Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.43 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.65 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 1.68 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 1.85 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.95 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.01 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.04 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.11 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.11 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.13 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.17 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.21 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.23 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.24 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.24 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.27 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.29 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.30 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.32 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.32 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.34 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.39 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.39 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.42 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.45 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.49 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.49 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.50 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.51 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.51 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.52 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.55 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 2.62 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.64 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.69 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.77 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.79 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.85 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.87 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.94 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.02 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 3.05 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.06 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 3.06 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 3.14 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.29 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.33 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.38 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.49 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 104.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-02 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-03 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |