Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.34 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 1.59 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 1.65 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 1.66 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 1.66 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 1.84 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.95 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 1.98 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.99 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 1.99 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 2.03 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.06 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.11 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.17 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.20 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.23 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.23 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.27 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.30 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.31 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.36 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.37 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.42 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.47 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.49 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.51 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.53 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.56 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.56 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.58 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.65 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.65 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.66 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.67 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.71 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.77 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.84 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.87 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.96 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 3.02 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 3.04 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.05 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.11 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.27 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.28 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.35 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 3.40 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.57 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.61 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 3.77 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 96.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 69.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 72.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |