Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.33 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.73 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 1.91 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.91 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 1.98 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.31 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.32 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.35 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.40 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.44 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.45 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.49 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.50 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.52 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.57 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.58 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.60 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.63 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.68 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.69 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.70 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.72 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.74 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.82 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.86 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.90 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.93 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.94 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.07 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.09 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.12 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.15 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.16 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.19 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.22 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 3.23 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.24 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 3.28 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.32 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.39 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.52 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.65 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.68 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 3.70 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 3.74 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.77 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 3.78 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.86 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 4.35 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 4.85 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 57.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 65.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 42.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 56.0°F | +21.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 49.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |