Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.28 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.53 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.76 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.79 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.03 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.10 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.22 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.26 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.28 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.31 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.32 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.32 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.34 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.35 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.39 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.40 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.45 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.47 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.53 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.54 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.54 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.55 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.56 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.59 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.65 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.72 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.73 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.74 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.77 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.80 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.85 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.86 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.90 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.92 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.95 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.97 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.97 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.98 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.08 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.12 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.41 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.43 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.58 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.60 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 3.78 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.98 | 3.67 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 4.02 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 4.63 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 4.91 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 5.48 | 3.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |