Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 1.72 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 1.75 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.76 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.84 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.86 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 1.96 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 1.99 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 1.99 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.02 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.04 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.07 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.07 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.11 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.13 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.18 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.18 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.19 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.21 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.22 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.24 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.24 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.24 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.24 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 2.27 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.27 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.28 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.31 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.37 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.42 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.45 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.50 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.54 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.59 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.73 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.75 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.79 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.80 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.83 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.86 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.88 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.88 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.89 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.99 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.99 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.06 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.13 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.14 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.19 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 3.67 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.69 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 110.0°F | 109.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 95.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 64.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 99.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |