Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.17 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 1.29 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.49 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 1.54 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 1.55 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 1.79 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.94 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 1.96 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 1.99 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.01 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.03 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.03 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.09 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.11 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.16 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.16 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.16 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.33 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.34 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.34 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.37 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.42 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 2.43 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.46 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.48 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.49 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.52 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.52 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.56 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.59 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.71 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.82 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 2.82 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.84 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.86 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.89 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.92 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.93 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.04 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 3.09 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.23 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 3.42 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 3.49 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.58 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 3.95 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 4.03 | 3.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 4.04 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 4.09 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 4.58 | 4.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 4.68 | 3.61 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 68.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |