Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
27833
1336032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.56°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-06 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Lansing MI 179 1.82 0.01 48.0
Little Rock AR 179 1.83 -0.47 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 1.88 -1.56 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 1.89 0.44 48.0
Richmond VA 179 1.89 -0.85 48.0
Austin TX 179 1.96 1.76 48.0
Nashville TN 179 1.99 0.32 48.0
Charleston WV 179 2.07 0.97 48.0
Topeka KS 179 2.12 1.08 48.0
Juneau AK 179 2.21 0.57 48.0
Augusta ME 179 2.21 -1.33 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 2.22 1.36 48.0
Providence RI 179 2.22 -0.64 48.0
Columbus OH 179 2.26 -1.03 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.28 0.04 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 2.28 -0.80 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 2.29 -1.55 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 2.30 1.05 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 2.32 1.41 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 2.33 1.70 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 2.34 -1.05 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 2.45 -0.22 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.45 0.42 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 2.46 -0.54 48.0
Albany NY 179 2.46 -1.19 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 2.47 1.20 48.0
Jackson MS 179 2.53 1.45 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.54 -1.37 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.54 -1.46 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.54 0.83 48.0
Springfield IL 179 2.57 1.68 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 2.60 2.10 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.63 0.59 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 2.69 -0.63 48.0
Salem OR 179 2.70 1.87 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.71 -1.08 48.0
Carson City NV 179 2.73 2.17 48.0
Boise ID 179 2.76 -0.93 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 2.78 -1.27 48.0
Helena MT 179 2.82 0.16 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 3.02 -1.46 48.0
Concord NH 179 3.17 -2.40 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 3.18 0.77 48.0
Olympia WA 179 3.24 0.74 48.0
Pierre SD 179 3.33 1.63 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 3.39 -2.09 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 3.43 0.55 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 3.46 0.36 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 3.63 2.74 48.0
Denver CO 179 4.18 2.50 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 04:00 MDT Denver CO 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 69.0°F 75.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 04:00 MDT Boise ID 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 60.0°F 67.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 04:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Concord NH 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 72.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Albany NY 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 57.0°F 65.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 03:00 PDT Salem OR 67.0°F 61.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-06 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0