Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
39133
1878432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.57°
9450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-15 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 189 1.12 0.50 48.0
Jackson MS 189 1.53 0.90 48.0
Providence RI 189 1.66 -0.02 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 1.68 0.02 48.0
Hartford CT 189 1.89 0.74 48.0
Salem OR 189 1.89 0.28 48.0
Concord NH 189 1.93 -0.44 48.0
Albany NY 189 1.96 0.06 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 1.99 -1.92 48.0
Augusta ME 189 1.99 0.45 48.0
Madison WI 189 1.99 0.47 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 2.08 0.20 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.11 -0.59 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 2.15 0.79 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 2.15 0.61 48.0
Lansing MI 189 2.17 0.17 48.0
Richmond VA 189 2.23 0.39 48.0
Helena MT 189 2.30 0.44 48.0
Topeka KS 189 2.32 0.95 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 2.37 -0.10 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 2.39 0.25 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 2.41 -0.16 48.0
Boise ID 189 2.44 0.14 48.0
Dover DE 189 2.45 0.26 48.0
Nashville TN 189 2.45 2.11 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 2.47 -0.62 48.0
Carson City NV 189 2.52 -0.89 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.53 1.77 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 2.56 0.58 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 2.57 2.04 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 2.61 1.54 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 2.69 0.85 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 2.70 -0.66 48.0
Olympia WA 189 2.71 -0.12 48.0
Denver CO 189 2.79 0.85 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 2.80 0.92 48.0
Columbia SC 189 2.83 1.71 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 2.84 -1.96 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 2.98 1.37 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 3.13 -1.26 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 3.23 -0.35 48.0
Springfield IL 189 3.23 2.28 48.0
Pierre SD 189 3.24 0.31 48.0
Juneau AK 189 3.27 -0.14 48.0
Cheyenne WY 189 3.28 0.55 48.0
Columbus OH 189 3.81 2.68 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 3.86 3.27 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 3.91 3.65 48.0
Charleston WV 189 3.92 2.07 48.0
Indianapolis IN 189 4.31 1.71 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 96.0°F 88.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 100.0°F 103.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 101.0°F 99.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 14:00 MDT Denver CO 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Dover DE 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 14:00 MDT Boise ID 83.0°F 89.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 95.0°F 84.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 91.0°F 82.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 96.0°F 86.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 94.0°F 91.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 98.0°F 95.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Boston MA 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 97.0°F 92.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 14:00 MDT Helena MT 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 89.0°F 85.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Concord NH 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Albany NY 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 13:00 PDT Salem OR 77.0°F 66.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Providence RI 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 97.0°F 92.0°F +5.0° 48.0