Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.43 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.57 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 1.80 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 1.82 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.84 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.92 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.95 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.02 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.08 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.11 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.12 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.19 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.21 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.28 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.28 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.29 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.36 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.39 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.40 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.43 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.51 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.52 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.52 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.53 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.60 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.63 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.65 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.66 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.67 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.78 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.81 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.83 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.93 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.98 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.99 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 3.04 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 3.06 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 3.11 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 3.15 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.17 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.18 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.20 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.34 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 3.40 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 3.43 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.75 | 3.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.84 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 4.04 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 4.07 | 3.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 4.65 | 3.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 100.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |