Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 39 | 0.90 | 0.64 | 20.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 39 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 20.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 39 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 20.0 |
| Juneau AK | 39 | 1.21 | 0.74 | 20.0 |
| Columbus OH | 38 | 1.24 | 0.71 | 19.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 39 | 1.33 | -0.36 | 20.0 |
| Richmond VA | 38 | 1.34 | 0.76 | 19.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 39 | 1.38 | 0.62 | 20.0 |
| Jackson MS | 39 | 1.51 | -0.13 | 20.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 38 | 1.53 | 0.21 | 19.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 39 | 1.62 | 0.95 | 20.0 |
| Nashville TN | 38 | 1.68 | -0.21 | 19.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 39 | 1.77 | 0.64 | 20.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 38 | 1.87 | 0.76 | 19.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 39 | 1.92 | 0.74 | 20.0 |
| Lansing MI | 39 | 1.92 | 1.36 | 20.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 39 | 1.97 | 1.36 | 20.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 38 | 2.00 | 0.89 | 19.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 39 | 2.03 | 0.85 | 20.0 |
| Salem OR | 38 | 2.03 | 1.39 | 19.5 |
| Madison WI | 38 | 2.03 | 1.50 | 19.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 39 | 2.08 | 0.03 | 20.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 39 | 2.13 | 0.44 | 20.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 39 | 2.13 | 2.13 | 20.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 39 | 2.18 | -1.87 | 20.0 |
| Springfield IL | 39 | 2.18 | 1.67 | 20.0 |
| Topeka KS | 39 | 2.18 | 2.13 | 20.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 39 | 2.38 | -1.97 | 20.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 38 | 2.39 | -0.13 | 19.5 |
| Pierre SD | 38 | 2.53 | 2.47 | 19.5 |
| Dover DE | 39 | 2.59 | 0.64 | 20.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 39 | 2.64 | 2.38 | 20.0 |
| Olympia WA | 38 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 19.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 39 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 20.0 |
| Helena MT | 39 | 3.15 | 2.69 | 20.0 |
| Columbia SC | 38 | 3.18 | -3.18 | 19.5 |
| Charleston WV | 38 | 3.26 | 3.26 | 19.5 |
| Boise ID | 39 | 3.28 | 2.46 | 20.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 39 | 3.33 | -2.41 | 20.0 |
| Denver CO | 39 | 3.51 | 3.51 | 20.0 |
| Hartford CT | 39 | 3.59 | 2.31 | 20.0 |
| Austin TX | 38 | 4.13 | 4.08 | 19.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 39 | 4.18 | 2.90 | 20.0 |
| Augusta ME | 39 | 4.21 | 2.51 | 20.0 |
| Providence RI | 38 | 4.39 | 4.29 | 19.5 |
| Boston MA | 39 | 4.44 | 4.18 | 20.0 |
| Carson City NV | 39 | 4.97 | 4.41 | 20.0 |
| Concord NH | 39 | 5.15 | 4.08 | 20.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 38 | 5.55 | 3.34 | 19.5 |
| Albany NY | 39 | 5.77 | 3.82 | 20.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 105.0°F | +1.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 94.0°F | 82.0°F | +12.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 96.0°F | 91.0°F | +5.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 92.0°F | 83.0°F | +9.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 97.0°F | 92.0°F | +5.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 90.0°F | 80.0°F | +10.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 100.0°F | 96.0°F | +4.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 84.0°F | -7.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 92.0°F | 76.0°F | +16.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 99.0°F | 95.0°F | +4.0° | 39.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 93.0°F | 82.0°F | +11.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 38.0 |