Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.26 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.59 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.65 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 1.78 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 1.80 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.85 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 1.88 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 1.89 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 1.92 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 1.96 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 1.98 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 1.98 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.09 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.09 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.22 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.23 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.28 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.30 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.32 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.32 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.39 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.41 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.41 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.44 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.46 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.49 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.59 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.62 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.63 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.67 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.68 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.69 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.76 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.83 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.83 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.85 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.87 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.87 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.88 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.89 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.99 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 3.22 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.23 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 3.43 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.49 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.52 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 3.53 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.53 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.63 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.71 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 98.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |