Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Connecticut · America/New_York · 41.77, -72.67

Latest observation
60.0°F
2026-10-12 11:00 EDT · temp 60.0°F · feels 60.0°F · RH 75% · dew 52.0°F · wind 5.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
184
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
2.71°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-10-12 11:00 EDT changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/New_York). Actual: 60.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

58°60°61°63°64° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 60.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-10-10 11:00 EDT 48.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 12:00 EDT 47.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 13:00 EDT 46.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 14:00 EDT 45.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 15:00 EDT 44.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 16:00 EDT 43.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 17:00 EDT 42.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 18:00 EDT 41.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 19:00 EDT 40.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 20:00 EDT 39.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 21:00 EDT 38.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 22:00 EDT 37.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 23:00 EDT 36.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 00:00 EDT 35.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 01:00 EDT 34.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 02:00 EDT 33.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 03:00 EDT 32.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 04:00 EDT 31.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 05:00 EDT 30.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 06:00 EDT 29.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 07:00 EDT 28.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 08:00 EDT 27.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 09:00 EDT 26.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 10:00 EDT 25.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 11:00 EDT 24.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 12:00 EDT 23.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 13:00 EDT 22.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 14:00 EDT 21.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 15:00 EDT 20.0 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 16:00 EDT 19.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-11 17:00 EDT 18.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-11 18:00 EDT 17.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-11 19:00 EDT 16.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-11 20:00 EDT 15.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-11 21:00 EDT 14.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-11 22:00 EDT 13.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-11 23:00 EDT 12.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-12 00:00 EDT 11.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-12 01:00 EDT 10.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-12 02:00 EDT 9.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-12 03:00 EDT 8.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-12 04:00 EDT 7.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-12 05:00 EDT 6.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-12 06:00 EDT 5.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-12 07:00 EDT 4.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-12 08:00 EDT 3.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-12 09:00 EDT 2.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-12 10:00 EDT 1.0 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-10-12 11:00 EDT 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 10:00 EDT 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 09:00 EDT 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 08:00 EDT 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 07:00 EDT 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 06:00 EDT 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 05:00 EDT 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 04:00 EDT 57.0°F 53.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 03:00 EDT 56.0°F 53.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 02:00 EDT 58.0°F 53.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 01:00 EDT 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 00:00 EDT 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 23:00 EDT 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 22:00 EDT 57.0°F 51.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 21:00 EDT 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 20:00 EDT 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 19:00 EDT 58.0°F 52.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 18:00 EDT 60.0°F 52.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 17:00 EDT 61.0°F 52.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 16:00 EDT 63.0°F 52.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 15:00 EDT 63.0°F 53.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 14:00 EDT 63.0°F 54.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 13:00 EDT 62.0°F 54.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 12:00 EDT 60.0°F 53.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 11:00 EDT 59.0°F 51.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 10:00 EDT 55.0°F 51.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 09:00 EDT 52.0°F 50.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 08:00 EDT 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 07:00 EDT 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 06:00 EDT 47.0°F 48.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 05:00 EDT 47.0°F 48.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 04:00 EDT 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 03:00 EDT 49.0°F 47.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 02:00 EDT 49.0°F 47.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 01:00 EDT 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 00:00 EDT 51.0°F 49.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 23:00 EDT 52.0°F 50.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 22:00 EDT 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 21:00 EDT 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 20:00 EDT 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 19:00 EDT 61.0°F 55.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 18:00 EDT 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 17:00 EDT 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 16:00 EDT 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 15:00 EDT 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 14:00 EDT 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 13:00 EDT 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 12:00 EDT 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 11:00 EDT 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 10:00 EDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 09:00 EDT 50.0°F 51.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 08:00 EDT 45.0°F 46.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 07:00 EDT 46.0°F 43.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 06:00 EDT 46.0°F 43.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 05:00 EDT 46.0°F 45.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 04:00 EDT 47.0°F 46.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 03:00 EDT 46.0°F 47.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 02:00 EDT 47.0°F 48.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 01:00 EDT 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 00:00 EDT 49.0°F 49.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 23:00 EDT 50.0°F 50.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 22:00 EDT 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 21:00 EDT 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 20:00 EDT 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 19:00 EDT 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 18:00 EDT 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 17:00 EDT 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 16:00 EDT 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 15:00 EDT 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 14:00 EDT 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 13:00 EDT 64.0°F 69.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 12:00 EDT 63.0°F 67.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 11:00 EDT 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 10:00 EDT 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 09:00 EDT 52.0°F 53.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 08:00 EDT 48.0°F 47.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 07:00 EDT 48.0°F 43.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 06:00 EDT 47.0°F 45.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 05:00 EDT 47.0°F 45.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 04:00 EDT 48.0°F 46.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 03:00 EDT 50.0°F 46.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 02:00 EDT 50.0°F 47.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 01:00 EDT 52.0°F 48.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 00:00 EDT 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 23:00 EDT 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 22:00 EDT 57.0°F 54.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 21:00 EDT 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 20:00 EDT 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 19:00 EDT 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 18:00 EDT 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 17:00 EDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 16:00 EDT 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 15:00 EDT 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 14:00 EDT 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 13:00 EDT 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 12:00 EDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 11:00 EDT 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 10:00 EDT 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 09:00 EDT 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 08:00 EDT 53.0°F 58.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 07:00 EDT 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 06:00 EDT 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 05:00 EDT 53.0°F 56.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 04:00 EDT 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 03:00 EDT 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 02:00 EDT 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 01:00 EDT 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 00:00 EDT 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 23:00 EDT 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 22:00 EDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 21:00 EDT 57.0°F 54.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 20:00 EDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 19:00 EDT 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 18:00 EDT 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 17:00 EDT 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 16:00 EDT 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 15:00 EDT 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 14:00 EDT 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 13:00 EDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 12:00 EDT 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 11:00 EDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 10:00 EDT 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 09:00 EDT 48.0°F 45.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 08:00 EDT 43.0°F 40.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 07:00 EDT 42.0°F 37.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 06:00 EDT 41.0°F 37.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 05:00 EDT 40.0°F 38.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 04:00 EDT 45.0°F 38.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 03:00 EDT 45.0°F 39.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 02:00 EDT 44.0°F 40.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 01:00 EDT 46.0°F 42.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 00:00 EDT 47.0°F 43.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 23:00 EDT 49.0°F 43.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 22:00 EDT 49.0°F 49.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 21:00 EDT 50.0°F 47.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 20:00 EDT 50.0°F 54.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 19:00 EDT 53.0°F 56.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 18:00 EDT 55.0°F 58.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 17:00 EDT 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 16:00 EDT 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 15:00 EDT 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 14:00 EDT 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 13:00 EDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 12:00 EDT 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 11:00 EDT 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 10:00 EDT 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 09:00 EDT 47.0°F 48.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 08:00 EDT 44.0°F 47.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 07:00 EDT 44.0°F 46.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 06:00 EDT 45.0°F 47.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 05:00 EDT 45.0°F 48.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 04:00 EDT 45.0°F 49.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 03:00 EDT 46.0°F 49.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 02:00 EDT 47.0°F 51.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 01:00 EDT 48.0°F 52.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 00:00 EDT 49.0°F 53.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 23:00 EDT 50.0°F 54.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 22:00 EDT 51.0°F 55.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 21:00 EDT 53.0°F 56.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 20:00 EDT 54.0°F 58.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 19:00 EDT 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 18:00 EDT 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 17:00 EDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 16:00 EDT 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 15:00 EDT 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 14:00 EDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 13:00 EDT 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 12:00 EDT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 11:00 EDT 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 10:00 EDT 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 09:00 EDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 08:00 EDT 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 07:00 EDT 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 06:00 EDT 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 05:00 EDT 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 04:00 EDT 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 03:00 EDT 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 02:00 EDT 54.0°F 56.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 01:00 EDT 54.0°F 56.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 00:00 EDT 55.0°F 58.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 23:00 EDT 55.0°F 58.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 22:00 EDT 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 21:00 EDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 20:00 EDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest forecast that already covers the local date (morning low and afternoon high), not the first overnight hour at the edge of the hourly window, vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-10-11 63.0°F 54.0°F +9.0° 45.0°F 47.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-10 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-09 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 46.0°F 43.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-08 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-07 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 40.0°F 37.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-06 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-05 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-04 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0°F 49.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-03 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-02 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-01 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0°
2026-09-30 73.0°F 66.0°F +7.0° 54.0°F 57.0°F -3.0°
2026-09-29 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0°
2026-09-28 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0°