Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
48333
2320032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.57°
9050 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-23 12:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 181 1.59 1.19 48.0
Jackson MS 181 1.79 0.80 48.0
Richmond VA 181 1.85 0.16 48.0
Honolulu HI 181 1.86 -0.51 48.0
Lansing MI 181 1.92 0.31 48.0
Saint Paul MN 181 1.97 -0.29 48.0
Juneau AK 181 2.02 0.34 48.0
Boise ID 181 2.03 -0.88 48.0
Raleigh NC 181 2.07 0.92 48.0
Sacramento CA 181 2.08 0.44 48.0
Frankfort KY 181 2.16 1.22 48.0
Charleston WV 181 2.16 0.66 48.0
Dover DE 181 2.20 0.21 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 181 2.20 1.97 48.0
Providence RI 181 2.25 0.61 48.0
Indianapolis IN 181 2.27 -0.20 48.0
Albany NY 181 2.27 0.55 48.0
Boston MA 181 2.31 0.85 48.0
Columbus OH 181 2.34 -0.86 48.0
Annapolis MD 181 2.40 1.03 48.0
Jefferson City MO 181 2.43 2.04 48.0
Augusta ME 181 2.48 -1.60 48.0
Madison WI 181 2.52 1.45 48.0
Des Moines IA 181 2.53 -1.13 48.0
Trenton NJ 181 2.54 1.52 48.0
Columbia SC 181 2.54 1.70 48.0
Nashville TN 181 2.54 1.46 48.0
Lincoln NE 181 2.66 1.18 48.0
Springfield IL 181 2.67 2.09 48.0
Tallahassee FL 181 2.68 1.25 48.0
Atlanta GA 181 2.69 2.19 48.0
Bismarck ND 181 2.70 -1.09 48.0
Harrisburg PA 181 2.70 1.70 48.0
Helena MT 181 2.73 -0.73 48.0
Topeka KS 181 2.75 2.13 48.0
Montgomery AL 181 2.76 0.46 48.0
Salem OR 181 2.76 0.09 48.0
Pierre SD 181 2.77 -0.56 48.0
Hartford CT 181 2.81 0.80 48.0
Concord NH 181 2.85 -1.61 48.0
Montpelier VT 181 2.87 0.72 48.0
Little Rock AR 181 2.89 -1.04 48.0
Carson City NV 181 2.97 -2.20 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 181 3.15 0.87 48.0
Santa Fe NM 181 3.26 -0.01 48.0
Denver CO 181 3.49 0.21 48.0
Phoenix AZ 181 3.55 -1.67 48.0
Cheyenne WY 181 3.55 0.46 48.0
Olympia WA 181 3.74 -1.38 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 181 4.12 -2.10 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 04:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Little Rock AR 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 MDT Denver CO 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Hartford CT 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Atlanta GA 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 02:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 MDT Boise ID 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Springfield IL 62.0°F 58.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Des Moines IA 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Topeka KS 66.0°F 61.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Frankfort KY 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Augusta ME 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Lansing MI 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 MDT Helena MT 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Lincoln NE 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 PDT Carson City NV 57.0°F 64.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Albany NY 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Raleigh NC 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Bismarck ND 61.0°F 55.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Columbus OH 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 07:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 63.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Providence RI 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0