Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.60 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.64 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 1.79 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 1.82 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.83 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.87 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 1.90 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.94 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.95 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.01 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.01 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.07 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.13 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.22 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.24 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.29 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.29 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.32 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.33 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.36 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.38 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.39 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.45 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.46 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.47 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.50 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.61 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.63 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.71 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.79 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.83 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.84 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.84 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.85 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.88 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.89 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.90 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.91 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.94 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.96 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 3.07 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.21 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.21 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.34 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.39 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.41 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.42 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.43 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.78 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.79 | 3.18 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 100.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 79.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |