Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.55 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.67 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.72 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.73 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 1.84 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 1.89 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 1.94 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.02 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 2.02 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.05 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.09 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.10 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.20 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.23 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.26 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.28 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.28 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.28 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.33 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.34 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.35 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.41 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.42 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.48 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.48 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.54 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.55 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.58 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.63 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.65 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.73 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.76 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.78 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.80 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.84 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.87 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.90 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.92 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.93 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.94 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.94 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.99 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.16 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.67 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.68 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 3.72 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.73 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.78 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 3.85 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 4.69 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 102.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |