Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 5 | 0.20 | -0.20 | 3.0 |
| Columbus OH | 4 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 2.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 5 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 3.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 5 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 3.0 |
| Providence RI | 4 | 0.50 | -0.50 | 2.5 |
| Nashville TN | 4 | 0.50 | -0.50 | 2.5 |
| Charleston WV | 4 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 5 | 0.60 | -0.20 | 3.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 5 | 0.60 | -0.60 | 3.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 5 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 3.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 5 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 3.0 |
| Augusta ME | 5 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 3.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 5 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 3.0 |
| Boston MA | 5 | 0.60 | -0.20 | 3.0 |
| Jackson MS | 5 | 0.60 | -0.20 | 3.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 4 | 0.75 | -0.25 | 2.5 |
| Richmond VA | 4 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 2.5 |
| Boise ID | 5 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 3.0 |
| Topeka KS | 5 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 3.0 |
| Lansing MI | 5 | 1.00 | -0.20 | 3.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 5 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 3.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 5 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 3.0 |
| Salem OR | 4 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 4 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 2.5 |
| Pierre SD | 4 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 2.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 4 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 2.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 5 | 1.20 | -0.80 | 3.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 5 | 1.20 | -1.20 | 3.0 |
| Austin TX | 4 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 2.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 4 | 1.25 | -1.25 | 2.5 |
| Hartford CT | 5 | 1.40 | -1.40 | 3.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 5 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 3.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 5 | 1.60 | -1.60 | 3.0 |
| Springfield IL | 5 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 3.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 4 | 1.75 | 0.25 | 2.5 |
| Juneau AK | 5 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 3.0 |
| Helena MT | 5 | 1.80 | -1.80 | 3.0 |
| Dover DE | 5 | 2.00 | -1.60 | 3.0 |
| Concord NH | 5 | 2.00 | -2.00 | 3.0 |
| Albany NY | 5 | 2.00 | -1.60 | 3.0 |
| Columbia SC | 4 | 2.25 | -2.25 | 2.5 |
| Madison WI | 4 | 2.25 | -2.25 | 2.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 5 | 2.40 | -2.40 | 3.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 5 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 3.0 |
| Denver CO | 5 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 3.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 5 | 2.80 | -2.80 | 3.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 5 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 3.0 |
| Carson City NV | 5 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 3.0 |
| Olympia WA | 4 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 2.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 5 | 10.20 | 10.20 | 3.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (UTC) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 82.0°F | +8.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 5.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 4.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 4.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 4.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 4.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 4.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 4.0 |