Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Nevada · America/Los_Angeles · 39.16, -119.77

Latest observation
64.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC · Mostly Clear
Hour samples (7d)
4
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
6.25°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 10:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC 66.0°F 66.0°F 11 Showers
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 66.0°F 66.0°F 11 Showers
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 66.0°F 66.0°F 0 Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 66.0°F 66.0°F 100 Showers

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 70.0°F 64.0°F +6.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 72.0°F 64.0°F +8.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 73.0°F 64.0°F +9.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 08:00 UTC

CollectedTempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC72.0°F38Chance of Showers
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC72.0°F100Chance of Showers

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 86.0°F 64.0°F +22.0° 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-13 87.0°F 66.0°F +21.0° 62.0°F 66.0°F -4.0°