Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.19 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 1.62 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 1.65 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.74 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 1.80 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.83 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.91 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 1.94 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 1.95 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 1.96 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.06 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.13 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.22 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.23 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.23 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.23 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.25 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.28 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.28 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.30 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.37 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.42 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.44 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.47 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.47 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.51 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.52 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.55 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.57 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.58 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.59 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.66 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.68 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.74 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.80 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.91 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.93 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.98 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 3.00 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.09 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 3.12 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 3.13 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 3.13 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.51 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.55 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.67 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.78 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 3.95 | 3.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 4.15 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 86.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 107.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 67.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |