Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.26 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.58 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.67 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.78 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.85 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.85 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 1.86 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 1.87 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 1.89 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 1.94 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.96 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.01 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.04 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.06 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.16 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.17 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.22 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.27 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.28 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.30 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.37 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.38 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.43 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.47 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.49 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.50 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.51 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.57 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.59 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.62 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.70 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.70 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.74 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.79 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.80 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.80 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.82 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.84 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.85 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.85 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.91 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 3.13 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.20 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 3.37 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.42 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.43 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 3.43 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.52 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.69 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.78 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |