Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
73833
3544032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.60°
9350 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-13 18:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 187 1.59 -0.18 48.0
Richmond VA 187 1.62 -0.59 48.0
Little Rock AR 187 1.83 0.38 48.0
Trenton NJ 187 1.84 -1.16 48.0
Jackson MS 187 1.90 0.29 48.0
Charleston WV 187 1.91 1.17 48.0
Lansing MI 187 1.93 0.41 48.0
Austin TX 187 1.93 0.59 48.0
Albany NY 187 1.94 -0.44 48.0
Jefferson City MO 187 1.95 0.34 48.0
Columbus OH 187 1.95 0.14 48.0
Honolulu HI 187 1.96 -1.14 48.0
Annapolis MD 187 1.96 -1.13 48.0
Sacramento CA 187 1.98 -0.07 48.0
Saint Paul MN 187 2.07 -0.55 48.0
Raleigh NC 187 2.18 -1.17 48.0
Harrisburg PA 187 2.20 -1.04 48.0
Nashville TN 187 2.24 -0.31 48.0
Salem OR 187 2.27 -0.39 48.0
Phoenix AZ 187 2.33 -1.52 48.0
Columbia SC 187 2.34 0.05 48.0
Hartford CT 187 2.39 -0.53 48.0
Augusta ME 187 2.40 0.22 48.0
Providence RI 187 2.45 -1.71 48.0
Atlanta GA 187 2.58 1.17 48.0
Madison WI 187 2.59 0.64 48.0
Frankfort KY 187 2.71 0.43 48.0
Cheyenne WY 187 2.71 0.71 48.0
Bismarck ND 187 2.72 0.50 48.0
Boston MA 187 2.75 -0.92 48.0
Dover DE 187 2.78 -1.99 48.0
Montgomery AL 187 2.82 0.60 48.0
Boise ID 187 2.85 -1.19 48.0
Concord NH 187 2.86 0.43 48.0
Des Moines IA 187 2.91 1.99 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 187 3.05 1.24 48.0
Helena MT 187 3.07 -1.14 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 187 3.07 0.78 48.0
Tallahassee FL 187 3.13 0.05 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 187 3.16 -1.68 48.0
Topeka KS 187 3.21 2.52 48.0
Olympia WA 187 3.24 0.64 48.0
Lincoln NE 187 3.26 2.19 48.0
Denver CO 187 3.46 1.65 48.0
Montpelier VT 187 3.50 1.80 48.0
Pierre SD 187 3.57 2.37 48.0
Carson City NV 187 3.66 -1.51 48.0
Springfield IL 187 3.68 2.73 48.0
Juneau AK 187 3.83 1.18 48.0
Santa Fe NM 187 3.86 -2.69 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 10:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 58.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 11:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 96.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Little Rock AR 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 11:00 PDT Sacramento CA 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 12:00 MDT Denver CO 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Hartford CT 77.0°F 67.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Atlanta GA 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 08:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 12:00 MDT Boise ID 59.0°F 63.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Springfield IL 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Des Moines IA 69.0°F 58.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Topeka KS 85.0°F 68.0°F +17.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Frankfort KY 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 62.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Lansing MI 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 62.0°F 68.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 85.0°F 80.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 12:00 MDT Helena MT 52.0°F 59.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Lincoln NE 75.0°F 62.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 11:00 PDT Carson City NV 65.0°F 75.0°F -10.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Concord NH 74.0°F 66.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Trenton NJ 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 12:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Albany NY 79.0°F 70.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Raleigh NC 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Bismarck ND 57.0°F 65.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Columbus OH 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 93.0°F 97.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 11:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Providence RI 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 EDT Columbia SC 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0