Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
41383
1986432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
9300 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-17 17:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 186 1.20 0.53 48.0
Jackson MS 186 1.27 0.58 48.0
Little Rock AR 186 1.48 -0.73 48.0
Providence RI 186 1.59 0.14 48.0
Hartford CT 186 1.62 0.62 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 186 1.78 0.23 48.0
Honolulu HI 186 1.90 -1.05 48.0
Madison WI 186 1.96 0.20 48.0
Lansing MI 186 1.99 0.19 48.0
Concord NH 186 1.99 -0.10 48.0
Augusta ME 186 2.03 0.32 48.0
Albany NY 186 2.03 0.26 48.0
Nashville TN 186 2.04 1.63 48.0
Boston MA 186 2.06 -0.04 48.0
Raleigh NC 186 2.10 0.85 48.0
Salem OR 186 2.18 1.09 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 186 2.20 0.52 48.0
Helena MT 186 2.30 0.19 48.0
Richmond VA 186 2.30 0.65 48.0
Boise ID 186 2.33 -0.46 48.0
Tallahassee FL 186 2.37 0.10 48.0
Atlanta GA 186 2.38 1.62 48.0
Carson City NV 186 2.44 -0.78 48.0
Lincoln NE 186 2.46 0.58 48.0
Pierre SD 186 2.46 -0.96 48.0
Saint Paul MN 186 2.49 -1.14 48.0
Des Moines IA 186 2.52 0.36 48.0
Olympia WA 186 2.53 0.31 48.0
Dover DE 186 2.55 0.59 48.0
Trenton NJ 186 2.56 1.22 48.0
Topeka KS 186 2.69 1.37 48.0
Jefferson City MO 186 2.75 2.22 48.0
Montpelier VT 186 2.77 0.99 48.0
Sacramento CA 186 2.83 1.78 48.0
Phoenix AZ 186 2.84 -0.84 48.0
Harrisburg PA 186 2.88 0.82 48.0
Bismarck ND 186 2.96 -1.68 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 186 2.98 -1.17 48.0
Denver CO 186 3.04 1.15 48.0
Annapolis MD 186 3.04 0.74 48.0
Santa Fe NM 186 3.23 -2.18 48.0
Montgomery AL 186 3.41 0.55 48.0
Columbia SC 186 3.46 2.80 48.0
Cheyenne WY 186 3.61 0.09 48.0
Juneau AK 186 3.83 -0.33 48.0
Columbus OH 186 3.94 3.24 48.0
Charleston WV 186 3.96 2.72 48.0
Springfield IL 186 4.01 3.27 48.0
Indianapolis IN 186 4.57 3.45 48.0
Frankfort KY 186 4.58 4.19 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Montgomery AL 96.0°F 92.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 09:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 10:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 101.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Little Rock AR 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 10:00 PDT Sacramento CA 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 11:00 MDT Denver CO 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 72.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Dover DE 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Atlanta GA 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 07:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 11:00 MDT Boise ID 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Springfield IL 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Frankfort KY 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Augusta ME 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Annapolis MD 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Boston MA 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Lansing MI 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Jackson MS 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 11:00 MDT Helena MT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Lincoln NE 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 10:00 PDT Carson City NV 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Concord NH 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Trenton NJ 84.0°F 78.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 11:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Albany NY 78.0°F 73.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Raleigh NC 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Bismarck ND 75.0°F 83.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 12:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 10:00 PDT Salem OR 69.0°F 62.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Providence RI 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 EDT Columbia SC 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 48.0