Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.13 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.45 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 1.65 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 1.71 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.73 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 1.85 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.94 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 1.98 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 1.99 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.06 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.09 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.10 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.11 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.13 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.14 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.20 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.24 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.27 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.30 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.37 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.38 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.38 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.40 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.46 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.46 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.50 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.50 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.51 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.54 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.67 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.82 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.83 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.86 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.88 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.01 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.06 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 3.07 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.09 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.09 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.11 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.14 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.15 | -2.80 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 3.25 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.27 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.28 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.44 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.57 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 3.71 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.83 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.87 | -3.19 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 40.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |