Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.18 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.30 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.48 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 1.56 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 1.59 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 1.83 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 1.86 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 1.90 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 1.90 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.94 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 1.99 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.05 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.11 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.12 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.13 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.20 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.20 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.32 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.33 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.37 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.39 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.40 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.42 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.43 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.45 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.47 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.56 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.57 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.59 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.66 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.68 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 2.71 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.77 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.79 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.80 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.88 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.92 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.96 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.03 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 3.18 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.24 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.50 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.51 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 3.53 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 4.05 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 4.12 | 3.53 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 4.12 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 4.20 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 4.62 | 4.21 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 4.79 | 3.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 101.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 71.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |