Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
1983
95232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
1934 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-15 21:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 39 0.90 0.64 20.0
Raleigh NC 39 0.97 0.00 20.0
Tallahassee FL 39 1.13 0.00 20.0
Juneau AK 39 1.21 0.74 20.0
Columbus OH 38 1.24 0.71 19.5
Annapolis MD 39 1.33 -0.36 20.0
Richmond VA 38 1.34 0.76 19.5
Jefferson City MO 39 1.38 0.62 20.0
Jackson MS 39 1.51 -0.13 20.0
Cheyenne WY 38 1.53 0.21 19.5
Honolulu HI 39 1.62 0.95 20.0
Nashville TN 38 1.68 -0.21 19.5
Indianapolis IN 39 1.77 0.64 20.0
Harrisburg PA 38 1.87 0.76 19.5
Frankfort KY 39 1.92 0.74 20.0
Lansing MI 39 1.92 1.36 20.0
Trenton NJ 39 1.97 1.36 20.0
Salt Lake City UT 38 2.00 0.89 19.5
Des Moines IA 39 2.03 0.85 20.0
Salem OR 38 2.03 1.39 19.5
Madison WI 38 2.03 1.50 19.5
Montgomery AL 39 2.08 0.03 20.0
Little Rock AR 39 2.13 0.44 20.0
Bismarck ND 39 2.13 2.13 20.0
Sacramento CA 39 2.18 -1.87 20.0
Springfield IL 39 2.18 1.67 20.0
Topeka KS 39 2.18 2.13 20.0
Atlanta GA 39 2.38 -1.97 20.0
Oklahoma City OK 38 2.39 -0.13 19.5
Pierre SD 38 2.53 2.47 19.5
Dover DE 39 2.59 0.64 20.0
Saint Paul MN 39 2.64 2.38 20.0
Olympia WA 38 3.00 0.00 19.5
Lincoln NE 39 3.03 3.03 20.0
Helena MT 39 3.15 2.69 20.0
Columbia SC 38 3.18 -3.18 19.5
Charleston WV 38 3.26 3.26 19.5
Boise ID 39 3.28 2.46 20.0
Santa Fe NM 39 3.33 -2.41 20.0
Denver CO 39 3.51 3.51 20.0
Hartford CT 39 3.59 2.31 20.0
Austin TX 38 4.13 4.08 19.5
Phoenix AZ 39 4.18 2.90 20.0
Augusta ME 39 4.21 2.51 20.0
Providence RI 38 4.39 4.29 19.5
Boston MA 39 4.44 4.18 20.0
Carson City NV 39 4.97 4.41 20.0
Concord NH 39 5.15 4.08 20.0
Montpelier VT 38 5.55 3.34 19.5
Albany NY 39 5.77 3.82 20.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Montgomery AL 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 13:00 AKDT Juneau AK 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 14:00 MST Phoenix AZ 106.0°F 105.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 14:00 PDT Sacramento CA 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 15:00 MDT Denver CO 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Hartford CT 94.0°F 82.0°F +12.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Dover DE 99.0°F 97.0°F +2.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Atlanta GA 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 11:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 15:00 MDT Boise ID 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Springfield IL 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 96.0°F 91.0°F +5.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Des Moines IA 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Topeka KS 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Frankfort KY 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Augusta ME 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Annapolis MD 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Boston MA 92.0°F 83.0°F +9.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Lansing MI 98.0°F 95.0°F +3.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 97.0°F 92.0°F +5.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Jackson MS 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 15:00 MDT Helena MT 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Lincoln NE 93.0°F 87.0°F +6.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 14:00 PDT Carson City NV 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Concord NH 90.0°F 80.0°F +10.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Trenton NJ 100.0°F 96.0°F +4.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 15:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 77.0°F 84.0°F -7.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Albany NY 92.0°F 76.0°F +16.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Raleigh NC 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Bismarck ND 99.0°F 95.0°F +4.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Columbus OH 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 14:00 PDT Salem OR 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 99.0°F 97.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Providence RI 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT Columbia SC 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 38.0