Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.19 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 1.58 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.71 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.73 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 1.74 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.81 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.95 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 1.98 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.03 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.04 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.09 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.10 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.18 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.20 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.24 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.27 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.29 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.29 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.30 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.31 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.34 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.35 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.38 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.44 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.45 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.47 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.48 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.49 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.60 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.61 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.63 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.64 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.64 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.66 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.70 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.74 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.90 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.92 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.95 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.98 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 3.09 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 3.14 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 3.20 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.21 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.49 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.52 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.69 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 3.80 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.80 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.98 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-30 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |