Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.59 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.69 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.72 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 1.83 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.89 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 1.89 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 1.94 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 1.97 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.08 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.09 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.10 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.19 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.21 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.25 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.27 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.32 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.32 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.33 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.33 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.33 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.38 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.41 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.43 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.49 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.51 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.56 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.58 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.60 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.63 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.69 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.69 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.75 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.76 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.77 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.78 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.78 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.80 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.82 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.85 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.89 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 3.01 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.05 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.09 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.33 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 3.34 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 3.34 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.41 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.47 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.71 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 4.23 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 15:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 MST | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 MST | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 MST | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 PST | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 17:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 39.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 18:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 16:00 PST | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-03 19:00 EST | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |