Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.13 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.35 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 1.56 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 1.59 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.69 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 1.82 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.83 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 1.85 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 1.95 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.99 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.07 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.11 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.28 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.28 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.31 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.33 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.36 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.37 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.41 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.48 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.52 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.52 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.56 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.60 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.61 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.62 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.63 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.68 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.69 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.71 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.72 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.73 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.85 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.89 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.95 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.96 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.98 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.05 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.09 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.15 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.16 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.17 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 3.20 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.32 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.43 | -3.19 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.46 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.54 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.78 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 4.17 | -3.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 102.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 93.0°F | 82.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 93.0°F | 84.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 76.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 95.0°F | 89.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |