Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.22 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.22 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.51 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 1.72 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 1.73 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.75 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.81 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 1.85 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 1.91 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 1.92 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.02 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.04 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.07 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.08 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.08 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.15 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.30 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.32 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.35 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.37 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.41 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.43 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.46 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.47 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.48 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.48 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.49 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.51 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.54 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.55 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.58 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.59 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.69 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.84 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.84 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.89 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.00 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.16 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.16 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.19 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 3.34 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.40 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.50 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.62 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 3.63 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 3.80 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 3.91 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 4.02 | 3.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 4.58 | 4.05 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 4.60 | 3.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |