Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.58 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.74 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.77 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.80 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.87 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 1.93 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 1.95 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 1.96 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.07 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.08 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.16 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.20 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.24 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.25 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.26 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.27 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.30 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.31 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.34 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.34 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.36 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.39 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.41 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.49 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.52 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.52 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.53 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.63 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.66 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.68 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.71 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.71 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.72 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.73 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.75 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.81 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.81 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.81 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.84 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.88 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.05 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 3.13 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 3.17 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.21 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.24 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.26 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 3.33 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.37 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.64 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 4.07 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 04:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 MST | Denver CO | 37.0°F | 37.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 MST | Boise ID | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Topeka KS | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 MST | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 27.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 PST | Carson City NV | 30.0°F | 30.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 06:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 35.0°F | 31.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 07:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 05:00 PST | Salem OR | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-04 08:00 EST | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |