Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
67683
3248832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.60°
9200 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-08 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 184 1.15 0.49 48.0
Indianapolis IN 184 1.20 -0.58 48.0
Sacramento CA 184 1.49 0.11 48.0
Jefferson City MO 184 1.52 0.62 48.0
Honolulu HI 184 1.80 -1.32 48.0
Nashville TN 184 1.85 0.96 48.0
Salem OR 184 1.87 0.95 48.0
Raleigh NC 184 1.88 0.22 48.0
Columbus OH 184 1.91 0.39 48.0
Austin TX 184 2.10 -0.28 48.0
Augusta ME 184 2.11 -0.57 48.0
Columbia SC 184 2.14 0.11 48.0
Albany NY 184 2.17 -0.11 48.0
Jackson MS 184 2.18 1.36 48.0
Des Moines IA 184 2.21 0.97 48.0
Topeka KS 184 2.35 1.59 48.0
Lansing MI 184 2.38 1.29 48.0
Charleston WV 184 2.42 2.10 48.0
Saint Paul MN 184 2.47 0.45 48.0
Cheyenne WY 184 2.50 -1.09 48.0
Atlanta GA 184 2.54 1.30 48.0
Madison WI 184 2.54 1.89 48.0
Annapolis MD 184 2.55 0.90 48.0
Lincoln NE 184 2.63 2.21 48.0
Boston MA 184 2.65 0.02 48.0
Springfield IL 184 2.69 2.51 48.0
Montpelier VT 184 2.70 -0.09 48.0
Dover DE 184 2.73 -0.12 48.0
Frankfort KY 184 2.73 1.75 48.0
Trenton NJ 184 2.74 -0.35 48.0
Harrisburg PA 184 2.74 0.88 48.0
Hartford CT 184 2.76 -0.20 48.0
Concord NH 184 2.77 -0.95 48.0
Richmond VA 184 2.83 1.33 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 184 2.86 1.72 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 184 2.87 1.87 48.0
Providence RI 184 2.97 -1.28 48.0
Olympia WA 184 2.99 -0.08 48.0
Helena MT 184 3.10 -0.85 48.0
Juneau AK 184 3.14 -0.23 48.0
Denver CO 184 3.14 -0.21 48.0
Bismarck ND 184 3.14 1.08 48.0
Phoenix AZ 184 3.17 -2.70 48.0
Carson City NV 184 3.21 -2.38 48.0
Tallahassee FL 184 3.24 -1.99 48.0
Montgomery AL 184 3.33 0.16 48.0
Santa Fe NM 184 3.48 -1.43 48.0
Boise ID 184 3.71 1.18 48.0
Pierre SD 184 4.23 2.15 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 184 4.29 -3.56 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 MDT Denver CO 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Dover DE 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 MDT Boise ID 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Boston MA 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 MDT Helena MT 52.0°F 55.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 55.0°F 50.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Concord NH 72.0°F 67.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 72.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Albany NY 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 08:00 PDT Salem OR 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Providence RI 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0