Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.81 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.82 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.91 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 1.92 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.93 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.99 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.00 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.04 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.08 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.13 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.15 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.15 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.20 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.25 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.25 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.33 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.34 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.38 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.40 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.43 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.45 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.46 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.46 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.48 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.50 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.54 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.59 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.60 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.65 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.66 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.69 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.71 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.73 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.74 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.75 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.75 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.78 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.86 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.86 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.94 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.98 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.01 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.09 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.24 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.39 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.46 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.47 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.78 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 4.04 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 108.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 99.0°F | 96.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 89.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 98.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 94.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |