Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.22 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 1.62 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.64 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 1.78 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 1.79 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 1.83 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.85 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.95 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 1.98 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.05 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.06 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.09 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.16 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.17 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.17 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.26 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.28 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.34 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.39 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.39 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.40 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.41 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.43 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.43 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.45 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.46 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.49 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.49 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.51 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.53 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.54 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.55 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.55 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.58 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.64 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.72 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.73 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.79 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.80 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.81 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.07 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.39 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.42 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.54 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.66 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.67 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.68 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.77 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.86 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.91 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 99.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 84.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 77.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 75.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |