Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 185 | 0.93 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.63 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.65 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.68 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 1.70 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.72 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 1.87 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.92 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 1.94 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 1.99 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.03 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.04 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.08 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.17 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.19 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.21 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.26 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.32 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.34 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.41 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.46 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.46 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.49 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.50 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.52 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.52 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.54 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.58 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.66 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.66 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.68 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.76 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.79 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.83 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.84 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.85 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.88 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.90 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.92 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.99 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.25 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.29 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.33 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.49 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.61 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.63 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.65 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.66 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.86 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 4.18 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |