Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.28 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.57 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.71 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.78 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.83 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 1.84 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 1.87 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 1.92 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 1.96 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.96 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 1.97 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 1.98 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.99 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.09 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.18 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.20 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.20 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.25 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.28 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.29 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.34 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.44 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.45 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.45 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.46 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.49 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.51 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.53 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.56 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.58 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.65 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.69 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.72 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.76 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.77 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.78 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.78 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.81 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.84 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.85 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.94 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 3.21 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.23 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.33 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 3.38 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.41 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.43 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.56 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.71 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.79 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 75.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 76.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 78.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 58.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |