Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 182 | 0.95 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.64 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.66 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 1.68 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 1.69 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.74 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 1.87 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.92 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 1.92 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.98 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 1.99 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.05 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.10 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.20 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.20 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.21 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.28 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.35 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.36 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.38 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.46 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.46 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.47 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.49 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.50 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.52 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.55 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.55 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.62 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.66 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.67 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.79 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.82 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.83 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.84 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.86 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.89 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.90 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.92 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 3.00 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.28 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.31 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.34 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.51 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.54 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.65 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.65 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.67 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.91 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 4.22 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 49.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 48.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 45.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |