Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Washington · America/Los_Angeles · 47.04, -122.90

Latest observation
74.0°F
2026-07-15 22:00 PDT · temp 74.0°F · feels — · RH — · dew — · wind —
Hour samples (7d)
46
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
3.35°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 22:00 PDT 66.0°F 74.0°F -8.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 21:00 PDT 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 20:00 PDT 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 19:00 PDT 76.0°F 82.0°F -6.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 18:00 PDT 78.0°F 84.0°F -6.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 17:00 PDT 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 16:00 PDT 79.0°F 84.0°F -5.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 15:00 PDT 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 14:00 PDT 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 13:00 PDT 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 12:00 PDT 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 11:00 PDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 10:00 PDT 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 09:00 PDT 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 08:00 PDT 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 07:00 PDT 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 06:00 PDT 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 05:00 PDT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 04:00 PDT 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 03:00 PDT 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 02:00 PDT 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 01:00 PDT 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 00:00 PDT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 24.0
2026-07-14 23:00 PDT 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 22:00 PDT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 21:00 PDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 20:00 PDT 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 19:00 PDT 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 18:00 PDT 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 17:00 PDT 81.0°F 86.0°F -5.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 16:00 PDT 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 15:00 PDT 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 14:00 PDT 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 13:00 PDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 12:00 PDT 71.0°F 76.0°F -5.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 11:00 PDT 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 10:00 PDT 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 09:00 PDT 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 08:00 PDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 07:00 PDT 55.0°F 50.0°F +5.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 06:00 PDT 53.0°F 44.0°F +9.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT 53.0°F 47.0°F +6.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT 54.0°F 45.0°F +9.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT 55.0°F 48.0°F +7.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT 56.0°F 50.0°F +6.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT 57.0°F 53.0°F +4.0° 1.0

Daily forecast evolution — 2026-07-14

How the forecasted daily high and low for this local calendar day changed each time we re-collected, until the day ended. Lead time is hours until local midnight (end of day). Final actuals: high 86.0°F , low 44.0°F. · Clear date

Daily high forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily high at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual high.

60°67°74°81°88° 24h20h15h11h6h2h actual 86.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily high error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast high too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-24°-12°+0°+12°+24° 24h20h15h11h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Daily low forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily low at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual low.

42°48°53°59°64° 24h20h15h11h6h2h actual 44.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily low error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast low too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-18°-9°+0°+9°+18° 24h20h15h11h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 00:00 PDT 24.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 55.0°F 44.0°F +11.0°
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT 23.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 54.0°F 44.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT 22.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 54.0°F 44.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT 21.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 54.0°F 44.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT 20.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 54.0°F 44.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT 19.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 54.0°F 44.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 PDT 18.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 54.0°F 44.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 PDT 17.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 57.0°F 44.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 PDT 16.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 61.0°F 44.0°F +17.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 PDT 15.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 PDT 14.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 PDT 13.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 PDT 12.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 PDT 11.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 PDT 10.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 PDT 9.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 PDT 8.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 PDT 7.0 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 PDT 6.0 79.0°F 86.0°F -7.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 PDT 5.0 76.0°F 86.0°F -10.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 PDT 4.0 70.0°F 86.0°F -16.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 PDT 3.0 66.0°F 86.0°F -20.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 PDT 2.0 62.0°F 86.0°F -24.0° 62.0°F 44.0°F +18.0°

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 55.0°F 44.0°F +11.0°