Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.13 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.34 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.44 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 1.64 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.67 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.67 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.78 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 1.79 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 1.88 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.07 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.09 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.10 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.11 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.16 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.18 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.22 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.26 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.28 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.33 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.34 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.37 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.37 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.38 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.41 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.41 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.46 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.53 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.57 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.63 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.65 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.65 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.69 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.73 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.80 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.85 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.86 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.01 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 3.04 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 3.08 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.11 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.15 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 3.17 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.17 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.40 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 3.41 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 3.42 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.54 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.59 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.75 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.91 | 3.54 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 108.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 103.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 91.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 86.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 104.0°F | 103.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |