Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.39 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.44 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 1.52 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 1.58 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 1.60 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 1.73 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.73 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.79 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 1.82 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.84 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 1.97 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.00 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.18 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.21 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.28 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.30 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.44 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.45 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.46 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.47 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.49 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.50 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.57 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.60 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.61 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.62 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.63 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.69 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.78 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.81 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 2.83 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 2.89 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.96 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.97 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.98 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.99 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.05 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 3.07 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 3.07 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.09 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.12 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.14 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 3.15 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 3.23 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 3.30 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 3.37 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.41 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.64 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.69 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.73 | -2.88 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |