Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.52 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.70 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.85 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.88 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 1.88 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.89 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 1.91 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.91 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.94 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.95 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 1.96 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.01 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.11 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.13 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.17 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.26 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.28 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.30 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.30 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.32 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.33 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.35 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.35 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.37 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.44 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.46 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.49 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.52 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.52 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.61 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.63 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.70 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.70 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.74 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.76 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.79 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.81 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.81 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.90 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.99 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 3.01 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.03 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.04 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.04 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.08 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.30 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.47 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.51 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.76 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.91 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 71.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 76.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |