Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
47433
2276832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
9350 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-22 18:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 187 1.58 1.14 48.0
Richmond VA 187 1.79 -0.12 48.0
Honolulu HI 187 1.82 -0.32 48.0
Jackson MS 187 1.90 1.09 48.0
Saint Paul MN 187 1.91 -0.35 48.0
Lansing MI 187 2.05 0.26 48.0
Raleigh NC 187 2.05 0.99 48.0
Dover DE 187 2.06 0.21 48.0
Charleston WV 187 2.11 0.53 48.0
Sacramento CA 187 2.18 0.57 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 187 2.21 1.85 48.0
Frankfort KY 187 2.22 1.26 48.0
Boise ID 187 2.31 -1.20 48.0
Albany NY 187 2.34 1.10 48.0
Columbus OH 187 2.34 -0.63 48.0
Providence RI 187 2.34 0.27 48.0
Annapolis MD 187 2.35 0.70 48.0
Boston MA 187 2.37 0.53 48.0
Helena MT 187 2.42 -1.27 48.0
Little Rock AR 187 2.43 -1.18 48.0
Augusta ME 187 2.48 -1.27 48.0
Madison WI 187 2.51 1.33 48.0
Trenton NJ 187 2.52 1.39 48.0
Indianapolis IN 187 2.54 0.48 48.0
Nashville TN 187 2.56 1.61 48.0
Harrisburg PA 187 2.57 1.37 48.0
Jefferson City MO 187 2.61 2.19 48.0
Juneau AK 187 2.62 0.70 48.0
Des Moines IA 187 2.70 -0.64 48.0
Hartford CT 187 2.71 0.60 48.0
Lincoln NE 187 2.71 1.24 48.0
Bismarck ND 187 2.71 -1.40 48.0
Carson City NV 187 2.77 -2.01 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 187 2.83 0.54 48.0
Atlanta GA 187 2.86 2.49 48.0
Concord NH 187 2.87 -1.42 48.0
Topeka KS 187 2.88 2.13 48.0
Pierre SD 187 2.89 -0.78 48.0
Columbia SC 187 2.90 2.13 48.0
Montpelier VT 187 2.93 1.16 48.0
Tallahassee FL 187 2.95 1.49 48.0
Salem OR 187 2.96 0.59 48.0
Montgomery AL 187 3.12 1.50 48.0
Springfield IL 187 3.17 2.67 48.0
Santa Fe NM 187 3.34 -0.38 48.0
Phoenix AZ 187 3.47 -1.64 48.0
Olympia WA 187 3.53 -0.97 48.0
Denver CO 187 3.60 0.81 48.0
Cheyenne WY 187 3.63 0.48 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 187 3.72 -2.43 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Montgomery AL 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 10:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 59.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 11:00 MST Phoenix AZ 105.0°F 104.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Little Rock AR 96.0°F 105.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 11:00 PDT Sacramento CA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 12:00 MDT Denver CO 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Hartford CT 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Dover DE 80.0°F 72.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 08:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 12:00 MDT Boise ID 87.0°F 93.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Springfield IL 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Des Moines IA 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Topeka KS 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Frankfort KY 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 97.0°F 93.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Augusta ME 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Annapolis MD 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Lansing MI 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Jackson MS 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 12:00 MDT Helena MT 80.0°F 73.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Lincoln NE 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 11:00 PDT Carson City NV 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Concord NH 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Trenton NJ 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 12:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Albany NY 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Raleigh NC 85.0°F 80.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Bismarck ND 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Columbus OH 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 13:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 98.0°F 94.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 11:00 PDT Salem OR 66.0°F 62.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Providence RI 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-22 14:00 EDT Columbia SC 90.0°F 83.0°F +7.0° 48.0