Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.55 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.74 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.74 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 1.78 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.78 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 1.83 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.91 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 1.92 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.98 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.03 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.03 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.05 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.06 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.13 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.17 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.22 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.22 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.24 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.27 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.29 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.37 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.38 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.38 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.40 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.41 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.43 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.52 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.56 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.58 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.65 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.67 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.74 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.76 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.81 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.86 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.89 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.92 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.98 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 3.09 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 3.12 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.12 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.22 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.33 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.34 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.34 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.67 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 4.12 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 4.22 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 4.41 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 4.78 | 3.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 98.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 67.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |