Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.26 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.59 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 1.81 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.84 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 1.87 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.89 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 1.91 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.96 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.09 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.09 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.09 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.15 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.18 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.19 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.25 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.27 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.27 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.28 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.29 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.29 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.29 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.33 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.45 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.48 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.49 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.54 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.62 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.66 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.66 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.67 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.81 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.83 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.86 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.89 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.91 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.92 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.98 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.01 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.01 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.06 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 3.14 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.17 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 3.18 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.31 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.39 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 3.41 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.49 | -2.50 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.60 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.68 | 3.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.68 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 40.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 68.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 70.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 69.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |