Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Alaska · America/Juneau · 58.30, -134.42

Latest observation
56.0°F
2026-07-15 22:00 AKDT · temp 56.0°F · feels 56.0°F · RH 97% · dew 55.0°F · wind 0.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
48
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
1.75°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-07-15 22:00 AKDT changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Juneau). Actual: 56.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

54°56°58°60°62° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 56.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-4°-2°+0°+2°+4° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-07-13 22:00 AKDT 48.0 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-13 23:00 AKDT 47.0 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 00:00 AKDT 46.0 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 01:00 AKDT 45.0 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 02:00 AKDT 44.0 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 AKDT 43.0 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 AKDT 42.0 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 AKDT 41.0 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 AKDT 40.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 AKDT 39.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 AKDT 38.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 AKDT 37.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 AKDT 36.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 AKDT 35.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 AKDT 34.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 AKDT 33.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 AKDT 32.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 AKDT 31.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 AKDT 30.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 AKDT 29.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 AKDT 28.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 AKDT 27.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 AKDT 26.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 AKDT 25.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 AKDT 24.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 23:00 AKDT 23.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 00:00 AKDT 22.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 01:00 AKDT 21.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 02:00 AKDT 20.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 03:00 AKDT 19.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 04:00 AKDT 18.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 05:00 AKDT 17.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 06:00 AKDT 16.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 07:00 AKDT 15.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 08:00 AKDT 14.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 09:00 AKDT 13.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 10:00 AKDT 12.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 11:00 AKDT 11.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 12:00 AKDT 10.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 13:00 AKDT 9.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 14:00 AKDT 8.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 15:00 AKDT 7.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 16:00 AKDT 6.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 17:00 AKDT 5.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 18:00 AKDT 4.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 19:00 AKDT 3.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 20:00 AKDT 2.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 21:00 AKDT 1.0 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 22:00 AKDT 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-15 21:00 AKDT 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 47.0
2026-07-15 20:00 AKDT 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 19:00 AKDT 62.0°F 58.0°F +4.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 18:00 AKDT 62.0°F 57.0°F +5.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 17:00 AKDT 62.0°F 57.0°F +5.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 16:00 AKDT 62.0°F 56.0°F +6.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 15:00 AKDT 61.0°F 57.0°F +4.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 14:00 AKDT 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 13:00 AKDT 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 12:00 AKDT 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 11:00 AKDT 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 10:00 AKDT 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 09:00 AKDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 08:00 AKDT 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 07:00 AKDT 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 06:00 AKDT 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 05:00 AKDT 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 04:00 AKDT 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 03:00 AKDT 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 02:00 AKDT 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 01:00 AKDT 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 00:00 AKDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 26.0
2026-07-14 23:00 AKDT 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 25.0
2026-07-14 22:00 AKDT 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 24.0
2026-07-14 21:00 AKDT 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 20:00 AKDT 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 19:00 AKDT 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 18:00 AKDT 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 17:00 AKDT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 16:00 AKDT 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 15:00 AKDT 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 14:00 AKDT 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 13:00 AKDT 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 12:00 AKDT 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 11:00 AKDT 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 10:00 AKDT 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 09:00 AKDT 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 08:00 AKDT 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 07:00 AKDT 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 06:00 AKDT 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 05:00 AKDT 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 04:00 AKDT 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 03:00 AKDT 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 02:00 AKDT 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 01:00 AKDT 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 00:00 AKDT 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 2.0
2026-07-13 23:00 AKDT 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0°
2026-07-13 62.0°F 57.7°F +4.3° 51.0°F 52.1°F -1.1°