Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
66533
3193632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
9250 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-07 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 185 1.29 -0.69 48.0
Little Rock AR 185 1.33 0.77 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 1.56 0.34 48.0
Jefferson City MO 185 1.66 0.85 48.0
Nashville TN 185 1.69 1.10 48.0
Honolulu HI 185 1.76 -1.38 48.0
Raleigh NC 185 1.77 0.55 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 1.80 0.57 48.0
Salem OR 185 1.81 1.02 48.0
Austin TX 185 1.97 -0.16 48.0
Columbus OH 185 1.98 0.36 48.0
Columbia SC 185 2.05 0.21 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 2.24 0.96 48.0
Jackson MS 185 2.24 1.34 48.0
Albany NY 185 2.26 0.52 48.0
Augusta ME 185 2.29 0.29 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.38 0.71 48.0
Topeka KS 185 2.46 1.54 48.0
Saint Paul MN 185 2.48 0.42 48.0
Springfield IL 185 2.51 2.32 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 2.52 1.85 48.0
Charleston WV 185 2.55 2.29 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.58 1.39 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 2.59 -1.04 48.0
Dover DE 185 2.61 0.36 48.0
Concord NH 185 2.63 -0.82 48.0
Hartford CT 185 2.69 0.15 48.0
Lansing MI 185 2.70 1.71 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 2.73 1.29 48.0
Madison WI 185 2.77 2.16 48.0
Richmond VA 185 2.81 1.34 48.0
Providence RI 185 2.82 -0.64 48.0
Trenton NJ 185 2.92 0.23 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 185 2.92 1.96 48.0
Harrisburg PA 185 2.92 0.95 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 2.95 0.45 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 2.98 -1.70 48.0
Olympia WA 185 2.98 -0.30 48.0
Juneau AK 185 2.99 0.07 48.0
Helena MT 185 3.08 -0.80 48.0
Carson City NV 185 3.10 -2.29 48.0
Lincoln NE 185 3.12 2.71 48.0
Denver CO 185 3.22 -0.03 48.0
Bismarck ND 185 3.25 1.28 48.0
Montgomery AL 185 3.44 -0.17 48.0
Santa Fe NM 185 3.51 -1.44 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 3.67 -2.06 48.0
Boise ID 185 3.69 1.22 48.0
Pierre SD 185 3.91 1.86 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 4.28 -3.61 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 10:00 MDT Denver CO 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 71.0°F 76.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Dover DE 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 10:00 MDT Boise ID 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 68.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 10:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 59.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 54.0°F 57.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Concord NH 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 71.0°F 78.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Albany NY 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 91.0°F 95.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 09:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Providence RI 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 12:00 EDT Columbia SC 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0