Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.62 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 1.76 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.81 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 1.93 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.02 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.04 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.04 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.11 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.11 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 2.13 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.13 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.14 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.17 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.18 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.20 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.26 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.32 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.38 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.39 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.45 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.47 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.50 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.50 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.54 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.61 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.67 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.67 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.68 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.70 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.72 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.77 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.78 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.78 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.80 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.81 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.81 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.82 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.86 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.93 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 3.06 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 3.14 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.18 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.18 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.19 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.19 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.32 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.49 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.62 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.89 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 4.28 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 59.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |