Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 116 | 1.18 | -0.08 | 38.3 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 116 | 1.19 | 0.10 | 38.3 |
| Raleigh NC | 116 | 1.53 | 0.06 | 38.3 |
| Honolulu HI | 116 | 1.54 | -0.28 | 38.3 |
| Cheyenne WY | 115 | 1.64 | 0.43 | 38.2 |
| Little Rock AR | 116 | 1.72 | -0.53 | 38.3 |
| Jefferson City MO | 116 | 1.72 | 0.53 | 38.3 |
| Sacramento CA | 116 | 1.78 | -0.04 | 38.3 |
| Juneau AK | 116 | 1.87 | 0.30 | 38.3 |
| Madison WI | 115 | 1.88 | 0.49 | 38.2 |
| Montgomery AL | 116 | 1.97 | -0.80 | 38.3 |
| Frankfort KY | 116 | 2.02 | 0.97 | 38.3 |
| Des Moines IA | 116 | 2.03 | 1.18 | 38.3 |
| Indianapolis IN | 116 | 2.06 | 0.08 | 38.3 |
| Columbus OH | 115 | 2.07 | 1.39 | 38.2 |
| Tallahassee FL | 116 | 2.09 | 0.34 | 38.3 |
| Saint Paul MN | 116 | 2.34 | 2.02 | 38.3 |
| Springfield IL | 116 | 2.35 | 1.99 | 38.3 |
| Nashville TN | 115 | 2.35 | 0.14 | 38.2 |
| Annapolis MD | 116 | 2.37 | 0.92 | 38.3 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 115 | 2.50 | -0.18 | 38.2 |
| Atlanta GA | 116 | 2.52 | -0.28 | 38.3 |
| Richmond VA | 115 | 2.55 | 2.18 | 38.2 |
| Salem OR | 115 | 2.58 | 2.11 | 38.2 |
| Carson City NV | 116 | 2.74 | 1.50 | 38.3 |
| Austin TX | 115 | 2.79 | 1.59 | 38.2 |
| Lansing MI | 116 | 2.83 | 2.26 | 38.3 |
| Charleston WV | 115 | 2.88 | 2.32 | 38.2 |
| Bismarck ND | 116 | 2.91 | 2.48 | 38.3 |
| Boise ID | 116 | 2.92 | 1.46 | 38.3 |
| Trenton NJ | 116 | 2.94 | 2.51 | 38.3 |
| Denver CO | 116 | 3.01 | 2.46 | 38.3 |
| Topeka KS | 116 | 3.06 | 2.99 | 38.3 |
| Columbia SC | 115 | 3.10 | -2.65 | 38.2 |
| Santa Fe NM | 116 | 3.11 | -0.82 | 38.3 |
| Harrisburg PA | 115 | 3.15 | 2.56 | 38.2 |
| Pierre SD | 115 | 3.22 | 3.18 | 38.2 |
| Hartford CT | 116 | 3.29 | 2.38 | 38.3 |
| Olympia WA | 115 | 3.30 | 1.23 | 38.2 |
| Providence RI | 115 | 3.48 | 2.97 | 38.2 |
| Dover DE | 116 | 3.69 | 1.14 | 38.3 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 115 | 3.71 | 2.84 | 38.2 |
| Boston MA | 116 | 3.74 | 2.97 | 38.3 |
| Augusta ME | 116 | 3.86 | 1.95 | 38.3 |
| Helena MT | 116 | 3.90 | 3.14 | 38.3 |
| Lincoln NE | 116 | 4.03 | 4.03 | 38.3 |
| Phoenix AZ | 116 | 4.16 | 2.68 | 38.3 |
| Concord NH | 116 | 4.58 | 3.94 | 38.3 |
| Albany NY | 116 | 4.66 | 3.94 | 38.3 |
| Montpelier VT | 115 | 4.84 | 2.70 | 38.2 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 76.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-18 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |