Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.27 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.56 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.70 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.76 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 1.81 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 1.84 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.84 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 1.90 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.91 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.95 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 1.96 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 1.98 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.03 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.08 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.13 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.16 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.22 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.25 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.29 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.32 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.38 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.39 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.44 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.46 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.46 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.47 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.48 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.50 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.57 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.58 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.70 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.71 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.74 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.76 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.77 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.81 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.81 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.83 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.85 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.88 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.89 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.13 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.20 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 3.32 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.36 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.37 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.48 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.52 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.61 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.74 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 67.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |