Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.44 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 1.61 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.67 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 1.80 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 1.89 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.01 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.05 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.06 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.09 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.12 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.16 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.17 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.20 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.20 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.24 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.30 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.31 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.32 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.34 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.36 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.37 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.38 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.38 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.39 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.39 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.42 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.46 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.48 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.49 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.51 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 2.51 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.60 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.66 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.67 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.67 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.71 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.74 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.82 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.85 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.87 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.88 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.88 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.89 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.95 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.98 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.98 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.12 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.22 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.28 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.40 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 94.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 51.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-04 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |