Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Rhode Island · America/New_York · 41.82, -71.41

Latest observation
71.0°F
2026-08-28 07:00 EDT · temp 71.0°F · feels 71.0°F · RH 96% · dew 70.0°F · wind 0.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
180
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
2.22°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-08-28 07:00 EDT changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/New_York). Actual: 71.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

67°69°70°72°73° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 71.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT 48.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 08:00 EDT 47.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 09:00 EDT 46.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 10:00 EDT 45.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 11:00 EDT 44.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 12:00 EDT 43.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 13:00 EDT 42.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 14:00 EDT 41.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 15:00 EDT 40.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT 39.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 17:00 EDT 38.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 18:00 EDT 37.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-26 19:00 EDT 36.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 20:00 EDT 35.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 21:00 EDT 34.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 22:00 EDT 33.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-26 23:00 EDT 32.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 00:00 EDT 31.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 01:00 EDT 30.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 02:00 EDT 29.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT 28.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 04:00 EDT 27.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 05:00 EDT 26.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 06:00 EDT 25.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 07:00 EDT 24.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 08:00 EDT 23.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 09:00 EDT 22.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 10:00 EDT 21.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 11:00 EDT 20.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 12:00 EDT 19.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 13:00 EDT 18.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 14:00 EDT 17.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-27 15:00 EDT 16.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 16:00 EDT 15.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 17:00 EDT 14.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 18:00 EDT 13.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 19:00 EDT 12.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 20:00 EDT 11.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 21:00 EDT 10.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 22:00 EDT 9.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-27 23:00 EDT 8.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-28 00:00 EDT 7.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-28 01:00 EDT 6.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-08-28 02:00 EDT 5.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT 4.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 04:00 EDT 3.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 05:00 EDT 2.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT 1.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-28 07:00 EDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 EDT 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 04:00 EDT 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 EDT 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 01:00 EDT 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 EDT 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 EDT 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 EDT 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 21:00 EDT 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 20:00 EDT 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 19:00 EDT 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 18:00 EDT 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 17:00 EDT 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 16:00 EDT 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 15:00 EDT 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 14:00 EDT 78.0°F 83.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 13:00 EDT 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 12:00 EDT 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 11:00 EDT 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 10:00 EDT 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 09:00 EDT 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 08:00 EDT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 07:00 EDT 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 06:00 EDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 05:00 EDT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 04:00 EDT 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 EDT 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 01:00 EDT 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 00:00 EDT 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 23:00 EDT 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 22:00 EDT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 21:00 EDT 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 20:00 EDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 19:00 EDT 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 18:00 EDT 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 17:00 EDT 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 EDT 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 14:00 EDT 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 13:00 EDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 12:00 EDT 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 11:00 EDT 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 10:00 EDT 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 09:00 EDT 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 08:00 EDT 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 EDT 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 05:00 EDT 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 04:00 EDT 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 03:00 EDT 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 02:00 EDT 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 01:00 EDT 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 00:00 EDT 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 23:00 EDT 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 22:00 EDT 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 EDT 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 19:00 EDT 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 18:00 EDT 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 17:00 EDT 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 16:00 EDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 15:00 EDT 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 14:00 EDT 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 13:00 EDT 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 12:00 EDT 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 11:00 EDT 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 10:00 EDT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 09:00 EDT 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 08:00 EDT 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 07:00 EDT 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 06:00 EDT 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 05:00 EDT 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 04:00 EDT 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 03:00 EDT 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 02:00 EDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 EDT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 23:00 EDT 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 22:00 EDT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 EDT 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 19:00 EDT 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 18:00 EDT 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 17:00 EDT 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 16:00 EDT 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 15:00 EDT 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 14:00 EDT 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 13:00 EDT 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 EDT 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 EDT 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 08:00 EDT 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 07:00 EDT 66.0°F 62.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 EDT 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 EDT 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 EDT 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 00:00 EDT 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 23:00 EDT 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 22:00 EDT 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 21:00 EDT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 EDT 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 18:00 EDT 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 17:00 EDT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 16:00 EDT 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 15:00 EDT 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 EDT 74.0°F 69.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 12:00 EDT 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 11:00 EDT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 10:00 EDT 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 09:00 EDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 EDT 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 EDT 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 04:00 EDT 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 03:00 EDT 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 02:00 EDT 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 01:00 EDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 00:00 EDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 23:00 EDT 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 22:00 EDT 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 21:00 EDT 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 20:00 EDT 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 19:00 EDT 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 18:00 EDT 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 17:00 EDT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 EDT 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 EDT 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 12:00 EDT 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 11:00 EDT 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 10:00 EDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 09:00 EDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 08:00 EDT 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 07:00 EDT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 06:00 EDT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 05:00 EDT 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 04:00 EDT 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 03:00 EDT 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 02:00 EDT 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 01:00 EDT 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 00:00 EDT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 23:00 EDT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 22:00 EDT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 21:00 EDT 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 EDT 73.0°F 67.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 18:00 EDT 76.0°F 67.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 17:00 EDT 80.0°F 65.0°F +15.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 16:00 EDT 80.0°F 66.0°F +14.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 15:00 EDT 80.0°F 66.0°F +14.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 14:00 EDT 80.0°F 67.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 13:00 EDT 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 12:00 EDT 77.0°F 66.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 11:00 EDT 76.0°F 66.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 10:00 EDT 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 09:00 EDT 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 08:00 EDT 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 07:00 EDT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 06:00 EDT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 05:00 EDT 62.0°F 66.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 04:00 EDT 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 03:00 EDT 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 02:00 EDT 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 01:00 EDT 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 00:00 EDT 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 23:00 EDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 22:00 EDT 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 21:00 EDT 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 20:00 EDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-08-27 64.0°F 83.0°F -19.0° 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0°
2026-08-26 65.0°F 80.0°F -15.0° 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-25 65.0°F 79.0°F -14.0° 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0°
2026-08-24 69.0°F 82.0°F -13.0° 69.0°F 62.0°F +7.0°
2026-08-23 68.0°F 77.0°F -9.0° 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0°
2026-08-22 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0°
2026-08-21 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0°
2026-08-20 71.0°F 86.0°F -15.0° 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-19 68.0°F 86.0°F -18.0° 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0°
2026-08-18 70.0°F 81.0°F -11.0° 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0°
2026-08-17 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-16 64.0°F 79.0°F -15.0° 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-15 67.0°F 80.0°F -13.0° 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0°
2026-08-14 71.0°F 83.0°F -12.0° 71.0°F 65.0°F +6.0°