Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
45233
2171232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.54°
9550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-20 22:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 191 1.26 0.60 48.0
Jackson MS 191 1.30 0.62 48.0
Raleigh NC 191 1.44 0.42 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 191 1.60 0.66 48.0
Honolulu HI 191 1.69 -0.39 48.0
Richmond VA 191 1.76 -0.76 48.0
Lansing MI 191 1.82 0.03 48.0
Providence RI 191 1.88 -0.17 48.0
Dover DE 191 1.96 -0.21 48.0
Little Rock AR 191 2.05 -0.80 48.0
Augusta ME 191 2.10 -0.26 48.0
Hartford CT 191 2.19 0.40 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 191 2.20 -0.17 48.0
Saint Paul MN 191 2.23 -0.16 48.0
Harrisburg PA 191 2.25 0.08 48.0
Sacramento CA 191 2.28 0.60 48.0
Charleston WV 191 2.28 0.43 48.0
Albany NY 191 2.29 0.28 48.0
Trenton NJ 191 2.34 0.97 48.0
Boston MA 191 2.35 0.08 48.0
Annapolis MD 191 2.36 -0.01 48.0
Madison WI 191 2.36 1.01 48.0
Boise ID 191 2.40 -1.03 48.0
Columbus OH 191 2.42 0.76 48.0
Concord NH 191 2.44 -0.83 48.0
Nashville TN 191 2.45 2.15 48.0
Salem OR 191 2.46 0.66 48.0
Carson City NV 191 2.55 -1.29 48.0
Helena MT 191 2.61 -0.45 48.0
Montpelier VT 191 2.64 0.46 48.0
Des Moines IA 191 2.70 -0.08 48.0
Pierre SD 191 2.71 -1.59 48.0
Lincoln NE 191 2.77 1.12 48.0
Atlanta GA 191 2.80 2.26 48.0
Indianapolis IN 191 2.90 1.94 48.0
Topeka KS 191 2.90 1.93 48.0
Columbia SC 191 2.95 2.46 48.0
Frankfort KY 191 2.98 2.48 48.0
Tallahassee FL 191 3.03 1.65 48.0
Bismarck ND 191 3.05 -2.18 48.0
Jefferson City MO 191 3.16 2.63 48.0
Olympia WA 191 3.17 -0.69 48.0
Juneau AK 191 3.26 0.93 48.0
Montgomery AL 191 3.39 1.77 48.0
Santa Fe NM 191 3.43 -1.09 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 191 3.43 -2.06 48.0
Phoenix AZ 191 3.57 -1.03 48.0
Cheyenne WY 191 3.57 0.70 48.0
Springfield IL 191 3.62 3.10 48.0
Denver CO 191 3.66 1.13 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Montgomery AL 96.0°F 93.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 14:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 MST Phoenix AZ 108.0°F 103.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Little Rock AR 97.0°F 104.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 PDT Sacramento CA 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 MDT Denver CO 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Hartford CT 79.0°F 68.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Dover DE 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 90.0°F 81.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Atlanta GA 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 HST Honolulu HI 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 MDT Boise ID 97.0°F 99.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Springfield IL 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Des Moines IA 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Topeka KS 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Frankfort KY 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Augusta ME 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Annapolis MD 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Boston MA 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Lansing MI 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Jackson MS 98.0°F 98.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 MDT Helena MT 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Lincoln NE 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 PDT Carson City NV 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Concord NH 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Trenton NJ 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 83.0°F 89.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Albany NY 75.0°F 65.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Raleigh NC 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Bismarck ND 86.0°F 89.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Columbus OH 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 17:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 101.0°F 105.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 PDT Salem OR 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 76.0°F 70.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Providence RI 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 18:00 EDT Columbia SC 94.0°F 95.0°F -1.0° 48.0