Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 178 | 1.55 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.58 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.70 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 1.74 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.88 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.89 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 1.92 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.95 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.98 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.99 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.02 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.07 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.07 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.08 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.16 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.22 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.24 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.25 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.26 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.39 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.42 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.43 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.46 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.48 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.49 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.61 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.63 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.65 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 2.65 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.68 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.69 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.74 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.77 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.79 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.79 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.79 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.80 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.83 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.86 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.87 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.92 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.92 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.96 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.12 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.25 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.37 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.38 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 3.50 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.51 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.87 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |