Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.44 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 1.69 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.69 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.77 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.80 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 1.88 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.88 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 1.98 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.02 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.05 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.05 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.07 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.11 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.15 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 2.16 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.23 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.29 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.30 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.31 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.40 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.41 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.44 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.45 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.49 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.51 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.54 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.56 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.59 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.61 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.63 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.65 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.72 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.76 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.77 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.79 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.81 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.88 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.97 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 3.04 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.16 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.20 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 3.27 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.34 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.49 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.53 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.55 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.63 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.65 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.66 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 4.08 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 82.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 37.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |