.34 48.0
Jackson MS 174 1.67 0.94 48.0
Richmond VA 174 1.73 -0.18 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 174 1.80 1.37 48.0
Little Rock AR 174 1.82 0.09 48.0
Trenton NJ 174 1.91 0.07 48.0
Augusta ME 174 1.94 -1.05 48.0
Carson City NV 174 1.96 0.64 48.0
Boston MA 174 1.97 1.23 48.0
Hartford CT 174 2.06 -0.39 48.0
Charleston WV 174 2.12 0.58 48.0
Concord NH 174 2.20 0.32 48.0
Lansing MI 174 2.21 1.19 48.0
Columbus OH 174 2.25 1.80 48.0
Harrisburg PA 174 2.25 -0.26 48.0
Atlanta GA 174 2.26 0.55 48.0
Helena MT 174 2.26 0.56 48.0
Jefferson City MO 174 2.29 0.21 48.0
Annapolis MD 174 2.30 0.92 48.0
Raleigh NC 174 2.34 1.63 48.0
Lincoln NE 174 2.41 -0.04 48.0
Austin TX 174 2.41 2.28 48.0
Dover DE 174 2.48 0.19 48.0
Sacramento CA 174 2.50 2.14 48.0
Tallahassee FL 174 2.53 0.17 48.0
Des Moines IA 174 2.53 -0.40 48.0
Montgomery AL 174 2.54 0.78 48.0
Juneau AK 174 2.56 0.72 48.0
Albany NY 174 2.56 0.64 48.0
Springfield IL 174 2.58 2.09 48.0
Nashville TN 174 2.60 0.07 48.0
Olympia WA 174 2.66 -0.76 48.0
Salem OR 174 2.69 2.21 48.0
Saint Paul MN 174 2.75 1.52 48.0
Indianapolis IN 174 2.78 1.72 48.0
Phoenix AZ 174 2.92 -0.75 48.0
Santa Fe NM 174 2.92 -0.60 48.0
Topeka KS 174 2.99 0.68 48.0
Montpelier VT 174 3.08 2.14 48.0
Boise ID 174 3.11 2.51 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 174 3.12 -0.19 48.0
Columbia SC 174 3.17 -1.19 48.0
Madison WI 174 3.17 1.32 48.0
Cheyenne WY 174 3.53 0.91 48.0
Pierre SD 174 3.54 2.13 48.0
Denver CO 174 3.72 2.20 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 174 3.77 3.30 48.0
Frankfort KY 174 3.94 3.61 48.0
Bismarck ND 174 4.11 3.09 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 77.0°F 83.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 102.0°F 105.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 MDT Denver CO 75.0°F 68.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 MDT Boise ID 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 MDT Helena MT 75.0°F 81.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Concord NH 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Albany NY 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 22:00 PDT Salem OR 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Providence RI 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 76.0°F 82.0°F -6.0° 48.0