Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.22 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.60 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.98 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.03 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.10 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.30 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.34 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.47 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.48 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.48 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.51 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.51 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.53 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.57 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.66 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.68 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.68 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.71 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.75 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.75 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.77 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.79 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.90 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.91 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.92 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.95 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.97 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.97 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.99 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 3.01 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.01 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.04 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 3.06 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.09 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 3.11 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 3.13 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 3.14 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.14 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.23 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 3.48 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.51 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 3.67 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 3.90 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 4.02 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 4.03 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 4.04 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 4.61 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 4.71 | 4.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 4.88 | 3.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 5.83 | 4.48 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 39.0°F | 35.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |