Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Alaska · America/Juneau · 58.30, -134.42

Latest observation
60.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 AKDT
Hour samples (7d)
13
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
1.15°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 11:00 AKDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Juneau).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-13 22:00 AKDT 58.0°F 58.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-13 23:00 AKDT 58.0°F 58.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 00:00 AKDT 58.0°F 58.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 01:00 AKDT 58.0°F 58.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 02:00 AKDT 58.0°F 58.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 03:00 AKDT 58.0°F 58.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 04:00 AKDT 58.0°F 58.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 05:00 AKDT 58.0°F 58.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 06:00 AKDT 57.0°F
2026-07-14 07:00 AKDT 57.0°F
2026-07-14 08:00 AKDT 57.0°F
2026-07-14 09:00 AKDT 57.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 AKDT 57.0°F

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 11:00 AKDT 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 10:00 AKDT 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 09:00 AKDT 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 08:00 AKDT 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 07:00 AKDT 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 06:00 AKDT 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 05:00 AKDT 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 04:00 AKDT 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 03:00 AKDT 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 02:00 AKDT 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 01:00 AKDT 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 00:00 AKDT 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 2.0
2026-07-13 23:00 AKDT 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 09:00 AKDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-13 22:00 AKDT55.0°F0Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-13 23:00 AKDT55.0°F0Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 00:00 AKDT55.0°F0Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 01:00 AKDT55.0°F0Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 02:00 AKDT55.0°F0Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 03:00 AKDT55.0°F0Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 04:00 AKDT55.0°F0Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 05:00 AKDT55.0°F0Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 06:00 AKDT54.0°F
2026-07-14 07:00 AKDT54.0°F
2026-07-14 08:00 AKDT54.0°F

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-13 62.0°F 57.7°F +4.3° 51.0°F 52.1°F -1.1°