Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.11 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.22 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.57 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 1.64 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.70 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 1.79 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 1.79 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 1.82 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.85 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.02 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.02 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.05 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.09 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.09 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.11 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.21 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.25 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.26 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.33 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.38 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.38 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.38 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.40 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.40 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.43 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.51 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.53 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.53 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.60 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.64 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.67 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.68 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.73 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.86 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.89 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.92 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 3.08 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 3.10 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.18 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.20 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.37 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 3.43 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.47 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.49 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 3.52 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 3.62 | 3.25 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.89 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 4.30 | 3.91 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 4.32 | 3.72 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 4.61 | 4.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 98.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 110.0°F | 111.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 79.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 102.0°F | 105.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |