Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.58 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.73 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.79 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 1.82 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.88 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 1.93 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 1.96 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 1.98 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.06 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.06 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.14 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.20 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.24 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.26 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.28 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.28 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.30 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.32 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.33 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.34 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.37 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.39 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.45 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.49 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.51 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.51 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.53 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.63 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.65 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.68 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.71 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.71 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.73 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.76 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.76 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.79 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.80 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.82 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.85 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.86 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.07 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 3.14 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 3.16 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.18 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.21 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.29 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 3.33 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.34 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.61 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 4.06 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 MST | Denver CO | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 68.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 MST | Boise ID | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Topeka KS | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 MST | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 27.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 PST | Carson City NV | 31.0°F | 30.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 36.0°F | 32.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 09:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 PST | Salem OR | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 10:00 EST | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |