Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.53 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.58 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 1.66 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 1.78 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.90 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.93 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.96 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 1.98 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.01 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.02 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.07 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.08 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.09 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.10 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.18 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.25 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.26 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.29 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.36 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.36 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.41 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.46 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.50 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.53 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.55 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.61 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.62 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.70 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.75 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.80 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.83 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.84 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.87 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.89 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.98 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.00 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 3.03 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 3.07 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 3.11 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 3.12 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.19 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.32 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.34 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.41 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.45 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.45 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.49 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.71 | 3.23 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.93 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 4.38 | 3.38 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 84.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 69.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 79.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 76.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 75.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 81.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 55.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 78.0°F | 66.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 81.0°F | 66.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 77.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 66.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 77.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |