Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.73 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 1.76 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 1.77 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 1.78 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.90 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.99 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.03 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.03 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.03 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.04 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.06 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.07 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.07 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.13 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.17 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.20 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.22 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.22 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.24 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.26 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 2.28 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.28 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.29 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.29 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.30 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.31 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.35 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.35 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.43 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 2.44 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.46 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.51 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.64 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.67 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 2.67 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.76 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.85 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.86 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.86 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.87 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.87 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.94 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.96 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.03 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 3.07 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.12 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.21 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 3.22 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.65 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 3.83 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 44.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 97.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |