Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.17 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.50 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.54 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.85 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.99 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.07 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.07 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.19 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.21 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.24 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.24 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.27 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.29 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.30 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.33 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.34 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.36 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.38 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.46 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.51 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.51 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.52 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.52 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.53 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.55 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.58 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.58 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.69 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.70 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.73 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.77 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.89 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.89 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.91 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.92 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 3.08 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.09 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.11 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 3.14 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.16 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 3.18 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.27 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.28 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.29 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.48 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.54 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.78 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.93 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 4.06 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 4.30 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 55.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |