Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
733
35232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.40°
684 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-14 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 14 0.79 0.50 7.5
Annapolis MD 14 0.79 0.07 7.5
Raleigh NC 14 0.79 -0.36 7.5
Pierre SD 13 0.85 0.69 7.0
Cheyenne WY 13 0.85 -0.38 7.0
Columbus OH 13 0.92 0.15 7.0
Richmond VA 13 1.00 0.54 7.0
Nashville TN 13 1.08 0.00 7.0
Juneau AK 14 1.14 0.29 7.5
Baton Rouge LA 14 1.21 0.93 7.5
Tallahassee FL 14 1.29 -0.43 7.5
Frankfort KY 14 1.36 0.79 7.5
Columbia SC 13 1.38 -1.38 7.0
Saint Paul MN 14 1.50 1.36 7.5
Jefferson City MO 14 1.50 1.07 7.5
Indianapolis IN 14 1.57 0.29 7.5
Charleston WV 13 1.62 1.62 7.0
Little Rock AR 14 1.64 -1.36 7.5
Salem OR 13 1.69 0.46 7.0
Salt Lake City UT 13 1.69 0.77 7.0
Springfield IL 14 1.71 1.00 7.5
Des Moines IA 14 1.71 1.29 7.5
Topeka KS 14 1.71 1.57 7.5
Madison WI 13 1.77 0.23 7.0
Helena MT 14 1.79 0.50 7.5
Jackson MS 14 1.86 1.57 7.5
Trenton NJ 14 1.86 1.00 7.5
Bismarck ND 14 1.86 1.86 7.5
Oklahoma City OK 13 1.92 -1.31 7.0
Montgomery AL 14 1.93 0.64 7.5
Harrisburg PA 13 2.00 1.08 7.0
Providence RI 13 2.08 1.77 7.0
Sacramento CA 14 2.14 -2.14 7.5
Lansing MI 14 2.14 1.71 7.5
Lincoln NE 14 2.57 2.57 7.5
Hartford CT 14 2.71 1.43 7.5
Santa Fe NM 14 2.71 -2.57 7.5
Austin TX 13 2.77 2.77 7.0
Boston MA 14 2.79 2.50 7.5
Dover DE 14 2.93 1.64 7.5
Atlanta GA 14 3.14 -2.57 7.5
Carson City NV 14 3.93 3.64 7.5
Augusta ME 14 4.57 4.43 7.5
Denver CO 14 4.86 4.86 7.5
Boise ID 14 4.86 3.00 7.5
Concord NH 14 5.07 2.93 7.5
Olympia WA 13 5.08 2.00 7.0
Albany NY 14 5.71 4.43 7.5
Montpelier VT 13 6.46 5.69 7.0
Phoenix AZ 14 8.21 8.21 7.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 83.0°F 73.0°F +10.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 106.0°F 98.0°F +8.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT Denver CO 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 96.0°F 89.0°F +7.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Dover DE 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT Boise ID 86.0°F 75.0°F +11.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 90.0°F 86.0°F +4.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 93.0°F 81.0°F +12.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Boston MA 96.0°F 88.0°F +8.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 99.0°F 95.0°F +4.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 96.0°F 93.0°F +3.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT Helena MT 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 91.0°F 86.0°F +5.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Concord NH 96.0°F 88.0°F +8.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 80.0°F 85.0°F -5.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Albany NY 99.0°F 93.0°F +6.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 13:00 PDT Salem OR 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 94.0°F 91.0°F +3.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Providence RI 94.0°F 88.0°F +6.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 13.0