Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.38 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.51 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.59 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.74 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.87 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 1.92 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.93 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.94 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.01 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.02 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.03 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.11 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.14 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.19 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.23 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.28 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.28 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.31 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.35 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.40 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.44 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.46 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.47 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.49 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.50 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.53 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.53 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.54 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.65 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.65 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.66 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.68 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.73 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.80 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.82 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.91 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.94 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.95 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.03 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.09 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 3.18 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.19 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.31 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.77 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.78 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.86 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.91 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 4.05 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 4.40 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 14:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 15:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 16:00 MST | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 16:00 MST | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 16:00 MST | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 15:00 PST | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 16:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 17:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 15:00 PST | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 18:00 EST | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |