Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.39 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.63 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.68 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 1.82 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.85 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.93 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.94 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.95 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.96 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.01 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.07 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.14 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.18 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.24 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.25 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.30 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.32 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.33 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.37 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.37 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.40 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.40 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.47 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.49 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.51 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.53 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.54 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.57 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.57 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.59 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.59 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.59 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.73 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.73 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.86 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.89 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 3.02 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.04 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.05 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.19 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 3.27 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.30 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.36 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.80 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.82 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.87 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.99 | 3.04 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 4.07 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 4.62 | 3.23 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 04:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 MST | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Hartford CT | 39.0°F | 35.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Dover DE | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 MST | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 37.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Boston MA | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 MST | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 40.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 PST | Carson City NV | 34.0°F | 39.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Concord NH | 33.0°F | 32.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 53.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Albany NY | 37.0°F | 33.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 07:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 PST | Salem OR | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 37.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Providence RI | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 EST | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |