Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.28 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.33 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 1.56 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 1.66 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 1.67 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 1.74 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.75 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 1.76 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 1.82 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.97 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.00 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.05 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.24 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.25 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.26 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.30 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.38 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.46 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.47 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.48 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.50 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.57 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.60 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.60 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.62 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.63 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.69 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.72 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.75 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.80 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.81 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.83 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.92 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.93 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.95 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.97 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.97 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 2.99 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 3.01 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.07 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.10 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.13 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.22 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.26 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 3.43 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.48 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.70 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 3.72 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 3.87 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 4.31 | -3.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |