Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.53 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.70 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 1.71 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.71 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 1.78 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.83 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 1.87 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.91 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.97 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.01 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.02 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.04 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.14 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.26 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.26 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.30 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.31 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.31 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.32 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.35 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.35 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.36 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.38 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.38 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.43 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.47 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.48 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.55 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.58 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.61 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.73 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.73 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.76 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.87 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.96 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.99 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 3.01 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 3.07 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.07 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.17 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.23 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.25 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.31 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.49 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.61 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 3.99 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 4.05 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 4.27 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 4.52 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 46.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |