Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.12 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.49 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 1.58 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 1.64 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.68 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 1.86 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.91 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.96 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.00 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.06 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.12 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.13 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.14 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.18 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.20 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.23 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.24 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.33 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.35 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.40 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.42 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.43 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.43 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.49 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.54 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.56 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.57 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.58 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.59 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.66 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.82 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.89 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.91 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.91 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.94 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.95 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.13 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.13 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.16 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.16 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.16 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.19 | -2.82 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.23 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.32 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.32 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.43 | 3.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.67 | -2.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.70 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.98 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 4.02 | -3.43 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 62.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 104.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 70.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 83.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |