Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.53 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.56 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 1.83 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.83 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 1.92 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 1.99 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.01 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.10 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.11 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.14 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.16 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.17 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.25 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.26 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.26 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.27 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.28 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.29 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.31 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.42 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.43 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.49 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.55 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.58 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.61 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.62 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.65 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.67 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.71 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.74 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.75 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.79 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.79 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.80 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.81 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.84 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.87 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.88 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.97 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.99 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 3.08 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 3.18 | 3.00 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.23 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.29 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.34 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.58 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 3.65 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.66 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 3.68 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.81 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 87.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |