Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.36 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.72 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.92 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.00 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.02 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.20 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.36 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.39 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.44 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.44 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.45 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.51 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.57 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.62 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.65 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.66 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.70 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.72 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.73 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.74 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.75 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.80 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.84 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.87 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.91 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.95 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.95 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.96 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.00 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 3.06 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.06 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.11 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.22 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.24 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.27 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 3.34 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.35 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.43 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 3.44 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.53 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.53 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.65 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 3.69 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 3.70 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.71 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.78 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.91 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 4.12 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 4.53 | 3.55 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 64.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 74.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 33.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 58.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |