Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.14 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 1.34 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.40 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 1.61 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.71 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.75 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.76 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 1.79 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 1.84 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.05 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.05 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.08 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.10 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.13 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.16 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.25 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.25 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.30 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.30 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.35 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.35 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.36 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.38 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.39 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.44 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.45 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.53 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.64 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.65 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.67 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.68 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.69 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.70 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.79 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.91 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.99 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 3.00 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 3.04 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.06 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 3.09 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.18 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.18 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 3.34 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.38 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 3.40 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.40 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.65 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.69 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.85 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 81.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 64.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |