Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
80083
3844032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
9600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-18 23:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 192 1.55 0.79 48.0
Richmond VA 192 1.69 -0.25 48.0
Indianapolis IN 192 1.86 -0.41 48.0
Charleston WV 192 1.87 0.95 48.0
Augusta ME 192 1.94 0.23 48.0
Honolulu HI 192 2.01 -1.81 48.0
Trenton NJ 192 2.05 -0.97 48.0
Salem OR 192 2.05 0.62 48.0
Little Rock AR 192 2.10 0.89 48.0
Providence RI 192 2.14 -1.29 48.0
Jackson MS 192 2.15 0.66 48.0
Nashville TN 192 2.15 0.52 48.0
Montgomery AL 192 2.16 -0.20 48.0
Frankfort KY 192 2.19 -0.27 48.0
Tallahassee FL 192 2.21 0.18 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 192 2.21 0.55 48.0
Columbia SC 192 2.22 -0.73 48.0
Concord NH 192 2.23 -0.58 48.0
Albany NY 192 2.28 -0.13 48.0
Jefferson City MO 192 2.29 0.02 48.0
Sacramento CA 192 2.39 2.03 48.0
Hartford CT 192 2.40 0.04 48.0
Annapolis MD 192 2.41 -1.14 48.0
Boston MA 192 2.43 -1.09 48.0
Columbus OH 192 2.49 0.55 48.0
Saint Paul MN 192 2.54 -0.12 48.0
Des Moines IA 192 2.60 1.88 48.0
Boise ID 192 2.61 -1.77 48.0
Dover DE 192 2.66 -1.64 48.0
Raleigh NC 192 2.69 -1.90 48.0
Atlanta GA 192 2.70 1.64 48.0
Santa Fe NM 192 2.78 0.22 48.0
Harrisburg PA 192 2.78 -1.73 48.0
Bismarck ND 192 2.83 -0.41 48.0
Helena MT 192 2.86 -0.51 48.0
Madison WI 192 2.89 1.39 48.0
Phoenix AZ 192 2.92 0.09 48.0
Olympia WA 192 2.92 1.67 48.0
Lansing MI 192 2.94 1.45 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 192 3.02 0.64 48.0
Pierre SD 192 3.09 1.76 48.0
Cheyenne WY 192 3.09 -0.18 48.0
Springfield IL 192 3.22 1.47 48.0
Montpelier VT 192 3.22 1.08 48.0
Carson City NV 192 3.28 -0.48 48.0
Denver CO 192 3.43 -0.62 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 192 3.95 -1.71 48.0
Topeka KS 192 4.07 0.54 48.0
Lincoln NE 192 4.39 3.34 48.0
Juneau AK 192 4.48 1.97 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Montgomery AL 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 15:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 50.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 16:00 MST Phoenix AZ 99.0°F 99.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Little Rock AR 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 16:00 PDT Sacramento CA 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 17:00 MDT Denver CO 78.0°F 70.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Hartford CT 69.0°F 75.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Dover DE 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Atlanta GA 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 13:00 HST Honolulu HI 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 17:00 MDT Boise ID 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Springfield IL 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Topeka KS 88.0°F 94.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Frankfort KY 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Boston MA 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Lansing MI 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Jackson MS 92.0°F 94.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 17:00 MDT Helena MT 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Lincoln NE 86.0°F 93.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 16:00 PDT Carson City NV 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 17:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Raleigh NC 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Bismarck ND 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Columbus OH 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 16:00 PDT Salem OR 74.0°F 68.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Providence RI 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 EDT Columbia SC 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 48.0