Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
67133
3222432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
8650 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-08 04:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 173 1.17 0.54 48.0
Indianapolis IN 173 1.23 -0.62 48.0
Sacramento CA 173 1.40 -0.04 48.0
Jefferson City MO 173 1.59 0.66 48.0
Honolulu HI 173 1.75 -1.24 48.0
Nashville TN 173 1.77 1.18 48.0
Raleigh NC 173 1.87 0.29 48.0
Columbus OH 173 1.90 0.54 48.0
Salem OR 173 1.92 0.98 48.0
Augusta ME 173 2.00 -0.40 48.0
Austin TX 173 2.14 -0.27 48.0
Des Moines IA 173 2.15 0.83 48.0
Albany NY 173 2.19 -0.03 48.0
Columbia SC 173 2.23 0.09 48.0
Jackson MS 173 2.27 1.49 48.0
Charleston WV 173 2.39 2.05 48.0
Lansing MI 173 2.41 1.37 48.0
Saint Paul MN 173 2.43 0.28 48.0
Topeka KS 173 2.45 1.70 48.0
Cheyenne WY 173 2.50 -1.03 48.0
Atlanta GA 173 2.58 1.49 48.0
Madison WI 173 2.58 1.97 48.0
Boston MA 173 2.62 0.21 48.0
Annapolis MD 173 2.63 1.01 48.0
Dover DE 173 2.66 0.11 48.0
Lincoln NE 173 2.66 2.21 48.0
Springfield IL 173 2.68 2.49 48.0
Montpelier VT 173 2.69 0.01 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 173 2.70 1.49 48.0
Frankfort KY 173 2.71 1.99 48.0
Concord NH 173 2.76 -1.13 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 173 2.77 1.72 48.0
Trenton NJ 173 2.82 -0.27 48.0
Harrisburg PA 173 2.82 0.84 48.0
Olympia WA 173 2.84 -0.37 48.0
Hartford CT 173 2.87 -0.26 48.0
Richmond VA 173 2.92 1.50 48.0
Providence RI 173 3.05 -1.27 48.0
Helena MT 173 3.12 -0.73 48.0
Phoenix AZ 173 3.18 -2.68 48.0
Carson City NV 173 3.19 -2.69 48.0
Bismarck ND 173 3.19 1.26 48.0
Denver CO 173 3.20 -0.19 48.0
Juneau AK 173 3.24 -0.17 48.0
Tallahassee FL 173 3.28 -1.95 48.0
Santa Fe NM 173 3.39 -1.22 48.0
Montgomery AL 173 3.40 0.30 48.0
Boise ID 173 3.87 1.21 48.0
Pierre SD 173 4.26 2.06 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 173 4.43 -3.73 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 20:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 21:00 MST Phoenix AZ 97.0°F 100.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Little Rock AR 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 21:00 PDT Sacramento CA 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 22:00 MDT Denver CO 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Hartford CT 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Dover DE 62.0°F 67.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 18:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 22:00 MDT Boise ID 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Springfield IL 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Topeka KS 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 74.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Augusta ME 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Annapolis MD 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Boston MA 63.0°F 69.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Lansing MI 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Jackson MS 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 22:00 MDT Helena MT 54.0°F 56.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Lincoln NE 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 21:00 PDT Carson City NV 65.0°F 70.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Trenton NJ 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 22:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 69.0°F 75.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Albany NY 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Raleigh NC 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Bismarck ND 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 23:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 83.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 21:00 PDT Salem OR 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Providence RI 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 00:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0