Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.33 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 1.36 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 1.55 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.56 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.75 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 1.82 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 1.86 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 1.88 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 1.91 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 1.95 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.03 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.17 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.18 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.19 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.28 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.30 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.31 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.32 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.37 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.38 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.40 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.40 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.42 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 2.46 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.47 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.51 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.52 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.57 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.59 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.69 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.73 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 2.81 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.81 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.85 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.88 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.92 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.93 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.95 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.98 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.99 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 3.07 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 3.23 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 3.39 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.45 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.52 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.56 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.58 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.59 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.64 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.70 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 98.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 66.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |