Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.25 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.58 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.60 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 1.65 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.70 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 1.84 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.92 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.93 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.93 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 1.93 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 1.94 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.03 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.04 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.11 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.26 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.28 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.34 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.35 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.40 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.42 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.44 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.44 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.45 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.48 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.51 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.53 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.55 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.60 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.63 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.67 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.70 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.73 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.79 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.80 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.97 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 3.00 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.02 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 3.02 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 3.05 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.12 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.15 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 3.33 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.38 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.42 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.47 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.50 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.63 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 4.04 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 4.12 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 4.19 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 85.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 74.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 59.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 56.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |