Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.45 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.48 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.77 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.92 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 1.97 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 1.97 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.98 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.04 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.14 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.16 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.29 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.30 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.33 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.34 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.35 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.44 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.48 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.52 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.52 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.54 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.54 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.55 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.58 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.60 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.64 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.64 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.76 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.83 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.83 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.90 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.91 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.04 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.10 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.11 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 3.13 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.17 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.19 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 3.24 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 3.26 | -3.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 3.28 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.30 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.36 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.41 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.49 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.50 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 3.63 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 3.76 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.80 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.87 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.99 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 35.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 38.0°F | 35.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 53.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 40.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 25.0°F | 31.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 49.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 35.0°F | 50.0°F | -15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 33.0°F | 28.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 35.0°F | 32.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 38.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |