Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.12 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.48 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 1.58 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 1.65 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.68 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 1.87 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 1.91 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.95 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 1.99 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.06 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.09 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.12 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.15 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.19 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.20 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.24 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.25 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.34 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.34 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.41 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.43 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.44 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.44 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.50 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.56 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.56 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.57 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.58 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.59 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.66 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.81 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.86 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.92 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.93 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.95 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.96 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.14 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.14 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 3.15 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.15 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.18 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.21 | -2.83 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.24 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.29 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.34 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.68 | -2.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 3.70 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.98 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 4.04 | -3.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 105.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 74.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 86.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |