Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.41 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 1.50 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.81 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.87 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 1.98 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.00 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.07 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.09 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.09 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.11 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.15 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.20 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.22 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.23 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.24 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.26 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.28 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.33 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.33 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.37 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.46 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.46 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.47 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.50 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.51 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.51 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.53 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.53 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.63 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.63 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.64 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.65 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.71 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.76 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.77 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 2.86 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.86 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.88 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.89 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.06 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.09 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 3.26 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.28 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.50 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.75 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 3.81 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.99 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 4.28 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 4.32 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 4.33 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 37.0°F | 42.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 32.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-21 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |