Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.46 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.51 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.66 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.76 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.83 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.05 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.08 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.11 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.11 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.13 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.14 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.18 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.22 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.28 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.30 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.34 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.37 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.41 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.41 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.44 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.45 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.48 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.56 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.59 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.59 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.63 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.63 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.63 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.71 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.82 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.88 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.93 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.01 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 3.04 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 3.04 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.10 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 3.14 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 3.15 | -2.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 3.19 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.25 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.38 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.38 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.40 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.44 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.63 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.69 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.75 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.82 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.88 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 4.14 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 45.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 65.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 59.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-24 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |