Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.33 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 1.58 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.64 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.65 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.69 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 1.84 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.95 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.00 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.01 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.03 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.08 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.10 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.11 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.17 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.21 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.21 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.24 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.26 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.28 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.30 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.35 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.36 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.45 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.48 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.51 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.51 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.52 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.53 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.55 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.55 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.61 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.64 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.64 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.68 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.72 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.73 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.82 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.88 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 3.00 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.01 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.04 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.09 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.11 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.23 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.28 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.32 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.36 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.55 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.58 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.73 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 74.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-31 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |