Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.23 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.32 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.44 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 1.59 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.69 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.78 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 1.83 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 1.89 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 1.97 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.99 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.10 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.12 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.19 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.19 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.20 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.23 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.26 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.29 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.32 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.33 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.33 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.37 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.41 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.42 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.45 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.46 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.47 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.58 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.60 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.62 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.71 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.72 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.80 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.81 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.90 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.93 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.95 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.96 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.98 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.07 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.12 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 3.17 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 3.25 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.41 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.41 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.43 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.56 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.59 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.65 | 3.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.68 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 101.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 104.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 103.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 97.0°F | 88.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |