Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.32 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.71 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.91 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 1.92 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 1.99 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.24 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.34 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.34 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.40 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.44 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.46 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.46 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.50 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.53 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.58 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.59 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.61 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.61 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.70 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.71 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.71 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.72 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.75 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.81 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.82 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.85 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.93 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.97 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.01 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.11 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.14 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.16 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.18 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 3.18 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 3.20 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.26 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 3.27 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.28 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.32 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.45 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.51 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 3.59 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.66 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.74 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 3.76 | 3.51 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 3.82 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.91 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 4.38 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 4.53 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 37.0°F | 40.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 57.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 66.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 40.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 27.0°F | 29.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 52.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 34.0°F | 30.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |