Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.28 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.59 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.66 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.78 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.82 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.85 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 1.89 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 1.89 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 1.90 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 1.97 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.97 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 1.99 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.07 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.09 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.20 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.21 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.25 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.28 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.30 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.32 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.39 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.40 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.44 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.44 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.45 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.52 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.57 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.61 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.61 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.66 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.68 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.69 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.74 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.82 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.83 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.84 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.86 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.86 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.86 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.87 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.97 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 3.18 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.20 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 3.40 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.47 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.49 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 3.49 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.52 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.66 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.73 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |