Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.31 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.37 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 1.59 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 1.66 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.74 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.74 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 1.76 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 1.87 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.03 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.06 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.13 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.28 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.28 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.32 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.32 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.36 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.37 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.48 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.49 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.51 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.55 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.56 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.61 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.62 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.64 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.71 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.74 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.75 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.79 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.81 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.86 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.89 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.91 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.95 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.00 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 3.03 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.05 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.09 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 3.11 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.13 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.17 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.29 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.30 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.38 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.47 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 3.68 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.75 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 3.91 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 4.30 | -3.61 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |