Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.86 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.88 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 1.88 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.88 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.92 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 1.94 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 1.99 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.11 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.15 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.17 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.24 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.24 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.24 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.25 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.27 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.28 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.29 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.32 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.34 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.35 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.41 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.41 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.41 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.44 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.44 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.48 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.49 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.52 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.54 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.56 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.59 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.62 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.63 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.67 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.68 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.73 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.74 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.75 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.83 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.92 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.97 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.15 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 3.20 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.28 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.35 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.39 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.41 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.42 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.65 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 4.18 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 94.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 84.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 68.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |