Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Idaho · America/Boise · 43.62, -116.20

Latest observation
68.0°F
2026-08-28 07:00 MDT · temp 68.0°F · feels 68.0°F · RH 47% · dew 47.0°F · wind 5.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
182
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
2.88°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-08-28 07:00 MDT changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Boise). Actual: 68.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

63°65°67°68°70° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 68.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-4°-2°+0°+2°+4° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-08-26 07:00 MDT 48.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-26 08:00 MDT 47.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-26 09:00 MDT 46.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-26 10:00 MDT 45.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-26 11:00 MDT 44.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-26 12:00 MDT 43.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-26 13:00 MDT 42.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 14:00 MDT 41.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 15:00 MDT 40.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 16:00 MDT 39.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 17:00 MDT 38.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 18:00 MDT 37.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 19:00 MDT 36.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 20:00 MDT 35.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 21:00 MDT 34.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 22:00 MDT 33.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 23:00 MDT 32.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 00:00 MDT 31.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 01:00 MDT 30.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 02:00 MDT 29.0 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 03:00 MDT 28.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-27 04:00 MDT 27.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-27 05:00 MDT 26.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-27 06:00 MDT 25.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-27 07:00 MDT 24.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-27 08:00 MDT 23.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-27 09:00 MDT 22.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-27 10:00 MDT 21.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-27 11:00 MDT 20.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-27 12:00 MDT 19.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-27 13:00 MDT 18.0 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0°
2026-08-27 14:00 MDT 17.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 15:00 MDT 16.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 16:00 MDT 15.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 17:00 MDT 14.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 18:00 MDT 13.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 19:00 MDT 12.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 20:00 MDT 11.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 21:00 MDT 10.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 22:00 MDT 9.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 23:00 MDT 8.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 00:00 MDT 7.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 01:00 MDT 6.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 02:00 MDT 5.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 03:00 MDT 4.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 04:00 MDT 3.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 05:00 MDT 2.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 06:00 MDT 1.0 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-28 07:00 MDT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 MDT 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 MDT 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 04:00 MDT 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 MDT 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 MDT 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 01:00 MDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 MDT 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 MDT 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 MDT 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 21:00 MDT 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 20:00 MDT 88.0°F 91.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 19:00 MDT 90.0°F 94.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 18:00 MDT 93.0°F 96.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 17:00 MDT 92.0°F 96.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 16:00 MDT 92.0°F 95.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 15:00 MDT 92.0°F 95.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 14:00 MDT 89.0°F 94.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 13:00 MDT 86.0°F 91.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 12:00 MDT 84.0°F 92.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 11:00 MDT 80.0°F 90.0°F -10.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 10:00 MDT 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 09:00 MDT 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 08:00 MDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 07:00 MDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 06:00 MDT 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 05:00 MDT 70.0°F 76.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 04:00 MDT 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 MDT 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 MDT 76.0°F 82.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 01:00 MDT 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 00:00 MDT 80.0°F 85.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 23:00 MDT 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 22:00 MDT 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 21:00 MDT 88.0°F 92.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 20:00 MDT 90.0°F 96.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 19:00 MDT 93.0°F 98.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 18:00 MDT 96.0°F 99.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 17:00 MDT 95.0°F 99.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 MDT 95.0°F 98.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 MDT 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 14:00 MDT 92.0°F 96.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 13:00 MDT 89.0°F 94.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 12:00 MDT 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 11:00 MDT 81.0°F 86.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 10:00 MDT 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 09:00 MDT 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 08:00 MDT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 MDT 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 MDT 67.0°F 76.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 05:00 MDT 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 04:00 MDT 71.0°F 77.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 03:00 MDT 73.0°F 78.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 02:00 MDT 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 01:00 MDT 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 00:00 MDT 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 23:00 MDT 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 22:00 MDT 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 MDT 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 MDT 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 19:00 MDT 92.0°F 96.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 18:00 MDT 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 17:00 MDT 94.0°F 97.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 16:00 MDT 93.0°F 97.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 15:00 MDT 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 14:00 MDT 90.0°F 94.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 13:00 MDT 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 12:00 MDT 86.0°F 91.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 11:00 MDT 81.0°F 88.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 10:00 MDT 76.0°F 82.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 09:00 MDT 71.0°F 76.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 08:00 MDT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 07:00 MDT 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 06:00 MDT 65.0°F 75.0°F -10.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 05:00 MDT 67.0°F 75.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 04:00 MDT 69.0°F 77.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 03:00 MDT 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 02:00 MDT 73.0°F 79.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 MDT 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 MDT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 23:00 MDT 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 22:00 MDT 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 MDT 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 MDT 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 19:00 MDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 18:00 MDT 93.0°F 88.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 17:00 MDT 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 16:00 MDT 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 15:00 MDT 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 14:00 MDT 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 13:00 MDT 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 MDT 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 MDT 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 MDT 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 MDT 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 08:00 MDT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 07:00 MDT 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 MDT 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 MDT 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 MDT 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 MDT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 MDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 MDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 00:00 MDT 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 23:00 MDT 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 22:00 MDT 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 21:00 MDT 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 MDT 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 MDT 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 18:00 MDT 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 17:00 MDT 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 16:00 MDT 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 15:00 MDT 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 MDT 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 MDT 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 12:00 MDT 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 11:00 MDT 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 10:00 MDT 71.0°F 76.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 09:00 MDT 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 MDT 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 MDT 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 MDT 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 MDT 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 04:00 MDT 70.0°F 76.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 03:00 MDT 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 02:00 MDT 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 01:00 MDT 77.0°F 83.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 00:00 MDT 79.0°F 83.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 23:00 MDT 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 22:00 MDT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 21:00 MDT 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 20:00 MDT 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 19:00 MDT 92.0°F 95.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 18:00 MDT 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 17:00 MDT 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 MDT 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 MDT 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 MDT 93.0°F 96.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 MDT 89.0°F 94.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 12:00 MDT 87.0°F 93.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 11:00 MDT 84.0°F 91.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 10:00 MDT 81.0°F 86.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 09:00 MDT 78.0°F 83.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 08:00 MDT 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 07:00 MDT 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 06:00 MDT 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 05:00 MDT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 04:00 MDT 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 03:00 MDT 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 02:00 MDT 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 01:00 MDT 83.0°F 88.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 00:00 MDT 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 23:00 MDT 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 22:00 MDT 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 21:00 MDT 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 MDT 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 MDT 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 18:00 MDT 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 17:00 MDT 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 16:00 MDT 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 15:00 MDT 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 14:00 MDT 94.0°F 95.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 13:00 MDT 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 12:00 MDT 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 11:00 MDT 83.0°F 88.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 10:00 MDT 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 09:00 MDT 71.0°F 79.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 08:00 MDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 07:00 MDT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 06:00 MDT 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 05:00 MDT 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 04:00 MDT 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 03:00 MDT 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 02:00 MDT 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 01:00 MDT 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 00:00 MDT 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 23:00 MDT 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 22:00 MDT 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 21:00 MDT 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 20:00 MDT 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 19:00 MDT 96.0°F 96.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 MDT 99.0°F 96.0°F +3.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-08-27 80.0°F 96.0°F -16.0° 80.0°F 71.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-26 80.0°F 99.0°F -19.0° 80.0°F 72.0°F +8.0°
2026-08-25 78.0°F 97.0°F -19.0° 78.0°F 71.0°F +7.0°
2026-08-24 73.0°F 90.0°F -17.0° 73.0°F 61.0°F +12.0°
2026-08-23 79.0°F 89.0°F -10.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-08-22 84.0°F 96.0°F -12.0° 84.0°F 77.0°F +7.0°
2026-08-21 81.0°F 100.0°F -19.0° 81.0°F 70.0°F +11.0°
2026-08-20 78.0°F 99.0°F -21.0° 78.0°F 66.0°F +12.0°
2026-08-19 76.0°F 97.0°F -21.0° 76.0°F 63.0°F +13.0°
2026-08-18 77.0°F 95.0°F -18.0° 77.0°F 66.0°F +11.0°
2026-08-17 76.0°F 92.0°F -16.0° 76.0°F 70.0°F +6.0°
2026-08-16 73.0°F 91.0°F -18.0° 73.0°F 66.0°F +7.0°
2026-08-15 73.0°F 90.0°F -17.0° 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-14 74.0°F 89.0°F -15.0° 74.0°F 65.0°F +9.0°