Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 89 | 1.18 | 0.37 | 35.3 |
| Raleigh NC | 89 | 1.24 | 0.11 | 35.3 |
| Jackson MS | 89 | 1.26 | -0.11 | 35.3 |
| Columbus OH | 88 | 1.44 | 0.78 | 35.2 |
| Honolulu HI | 89 | 1.52 | 0.10 | 35.3 |
| Cheyenne WY | 88 | 1.63 | 0.31 | 35.2 |
| Madison WI | 88 | 1.64 | 0.89 | 35.2 |
| Tallahassee FL | 89 | 1.75 | -0.09 | 35.3 |
| Little Rock AR | 89 | 1.78 | -0.22 | 35.3 |
| Jefferson City MO | 89 | 1.87 | 0.94 | 35.3 |
| Juneau AK | 89 | 1.93 | 0.81 | 35.3 |
| Sacramento CA | 89 | 1.94 | -0.21 | 35.3 |
| Indianapolis IN | 89 | 1.96 | 0.40 | 35.3 |
| Des Moines IA | 89 | 2.00 | 0.90 | 35.3 |
| Frankfort KY | 89 | 2.04 | 0.67 | 35.3 |
| Annapolis MD | 89 | 2.07 | 0.97 | 35.3 |
| Montgomery AL | 89 | 2.20 | -1.03 | 35.3 |
| Nashville TN | 88 | 2.32 | 0.07 | 35.2 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 88 | 2.34 | -0.14 | 35.2 |
| Pierre SD | 88 | 2.41 | 2.36 | 35.2 |
| Richmond VA | 88 | 2.41 | 2.02 | 35.2 |
| Harrisburg PA | 88 | 2.43 | 1.66 | 35.2 |
| Springfield IL | 89 | 2.47 | 2.11 | 35.3 |
| Atlanta GA | 89 | 2.60 | -0.96 | 35.3 |
| Saint Paul MN | 89 | 2.60 | 2.21 | 35.3 |
| Bismarck ND | 89 | 2.63 | 2.25 | 35.3 |
| Salem OR | 88 | 2.84 | 2.32 | 35.2 |
| Charleston WV | 88 | 2.85 | 2.74 | 35.2 |
| Topeka KS | 89 | 2.94 | 2.88 | 35.3 |
| Trenton NJ | 89 | 2.96 | 2.64 | 35.3 |
| Santa Fe NM | 89 | 2.98 | -1.56 | 35.3 |
| Denver CO | 89 | 3.11 | 2.57 | 35.3 |
| Carson City NV | 89 | 3.11 | 2.03 | 35.3 |
| Lansing MI | 89 | 3.17 | 2.83 | 35.3 |
| Helena MT | 89 | 3.18 | 2.19 | 35.3 |
| Olympia WA | 88 | 3.19 | 0.49 | 35.2 |
| Boise ID | 89 | 3.29 | 1.47 | 35.3 |
| Dover DE | 89 | 3.33 | 1.33 | 35.3 |
| Austin TX | 88 | 3.35 | 2.31 | 35.2 |
| Hartford CT | 89 | 3.37 | 2.58 | 35.3 |
| Columbia SC | 88 | 3.38 | -3.22 | 35.2 |
| Providence RI | 88 | 3.43 | 3.32 | 35.2 |
| Augusta ME | 89 | 3.54 | 1.45 | 35.3 |
| Boston MA | 89 | 3.65 | 3.13 | 35.3 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 88 | 3.66 | 2.55 | 35.2 |
| Lincoln NE | 89 | 4.12 | 4.12 | 35.3 |
| Phoenix AZ | 89 | 4.30 | 3.16 | 35.3 |
| Concord NH | 89 | 4.63 | 3.93 | 35.3 |
| Montpelier VT | 88 | 4.75 | 2.09 | 35.2 |
| Albany NY | 89 | 4.80 | 3.92 | 35.3 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 94.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 75.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 90.0°F | 82.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-17 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |