Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
14333
688032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.60°
8650 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-26 04:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 173 1.73 -1.26 48.0
Augusta ME 173 1.73 -0.28 48.0
Providence RI 173 1.73 0.23 48.0
Austin TX 173 1.75 0.99 48.0
Little Rock AR 173 1.79 -0.20 48.0
Charleston WV 173 1.80 -0.62 48.0
Hartford CT 173 1.83 0.08 48.0
Trenton NJ 173 1.84 0.17 48.0
Jackson MS 173 1.90 1.18 48.0
Albany NY 173 1.92 0.60 48.0
Columbus OH 173 1.96 1.01 48.0
Tallahassee FL 173 2.01 0.28 48.0
Atlanta GA 173 2.02 0.63 48.0
Indianapolis IN 173 2.06 0.24 48.0
Concord NH 173 2.08 0.35 48.0
Dover DE 173 2.20 0.45 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 173 2.24 1.72 48.0
Harrisburg PA 173 2.24 0.10 48.0
Lansing MI 173 2.33 1.37 48.0
Boston MA 173 2.38 1.06 48.0
Jefferson City MO 173 2.49 1.21 48.0
Annapolis MD 173 2.52 1.12 48.0
Richmond VA 173 2.52 0.55 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 173 2.55 -1.66 48.0
Helena MT 173 2.56 1.55 48.0
Nashville TN 173 2.57 0.45 48.0
Montgomery AL 173 2.66 1.17 48.0
Raleigh NC 173 2.66 0.80 48.0
Juneau AK 173 2.69 0.29 48.0
Topeka KS 173 2.79 1.51 48.0
Carson City NV 173 2.87 0.38 48.0
Montpelier VT 173 2.88 0.79 48.0
Frankfort KY 173 2.90 2.03 48.0
Saint Paul MN 173 2.90 2.49 48.0
Columbia SC 173 2.95 -2.20 48.0
Santa Fe NM 173 2.96 -0.84 48.0
Madison WI 173 2.97 2.34 48.0
Des Moines IA 173 2.98 1.92 48.0
Springfield IL 173 3.00 2.87 48.0
Sacramento CA 173 3.06 0.46 48.0
Cheyenne WY 173 3.06 0.02 48.0
Salem OR 173 3.08 1.17 48.0
Olympia WA 173 3.21 -1.16 48.0
Boise ID 173 3.23 2.69 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 173 3.40 2.96 48.0
Phoenix AZ 173 3.41 -0.67 48.0
Lincoln NE 173 3.49 2.34 48.0
Bismarck ND 173 3.49 2.89 48.0
Denver CO 173 3.52 1.01 48.0
Pierre SD 173 5.11 4.31 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 20:00 AKDT Juneau AK 62.0°F 70.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 MST Phoenix AZ 107.0°F 99.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 PDT Sacramento CA 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 MDT Denver CO 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Hartford CT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Atlanta GA 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 18:00 HST Honolulu HI 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 MDT Boise ID 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Springfield IL 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Des Moines IA 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Topeka KS 81.0°F 87.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Augusta ME 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Boston MA 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Lansing MI 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Jackson MS 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 MDT Helena MT 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Lincoln NE 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 PDT Carson City NV 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Concord NH 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Trenton NJ 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 22:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Albany NY 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Raleigh NC 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Bismarck ND 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 23:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-25 21:00 PDT Salem OR 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Providence RI 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-26 00:00 EDT Columbia SC 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0