Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.44 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.52 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.54 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.56 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.76 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.81 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.81 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.84 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.97 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.12 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.13 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.16 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.21 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.22 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.29 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.33 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.38 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.40 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.41 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.46 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.52 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.57 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.61 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.63 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.67 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.67 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.71 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.76 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.83 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.87 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.89 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.98 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.02 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.03 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.03 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.16 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 3.17 | -2.83 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 3.26 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.26 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.31 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.39 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 3.40 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 3.46 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.57 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.58 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 3.63 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.84 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 4.03 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 4.12 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 4.13 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 34.0°F | 27.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-28 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 37.0°F | 42.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 34.0°F | 39.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 29.0°F | 35.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 33.0°F | 32.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |