Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.45 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.84 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 1.85 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 1.98 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.01 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.03 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.04 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.05 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.07 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.12 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.26 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.29 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.30 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.34 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.34 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.35 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.39 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.41 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.41 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.45 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.50 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.52 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.52 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.55 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.56 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.57 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.59 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.62 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.67 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.68 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.74 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.80 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.84 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.85 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.90 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.90 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.93 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.95 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 3.01 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.03 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 3.05 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 3.10 | -2.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.12 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 3.13 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.21 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.25 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.40 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 3.42 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.61 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 4.07 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 10:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 12:00 MST | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 12:00 MST | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 46.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Topeka KS | 53.0°F | 46.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 53.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 12:00 MST | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 50.0°F | 40.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 PST | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 46.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 12:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 61.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 13:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 56.0°F | 49.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 11:00 PST | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-06 14:00 EST | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |