Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
44833
2152032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
9150 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-20 14:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 183 1.20 0.51 48.0
Jackson MS 183 1.33 0.64 48.0
Raleigh NC 183 1.38 0.33 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 183 1.55 0.58 48.0
Honolulu HI 183 1.69 -0.42 48.0
Richmond VA 183 1.72 -0.67 48.0
Lansing MI 183 1.84 -0.02 48.0
Providence RI 183 1.85 -0.08 48.0
Little Rock AR 183 1.88 -0.58 48.0
Dover DE 183 1.98 -0.28 48.0
Augusta ME 183 2.09 -0.17 48.0
Hartford CT 183 2.10 0.34 48.0
Albany NY 183 2.14 0.13 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 183 2.14 -0.02 48.0
Harrisburg PA 183 2.19 -0.08 48.0
Saint Paul MN 183 2.21 -0.26 48.0
Sacramento CA 183 2.23 0.47 48.0
Charleston WV 183 2.31 0.41 48.0
Annapolis MD 183 2.33 0.06 48.0
Trenton NJ 183 2.33 0.90 48.0
Boston MA 183 2.35 0.08 48.0
Boise ID 183 2.39 -0.96 48.0
Concord NH 183 2.39 -0.74 48.0
Madison WI 183 2.40 1.05 48.0
Salem OR 183 2.41 0.84 48.0
Nashville TN 183 2.43 2.13 48.0
Columbus OH 183 2.44 0.88 48.0
Montpelier VT 183 2.57 0.28 48.0
Helena MT 183 2.64 -0.50 48.0
Carson City NV 183 2.65 -1.33 48.0
Des Moines IA 183 2.70 0.03 48.0
Pierre SD 183 2.75 -1.60 48.0
Atlanta GA 183 2.78 2.23 48.0
Lincoln NE 183 2.83 1.14 48.0
Columbia SC 183 2.89 2.39 48.0
Indianapolis IN 183 2.95 2.10 48.0
Tallahassee FL 183 2.96 1.53 48.0
Topeka KS 183 2.99 1.99 48.0
Olympia WA 183 3.03 -0.44 48.0
Frankfort KY 183 3.04 2.54 48.0
Bismarck ND 183 3.08 -2.17 48.0
Jefferson City MO 183 3.23 2.75 48.0
Juneau AK 183 3.32 0.90 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 183 3.36 -1.93 48.0
Montgomery AL 183 3.41 1.73 48.0
Santa Fe NM 183 3.42 -1.14 48.0
Phoenix AZ 183 3.48 -1.32 48.0
Cheyenne WY 183 3.62 0.79 48.0
Denver CO 183 3.63 0.99 48.0
Springfield IL 183 3.72 3.30 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Montgomery AL 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 06:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 86.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Little Rock AR 84.0°F 89.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 PDT Sacramento CA 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 MDT Denver CO 70.0°F 63.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Dover DE 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Atlanta GA 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 04:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 MDT Boise ID 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Springfield IL 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Des Moines IA 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Topeka KS 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Augusta ME 71.0°F 77.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Boston MA 76.0°F 81.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Lansing MI 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Jackson MS 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 MDT Helena MT 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Lincoln NE 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 PDT Carson City NV 64.0°F 57.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Concord NH 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Trenton NJ 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 69.0°F 62.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Albany NY 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Raleigh NC 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Bismarck ND 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Columbus OH 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Providence RI 76.0°F 81.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 EDT Columbia SC 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0