Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.01 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 1.79 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 1.82 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 1.82 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 1.87 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 1.88 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 1.93 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.10 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.17 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.18 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.18 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.27 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.28 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.29 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 2.30 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.31 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 2.31 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.32 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.32 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.35 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.36 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.47 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.52 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.58 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.60 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.61 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.63 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.66 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.66 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.68 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.71 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.73 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.75 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.76 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.78 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.96 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 3.08 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.18 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 3.18 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.21 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.32 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.34 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.48 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.56 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 3.62 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 3.70 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 3.73 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 3.77 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.93 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 98.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 101.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 70.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 69.0°F | +19.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 70.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 102.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |