Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.56 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 1.79 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.80 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.88 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 1.90 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.94 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.96 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.03 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.04 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.10 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.12 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.12 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.12 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.20 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.24 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.24 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.29 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.31 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.32 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.33 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.35 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.39 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.45 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.46 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.53 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.54 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.57 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.62 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.72 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.75 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.75 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.84 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.91 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.95 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.97 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.99 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.06 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.08 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.09 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.09 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.23 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.25 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.26 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.38 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 3.45 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.52 | -2.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.68 | 3.57 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.69 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.75 | -2.94 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 76.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |