Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.35 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.48 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.63 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.68 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.76 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.80 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.84 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.87 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 1.90 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 1.97 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.06 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.11 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.12 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.22 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.23 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.27 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.28 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.31 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.35 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.40 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.41 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.44 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.46 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.51 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.52 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.56 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.57 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.59 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.60 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.62 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.64 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.65 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.78 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.78 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.85 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.86 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.87 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.95 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.04 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.09 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.25 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.39 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 3.40 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.45 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.67 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.80 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.95 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 4.09 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 4.30 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 5.01 | 3.82 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 37.0°F | 42.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 46.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 59.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 50.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-31 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |