Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.61 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 1.67 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 1.71 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 1.75 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.75 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 1.78 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 1.82 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 1.89 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 1.91 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.98 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 1.99 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.04 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.04 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.05 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.07 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.09 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.14 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.14 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.14 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.17 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.24 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 2.25 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.27 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.29 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.30 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.32 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.38 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.38 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.40 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.43 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.45 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.62 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.72 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.72 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.79 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.79 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.83 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.85 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.88 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.89 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.91 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.96 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 3.02 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.05 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.07 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.16 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 3.30 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 3.31 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.45 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 59.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |