Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
39583
1900032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.56°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-16 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 174 1.12 0.43 48.0
Jackson MS 174 1.33 0.66 48.0
Little Rock AR 174 1.60 -0.44 48.0
Hartford CT 174 1.61 0.36 48.0
Providence RI 174 1.64 -0.09 48.0
Augusta ME 174 1.70 0.40 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 174 1.71 -0.06 48.0
Concord NH 174 1.83 -0.03 48.0
Trenton NJ 174 1.95 0.39 48.0
Albany NY 174 1.97 0.01 48.0
Honolulu HI 174 1.98 -1.53 48.0
Boston MA 174 2.04 -0.32 48.0
Madison WI 174 2.04 0.55 48.0
Lansing MI 174 2.13 0.63 48.0
Salem OR 174 2.14 0.61 48.0
Raleigh NC 174 2.18 0.90 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 174 2.25 0.71 48.0
Richmond VA 174 2.25 0.32 48.0
Nashville TN 174 2.32 1.97 48.0
Harrisburg PA 174 2.34 0.08 48.0
Helena MT 174 2.37 0.37 48.0
Carson City NV 174 2.40 -0.65 48.0
Phoenix AZ 174 2.43 -0.11 48.0
Tallahassee FL 174 2.44 0.28 48.0
Des Moines IA 174 2.47 -0.02 48.0
Boise ID 174 2.49 0.08 48.0
Dover DE 174 2.52 0.05 48.0
Lincoln NE 174 2.53 0.53 48.0
Atlanta GA 174 2.55 1.72 48.0
Topeka KS 174 2.58 1.10 48.0
Jefferson City MO 174 2.59 2.10 48.0
Montpelier VT 174 2.64 1.64 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 174 2.65 -0.72 48.0
Saint Paul MN 174 2.66 -1.09 48.0
Olympia WA 174 2.70 0.07 48.0
Annapolis MD 174 2.80 0.55 48.0
Pierre SD 174 2.80 -0.48 48.0
Santa Fe NM 174 2.89 -2.24 48.0
Bismarck ND 174 2.92 -1.69 48.0
Denver CO 174 3.01 1.26 48.0
Columbia SC 174 3.20 2.16 48.0
Montgomery AL 174 3.36 0.06 48.0
Cheyenne WY 174 3.40 0.69 48.0
Sacramento CA 174 3.41 3.05 48.0
Juneau AK 174 3.57 -0.51 48.0
Springfield IL 174 3.62 2.79 48.0
Columbus OH 174 3.80 2.99 48.0
Charleston WV 174 3.94 2.06 48.0
Frankfort KY 174 4.26 3.79 48.0
Indianapolis IN 174 4.68 2.70 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 94.0°F 98.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 23:00 MDT Denver CO 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 23:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 80.0°F 74.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 23:00 MDT Helena MT 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Concord NH 57.0°F 54.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Albany NY 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 84.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 22:00 PDT Salem OR 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Providence RI 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0