Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.22 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.60 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.97 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.03 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.12 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.26 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.35 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.44 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.49 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.50 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.51 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.51 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.55 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.60 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.66 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.67 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.68 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.72 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.75 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.77 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.77 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.77 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.91 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.92 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.95 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.97 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.97 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.98 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.99 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.99 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 3.02 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.04 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 3.08 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.10 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 3.13 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 3.14 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 3.15 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.16 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.26 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.49 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 3.52 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 3.69 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.91 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 4.05 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 4.06 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 4.08 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 4.65 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 4.76 | 4.57 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 4.91 | 3.91 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 5.84 | 4.47 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 62.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |