Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.36 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.50 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.56 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.72 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.82 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 1.97 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.02 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.04 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.07 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.14 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.18 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.18 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.23 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.27 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.30 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.31 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.31 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.31 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.34 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.35 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.41 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.42 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.42 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.45 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.45 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.58 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.58 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.71 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.72 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.76 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.79 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.82 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.87 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.96 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.97 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.98 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 3.03 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 3.05 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 3.17 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.20 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.21 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.29 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.41 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.48 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.49 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.51 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.88 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.95 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.96 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.96 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 65.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |