Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.43 | -0.02 | 47.8 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.61 | 0.71 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.66 | -0.77 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.73 | -0.38 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 1.87 | 0.70 | 47.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.87 | -1.54 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.15 | 1.36 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.18 | -0.03 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.29 | 1.35 | 47.8 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.30 | 1.04 | 47.8 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.31 | 0.87 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.38 | 0.66 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.38 | 2.05 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.38 | 0.22 | 47.8 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.41 | 1.33 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.42 | 0.06 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.46 | 1.41 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.47 | 0.15 | 47.8 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 47.8 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.50 | 0.49 | 47.8 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.52 | 0.45 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.59 | 0.61 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.61 | 1.23 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.69 | 0.35 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.70 | 2.09 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.71 | 1.09 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.81 | 0.31 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.83 | 1.90 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.86 | 1.84 | 47.8 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.89 | -2.50 | 47.8 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.91 | 1.50 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.93 | 2.77 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.94 | 1.44 | 47.8 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.96 | 2.69 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.96 | 2.06 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.97 | -1.40 | 47.8 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.13 | 2.65 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 3.16 | 0.70 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.18 | 1.81 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 3.26 | 2.25 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 3.27 | 1.41 | 47.8 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.31 | 2.28 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.34 | 1.38 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.40 | -0.73 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.41 | 3.22 | 47.8 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.55 | 0.85 | 47.8 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.67 | -0.15 | 47.8 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.69 | 1.09 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 4.33 | 4.19 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 4.55 | 4.44 | 47.8 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-23 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |