Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.52 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.65 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 1.77 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 1.81 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.86 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.95 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 1.97 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.05 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.12 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.13 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.15 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.19 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.23 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.25 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.25 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.27 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.27 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.28 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.32 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.33 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.33 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.34 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.40 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.40 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.47 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.48 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.49 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.53 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.67 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.68 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.71 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.77 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.82 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.88 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.90 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.91 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.92 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.94 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 3.05 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.07 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.09 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.15 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.19 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.34 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.37 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.59 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.77 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 4.13 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 4.47 | 4.11 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 4.80 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |