Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.13 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.35 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.60 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 1.62 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.63 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 1.71 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 1.71 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 1.79 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.96 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.96 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.97 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.04 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.04 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.09 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.16 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.16 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.23 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.27 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.32 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.36 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.37 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.40 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.41 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.43 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.44 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.51 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.53 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.54 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.56 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.57 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.60 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.62 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.64 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.68 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.68 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.76 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.80 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.91 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.95 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.02 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 3.25 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.37 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 3.44 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.44 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 3.58 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.63 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 3.85 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 3.99 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 4.24 | 3.76 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 4.65 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 102.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |