Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
20683
992832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.51°
9000 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-31 11:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 180 1.34 -0.76 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 180 1.59 0.86 48.0
Richmond VA 180 1.65 -0.56 48.0
Jackson MS 180 1.66 0.57 48.0
Providence RI 180 1.66 -0.22 48.0
Salem OR 180 1.84 1.13 48.0
Trenton NJ 180 1.95 -0.06 48.0
Sacramento CA 180 1.98 1.61 48.0
Little Rock AR 180 1.99 -0.50 48.0
Charleston WV 180 1.99 0.79 48.0
Carson City NV 180 2.03 1.04 48.0
Boston MA 180 2.06 1.34 48.0
Augusta ME 180 2.11 -1.26 48.0
Hartford CT 180 2.17 -0.51 48.0
Raleigh NC 180 2.20 1.64 48.0
Lansing MI 180 2.23 0.87 48.0
Saint Paul MN 180 2.23 0.90 48.0
Annapolis MD 180 2.27 0.84 48.0
Jefferson City MO 180 2.30 0.32 48.0
Austin TX 180 2.31 2.30 48.0
Helena MT 180 2.36 0.36 48.0
Atlanta GA 180 2.37 0.96 48.0
Albany NY 180 2.42 0.54 48.0
Columbus OH 180 2.47 1.34 48.0
Harrisburg PA 180 2.49 -0.52 48.0
Dover DE 180 2.51 0.02 48.0
Des Moines IA 180 2.53 -0.22 48.0
Lincoln NE 180 2.56 0.13 48.0
Nashville TN 180 2.56 0.18 48.0
Tallahassee FL 180 2.58 0.26 48.0
Juneau AK 180 2.65 0.65 48.0
Springfield IL 180 2.65 2.01 48.0
Concord NH 180 2.66 -0.33 48.0
Columbia SC 180 2.67 -0.62 48.0
Olympia WA 180 2.71 -1.15 48.0
Madison WI 180 2.77 0.88 48.0
Montgomery AL 180 2.84 0.13 48.0
Indianapolis IN 180 2.87 1.48 48.0
Boise ID 180 2.96 1.86 48.0
Topeka KS 180 3.02 0.55 48.0
Phoenix AZ 180 3.04 -0.85 48.0
Santa Fe NM 180 3.05 -1.25 48.0
Montpelier VT 180 3.11 2.04 48.0
Denver CO 180 3.27 1.56 48.0
Pierre SD 180 3.28 1.82 48.0
Cheyenne WY 180 3.35 0.73 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 180 3.40 0.43 48.0
Bismarck ND 180 3.57 1.62 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 180 3.61 3.09 48.0
Frankfort KY 180 3.77 3.43 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Montgomery AL 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 03:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 04:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 96.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 04:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 05:00 MDT Denver CO 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Hartford CT 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Dover DE 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Atlanta GA 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 01:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 05:00 MDT Boise ID 59.0°F 69.0°F -10.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Springfield IL 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Des Moines IA 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Topeka KS 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Frankfort KY 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Lansing MI 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 05:00 MDT Helena MT 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Lincoln NE 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 04:00 PDT Carson City NV 61.0°F 57.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Concord NH 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Trenton NJ 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 05:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 65.0°F 72.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Albany NY 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Raleigh NC 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Bismarck ND 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Columbus OH 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 06:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 04:00 PDT Salem OR 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-31 07:00 EDT Columbia SC 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0