Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Vermont · America/New_York · 44.26, -72.58

Latest observation
67.0°F
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT · temp 67.0°F · feels 67.0°F · RH 68% · dew 56.0°F · wind 7.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
47
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
5.11°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT 62.0°F 67.0°F -5.0° 47.0
2026-07-16 01:00 EDT 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 46.0
2026-07-16 00:00 EDT 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 22:00 EDT 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 21:00 EDT 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 20:00 EDT 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 19:00 EDT 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 18:00 EDT 81.0°F 74.0°F +7.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT 84.0°F 74.0°F +10.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT 84.0°F 75.0°F +9.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT 84.0°F 74.0°F +10.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 14:00 EDT 85.0°F 75.0°F +10.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 13:00 EDT 83.0°F 75.0°F +8.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 12:00 EDT 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 11:00 EDT 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 10:00 EDT 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 07:00 EDT 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 06:00 EDT 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT 69.0°F 75.0°F -6.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 03:00 EDT 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 24.0
2026-07-15 02:00 EDT 73.0°F 79.0°F -6.0° 23.0
2026-07-15 01:00 EDT 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 22.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 90.0°F 83.0°F +7.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 92.0°F 82.0°F +10.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 94.0°F 85.0°F +9.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 94.0°F 84.0°F +10.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 93.0°F 83.0°F +10.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 92.0°F 82.0°F +10.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 90.0°F 80.0°F +10.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 88.0°F 79.0°F +9.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 85.0°F 74.0°F +11.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 80.0°F 72.0°F +8.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 76.0°F 69.0°F +7.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 1.0

Daily forecast evolution — 2026-07-14

How the forecasted daily high and low for this local calendar day changed each time we re-collected, until the day ended. Lead time is hours until local midnight (end of day). Final actuals: high 85.0°F , low 63.0°F. · Clear date

Daily high forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily high at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual high.

76°82°87°93°98° 21h17h13h10h6h2h actual 85.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily high error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast high too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-12°-6°+0°+6°+12° 21h17h13h10h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Daily low forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily low at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual low.

61°66°71°75°80° 21h17h13h10h6h2h actual 63.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily low error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast low too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-16°-8°+0°+8°+16° 21h17h13h10h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 21.0 95.0°F 85.0°F +10.0° 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 20.0 96.0°F 85.0°F +11.0° 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 19.0 96.0°F 85.0°F +11.0° 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 18.0 96.0°F 85.0°F +11.0° 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 17.0 96.0°F 85.0°F +11.0° 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 16.0 96.0°F 85.0°F +11.0° 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 15.0 95.0°F 85.0°F +10.0° 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 14.0 95.0°F 85.0°F +10.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 13.0 92.0°F 85.0°F +7.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 12.0 92.0°F 85.0°F +7.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 11.0 92.0°F 85.0°F +7.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 10.0 92.0°F 85.0°F +7.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 9.0 92.0°F 85.0°F +7.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 8.0 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 7.0 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 6.0 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 5.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 4.0 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 3.0 79.0°F 85.0°F -6.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 2.0 78.0°F 85.0°F -7.0° 78.0°F 63.0°F +15.0°

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-15 86.0°F 79.0°F +7.0° 59.0°F 67.0°F -8.0°
2026-07-14 95.0°F 85.0°F +10.0° 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0°