Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 176 | 1.76 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.85 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.95 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 1.96 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.03 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.03 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.06 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.11 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.11 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.13 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.18 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.22 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.24 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.26 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.30 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.33 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.34 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.36 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.37 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.38 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.38 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.44 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.51 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.51 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.57 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.57 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.62 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.65 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.65 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.80 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.84 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.85 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.85 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.88 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.89 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.93 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.94 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.95 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 3.06 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.07 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 3.16 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 3.18 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.18 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 3.37 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.38 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 3.61 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.65 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.96 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 4.01 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 4.28 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 41.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |