Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
16983
815232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.69°
8900 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-28 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 178 1.43 -0.91 48.0
Providence RI 178 1.57 0.06 48.0
Augusta ME 178 1.80 -0.55 48.0
Hartford CT 178 1.82 0.17 48.0
Little Rock AR 178 1.84 -0.11 48.0
Trenton NJ 178 1.92 -0.07 48.0
Jackson MS 178 1.95 1.03 48.0
Tallahassee FL 178 2.02 -0.25 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 178 2.08 1.59 48.0
Austin TX 178 2.11 1.60 48.0
Atlanta GA 178 2.12 0.34 48.0
Concord NH 178 2.19 0.43 48.0
Boston MA 178 2.21 1.43 48.0
Albany NY 178 2.28 -0.05 48.0
Charleston WV 178 2.28 -0.10 48.0
Harrisburg PA 178 2.29 -0.77 48.0
Helena MT 178 2.36 0.76 48.0
Richmond VA 178 2.39 0.37 48.0
Jefferson City MO 178 2.40 0.38 48.0
Lansing MI 178 2.43 0.93 48.0
Annapolis MD 178 2.51 0.76 48.0
Dover DE 178 2.52 0.37 48.0
Columbus OH 178 2.52 1.56 48.0
Raleigh NC 178 2.53 0.96 48.0
Montgomery AL 178 2.60 1.02 48.0
Juneau AK 178 2.63 0.54 48.0
Nashville TN 178 2.65 0.53 48.0
Carson City NV 178 2.66 1.40 48.0
Springfield IL 178 2.67 2.19 48.0
Indianapolis IN 178 2.78 1.38 48.0
Columbia SC 178 2.81 -1.03 48.0
Santa Fe NM 178 2.83 -0.75 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 178 2.93 -1.45 48.0
Saint Paul MN 178 2.98 1.75 48.0
Topeka KS 178 2.99 0.88 48.0
Madison WI 178 3.04 1.17 48.0
Sacramento CA 178 3.06 1.34 48.0
Salem OR 178 3.11 1.44 48.0
Des Moines IA 178 3.15 0.84 48.0
Cheyenne WY 178 3.17 -0.10 48.0
Olympia WA 178 3.18 -1.56 48.0
Montpelier VT 178 3.20 1.74 48.0
Phoenix AZ 178 3.34 -0.21 48.0
Lincoln NE 178 3.40 1.64 48.0
Boise ID 178 3.43 2.92 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 178 3.75 3.23 48.0
Denver CO 178 3.84 1.20 48.0
Frankfort KY 178 4.04 3.43 48.0
Bismarck ND 178 4.07 3.37 48.0
Pierre SD 178 4.65 3.66 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 48.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 100.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 03:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Dover DE 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 74.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 03:00 MDT Boise ID 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Boston MA 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 03:00 MDT Helena MT 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 79.0°F 72.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Albany NY 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 73.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 02:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Providence RI 64.0°F 70.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0