Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.64 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.71 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.77 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.82 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.84 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 1.88 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.88 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 1.90 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.92 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.95 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 1.95 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.97 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.01 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.04 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.16 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.21 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.23 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.24 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.25 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.33 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.37 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.44 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.45 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.45 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.48 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.50 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.63 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.69 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.70 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.70 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.78 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.86 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.86 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.88 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.89 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.93 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.98 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.99 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.05 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.07 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.18 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.23 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.37 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.38 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.47 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 3.54 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.77 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.96 | -3.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 89.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 98.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 65.0°F | +19.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 89.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 64.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |