Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.26 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.60 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 1.80 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.84 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 1.88 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.89 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 1.90 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.97 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.09 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.09 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.09 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.14 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.18 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.19 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.24 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.26 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.27 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.27 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.27 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.27 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.28 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.34 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.45 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.48 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.49 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.58 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.59 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.63 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.66 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.66 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.82 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.85 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.86 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.90 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.91 | -2.44 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.92 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.97 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.99 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.99 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.04 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 3.14 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.15 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 3.18 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.34 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.39 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 3.39 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.52 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 3.57 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.66 | 3.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.66 | -2.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 40.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |