Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
47533
2281632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
9450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-22 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 189 1.58 1.14 48.0
Richmond VA 189 1.78 -0.13 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 1.83 -0.34 48.0
Jackson MS 189 1.88 1.08 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 1.89 -0.35 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 2.06 1.01 48.0
Dover DE 189 2.08 0.25 48.0
Lansing MI 189 2.08 0.29 48.0
Charleston WV 189 2.11 0.54 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 2.16 0.57 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 2.22 1.25 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 2.23 1.87 48.0
Boise ID 189 2.33 -1.23 48.0
Albany NY 189 2.33 1.06 48.0
Columbus OH 189 2.34 -0.63 48.0
Providence RI 189 2.34 0.30 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 2.37 0.74 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.37 0.55 48.0
Helena MT 189 2.42 -1.23 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 2.47 -1.23 48.0
Augusta ME 189 2.48 -1.28 48.0
Madison WI 189 2.49 1.33 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 2.51 1.38 48.0
Nashville TN 189 2.53 1.60 48.0
Indianapolis IN 189 2.56 0.43 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 2.57 1.35 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 2.61 2.19 48.0
Juneau AK 189 2.63 0.65 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 2.68 -1.38 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 2.69 -0.66 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 2.70 1.21 48.0
Hartford CT 189 2.74 0.65 48.0
Carson City NV 189 2.75 -2.00 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.84 2.46 48.0
Concord NH 189 2.84 -1.41 48.0
Pierre SD 189 2.87 -0.77 48.0
Topeka KS 189 2.88 2.14 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 2.90 0.63 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 2.90 1.16 48.0
Columbia SC 189 2.92 2.16 48.0
Salem OR 189 2.95 0.60 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 2.98 1.51 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 3.11 1.46 48.0
Springfield IL 189 3.14 2.63 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 3.32 -0.39 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 3.44 -1.60 48.0
Olympia WA 189 3.57 -1.03 48.0
Denver CO 189 3.58 0.79 48.0
Cheyenne WY 189 3.64 0.52 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 3.68 -2.40 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 94.0°F 97.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 62.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 110.0°F 109.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 96.0°F 100.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 MDT Denver CO 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 68.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Dover DE 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 89.0°F 80.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 MDT Boise ID 93.0°F 96.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 99.0°F 96.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 98.0°F 98.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 MDT Helena MT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Concord NH 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 103.0°F 93.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 PDT Salem OR 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Providence RI 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0