Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.43 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.50 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.79 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.88 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.02 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.02 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.04 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.07 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.11 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.11 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.18 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.19 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.21 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.22 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.22 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.27 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.31 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.32 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.32 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.36 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.37 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.40 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.45 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.46 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.47 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.49 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.49 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.53 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.55 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.55 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.65 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.71 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.73 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.79 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.80 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.82 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.85 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.94 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.95 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.96 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.15 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.21 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.27 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.52 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.74 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.83 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 4.01 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 4.29 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 4.36 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 4.38 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 51.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-20 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |