Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 188 | 1.27 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.39 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 1.49 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 1.59 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.60 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.62 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.65 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.85 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.94 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 1.95 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.00 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.01 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.06 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.12 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.15 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.16 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.22 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.30 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.35 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.36 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.43 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.43 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.46 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.48 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.52 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.57 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.62 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.70 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.78 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.78 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.80 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.84 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.90 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.93 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.99 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.02 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 3.04 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.04 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 3.06 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.11 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 3.14 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 3.21 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.23 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.24 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.28 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.28 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.39 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.44 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.46 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 4.05 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 96.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 52.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 96.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |