Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.77 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.88 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 1.95 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.95 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.06 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.06 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.09 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.09 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.12 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.15 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.18 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.20 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.20 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.22 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.25 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.26 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.27 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.31 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.33 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.36 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.44 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.44 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.49 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.51 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.52 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.54 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.54 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.61 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.62 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.63 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.66 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.69 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.71 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.76 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.77 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.81 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.88 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 3.04 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.05 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 3.09 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.10 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.32 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.32 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.44 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.47 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.53 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 3.56 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.90 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 4.08 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 4.45 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 93.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 57.0°F | +18.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 70.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 67.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |