Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
19283
925632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.55°
8800 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-30 07:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 176 1.22 -0.65 48.0
Providence RI 176 1.60 -0.35 48.0
Jackson MS 176 1.69 0.89 48.0
Richmond VA 176 1.73 -0.19 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 176 1.78 1.36 48.0
Little Rock AR 176 1.81 0.07 48.0
Trenton NJ 176 1.91 0.05 48.0
Augusta ME 176 1.95 -1.07 48.0
Carson City NV 176 1.95 0.64 48.0
Boston MA 176 1.96 1.23 48.0
Hartford CT 176 2.07 -0.41 48.0
Charleston WV 176 2.10 0.57 48.0
Lansing MI 176 2.20 1.16 48.0
Concord NH 176 2.21 0.28 48.0
Atlanta GA 176 2.24 0.55 48.0
Columbus OH 176 2.26 1.81 48.0
Jefferson City MO 176 2.27 0.21 48.0
Helena MT 176 2.28 0.51 48.0
Annapolis MD 176 2.29 0.89 48.0
Harrisburg PA 176 2.29 -0.32 48.0
Raleigh NC 176 2.32 1.62 48.0
Lincoln NE 176 2.39 -0.05 48.0
Austin TX 176 2.40 2.27 48.0
Dover DE 176 2.48 0.15 48.0
Sacramento CA 176 2.50 2.15 48.0
Des Moines IA 176 2.51 -0.40 48.0
Tallahassee FL 176 2.53 0.19 48.0
Albany NY 176 2.53 0.64 48.0
Montgomery AL 176 2.56 0.72 48.0
Juneau AK 176 2.57 0.75 48.0
Springfield IL 176 2.59 2.10 48.0
Nashville TN 176 2.61 0.02 48.0
Olympia WA 176 2.65 -0.77 48.0
Salem OR 176 2.67 2.19 48.0
Saint Paul MN 176 2.73 1.48 48.0
Indianapolis IN 176 2.77 1.67 48.0
Phoenix AZ 176 2.91 -0.77 48.0
Santa Fe NM 176 2.91 -0.62 48.0
Topeka KS 176 2.99 0.64 48.0
Montpelier VT 176 3.06 2.13 48.0
Boise ID 176 3.11 2.51 48.0
Madison WI 176 3.16 1.34 48.0
Columbia SC 176 3.19 -1.24 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 176 3.19 -0.08 48.0
Cheyenne WY 176 3.53 0.94 48.0
Pierre SD 176 3.56 2.16 48.0
Denver CO 176 3.74 2.24 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 176 3.78 3.32 48.0
Frankfort KY 176 3.90 3.58 48.0
Bismarck ND 176 4.07 3.06 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 51.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 MST Phoenix AZ 99.0°F 102.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Little Rock AR 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 PDT Sacramento CA 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Hartford CT 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Dover DE 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Atlanta GA 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 21:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 MDT Boise ID 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Springfield IL 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Des Moines IA 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Topeka KS 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Frankfort KY 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Augusta ME 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Lansing MI 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 MDT Helena MT 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Lincoln NE 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 PDT Carson City NV 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Concord NH 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Trenton NJ 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Albany NY 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Bismarck ND 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Columbus OH 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 79.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 00:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 67.0°F 73.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Providence RI 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0