Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Washington · America/Los_Angeles · 47.04, -122.90

Latest observation
74.0°F
2026-07-15 21:00 PDT
Hour samples (7d)
45
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
3.24°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-15 20:00 PDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Los_Angeles). Actual for that hour: 79.0°F. · Clear selection

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known.

73°75°77°79°81° 44h35h27h18h10h1h actual 79.0°F 2026-07-14 00:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 44.0h)2026-07-14 01:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 43.0h)2026-07-14 02:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 42.0h)2026-07-14 03:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 41.0h)2026-07-14 04:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 40.0h)2026-07-14 05:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 39.0h)2026-07-14 06:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 38.0h)2026-07-14 07:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 37.0h)2026-07-14 08:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 36.0h)2026-07-14 09:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 35.0h)2026-07-14 10:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 34.0h)2026-07-14 11:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 33.0h)2026-07-14 12:00 PDT: forecast 76.0°F (lead 32.0h)2026-07-14 13:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 31.0h)2026-07-14 14:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 30.0h)2026-07-14 15:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 29.0h)2026-07-14 16:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 28.0h)2026-07-14 17:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 27.0h)2026-07-14 18:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 26.0h)2026-07-14 19:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 25.0h)2026-07-14 20:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 24.0h)2026-07-14 21:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 23.0h)2026-07-14 22:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 22.0h)2026-07-14 23:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 21.0h)2026-07-15 00:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 20.0h)2026-07-15 01:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 19.0h)2026-07-15 02:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 18.0h)2026-07-15 03:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 17.0h)2026-07-15 04:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 16.0h)2026-07-15 05:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 15.0h)2026-07-15 06:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 14.0h)2026-07-15 07:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 13.0h)2026-07-15 08:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 12.0h)2026-07-15 09:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 11.0h)2026-07-15 10:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 10.0h)2026-07-15 11:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 9.0h)2026-07-15 12:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 8.0h)2026-07-15 13:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 7.0h)2026-07-15 14:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 6.0h)2026-07-15 15:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 5.0h)2026-07-15 16:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 4.0h)2026-07-15 17:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 3.0h)2026-07-15 18:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 2.0h)2026-07-15 19:00 PDT: forecast 75.0°F (lead 1.0h) Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Hover points for details.

-4°-2°+0°+2°+4° 44h35h27h18h10h1h Lead 44.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 43.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 42.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 41.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 40.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 39.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 38.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 37.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 36.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 35.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 34.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 33.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 32.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 31.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 30.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 29.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 28.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 27.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 26.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 25.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 24.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 23.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 22.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 21.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 20.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 19.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 18.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 17.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 16.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 15.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 14.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 13.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 12.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 11.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 10.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 9.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 8.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 7.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 6.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 5.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 4.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 3.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 2.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 1.0h: error -4.0°F (forecast − actual) Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-07-14 00:00 PDT 44.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT 43.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT 42.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT 41.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT 40.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT 39.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 PDT 38.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 PDT 37.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 PDT 36.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 PDT 35.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 PDT 34.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 PDT 33.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 PDT 32.0 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 PDT 31.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 PDT 30.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 PDT 29.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 PDT 28.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 PDT 27.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 PDT 26.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 PDT 25.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 PDT 24.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 PDT 23.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 PDT 22.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 23:00 PDT 21.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 00:00 PDT 20.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 01:00 PDT 19.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 02:00 PDT 18.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 03:00 PDT 17.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 04:00 PDT 16.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 05:00 PDT 15.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 06:00 PDT 14.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 07:00 PDT 13.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 08:00 PDT 12.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 09:00 PDT 11.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 10:00 PDT 10.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 11:00 PDT 9.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 12:00 PDT 8.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 13:00 PDT 7.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 14:00 PDT 6.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 15:00 PDT 5.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 16:00 PDT 4.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 17:00 PDT 3.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 18:00 PDT 2.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-15 19:00 PDT 1.0 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0°

Hourly accuracy

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 21:00 PDT 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 20:00 PDT 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 19:00 PDT 76.0°F 82.0°F -6.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 18:00 PDT 78.0°F 84.0°F -6.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 17:00 PDT 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 16:00 PDT 79.0°F 84.0°F -5.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 15:00 PDT 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 14:00 PDT 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 13:00 PDT 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 12:00 PDT 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 11:00 PDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 10:00 PDT 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 09:00 PDT 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 08:00 PDT 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 07:00 PDT 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 06:00 PDT 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 05:00 PDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 04:00 PDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 03:00 PDT 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 02:00 PDT 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 01:00 PDT 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 00:00 PDT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 24.0
2026-07-14 23:00 PDT 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 22:00 PDT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 21:00 PDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 20:00 PDT 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 19:00 PDT 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 18:00 PDT 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 17:00 PDT 81.0°F 86.0°F -5.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 16:00 PDT 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 15:00 PDT 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 14:00 PDT 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 13:00 PDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 12:00 PDT 71.0°F 76.0°F -5.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 11:00 PDT 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 10:00 PDT 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 09:00 PDT 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 08:00 PDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 07:00 PDT 55.0°F 50.0°F +5.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 06:00 PDT 53.0°F 44.0°F +9.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT 53.0°F 47.0°F +6.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT 54.0°F 45.0°F +9.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT 55.0°F 48.0°F +7.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT 56.0°F 50.0°F +6.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT 57.0°F 53.0°F +4.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 55.0°F 44.0°F +11.0°