Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.46 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 1.50 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 1.73 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 1.75 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.88 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 1.88 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.99 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.99 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.08 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.15 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.17 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.18 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.19 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.24 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.28 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.28 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.39 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.41 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.47 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.49 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.50 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.51 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.54 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.62 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.63 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.66 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.67 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.68 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.69 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.75 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.76 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.76 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.93 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 3.01 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 3.02 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.08 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 3.12 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 3.17 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 3.20 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.25 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.27 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.28 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.31 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.44 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 3.54 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.63 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 3.77 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.91 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 4.14 | 3.39 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 4.55 | 3.51 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 96.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 111.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 94.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 73.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 99.0°F | 96.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 100.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 85.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 76.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |