Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.32 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.58 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 1.78 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.94 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.05 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.18 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.18 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.19 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.21 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.22 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.24 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.33 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.35 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.38 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.43 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.43 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.50 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.53 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.59 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.61 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.62 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.68 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.68 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.68 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.71 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.71 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.77 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.78 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.80 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.83 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.90 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.95 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.95 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.96 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.16 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 3.21 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 3.23 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.26 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 3.28 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.32 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.41 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 3.45 | -2.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.54 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.55 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 3.67 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.73 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.77 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 4.06 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 4.20 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 4.32 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 51.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 29.0°F | 31.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 46.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 51.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 39.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |