Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.34 | 0.18 | 41.8 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 1.51 | 0.66 | 41.8 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.68 | -0.83 | 41.8 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.79 | -0.90 | 41.8 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.83 | 0.42 | 41.8 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.87 | -0.14 | 41.8 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.03 | 0.98 | 41.8 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.07 | 0.95 | 41.8 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.08 | 0.83 | 41.8 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.09 | 1.17 | 41.8 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.10 | -0.82 | 41.8 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.14 | 1.10 | 41.8 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.15 | 0.03 | 41.8 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.15 | 0.81 | 41.8 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.16 | 1.81 | 41.8 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.19 | 0.18 | 41.8 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.24 | 0.08 | 41.8 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.24 | 0.59 | 41.8 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.31 | 0.87 | 41.8 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.31 | 1.43 | 41.8 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.31 | 1.52 | 41.8 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.32 | 0.19 | 41.8 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.51 | 2.23 | 41.8 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.52 | 1.82 | 41.8 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.56 | 1.22 | 41.8 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.57 | 2.29 | 41.8 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.57 | 2.10 | 41.8 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.58 | 1.82 | 41.8 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.75 | 1.68 | 41.8 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.79 | -1.30 | 41.8 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.82 | 1.82 | 41.8 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.91 | 0.96 | 41.8 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.93 | 0.62 | 41.8 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.97 | 1.87 | 41.8 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.99 | 1.76 | 41.8 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 3.01 | 2.16 | 41.8 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.02 | 0.56 | 41.8 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.03 | 1.77 | 41.8 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 3.04 | -2.72 | 41.8 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 3.13 | 1.35 | 41.8 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.38 | -1.54 | 41.8 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 3.39 | 2.13 | 41.8 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.43 | 2.79 | 41.8 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.58 | 2.93 | 41.8 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.58 | 3.48 | 41.8 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 3.66 | 2.71 | 41.8 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.71 | 3.64 | 41.8 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.82 | 2.74 | 41.8 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 4.12 | 1.50 | 41.8 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 4.22 | 1.60 | 41.8 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 88.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 101.0°F | 100.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 82.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 77.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 94.0°F | 81.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 84.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 97.0°F | 87.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 96.0°F | 90.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 83.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 90.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 102.0°F | 103.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |