Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.34 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.51 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.78 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.96 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.00 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.19 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.20 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.24 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.24 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.26 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.28 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.28 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.34 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.38 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.39 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.41 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.48 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.48 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.51 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.56 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.57 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.58 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.61 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.67 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.68 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.69 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.70 | -2.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.76 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.78 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.80 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.85 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.98 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 3.01 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 3.06 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 3.22 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.24 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.24 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.24 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.28 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.31 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 3.32 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.35 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.42 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 3.52 | -3.10 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.65 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 3.70 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.87 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 4.13 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 4.22 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 4.32 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 34.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 53.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 60.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 37.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 32.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 30.0°F | 34.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 76.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |