Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.38 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.42 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.49 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.69 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.82 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 1.98 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.00 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.06 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.10 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.17 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.19 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.19 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.22 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.30 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.31 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.34 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.34 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.36 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.38 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.38 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.44 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.44 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.45 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.48 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.48 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.62 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.63 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.70 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.75 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.76 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.77 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.80 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.87 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.00 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.01 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 3.01 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 3.06 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 3.08 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.14 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 3.22 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.27 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.30 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.48 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.56 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.56 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.61 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.86 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.99 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 4.03 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 4.04 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 36.0°F | 26.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 30.0°F | 28.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 35.0°F | 41.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |