Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.46 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.62 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 1.78 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.84 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.86 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 1.89 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 1.91 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.99 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.05 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.06 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.10 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.13 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.20 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.22 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.23 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.24 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.26 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.27 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.28 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.29 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.32 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.33 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.40 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.45 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.49 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.58 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.59 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.60 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.68 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.70 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.81 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.86 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.87 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.88 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.88 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.95 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.98 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.01 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.03 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.04 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.13 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 3.23 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.26 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.27 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.34 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 3.36 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.46 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.53 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.60 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.67 | -2.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 77.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 62.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 96.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 80.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 75.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |