Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 181 | 1.80 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.92 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 1.99 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.01 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.04 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.15 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.16 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.18 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.18 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.19 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.19 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.19 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.24 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.26 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.35 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.36 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.39 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.40 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.45 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.49 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.49 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.49 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.49 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.49 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.52 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.53 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.56 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.57 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.59 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.59 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.62 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.69 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.70 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.70 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.77 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.85 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.86 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.94 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.96 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 3.08 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.09 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.25 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.34 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.43 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 3.46 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.50 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.67 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.82 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.92 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 4.28 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 61.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |