Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.45 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.55 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.57 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 1.60 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.85 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.85 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.01 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.12 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.13 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.16 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.18 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.22 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.25 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.31 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.32 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.36 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.43 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.45 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.46 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.54 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.54 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.57 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.61 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.65 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.70 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.83 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.84 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.85 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.96 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.05 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 3.06 | -2.61 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.08 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.12 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.16 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.22 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.26 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 3.29 | -3.23 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.29 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 3.31 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 3.33 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.34 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.41 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.42 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 3.44 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.53 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 3.75 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.86 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.96 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.99 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 4.04 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 83.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 49.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 52.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 35.0°F | 37.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 60.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 34.0°F | 38.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 34.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-27 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |