Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Louisiana · America/Chicago · 30.45, -91.19

Latest observation
74.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 UTC · Showers
Hour samples (7d)
6
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
0.67°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 12:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC 73.0°F 73.0°F 39 Scattered Showers
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 73.0°F 73.0°F 39 Scattered Showers
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 73.0°F 73.0°F 39 Scattered Showers
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 73.0°F 73.0°F 39 Scattered Showers
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 73.0°F 73.0°F 39 Scattered Showers
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC 73.0°F 73.0°F 100 Scattered Showers

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 12:00 UTC 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC

CollectedTempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC74.0°F35Isolated Storms
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC74.0°F35Isolated Storms
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC74.0°F35Isolated Storms
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC74.0°F100Isolated Storms
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC74.0°F100Isolated Storms

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 86.0°F 75.0°F +11.0° 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0°