Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.40 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 1.47 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.88 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.91 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 1.96 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.00 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.02 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.08 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.12 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.13 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.13 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.17 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.23 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.24 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.25 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.25 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.28 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.40 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.42 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.44 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.46 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.46 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.49 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.49 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.49 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.52 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.58 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.58 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.65 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.66 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.70 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.70 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.71 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.73 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.74 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.82 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.90 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.94 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.96 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.01 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.20 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 3.26 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 3.35 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.48 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.73 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.79 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 4.02 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 4.24 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 4.37 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 4.39 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 60.0°F | 51.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 46.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 33.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 39.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |