Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.52 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.55 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.65 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.77 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.82 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 1.84 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 1.87 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 1.98 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 1.99 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.02 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.05 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.06 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.09 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.16 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.19 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.21 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.25 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.27 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.31 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.41 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.46 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.46 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.50 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.51 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.55 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.55 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.56 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.57 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.59 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.59 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.64 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.69 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.70 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.70 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.80 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.82 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.85 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.86 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.93 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.99 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.01 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 3.02 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.04 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.07 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.21 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 3.40 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.54 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 3.59 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.79 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.85 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 78.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 66.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 73.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |