Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.29 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.32 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 1.56 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 1.66 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 1.69 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.76 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.78 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 1.80 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 1.85 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.96 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.98 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.06 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.23 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.24 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.27 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.28 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.39 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.46 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.50 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.52 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.53 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.54 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.57 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.59 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.60 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.63 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.69 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.70 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.73 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.76 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.81 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.83 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.91 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.91 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.92 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.94 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.97 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.98 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.98 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.09 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.10 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.13 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.20 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.27 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.44 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.53 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.67 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 3.68 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.97 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 4.26 | -3.60 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 68.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |