Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.24 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.39 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.61 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 1.70 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 1.91 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.96 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.97 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.99 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.06 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.08 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.09 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.17 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.18 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.19 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.21 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.21 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.21 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.25 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.28 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.31 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.34 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.37 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.37 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.38 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.38 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.45 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.48 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.58 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.63 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.73 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.74 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.79 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 2.89 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.92 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.94 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.94 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.94 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.95 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.01 | -2.91 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 3.02 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.18 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.20 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 3.21 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.32 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.43 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.66 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 3.72 | -2.93 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.72 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.76 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 4.56 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 62.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |