Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · South Dakota · America/Chicago · 44.37, -100.35

Latest observation
76.0°F
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT · temp 76.0°F · feels 76.0°F · RH 67% · dew 64.0°F · wind 12.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
47
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
2.57°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 47.0
2026-07-16 00:00 CDT 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 23:00 CDT 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 21:00 CDT 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 20:00 CDT 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 19:00 CDT 98.0°F 94.0°F +4.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 18:00 CDT 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 17:00 CDT 98.0°F 97.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 13:00 CDT 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 12:00 CDT 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 11:00 CDT 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 10:00 CDT 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 09:00 CDT 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 06:00 CDT 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 05:00 CDT 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT 75.0°F 69.0°F +6.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 02:00 CDT 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 24.0
2026-07-15 01:00 CDT 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 23.0
2026-07-15 00:00 CDT 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT 97.0°F 92.0°F +5.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 19:00 CDT 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT 101.0°F 99.0°F +2.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT 102.0°F 99.0°F +3.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 101.0°F 99.0°F +2.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 92.0°F 92.0°F +0.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 1.0

Daily forecast evolution — 2026-07-14

How the forecasted daily high and low for this local calendar day changed each time we re-collected, until the day ended. Lead time is hours until local midnight (end of day). Final actuals: high 99.0°F , low 73.0°F. · Clear date

Daily high forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily high at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual high.

78°85°91°98°104° 22h18h14h10h6h2h actual 99.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily high error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast high too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-20°-10°+0°+10°+20° 22h18h14h10h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Daily low forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily low at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual low.

71°75°78°82°85° 22h18h14h10h6h2h actual 73.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily low error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast low too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-10°-5°+0°+5°+10° 22h18h14h10h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 22.0 102.0°F 99.0°F +3.0° 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 21.0 102.0°F 99.0°F +3.0° 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 20.0 102.0°F 99.0°F +3.0° 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 19.0 102.0°F 99.0°F +3.0° 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 18.0 102.0°F 99.0°F +3.0° 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 17.0 102.0°F 99.0°F +3.0° 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 16.0 102.0°F 99.0°F +3.0° 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 15.0 100.0°F 99.0°F +1.0° 83.0°F 73.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 14.0 100.0°F 99.0°F +1.0° 83.0°F 73.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 13.0 100.0°F 99.0°F +1.0° 83.0°F 73.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 12.0 100.0°F 99.0°F +1.0° 82.0°F 73.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 11.0 100.0°F 99.0°F +1.0° 82.0°F 73.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 10.0 100.0°F 99.0°F +1.0° 82.0°F 73.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 9.0 100.0°F 99.0°F +1.0° 82.0°F 73.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 8.0 101.0°F 99.0°F +2.0° 82.0°F 73.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT 7.0 101.0°F 99.0°F +2.0° 82.0°F 73.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT 6.0 99.0°F 99.0°F +0.0° 82.0°F 73.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 CDT 5.0 95.0°F 99.0°F -4.0° 82.0°F 73.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT 4.0 88.0°F 99.0°F -11.0° 82.0°F 73.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT 3.0 83.0°F 99.0°F -16.0° 81.0°F 73.0°F +8.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT 2.0 80.0°F 99.0°F -19.0° 80.0°F 73.0°F +7.0°

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-15 99.0°F 97.0°F +2.0° 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 102.0°F 99.0°F +3.0° 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0°