Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 1.71 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 1.83 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 1.93 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 1.97 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 2.03 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.14 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.17 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.18 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.20 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.21 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.22 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.26 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.29 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.31 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.39 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.42 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.43 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.44 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.49 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.50 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.52 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.56 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.64 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.65 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.65 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.66 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.66 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.67 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.69 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.71 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.75 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.76 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.77 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.79 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.79 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.87 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.89 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.89 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.94 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 3.02 | -2.50 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.05 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.09 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.15 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.19 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 3.28 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.39 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.46 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.53 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 4.06 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 4.35 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 65.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 59.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 78.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |