Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Alaska · America/Juneau · 58.30, -134.42

Latest observation
41.0°F
2026-08-28 06:00 AKDT · temp 41.0°F · feels 41.0°F · RH 100% · dew 41.0°F · wind 0.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
183
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
2.46°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-08-28 06:00 AKDT changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Juneau). Actual: 41.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

39°43°46°50°53° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 41.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-10°-5°+0°+5°+10° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-08-26 06:00 AKDT 48.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 07:00 AKDT 47.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 08:00 AKDT 46.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 09:00 AKDT 45.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 10:00 AKDT 44.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 11:00 AKDT 43.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 12:00 AKDT 42.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 13:00 AKDT 41.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 14:00 AKDT 40.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 15:00 AKDT 39.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 16:00 AKDT 38.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 17:00 AKDT 37.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 18:00 AKDT 36.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 19:00 AKDT 35.0 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0°
2026-08-26 20:00 AKDT 34.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-26 21:00 AKDT 33.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-26 22:00 AKDT 32.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-26 23:00 AKDT 31.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 00:00 AKDT 30.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 01:00 AKDT 29.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 02:00 AKDT 28.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 03:00 AKDT 27.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 04:00 AKDT 26.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 05:00 AKDT 25.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 06:00 AKDT 24.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 07:00 AKDT 23.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 08:00 AKDT 22.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 09:00 AKDT 21.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 10:00 AKDT 20.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 11:00 AKDT 19.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 12:00 AKDT 18.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 13:00 AKDT 17.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 14:00 AKDT 16.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 15:00 AKDT 15.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 16:00 AKDT 14.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 17:00 AKDT 13.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 18:00 AKDT 12.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 19:00 AKDT 11.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 20:00 AKDT 10.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 21:00 AKDT 9.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 22:00 AKDT 8.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-27 23:00 AKDT 7.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-28 00:00 AKDT 6.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-28 01:00 AKDT 5.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-28 02:00 AKDT 4.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-28 03:00 AKDT 3.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-28 04:00 AKDT 2.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-28 05:00 AKDT 1.0 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-28 06:00 AKDT 51.0°F 41.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 AKDT 51.0°F 42.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 04:00 AKDT 51.0°F 43.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 AKDT 51.0°F 44.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 AKDT 52.0°F 44.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 01:00 AKDT 53.0°F 46.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 AKDT 53.0°F 47.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 AKDT 54.0°F 47.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 AKDT 55.0°F 50.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 21:00 AKDT 56.0°F 51.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 20:00 AKDT 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 19:00 AKDT 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 18:00 AKDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 17:00 AKDT 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 16:00 AKDT 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 15:00 AKDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 14:00 AKDT 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 13:00 AKDT 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 12:00 AKDT 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 11:00 AKDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 10:00 AKDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 09:00 AKDT 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 08:00 AKDT 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 07:00 AKDT 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 06:00 AKDT 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 05:00 AKDT 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 04:00 AKDT 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 AKDT 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 AKDT 55.0°F 51.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 01:00 AKDT 56.0°F 51.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 00:00 AKDT 56.0°F 51.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 23:00 AKDT 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 22:00 AKDT 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 21:00 AKDT 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 20:00 AKDT 57.0°F 54.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 19:00 AKDT 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 18:00 AKDT 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 17:00 AKDT 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 AKDT 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 AKDT 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 14:00 AKDT 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 13:00 AKDT 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 12:00 AKDT 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 11:00 AKDT 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 10:00 AKDT 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 09:00 AKDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 08:00 AKDT 55.0°F 51.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 AKDT 54.0°F 47.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 AKDT 53.0°F 46.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 05:00 AKDT 54.0°F 47.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 04:00 AKDT 54.0°F 48.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 03:00 AKDT 54.0°F 48.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 02:00 AKDT 55.0°F 50.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 01:00 AKDT 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 00:00 AKDT 57.0°F 51.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 23:00 AKDT 58.0°F 53.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 22:00 AKDT 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 AKDT 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 AKDT 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 19:00 AKDT 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 18:00 AKDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 17:00 AKDT 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 16:00 AKDT 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 15:00 AKDT 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 14:00 AKDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 13:00 AKDT 64.0°F 60.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 12:00 AKDT 62.0°F 57.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 11:00 AKDT 61.0°F 55.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 10:00 AKDT 59.0°F 53.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 09:00 AKDT 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 08:00 AKDT 55.0°F 51.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 07:00 AKDT 53.0°F 49.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 06:00 AKDT 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 05:00 AKDT 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 04:00 AKDT 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 03:00 AKDT 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 02:00 AKDT 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 AKDT 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 AKDT 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 23:00 AKDT 56.0°F 53.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 22:00 AKDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 AKDT 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 AKDT 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 19:00 AKDT 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 18:00 AKDT 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 17:00 AKDT 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 16:00 AKDT 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 15:00 AKDT 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 14:00 AKDT 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 13:00 AKDT 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 AKDT 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 AKDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 AKDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 AKDT 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 08:00 AKDT 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 07:00 AKDT 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 AKDT 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 AKDT 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 AKDT 52.0°F 53.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 AKDT 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 AKDT 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 AKDT 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 00:00 AKDT 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 23:00 AKDT 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 22:00 AKDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 21:00 AKDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 AKDT 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 AKDT 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 18:00 AKDT 56.0°F 60.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 17:00 AKDT 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 16:00 AKDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 15:00 AKDT 57.0°F 62.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 AKDT 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 AKDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 12:00 AKDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 11:00 AKDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 10:00 AKDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 09:00 AKDT 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 AKDT 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 AKDT 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 AKDT 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 AKDT 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 04:00 AKDT 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 03:00 AKDT 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 02:00 AKDT 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 01:00 AKDT 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 00:00 AKDT 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 23:00 AKDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 22:00 AKDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 21:00 AKDT 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 20:00 AKDT 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 19:00 AKDT 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 18:00 AKDT 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 17:00 AKDT 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 AKDT 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 AKDT 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 AKDT 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 AKDT 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 12:00 AKDT 58.0°F 62.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 11:00 AKDT 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 10:00 AKDT 56.0°F 59.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 09:00 AKDT 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 08:00 AKDT 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 07:00 AKDT 54.0°F 57.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 06:00 AKDT 54.0°F 58.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 05:00 AKDT 54.0°F 58.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 04:00 AKDT 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 03:00 AKDT 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 02:00 AKDT 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 01:00 AKDT 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 00:00 AKDT 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 23:00 AKDT 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 22:00 AKDT 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 21:00 AKDT 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 AKDT 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 AKDT 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 18:00 AKDT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 17:00 AKDT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 16:00 AKDT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 15:00 AKDT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 14:00 AKDT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 13:00 AKDT 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 12:00 AKDT 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 11:00 AKDT 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 10:00 AKDT 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 09:00 AKDT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 08:00 AKDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 07:00 AKDT 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 06:00 AKDT 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 05:00 AKDT 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 04:00 AKDT 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 03:00 AKDT 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 02:00 AKDT 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 01:00 AKDT 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 00:00 AKDT 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 23:00 AKDT 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 22:00 AKDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 21:00 AKDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 20:00 AKDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 19:00 AKDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 AKDT 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 AKDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 AKDT 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-08-27 56.0°F 60.0°F -4.0° 56.0°F 47.0°F +9.0°
2026-08-26 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 57.0°F 46.0°F +11.0°
2026-08-25 55.0°F 64.0°F -9.0° 55.0°F 49.0°F +6.0°
2026-08-24 55.0°F 64.0°F -9.0° 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-23 55.0°F 62.0°F -7.0° 55.0°F 51.0°F +4.0°
2026-08-22 57.0°F 64.0°F -7.0° 57.0°F 54.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-21 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-20 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0° 56.0°F 53.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-19 56.0°F 62.0°F -6.0° 56.0°F 53.0°F +3.0°
2026-08-18 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0°
2026-08-17 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0°
2026-08-16 62.0°F 72.0°F -10.0° 62.0°F 51.0°F +11.0°
2026-08-15 64.0°F 80.0°F -16.0° 64.0°F 48.0°F +16.0°
2026-08-14 63.0°F 84.0°F -21.0° 63.0°F 50.0°F +13.0°