Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 190 | 1.30 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.46 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.72 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 1.88 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.91 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.91 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 1.94 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.97 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.11 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.24 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.24 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.26 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.31 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.32 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.34 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.34 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.36 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.39 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.39 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.40 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.40 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.43 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.44 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.48 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.51 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.52 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.54 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.54 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.55 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.60 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.69 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.70 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.73 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.80 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.83 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 2.95 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.97 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.98 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.03 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.04 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 3.10 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 3.15 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 3.18 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.29 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.34 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 3.55 | 3.00 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.67 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.70 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 4.34 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 4.57 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |