Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.41 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.77 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 1.87 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.87 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.95 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 1.97 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 1.98 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 1.99 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.09 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.11 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.26 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.26 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.26 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.31 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.32 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.32 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.33 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.38 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.41 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.42 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.43 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.48 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.49 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.58 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.62 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.63 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.66 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.66 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.72 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.74 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.74 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.74 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.75 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.77 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.78 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.80 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.85 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.86 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.86 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.94 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.98 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.06 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.21 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.23 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.45 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.59 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.60 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.67 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.75 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.78 | -2.79 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 101.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |