Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.17 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.49 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.54 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.66 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 1.88 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 1.99 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.99 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.02 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.06 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.11 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.11 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.15 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.16 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.17 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.17 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.22 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.22 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.23 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.24 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.24 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.31 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.31 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.33 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.41 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.41 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.42 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.45 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.56 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.58 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.61 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.72 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.82 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.84 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.85 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.95 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.96 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.02 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 3.03 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.11 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.12 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.24 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 3.24 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.26 | -3.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 3.30 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.34 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.43 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.76 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.78 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.79 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.98 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 76.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |