Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
7133
342432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.65°
7084 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-20 04:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 142 1.18 0.13 40.1
Baton Rouge LA 142 1.33 0.39 40.1
Little Rock AR 142 1.64 -0.60 40.1
Raleigh NC 142 1.64 0.29 40.1
Honolulu HI 142 1.68 -0.65 40.1
Sacramento CA 142 1.75 -0.13 40.1
Indianapolis IN 142 1.83 0.01 40.1
Juneau AK 142 1.89 -0.08 40.1
Madison WI 141 1.91 0.77 40.0
Jefferson City MO 142 1.94 0.74 40.1
Frankfort KY 142 2.00 1.08 40.1
Tallahassee FL 142 2.05 0.49 40.1
Des Moines IA 142 2.07 1.34 40.1
Columbus OH 141 2.09 1.54 40.0
Cheyenne WY 141 2.10 0.78 40.0
Montgomery AL 142 2.25 -0.01 40.1
Annapolis MD 142 2.25 1.02 40.1
Saint Paul MN 142 2.26 1.98 40.1
Atlanta GA 142 2.37 0.08 40.1
Salem OR 141 2.38 1.86 40.0
Springfield IL 142 2.39 2.04 40.1
Nashville TN 141 2.42 0.13 40.0
Austin TX 141 2.44 1.25 40.0
Salt Lake City UT 141 2.48 -0.57 40.0
Richmond VA 141 2.53 1.84 40.0
Charleston WV 141 2.62 1.72 40.0
Trenton NJ 142 2.68 2.27 40.1
Bismarck ND 142 2.73 2.23 40.1
Carson City NV 142 2.76 0.85 40.1
Topeka KS 142 2.80 2.68 40.1
Denver CO 142 2.85 2.24 40.1
Lansing MI 142 2.86 2.39 40.1
Hartford CT 142 2.97 1.94 40.1
Olympia WA 141 3.02 1.11 40.0
Boise ID 142 3.07 1.86 40.1
Columbia SC 141 3.08 -2.71 40.0
Harrisburg PA 141 3.09 2.53 40.0
Providence RI 141 3.16 2.63 40.0
Santa Fe NM 142 3.17 -1.04 40.1
Dover DE 142 3.26 1.09 40.1
Boston MA 142 3.45 2.55 40.1
Augusta ME 142 3.47 1.77 40.1
Oklahoma City OK 141 3.57 2.86 40.0
Helena MT 142 3.63 2.92 40.1
Lincoln NE 142 3.63 3.57 40.1
Pierre SD 141 3.66 3.63 40.0
Phoenix AZ 142 3.81 1.85 40.1
Albany NY 142 4.01 3.40 40.1
Concord NH 142 4.15 3.20 40.1
Montpelier VT 141 4.37 2.13 40.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 20:00 AKDT Juneau AK 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 21:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 99.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Little Rock AR 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 21:00 PDT Sacramento CA 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 22:00 MDT Denver CO 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Hartford CT 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 18:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 22:00 MDT Boise ID 90.0°F 85.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Springfield IL 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Annapolis MD 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Boston MA 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Lansing MI 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Jackson MS 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 22:00 MDT Helena MT 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Lincoln NE 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 21:00 PDT Carson City NV 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Concord NH 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 22:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 72.0°F 79.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Albany NY 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Raleigh NC 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Bismarck ND 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 23:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 79.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-19 21:00 PDT Salem OR 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-20 00:00 EDT Columbia SC 79.0°F 83.0°F -4.0° 48.0