Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.27 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.58 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 1.80 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.84 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 1.87 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.89 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 1.91 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.95 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.09 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.09 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.09 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.16 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.18 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.19 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.25 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.27 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.27 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.28 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.28 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.29 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.29 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.30 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.42 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.49 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.49 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.50 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.63 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.64 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.67 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.67 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.82 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.83 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.87 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.88 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.91 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.92 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 2.99 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.01 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.01 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.05 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 3.12 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 3.17 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.18 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.29 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.39 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 3.43 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.48 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.61 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.67 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 3.69 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 41.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 68.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |