Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Hawaii · Pacific/Honolulu · 21.31, -157.86

Latest observation
77.0°F
2026-07-14 09:00 HST
Hour samples (7d)
13
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
0.77°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 09:00 HST changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (Pacific/Honolulu).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-13 20:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F 13 Numerous Showers
2026-07-13 21:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F 13 Numerous Showers
2026-07-13 22:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F 13 Numerous Showers
2026-07-13 23:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F 13 Numerous Showers
2026-07-14 00:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F 13 Numerous Showers
2026-07-14 01:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F 13 Numerous Showers
2026-07-14 02:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F 13 Numerous Showers
2026-07-14 03:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F 13 Numerous Showers
2026-07-14 04:00 HST 78.0°F
2026-07-14 05:00 HST 78.0°F
2026-07-14 06:00 HST 78.0°F
2026-07-14 07:00 HST 78.0°F
2026-07-14 08:00 HST 78.0°F

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 09:00 HST 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 08:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 07:00 HST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 06:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 05:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 04:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 03:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 02:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 01:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 00:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 4.0
2026-07-13 23:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-13 22:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-13 21:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 07:00 HST

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-13 20:00 HST77.0°F13Showers
2026-07-13 21:00 HST77.0°F13Showers
2026-07-13 22:00 HST77.0°F13Showers
2026-07-13 23:00 HST77.0°F13Showers
2026-07-14 00:00 HST77.0°F13Showers
2026-07-14 01:00 HST77.0°F13Showers
2026-07-14 02:00 HST77.0°F13Showers
2026-07-14 03:00 HST77.0°F13Showers
2026-07-14 04:00 HST75.0°F
2026-07-14 05:00 HST75.0°F
2026-07-14 06:00 HST75.0°F

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-13 85.0°F 81.9°F +3.1° 76.0°F 75.6°F +0.4°