Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 187 | 1.44 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.46 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.47 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.53 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 1.55 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 1.57 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.78 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 1.80 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 1.83 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.98 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.03 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.09 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.24 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.25 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.26 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.27 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.42 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.43 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.47 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.49 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.50 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.55 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.55 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.57 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.60 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.60 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.63 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.71 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.80 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.84 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.86 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.89 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.94 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.95 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.96 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.99 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 3.00 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.00 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.01 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.02 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.04 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 3.11 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.20 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.25 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 3.28 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 3.44 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.60 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.75 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.82 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 4.34 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 77.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 58.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 94.0°F | 88.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |