Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 186 | 1.01 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.54 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.58 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 1.60 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 1.78 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.87 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 1.88 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.91 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 1.99 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.01 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.06 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.19 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.23 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.26 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.28 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.28 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.29 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.30 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.34 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.41 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.42 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.44 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.45 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.48 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.49 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.59 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.61 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.69 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.73 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.79 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.79 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.85 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.87 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.87 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.88 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.88 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.94 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.94 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 3.13 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.13 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.18 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.18 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.25 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.28 | -3.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.45 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.46 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.48 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.60 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.78 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 4.10 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |