Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.37 | 0.19 | 45.4 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.69 | -0.84 | 45.4 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.80 | -0.22 | 45.4 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 1.88 | 1.06 | 45.4 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.90 | 0.67 | 45.3 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.91 | -1.19 | 45.4 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 1.97 | 0.34 | 45.4 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.07 | 0.15 | 45.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.13 | -0.85 | 45.4 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.15 | 1.77 | 45.4 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.19 | 0.79 | 45.4 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.22 | 1.23 | 45.3 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.25 | 1.25 | 45.3 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.31 | 1.29 | 45.4 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.33 | 0.04 | 45.4 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.37 | 1.08 | 45.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.40 | 0.00 | 45.4 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.40 | 0.42 | 45.3 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.44 | 0.41 | 45.3 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.51 | 1.76 | 45.4 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.59 | 0.84 | 45.3 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.60 | 1.24 | 45.4 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.64 | 1.37 | 45.4 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.65 | 1.76 | 45.3 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.66 | 2.01 | 45.4 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.68 | 1.07 | 45.3 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.73 | 0.73 | 45.4 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.74 | 2.47 | 45.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.74 | 2.27 | 45.4 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.87 | 1.91 | 45.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.89 | 1.68 | 45.3 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.90 | 2.68 | 45.4 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.93 | 1.96 | 45.4 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.95 | 1.07 | 45.4 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.95 | 1.89 | 45.3 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.97 | -1.48 | 45.3 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 3.02 | -2.63 | 45.3 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.07 | 1.09 | 45.4 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.11 | 0.90 | 45.4 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.17 | -0.07 | 45.3 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.30 | -1.36 | 45.4 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.34 | 2.91 | 45.3 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 3.35 | 2.27 | 45.4 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 3.41 | 2.08 | 45.4 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.54 | 2.75 | 45.4 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.54 | 2.38 | 45.4 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.66 | 1.00 | 45.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.88 | 3.78 | 45.4 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.90 | 3.82 | 45.3 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.92 | 0.88 | 45.3 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |