Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.14 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.19 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 1.50 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 1.52 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.79 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 1.83 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 1.85 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.88 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.88 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.07 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.09 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.13 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.16 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.17 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.26 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.33 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.36 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.41 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.49 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.51 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.53 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.54 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.61 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.64 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.66 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.69 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.70 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.71 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.71 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.73 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.74 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.75 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.78 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.79 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.83 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.86 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.94 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.99 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 3.10 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.11 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.11 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.12 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.16 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.18 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.21 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.29 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.49 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 3.68 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 4.19 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 4.24 | -3.51 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |