Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.43 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 1.52 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.62 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 1.81 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 1.92 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 1.96 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 1.96 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.03 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.07 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.10 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.13 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.16 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.18 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.22 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.25 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.30 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.32 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.34 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.35 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.35 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.38 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.38 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.38 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.42 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.43 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.43 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.44 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.45 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.45 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.52 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.56 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.59 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.65 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.65 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.65 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.68 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.70 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.76 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.78 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.87 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.88 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.91 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.92 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.92 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.96 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.01 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.04 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 3.18 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.24 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.46 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 114.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 100.0°F | 104.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 63.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |