Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
19383
930432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.55°
8900 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-30 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 178 1.21 -0.65 48.0
Providence RI 178 1.58 -0.35 48.0
Jackson MS 178 1.70 0.85 48.0
Richmond VA 178 1.72 -0.20 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 178 1.77 1.35 48.0
Little Rock AR 178 1.81 0.06 48.0
Trenton NJ 178 1.93 0.00 48.0
Boston MA 178 1.97 1.25 48.0
Carson City NV 178 1.98 0.67 48.0
Augusta ME 178 1.99 -1.11 48.0
Hartford CT 178 2.09 -0.45 48.0
Charleston WV 178 2.10 0.55 48.0
Lansing MI 178 2.18 1.16 48.0
Atlanta GA 178 2.22 0.55 48.0
Columbus OH 178 2.24 1.80 48.0
Concord NH 178 2.25 0.21 48.0
Jefferson City MO 178 2.26 0.23 48.0
Annapolis MD 178 2.29 0.86 48.0
Helena MT 178 2.30 0.46 48.0
Raleigh NC 178 2.30 1.60 48.0
Harrisburg PA 178 2.33 -0.38 48.0
Lincoln NE 178 2.38 -0.07 48.0
Austin TX 178 2.38 2.25 48.0
Sacramento CA 178 2.48 2.12 48.0
Dover DE 178 2.48 0.13 48.0
Des Moines IA 178 2.49 -0.39 48.0
Tallahassee FL 178 2.51 0.20 48.0
Albany NY 178 2.52 0.61 48.0
Montgomery AL 178 2.59 0.66 48.0
Springfield IL 178 2.60 2.12 48.0
Juneau AK 178 2.61 0.81 48.0
Nashville TN 178 2.62 -0.01 48.0
Olympia WA 178 2.62 -0.76 48.0
Salem OR 178 2.64 2.17 48.0
Saint Paul MN 178 2.71 1.48 48.0
Indianapolis IN 178 2.77 1.62 48.0
Phoenix AZ 178 2.92 -0.80 48.0
Santa Fe NM 178 2.92 -0.62 48.0
Topeka KS 178 2.98 0.61 48.0
Montpelier VT 178 3.03 2.09 48.0
Boise ID 178 3.12 2.43 48.0
Madison WI 178 3.17 1.36 48.0
Columbia SC 178 3.18 -1.25 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 178 3.19 -0.04 48.0
Cheyenne WY 178 3.50 0.94 48.0
Pierre SD 178 3.54 2.16 48.0
Denver CO 178 3.72 2.24 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 178 3.80 3.34 48.0
Frankfort KY 178 3.85 3.54 48.0
Bismarck ND 178 4.04 3.01 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 80.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 46.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 100.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 MDT Denver CO 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Dover DE 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 MDT Boise ID 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 66.0°F 62.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 59.0°F 64.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 MDT Helena MT 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 66.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Albany NY 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 02:00 PDT Salem OR 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Providence RI 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0