Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · North Dakota · America/Chicago · 46.81, -100.78

Latest observation
97.0°F
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT
Hour samples (7d)
15
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
1.80°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Chicago).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 01:00 CDT 98.0°F 101.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 98.0°F 102.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 100.0°F 103.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 100.0°F 103.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 100.0°F 103.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 100.0°F 103.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 100.0°F 103.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 100.0°F 103.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 100.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 100.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 100.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 100.0°F
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 100.0°F
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 97.0°F
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 97.0°F

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 98.0°F 97.0°F +1.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 15:00 CDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 01:00 CDT97.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT97.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT99.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT99.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT99.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT99.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT99.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT99.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT99.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT99.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT99.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT99.0°F
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT99.0°F
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT95.0°F

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.