Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.27 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.52 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.77 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.85 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 1.97 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.08 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.26 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.27 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.30 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.33 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.35 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.37 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.39 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.40 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.40 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.45 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.50 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.52 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.55 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.56 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.57 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.57 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.59 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.60 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.71 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.74 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.77 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.78 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.78 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.84 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.86 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.86 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.88 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.89 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.94 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.95 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 3.03 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 3.04 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.07 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.13 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.33 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.41 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 3.63 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.64 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 3.88 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 4.09 | 3.82 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 4.15 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 4.43 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 4.94 | 3.47 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 5.64 | 4.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 35.0°F | 31.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 30.0°F | 30.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 36.0°F | 38.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 38.0°F | 43.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 55.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 30.0°F | 27.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 29.0°F | 31.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 41.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 36.0°F | 33.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |