Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
49633
2382432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.52°
9150 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-24 14:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Juneau AK 183 1.54 0.41 48.0
Austin TX 183 1.71 1.32 48.0
Honolulu HI 183 1.85 -0.96 48.0
Richmond VA 183 1.86 0.03 48.0
Charleston WV 183 1.89 0.22 48.0
Saint Paul MN 183 1.90 -0.22 48.0
Raleigh NC 183 1.90 0.69 48.0
Frankfort KY 183 1.91 0.68 48.0
Jackson MS 183 1.91 0.74 48.0
Annapolis MD 183 1.95 1.06 48.0
Boise ID 183 1.96 -0.78 48.0
Lansing MI 183 2.03 0.60 48.0
Columbus OH 183 2.11 -1.36 48.0
Indianapolis IN 183 2.12 -1.09 48.0
Dover DE 183 2.19 -0.26 48.0
Des Moines IA 183 2.24 -1.58 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 183 2.29 2.08 48.0
Nashville TN 183 2.30 1.05 48.0
Albany NY 183 2.31 -0.05 48.0
Sacramento CA 183 2.32 0.10 48.0
Providence RI 183 2.34 0.88 48.0
Harrisburg PA 183 2.35 1.36 48.0
Augusta ME 183 2.36 -1.62 48.0
Trenton NJ 183 2.39 1.42 48.0
Springfield IL 183 2.47 1.87 48.0
Jefferson City MO 183 2.49 2.18 48.0
Salem OR 183 2.50 -0.28 48.0
Boston MA 183 2.51 1.24 48.0
Madison WI 183 2.54 1.69 48.0
Columbia SC 183 2.61 0.77 48.0
Atlanta GA 183 2.64 2.14 48.0
Tallahassee FL 183 2.68 1.23 48.0
Pierre SD 183 2.70 -0.26 48.0
Lincoln NE 183 2.75 1.36 48.0
Montgomery AL 183 2.76 -0.26 48.0
Hartford CT 183 2.79 0.49 48.0
Montpelier VT 183 2.81 0.71 48.0
Topeka KS 183 2.83 2.28 48.0
Helena MT 183 2.91 -1.08 48.0
Little Rock AR 183 2.95 -0.97 48.0
Carson City NV 183 3.00 -2.22 48.0
Santa Fe NM 183 3.02 0.61 48.0
Bismarck ND 183 3.04 -1.44 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 183 3.04 0.89 48.0
Concord NH 183 3.09 -1.45 48.0
Phoenix AZ 183 3.32 -1.12 48.0
Denver CO 183 3.50 0.25 48.0
Cheyenne WY 183 3.54 0.43 48.0
Olympia WA 183 3.78 -1.72 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 183 3.92 -1.66 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 07:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 71.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 07:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 08:00 MDT Denver CO 71.0°F 65.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Hartford CT 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Atlanta GA 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 08:00 MDT Boise ID 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Springfield IL 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Des Moines IA 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Topeka KS 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Frankfort KY 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Augusta ME 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Boston MA 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Jackson MS 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 08:00 MDT Helena MT 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Lincoln NE 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 07:00 PDT Carson City NV 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Concord NH 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Trenton NJ 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 08:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Raleigh NC 75.0°F 80.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Bismarck ND 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Columbus OH 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 09:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 07:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Providence RI 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 10:00 EDT Columbia SC 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0