Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.33 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.54 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 1.56 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 1.72 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.82 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 1.88 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 1.99 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.10 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.15 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.20 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.20 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.21 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.22 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.22 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.22 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.23 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.30 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.30 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.33 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.34 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.35 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.42 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.43 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.44 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 2.47 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.55 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.56 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.59 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.68 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.74 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.75 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.75 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.76 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 2.79 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.80 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.82 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.84 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.87 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.94 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.99 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.01 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.06 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 3.08 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.12 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 3.20 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.23 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 3.25 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.31 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.41 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 3.44 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |