Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Day comparisons
53
Last 14 days
High MAE
19.34°
Earliest forecast max vs actual
Low MAE
4.75°
Earliest forecast min vs actual

Daily forecast vs actual

Actual high/low are derived from hourly observations on the location's local calendar day. Forecast values are from the earliest daily forecast we stored for that date.

Date City Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 Montgomery AL 86.0°F 74.0°F +12.0° 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 Little Rock AR 91.0°F 77.0°F +14.0° 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 Phoenix AZ 108.0°F 81.0°F +27.0° 89.0°F 81.0°F +8.0°
2026-07-14 Sacramento CA 100.0°F 76.0°F +24.0° 66.0°F 76.0°F -10.0°
2026-07-14 Denver CO 97.0°F 78.0°F +19.0° 66.0°F 75.0°F -9.0°
2026-07-14 Hartford CT 96.0°F 71.0°F +25.0° 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 Dover DE 91.0°F 68.0°F +23.0° 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 75.0°F +13.0° 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 Atlanta GA 81.0°F 75.0°F +6.0° 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 Des Moines IA 93.0°F 74.0°F +19.0° 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 Boise ID 92.0°F 84.0°F +8.0° 65.0°F 82.0°F -17.0°
2026-07-14 Springfield IL 91.0°F 70.0°F +21.0° 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 Indianapolis IN 93.0°F 74.0°F +19.0° 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 Topeka KS 91.0°F 70.0°F +21.0° 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 Frankfort KY 91.0°F 73.0°F +18.0° 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 75.0°F +11.0° 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 Boston MA 97.0°F 73.0°F +24.0° 79.0°F 72.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 Annapolis MD 88.0°F 72.0°F +16.0° 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 Augusta ME 93.0°F 68.0°F +25.0° 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0°
2026-07-14 Lansing MI 100.0°F 73.0°F +27.0° 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0°
2026-07-14 Saint Paul MN 97.0°F 78.0°F +19.0° 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 Jefferson City MO 92.0°F 72.0°F +20.0° 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 Jackson MS 87.0°F 74.0°F +13.0° 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 Helena MT 91.0°F 78.0°F +13.0° 63.0°F 76.0°F -13.0°
2026-07-14 Raleigh NC 88.0°F 72.0°F +16.0° 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0°
2026-07-14 Bismarck ND 99.0°F 80.0°F +19.0° 71.0°F 79.0°F -8.0°
2026-07-14 Lincoln NE 93.0°F 73.0°F +20.0° 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 Concord NH 97.0°F 72.0°F +25.0° 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 Trenton NJ 95.0°F 70.0°F +25.0° 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 Santa Fe NM 84.0°F 73.0°F +11.0° 60.0°F 71.0°F -11.0°
2026-07-14 Carson City NV 86.0°F 64.0°F +22.0° 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 Albany NY 99.0°F 69.0°F +30.0° 76.0°F 69.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 Columbus OH 93.0°F 74.0°F +19.0° 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 74.0°F +15.0° 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 Salem OR 91.0°F 68.0°F +23.0° 57.0°F 68.0°F -11.0°
2026-07-14 Harrisburg PA 95.0°F 70.0°F +25.0° 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 Providence RI 94.0°F 70.0°F +24.0° 78.0°F 70.0°F +8.0°
2026-07-14 Columbia SC 85.0°F 73.0°F +12.0° 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 Pierre SD 102.0°F 78.0°F +24.0° 73.0°F 78.0°F -5.0°
2026-07-14 Nashville TN 88.0°F 73.0°F +15.0° 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 Austin TX 88.0°F 76.0°F +12.0° 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 Salt Lake City UT 101.0°F 83.0°F +18.0° 72.0°F 83.0°F -11.0°
2026-07-14 Richmond VA 90.0°F 66.0°F +24.0° 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 Montpelier VT 95.0°F 64.0°F +31.0° 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 Olympia WA 82.0°F 58.0°F +24.0° 55.0°F 58.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 Madison WI 96.0°F 68.0°F +28.0° 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 Charleston WV 90.0°F 66.0°F +24.0° 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 Cheyenne WY 91.0°F 69.0°F +22.0° 58.0°F 69.0°F -11.0°
2026-07-13 Juneau AK 62.0°F 53.0°F +9.0° 51.0°F 52.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-13 Phoenix AZ 106.0°F 80.0°F +26.0° 87.0°F 80.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-13 Sacramento CA 96.0°F 79.0°F +17.0° 66.0°F 79.0°F -13.0°
2026-07-13 Honolulu HI 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0° 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-13 Carson City NV 87.0°F 66.0°F +21.0° 62.0°F 66.0°F -4.0°