Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.55 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.58 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 1.66 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.90 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 1.96 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.99 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 1.99 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.02 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.04 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.15 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.19 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.20 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.21 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.23 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.23 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.26 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.27 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.29 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.30 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.32 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.32 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.35 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.36 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.37 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.38 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.41 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.42 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.46 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.52 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.52 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.55 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.59 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.63 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.64 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.64 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.64 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.64 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.81 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.82 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.84 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 2.84 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.97 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.01 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.65 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.71 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.73 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.85 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 4.10 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 4.17 | 3.20 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 4.91 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 80.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 83.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |