Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.49 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.56 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.64 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.67 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 1.78 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.82 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 1.90 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.90 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.96 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 1.97 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.99 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 1.99 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.03 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.14 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.18 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.20 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.23 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.24 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.25 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.30 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.34 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.34 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.38 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.40 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.41 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.48 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.51 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.52 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.59 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.60 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.61 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.64 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.64 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.65 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.75 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.83 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.85 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.86 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.96 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.96 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.97 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.98 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.00 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.11 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.18 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.41 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.47 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 3.61 | 3.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.81 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 4.02 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 88.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |