Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.48 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.52 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.52 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.65 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.79 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.79 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.86 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.87 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.99 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.09 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.16 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.23 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.23 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.23 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.29 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.36 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.39 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.43 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.47 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.48 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.53 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.56 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.62 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.65 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.69 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.69 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.70 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.72 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.76 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.80 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.81 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.95 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.98 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.00 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.05 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.10 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 3.15 | -2.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 3.20 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.28 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.28 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 3.37 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 3.39 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.45 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.47 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.54 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 3.56 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.88 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 4.10 | 3.00 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 4.18 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 4.21 | 3.25 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 36.0°F | 32.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 42.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |