Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
22383
1074432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.52°
9500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-01 21:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 190 1.42 -1.06 48.0
Richmond VA 190 1.48 -0.30 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 190 1.62 0.84 48.0
Jackson MS 190 1.72 0.45 48.0
Salem OR 190 1.81 1.01 48.0
Providence RI 190 1.82 -0.37 48.0
Little Rock AR 190 2.01 -0.96 48.0
Trenton NJ 190 2.06 -0.40 48.0
Charleston WV 190 2.12 1.11 48.0
Carson City NV 190 2.13 1.32 48.0
Raleigh NC 190 2.16 1.14 48.0
Augusta ME 190 2.17 -1.40 48.0
Atlanta GA 190 2.19 1.46 48.0
Sacramento CA 190 2.21 1.95 48.0
Boston MA 190 2.22 0.95 48.0
Harrisburg PA 190 2.22 -0.77 48.0
Lansing MI 190 2.24 0.75 48.0
Austin TX 190 2.25 2.24 48.0
Helena MT 190 2.26 0.18 48.0
Annapolis MD 190 2.29 0.87 48.0
Jefferson City MO 190 2.37 0.59 48.0
Hartford CT 190 2.38 -0.82 48.0
Saint Paul MN 190 2.42 1.04 48.0
Nashville TN 190 2.42 0.36 48.0
Dover DE 190 2.46 -0.21 48.0
Lincoln NE 190 2.46 0.42 48.0
Albany NY 190 2.53 0.26 48.0
Des Moines IA 190 2.60 0.15 48.0
Montgomery AL 190 2.63 -0.01 48.0
Columbus OH 190 2.65 0.97 48.0
Columbia SC 190 2.65 -0.52 48.0
Springfield IL 190 2.68 1.97 48.0
Olympia WA 190 2.77 -1.65 48.0
Indianapolis IN 190 2.81 1.55 48.0
Phoenix AZ 190 2.84 -0.60 48.0
Tallahassee FL 190 2.86 0.44 48.0
Juneau AK 190 2.89 0.97 48.0
Topeka KS 190 2.93 0.48 48.0
Concord NH 190 2.98 -1.05 48.0
Madison WI 190 2.98 1.17 48.0
Montpelier VT 190 3.02 1.88 48.0
Santa Fe NM 190 3.06 -1.49 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 190 3.10 1.96 48.0
Pierre SD 190 3.14 1.86 48.0
Denver CO 190 3.22 1.73 48.0
Boise ID 190 3.24 0.34 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 190 3.28 0.51 48.0
Bismarck ND 190 3.36 1.64 48.0
Cheyenne WY 190 3.36 0.22 48.0
Frankfort KY 190 3.71 2.96 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 91.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 13:00 AKDT Juneau AK 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 14:00 MST Phoenix AZ 113.0°F 111.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Little Rock AR 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 14:00 PDT Sacramento CA 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 15:00 MDT Denver CO 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Hartford CT 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Dover DE 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 82.0°F 75.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Atlanta GA 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 11:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 15:00 MDT Boise ID 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Springfield IL 76.0°F 70.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 78.0°F 70.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Des Moines IA 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Topeka KS 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Frankfort KY 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Augusta ME 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Annapolis MD 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Boston MA 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Lansing MI 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 15:00 MDT Helena MT 98.0°F 99.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Lincoln NE 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 14:00 PDT Carson City NV 99.0°F 97.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Concord NH 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Trenton NJ 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 15:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Albany NY 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Raleigh NC 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Bismarck ND 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Columbus OH 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 16:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 14:00 PDT Salem OR 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Providence RI 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-01 17:00 EDT Columbia SC 93.0°F 75.0°F +18.0° 48.0