Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.18 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.22 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 1.57 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.75 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 1.78 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.87 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.90 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 1.91 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.03 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.15 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.17 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.18 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.21 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.26 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.38 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.41 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.42 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.45 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.48 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.57 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.57 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.62 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.62 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.67 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.69 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.69 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.69 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.73 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.73 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.77 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.80 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.81 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.81 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 2.83 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.85 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.90 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 3.02 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.11 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.17 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.18 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.18 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.19 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 3.21 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.29 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.37 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.42 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 3.85 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 4.27 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 4.42 | -3.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 97.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |