Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
23333
1120032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.52°
9250 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-02 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 185 1.35 -0.38 48.0
Honolulu HI 185 1.56 -1.25 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 1.58 0.89 48.0
Salem OR 185 1.71 0.72 48.0
Providence RI 185 1.85 -0.54 48.0
Jackson MS 185 1.90 0.56 48.0
Raleigh NC 185 1.99 0.52 48.0
Nashville TN 185 2.11 0.24 48.0
Little Rock AR 185 2.12 -0.88 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 2.16 0.63 48.0
Charleston WV 185 2.16 1.18 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.18 0.66 48.0
Trenton NJ 185 2.18 -0.69 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 2.20 1.99 48.0
Saint Paul MN 185 2.25 0.44 48.0
Augusta ME 185 2.29 -1.57 48.0
Harrisburg PA 185 2.30 -0.71 48.0
Lansing MI 185 2.31 0.63 48.0
Carson City NV 185 2.32 1.51 48.0
Helena MT 185 2.36 -0.16 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.38 0.76 48.0
Jefferson City MO 185 2.41 0.90 48.0
Austin TX 185 2.41 2.40 48.0
Hartford CT 185 2.42 -1.27 48.0
Lincoln NE 185 2.46 0.92 48.0
Dover DE 185 2.50 -0.40 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 2.51 -0.13 48.0
Indianapolis IN 185 2.58 1.35 48.0
Columbus OH 185 2.66 0.65 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 2.71 1.58 48.0
Juneau AK 185 2.73 0.77 48.0
Olympia WA 185 2.75 -1.49 48.0
Topeka KS 185 2.76 0.74 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 2.77 -0.52 48.0
Springfield IL 185 2.78 2.09 48.0
Albany NY 185 2.78 -0.26 48.0
Madison WI 185 2.81 1.14 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 185 2.84 1.66 48.0
Pierre SD 185 2.90 1.79 48.0
Columbia SC 185 2.97 -0.09 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 2.99 0.40 48.0
Montgomery AL 185 3.04 -0.61 48.0
Denver CO 185 3.05 1.44 48.0
Bismarck ND 185 3.12 0.84 48.0
Boise ID 185 3.20 0.16 48.0
Santa Fe NM 185 3.21 -1.56 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 3.24 0.49 48.0
Concord NH 185 3.26 -1.50 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 3.37 0.62 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 3.46 2.84 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 101.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 10:00 MDT Denver CO 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Dover DE 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 10:00 MDT Boise ID 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 68.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Boston MA 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 84.0°F 77.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 10:00 MDT Helena MT 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Concord NH 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 09:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Providence RI 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-02 12:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0