Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.71 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.72 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 1.74 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 1.75 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 1.78 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.86 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 1.86 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 1.98 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.01 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.02 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.02 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.03 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.03 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.04 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.04 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.05 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.10 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.11 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.12 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.12 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.13 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.14 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.17 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.21 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.27 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 2.32 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.34 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.38 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.51 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.52 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.60 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.71 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.72 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.73 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.74 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.75 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.82 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.83 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.85 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.85 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.86 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.86 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.01 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 3.04 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.05 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 3.05 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.24 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.27 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 3.57 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.80 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 105.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 73.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 13.0°F | 76.0°F | -63.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |