Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Iowa · America/Chicago · 41.59, -93.63

Latest observation
65.0°F
2026-08-28 08:00 CDT · temp 65.0°F · feels 65.0°F · RH 87% · dew 61.0°F · wind 0.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
182
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
1.75°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Chicago). Actual: 65.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

61°63°65°66°68° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 65.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-08-26 08:00 CDT 48.0 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-26 09:00 CDT 47.0 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-26 10:00 CDT 46.0 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-26 11:00 CDT 45.0 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-26 12:00 CDT 44.0 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-26 13:00 CDT 43.0 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-26 14:00 CDT 42.0 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT 41.0 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-26 16:00 CDT 40.0 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-26 17:00 CDT 39.0 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-26 18:00 CDT 38.0 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-26 19:00 CDT 37.0 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-26 20:00 CDT 36.0 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-26 21:00 CDT 35.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 22:00 CDT 34.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 23:00 CDT 33.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 00:00 CDT 32.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 01:00 CDT 31.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT 30.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 03:00 CDT 29.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 04:00 CDT 28.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 05:00 CDT 27.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 06:00 CDT 26.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 07:00 CDT 25.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 08:00 CDT 24.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 09:00 CDT 23.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 10:00 CDT 22.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 11:00 CDT 21.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 12:00 CDT 20.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 13:00 CDT 19.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 14:00 CDT 18.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 15:00 CDT 17.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 16:00 CDT 16.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 17:00 CDT 15.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 18:00 CDT 14.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 19:00 CDT 13.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 20:00 CDT 12.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 21:00 CDT 11.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 22:00 CDT 10.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 23:00 CDT 9.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 00:00 CDT 8.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 01:00 CDT 7.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT 6.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 03:00 CDT 5.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 04:00 CDT 4.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT 3.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 06:00 CDT 2.0 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 07:00 CDT 1.0 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-28 08:00 CDT 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 07:00 CDT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 CDT 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 04:00 CDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 CDT 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 01:00 CDT 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 CDT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 CDT 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 CDT 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 21:00 CDT 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 20:00 CDT 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 19:00 CDT 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 18:00 CDT 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 17:00 CDT 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 16:00 CDT 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 15:00 CDT 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 14:00 CDT 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 13:00 CDT 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 12:00 CDT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 11:00 CDT 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 10:00 CDT 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 09:00 CDT 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 08:00 CDT 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 07:00 CDT 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 06:00 CDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 05:00 CDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 04:00 CDT 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 CDT 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 01:00 CDT 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 00:00 CDT 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 23:00 CDT 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 22:00 CDT 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 21:00 CDT 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 20:00 CDT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 19:00 CDT 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 18:00 CDT 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 17:00 CDT 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 CDT 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 14:00 CDT 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 13:00 CDT 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 12:00 CDT 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 11:00 CDT 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 10:00 CDT 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 09:00 CDT 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 08:00 CDT 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 CDT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 05:00 CDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 04:00 CDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 03:00 CDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 02:00 CDT 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 01:00 CDT 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 00:00 CDT 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 23:00 CDT 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 22:00 CDT 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 CDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 19:00 CDT 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 18:00 CDT 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 17:00 CDT 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 16:00 CDT 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 15:00 CDT 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 14:00 CDT 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 13:00 CDT 81.0°F 75.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 12:00 CDT 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 11:00 CDT 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 10:00 CDT 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 09:00 CDT 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 08:00 CDT 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 07:00 CDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 06:00 CDT 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 05:00 CDT 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 04:00 CDT 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 03:00 CDT 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 02:00 CDT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 CDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 23:00 CDT 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 22:00 CDT 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 CDT 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 19:00 CDT 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 18:00 CDT 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 17:00 CDT 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 16:00 CDT 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 15:00 CDT 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 14:00 CDT 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 13:00 CDT 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 CDT 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 CDT 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 08:00 CDT 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 07:00 CDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 CDT 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 CDT 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 CDT 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 00:00 CDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 23:00 CDT 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 22:00 CDT 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 21:00 CDT 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 CDT 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 18:00 CDT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 17:00 CDT 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 16:00 CDT 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 15:00 CDT 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 CDT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 12:00 CDT 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 11:00 CDT 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 10:00 CDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 09:00 CDT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 CDT 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 CDT 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 04:00 CDT 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 03:00 CDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 02:00 CDT 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 01:00 CDT 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 00:00 CDT 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 23:00 CDT 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 22:00 CDT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 21:00 CDT 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 20:00 CDT 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 19:00 CDT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 18:00 CDT 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 17:00 CDT 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 CDT 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 CDT 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 12:00 CDT 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 11:00 CDT 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 10:00 CDT 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 09:00 CDT 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 08:00 CDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 07:00 CDT 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 06:00 CDT 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 05:00 CDT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 04:00 CDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 03:00 CDT 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 02:00 CDT 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 01:00 CDT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 00:00 CDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 23:00 CDT 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 22:00 CDT 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 21:00 CDT 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 CDT 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 18:00 CDT 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 17:00 CDT 83.0°F 88.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 16:00 CDT 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 15:00 CDT 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 14:00 CDT 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 13:00 CDT 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 12:00 CDT 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 11:00 CDT 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 10:00 CDT 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 09:00 CDT 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 08:00 CDT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 07:00 CDT 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 06:00 CDT 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 05:00 CDT 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 04:00 CDT 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 03:00 CDT 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 02:00 CDT 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 01:00 CDT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 00:00 CDT 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 23:00 CDT 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 22:00 CDT 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 21:00 CDT 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 20:00 CDT 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 19:00 CDT 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-08-27 70.0°F 82.0°F -12.0° 70.0°F 62.0°F +8.0°
2026-08-26 73.0°F 83.0°F -10.0° 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0°
2026-08-25 69.0°F 81.0°F -12.0° 69.0°F 63.0°F +6.0°
2026-08-24 68.0°F 76.0°F -8.0° 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0°
2026-08-23 67.0°F 80.0°F -13.0° 67.0°F 60.0°F +7.0°
2026-08-22 71.0°F 83.0°F -12.0° 71.0°F 64.0°F +7.0°
2026-08-21 71.0°F 88.0°F -17.0° 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0°
2026-08-20 68.0°F 84.0°F -16.0° 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-19 70.0°F 80.0°F -10.0° 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-18 72.0°F 83.0°F -11.0° 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-17 70.0°F 82.0°F -12.0° 70.0°F 63.0°F +7.0°
2026-08-16 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 77.0°F 70.0°F +7.0°
2026-08-15 76.0°F 83.0°F -7.0° 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-14 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0°