Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.52 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.73 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 1.73 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.81 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 1.84 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 1.84 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 1.84 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.91 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 1.99 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.01 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.01 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.04 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.06 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.12 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.15 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.15 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.17 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 2.19 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.19 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.19 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.26 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.35 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.36 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.37 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.39 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.44 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.45 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.46 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.55 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.55 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.57 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.58 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.60 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.63 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.64 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.73 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.75 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.75 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.82 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 2.94 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.96 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 3.07 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.14 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.15 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.15 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.25 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.26 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 3.44 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.48 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.50 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 74.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 61.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |