Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Texas · America/Chicago · 30.27, -97.74

Latest observation
76.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC · Mostly Cloudy
Hour samples (7d)
3
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
1.67°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 10:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 77.0°F 77.0°F 56 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 77.0°F 77.0°F 100 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 77.0°F 77.0°F 100 Chance of Storms

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 08:00 UTC

CollectedTempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC78.0°F100Chance of Storms

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 88.0°F 76.0°F +12.0° 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0°