Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
49733
2387232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.51°
9250 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-24 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Juneau AK 185 1.52 0.41 48.0
Austin TX 185 1.70 1.31 48.0
Honolulu HI 185 1.85 -0.97 48.0
Richmond VA 185 1.88 -0.01 48.0
Charleston WV 185 1.88 0.22 48.0
Saint Paul MN 185 1.89 -0.24 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 1.91 0.69 48.0
Raleigh NC 185 1.91 0.65 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 1.94 1.06 48.0
Jackson MS 185 1.95 0.79 48.0
Boise ID 185 1.96 -0.77 48.0
Lansing MI 185 2.01 0.59 48.0
Columbus OH 185 2.11 -1.36 48.0
Indianapolis IN 185 2.13 -1.11 48.0
Dover DE 185 2.17 -0.26 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 2.26 -1.52 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 2.28 2.06 48.0
Albany NY 185 2.30 -0.06 48.0
Nashville TN 185 2.30 1.01 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 2.32 0.07 48.0
Harrisburg PA 185 2.33 1.34 48.0
Augusta ME 185 2.35 -1.60 48.0
Providence RI 185 2.35 0.84 48.0
Trenton NJ 185 2.37 1.41 48.0
Springfield IL 185 2.44 1.85 48.0
Jefferson City MO 185 2.46 2.16 48.0
Salem OR 185 2.49 -0.30 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.52 1.18 48.0
Madison WI 185 2.52 1.66 48.0
Columbia SC 185 2.61 0.73 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.63 2.10 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 2.70 1.17 48.0
Pierre SD 185 2.70 -0.23 48.0
Lincoln NE 185 2.74 1.37 48.0
Montgomery AL 185 2.76 -0.29 48.0
Hartford CT 185 2.79 0.45 48.0
Topeka KS 185 2.81 2.25 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 2.81 0.74 48.0
Helena MT 185 2.90 -1.06 48.0
Carson City NV 185 2.99 -2.22 48.0
Little Rock AR 185 3.01 -0.86 48.0
Santa Fe NM 185 3.03 0.64 48.0
Bismarck ND 185 3.04 -1.45 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 185 3.04 0.89 48.0
Concord NH 185 3.08 -1.44 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 3.30 -1.09 48.0
Denver CO 185 3.47 0.25 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 3.51 0.42 48.0
Olympia WA 185 3.76 -1.72 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 3.91 -1.67 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 71.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 MDT Denver CO 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 MDT Boise ID 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Boston MA 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 86.0°F 76.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 MDT Helena MT 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Concord NH 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Albany NY 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 PDT Salem OR 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Providence RI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 12:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0