Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.62 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.74 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 1.83 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.85 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 1.88 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.92 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 1.95 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 1.96 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.96 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.98 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.99 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.01 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.10 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.20 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.21 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.25 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.28 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.31 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.39 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.40 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.40 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.41 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.41 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.42 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.45 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.54 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.63 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.66 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.72 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.76 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.77 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.79 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.80 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.81 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.84 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.85 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.89 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.93 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.94 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.97 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.16 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.29 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.29 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.30 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.42 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.47 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 3.60 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.62 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.63 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.76 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 100.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 77.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 63.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 104.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |