Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Wyoming · America/Denver · 41.14, -104.82

Latest observation
87.0°F
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT
Hour samples (7d)
13
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
0.85°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 14:00 MDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Denver).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 01:00 MDT 88.0°F 85.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 MDT 88.0°F 85.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 MDT 89.0°F 85.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 MDT 89.0°F 85.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 MDT 89.0°F 85.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 MDT 89.0°F 85.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 MDT 89.0°F 85.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 MDT 89.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT 89.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT 89.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 11:00 MDT 89.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 12:00 MDT 89.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 13:00 MDT 89.0°F — — —

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 13:00 MDT 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 12:00 MDT 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 11:00 MDT 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 08:00 MDT 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 07:00 MDT 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 06:00 MDT 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 05:00 MDT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 04:00 MDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 03:00 MDT 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 02:00 MDT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 12:00 MDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 01:00 MDT84.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 MDT84.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 MDT86.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 MDT86.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 MDT86.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 MDT86.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 MDT86.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 MDT86.0°F——
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT86.0°F——
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT86.0°F——
2026-07-14 11:00 MDT86.0°F——

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.