Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Washington · America/Los_Angeles · 47.04, -122.90

Latest observation
69.0°F
2026-08-28 16:00 PDT · temp 69.0°F · feels 69.0°F · RH 51% · dew 50.0°F · wind —
Hour samples (7d)
192
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
3.12°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-08-28 16:00 PDT changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Los_Angeles). Actual: 69.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

65°67°69°71°73° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 69.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-08-26 16:00 PDT 48.0 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 17:00 PDT 47.0 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 18:00 PDT 46.0 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 19:00 PDT 45.0 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 20:00 PDT 44.0 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 21:00 PDT 43.0 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 22:00 PDT 42.0 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 23:00 PDT 41.0 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 00:00 PDT 40.0 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 01:00 PDT 39.0 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 02:00 PDT 38.0 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 03:00 PDT 37.0 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 04:00 PDT 36.0 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 05:00 PDT 35.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 06:00 PDT 34.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 07:00 PDT 33.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 08:00 PDT 32.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 09:00 PDT 31.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 10:00 PDT 30.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 11:00 PDT 29.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 12:00 PDT 28.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 13:00 PDT 27.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 14:00 PDT 26.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 15:00 PDT 25.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 16:00 PDT 24.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 17:00 PDT 23.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 18:00 PDT 22.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 19:00 PDT 21.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 20:00 PDT 20.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 21:00 PDT 19.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 22:00 PDT 18.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-27 23:00 PDT 17.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-28 00:00 PDT 16.0 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-28 01:00 PDT 15.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 02:00 PDT 14.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 03:00 PDT 13.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 04:00 PDT 12.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 05:00 PDT 11.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 06:00 PDT 10.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 07:00 PDT 9.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 08:00 PDT 8.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 09:00 PDT 7.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 10:00 PDT 6.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 11:00 PDT 5.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 12:00 PDT 4.0 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-28 13:00 PDT 3.0 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0°
2026-08-28 14:00 PDT 2.0 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0°
2026-08-28 15:00 PDT 1.0 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-28 16:00 PDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 PDT 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 PDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 13:00 PDT 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 12:00 PDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 PDT 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 10:00 PDT 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 PDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 08:00 PDT 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 07:00 PDT 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 PDT 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 PDT 57.0°F 51.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 04:00 PDT 58.0°F 53.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 PDT 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 PDT 58.0°F 53.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 01:00 PDT 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 PDT 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 PDT 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 PDT 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 21:00 PDT 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 20:00 PDT 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 19:00 PDT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 18:00 PDT 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 17:00 PDT 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 16:00 PDT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 15:00 PDT 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 14:00 PDT 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 13:00 PDT 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 12:00 PDT 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 11:00 PDT 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 10:00 PDT 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 09:00 PDT 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 08:00 PDT 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 07:00 PDT 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 06:00 PDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 05:00 PDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 04:00 PDT 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 PDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 PDT 58.0°F 61.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 01:00 PDT 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 00:00 PDT 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 23:00 PDT 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 22:00 PDT 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 21:00 PDT 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 20:00 PDT 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 19:00 PDT 68.0°F 75.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 18:00 PDT 71.0°F 79.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 17:00 PDT 73.0°F 79.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 PDT 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 PDT 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 14:00 PDT 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 13:00 PDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 12:00 PDT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 11:00 PDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 10:00 PDT 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 09:00 PDT 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 08:00 PDT 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 PDT 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 PDT 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 05:00 PDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 04:00 PDT 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 03:00 PDT 58.0°F 53.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 02:00 PDT 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 01:00 PDT 60.0°F 54.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 00:00 PDT 61.0°F 56.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 23:00 PDT 62.0°F 58.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 22:00 PDT 64.0°F 60.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 PDT 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 PDT 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 19:00 PDT 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 18:00 PDT 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 17:00 PDT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 16:00 PDT 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 15:00 PDT 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 14:00 PDT 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 13:00 PDT 75.0°F 80.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 12:00 PDT 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 11:00 PDT 69.0°F 75.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 10:00 PDT 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 09:00 PDT 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 08:00 PDT 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 07:00 PDT 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 06:00 PDT 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 05:00 PDT 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 04:00 PDT 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 03:00 PDT 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 02:00 PDT 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 PDT 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 PDT 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 23:00 PDT 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 22:00 PDT 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 PDT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 PDT 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 19:00 PDT 74.0°F 81.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 18:00 PDT 75.0°F 82.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 17:00 PDT 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 16:00 PDT 76.0°F 82.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 15:00 PDT 75.0°F 80.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 14:00 PDT 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 13:00 PDT 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 PDT 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 PDT 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 PDT 63.0°F 67.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 PDT 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 08:00 PDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 07:00 PDT 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 PDT 57.0°F 53.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 PDT 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 PDT 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 PDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 PDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 PDT 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 00:00 PDT 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 23:00 PDT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 22:00 PDT 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 21:00 PDT 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 PDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 PDT 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 18:00 PDT 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 17:00 PDT 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 16:00 PDT 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 15:00 PDT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 PDT 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 PDT 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 12:00 PDT 64.0°F 70.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 11:00 PDT 62.0°F 70.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 10:00 PDT 61.0°F 68.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 09:00 PDT 59.0°F 64.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 PDT 58.0°F 62.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 PDT 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 PDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 PDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 04:00 PDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 03:00 PDT 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 02:00 PDT 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 01:00 PDT 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 00:00 PDT 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 23:00 PDT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 22:00 PDT 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 21:00 PDT 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 20:00 PDT 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 19:00 PDT 65.0°F 70.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 18:00 PDT 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 17:00 PDT 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 PDT 67.0°F 75.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 PDT 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 PDT 67.0°F 73.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 PDT 65.0°F 72.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 12:00 PDT 62.0°F 68.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 11:00 PDT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 10:00 PDT 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 09:00 PDT 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 08:00 PDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 07:00 PDT 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 06:00 PDT 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 05:00 PDT 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 04:00 PDT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 03:00 PDT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 02:00 PDT 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 01:00 PDT 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 00:00 PDT 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 23:00 PDT 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 22:00 PDT 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 21:00 PDT 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 PDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 PDT 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 18:00 PDT 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 17:00 PDT 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 16:00 PDT 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 15:00 PDT 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 14:00 PDT 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 13:00 PDT 72.0°F 79.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 12:00 PDT 69.0°F 75.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 11:00 PDT 66.0°F 74.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 10:00 PDT 64.0°F 71.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 09:00 PDT 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 08:00 PDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 07:00 PDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 06:00 PDT 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 05:00 PDT 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 04:00 PDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 03:00 PDT 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 02:00 PDT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 01:00 PDT 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 00:00 PDT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 23:00 PDT 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 22:00 PDT 67.0°F 75.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 21:00 PDT 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 20:00 PDT 72.0°F 83.0°F -11.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 19:00 PDT 74.0°F 87.0°F -13.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 PDT 76.0°F 88.0°F -12.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 PDT 78.0°F 87.0°F -9.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-08-27 60.0°F 74.0°F -14.0° 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-26 61.0°F 79.0°F -18.0° 61.0°F 53.0°F +8.0°
2026-08-25 62.0°F 81.0°F -19.0° 62.0°F 54.0°F +8.0°
2026-08-24 60.0°F 82.0°F -22.0° 60.0°F 53.0°F +7.0°
2026-08-23 61.0°F 75.0°F -14.0° 61.0°F 55.0°F +6.0°
2026-08-22 62.0°F 75.0°F -13.0° 62.0°F 58.0°F +4.0°
2026-08-21 63.0°F 80.0°F -17.0° 63.0°F 54.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-20 61.0°F 88.0°F -27.0° 61.0°F 52.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-19 60.0°F 85.0°F -25.0° 60.0°F 49.0°F +11.0°
2026-08-18 61.0°F 80.0°F -19.0° 61.0°F 54.0°F +7.0°
2026-08-17 61.0°F 81.0°F -20.0° 61.0°F 53.0°F +8.0°
2026-08-16 59.0°F 76.0°F -17.0° 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-15 60.0°F 73.0°F -13.0° 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0°
2026-08-14 61.0°F 77.0°F -16.0° 61.0°F 56.0°F +5.0°