Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
44033
2113632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
9550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-19 22:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 191 1.10 0.33 48.0
Jackson MS 191 1.27 0.77 48.0
Little Rock AR 191 1.59 -0.34 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 191 1.61 0.37 48.0
Honolulu HI 191 1.70 -0.48 48.0
Richmond VA 191 1.79 -0.46 48.0
Lansing MI 191 1.80 0.19 48.0
Providence RI 191 1.80 0.09 48.0
Raleigh NC 191 1.86 1.00 48.0
Albany NY 191 1.98 0.21 48.0
Hartford CT 191 2.04 0.50 48.0
Augusta ME 191 2.04 -0.13 48.0
Dover DE 191 2.07 -0.27 48.0
Madison WI 191 2.13 0.57 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 191 2.19 0.15 48.0
Harrisburg PA 191 2.21 -0.28 48.0
Boston MA 191 2.23 0.34 48.0
Salem OR 191 2.24 0.95 48.0
Concord NH 191 2.27 -0.80 48.0
Trenton NJ 191 2.29 0.71 48.0
Boise ID 191 2.31 -0.78 48.0
Sacramento CA 191 2.32 0.72 48.0
Annapolis MD 191 2.34 -0.02 48.0
Saint Paul MN 191 2.39 -0.90 48.0
Nashville TN 191 2.39 2.05 48.0
Helena MT 191 2.58 -0.40 48.0
Tallahassee FL 191 2.68 0.89 48.0
Carson City NV 191 2.68 -1.26 48.0
Pierre SD 191 2.72 -1.53 48.0
Olympia WA 191 2.73 -0.26 48.0
Atlanta GA 191 2.75 2.21 48.0
Des Moines IA 191 2.82 0.12 48.0
Montpelier VT 191 2.82 0.69 48.0
Lincoln NE 191 2.83 0.71 48.0
Topeka KS 191 2.91 1.89 48.0
Phoenix AZ 191 2.94 -1.84 48.0
Charleston WV 191 2.94 1.24 48.0
Santa Fe NM 191 3.15 -1.75 48.0
Jefferson City MO 191 3.16 2.78 48.0
Bismarck ND 191 3.19 -2.39 48.0
Columbus OH 191 3.20 1.75 48.0
Juneau AK 191 3.25 0.58 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 191 3.32 -1.64 48.0
Columbia SC 191 3.36 2.92 48.0
Denver CO 191 3.37 1.41 48.0
Montgomery AL 191 3.49 1.31 48.0
Cheyenne WY 191 3.81 0.63 48.0
Indianapolis IN 191 3.91 3.21 48.0
Springfield IL 191 4.06 3.54 48.0
Frankfort KY 191 4.37 4.04 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Montgomery AL 97.0°F 99.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 14:00 AKDT Juneau AK 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 MST Phoenix AZ 108.0°F 107.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Little Rock AR 102.0°F 106.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 PDT Sacramento CA 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 MDT Denver CO 86.0°F 89.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Hartford CT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Dover DE 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 92.0°F 81.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Atlanta GA 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 12:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 MDT Boise ID 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Springfield IL 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Des Moines IA 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Frankfort KY 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 96.0°F 96.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Augusta ME 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Annapolis MD 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Boston MA 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Lansing MI 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Jackson MS 99.0°F 98.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 MDT Helena MT 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Lincoln NE 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 PDT Carson City NV 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Concord NH 79.0°F 84.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Trenton NJ 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 90.0°F 93.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Albany NY 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Raleigh NC 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Bismarck ND 80.0°F 87.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Columbus OH 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 105.0°F 104.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 PDT Salem OR 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Providence RI 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 EDT Columbia SC 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0