Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 21 | 0.76 | -0.48 | 11.0 |
| Columbus OH | 20 | 0.85 | 0.25 | 10.5 |
| Richmond VA | 20 | 0.85 | 0.25 | 10.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 22 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 11.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 22 | 1.14 | -0.59 | 11.5 |
| Juneau AK | 22 | 1.18 | 0.55 | 11.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 22 | 1.18 | 0.36 | 11.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 22 | 1.32 | 0.23 | 11.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 20 | 1.50 | 0.70 | 10.5 |
| Nashville TN | 20 | 1.55 | -0.65 | 10.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 22 | 1.68 | 0.50 | 11.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 20 | 1.70 | -1.10 | 10.5 |
| Madison WI | 20 | 1.70 | 0.70 | 10.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 21 | 1.71 | 0.67 | 11.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 22 | 1.73 | 0.55 | 11.5 |
| Pierre SD | 20 | 1.75 | 1.65 | 10.5 |
| Charleston WV | 20 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 10.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 21 | 1.81 | 1.81 | 11.0 |
| Jackson MS | 21 | 1.86 | 0.43 | 11.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 21 | 1.90 | 1.33 | 11.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 22 | 2.00 | -0.09 | 11.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 20 | 2.00 | 1.40 | 10.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 22 | 2.05 | -1.95 | 11.5 |
| Topeka KS | 22 | 2.09 | 2.00 | 11.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 22 | 2.18 | 1.18 | 11.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 20 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 10.5 |
| Salem OR | 20 | 2.35 | 1.55 | 10.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 22 | 2.36 | -1.64 | 11.5 |
| Springfield IL | 22 | 2.36 | 1.91 | 11.5 |
| Lansing MI | 21 | 2.38 | 2.10 | 11.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 21 | 2.52 | 2.43 | 11.0 |
| Columbia SC | 20 | 2.60 | -2.60 | 10.5 |
| Dover DE | 22 | 2.77 | 0.32 | 11.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 22 | 2.86 | 0.59 | 11.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 21 | 2.95 | -1.24 | 11.0 |
| Hartford CT | 22 | 3.00 | 2.18 | 11.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 21 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 11.0 |
| Providence RI | 20 | 3.25 | 3.05 | 10.5 |
| Helena MT | 21 | 3.57 | 2.71 | 11.0 |
| Boston MA | 22 | 3.64 | 3.45 | 11.5 |
| Denver CO | 22 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 11.5 |
| Carson City NV | 21 | 3.86 | 2.90 | 11.0 |
| Austin TX | 20 | 4.05 | 4.05 | 10.5 |
| Boise ID | 22 | 4.36 | 3.18 | 11.5 |
| Olympia WA | 20 | 4.50 | 0.10 | 10.5 |
| Albany NY | 21 | 5.29 | 4.43 | 11.0 |
| Augusta ME | 21 | 5.76 | 5.67 | 11.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 20 | 5.90 | 5.00 | 10.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 22 | 6.00 | 5.73 | 11.5 |
| Concord NH | 21 | 6.00 | 4.57 | 11.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 102.0°F | -2.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 22.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 103.0°F | -1.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 21.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 21.0 |