Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
73283
3517632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8800 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-13 07:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 176 1.63 -0.66 48.0
Indianapolis IN 176 1.65 -0.20 48.0
Trenton NJ 176 1.80 -1.39 48.0
Little Rock AR 176 1.81 0.27 48.0
Albany NY 176 1.85 -0.64 48.0
Jackson MS 176 1.87 0.46 48.0
Charleston WV 176 1.89 1.26 48.0
Lansing MI 176 1.93 0.52 48.0
Jefferson City MO 176 1.93 0.30 48.0
Columbus OH 176 1.95 0.14 48.0
Annapolis MD 176 1.96 -1.19 48.0
Honolulu HI 176 1.97 -1.19 48.0
Sacramento CA 176 1.98 -0.19 48.0
Austin TX 176 1.99 0.60 48.0
Saint Paul MN 176 2.11 -0.49 48.0
Hartford CT 176 2.20 -0.90 48.0
Harrisburg PA 176 2.20 -1.22 48.0
Raleigh NC 176 2.22 -1.19 48.0
Nashville TN 176 2.22 -0.39 48.0
Augusta ME 176 2.35 0.05 48.0
Salem OR 176 2.36 -0.47 48.0
Phoenix AZ 176 2.41 -1.59 48.0
Columbia SC 176 2.41 0.11 48.0
Providence RI 176 2.45 -1.91 48.0
Madison WI 176 2.56 0.48 48.0
Atlanta GA 176 2.64 1.34 48.0
Bismarck ND 176 2.67 0.75 48.0
Cheyenne WY 176 2.67 0.90 48.0
Boise ID 176 2.75 -0.99 48.0
Frankfort KY 176 2.78 0.56 48.0
Dover DE 176 2.80 -1.95 48.0
Des Moines IA 176 2.81 1.84 48.0
Boston MA 176 2.84 -1.06 48.0
Concord NH 176 2.87 0.37 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 176 2.88 -1.31 48.0
Montgomery AL 176 2.93 0.69 48.0
Topeka KS 176 2.99 2.25 48.0
Helena MT 176 3.07 -1.01 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 176 3.16 1.27 48.0
Lincoln NE 176 3.16 2.02 48.0
Carson City NV 176 3.16 -0.88 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 176 3.16 0.92 48.0
Tallahassee FL 176 3.25 0.03 48.0
Olympia WA 176 3.33 0.57 48.0
Montpelier VT 176 3.41 1.78 48.0
Denver CO 176 3.49 1.57 48.0
Pierre SD 176 3.53 2.56 48.0
Juneau AK 176 3.55 0.77 48.0
Springfield IL 176 3.72 2.70 48.0
Santa Fe NM 176 3.91 -3.04 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 23:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 43.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 00:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 00:00 PDT Sacramento CA 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 01:00 MDT Denver CO 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Hartford CT 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 21:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 01:00 MDT Boise ID 63.0°F 74.0°F -11.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Springfield IL 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Des Moines IA 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Topeka KS 70.0°F 64.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Frankfort KY 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Augusta ME 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Annapolis MD 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Boston MA 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Lansing MI 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 01:00 MDT Helena MT 48.0°F 52.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Lincoln NE 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 00:00 PDT Carson City NV 60.0°F 66.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Concord NH 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 01:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Albany NY 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Bismarck ND 50.0°F 54.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Columbus OH 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 00:00 PDT Salem OR 56.0°F 53.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0