Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.70 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 1.81 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.85 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 1.86 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 1.87 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.88 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.91 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 1.92 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 1.94 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.04 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.05 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.07 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.12 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 2.14 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.14 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.17 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.21 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.29 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.29 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.30 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.41 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.42 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.43 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.44 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.45 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.46 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.51 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.54 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.56 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.59 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.59 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.60 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.62 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.63 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.65 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.66 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.72 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.76 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.79 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.83 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.90 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.00 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.04 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.05 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.11 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.14 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.14 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.24 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 3.51 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.83 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 113.0°F | 114.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 92.0°F | 96.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 78.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 86.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 75.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |