Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.13 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.48 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 1.68 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 1.69 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.75 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.84 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.91 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.00 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.06 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.06 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.09 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.10 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.11 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.11 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.14 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.21 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.23 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.25 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.34 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.37 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.37 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.37 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.41 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.45 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.45 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.47 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.48 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.54 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.55 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.62 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.78 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.81 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.83 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.87 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.02 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.05 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.05 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.09 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.10 | -2.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 3.15 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.16 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.19 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.24 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.28 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.29 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.45 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.56 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 3.67 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.81 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.83 | -3.08 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 64.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |