Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Minnesota · America/Chicago · 44.95, -93.09

Latest observation
94.0°F
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT
Hour samples (7d)
38
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
2.58°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Chicago).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 01:00 CDT 96.0°F 99.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 96.0°F 99.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 96.0°F 99.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 97.0°F 100.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 97.0°F 100.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 97.0°F 100.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 97.0°F 100.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 97.0°F 100.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 97.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 97.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 97.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 97.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 96.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 19:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 00:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 01:00 CDT 94.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 02:00 CDT 96.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT 96.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT 96.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 05:00 CDT 96.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 06:00 CDT 96.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT 95.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT 95.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 09:00 CDT 95.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 10:00 CDT 95.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 11:00 CDT 95.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 12:00 CDT 95.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 13:00 CDT 95.0°F — — —
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT 95.0°F — — —

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 13:00 CDT 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 12:00 CDT 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 11:00 CDT 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 10:00 CDT 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 09:00 CDT 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 06:00 CDT 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 05:00 CDT 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 02:00 CDT 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 01:00 CDT 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 24.0
2026-07-15 00:00 CDT 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT 84.0°F 78.0°F +6.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT 86.0°F 80.0°F +6.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT 89.0°F 85.0°F +4.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT 93.0°F 88.0°F +5.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 19:00 CDT 96.0°F 90.0°F +6.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT 97.0°F 92.0°F +5.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT 97.0°F 94.0°F +3.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 96.0°F 93.0°F +3.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 96.0°F 93.0°F +3.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-15 14:00 CDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 01:00 CDT95.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT95.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT96.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT96.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT96.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT96.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT96.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT96.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT96.0°F——
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT96.0°F——
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT96.0°F——
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT96.0°F——
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-14 19:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-15 00:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-15 01:00 CDT94.0°F——
2026-07-15 02:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-15 05:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-15 06:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-15 09:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-15 10:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-15 11:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-15 12:00 CDT95.0°F——
2026-07-15 13:00 CDT94.0°F——

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 97.0°F 94.0°F +3.0° 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0°