Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.18 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.20 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.53 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 1.72 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 1.73 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 1.74 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.77 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 1.82 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 1.97 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.01 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.02 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.04 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.06 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.15 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.16 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.17 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.23 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.29 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.35 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.38 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.46 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.47 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.47 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.48 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.51 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.52 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.55 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.57 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.58 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.58 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.66 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.66 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.72 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 2.80 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.82 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.96 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 3.01 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.09 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.14 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.28 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 3.29 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.41 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.45 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.51 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 3.71 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.76 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 3.80 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.95 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 4.46 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 4.49 | 3.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 99.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 110.0°F | 111.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 83.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 80.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 103.0°F | 107.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |