Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
40033
1921632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
9150 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-16 14:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 183 1.14 0.48 48.0
Jackson MS 183 1.33 0.58 48.0
Little Rock AR 183 1.56 -0.46 48.0
Providence RI 183 1.61 -0.11 48.0
Hartford CT 183 1.62 0.42 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 183 1.66 -0.04 48.0
Augusta ME 183 1.70 0.42 48.0
Concord NH 183 1.81 -0.01 48.0
Honolulu HI 183 1.95 -1.52 48.0
Trenton NJ 183 1.95 0.46 48.0
Madison WI 183 2.00 0.46 48.0
Albany NY 183 2.02 0.16 48.0
Boston MA 183 2.04 -0.33 48.0
Lansing MI 183 2.04 0.61 48.0
Salem OR 183 2.14 0.66 48.0
Raleigh NC 183 2.16 0.83 48.0
Richmond VA 183 2.17 0.27 48.0
Helena MT 183 2.29 0.34 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 183 2.29 0.81 48.0
Nashville TN 183 2.30 1.95 48.0
Harrisburg PA 183 2.31 0.01 48.0
Tallahassee FL 183 2.35 0.28 48.0
Des Moines IA 183 2.40 0.03 48.0
Carson City NV 183 2.43 -0.75 48.0
Dover DE 183 2.46 0.10 48.0
Atlanta GA 183 2.46 1.64 48.0
Boise ID 183 2.50 -0.05 48.0
Lincoln NE 183 2.50 0.52 48.0
Topeka KS 183 2.57 1.10 48.0
Jefferson City MO 183 2.57 2.01 48.0
Saint Paul MN 183 2.62 -1.12 48.0
Phoenix AZ 183 2.63 -0.44 48.0
Olympia WA 183 2.66 -0.01 48.0
Montpelier VT 183 2.70 1.75 48.0
Pierre SD 183 2.72 -0.44 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 183 2.73 -0.90 48.0
Bismarck ND 183 2.83 -1.55 48.0
Annapolis MD 183 2.84 0.37 48.0
Santa Fe NM 183 2.86 -2.01 48.0
Denver CO 183 2.96 1.26 48.0
Columbia SC 183 3.09 2.04 48.0
Sacramento CA 183 3.28 2.93 48.0
Montgomery AL 183 3.42 0.28 48.0
Cheyenne WY 183 3.43 0.47 48.0
Springfield IL 183 3.52 2.73 48.0
Columbus OH 183 3.67 2.86 48.0
Juneau AK 183 3.68 -0.20 48.0
Charleston WV 183 3.84 1.94 48.0
Frankfort KY 183 4.16 3.72 48.0
Indianapolis IN 183 4.56 2.67 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Montgomery AL 86.0°F 79.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 06:00 AKDT Juneau AK 57.0°F 51.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 07:00 MST Phoenix AZ 88.0°F 92.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Little Rock AR 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 07:00 PDT Sacramento CA 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 08:00 MDT Denver CO 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Hartford CT 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Dover DE 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Atlanta GA 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 08:00 MDT Boise ID 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Springfield IL 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Des Moines IA 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Topeka KS 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Frankfort KY 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Boston MA 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Lansing MI 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Jackson MS 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 08:00 MDT Helena MT 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Lincoln NE 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 07:00 PDT Carson City NV 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Concord NH 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Trenton NJ 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 08:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Raleigh NC 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Bismarck ND 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 09:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 07:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Providence RI 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 10:00 EDT Columbia SC 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0