Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 187 | 1.77 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 1.86 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 1.87 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.96 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.99 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.00 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.07 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.12 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.14 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.15 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.20 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.21 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.24 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.26 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.27 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.28 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.29 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.29 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.39 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.42 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.45 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.47 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.47 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.50 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.50 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.52 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.56 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.58 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.59 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.65 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.65 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.65 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.65 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.73 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.77 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.90 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.90 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.95 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.97 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.01 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.16 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.16 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.33 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 3.35 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.37 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 3.60 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.60 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.66 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.89 | 3.23 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.99 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 42.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 85.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 61.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 63.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 74.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 72.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |