Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.70 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 1.73 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 1.89 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.97 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 2.06 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.13 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.18 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.18 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.25 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.26 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.27 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.28 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.32 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.34 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.34 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.36 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.44 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.49 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.55 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.56 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.58 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.58 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.60 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.61 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.63 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.64 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.65 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.66 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.67 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.69 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.72 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.73 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.73 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.77 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.78 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.81 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.86 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.97 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.99 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 3.00 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.03 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 3.09 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.20 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.24 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.41 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 3.47 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.50 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.57 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 4.10 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 4.42 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 48.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 56.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 55.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |