Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Kentucky · America/New_York · 38.20, -84.87

Latest observation
69.0°F
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC · Clear
Hour samples (7d)
2
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
0.50°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 08:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC 70.0°F 70.0°F 0 Clear
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 70.0°F 70.0°F 0 Clear

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 91.0°F 73.0°F +18.0° 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0°