Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.02 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.69 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 1.72 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.84 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 1.91 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 1.92 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.03 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.09 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.13 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.13 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 2.15 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.16 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.19 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.22 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.22 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.25 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.29 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.29 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.35 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.42 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.43 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.43 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.44 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.47 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.48 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.51 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.52 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.52 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.54 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.54 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.56 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.56 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.59 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.60 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.79 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.80 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.82 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.92 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.94 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.96 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 3.08 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.09 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.57 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.69 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 4.02 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 4.08 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 4.09 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 4.17 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 4.39 | 4.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 89.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 80.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 79.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |