Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Arizona · America/Phoenix · 33.45, -112.07

Latest observation
73.0°F
2026-10-12 08:00 MST · temp 73.0°F · feels 73.0°F · RH 64% · dew 60.0°F · wind 14.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
184
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
2.35°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-10-12 08:00 MST changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Phoenix). Actual: 73.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

69°71°72°74°75° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 73.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-10-10 08:00 MST 48.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 09:00 MST 47.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 10:00 MST 46.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 11:00 MST 45.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 12:00 MST 44.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 13:00 MST 43.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 14:00 MST 42.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 15:00 MST 41.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 16:00 MST 40.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 17:00 MST 39.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 18:00 MST 38.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 19:00 MST 37.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 20:00 MST 36.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 21:00 MST 35.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 22:00 MST 34.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-10 23:00 MST 33.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-11 00:00 MST 32.0 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-11 01:00 MST 31.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 02:00 MST 30.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 03:00 MST 29.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 04:00 MST 28.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 05:00 MST 27.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 06:00 MST 26.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 07:00 MST 25.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 08:00 MST 24.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 09:00 MST 23.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 10:00 MST 22.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 11:00 MST 21.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 12:00 MST 20.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 13:00 MST 19.0 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-11 14:00 MST 18.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-11 15:00 MST 17.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-11 16:00 MST 16.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-11 17:00 MST 15.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-11 18:00 MST 14.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-11 19:00 MST 13.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-11 20:00 MST 12.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-11 21:00 MST 11.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-11 22:00 MST 10.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-11 23:00 MST 9.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-12 00:00 MST 8.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-12 01:00 MST 7.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-12 02:00 MST 6.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-12 03:00 MST 5.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-12 04:00 MST 4.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-12 05:00 MST 3.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-12 06:00 MST 2.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-12 07:00 MST 1.0 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-10-12 08:00 MST 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 07:00 MST 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 06:00 MST 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 05:00 MST 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 04:00 MST 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 03:00 MST 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 02:00 MST 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 01:00 MST 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 00:00 MST 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 23:00 MST 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 22:00 MST 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 21:00 MST 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 20:00 MST 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 19:00 MST 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 18:00 MST 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 17:00 MST 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 16:00 MST 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 15:00 MST 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 14:00 MST 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 13:00 MST 83.0°F 88.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 12:00 MST 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 11:00 MST 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 10:00 MST 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 09:00 MST 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 08:00 MST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 07:00 MST 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 06:00 MST 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 05:00 MST 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 04:00 MST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 03:00 MST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 02:00 MST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 01:00 MST 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 00:00 MST 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 23:00 MST 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 22:00 MST 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 21:00 MST 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 20:00 MST 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 19:00 MST 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 18:00 MST 85.0°F 79.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 17:00 MST 86.0°F 79.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 16:00 MST 88.0°F 78.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 15:00 MST 89.0°F 79.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 14:00 MST 91.0°F 79.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 13:00 MST 88.0°F 96.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 12:00 MST 88.0°F 95.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 11:00 MST 87.0°F 93.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 10:00 MST 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 09:00 MST 83.0°F 87.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 08:00 MST 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 07:00 MST 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 06:00 MST 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 05:00 MST 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 04:00 MST 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 03:00 MST 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 02:00 MST 83.0°F 87.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 01:00 MST 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 00:00 MST 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 23:00 MST 87.0°F 91.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 22:00 MST 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 21:00 MST 90.0°F 94.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 20:00 MST 92.0°F 95.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 19:00 MST 94.0°F 97.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 18:00 MST 97.0°F 99.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 17:00 MST 99.0°F 101.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 16:00 MST 100.0°F 101.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 15:00 MST 100.0°F 103.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 14:00 MST 101.0°F 102.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 13:00 MST 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 12:00 MST 97.0°F 100.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 11:00 MST 96.0°F 96.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 10:00 MST 92.0°F 94.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 09:00 MST 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 08:00 MST 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 07:00 MST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 06:00 MST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 05:00 MST 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 04:00 MST 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 03:00 MST 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 02:00 MST 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 01:00 MST 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 00:00 MST 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 23:00 MST 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 22:00 MST 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 21:00 MST 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 20:00 MST 92.0°F 97.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 19:00 MST 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 18:00 MST 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 17:00 MST 101.0°F 102.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 16:00 MST 101.0°F 102.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 15:00 MST 100.0°F 103.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 14:00 MST 100.0°F 99.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 13:00 MST 99.0°F 99.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 12:00 MST 97.0°F 98.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 11:00 MST 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 10:00 MST 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 09:00 MST 86.0°F 89.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 08:00 MST 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 07:00 MST 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 06:00 MST 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 05:00 MST 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 04:00 MST 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 03:00 MST 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 02:00 MST 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 01:00 MST 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 00:00 MST 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 23:00 MST 86.0°F 92.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 22:00 MST 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 21:00 MST 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 20:00 MST 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 19:00 MST 94.0°F 97.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 18:00 MST 97.0°F 98.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 17:00 MST 100.0°F 99.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 16:00 MST 100.0°F 101.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 15:00 MST 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 14:00 MST 99.0°F 99.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 13:00 MST 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 12:00 MST 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 11:00 MST 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 10:00 MST 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 09:00 MST 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 08:00 MST 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 07:00 MST 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 06:00 MST 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 05:00 MST 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 04:00 MST 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 03:00 MST 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 02:00 MST 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 01:00 MST 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 00:00 MST 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 23:00 MST 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 22:00 MST 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 21:00 MST 88.0°F 91.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 20:00 MST 90.0°F 93.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 19:00 MST 93.0°F 96.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 18:00 MST 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 17:00 MST 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 16:00 MST 98.0°F 98.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 15:00 MST 97.0°F 98.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 14:00 MST 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 13:00 MST 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 12:00 MST 94.0°F 95.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 11:00 MST 92.0°F 94.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 10:00 MST 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 09:00 MST 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 08:00 MST 80.0°F 85.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 07:00 MST 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 06:00 MST 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 05:00 MST 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 04:00 MST 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 03:00 MST 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 02:00 MST 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 01:00 MST 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 00:00 MST 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 23:00 MST 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 22:00 MST 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 21:00 MST 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 20:00 MST 88.0°F 93.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 19:00 MST 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 18:00 MST 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 17:00 MST 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 16:00 MST 96.0°F 98.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 15:00 MST 96.0°F 98.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 14:00 MST 97.0°F 98.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 13:00 MST 96.0°F 96.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 12:00 MST 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 11:00 MST 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 10:00 MST 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 09:00 MST 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 08:00 MST 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 07:00 MST 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 06:00 MST 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 05:00 MST 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 04:00 MST 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 03:00 MST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 02:00 MST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 01:00 MST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 00:00 MST 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 23:00 MST 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 22:00 MST 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 21:00 MST 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 20:00 MST 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 19:00 MST 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 18:00 MST 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 17:00 MST 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest forecast that already covers the local date (morning low and afternoon high), not the first overnight hour at the edge of the hourly window, vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-10-11 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 91.0°F 96.0°F -5.0° 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0°
2026-10-09 101.0°F 103.0°F -2.0° 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-08 101.0°F 103.0°F -2.0° 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-07 100.0°F 101.0°F -1.0° 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-06 98.0°F 98.0°F +0.0° 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-05 97.0°F 98.0°F -1.0° 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-04 97.0°F 99.0°F -2.0° 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-03 91.0°F 96.0°F -5.0° 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-10-02 93.0°F 96.0°F -3.0° 73.0°F 79.0°F -6.0°
2026-10-01 87.0°F 93.0°F -6.0° 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-09-30 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-29 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0°
2026-09-28 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 78.0°F 71.0°F +7.0°