Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.35 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.70 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 1.72 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.72 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.99 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.15 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.15 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.17 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.17 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.20 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.20 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.22 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.27 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.28 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.29 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.34 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.37 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.39 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.41 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.42 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.44 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.50 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.52 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.52 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.59 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.65 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.74 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.75 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.78 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.79 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.79 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.83 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.83 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.90 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.95 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 3.02 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.20 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.23 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.29 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.30 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.35 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.39 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 3.49 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 3.53 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.54 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.63 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.72 | -3.33 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.74 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.89 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 4.46 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 96.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 85.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 88.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 70.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 60.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 77.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 65.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |