Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.45 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.73 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.74 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.82 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.05 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.08 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.10 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.12 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.13 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.15 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.24 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.25 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.30 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.31 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.33 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.35 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.39 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.41 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.43 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.46 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.50 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.53 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.53 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.58 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.59 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.60 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.60 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.79 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.87 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.99 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.99 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.02 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 3.03 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.06 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.08 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 3.14 | -2.83 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 3.16 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 3.17 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.20 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.35 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.40 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.45 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.51 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.59 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.65 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.76 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.84 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.86 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 4.12 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 36.0°F | 30.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 47.0°F | 56.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 38.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 33.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 53.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 34.0°F | 31.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 37.0°F | 35.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 31.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |