Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.37 | 0.23 | 41.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 1.65 | 0.82 | 41.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.66 | -0.81 | 41.9 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.78 | -0.91 | 41.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.85 | -0.14 | 41.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.85 | 0.37 | 41.9 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.07 | 0.97 | 41.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.10 | 1.06 | 41.9 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.10 | 1.10 | 41.9 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.13 | 1.06 | 41.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.16 | -0.91 | 41.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.17 | 0.85 | 41.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.17 | 0.18 | 41.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.17 | 1.82 | 41.9 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.21 | 0.12 | 41.9 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.23 | 0.10 | 41.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.23 | 0.56 | 41.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.26 | 1.03 | 41.9 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.32 | 1.37 | 41.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.37 | 0.94 | 41.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.42 | 0.32 | 41.9 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.49 | 1.71 | 41.9 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.54 | 2.26 | 41.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.56 | 1.81 | 41.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.57 | 1.89 | 41.9 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.57 | 1.24 | 41.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.59 | 2.13 | 41.9 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.63 | 2.36 | 41.9 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.74 | 1.68 | 41.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.80 | -1.33 | 41.9 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.82 | 1.83 | 41.9 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.95 | 1.01 | 41.9 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.95 | 0.67 | 41.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.97 | 1.76 | 41.9 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.99 | 1.91 | 41.9 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.02 | 1.75 | 41.9 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 3.03 | 2.20 | 41.9 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 3.03 | -2.71 | 41.9 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.08 | 0.45 | 41.9 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.11 | 1.36 | 41.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.38 | 2.74 | 41.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.40 | -1.59 | 41.9 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 3.54 | 2.29 | 41.9 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.56 | 2.92 | 41.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.63 | 3.54 | 41.9 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 3.66 | 2.74 | 41.9 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.74 | 3.66 | 41.9 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.84 | 2.77 | 41.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 4.09 | 1.51 | 41.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 4.23 | 1.65 | 41.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 81.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 99.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 100.0°F | 100.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 100.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 76.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 83.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 65.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 84.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 102.0°F | 102.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 94.0°F | 98.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-21 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |