Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 1.79 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 1.83 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 1.86 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.95 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 1.95 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 1.99 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.05 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.14 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.19 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.21 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.23 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.24 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.28 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.32 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.33 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.34 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.37 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.42 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.43 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.43 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.43 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.43 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.49 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.58 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.59 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.59 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.63 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.65 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.66 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.72 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.73 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.76 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.77 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.80 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.82 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.91 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.92 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.94 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.95 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.00 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 3.13 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.14 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 3.20 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.22 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 3.22 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 3.49 | 3.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.52 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.92 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.96 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 4.04 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 87.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 87.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |