Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
85183
4088832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.59°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-23 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 174 1.41 0.23 48.0
Little Rock AR 174 1.48 0.54 48.0
Juneau AK 174 1.59 -0.82 48.0
Austin TX 174 1.60 0.87 48.0
Boise ID 174 1.86 -0.62 48.0
Honolulu HI 174 1.89 -1.82 48.0
Augusta ME 174 1.95 -0.67 48.0
Richmond VA 174 1.97 -0.69 48.0
Des Moines IA 174 2.07 0.63 48.0
Jefferson City MO 174 2.10 -0.34 48.0
Columbia SC 174 2.10 -0.71 48.0
Boston MA 174 2.13 -1.62 48.0
Tallahassee FL 174 2.17 -0.26 48.0
Helena MT 174 2.18 0.55 48.0
Trenton NJ 174 2.18 -1.44 48.0
Montgomery AL 174 2.19 0.95 48.0
Indianapolis IN 174 2.25 0.36 48.0
Albany NY 174 2.34 -0.59 48.0
Saint Paul MN 174 2.39 0.79 48.0
Dover DE 174 2.52 -1.55 48.0
Frankfort KY 174 2.54 0.66 48.0
Pierre SD 174 2.55 1.20 48.0
Lansing MI 174 2.56 1.70 48.0
Annapolis MD 174 2.59 -0.78 48.0
Carson City NV 174 2.61 1.63 48.0
Madison WI 174 2.64 1.65 48.0
Concord NH 174 2.68 -1.19 48.0
Harrisburg PA 174 2.68 -1.71 48.0
Bismarck ND 174 2.71 0.74 48.0
Providence RI 174 2.72 -2.43 48.0
Cheyenne WY 174 2.74 -1.04 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 174 2.77 1.43 48.0
Hartford CT 174 2.81 -1.79 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 174 2.83 2.18 48.0
Atlanta GA 174 2.84 2.02 48.0
Springfield IL 174 2.85 1.67 48.0
Charleston WV 174 2.90 1.73 48.0
Topeka KS 174 2.91 -1.93 48.0
Columbus OH 174 2.92 1.46 48.0
Nashville TN 174 2.92 2.13 48.0
Denver CO 174 2.97 0.22 48.0
Lincoln NE 174 3.07 -0.30 48.0
Raleigh NC 174 3.10 -1.78 48.0
Montpelier VT 174 3.13 1.43 48.0
Sacramento CA 174 3.21 3.13 48.0
Santa Fe NM 174 3.28 1.27 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 174 3.66 -1.77 48.0
Salem OR 174 3.76 2.73 48.0
Phoenix AZ 174 3.95 -1.31 48.0
Olympia WA 174 3.98 2.63 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 48.0°F 50.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 86.0°F 92.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 23:00 MDT Denver CO 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Dover DE 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 23:00 MDT Boise ID 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 53.0°F 59.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 46.0°F 45.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Boston MA 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 54.0°F 50.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 50.0°F 52.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 23:00 MDT Helena MT 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Concord NH 46.0°F 43.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 56.0°F 59.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Albany NY 49.0°F 49.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 71.0°F 65.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 22:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 56.0°F 60.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Providence RI 51.0°F 52.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0