Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.41 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 1.48 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.84 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.88 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 1.97 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.00 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.05 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.07 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.10 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.10 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.14 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.19 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.22 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.23 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.24 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.26 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.27 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.36 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.37 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.40 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.46 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.47 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.48 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.49 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.51 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.54 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.54 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.58 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.61 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.66 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.67 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.68 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.71 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.75 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.75 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.85 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.86 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.88 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 2.90 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.05 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.10 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 3.28 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 3.29 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.49 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.74 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.81 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.99 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 4.30 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 4.32 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 4.32 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 35.0°F | 40.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 35.0°F | 31.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 39.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |