Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 180 | 1.61 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.63 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.78 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.82 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 1.82 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 1.89 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 1.91 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 1.91 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 1.94 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.94 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.94 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 1.97 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 1.97 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.98 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.07 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.17 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.21 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.22 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.23 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.31 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.33 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.39 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.39 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.45 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.54 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.61 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.63 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.67 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.74 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.77 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.78 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.83 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.83 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.84 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.89 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.91 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 3.01 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.02 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.12 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 3.13 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.14 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 3.19 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.30 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.34 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.41 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.46 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.54 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 3.64 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.68 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.86 | -2.94 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 38.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 63.0°F | -13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |