Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
84583
4060032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.52°
9300 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-22 17:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 186 1.52 0.83 48.0
Little Rock AR 186 1.54 0.67 48.0
Jackson MS 186 1.64 0.63 48.0
Richmond VA 186 1.72 -0.82 48.0
Honolulu HI 186 1.80 -1.73 48.0
Boise ID 186 1.85 -0.64 48.0
Augusta ME 186 1.86 -0.53 48.0
Columbia SC 186 1.96 -1.30 48.0
Tallahassee FL 186 1.98 -0.34 48.0
Indianapolis IN 186 1.99 0.04 48.0
Montgomery AL 186 2.00 0.69 48.0
Boston MA 186 2.04 -1.46 48.0
Trenton NJ 186 2.08 -1.09 48.0
Frankfort KY 186 2.13 0.13 48.0
Jefferson City MO 186 2.17 -0.61 48.0
Des Moines IA 186 2.21 1.07 48.0
Helena MT 186 2.23 0.68 48.0
Albany NY 186 2.27 -0.51 48.0
Juneau AK 186 2.32 -0.30 48.0
Nashville TN 186 2.33 1.42 48.0
Dover DE 186 2.39 -1.46 48.0
Cheyenne WY 186 2.40 -0.61 48.0
Annapolis MD 186 2.45 -1.15 48.0
Madison WI 186 2.52 1.60 48.0
Concord NH 186 2.53 -1.16 48.0
Columbus OH 186 2.53 1.02 48.0
Charleston WV 186 2.53 1.30 48.0
Harrisburg PA 186 2.56 -1.56 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 186 2.57 1.91 48.0
Saint Paul MN 186 2.58 0.82 48.0
Pierre SD 186 2.59 1.12 48.0
Bismarck ND 186 2.67 0.20 48.0
Providence RI 186 2.67 -2.35 48.0
Hartford CT 186 2.68 -1.68 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 186 2.78 1.52 48.0
Lansing MI 186 2.83 2.02 48.0
Carson City NV 186 2.87 2.03 48.0
Raleigh NC 186 2.88 -2.09 48.0
Atlanta GA 186 2.93 2.12 48.0
Springfield IL 186 3.00 1.88 48.0
Sacramento CA 186 3.01 2.78 48.0
Denver CO 186 3.03 0.13 48.0
Montpelier VT 186 3.03 1.34 48.0
Santa Fe NM 186 3.04 1.27 48.0
Topeka KS 186 3.20 -2.19 48.0
Lincoln NE 186 3.40 0.45 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 186 3.55 -1.57 48.0
Salem OR 186 3.61 2.81 48.0
Phoenix AZ 186 3.83 -1.12 48.0
Olympia WA 186 3.89 2.77 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 83.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 09:00 AKDT Juneau AK 47.0°F 49.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 10:00 MST Phoenix AZ 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Little Rock AR 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 10:00 PDT Sacramento CA 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 11:00 MDT Denver CO 67.0°F 58.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Hartford CT 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Dover DE 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Atlanta GA 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 07:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 11:00 MDT Boise ID 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Springfield IL 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Des Moines IA 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Topeka KS 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 63.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Augusta ME 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Annapolis MD 69.0°F 62.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Boston MA 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Lansing MI 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 11:00 MDT Helena MT 62.0°F 57.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Lincoln NE 58.0°F 64.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 10:00 PDT Carson City NV 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Concord NH 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Trenton NJ 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 11:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 62.0°F 69.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Albany NY 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Raleigh NC 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Bismarck ND 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Columbus OH 67.0°F 61.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 12:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 10:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Providence RI 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 EDT Columbia SC 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0