Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Connecticut · America/New_York · 41.77, -72.67

Latest observation
71.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC · Mostly Sunny
Hour samples (7d)
5
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
1.40°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC 70.0°F 70.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 71.0°F 71.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 71.0°F 71.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 71.0°F 71.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 71.0°F 71.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 10:00 UTC

CollectedTempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC68.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC69.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC69.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC69.0°F0Sunny

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 96.0°F 71.0°F +25.0° 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0°