Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Maine · America/New_York · 44.31, -69.78

Latest observation
71.0°F
2026-07-16 00:00 EDT
Hour samples (7d)
46
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
3.74°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/New_York). Actual for that hour: 71.0°F. · Clear selection

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known.

66°68°70°71°73° 45h36h27h19h10h1h actual 71.0°F 2026-07-14 02:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 45.0h)2026-07-14 03:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 44.0h)2026-07-14 04:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 43.0h)2026-07-14 05:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 42.0h)2026-07-14 06:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 41.0h)2026-07-14 07:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 40.0h)2026-07-14 08:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 39.0h)2026-07-14 09:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 38.0h)2026-07-14 10:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 37.0h)2026-07-14 11:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 36.0h)2026-07-14 12:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 35.0h)2026-07-14 13:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 34.0h)2026-07-14 14:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 33.0h)2026-07-14 15:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 32.0h)2026-07-14 16:00 EDT: forecast 70.0°F (lead 31.0h)2026-07-14 17:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 30.0h)2026-07-14 18:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 29.0h)2026-07-14 19:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 28.0h)2026-07-14 20:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 27.0h)2026-07-14 21:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 26.0h)2026-07-14 22:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 25.0h)2026-07-14 23:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 24.0h)2026-07-15 00:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 23.0h)2026-07-15 01:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 22.0h)2026-07-15 02:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 21.0h)2026-07-15 03:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 20.0h)2026-07-15 04:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 19.0h)2026-07-15 05:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 18.0h)2026-07-15 06:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 17.0h)2026-07-15 07:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 16.0h)2026-07-15 08:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 15.0h)2026-07-15 09:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 14.0h)2026-07-15 10:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 13.0h)2026-07-15 11:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 12.0h)2026-07-15 12:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 11.0h)2026-07-15 13:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 10.0h)2026-07-15 14:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 9.0h)2026-07-15 15:00 EDT: forecast 68.0°F (lead 8.0h)2026-07-15 16:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 7.0h)2026-07-15 17:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 6.0h)2026-07-15 18:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 5.0h)2026-07-15 19:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 4.0h)2026-07-15 20:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 3.0h)2026-07-15 21:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 2.0h)2026-07-15 22:00 EDT: forecast 69.0°F (lead 1.0h) Lead time (hours before target)
Forecast Actual
Forecast error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Hover points for details.

-4°-2°+0°+2°+4° 45h36h27h19h10h1h Lead 45.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 44.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 43.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 42.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 41.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 40.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 39.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 38.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 37.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 36.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 35.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 34.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 33.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 32.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 31.0h: error -1.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 30.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 29.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 28.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 27.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 26.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 25.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 24.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 23.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 22.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 21.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 20.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 19.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 18.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 17.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 16.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 15.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 14.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 13.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 12.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 11.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 10.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 9.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 8.0h: error -3.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 7.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 6.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 5.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 4.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 3.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 2.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual)Lead 1.0h: error -2.0°F (forecast − actual) Lead time (hours before target)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT 45.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 44.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 43.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 42.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 41.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 40.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 39.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 38.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 37.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 36.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 35.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 34.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 33.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 32.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 31.0 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 30.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 29.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 28.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 27.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 26.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 25.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT 24.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT 23.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 01:00 EDT 22.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 02:00 EDT 21.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 03:00 EDT 20.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT 19.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT 18.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 06:00 EDT 17.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 07:00 EDT 16.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT 15.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT 14.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 10:00 EDT 13.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 11:00 EDT 12.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 12:00 EDT 11.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 13:00 EDT 10.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 14:00 EDT 9.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT 8.0 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0°
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT 7.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT 6.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 18:00 EDT 5.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 19:00 EDT 4.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 20:00 EDT 3.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 21:00 EDT 2.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 22:00 EDT 1.0 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0°

Hourly accuracy

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 00:00 EDT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 EDT 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 21:00 EDT 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 20:00 EDT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 19:00 EDT 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 18:00 EDT 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 EDT 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 13:00 EDT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 12:00 EDT 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 11:00 EDT 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 10:00 EDT 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 EDT 71.0°F 76.0°F -5.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 06:00 EDT 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT 71.0°F 76.0°F -5.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 03:00 EDT 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 02:00 EDT 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 24.0
2026-07-15 01:00 EDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 23.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 87.0°F 79.0°F +8.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 91.0°F 78.0°F +13.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 91.0°F 79.0°F +12.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 93.0°F 80.0°F +13.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 93.0°F 81.0°F +12.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 92.0°F 82.0°F +10.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 90.0°F 81.0°F +9.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 86.0°F 80.0°F +6.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 83.0°F 74.0°F +9.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 80.0°F 74.0°F +6.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-15 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 64.0°F 71.0°F -7.0°
2026-07-14 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0°