Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 120 | 1.17 | -0.08 | 38.6 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 120 | 1.27 | 0.23 | 38.6 |
| Honolulu HI | 120 | 1.59 | -0.38 | 38.6 |
| Raleigh NC | 120 | 1.60 | 0.18 | 38.6 |
| Cheyenne WY | 119 | 1.69 | 0.51 | 38.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 120 | 1.71 | -0.56 | 38.6 |
| Jefferson City MO | 120 | 1.73 | 0.49 | 38.6 |
| Sacramento CA | 120 | 1.77 | 0.00 | 38.6 |
| Madison WI | 119 | 1.82 | 0.48 | 38.5 |
| Juneau AK | 120 | 1.85 | 0.27 | 38.6 |
| Des Moines IA | 120 | 1.97 | 1.13 | 38.6 |
| Frankfort KY | 120 | 1.97 | 0.95 | 38.6 |
| Montgomery AL | 120 | 1.98 | -0.70 | 38.6 |
| Indianapolis IN | 120 | 2.03 | 0.08 | 38.6 |
| Tallahassee FL | 120 | 2.08 | 0.40 | 38.6 |
| Columbus OH | 119 | 2.12 | 1.46 | 38.5 |
| Nashville TN | 119 | 2.27 | 0.13 | 38.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 120 | 2.31 | 0.91 | 38.6 |
| Saint Paul MN | 120 | 2.33 | 2.01 | 38.6 |
| Springfield IL | 120 | 2.40 | 2.05 | 38.6 |
| Atlanta GA | 120 | 2.43 | -0.27 | 38.6 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 119 | 2.45 | -0.20 | 38.5 |
| Richmond VA | 119 | 2.50 | 2.08 | 38.5 |
| Salem OR | 119 | 2.56 | 2.09 | 38.5 |
| Carson City NV | 120 | 2.68 | 1.43 | 38.6 |
| Austin TX | 119 | 2.71 | 1.52 | 38.5 |
| Lansing MI | 120 | 2.82 | 2.27 | 38.6 |
| Charleston WV | 119 | 2.82 | 2.21 | 38.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 120 | 2.87 | 2.40 | 38.6 |
| Bismarck ND | 120 | 2.88 | 2.46 | 38.6 |
| Boise ID | 120 | 2.92 | 1.50 | 38.6 |
| Denver CO | 120 | 2.99 | 2.46 | 38.6 |
| Topeka KS | 120 | 3.04 | 2.98 | 38.6 |
| Santa Fe NM | 120 | 3.06 | -0.78 | 38.6 |
| Columbia SC | 119 | 3.13 | -2.70 | 38.5 |
| Hartford CT | 120 | 3.22 | 2.33 | 38.6 |
| Olympia WA | 119 | 3.24 | 1.24 | 38.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 119 | 3.29 | 2.71 | 38.5 |
| Pierre SD | 119 | 3.34 | 3.30 | 38.5 |
| Providence RI | 119 | 3.45 | 2.96 | 38.5 |
| Dover DE | 120 | 3.61 | 1.14 | 38.6 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 119 | 3.71 | 2.87 | 38.5 |
| Boston MA | 120 | 3.73 | 2.98 | 38.6 |
| Augusta ME | 120 | 3.77 | 1.89 | 38.6 |
| Helena MT | 120 | 3.83 | 3.03 | 38.6 |
| Lincoln NE | 120 | 3.98 | 3.96 | 38.6 |
| Phoenix AZ | 120 | 4.05 | 2.58 | 38.6 |
| Concord NH | 120 | 4.46 | 3.83 | 38.6 |
| Albany NY | 120 | 4.58 | 3.88 | 38.6 |
| Montpelier VT | 119 | 4.76 | 2.54 | 38.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |