Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
49433
2372832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-24 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Juneau AK 179 1.56 0.42 48.0
Austin TX 179 1.66 1.26 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 1.85 -0.94 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 1.86 0.79 48.0
Richmond VA 179 1.87 0.06 48.0
Jackson MS 179 1.88 0.83 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 1.89 -0.18 48.0
Charleston WV 179 1.92 0.24 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 1.94 0.71 48.0
Boise ID 179 1.98 -0.80 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 1.98 1.09 48.0
Lansing MI 179 2.04 0.64 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 2.12 -1.07 48.0
Columbus OH 179 2.13 -1.37 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.21 -0.25 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 2.26 -1.63 48.0
Nashville TN 179 2.30 1.11 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 2.31 0.16 48.0
Albany NY 179 2.32 -0.02 48.0
Providence RI 179 2.33 0.91 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 2.34 2.13 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 2.38 1.41 48.0
Augusta ME 179 2.40 -1.65 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 2.41 1.45 48.0
Springfield IL 179 2.43 1.82 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 2.45 2.13 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.53 1.28 48.0
Salem OR 179 2.55 -0.30 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.55 1.68 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.58 0.87 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.67 2.17 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 2.70 1.28 48.0
Pierre SD 179 2.71 -0.32 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 2.77 1.35 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 2.78 -0.22 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.78 0.57 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 2.84 0.71 48.0
Topeka KS 179 2.85 2.30 48.0
Little Rock AR 179 2.93 -1.07 48.0
Helena MT 179 2.94 -1.12 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 3.02 0.55 48.0
Carson City NV 179 3.03 -2.28 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 3.07 0.87 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 3.08 -1.45 48.0
Concord NH 179 3.12 -1.51 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 3.36 -1.17 48.0
Denver CO 179 3.51 0.20 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 3.55 0.49 48.0
Olympia WA 179 3.83 -1.78 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 3.94 -1.63 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 MDT Denver CO 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Dover DE 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 MDT Boise ID 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 61.0°F 55.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Boston MA 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 66.0°F 60.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 MDT Helena MT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Concord NH 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Albany NY 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0