Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 184 | 1.45 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.48 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.48 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.54 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 1.57 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 1.59 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.79 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 1.83 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 1.85 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.99 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.06 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.09 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.18 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.23 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.29 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.29 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.34 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.43 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.48 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.51 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.52 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.56 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.57 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.57 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.57 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.61 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.61 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.72 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.81 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.83 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.84 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.85 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.88 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.96 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.96 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.97 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 3.02 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 3.03 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.03 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.03 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.03 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 3.08 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.24 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.25 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 3.32 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 3.47 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.64 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.73 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.78 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 4.40 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 77.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 90.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 59.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 82.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |