Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 29 | 0.86 | 0.10 | 15.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 30 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 15.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 30 | 0.97 | 0.77 | 15.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 30 | 1.10 | 0.30 | 15.5 |
| Columbus OH | 29 | 1.14 | 0.45 | 15.0 |
| Juneau AK | 30 | 1.17 | 0.70 | 15.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 30 | 1.23 | -0.83 | 15.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 30 | 1.40 | 0.73 | 15.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 30 | 1.43 | 0.43 | 15.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 29 | 1.45 | -1.03 | 15.0 |
| Nashville TN | 29 | 1.45 | -0.83 | 15.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 30 | 1.50 | 0.10 | 15.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 30 | 1.50 | 0.17 | 15.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 30 | 1.53 | 0.73 | 15.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 28 | 1.54 | 0.75 | 14.5 |
| Jackson MS | 30 | 1.70 | -0.10 | 15.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 29 | 1.79 | 0.55 | 15.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 30 | 1.87 | -0.33 | 15.5 |
| Lansing MI | 30 | 1.87 | 1.27 | 15.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 29 | 1.90 | 0.93 | 15.0 |
| Topeka KS | 30 | 1.93 | 1.87 | 15.5 |
| Salem OR | 29 | 1.93 | 1.10 | 15.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 30 | 2.03 | -1.63 | 15.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 30 | 2.03 | 0.50 | 15.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 30 | 2.03 | 2.03 | 15.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 30 | 2.23 | -1.70 | 15.5 |
| Madison WI | 28 | 2.32 | 1.61 | 14.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 30 | 2.37 | 0.17 | 15.5 |
| Springfield IL | 30 | 2.37 | 2.03 | 15.5 |
| Dover DE | 30 | 2.43 | -0.10 | 15.5 |
| Charleston WV | 28 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 14.5 |
| Pierre SD | 29 | 2.59 | 2.52 | 15.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 30 | 2.67 | -1.47 | 15.5 |
| Hartford CT | 30 | 2.77 | 1.10 | 15.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 30 | 2.77 | 2.70 | 15.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 30 | 2.93 | 2.93 | 15.5 |
| Austin TX | 29 | 3.10 | 3.03 | 15.0 |
| Columbia SC | 29 | 3.24 | -3.24 | 15.0 |
| Olympia WA | 29 | 3.45 | 0.28 | 15.0 |
| Boston MA | 30 | 3.47 | 3.13 | 15.5 |
| Helena MT | 30 | 3.50 | 2.90 | 15.5 |
| Providence RI | 29 | 3.52 | 3.38 | 15.0 |
| Denver CO | 30 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 15.5 |
| Boise ID | 30 | 3.93 | 3.00 | 15.5 |
| Albany NY | 30 | 4.73 | 2.20 | 15.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 30 | 4.97 | 3.63 | 15.5 |
| Augusta ME | 30 | 5.00 | 3.00 | 15.5 |
| Concord NH | 30 | 5.07 | 3.67 | 15.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 29 | 5.17 | 2.34 | 15.0 |
| Carson City NV | 30 | 5.53 | 4.87 | 15.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 54.0°F | +8.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 29.0 |