Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 1.60 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.70 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.70 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 1.71 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.74 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.85 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 1.90 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.93 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 1.96 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 1.97 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 1.98 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 1.99 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 1.99 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.04 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.04 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.05 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.07 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.12 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.12 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.12 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.15 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.17 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.19 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.20 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.33 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 2.35 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.35 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 2.41 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.44 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.60 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.67 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.67 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.72 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.74 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.75 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.77 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.78 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.81 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.84 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.85 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.86 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.88 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.98 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.04 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.16 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.24 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.31 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 3.68 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 3.88 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 100.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |