Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 169 | 1.32 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.41 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.50 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.53 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 1.58 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 1.62 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.80 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 1.83 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.88 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 1.93 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 1.96 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.09 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.10 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.18 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.21 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.22 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.37 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.42 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.43 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.43 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.44 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.49 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.52 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.59 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.59 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.63 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.64 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.67 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.67 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.85 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.90 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.90 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.91 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.93 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 3.04 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.06 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.06 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 3.08 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.11 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 3.17 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.18 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.20 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 3.24 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.33 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.36 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 3.41 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.52 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.56 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.57 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 4.38 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 97.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 101.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 56.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 77.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |