Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.50 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.66 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 1.79 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 1.85 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.86 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 1.88 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.98 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 1.99 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.01 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.05 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.08 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.09 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.14 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.15 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.17 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.17 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 2.18 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.18 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.20 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.23 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.30 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.32 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.32 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.32 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.40 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.41 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.49 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.55 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.56 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.56 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.57 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.58 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.58 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.68 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.68 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.72 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.80 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.81 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.83 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.84 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 2.96 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 3.04 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.08 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 3.13 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.15 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.19 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.29 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 3.39 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.51 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.58 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 99.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 63.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 94.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 97.0°F | 99.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 59.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |