Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.60 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.61 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.83 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.83 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.86 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 1.89 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.91 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 1.92 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 1.94 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.94 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.96 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.96 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.97 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 1.98 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.05 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.19 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.20 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.24 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.30 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.31 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.35 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.35 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.36 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.45 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.56 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.58 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.66 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.68 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.72 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.73 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.80 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.81 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.83 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.84 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.84 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.03 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.06 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.07 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.08 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.09 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.13 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.17 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.24 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.43 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.48 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.53 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.58 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.68 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 3.79 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.86 | -2.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 40.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 66.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 60.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 68.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 54.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 62.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 70.0°F | -13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 67.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |