Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.11 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.49 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 1.64 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.68 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 1.71 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 1.86 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 1.89 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.97 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.03 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.07 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.10 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.11 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.11 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.16 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.19 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.21 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.24 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.30 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.34 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.39 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.41 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.41 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.42 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.47 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.52 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.53 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.54 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.56 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.57 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.66 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.81 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.89 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.90 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.90 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.93 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.98 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.11 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.13 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.13 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.13 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.15 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.18 | -2.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.27 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.29 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.30 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.50 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.64 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 3.71 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.97 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.97 | -3.36 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 101.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 67.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |