Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.24 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 1.78 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.84 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 1.93 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.04 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.06 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.28 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.31 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.40 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.43 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.46 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.51 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.53 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.61 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.63 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.66 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.69 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.70 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.71 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.74 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.83 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.83 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.88 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.91 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.91 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.96 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.97 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.01 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 3.02 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.03 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.08 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 3.09 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 3.09 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 3.13 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.16 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.21 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 3.28 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.34 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.49 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 3.53 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 3.56 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 3.61 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.93 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 4.02 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 4.05 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 4.08 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 4.47 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 5.01 | 4.79 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 5.16 | 4.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 5.92 | 3.96 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 36.0°F | 35.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 37.0°F | 41.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 30.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 46.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 37.0°F | 37.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 34.0°F | 41.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 57.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |