Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.56 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 1.77 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 1.79 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 1.79 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.83 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 1.88 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.88 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.93 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 1.98 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.09 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.13 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.13 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 2.14 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.17 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.17 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.20 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.27 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.30 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.35 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.36 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.40 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.42 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.43 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.44 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.45 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.47 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.53 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.58 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.60 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.61 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.66 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.67 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.68 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.71 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.79 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.80 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.81 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.99 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 3.01 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.14 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 3.25 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.35 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.36 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.49 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.51 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.51 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.53 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.54 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.88 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 4.22 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 65.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 86.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |