Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Delaware · America/New_York · 39.16, -75.52

Latest observation
66.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC · Clear
Hour samples (7d)
4
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
2.25°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 10:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC 64.0°F 64.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 64.0°F 64.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 64.0°F 64.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 64.0°F 64.0°F 0 Sunny

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 07:00 UTC

CollectedTempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC66.0°F0Clear

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 91.0°F 68.0°F +23.0° 73.0°F 66.0°F +7.0°