Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.65 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.70 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.78 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 1.82 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.83 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 1.87 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.88 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 1.92 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.94 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 1.94 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 1.95 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.96 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 1.99 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.04 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.15 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.21 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.22 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.24 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.24 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.34 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.37 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.45 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.45 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.46 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.49 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.52 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.65 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.68 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.69 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.78 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.78 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.85 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.86 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.86 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.89 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.92 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.99 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.01 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.08 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.09 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 3.18 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.22 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 3.36 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.36 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.41 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.46 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 3.54 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.58 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.77 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.96 | -3.08 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 98.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 87.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 66.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 61.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 65.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |