Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.35 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.40 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 1.75 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.86 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 1.86 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 1.89 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 1.92 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.92 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.94 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.07 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.12 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.12 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.21 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.22 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.23 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.23 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.30 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.32 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.40 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.40 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.44 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.49 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.53 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.55 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.59 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.62 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.63 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.64 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.64 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.65 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.67 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.74 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.78 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.87 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.97 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.01 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 3.02 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 3.05 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.13 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.13 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 3.17 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.21 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.22 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.27 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.27 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.68 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.84 | 3.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 3.97 | 3.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 4.11 | 3.36 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 4.37 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 104.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 74.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |