Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.68 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 1.68 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 1.69 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.77 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.81 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 1.81 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.84 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 1.89 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.91 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.91 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 1.91 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 1.98 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 1.99 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.01 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.12 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.24 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.29 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.32 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.36 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.43 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.48 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.49 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.51 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.51 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.54 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.59 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.60 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.73 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.81 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.81 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.84 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.88 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.88 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.90 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.95 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.95 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.98 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 3.02 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 3.03 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.03 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 3.08 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.15 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 3.22 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.42 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.43 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.47 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.48 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.59 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 4.96 | 4.18 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 54.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-26 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |