Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 182 | 1.56 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.57 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.75 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 1.79 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.88 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.90 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 1.92 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.93 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.97 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 1.99 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.03 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.05 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.08 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.14 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.19 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.20 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.22 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.26 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.27 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.38 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.42 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.45 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.45 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.45 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.46 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.58 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.60 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.64 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.64 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.67 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.67 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.70 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.73 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.77 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.79 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.81 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.82 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.83 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.88 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.88 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.91 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.95 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.07 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.24 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.34 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.38 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 3.43 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.52 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.86 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |