Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
16233
779232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.64°
9350 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-27 18:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 187 1.52 -0.95 48.0
Providence RI 187 1.56 0.06 48.0
Augusta ME 187 1.64 -0.30 48.0
Hartford CT 187 1.78 0.16 48.0
Little Rock AR 187 1.89 -0.34 48.0
Jackson MS 187 1.93 1.12 48.0
Tallahassee FL 187 1.97 -0.11 48.0
Austin TX 187 1.97 1.40 48.0
Trenton NJ 187 2.00 0.13 48.0
Concord NH 187 2.06 0.73 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 187 2.07 1.56 48.0
Charleston WV 187 2.07 -0.25 48.0
Albany NY 187 2.11 0.36 48.0
Atlanta GA 187 2.16 0.42 48.0
Harrisburg PA 187 2.16 -0.29 48.0
Lansing MI 187 2.24 0.83 48.0
Indianapolis IN 187 2.25 0.67 48.0
Columbus OH 187 2.29 1.35 48.0
Boston MA 187 2.37 1.18 48.0
Dover DE 187 2.43 0.64 48.0
Jefferson City MO 187 2.43 0.76 48.0
Richmond VA 187 2.43 0.49 48.0
Helena MT 187 2.51 1.12 48.0
Annapolis MD 187 2.54 1.10 48.0
Raleigh NC 187 2.64 0.78 48.0
Montgomery AL 187 2.65 1.17 48.0
Juneau AK 187 2.67 0.66 48.0
Nashville TN 187 2.70 0.68 48.0
Springfield IL 187 2.80 2.34 48.0
Topeka KS 187 2.81 0.76 48.0
Carson City NV 187 2.81 1.09 48.0
Columbia SC 187 2.81 -1.84 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 187 2.86 -2.03 48.0
Saint Paul MN 187 2.92 1.93 48.0
Santa Fe NM 187 2.97 -0.98 48.0
Sacramento CA 187 3.01 0.73 48.0
Des Moines IA 187 3.04 0.97 48.0
Salem OR 187 3.12 1.31 48.0
Madison WI 187 3.14 1.48 48.0
Cheyenne WY 187 3.15 -0.12 48.0
Olympia WA 187 3.19 -1.42 48.0
Montpelier VT 187 3.32 1.51 48.0
Boise ID 187 3.37 2.83 48.0
Lincoln NE 187 3.39 1.74 48.0
Phoenix AZ 187 3.42 -0.44 48.0
Frankfort KY 187 3.50 2.67 48.0
Denver CO 187 3.57 0.76 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 187 3.67 3.20 48.0
Bismarck ND 187 3.93 3.17 48.0
Pierre SD 187 4.32 3.33 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Montgomery AL 92.0°F 86.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 10:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 MST Phoenix AZ 103.0°F 101.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Little Rock AR 99.0°F 97.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 PDT Sacramento CA 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 12:00 MDT Denver CO 94.0°F 84.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Hartford CT 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Dover DE 86.0°F 75.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 83.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 08:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 12:00 MDT Boise ID 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Springfield IL 95.0°F 87.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Des Moines IA 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Topeka KS 98.0°F 93.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Frankfort KY 92.0°F 85.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Augusta ME 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Annapolis MD 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Boston MA 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Lansing MI 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 92.0°F 95.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Jackson MS 96.0°F 93.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 12:00 MDT Helena MT 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Lincoln NE 98.0°F 95.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 PDT Carson City NV 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Concord NH 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Trenton NJ 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 12:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Albany NY 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Raleigh NC 89.0°F 84.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Bismarck ND 92.0°F 87.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Columbus OH 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 13:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 99.0°F 96.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 11:00 PDT Salem OR 71.0°F 65.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Providence RI 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-27 14:00 EDT Columbia SC 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0