Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.45 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.52 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.71 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 1.81 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.86 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.02 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.02 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.05 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.11 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.16 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.21 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.34 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.38 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.40 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.44 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.44 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.47 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.47 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.48 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.48 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.56 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.61 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.62 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.67 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.74 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.75 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.76 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.84 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.89 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.95 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 3.02 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.02 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.04 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 3.08 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.18 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.21 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.23 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.24 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.24 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 3.26 | -3.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 3.29 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.29 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 3.33 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.42 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.64 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.76 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 3.88 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.99 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 4.14 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 4.20 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 39.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 47.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 58.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 38.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |