Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.43 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 1.62 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 1.78 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.81 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 1.85 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.89 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.92 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.05 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.08 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.11 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.14 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.18 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.19 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.25 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.25 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.25 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.34 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.35 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.37 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.38 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.47 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.48 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.48 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.57 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.63 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.63 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.66 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.68 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.71 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.75 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.81 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.83 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.90 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.96 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.97 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.99 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 3.03 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 3.09 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.14 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 3.15 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.15 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.19 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.32 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 3.41 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.43 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.79 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.85 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 3.99 | 3.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 4.04 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 4.69 | 3.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 78.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 75.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 76.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |