Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 136 | 1.15 | 0.05 | 39.7 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 137 | 1.31 | 0.34 | 39.8 |
| Raleigh NC | 136 | 1.61 | 0.30 | 39.7 |
| Little Rock AR | 137 | 1.64 | -0.55 | 39.8 |
| Honolulu HI | 137 | 1.69 | -0.62 | 39.8 |
| Cheyenne WY | 135 | 1.71 | 0.33 | 39.6 |
| Sacramento CA | 137 | 1.72 | -0.04 | 39.8 |
| Jefferson City MO | 136 | 1.82 | 0.57 | 39.7 |
| Indianapolis IN | 137 | 1.85 | 0.04 | 39.8 |
| Madison WI | 135 | 1.89 | 0.70 | 39.6 |
| Juneau AK | 137 | 1.93 | -0.07 | 39.8 |
| Frankfort KY | 137 | 1.99 | 1.09 | 39.8 |
| Des Moines IA | 137 | 2.04 | 1.28 | 39.8 |
| Tallahassee FL | 137 | 2.09 | 0.51 | 39.8 |
| Columbus OH | 135 | 2.10 | 1.52 | 39.6 |
| Saint Paul MN | 136 | 2.19 | 1.90 | 39.7 |
| Montgomery AL | 137 | 2.23 | -0.12 | 39.8 |
| Annapolis MD | 137 | 2.27 | 1.03 | 39.8 |
| Nashville TN | 135 | 2.27 | -0.12 | 39.6 |
| Atlanta GA | 137 | 2.36 | 0.00 | 39.8 |
| Springfield IL | 137 | 2.36 | 2.00 | 39.8 |
| Salem OR | 135 | 2.43 | 1.93 | 39.6 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 135 | 2.43 | -0.43 | 39.6 |
| Austin TX | 135 | 2.47 | 1.30 | 39.6 |
| Richmond VA | 135 | 2.50 | 1.79 | 39.6 |
| Bismarck ND | 136 | 2.63 | 2.13 | 39.7 |
| Charleston WV | 135 | 2.71 | 1.76 | 39.6 |
| Trenton NJ | 136 | 2.76 | 2.33 | 39.7 |
| Carson City NV | 136 | 2.79 | 0.86 | 39.7 |
| Lansing MI | 136 | 2.82 | 2.33 | 39.7 |
| Topeka KS | 137 | 2.88 | 2.79 | 39.8 |
| Denver CO | 137 | 2.91 | 2.34 | 39.8 |
| Hartford CT | 137 | 2.99 | 2.09 | 39.8 |
| Columbia SC | 135 | 3.00 | -2.61 | 39.6 |
| Boise ID | 137 | 3.04 | 1.78 | 39.8 |
| Santa Fe NM | 136 | 3.05 | -0.83 | 39.7 |
| Olympia WA | 135 | 3.10 | 1.21 | 39.6 |
| Harrisburg PA | 135 | 3.15 | 2.57 | 39.6 |
| Providence RI | 135 | 3.25 | 2.79 | 39.6 |
| Dover DE | 137 | 3.31 | 1.06 | 39.8 |
| Boston MA | 137 | 3.50 | 2.72 | 39.8 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 135 | 3.53 | 2.79 | 39.6 |
| Augusta ME | 136 | 3.56 | 1.82 | 39.7 |
| Lincoln NE | 136 | 3.64 | 3.58 | 39.7 |
| Pierre SD | 135 | 3.65 | 3.62 | 39.6 |
| Helena MT | 136 | 3.74 | 3.01 | 39.7 |
| Phoenix AZ | 137 | 3.80 | 2.07 | 39.8 |
| Albany NY | 136 | 4.16 | 3.53 | 39.7 |
| Concord NH | 136 | 4.26 | 3.32 | 39.7 |
| Montpelier VT | 135 | 4.39 | 2.39 | 39.6 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 82.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 104.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 98.0°F | 89.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 83.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 102.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 98.0°F | 88.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-19 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |