Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 175 | 1.74 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 1.77 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 1.80 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.87 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.92 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.06 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.06 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.08 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.08 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.12 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.14 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.14 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.14 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.19 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.24 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.29 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.29 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.31 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.33 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.37 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.38 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.41 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.42 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.47 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.51 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.53 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.62 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.66 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.66 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.66 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.69 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.71 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.74 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.75 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 2.79 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.85 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.90 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.91 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.99 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 3.02 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.08 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 3.10 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.13 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.23 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 3.45 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.59 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.70 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 3.77 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.87 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.90 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |