Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 104 | 1.21 | -0.19 | 37.2 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 104 | 1.27 | 0.06 | 37.2 |
| Raleigh NC | 104 | 1.29 | -0.06 | 37.2 |
| Honolulu HI | 104 | 1.51 | -0.13 | 37.2 |
| Cheyenne WY | 103 | 1.57 | 0.31 | 37.0 |
| Columbus OH | 103 | 1.67 | 1.11 | 37.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 104 | 1.75 | -0.42 | 37.2 |
| Jefferson City MO | 104 | 1.80 | 0.66 | 37.2 |
| Juneau AK | 104 | 1.81 | 0.62 | 37.2 |
| Sacramento CA | 104 | 1.85 | -0.10 | 37.2 |
| Indianapolis IN | 104 | 1.87 | 0.25 | 37.2 |
| Madison WI | 103 | 1.92 | 0.37 | 37.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 104 | 1.95 | 1.01 | 37.2 |
| Montgomery AL | 104 | 2.03 | -0.80 | 37.2 |
| Tallahassee FL | 104 | 2.05 | 0.30 | 37.2 |
| Annapolis MD | 104 | 2.06 | 0.94 | 37.2 |
| Frankfort KY | 104 | 2.08 | 0.90 | 37.2 |
| Nashville TN | 103 | 2.23 | 0.16 | 37.0 |
| Springfield IL | 104 | 2.26 | 1.86 | 37.2 |
| Richmond VA | 103 | 2.32 | 1.99 | 37.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 103 | 2.50 | -0.23 | 37.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 104 | 2.52 | -0.52 | 37.2 |
| Saint Paul MN | 104 | 2.56 | 2.19 | 37.2 |
| Salem OR | 103 | 2.63 | 2.11 | 37.0 |
| Charleston WV | 103 | 2.71 | 2.11 | 37.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 103 | 2.76 | 2.10 | 37.0 |
| Topeka KS | 104 | 2.81 | 2.73 | 37.2 |
| Carson City NV | 104 | 2.86 | 1.86 | 37.2 |
| Pierre SD | 103 | 2.87 | 2.83 | 37.0 |
| Lansing MI | 104 | 2.88 | 2.40 | 37.2 |
| Trenton NJ | 104 | 2.92 | 2.44 | 37.2 |
| Austin TX | 103 | 2.99 | 1.88 | 37.0 |
| Denver CO | 104 | 3.01 | 2.43 | 37.2 |
| Bismarck ND | 104 | 3.08 | 2.75 | 37.2 |
| Hartford CT | 104 | 3.13 | 2.24 | 37.2 |
| Boise ID | 104 | 3.13 | 1.51 | 37.2 |
| Columbia SC | 103 | 3.15 | -2.72 | 37.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 104 | 3.19 | -0.69 | 37.2 |
| Providence RI | 103 | 3.19 | 2.73 | 37.0 |
| Dover DE | 104 | 3.21 | 1.44 | 37.2 |
| Olympia WA | 103 | 3.38 | 1.07 | 37.0 |
| Augusta ME | 104 | 3.39 | 1.26 | 37.2 |
| Boston MA | 104 | 3.42 | 2.69 | 37.2 |
| Helena MT | 104 | 3.86 | 3.01 | 37.2 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 103 | 3.91 | 2.96 | 37.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 104 | 4.02 | 2.37 | 37.2 |
| Lincoln NE | 104 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 37.2 |
| Albany NY | 104 | 4.31 | 3.50 | 37.2 |
| Concord NH | 104 | 4.34 | 3.63 | 37.2 |
| Montpelier VT | 103 | 4.48 | 2.09 | 37.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 64.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 65.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |