Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
59233
2843232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.46°
9150 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-01 14:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 183 1.52 -0.46 48.0
Indianapolis IN 183 1.72 -0.81 48.0
Providence RI 183 1.73 -0.50 48.0
Columbus OH 183 1.80 -0.99 48.0
Salem OR 183 1.84 0.25 48.0
Hartford CT 183 1.85 -0.51 48.0
Topeka KS 183 1.86 -0.27 48.0
Jackson MS 183 1.92 0.30 48.0
Boston MA 183 2.01 -0.46 48.0
Columbia SC 183 2.01 -0.12 48.0
Concord NH 183 2.02 0.09 48.0
Nashville TN 183 2.03 0.98 48.0
Raleigh NC 183 2.04 0.41 48.0
Sacramento CA 183 2.10 1.42 48.0
Saint Paul MN 183 2.15 0.61 48.0
Annapolis MD 183 2.17 0.60 48.0
Jefferson City MO 183 2.18 1.30 48.0
Honolulu HI 183 2.19 -2.09 48.0
Charleston WV 183 2.20 1.82 48.0
Frankfort KY 183 2.21 1.59 48.0
Des Moines IA 183 2.25 1.80 48.0
Juneau AK 183 2.34 1.46 48.0
Bismarck ND 183 2.36 -0.32 48.0
Tallahassee FL 183 2.37 -0.68 48.0
Lansing MI 183 2.37 1.33 48.0
Atlanta GA 183 2.43 0.58 48.0
Albany NY 183 2.47 0.47 48.0
Pierre SD 183 2.49 1.50 48.0
Springfield IL 183 2.55 1.89 48.0
Dover DE 183 2.56 -0.09 48.0
Augusta ME 183 2.57 0.48 48.0
Trenton NJ 183 2.57 1.95 48.0
Montpelier VT 183 2.59 1.42 48.0
Little Rock AR 183 2.61 0.85 48.0
Austin TX 183 2.63 2.08 48.0
Madison WI 183 2.73 1.04 48.0
Helena MT 183 2.77 -0.48 48.0
Carson City NV 183 2.77 -0.11 48.0
Montgomery AL 183 2.82 -1.75 48.0
Olympia WA 183 2.92 -0.78 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 183 2.93 -0.04 48.0
Boise ID 183 3.04 -2.12 48.0
Cheyenne WY 183 3.12 -0.17 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 183 3.15 0.57 48.0
Lincoln NE 183 3.15 2.08 48.0
Phoenix AZ 183 3.23 -1.37 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 183 3.27 0.15 48.0
Harrisburg PA 183 3.42 -0.77 48.0
Santa Fe NM 183 3.46 -1.74 48.0
Denver CO 183 3.51 2.07 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Montgomery AL 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 06:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 07:00 MST Phoenix AZ 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Little Rock AR 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 07:00 PDT Sacramento CA 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 08:00 MDT Denver CO 65.0°F 60.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Hartford CT 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Dover DE 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 04:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 08:00 MDT Boise ID 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Springfield IL 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Des Moines IA 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Topeka KS 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Frankfort KY 84.0°F 78.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Annapolis MD 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Lansing MI 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Jackson MS 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 08:00 MDT Helena MT 57.0°F 49.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Lincoln NE 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 07:00 PDT Carson City NV 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Concord NH 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Trenton NJ 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 08:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 64.0°F 60.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Albany NY 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Raleigh NC 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Bismarck ND 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Columbus OH 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 07:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 EDT Columbia SC 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0