Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 177 | 1.38 | 0.18 | 45.4 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.69 | -0.83 | 45.4 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.83 | -0.24 | 45.4 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 1.86 | 1.02 | 45.4 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.90 | -1.17 | 45.4 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.93 | 0.69 | 45.2 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.01 | 0.36 | 45.4 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.06 | 0.22 | 45.4 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.15 | -0.82 | 45.4 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.15 | 1.12 | 45.2 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.18 | 1.83 | 45.4 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.20 | 0.86 | 45.4 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.20 | 1.18 | 45.2 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.27 | 1.22 | 45.4 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.31 | 0.14 | 45.4 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.34 | 0.56 | 45.2 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.39 | 1.14 | 45.4 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.42 | 0.02 | 45.4 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.47 | 0.40 | 45.2 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.54 | 0.98 | 45.2 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.56 | 1.80 | 45.4 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.62 | 1.22 | 45.4 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.66 | 1.80 | 45.2 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.67 | 1.45 | 45.4 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.67 | 2.18 | 45.4 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.68 | 2.01 | 45.4 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.70 | 1.15 | 45.2 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.72 | 2.45 | 45.4 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.76 | 0.78 | 45.4 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.90 | 1.92 | 45.4 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.90 | 2.68 | 45.4 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.93 | 1.93 | 45.4 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.93 | 1.73 | 45.2 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.97 | 1.04 | 45.4 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.99 | 1.98 | 45.2 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.00 | -1.49 | 45.2 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.07 | 0.80 | 45.4 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 3.07 | -2.74 | 45.2 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.09 | 1.06 | 45.4 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.21 | -0.07 | 45.2 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.31 | -1.48 | 45.4 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 3.40 | 2.37 | 45.4 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.40 | 2.97 | 45.2 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 3.48 | 2.14 | 45.4 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.56 | 2.90 | 45.4 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.56 | 2.53 | 45.4 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.68 | 0.94 | 45.4 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.91 | 3.81 | 45.4 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.92 | 1.02 | 45.2 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.96 | 3.89 | 45.2 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 83.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-22 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |