Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.35 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.61 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 1.79 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.83 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.88 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 1.89 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.90 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.99 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.06 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.08 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.09 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.13 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.18 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.19 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.25 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.25 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.26 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.27 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.28 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.28 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.28 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.34 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.43 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.48 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.50 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.57 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.59 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.62 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.67 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.68 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.83 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.87 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.87 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.88 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.89 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.89 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.97 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.00 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.00 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.03 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.14 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.16 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 3.21 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.30 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.36 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 3.38 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.49 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.54 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.63 | 3.15 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.67 | -2.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 74.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 79.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |