Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.39 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 1.70 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.76 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 1.80 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 1.89 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 1.94 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 1.94 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 1.98 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.03 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 2.07 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.07 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.09 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.16 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.20 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.22 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.25 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.28 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.29 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 2.30 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.32 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.33 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.33 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.39 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.42 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.46 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.48 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.49 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.51 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.52 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.54 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.55 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.56 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.59 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.72 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.79 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.84 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.88 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.03 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 3.04 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.05 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.16 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.19 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.21 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 3.34 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.41 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.60 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 3.63 | 3.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.72 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.80 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.83 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 58.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 42.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |