Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.31 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.53 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.78 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.79 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.01 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.12 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.23 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.25 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.28 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.28 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.29 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.32 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.34 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.35 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.36 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.38 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.42 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.44 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.49 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.51 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.52 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.55 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.56 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.59 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.61 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.73 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.74 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.76 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.80 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.80 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.83 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.84 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.84 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.89 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.92 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.93 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.95 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.97 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.03 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.09 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.39 | 3.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.40 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.56 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.60 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.74 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.95 | 3.54 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 4.01 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 4.60 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 4.96 | 3.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 5.52 | 3.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 68.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 69.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-18 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |