Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 170 | 1.56 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 1.56 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.69 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 1.72 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.87 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.88 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 1.94 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 1.98 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.99 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.01 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.02 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.05 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.07 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.13 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.20 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.24 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.28 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.28 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.30 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.32 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.36 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.37 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.46 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.48 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.50 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.53 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.56 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.64 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.66 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.69 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.70 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.72 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.72 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.75 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.79 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.84 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.85 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.86 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.89 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.92 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.95 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.98 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.01 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.10 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.24 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.30 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.44 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 3.49 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.50 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.91 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 106.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 77.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 78.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 77.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 87.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 101.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |