Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 176 | 1.35 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.48 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.49 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.51 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.59 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 1.61 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.78 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 1.85 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 1.89 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.01 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.06 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.07 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.08 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.19 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.34 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.36 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.36 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.39 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.47 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.47 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.52 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.53 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.54 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.56 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.58 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.66 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.67 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.69 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.72 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.85 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.85 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.88 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.88 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 2.97 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.98 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.01 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.03 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 3.06 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.06 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.09 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.11 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 3.16 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 3.23 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.30 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.31 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 3.47 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.61 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.65 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.66 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 4.38 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 95.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 68.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |