Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.31 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.45 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.53 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.81 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.00 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.01 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.05 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.14 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.16 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.18 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.22 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.24 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.24 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.24 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.25 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.27 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.29 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.30 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.31 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.31 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.36 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.37 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.38 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.38 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.38 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.39 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.42 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.55 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.58 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.60 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.64 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.67 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.75 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.75 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.78 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.97 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 3.03 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.08 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.10 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.11 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.20 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.42 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.58 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.60 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 3.74 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.92 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 4.02 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 4.13 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 4.27 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 5.83 | 3.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 50.0°F | 57.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 46.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |