Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.23 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.61 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.62 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.67 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 1.74 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 1.87 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 1.89 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.93 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.95 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 1.97 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.07 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.08 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.11 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.12 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.28 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.34 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.36 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.41 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.42 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.43 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.44 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.44 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.45 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.47 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.51 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.53 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.61 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.63 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.66 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.71 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.73 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.73 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.78 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.78 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.87 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.88 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.92 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.93 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.11 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 3.23 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 3.34 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.34 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.35 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.36 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.48 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.52 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.54 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.91 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.95 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 4.00 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 100.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 94.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |