Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
43933
2108832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
9450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-19 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 189 1.10 0.34 48.0
Jackson MS 189 1.26 0.76 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 1.57 -0.31 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 1.61 0.37 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 1.71 -0.49 48.0
Richmond VA 189 1.80 -0.47 48.0
Lansing MI 189 1.81 0.20 48.0
Providence RI 189 1.81 0.08 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 1.87 1.01 48.0
Albany NY 189 1.99 0.23 48.0
Hartford CT 189 2.04 0.48 48.0
Augusta ME 189 2.05 -0.13 48.0
Dover DE 189 2.08 -0.27 48.0
Madison WI 189 2.14 0.57 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 2.19 0.12 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 2.22 -0.30 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.24 0.35 48.0
Salem OR 189 2.24 0.98 48.0
Concord NH 189 2.25 -0.77 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 2.29 0.69 48.0
Nashville TN 189 2.29 1.95 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 2.32 0.70 48.0
Boise ID 189 2.32 -0.78 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 2.34 -0.04 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 2.39 -0.89 48.0
Helena MT 189 2.56 -0.36 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 2.65 0.85 48.0
Olympia WA 189 2.67 -0.17 48.0
Carson City NV 189 2.71 -1.27 48.0
Pierre SD 189 2.72 -1.51 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.75 2.21 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 2.77 0.62 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 2.84 0.13 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 2.85 0.69 48.0
Topeka KS 189 2.91 1.94 48.0
Charleston WV 189 2.94 1.21 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 2.96 -1.87 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 3.15 2.77 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 3.15 -1.75 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 3.15 -2.34 48.0
Columbus OH 189 3.22 1.78 48.0
Juneau AK 189 3.29 0.59 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 3.34 -1.63 48.0
Columbia SC 189 3.38 2.94 48.0
Denver CO 189 3.39 1.44 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 3.51 1.33 48.0
Cheyenne WY 189 3.80 0.58 48.0
Indianapolis IN 189 3.94 3.26 48.0
Springfield IL 189 4.10 3.58 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 4.39 4.06 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 106.0°F 104.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 103.0°F 106.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 14:00 MDT Denver CO 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Dover DE 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 14:00 MDT Boise ID 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 85.0°F 79.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Boston MA 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 14:00 MDT Helena MT 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 79.0°F 63.0°F +16.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Concord NH 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Albany NY 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 80.0°F 85.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 78.0°F 72.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 105.0°F 101.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 13:00 PDT Salem OR 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Providence RI 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 48.0