Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.39 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 1.50 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.60 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 1.67 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.75 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 1.80 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.92 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.96 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.01 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.02 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.04 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.04 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.09 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.11 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.14 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.17 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.18 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.25 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.29 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.29 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.30 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.33 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.34 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.36 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.40 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.43 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.45 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.53 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.61 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.68 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 2.69 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.72 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.73 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.73 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.74 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.81 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.83 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.83 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.90 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.03 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.03 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.07 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.12 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.13 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.18 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 3.28 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.36 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.45 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.68 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 4.21 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 42.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 89.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 55.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |