Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.21 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.58 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.70 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.72 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 1.77 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.81 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.93 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 1.97 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 1.98 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 1.99 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.09 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.10 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.18 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.22 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.24 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.25 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.26 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.29 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.30 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.33 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.38 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.38 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.48 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.48 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.49 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.51 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.52 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.59 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.60 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.61 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.62 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.62 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.64 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.71 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.77 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.92 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.92 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.98 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.03 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 3.12 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 3.17 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 3.18 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.19 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.50 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.54 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.72 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.80 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 3.85 | 3.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 4.04 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 46.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 100.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 66.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |