Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.45 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.46 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.76 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.87 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 1.95 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 1.98 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.00 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.07 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.19 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.21 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.22 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.25 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.31 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.38 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.39 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.42 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.46 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.50 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.52 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.55 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.55 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.57 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.57 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.58 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.61 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.66 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.79 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.81 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.87 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.88 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.91 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 3.02 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.03 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.05 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.11 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.12 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 3.16 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 3.22 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.22 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 3.27 | -3.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.38 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.45 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.49 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.53 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.55 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.59 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 3.62 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.84 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.88 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.90 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 31.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 44.0°F | 37.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 39.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 30.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 34.0°F | 31.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-25 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-26 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |