Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.26 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.59 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.59 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 1.66 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.70 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 1.83 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.90 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.93 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.93 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 1.95 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.95 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.04 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.05 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.09 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.25 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.29 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.35 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.39 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.39 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.41 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.42 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.46 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.49 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.52 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.53 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.55 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.60 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.64 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.68 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.70 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.70 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.76 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.77 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.97 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.98 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.99 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.04 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 3.08 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.13 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.17 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 3.34 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.34 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.43 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.43 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.45 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.66 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 4.08 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 4.14 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 4.20 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 88.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 57.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |