Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.47 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.49 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.54 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.63 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.77 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.77 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.85 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.99 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.01 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.07 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.15 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.20 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.24 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.26 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.30 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.35 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.36 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.40 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.46 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.46 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.52 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.56 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.59 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.62 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.70 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.70 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.71 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.72 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.72 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.76 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.81 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.92 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.97 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.97 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.04 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.13 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 3.14 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 3.21 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.26 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.27 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 3.33 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 3.35 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.44 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 3.51 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.51 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.52 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.86 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 4.04 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 4.15 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 4.16 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 45.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-29 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |