Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.19 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.49 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.53 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.83 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.94 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.05 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.10 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.19 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.19 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.23 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.23 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.24 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.28 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.29 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.29 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.31 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.36 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.36 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.41 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.47 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.48 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.49 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.49 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.51 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.51 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.52 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.57 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.65 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.70 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.74 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.79 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.85 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.88 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.90 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.91 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.99 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.05 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.11 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 3.14 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 3.19 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.25 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.28 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.29 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.41 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.43 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.51 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.75 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.99 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 4.09 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 4.22 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 33.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 69.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |