Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · New Hampshire · America/New_York · 43.21, -71.54

Latest observation
80.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT
Hour samples (7d)
9
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
2.78°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/New_York).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT 87.0°F 89.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 87.0°F 89.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 86.0°F 89.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 86.0°F 89.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 86.0°F 89.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 86.0°F 89.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 86.0°F 89.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 86.0°F 89.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 86.0°F — — —

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 87.0°F 80.0°F +7.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 73.0°F 78.0°F -5.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 09:00 EDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT78.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT78.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT78.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT78.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT78.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT78.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT78.0°F0Mostly Sunny

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.