Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Tennessee · America/Chicago · 36.16, -86.78

Latest observation
75.0°F
2026-10-12 11:00 CDT · temp 75.0°F · feels 75.0°F · RH 69% · dew 64.0°F · wind 0.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
185
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
3.51°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Chicago). Actual: 75.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

73°75°77°78°80° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 75.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-4°-2°+0°+2°+4° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-10-10 11:00 CDT 48.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 12:00 CDT 47.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 13:00 CDT 46.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 14:00 CDT 45.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 15:00 CDT 44.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 16:00 CDT 43.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 17:00 CDT 42.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 18:00 CDT 41.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 19:00 CDT 40.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 20:00 CDT 39.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 21:00 CDT 38.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 22:00 CDT 37.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 23:00 CDT 36.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 00:00 CDT 35.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 01:00 CDT 34.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 02:00 CDT 33.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 03:00 CDT 32.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 04:00 CDT 31.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 05:00 CDT 30.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 06:00 CDT 29.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 07:00 CDT 28.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 08:00 CDT 27.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 09:00 CDT 26.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 10:00 CDT 25.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 11:00 CDT 24.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 12:00 CDT 23.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 13:00 CDT 22.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 14:00 CDT 21.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 15:00 CDT 20.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 16:00 CDT 19.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 17:00 CDT 18.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 18:00 CDT 17.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 19:00 CDT 16.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 20:00 CDT 15.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 21:00 CDT 14.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 22:00 CDT 13.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 23:00 CDT 12.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-12 00:00 CDT 11.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-12 01:00 CDT 10.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-12 02:00 CDT 9.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-12 03:00 CDT 8.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-12 04:00 CDT 7.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-12 05:00 CDT 6.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-12 06:00 CDT 5.0 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-12 07:00 CDT 4.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-12 08:00 CDT 3.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-12 09:00 CDT 2.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-12 10:00 CDT 1.0 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-10-12 11:00 CDT 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 10:00 CDT 74.0°F 66.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 09:00 CDT 69.0°F 57.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 08:00 CDT 64.0°F 54.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 07:00 CDT 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 06:00 CDT 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 05:00 CDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 04:00 CDT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 03:00 CDT 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 02:00 CDT 62.0°F 57.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 01:00 CDT 62.0°F 57.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 00:00 CDT 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 23:00 CDT 64.0°F 59.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 22:00 CDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 21:00 CDT 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 20:00 CDT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 19:00 CDT 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 18:00 CDT 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 17:00 CDT 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 16:00 CDT 73.0°F 66.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 15:00 CDT 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 14:00 CDT 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 13:00 CDT 71.0°F 64.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 12:00 CDT 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 11:00 CDT 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 10:00 CDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 09:00 CDT 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 08:00 CDT 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 07:00 CDT 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 06:00 CDT 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 05:00 CDT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 04:00 CDT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 03:00 CDT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 02:00 CDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 01:00 CDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 00:00 CDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 23:00 CDT 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 22:00 CDT 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 21:00 CDT 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 20:00 CDT 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 19:00 CDT 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 18:00 CDT 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 17:00 CDT 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 16:00 CDT 70.0°F 64.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 15:00 CDT 70.0°F 63.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 14:00 CDT 70.0°F 63.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 13:00 CDT 70.0°F 63.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 12:00 CDT 69.0°F 63.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 11:00 CDT 73.0°F 64.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 10:00 CDT 72.0°F 64.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 09:00 CDT 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 08:00 CDT 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 07:00 CDT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 06:00 CDT 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 05:00 CDT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 04:00 CDT 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 03:00 CDT 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 02:00 CDT 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 01:00 CDT 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 00:00 CDT 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 23:00 CDT 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 22:00 CDT 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 21:00 CDT 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 20:00 CDT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 19:00 CDT 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 18:00 CDT 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 17:00 CDT 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 16:00 CDT 89.0°F 82.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 15:00 CDT 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 14:00 CDT 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 13:00 CDT 87.0°F 81.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 12:00 CDT 81.0°F 66.0°F +15.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 11:00 CDT 77.0°F 66.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 10:00 CDT 73.0°F 66.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 09:00 CDT 68.0°F 52.0°F +16.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 08:00 CDT 63.0°F 52.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 07:00 CDT 58.0°F 52.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 06:00 CDT 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 05:00 CDT 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 04:00 CDT 60.0°F 54.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 03:00 CDT 61.0°F 55.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 02:00 CDT 63.0°F 55.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 01:00 CDT 64.0°F 57.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 00:00 CDT 66.0°F 61.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 23:00 CDT 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 22:00 CDT 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 21:00 CDT 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 20:00 CDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 19:00 CDT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 18:00 CDT 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 17:00 CDT 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 16:00 CDT 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 15:00 CDT 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 14:00 CDT 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 13:00 CDT 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 12:00 CDT 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 11:00 CDT 77.0°F 64.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 10:00 CDT 73.0°F 64.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 09:00 CDT 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 08:00 CDT 63.0°F 55.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 07:00 CDT 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 06:00 CDT 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 05:00 CDT 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 04:00 CDT 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 03:00 CDT 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 02:00 CDT 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 01:00 CDT 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 00:00 CDT 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 23:00 CDT 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 22:00 CDT 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 21:00 CDT 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 20:00 CDT 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 19:00 CDT 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 18:00 CDT 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 17:00 CDT 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 16:00 CDT 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 15:00 CDT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 14:00 CDT 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 13:00 CDT 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 12:00 CDT 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 11:00 CDT 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 10:00 CDT 73.0°F 64.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 09:00 CDT 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 08:00 CDT 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 07:00 CDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 06:00 CDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 05:00 CDT 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 04:00 CDT 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 03:00 CDT 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 02:00 CDT 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 01:00 CDT 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 00:00 CDT 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 23:00 CDT 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 22:00 CDT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 21:00 CDT 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 20:00 CDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 19:00 CDT 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 18:00 CDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 17:00 CDT 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 16:00 CDT 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 15:00 CDT 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 14:00 CDT 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 13:00 CDT 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 12:00 CDT 75.0°F 68.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 11:00 CDT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 10:00 CDT 66.0°F 61.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 09:00 CDT 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 08:00 CDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 07:00 CDT 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 06:00 CDT 52.0°F 50.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 05:00 CDT 52.0°F 50.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 04:00 CDT 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 03:00 CDT 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 02:00 CDT 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 01:00 CDT 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 00:00 CDT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 23:00 CDT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 22:00 CDT 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 21:00 CDT 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 20:00 CDT 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 19:00 CDT 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 18:00 CDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 17:00 CDT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 16:00 CDT 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 15:00 CDT 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 14:00 CDT 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 13:00 CDT 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 12:00 CDT 73.0°F 79.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 11:00 CDT 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 10:00 CDT 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 09:00 CDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 08:00 CDT 60.0°F 54.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 07:00 CDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 06:00 CDT 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 05:00 CDT 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 04:00 CDT 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 03:00 CDT 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 02:00 CDT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 01:00 CDT 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 00:00 CDT 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 23:00 CDT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 22:00 CDT 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 21:00 CDT 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 20:00 CDT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 19:00 CDT 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest forecast that already covers the local date (morning low and afternoon high), not the first overnight hour at the edge of the hourly window, vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-10-11 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-09 89.0°F 82.0°F +7.0° 59.0°F 52.0°F +7.0°
2026-10-08 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-07 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-06 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-05 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-04 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-03 78.0°F 70.0°F +8.0° 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-02 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-01 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0°
2026-09-30 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0°
2026-09-29 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0°
2026-09-28 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0°