Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.70 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.74 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 1.78 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.83 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 1.85 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.89 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.94 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.95 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 1.95 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.98 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 2.06 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.09 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.12 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.13 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.14 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.16 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.22 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.24 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.29 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.31 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.33 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.42 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.45 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.47 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.51 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.51 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.56 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.57 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.57 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.61 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.61 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 2.61 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.65 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.68 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.69 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.72 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.73 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.81 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.88 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.95 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.99 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.02 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.09 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.15 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.21 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 3.22 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.23 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 3.51 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.94 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |