Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 176 | 1.55 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.59 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.70 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 1.74 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.88 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.89 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 1.92 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.97 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.97 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.01 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.03 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.04 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.06 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.11 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.16 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.24 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.24 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.25 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.27 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.38 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.43 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.44 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.44 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.49 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.49 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.61 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.62 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.64 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 2.64 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.68 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.72 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.75 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.76 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.80 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.80 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.81 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.82 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.83 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.85 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.86 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.91 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.93 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.95 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.13 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.25 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.36 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.39 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.49 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 3.52 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.90 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 100.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |