Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
57133
2742432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.41°
9450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-30 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Columbus OH 189 1.64 -1.15 48.0
Providence RI 189 1.69 -0.52 48.0
Richmond VA 189 1.70 -0.47 48.0
Pierre SD 189 1.74 0.60 48.0
Salem OR 189 1.79 0.17 48.0
Lansing MI 189 1.89 0.85 48.0
Hartford CT 189 1.90 -0.90 48.0
Charleston WV 189 1.96 1.19 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 1.97 0.40 48.0
Augusta ME 189 1.98 -0.42 48.0
Nashville TN 189 2.02 0.68 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 2.03 0.54 48.0
Indianapolis IN 189 2.03 -1.29 48.0
Topeka KS 189 2.04 0.29 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 2.09 0.50 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 2.10 1.36 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 2.10 0.22 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 2.13 1.28 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.16 0.44 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 2.19 -0.23 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 2.25 -2.24 48.0
Concord NH 189 2.30 0.11 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 2.32 1.49 48.0
Madison WI 189 2.32 0.69 48.0
Albany NY 189 2.36 -0.59 48.0
Juneau AK 189 2.38 1.46 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.39 -0.07 48.0
Jackson MS 189 2.40 0.95 48.0
Columbia SC 189 2.41 -0.57 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 2.42 1.32 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 2.43 0.84 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 2.47 1.76 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 2.65 -0.26 48.0
Dover DE 189 2.67 -0.71 48.0
Olympia WA 189 2.70 -1.21 48.0
Austin TX 189 2.73 2.34 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 2.79 -0.97 48.0
Springfield IL 189 2.80 2.15 48.0
Carson City NV 189 2.82 -0.49 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 2.87 -0.60 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 2.88 -1.54 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 2.89 -1.95 48.0
Cheyenne WY 189 2.89 -0.15 48.0
Boise ID 189 2.99 -2.16 48.0
Helena MT 189 3.08 0.14 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 3.15 0.28 48.0
Denver CO 189 3.20 1.70 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 3.29 1.47 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 3.30 -0.86 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 3.40 1.01 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 91.0°F 96.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 102.0°F 101.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 97.0°F 94.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 14:00 MDT Denver CO 88.0°F 83.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Dover DE 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 93.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 14:00 MDT Boise ID 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 92.0°F 82.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 80.0°F 70.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Boston MA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 84.0°F 76.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 14:00 MDT Helena MT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 96.0°F 87.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Concord NH 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 81.0°F 86.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Albany NY 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 88.0°F 83.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 100.0°F 103.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 13:00 PDT Salem OR 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Providence RI 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0