Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
| Augusta ME | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 1 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 1.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 1 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 1.0 |
| Hartford CT | 1 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 1.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 1 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 1.0 |
| Boise ID | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.0 |
| Boston MA | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.0 |
| Lansing MI | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.0 |
| Jackson MS | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.0 |
| Albany NY | 1 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 1.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 1 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 1.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.0 |
| Dover DE | 1 | 2.00 | -2.00 | 1.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 1 | 2.00 | -2.00 | 1.0 |
| Springfield IL | 1 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.0 |
| Topeka KS | 1 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.0 |
| Helena MT | 1 | 2.00 | -2.00 | 1.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 1 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 1 | 2.00 | -2.00 | 1.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 1 | 2.00 | -2.00 | 1.0 |
| Concord NH | 1 | 3.00 | -3.00 | 1.0 |
| Juneau AK | 1 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.0 |
| Denver CO | 1 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 1.0 |
| Carson City NV | 1 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 1.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 1 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 1.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (UTC) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 81.0°F | +13.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 64.0°F | +9.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 1.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 1.0 |