Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.54 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.66 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.85 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.92 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.92 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 1.96 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 1.96 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.01 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.05 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 2.06 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.07 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.08 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.10 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.12 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.16 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.18 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.22 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.27 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.28 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.28 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.40 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.45 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.46 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.46 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.48 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.57 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.65 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.79 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.82 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.87 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.88 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.92 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.97 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 3.01 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.04 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.09 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.11 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.13 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 3.25 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.31 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.31 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.33 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.44 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.59 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.62 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.75 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.83 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.83 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 4.08 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 102.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 92.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 68.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 64.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |