Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.61 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.64 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 1.78 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.82 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 1.83 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.89 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 1.90 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 1.91 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.94 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 1.95 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.96 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 1.97 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 1.97 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.98 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.08 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.18 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.20 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.21 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.23 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.32 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.34 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.39 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.40 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.46 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.55 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.61 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.64 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.66 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.75 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.78 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.79 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.82 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.83 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.84 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.89 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.90 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 3.01 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.03 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.12 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.13 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.15 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.21 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.28 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.31 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.41 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.47 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.55 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 3.61 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.69 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.87 | -2.97 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 39.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 61.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |