Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Hawaii · Pacific/Honolulu · 21.31, -157.86

Latest observation
73.0°F
2026-10-12 06:00 HST · temp 73.0°F · feels 73.0°F · RH 84% · dew 68.0°F · wind 5.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
185
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
1.35°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-10-12 06:00 HST changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (Pacific/Honolulu). Actual: 73.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

71°73°75°76°78° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 73.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-4°-2°+0°+2°+4° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-10-10 06:00 HST 48.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 07:00 HST 47.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 08:00 HST 46.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 09:00 HST 45.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 10:00 HST 44.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 11:00 HST 43.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 12:00 HST 42.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 13:00 HST 41.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 14:00 HST 40.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 15:00 HST 39.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 16:00 HST 38.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-10 17:00 HST 37.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 18:00 HST 36.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 19:00 HST 35.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 20:00 HST 34.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 21:00 HST 33.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 22:00 HST 32.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 23:00 HST 31.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 00:00 HST 30.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 01:00 HST 29.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 02:00 HST 28.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 03:00 HST 27.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 04:00 HST 26.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 05:00 HST 25.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 06:00 HST 24.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 07:00 HST 23.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 08:00 HST 22.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 09:00 HST 21.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 10:00 HST 20.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 11:00 HST 19.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 12:00 HST 18.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 13:00 HST 17.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 14:00 HST 16.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 15:00 HST 15.0 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-11 16:00 HST 14.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 17:00 HST 13.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 18:00 HST 12.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 19:00 HST 11.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 20:00 HST 10.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 21:00 HST 9.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 22:00 HST 8.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-11 23:00 HST 7.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-12 00:00 HST 6.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-12 01:00 HST 5.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-12 02:00 HST 4.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-12 03:00 HST 3.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-12 04:00 HST 2.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-12 05:00 HST 1.0 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-10-12 06:00 HST 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 05:00 HST 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 04:00 HST 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 03:00 HST 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 02:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 01:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-12 00:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 23:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 22:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 21:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 20:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 19:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 18:00 HST 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 17:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 16:00 HST 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 15:00 HST 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 14:00 HST 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 13:00 HST 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 12:00 HST 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 11:00 HST 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 10:00 HST 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 09:00 HST 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 08:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 07:00 HST 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 06:00 HST 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 05:00 HST 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 04:00 HST 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 03:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 02:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 01:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-11 00:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 23:00 HST 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 22:00 HST 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 21:00 HST 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 20:00 HST 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 19:00 HST 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 18:00 HST 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 17:00 HST 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 16:00 HST 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 15:00 HST 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 14:00 HST 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 13:00 HST 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 12:00 HST 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 11:00 HST 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 10:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 09:00 HST 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 08:00 HST 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 07:00 HST 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 06:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 05:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 04:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 03:00 HST 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 02:00 HST 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 01:00 HST 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-10 00:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 23:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 22:00 HST 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 21:00 HST 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 20:00 HST 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 19:00 HST 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 18:00 HST 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 17:00 HST 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 16:00 HST 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 15:00 HST 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 14:00 HST 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 13:00 HST 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 12:00 HST 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 11:00 HST 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 10:00 HST 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 09:00 HST 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 08:00 HST 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 07:00 HST 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 06:00 HST 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 05:00 HST 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 04:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 03:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 02:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 01:00 HST 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-09 00:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 23:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 22:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 21:00 HST 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 20:00 HST 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 19:00 HST 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 18:00 HST 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 17:00 HST 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 16:00 HST 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 15:00 HST 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 14:00 HST 85.0°F 80.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 13:00 HST 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 12:00 HST 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 11:00 HST 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 10:00 HST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 09:00 HST 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 08:00 HST 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 07:00 HST 76.0°F 81.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 06:00 HST 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 05:00 HST 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 04:00 HST 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 03:00 HST 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 02:00 HST 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 01:00 HST 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-10-08 00:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 23:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 22:00 HST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 21:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 20:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 19:00 HST 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 18:00 HST 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 17:00 HST 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 16:00 HST 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 15:00 HST 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 14:00 HST 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 13:00 HST 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 12:00 HST 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 11:00 HST 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 10:00 HST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 09:00 HST 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 08:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 07:00 HST 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 06:00 HST 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 05:00 HST 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 04:00 HST 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 03:00 HST 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 02:00 HST 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 01:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-07 00:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 23:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 22:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 21:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 20:00 HST 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 19:00 HST 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 18:00 HST 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 17:00 HST 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 16:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 15:00 HST 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 14:00 HST 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 13:00 HST 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 12:00 HST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 11:00 HST 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 10:00 HST 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 09:00 HST 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 08:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 07:00 HST 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 06:00 HST 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 05:00 HST 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 04:00 HST 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 03:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 02:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 01:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-06 00:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 23:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 22:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 21:00 HST 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 20:00 HST 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 19:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 18:00 HST 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 17:00 HST 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 16:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 15:00 HST 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 14:00 HST 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 13:00 HST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 12:00 HST 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 11:00 HST 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 10:00 HST 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 09:00 HST 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 08:00 HST 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 07:00 HST 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 06:00 HST 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 05:00 HST 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 04:00 HST 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 03:00 HST 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 02:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 01:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-05 00:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 23:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 22:00 HST 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 21:00 HST 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 20:00 HST 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 19:00 HST 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 18:00 HST 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 17:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 16:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 15:00 HST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-10-04 14:00 HST 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest forecast that already covers the local date (morning low and afternoon high), not the first overnight hour at the edge of the hourly window, vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-10-11 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-10 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-09 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-08 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-07 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-06 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-05 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-04 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-03 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-02 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-01 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0°
2026-09-30 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0°
2026-09-29 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0°
2026-09-28 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°