Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.70 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 1.73 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 1.89 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.97 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 2.04 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.16 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.16 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.19 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.22 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.25 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.25 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.26 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.29 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.31 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.33 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.38 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.46 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.48 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.53 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.56 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.57 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.57 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.58 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.59 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.65 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.66 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.69 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.69 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.69 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.71 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.71 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.72 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.75 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.79 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.79 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.80 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.88 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.98 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.98 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.02 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.03 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 3.10 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.21 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.21 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.42 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 3.44 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.48 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.53 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 4.08 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 4.41 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 48.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 55.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 68.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |