Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · New York · America/New_York · 42.65, -73.76

Latest observation
93.0°F
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT
Hour samples (7d)
16
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
5.56°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/New_York).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT 97.0°F 102.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 97.0°F 102.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 98.0°F 104.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 98.0°F 104.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 98.0°F 104.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 98.0°F 104.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 98.0°F 104.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 98.0°F 104.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 98.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 98.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 98.0°F
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 98.0°F
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 98.0°F
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 94.0°F
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 94.0°F
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 94.0°F

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 97.0°F 93.0°F +4.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 99.0°F 94.0°F +5.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 99.0°F 93.0°F +6.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 99.0°F 91.0°F +8.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 97.0°F 86.0°F +11.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 95.0°F 83.0°F +12.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 92.0°F 82.0°F +10.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 88.0°F 79.0°F +9.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 83.0°F 76.0°F +7.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 78.0°F 73.0°F +5.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT99.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT99.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT99.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT99.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT99.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT99.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT99.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT99.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT99.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT99.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT99.0°F
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT99.0°F
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT99.0°F
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT95.0°F
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT95.0°F

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.