Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
19983
959232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
9500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-30 21:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 190 1.23 -0.59 48.0
Providence RI 190 1.61 -0.23 48.0
Richmond VA 190 1.68 -0.25 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 190 1.69 1.27 48.0
Jackson MS 190 1.72 0.71 48.0
Little Rock AR 190 1.89 -0.14 48.0
Trenton NJ 190 1.91 -0.04 48.0
Boston MA 190 1.98 1.29 48.0
Carson City NV 190 2.04 0.80 48.0
Charleston WV 190 2.05 0.59 48.0
Hartford CT 190 2.09 -0.52 48.0
Augusta ME 190 2.11 -1.26 48.0
Atlanta GA 190 2.18 0.60 48.0
Lansing MI 190 2.21 0.97 48.0
Raleigh NC 190 2.23 1.56 48.0
Columbus OH 190 2.24 1.61 48.0
Helena MT 190 2.25 0.42 48.0
Annapolis MD 190 2.28 0.83 48.0
Jefferson City MO 190 2.30 0.39 48.0
Harrisburg PA 190 2.32 -0.37 48.0
Austin TX 190 2.36 2.25 48.0
Sacramento CA 190 2.37 2.03 48.0
Lincoln NE 190 2.37 -0.01 48.0
Dover DE 190 2.42 0.07 48.0
Albany NY 190 2.44 0.60 48.0
Concord NH 190 2.45 -0.15 48.0
Des Moines IA 190 2.51 -0.18 48.0
Montgomery AL 190 2.53 0.54 48.0
Tallahassee FL 190 2.53 0.03 48.0
Salem OR 190 2.56 2.09 48.0
Saint Paul MN 190 2.58 1.41 48.0
Nashville TN 190 2.58 -0.03 48.0
Springfield IL 190 2.64 2.18 48.0
Olympia WA 190 2.66 -0.76 48.0
Juneau AK 190 2.67 0.94 48.0
Indianapolis IN 190 2.67 1.48 48.0
Phoenix AZ 190 2.85 -0.77 48.0
Santa Fe NM 190 2.90 -0.68 48.0
Montpelier VT 190 2.96 1.99 48.0
Columbia SC 190 3.03 -1.19 48.0
Boise ID 190 3.04 2.34 48.0
Topeka KS 190 3.08 0.79 48.0
Madison WI 190 3.10 1.37 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 190 3.26 0.23 48.0
Cheyenne WY 190 3.46 0.88 48.0
Denver CO 190 3.59 2.12 48.0
Pierre SD 190 3.60 2.31 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 190 3.67 3.21 48.0
Frankfort KY 190 3.76 3.47 48.0
Bismarck ND 190 3.94 2.67 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Montgomery AL 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 13:00 AKDT Juneau AK 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 MST Phoenix AZ 111.0°F 110.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Little Rock AR 92.0°F 95.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 PDT Sacramento CA 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 MDT Denver CO 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Hartford CT 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 89.0°F 96.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 11:00 HST Honolulu HI 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 MDT Boise ID 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Springfield IL 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Des Moines IA 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Topeka KS 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Frankfort KY 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 94.0°F 95.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Annapolis MD 85.0°F 79.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Lansing MI 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Jackson MS 92.0°F 92.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 90.0°F 85.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 MDT Helena MT 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Lincoln NE 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 PDT Carson City NV 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Concord NH 70.0°F 78.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Trenton NJ 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 15:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 91.0°F 95.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Raleigh NC 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Bismarck ND 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Columbus OH 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 16:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 101.0°F 102.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 14:00 PDT Salem OR 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Providence RI 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-30 17:00 EDT Columbia SC 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0