Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.45 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.48 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.77 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.79 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.92 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.03 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.07 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.08 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.09 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.17 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.20 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.21 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.25 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.25 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.27 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.31 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.36 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.41 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.42 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.44 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.46 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.47 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.51 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.54 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.56 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.61 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.61 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.66 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.90 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.91 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.97 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.98 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.98 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.01 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.10 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.12 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.13 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 3.15 | -2.85 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 3.17 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 3.27 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.28 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.35 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.40 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.51 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 3.55 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.55 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.70 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.80 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.91 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 4.02 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 35.0°F | 27.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 38.0°F | 31.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 30.0°F | 32.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 28.0°F | 26.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 35.0°F | 34.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 28.0°F | 26.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 35.0°F | 34.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 32.0°F | 29.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 32.0°F | 26.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 41.0°F | 36.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 49.0°F | 56.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |