Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.75 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.87 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.01 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.03 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.05 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.08 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.08 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.09 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.18 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.18 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.18 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.20 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.23 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.25 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.25 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.26 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.29 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.29 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.35 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.36 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.44 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.45 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.50 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.50 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.53 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.53 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.58 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.60 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.60 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.63 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.64 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.68 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.70 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.74 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.78 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.80 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.88 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 3.03 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.06 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 3.07 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.08 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.29 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.30 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.47 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.49 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.54 | 3.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 3.56 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.91 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 4.05 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 4.45 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 69.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 62.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 68.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |