Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
36732
1763232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
9449 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-13 19:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 189 0.98 0.39 48.0
Topeka KS 189 1.77 0.30 48.0
Providence RI 189 1.81 -0.53 48.0
Boise ID 189 1.93 0.54 48.0
Albany NY 189 1.93 -0.49 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 2.05 -0.43 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 2.14 0.78 48.0
Juneau AK 189 2.15 -0.56 48.0
Augusta ME 189 2.17 -0.42 48.0
Richmond VA 189 2.17 0.54 48.0
Salem OR 189 2.19 0.57 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 2.20 -2.18 48.0
Lansing MI 189 2.20 -0.17 48.0
Madison WI 189 2.21 0.01 48.0
Hartford CT 189 2.30 -0.19 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 2.32 0.64 48.0
Concord NH 189 2.34 -1.34 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 2.36 1.47 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.37 -0.89 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 2.38 -1.00 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 2.39 0.75 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 2.39 -1.26 48.0
Carson City NV 189 2.42 -0.63 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 2.48 0.17 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 2.50 0.44 48.0
Jackson MS 189 2.52 2.05 48.0
Dover DE 189 2.61 -0.17 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.61 1.93 48.0
Springfield IL 189 2.61 1.58 48.0
Helena MT 189 2.62 0.87 48.0
Nashville TN 189 2.62 2.37 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 2.66 -1.49 48.0
Columbia SC 189 2.66 1.12 48.0
Denver CO 189 2.67 0.50 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 2.71 1.20 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 2.88 0.40 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 2.89 -0.82 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 2.91 -0.71 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 2.95 1.42 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 2.99 2.54 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 3.02 -1.97 48.0
Cheyenne WY 188 3.03 -0.39 48.0
Olympia WA 189 3.04 0.45 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 3.51 2.15 48.0
Pierre SD 189 3.52 0.97 48.0
Columbus OH 189 3.78 2.59 48.0
Indianapolis IN 189 3.94 0.60 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 3.99 3.44 48.0
Charleston WV 189 4.02 2.66 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 4.27 4.24 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 99.0°F 102.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 14:00 MDT Denver CO 78.0°F 70.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Dover DE 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 14:00 MDT Boise ID 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 89.0°F 81.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Boston MA 84.0°F 76.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 98.0°F 95.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 14:00 MDT Helena MT 71.0°F 63.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 78.0°F 73.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Concord NH 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Albany NY 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 74.0°F 80.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 100.0°F 104.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 PDT Salem OR 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Providence RI 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 98.0°F 97.0°F +1.0° 48.0