Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 185 | 1.45 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.48 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.48 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.54 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 1.56 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 1.58 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.78 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 1.82 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 1.84 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.98 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.05 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.09 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.21 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.24 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.28 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.29 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.34 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.43 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.48 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.51 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.51 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.56 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.57 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.57 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.59 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.59 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.61 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.72 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.81 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.82 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.86 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.89 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.90 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.95 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.96 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.97 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.00 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 3.01 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.01 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.03 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.03 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 3.09 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.24 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.25 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 3.30 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 3.46 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.62 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.74 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.80 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 4.38 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 75.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 83.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |