Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.46 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.57 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.62 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 1.69 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 1.89 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.92 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 1.95 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.00 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.10 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.15 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.15 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.15 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.15 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.18 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.18 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.20 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.24 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.29 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.44 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.48 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.51 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.51 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.58 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.58 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.59 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.64 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.64 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.67 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.68 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.72 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.72 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.75 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.75 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.80 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.83 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.85 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.89 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.90 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.92 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.99 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.04 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.10 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.15 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 3.20 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.23 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 3.31 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.53 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 3.72 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.97 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.99 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 61.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 67.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |