Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 1.64 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 1.72 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.85 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 1.87 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.02 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.02 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.05 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 2.06 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.10 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.13 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.15 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.20 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.21 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.22 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.24 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.25 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.41 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.41 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.43 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.44 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.47 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.48 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.49 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.53 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.62 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.64 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.69 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.69 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.69 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.70 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.77 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.78 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.80 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.80 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.83 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.86 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.90 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.90 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.92 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.99 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 3.06 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.08 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.17 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.17 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.25 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.37 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.40 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.64 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.87 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 4.32 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 82.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |