Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.41 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 1.62 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.63 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 1.76 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.94 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.03 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.04 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.04 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.07 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.07 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.08 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.16 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.16 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.20 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 2.23 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.26 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.26 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.27 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.30 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.30 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.33 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.35 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.44 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.46 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.47 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.47 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.55 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.64 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.72 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.75 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.79 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.81 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.88 | -2.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.89 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.92 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.93 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.94 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.01 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.05 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.17 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.20 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.33 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.33 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 3.34 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.36 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.56 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.67 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.73 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 3.82 | -3.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 4.45 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 69.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 102.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 92.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |