Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 170 | 0.96 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.46 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 1.56 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.63 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 1.80 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.81 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 1.86 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 1.89 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 1.99 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.03 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.10 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.12 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.13 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.19 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.23 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.26 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.30 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.34 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.36 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.36 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.38 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.39 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.39 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.49 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.52 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.56 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.60 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.67 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.68 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.73 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.78 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.81 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.82 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.84 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.86 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.90 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.96 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.96 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.06 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 3.18 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 3.20 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.25 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.34 | -3.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.36 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.45 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.54 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.56 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.62 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.68 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 4.07 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 59.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 72.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |