Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
55533
2665632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.41°
9050 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-29 12:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Des Moines IA 181 1.60 0.60 48.0
Columbus OH 181 1.70 -1.29 48.0
Richmond VA 181 1.70 -0.56 48.0
Lansing MI 181 1.72 0.55 48.0
Providence RI 181 1.73 -0.57 48.0
Saint Paul MN 181 1.83 0.03 48.0
Pierre SD 181 1.88 0.65 48.0
Augusta ME 181 1.97 -1.34 48.0
Annapolis MD 181 1.97 0.29 48.0
Hartford CT 181 1.99 -0.97 48.0
Trenton NJ 181 1.99 0.99 48.0
Atlanta GA 181 2.00 0.60 48.0
Charleston WV 181 2.01 1.14 48.0
Sacramento CA 181 2.02 0.63 48.0
Salem OR 181 2.02 0.39 48.0
Madison WI 181 2.02 0.81 48.0
Frankfort KY 181 2.04 1.29 48.0
Boston MA 181 2.07 0.01 48.0
Tallahassee FL 181 2.09 0.12 48.0
Nashville TN 181 2.10 0.61 48.0
Lincoln NE 181 2.11 0.59 48.0
Topeka KS 181 2.17 1.11 48.0
Indianapolis IN 181 2.18 -1.60 48.0
Albany NY 181 2.20 -0.78 48.0
Jefferson City MO 181 2.22 1.34 48.0
Honolulu HI 181 2.35 -2.33 48.0
Concord NH 181 2.35 -0.69 48.0
Harrisburg PA 181 2.40 0.14 48.0
Montpelier VT 181 2.40 1.04 48.0
Raleigh NC 181 2.44 0.47 48.0
Juneau AK 181 2.56 1.19 48.0
Columbia SC 181 2.65 -0.06 48.0
Dover DE 181 2.72 -1.05 48.0
Olympia WA 181 2.75 -1.20 48.0
Cheyenne WY 181 2.76 -0.24 48.0
Austin TX 181 2.77 2.31 48.0
Jackson MS 181 2.78 1.51 48.0
Bismarck ND 181 2.78 -0.59 48.0
Montgomery AL 181 2.81 -1.31 48.0
Phoenix AZ 181 2.81 -1.77 48.0
Santa Fe NM 181 2.82 -0.40 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 181 2.86 0.28 48.0
Springfield IL 181 2.88 2.14 48.0
Boise ID 181 2.99 -2.38 48.0
Denver CO 181 3.01 1.19 48.0
Helena MT 181 3.12 0.32 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 181 3.22 0.59 48.0
Carson City NV 181 3.28 -1.14 48.0
Little Rock AR 181 3.64 1.03 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 181 3.83 2.06 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Montgomery AL 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 04:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 05:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 97.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Little Rock AR 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 05:00 PDT Sacramento CA 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 06:00 MDT Denver CO 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Hartford CT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Dover DE 71.0°F 62.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Atlanta GA 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 02:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 06:00 MDT Boise ID 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Springfield IL 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Des Moines IA 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Topeka KS 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Frankfort KY 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Annapolis MD 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Lansing MI 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Jackson MS 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 06:00 MDT Helena MT 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Lincoln NE 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 05:00 PDT Carson City NV 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 06:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Albany NY 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Raleigh NC 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Bismarck ND 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Columbus OH 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 07:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 05:00 PDT Salem OR 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 66.0°F 62.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Providence RI 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 08:00 EDT Columbia SC 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0