Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 172 | 1.40 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.47 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.59 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 1.60 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 1.87 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.90 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.95 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 1.97 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.03 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.08 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.10 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.13 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.17 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.18 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.18 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.21 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.24 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.36 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.40 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.53 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.54 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.55 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.55 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.60 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.62 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.63 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.67 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.69 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.72 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.74 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.74 | -2.44 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.80 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.80 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.84 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.86 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.88 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.88 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.90 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.92 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.92 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.95 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 3.06 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 3.10 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.11 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 3.20 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.29 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.67 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 3.80 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.94 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.97 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 58.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |