Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.64 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.73 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 1.82 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 1.83 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 1.89 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.91 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 1.94 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 1.96 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.98 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.03 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.05 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.08 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.10 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.18 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.19 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.26 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.27 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.32 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.38 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.39 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.39 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.42 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.45 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.45 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.51 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.61 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.64 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.70 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.74 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.77 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.78 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.78 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.81 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.82 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.85 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.90 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.92 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.96 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.98 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.02 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 3.15 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.25 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.28 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.32 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.42 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.45 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.56 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.60 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.61 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.75 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 90.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 102.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 65.0°F | +21.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 89.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 92.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 68.0°F | -13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |