Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.54 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.59 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 1.68 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.89 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 1.90 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.95 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.01 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.03 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.03 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.17 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.20 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.21 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.22 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.24 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.25 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.26 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.28 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.29 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.31 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.31 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.33 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.34 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.34 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.36 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.39 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.40 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.42 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.44 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.45 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.48 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.57 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.58 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.60 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.60 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.62 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.64 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.66 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.78 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.82 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.82 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.83 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.88 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.96 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.69 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.73 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.75 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.86 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 4.15 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 4.15 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 4.99 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 62.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 99.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |