Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 17 | 0.76 | -0.41 | 9.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 17 | 0.82 | -0.12 | 9.0 |
| Columbus OH | 16 | 0.94 | 0.31 | 8.5 |
| Richmond VA | 16 | 0.94 | 0.44 | 8.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 17 | 1.06 | 0.82 | 9.0 |
| Juneau AK | 17 | 1.12 | 0.41 | 9.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 17 | 1.12 | 0.76 | 9.0 |
| Pierre SD | 16 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 8.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 16 | 1.13 | 0.13 | 8.5 |
| Nashville TN | 16 | 1.19 | -0.31 | 8.5 |
| Charleston WV | 16 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 8.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 17 | 1.53 | 0.12 | 9.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 17 | 1.53 | 1.06 | 9.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 17 | 1.59 | 1.24 | 9.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 17 | 1.65 | -1.06 | 9.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 17 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 9.0 |
| Madison WI | 16 | 1.69 | 0.44 | 8.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 16 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 8.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 17 | 1.76 | 0.71 | 9.0 |
| Jackson MS | 17 | 1.76 | 1.06 | 9.0 |
| Springfield IL | 17 | 1.82 | 1.24 | 9.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 17 | 1.88 | 1.76 | 9.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 16 | 1.88 | -1.38 | 8.5 |
| Columbia SC | 16 | 1.94 | -1.94 | 8.5 |
| Topeka KS | 17 | 2.00 | 1.88 | 9.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 17 | 2.06 | 1.71 | 9.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 17 | 2.18 | -2.18 | 9.0 |
| Salem OR | 16 | 2.19 | 1.19 | 8.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 16 | 2.19 | 1.44 | 8.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 17 | 2.24 | 1.53 | 9.0 |
| Lansing MI | 17 | 2.47 | 2.12 | 9.0 |
| Dover DE | 17 | 2.53 | 1.47 | 9.0 |
| Helena MT | 17 | 2.53 | 1.47 | 9.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 17 | 2.76 | 1.71 | 9.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 17 | 2.82 | -2.00 | 9.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 17 | 2.88 | 2.88 | 9.0 |
| Providence RI | 16 | 2.88 | 2.63 | 8.5 |
| Hartford CT | 17 | 3.06 | 2.00 | 9.0 |
| Boston MA | 17 | 3.29 | 3.06 | 9.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 17 | 3.35 | -1.24 | 9.0 |
| Austin TX | 16 | 3.81 | 3.81 | 8.5 |
| Carson City NV | 17 | 4.06 | 2.88 | 9.0 |
| Denver CO | 17 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 9.0 |
| Boise ID | 17 | 4.76 | 3.24 | 9.0 |
| Olympia WA | 16 | 4.94 | 0.81 | 8.5 |
| Albany NY | 17 | 5.53 | 4.47 | 9.0 |
| Concord NH | 17 | 5.76 | 4.00 | 9.0 |
| Augusta ME | 17 | 6.00 | 5.88 | 9.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 16 | 6.88 | 6.25 | 8.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 17 | 7.53 | 7.53 | 9.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 104.0°F | +3.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 100.0°F | 103.0°F | -3.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 91.0°F | 78.0°F | +13.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 98.0°F | 94.0°F | +4.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 97.0°F | 92.0°F | +5.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 90.0°F | 82.0°F | +8.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 95.0°F | 85.0°F | +10.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 91.0°F | 84.0°F | +7.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 16.0 |