Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.14 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.49 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 1.69 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 1.69 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.75 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 1.83 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.91 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 1.99 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.06 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.07 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.08 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.10 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.11 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.12 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.16 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.20 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.23 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.25 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.32 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.36 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.37 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.39 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.42 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.44 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.45 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.47 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.48 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.56 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.56 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.61 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.77 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.81 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.82 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.86 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 3.03 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.03 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.05 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.09 | -2.72 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.09 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.16 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 3.18 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.19 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.24 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.28 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.29 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.47 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.54 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 3.65 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.78 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.82 | -3.05 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 45.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |