Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.60 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 1.70 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.75 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 1.76 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 1.83 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 1.87 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.88 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 1.94 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.03 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.08 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.08 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.14 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.15 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.15 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 2.16 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.19 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.19 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.20 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.21 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.25 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.26 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.30 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.31 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.34 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.34 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.35 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.40 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.42 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.45 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.60 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.61 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.63 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.63 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.70 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.73 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.77 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.77 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 2.79 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.82 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.84 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.87 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.89 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.97 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.06 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 3.11 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.32 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.36 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 3.38 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.39 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.39 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 88.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 87.0°F | 76.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 100.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 93.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |