Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Illinois · America/Chicago · 39.78, -89.65

Latest observation
79.0°F
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT
Hour samples (7d)
8
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
1.63°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 09:00 CDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Chicago).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 01:00 CDT 77.0°F 77.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 77.0°F 77.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 78.0°F 78.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 78.0°F 78.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 78.0°F 78.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 78.0°F 78.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 78.0°F 78.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 80.0°F 80.0°F 0 Sunny

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 07:00 CDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 01:00 CDT69.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT69.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT70.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT70.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT70.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT71.0°F0Patchy Fog

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.