Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.34 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 1.81 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 1.84 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 1.86 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.94 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.19 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.37 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.43 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.47 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.49 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.50 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.51 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.56 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.58 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.59 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.62 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.63 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.63 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.66 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.68 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.71 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.76 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.78 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.80 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.84 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.92 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.00 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 3.03 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 3.03 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.13 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 3.18 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 3.21 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.23 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 3.25 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.30 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.33 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.33 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.44 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.58 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 3.67 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.74 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 3.74 | 3.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 3.85 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.89 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.90 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 3.93 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 4.11 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 4.47 | 3.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 5.77 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 34.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 59.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 28.0°F | 32.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 50.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 36.0°F | 42.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 68.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |