Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.58 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.65 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 1.75 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.86 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 1.86 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.86 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 1.94 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.98 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.03 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.04 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.12 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.13 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.21 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.21 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.22 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.22 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.26 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.27 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.31 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.34 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.34 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.36 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.39 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.44 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.58 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.59 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.66 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.69 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.70 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.77 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.85 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.85 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.91 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.91 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.94 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.98 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.05 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.06 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.14 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.18 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.23 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.29 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 3.31 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 3.33 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.35 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.45 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 3.49 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.54 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.65 | -2.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 68.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 104.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 77.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 74.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 92.0°F | 96.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |