Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence RI | 179 | 1.49 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.52 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 1.62 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 1.74 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.88 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.89 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 1.94 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 1.95 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 1.96 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.96 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.01 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.06 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.06 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.10 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.18 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.21 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.23 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.28 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.34 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.35 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.39 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.46 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.50 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.53 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.55 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.56 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.63 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.75 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.77 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.78 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.80 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.82 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.83 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.90 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 2.96 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.96 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 3.07 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 3.07 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 3.08 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 3.08 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.22 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.24 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 3.31 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 3.35 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.47 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.49 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.50 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.56 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.83 | 3.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 4.37 | 3.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 82.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 73.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-27 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |