Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 1.58 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.67 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 1.70 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.73 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 1.77 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 1.86 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 1.90 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 1.91 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.93 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 1.95 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.00 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.01 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.03 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.05 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.06 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.07 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.10 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.11 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.13 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.13 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.14 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.16 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.18 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.20 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.27 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 2.35 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.40 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 2.43 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.45 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.64 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.64 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.66 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.68 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.71 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.78 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.78 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.79 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.84 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.86 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.86 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.88 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.89 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 3.00 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.03 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.15 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.18 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.26 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 3.72 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 3.95 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 103.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |