Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.56 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.66 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.67 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 1.89 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 1.92 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 1.93 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 1.94 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.96 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.00 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 2.08 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.08 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.13 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.16 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.18 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.19 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.19 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.20 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.21 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.26 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.26 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.37 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.40 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.42 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.45 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.45 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.54 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.61 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.73 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.74 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.82 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.84 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.85 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 2.92 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.97 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.97 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.00 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.02 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.07 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.09 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.18 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 3.20 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.24 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.47 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 3.56 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.60 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.66 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.70 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.70 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 4.11 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 4.17 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 44.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 66.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 71.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |