Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.43 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.65 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 1.80 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 1.84 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 1.88 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.99 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.04 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.08 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.10 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.12 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.14 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.17 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.18 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.19 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.27 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.27 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.28 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.31 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.32 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.34 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.34 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.37 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.37 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.39 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.43 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.45 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.46 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.49 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.52 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.54 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.55 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.57 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.61 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.71 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.72 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.76 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.76 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.76 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.83 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.84 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.88 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.90 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 3.01 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.03 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.11 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.16 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.23 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.25 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.30 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.40 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 95.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 58.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 72.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 69.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |