Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 1.66 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 1.72 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 1.91 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 1.97 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 2.04 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.11 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.17 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.20 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.21 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.22 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.24 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.25 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.27 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.27 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.42 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.42 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.44 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.46 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.51 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.52 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.55 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.56 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.58 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.58 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.66 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.67 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.69 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.70 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.70 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.72 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.74 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.76 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.77 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.78 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.81 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.88 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.92 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.93 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.94 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.01 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 3.06 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.09 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.17 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.18 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.34 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.44 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.45 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.47 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 4.11 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 4.41 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 80.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 74.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |