Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.21 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 1.43 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.68 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 1.79 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 1.83 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 1.85 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 1.86 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.89 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.92 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.06 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.10 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.12 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.20 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.22 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.23 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.25 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.32 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.34 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.37 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.37 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.38 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.39 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.42 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.45 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.45 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.46 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.48 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.50 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.53 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.54 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.58 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.59 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.63 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.65 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.70 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.71 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.78 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.79 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.87 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.14 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.33 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.39 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.53 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 3.62 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.68 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.77 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.77 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.98 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.98 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 48.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 40.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 46.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 39.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |