Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 188 | 1.71 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 1.74 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 1.77 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.93 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 2.00 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.10 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.19 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.20 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.21 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.21 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.26 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.30 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.32 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.34 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.36 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.37 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.39 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.43 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.43 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.47 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.48 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.51 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.51 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.56 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.57 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.59 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.60 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.62 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.64 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.66 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.66 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.69 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.71 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.79 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.85 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.86 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.88 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.88 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.90 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.94 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.01 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 3.05 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.07 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.14 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.20 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.34 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 3.42 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.54 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.87 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.88 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 71.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 66.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |