Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.22 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.61 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.69 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 1.70 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.73 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.87 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.91 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 1.96 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.05 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.06 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.06 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.11 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.17 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.21 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.24 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.24 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.24 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.26 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.28 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.32 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.36 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.37 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.39 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.40 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.44 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.46 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.49 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.49 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.55 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.57 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.60 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.60 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.64 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.65 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.68 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.69 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.87 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.89 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.96 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.04 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.05 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 3.06 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 3.12 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.26 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.47 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.58 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.62 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.70 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.78 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.94 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 106.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 96.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 79.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 79.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |