Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.62 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.75 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.82 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 1.89 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.03 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.04 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.07 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.10 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.10 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 2.11 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.15 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.15 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.18 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.21 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.25 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.35 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.38 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.42 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.45 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.48 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.48 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.49 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.52 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.63 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.63 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.67 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.68 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.71 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.74 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.76 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.77 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.77 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.79 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.80 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.80 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.83 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.89 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.94 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 3.01 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 3.12 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.15 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.17 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.19 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.21 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.35 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.43 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.59 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.88 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 4.28 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 56.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 59.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 57.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 64.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |