Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.14 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.45 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 168 | 1.53 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.89 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 1.91 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 168 | 2.01 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 168 | 2.04 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 168 | 2.05 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 168 | 2.08 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 168 | 2.14 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.17 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.20 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 168 | 2.23 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 168 | 2.29 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.31 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 168 | 2.33 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 168 | 2.34 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.37 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.37 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 168 | 2.37 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 168 | 2.38 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.40 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.41 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.42 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 168 | 2.45 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.50 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 168 | 2.50 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.51 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.61 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 168 | 2.68 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.72 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 168 | 2.73 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 168 | 2.77 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 168 | 2.90 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 168 | 2.93 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 168 | 3.01 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.02 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 168 | 3.10 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 168 | 3.12 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.13 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 168 | 3.18 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 168 | 3.24 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.26 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 168 | 3.37 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 168 | 3.38 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.51 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 168 | 3.70 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 168 | 3.82 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 168 | 4.26 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 168 | 4.51 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 84.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 60.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 62.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 56.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 57.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-22 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |