Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.34 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.63 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 1.75 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.97 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.01 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.26 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.27 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.28 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.31 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.31 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.36 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.38 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.40 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.42 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.42 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.46 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.51 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.52 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.54 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.55 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.68 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.69 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.71 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.72 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.75 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.78 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.80 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.84 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.87 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.90 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.94 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.96 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.96 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.98 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.12 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 3.16 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.25 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.27 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 3.29 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.30 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.44 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.50 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 3.51 | -3.07 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.57 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 3.66 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.70 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 4.02 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 4.03 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 4.18 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 4.19 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 52.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 86.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 33.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |