Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
36583
1756032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
9300 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-13 17:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 186 0.97 0.43 48.0
Topeka KS 186 1.79 0.31 48.0
Providence RI 186 1.82 -0.53 48.0
Boise ID 186 1.94 0.56 48.0
Albany NY 186 1.95 -0.51 48.0
Tallahassee FL 186 2.06 -0.46 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 186 2.15 0.82 48.0
Juneau AK 186 2.16 -0.59 48.0
Augusta ME 186 2.19 -0.45 48.0
Salem OR 186 2.19 0.55 48.0
Richmond VA 186 2.20 0.54 48.0
Madison WI 186 2.20 -0.04 48.0
Honolulu HI 186 2.22 -2.19 48.0
Lansing MI 186 2.23 -0.18 48.0
Hartford CT 186 2.31 -0.22 48.0
Trenton NJ 186 2.33 0.62 48.0
Boston MA 186 2.34 -0.96 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 186 2.34 -1.37 48.0
Montpelier VT 186 2.35 1.45 48.0
Concord NH 186 2.36 -1.38 48.0
Little Rock AR 186 2.39 0.79 48.0
Des Moines IA 186 2.39 -0.99 48.0
Carson City NV 186 2.41 -0.65 48.0
Raleigh NC 186 2.47 0.13 48.0
Jackson MS 186 2.51 2.04 48.0
Phoenix AZ 186 2.52 0.47 48.0
Helena MT 186 2.55 0.78 48.0
Dover DE 186 2.58 -0.25 48.0
Springfield IL 186 2.58 1.53 48.0
Denver CO 186 2.60 0.39 48.0
Atlanta GA 186 2.62 1.92 48.0
Nashville TN 186 2.63 2.37 48.0
Columbia SC 186 2.68 1.11 48.0
Montgomery AL 186 2.69 -1.49 48.0
Annapolis MD 186 2.72 1.18 48.0
Bismarck ND 186 2.85 -0.75 48.0
Saint Paul MN 186 2.87 -0.81 48.0
Lincoln NE 186 2.89 0.44 48.0
Cheyenne WY 186 2.96 -0.50 48.0
Harrisburg PA 186 2.99 1.44 48.0
Jefferson City MO 186 3.02 2.56 48.0
Santa Fe NM 186 3.05 -1.99 48.0
Olympia WA 186 3.06 0.43 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 186 3.51 2.24 48.0
Pierre SD 186 3.54 0.95 48.0
Columbus OH 186 3.82 2.66 48.0
Indianapolis IN 186 3.98 0.63 48.0
Frankfort KY 186 4.02 3.46 48.0
Charleston WV 186 4.06 2.72 48.0
Sacramento CA 186 4.30 4.27 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Montgomery AL 91.0°F 95.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 09:00 AKDT Juneau AK 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 10:00 MST Phoenix AZ 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Little Rock AR 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 10:00 PDT Sacramento CA 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 11:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Hartford CT 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Dover DE 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Atlanta GA 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 07:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 11:00 MDT Boise ID 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Springfield IL 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Topeka KS 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Frankfort KY 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Augusta ME 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Annapolis MD 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Boston MA 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Lansing MI 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Jackson MS 94.0°F 89.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 11:00 MDT Helena MT 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Lincoln NE 78.0°F 83.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 10:00 PDT Carson City NV 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Concord NH 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Trenton NJ 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 11:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Albany NY 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Raleigh NC 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Bismarck ND 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Columbus OH 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 12:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 95.0°F 98.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 10:00 PDT Salem OR 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Providence RI 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 13:00 EDT Columbia SC 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 48.0