Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
77833
3736032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.59°
8550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-17 02:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 171 1.56 0.74 48.0
Richmond VA 171 1.64 -0.09 48.0
Trenton NJ 171 1.78 -0.72 48.0
Albany NY 171 1.85 -0.09 48.0
Indianapolis IN 171 1.91 -0.49 48.0
Providence RI 171 1.94 -0.92 48.0
Salem OR 171 1.98 -0.12 48.0
Augusta ME 171 1.99 0.41 48.0
Honolulu HI 171 2.08 -1.85 48.0
Charleston WV 171 2.08 0.97 48.0
Concord NH 171 2.11 -0.22 48.0
Annapolis MD 171 2.18 -1.01 48.0
Boston MA 171 2.18 -0.58 48.0
Raleigh NC 171 2.26 -1.51 48.0
Hartford CT 171 2.27 0.37 48.0
Columbia SC 171 2.27 -1.07 48.0
Jackson MS 171 2.28 0.71 48.0
Saint Paul MN 171 2.29 -0.89 48.0
Little Rock AR 171 2.31 0.79 48.0
Frankfort KY 171 2.37 -0.24 48.0
Des Moines IA 171 2.38 1.57 48.0
Columbus OH 171 2.38 0.36 48.0
Sacramento CA 171 2.40 1.39 48.0
Jefferson City MO 171 2.40 0.44 48.0
Nashville TN 171 2.40 0.03 48.0
Dover DE 171 2.42 -1.46 48.0
Boise ID 171 2.42 -1.82 48.0
Montgomery AL 171 2.44 -0.39 48.0
Tallahassee FL 171 2.46 0.60 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 171 2.48 0.69 48.0
Phoenix AZ 171 2.56 -0.62 48.0
Lansing MI 171 2.57 0.71 48.0
Atlanta GA 171 2.61 1.32 48.0
Madison WI 171 2.67 0.48 48.0
Harrisburg PA 171 2.69 -2.00 48.0
Olympia WA 171 2.71 1.32 48.0
Bismarck ND 171 2.74 0.04 48.0
Pierre SD 171 2.80 1.36 48.0
Santa Fe NM 171 2.88 0.09 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 171 2.88 0.30 48.0
Cheyenne WY 171 2.89 0.51 48.0
Helena MT 171 3.05 -0.73 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 171 3.12 -0.81 48.0
Montpelier VT 171 3.43 1.35 48.0
Springfield IL 171 3.52 2.22 48.0
Denver CO 171 3.54 0.14 48.0
Carson City NV 171 3.57 -0.68 48.0
Topeka KS 171 3.98 1.55 48.0
Lincoln NE 171 4.54 3.60 48.0
Juneau AK 171 5.32 2.57 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 18:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 19:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 82.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Little Rock AR 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 19:00 PDT Sacramento CA 73.0°F 66.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 20:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Hartford CT 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Dover DE 66.0°F 73.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Atlanta GA 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 16:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 20:00 MDT Boise ID 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Springfield IL 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Des Moines IA 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Frankfort KY 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Augusta ME 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Lansing MI 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 20:00 MDT Helena MT 56.0°F 60.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Lincoln NE 75.0°F 68.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 19:00 PDT Carson City NV 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Concord NH 65.0°F 70.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Trenton NJ 68.0°F 75.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 20:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Raleigh NC 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Bismarck ND 62.0°F 56.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Columbus OH 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 19:00 PDT Salem OR 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 71.0°F 79.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0