Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.09 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.39 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.46 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.75 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.84 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.01 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.06 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.08 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.09 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.14 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.15 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.19 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.20 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.22 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.24 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.28 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.34 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.36 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.37 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.37 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.37 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.44 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.46 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.49 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.50 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.54 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.61 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.63 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.70 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.74 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.79 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.81 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.82 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.91 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.92 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.95 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.02 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 3.18 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 3.25 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 3.38 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.38 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.39 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.48 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.50 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.53 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.56 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.66 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.90 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 4.05 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 4.15 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 44.0°F | 51.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 40.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 47.0°F | 56.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 43.0°F | 48.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 35.0°F | 33.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 62.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-23 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |