Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.13 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.27 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 1.49 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 1.55 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.65 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 1.83 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 1.85 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.89 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 1.96 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 1.97 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.04 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.14 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.17 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.21 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.26 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.35 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.39 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.40 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.46 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.56 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.58 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 2.58 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.61 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.62 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.66 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.66 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.68 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.68 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.69 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.72 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.73 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.74 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.80 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.81 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.83 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.87 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 2.98 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.02 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.03 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 3.15 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 3.21 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.21 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.28 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.29 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.40 | -3.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.50 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 3.62 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.90 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 4.26 | -4.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 95.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |