Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.80 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.95 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.95 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.99 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.02 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.14 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.16 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.17 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.17 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.17 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.22 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.25 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.26 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.26 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.33 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.35 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.35 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.38 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.45 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.45 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.45 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.46 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.48 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.49 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.49 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.55 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.56 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.58 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.59 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.60 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.65 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.66 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.66 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.72 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.77 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.81 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.82 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.96 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 3.04 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 3.07 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.10 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.21 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.36 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 3.43 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.49 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.52 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.66 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.85 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.89 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 4.23 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 61.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 71.0°F | -14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 56.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |