Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.31 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.32 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 1.56 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 1.59 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 1.63 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 1.65 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.73 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.79 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 1.82 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.05 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.07 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.14 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.20 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.21 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.33 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.34 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.34 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.38 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.39 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.46 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.53 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.54 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.54 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.56 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.60 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.67 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.71 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.76 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.76 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.82 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.83 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.87 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.88 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.89 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.93 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.94 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.05 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.08 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 3.09 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.11 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.11 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 3.20 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.23 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.35 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.37 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.37 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 3.50 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.82 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.83 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 4.15 | -3.44 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 75.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 106.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 93.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 78.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 70.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 65.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 85.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 87.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |