Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.32 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.76 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 1.95 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.04 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.08 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.16 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.24 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.29 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.38 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.38 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.39 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.40 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.45 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.48 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.53 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.55 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.58 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.60 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.63 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.67 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.76 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.80 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.80 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.83 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.88 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.92 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.97 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 3.01 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.08 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 3.14 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.17 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.18 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 3.20 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.24 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.28 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.33 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.33 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 3.40 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 3.58 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.61 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 3.61 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.67 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.69 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.95 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 4.02 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 4.04 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 4.23 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 4.43 | 4.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 4.81 | 4.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 6.15 | 3.52 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 69.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 40.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 36.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |