Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.62 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.73 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 1.82 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 1.83 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 1.88 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.91 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 1.95 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 1.97 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.98 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.02 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.02 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.08 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.09 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.19 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.19 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.26 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.27 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.31 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.39 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.39 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.40 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.41 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.45 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.47 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.48 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.62 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.64 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.68 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.75 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.78 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.79 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.82 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.83 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.84 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.85 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.94 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.95 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.96 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.02 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.17 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.27 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 3.29 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.30 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.43 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.44 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 3.57 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.61 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.62 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.76 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 91.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 101.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 69.0°F | +18.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 90.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 95.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 66.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 104.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |