Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.19 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.49 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 1.74 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.77 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.81 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.95 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.01 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.04 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.07 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.09 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.09 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.11 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.15 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.17 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.20 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.22 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.24 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.29 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.33 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.34 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.41 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.42 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.46 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.46 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.50 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.50 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.58 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.59 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.61 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.76 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.78 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.80 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.95 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.03 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.03 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.07 | -2.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.08 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.10 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 3.16 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.16 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.20 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.23 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.27 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.30 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.49 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.56 | 3.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 3.61 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.75 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.78 | -2.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 100.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 87.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 93.0°F | 98.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 80.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 79.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |