Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
66733
3203232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
9450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-07 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 189 1.28 -0.67 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 1.31 0.76 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 1.57 0.30 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 1.67 0.87 48.0
Nashville TN 189 1.71 1.14 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 1.76 -1.39 48.0
Salem OR 189 1.79 0.97 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 1.80 0.47 48.0
Austin TX 189 1.94 -0.16 48.0
Columbus OH 189 1.96 0.38 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 1.99 0.78 48.0
Columbia SC 189 2.08 0.13 48.0
Jackson MS 189 2.22 1.29 48.0
Augusta ME 189 2.27 0.30 48.0
Albany NY 189 2.28 0.45 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 2.30 1.03 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.42 0.60 48.0
Topeka KS 189 2.45 1.54 48.0
Charleston WV 189 2.51 2.23 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 2.52 0.31 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.54 1.37 48.0
Springfield IL 189 2.56 2.38 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 2.56 1.90 48.0
Dover DE 189 2.58 0.35 48.0
Cheyenne WY 189 2.60 -0.96 48.0
Concord NH 189 2.64 -0.87 48.0
Lansing MI 189 2.68 1.72 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 2.70 1.23 48.0
Hartford CT 189 2.72 0.05 48.0
Madison WI 189 2.72 2.10 48.0
Richmond VA 189 2.79 1.29 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 2.87 0.21 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 2.87 0.93 48.0
Providence RI 189 2.87 -0.74 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 2.90 1.87 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 2.93 0.48 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 2.96 -1.67 48.0
Olympia WA 189 2.97 -0.34 48.0
Juneau AK 189 2.99 0.00 48.0
Helena MT 189 3.06 -0.83 48.0
Carson City NV 189 3.08 -2.29 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 3.13 2.72 48.0
Denver CO 189 3.26 0.09 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 3.30 1.38 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 3.40 -0.13 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 3.53 -1.50 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 3.65 -1.96 48.0
Boise ID 189 3.66 1.15 48.0
Pierre SD 189 4.19 2.17 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 4.22 -3.56 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 94.0°F 94.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 102.0°F 102.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 MDT Denver CO 90.0°F 82.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 91.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 MDT Boise ID 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 86.0°F 77.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 97.0°F 98.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 81.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Boston MA 75.0°F 81.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 80.0°F 85.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 97.0°F 99.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 MDT Helena MT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Concord NH 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Albany NY 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 98.0°F 101.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 13:00 PDT Salem OR 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Providence RI 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0