Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
50383
2418432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-25 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Juneau AK 174 1.54 0.55 48.0
Frankfort KY 174 1.58 0.30 48.0
Austin TX 174 1.70 1.34 48.0
Charleston WV 174 1.73 0.02 48.0
Honolulu HI 174 1.87 -1.22 48.0
Richmond VA 174 1.87 -0.25 48.0
Lansing MI 174 1.93 0.72 48.0
Saint Paul MN 174 1.96 -0.41 48.0
Raleigh NC 174 1.99 0.46 48.0
Trenton NJ 174 2.02 0.90 48.0
Boise ID 174 2.03 -0.67 48.0
Annapolis MD 174 2.04 1.14 48.0
Indianapolis IN 174 2.05 -1.57 48.0
Columbus OH 174 2.13 -1.73 48.0
Sacramento CA 174 2.18 0.42 48.0
Harrisburg PA 174 2.24 1.05 48.0
Augusta ME 174 2.25 -1.66 48.0
Providence RI 174 2.26 0.48 48.0
Nashville TN 174 2.28 0.93 48.0
Madison WI 174 2.36 1.64 48.0
Albany NY 174 2.41 -0.38 48.0
Dover DE 174 2.43 -0.67 48.0
Des Moines IA 174 2.45 -1.49 48.0
Jefferson City MO 174 2.50 2.17 48.0
Salem OR 174 2.52 -0.68 48.0
Springfield IL 174 2.60 1.99 48.0
Columbia SC 174 2.61 0.25 48.0
Jackson MS 174 2.62 1.44 48.0
Montpelier VT 174 2.64 1.30 48.0
Boston MA 174 2.67 0.89 48.0
Lincoln NE 174 2.72 1.47 48.0
Atlanta GA 174 2.74 2.15 48.0
Hartford CT 174 2.77 -0.10 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 174 2.80 2.62 48.0
Topeka KS 174 2.82 2.18 48.0
Pierre SD 174 2.82 0.05 48.0
Tallahassee FL 174 2.83 1.53 48.0
Santa Fe NM 174 2.83 1.16 48.0
Montgomery AL 174 2.86 -0.26 48.0
Helena MT 174 2.89 -0.99 48.0
Carson City NV 174 2.93 -2.05 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 174 2.94 0.96 48.0
Concord NH 174 2.95 -1.21 48.0
Bismarck ND 174 3.14 -1.52 48.0
Phoenix AZ 174 3.23 -0.63 48.0
Cheyenne WY 174 3.36 0.48 48.0
Denver CO 174 3.40 0.51 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 174 3.50 -0.91 48.0
Little Rock AR 174 3.53 -0.36 48.0
Olympia WA 174 3.91 -2.41 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 97.0°F 100.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 23:00 MDT Denver CO 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 62.0°F 67.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Dover DE 65.0°F 72.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 68.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 23:00 MDT Boise ID 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 66.0°F 61.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 76.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Boston MA 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 23:00 MDT Helena MT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Concord NH 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Albany NY 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 22:00 PDT Salem OR 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Providence RI 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0