Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · New Mexico · America/Denver · 35.69, -105.94

Latest observation
64.0°F
2026-07-15 23:00 MDT · temp 64.0°F · feels — · RH — · dew — · wind —
Hour samples (7d)
47
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
3.28°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 23:00 MDT 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 47.0
2026-07-15 22:00 MDT 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 21:00 MDT 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 20:00 MDT 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 19:00 MDT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 18:00 MDT 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 17:00 MDT 75.0°F 69.0°F +6.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 16:00 MDT 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 15:00 MDT 77.0°F 84.0°F -7.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 14:00 MDT 76.0°F 84.0°F -8.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 13:00 MDT 75.0°F 82.0°F -7.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 12:00 MDT 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 11:00 MDT 71.0°F 78.0°F -7.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 10:00 MDT 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 09:00 MDT 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 08:00 MDT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 07:00 MDT 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 06:00 MDT 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 05:00 MDT 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 04:00 MDT 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 03:00 MDT 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 02:00 MDT 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 01:00 MDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 00:00 MDT 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 24.0
2026-07-14 23:00 MDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 22:00 MDT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 20:00 MDT 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 19:00 MDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 18:00 MDT 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 17:00 MDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 16:00 MDT 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 15:00 MDT 79.0°F 67.0°F +12.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT 80.0°F 85.0°F -5.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 13:00 MDT 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 12:00 MDT 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 11:00 MDT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 08:00 MDT 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 07:00 MDT 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 06:00 MDT 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 05:00 MDT 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 04:00 MDT 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 03:00 MDT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 02:00 MDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 01:00 MDT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 1.0

Daily forecast evolution — 2026-07-14

How the forecasted daily high and low for this local calendar day changed each time we re-collected, until the day ended. Lead time is hours until local midnight (end of day). Final actuals: high 85.0°F , low 65.0°F. · Clear date

Daily high forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily high at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual high.

67°72°77°82°87° 24h20h15h11h6h2h actual 85.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily high error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast high too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-16°-8°+0°+8°+16° 24h20h15h11h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Daily low forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily low at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual low.

58°62°65°69°72° 24h20h15h11h6h2h actual 65.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily low error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast low too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-6°-3°+0°+3°+6° 24h20h15h11h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 00:00 MDT 24.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0°
2026-07-14 01:00 MDT 23.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0°
2026-07-14 02:00 MDT 22.0 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 MDT 21.0 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 MDT 20.0 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 MDT 19.0 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 MDT 18.0 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 MDT 17.0 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 MDT 16.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT 15.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT 14.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 MDT 13.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 MDT 12.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 MDT 11.0 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT 10.0 79.0°F 85.0°F -6.0° 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 MDT 9.0 79.0°F 85.0°F -6.0° 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 MDT 8.0 76.0°F 85.0°F -9.0° 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 MDT 7.0 76.0°F 85.0°F -9.0° 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 MDT 6.0 74.0°F 85.0°F -11.0° 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 MDT 5.0 73.0°F 85.0°F -12.0° 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 MDT 4.0 71.0°F 85.0°F -14.0° 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT 3.0 70.0°F 85.0°F -15.0° 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 MDT 2.0 69.0°F 85.0°F -16.0° 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0°

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0°