Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.57 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.64 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 1.76 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.86 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.86 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 1.87 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 1.94 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.98 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.03 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.04 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.10 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.14 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.21 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.22 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.23 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.23 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.25 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.27 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.31 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.33 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.34 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.35 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.38 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.44 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.46 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.58 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.58 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.65 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.67 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.70 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.78 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.85 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.87 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.89 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.90 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.94 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.98 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.05 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.07 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.14 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 3.15 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.24 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.30 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 3.31 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 3.32 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 3.36 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.44 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.49 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.55 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.65 | -2.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 67.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 106.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 85.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 76.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 74.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 77.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |