Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 180 | 0.99 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.52 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.58 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 1.63 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 1.78 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 1.87 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.89 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.94 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.97 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.00 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.04 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.20 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.20 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.25 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.27 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.28 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.29 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.29 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.33 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.42 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.43 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.46 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.47 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.49 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.50 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.53 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.64 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.66 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.72 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.79 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.79 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.83 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.84 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.87 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.90 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.93 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.93 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.96 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.10 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 3.17 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.18 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.23 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.29 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 3.32 | -3.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.41 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.48 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.48 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 3.59 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.68 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 4.12 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 42.0°F | 37.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 51.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 48.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 37.0°F | 29.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 41.0°F | 35.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 44.0°F | 39.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |