Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
58233
2795232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.45°
9350 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-31 18:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 187 1.61 -0.70 48.0
Columbus OH 187 1.70 -1.14 48.0
Salem OR 187 1.72 0.30 48.0
Providence RI 187 1.73 -0.54 48.0
Hartford CT 187 1.86 -0.76 48.0
Topeka KS 187 1.87 -0.23 48.0
Indianapolis IN 187 1.91 -1.07 48.0
Nashville TN 187 1.96 0.75 48.0
Lansing MI 187 1.97 0.90 48.0
Saint Paul MN 187 1.99 0.37 48.0
Sacramento CA 187 2.04 0.75 48.0
Concord NH 187 2.09 0.00 48.0
Raleigh NC 187 2.11 0.36 48.0
Annapolis MD 187 2.12 0.55 48.0
Honolulu HI 187 2.16 -2.06 48.0
Charleston WV 187 2.16 1.66 48.0
Tallahassee FL 187 2.19 -0.27 48.0
Frankfort KY 187 2.20 1.33 48.0
Boston MA 187 2.20 -0.38 48.0
Atlanta GA 187 2.27 0.47 48.0
Jefferson City MO 187 2.28 1.45 48.0
Columbia SC 187 2.29 -0.45 48.0
Des Moines IA 187 2.34 1.75 48.0
Albany NY 187 2.34 0.05 48.0
Pierre SD 187 2.34 1.36 48.0
Juneau AK 187 2.37 1.50 48.0
Jackson MS 187 2.37 0.75 48.0
Montpelier VT 187 2.42 1.24 48.0
Augusta ME 187 2.45 0.24 48.0
Trenton NJ 187 2.57 1.91 48.0
Bismarck ND 187 2.62 -0.73 48.0
Carson City NV 187 2.65 0.05 48.0
Austin TX 187 2.67 2.19 48.0
Madison WI 187 2.69 1.03 48.0
Dover DE 187 2.70 -0.61 48.0
Olympia WA 187 2.75 -0.93 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 187 2.79 -0.32 48.0
Helena MT 187 2.81 -0.66 48.0
Springfield IL 187 2.86 2.23 48.0
Boise ID 187 2.88 -1.87 48.0
Lincoln NE 187 2.88 1.78 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 187 2.90 -0.50 48.0
Montgomery AL 187 2.99 -1.75 48.0
Cheyenne WY 187 3.06 -0.07 48.0
Phoenix AZ 187 3.13 -1.50 48.0
Little Rock AR 187 3.13 1.29 48.0
Harrisburg PA 187 3.30 -0.99 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 187 3.37 0.86 48.0
Santa Fe NM 187 3.39 -1.58 48.0
Denver CO 187 3.41 2.32 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Montgomery AL 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 10:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 11:00 MST Phoenix AZ 94.0°F 78.0°F +16.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Little Rock AR 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 11:00 PDT Sacramento CA 72.0°F 65.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 12:00 MDT Denver CO 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Hartford CT 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Dover DE 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 08:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 12:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Springfield IL 96.0°F 93.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Des Moines IA 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Topeka KS 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Frankfort KY 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Augusta ME 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Annapolis MD 89.0°F 83.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Boston MA 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Lansing MI 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Jackson MS 92.0°F 92.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 12:00 MDT Helena MT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Lincoln NE 92.0°F 87.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 11:00 PDT Carson City NV 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Concord NH 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Trenton NJ 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 12:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Albany NY 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Raleigh NC 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Bismarck ND 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Columbus OH 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 13:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 96.0°F 98.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 11:00 PDT Salem OR 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 86.0°F 78.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Providence RI 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 14:00 EDT Columbia SC 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0