Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
56983
2735232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.40°
9300 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-30 17:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Columbus OH 186 1.61 -1.23 48.0
Providence RI 186 1.70 -0.53 48.0
Pierre SD 186 1.73 0.56 48.0
Richmond VA 186 1.73 -0.47 48.0
Lansing MI 186 1.78 0.73 48.0
Salem OR 186 1.81 0.17 48.0
Augusta ME 186 1.85 -0.59 48.0
Hartford CT 186 1.90 -0.95 48.0
Des Moines IA 186 1.97 1.22 48.0
Saint Paul MN 186 1.97 0.37 48.0
Charleston WV 186 1.97 1.18 48.0
Indianapolis IN 186 2.02 -1.34 48.0
Sacramento CA 186 2.03 0.52 48.0
Nashville TN 186 2.03 0.67 48.0
Topeka KS 186 2.04 0.32 48.0
Raleigh NC 186 2.09 0.18 48.0
Annapolis MD 186 2.12 0.52 48.0
Frankfort KY 186 2.13 1.27 48.0
Tallahassee FL 186 2.15 -0.16 48.0
Atlanta GA 186 2.17 0.47 48.0
Honolulu HI 186 2.24 -2.23 48.0
Madison WI 186 2.26 0.61 48.0
Concord NH 186 2.30 0.07 48.0
Albany NY 186 2.30 -0.70 48.0
Jefferson City MO 186 2.34 1.49 48.0
Lincoln NE 186 2.34 1.22 48.0
Montpelier VT 186 2.37 0.75 48.0
Juneau AK 186 2.39 1.45 48.0
Boston MA 186 2.41 -0.06 48.0
Columbia SC 186 2.42 -0.61 48.0
Jackson MS 186 2.43 0.97 48.0
Trenton NJ 186 2.46 1.74 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 186 2.65 -0.22 48.0
Olympia WA 186 2.68 -1.16 48.0
Dover DE 186 2.70 -0.71 48.0
Austin TX 186 2.76 2.37 48.0
Springfield IL 186 2.82 2.16 48.0
Bismarck ND 186 2.82 -0.97 48.0
Cheyenne WY 186 2.83 -0.27 48.0
Carson City NV 186 2.87 -0.50 48.0
Santa Fe NM 186 2.87 -0.58 48.0
Montgomery AL 186 2.88 -1.52 48.0
Phoenix AZ 186 2.92 -1.99 48.0
Boise ID 186 2.99 -2.25 48.0
Helena MT 186 3.08 0.19 48.0
Denver CO 186 3.13 1.61 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 186 3.15 0.33 48.0
Harrisburg PA 186 3.28 -0.94 48.0
Little Rock AR 186 3.29 1.44 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 186 3.43 1.03 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Montgomery AL 86.0°F 90.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 09:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 10:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Little Rock AR 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 10:00 PDT Sacramento CA 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 11:00 MDT Denver CO 81.0°F 73.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Hartford CT 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Atlanta GA 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 07:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 11:00 MDT Boise ID 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Springfield IL 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Des Moines IA 87.0°F 79.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Topeka KS 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Frankfort KY 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Augusta ME 79.0°F 70.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Boston MA 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Lansing MI 80.0°F 72.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Jackson MS 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 11:00 MDT Helena MT 57.0°F 62.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Lincoln NE 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 10:00 PDT Carson City NV 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Concord NH 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Trenton NJ 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 11:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Albany NY 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Raleigh NC 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Bismarck ND 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Columbus OH 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 94.0°F 98.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 10:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Providence RI 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 EDT Columbia SC 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0