Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 190 | 1.70 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 1.77 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 1.77 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 1.95 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 2.02 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.13 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.17 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.19 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.22 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.24 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.24 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.29 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.31 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.32 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.35 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.37 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.37 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.42 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.43 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.46 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.48 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.49 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.49 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.56 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.59 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.59 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.59 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.64 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.65 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.65 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.65 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.68 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.71 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.77 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.82 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.84 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.88 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.89 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.92 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.96 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.00 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 3.05 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.07 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.13 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.32 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.33 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 3.39 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.56 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.86 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.97 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 72.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 62.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 73.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |