Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Hawaii · Pacific/Honolulu · 21.31, -157.86

Latest observation
75.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC · Mostly Clear
Hour samples (7d)
5
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
0.60°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC 76.0°F 76.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 76.0°F 76.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 76.0°F 76.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 76.0°F 76.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 76.0°F 76.0°F 0 Mostly Clear

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 09:00 UTC

CollectedTempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC77.0°F0Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC77.0°F0Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC77.0°F100Showers

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 84.0°F 77.0°F +7.0° 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-13 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0° 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0°