Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.52 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.52 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.55 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 1.73 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.84 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.95 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 1.97 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 1.99 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 1.99 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.00 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.03 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.09 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.10 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 2.11 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.18 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.20 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.27 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.27 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.33 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.34 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.35 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.35 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.38 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.39 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.39 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.42 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.48 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.49 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.50 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.53 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.60 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.61 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.68 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.70 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.72 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.78 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.78 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.80 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.80 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.85 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.94 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.99 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.02 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.04 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.12 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.26 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.40 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.51 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.52 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 3.79 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 99.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 96.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 97.0°F | 92.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 89.0°F | 73.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 72.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 96.0°F | 99.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 89.0°F | 72.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |