Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Oregon · America/Los_Angeles · 44.94, -123.04

Latest observation
58.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 UTC · Clear
Hour samples (7d)
5
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
1.20°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 12:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 56.0°F 56.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 56.0°F 56.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 56.0°F 56.0°F 0 Clear
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 56.0°F 56.0°F 0 Clear
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC 56.0°F 56.0°F 0 Clear

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 12:00 UTC 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC

CollectedTempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC57.0°F0Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC57.0°F0Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC57.0°F0Clear
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC57.0°F0Clear

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 91.0°F 68.0°F +23.0° 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0°