Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Texas · America/Chicago · 30.27, -97.74

Latest observation
74.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT
Hour samples (7d)
8
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
2.00°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Chicago).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 77.0°F 77.0°F 77 Isolated Storms
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 75.0°F 75.0°F 92 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 75.0°F 75.0°F 92 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 75.0°F 75.0°F 92 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 75.0°F 75.0°F 92 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 75.0°F 75.0°F 92 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 75.0°F 75.0°F 100 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 75.0°F

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 09:00 CDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT75.0°F85Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT75.0°F91Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT75.0°F91Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT75.0°F91Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT75.0°F91Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT75.0°F100Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT75.0°F100Chance of Storms

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.