Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.25 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.78 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.92 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.09 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.16 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.29 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.30 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.37 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.47 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.47 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.49 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.52 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.52 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.53 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.61 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.62 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.66 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.67 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.70 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.70 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.71 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.79 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.80 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.84 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.85 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.88 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.88 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.93 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.95 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.95 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.96 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.98 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.03 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 3.08 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.09 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.10 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 3.11 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.17 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.31 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 3.36 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.50 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 3.61 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.74 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 3.87 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.88 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.98 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 4.42 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 4.45 | 4.23 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 4.73 | 3.69 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 5.60 | 4.28 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 66.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |