Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.31 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.52 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 168 | 1.57 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 168 | 1.73 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 1.96 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 168 | 2.03 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.04 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.07 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.10 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 168 | 2.10 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.17 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 168 | 2.19 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.24 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.25 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 168 | 2.25 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 168 | 2.28 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 168 | 2.29 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.32 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 168 | 2.33 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.38 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 168 | 2.46 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 168 | 2.46 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 168 | 2.48 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 168 | 2.52 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.58 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 168 | 2.58 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 168 | 2.62 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 168 | 2.65 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.69 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 168 | 2.75 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.81 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.84 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.84 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 168 | 2.88 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.90 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 168 | 2.99 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 168 | 3.05 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 168 | 3.06 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 168 | 3.11 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 168 | 3.11 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 168 | 3.21 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 168 | 3.64 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 168 | 3.76 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.78 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 168 | 3.85 | 3.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 3.88 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 168 | 4.49 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 168 | 4.50 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 168 | 5.95 | 4.08 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 42.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |