Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
64533
3097632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.59°
8450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-06 00:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 169 1.37 -0.60 48.0
Little Rock AR 169 1.44 0.90 48.0
Salem OR 169 1.54 0.82 48.0
Nashville TN 169 1.54 1.12 48.0
Sacramento CA 169 1.57 0.60 48.0
Raleigh NC 169 1.74 0.71 48.0
Jefferson City MO 169 1.75 1.22 48.0
Columbia SC 169 1.75 -0.48 48.0
Austin TX 169 1.76 -0.13 48.0
Honolulu HI 169 1.81 -1.50 48.0
Des Moines IA 169 1.83 0.60 48.0
Springfield IL 169 1.95 1.72 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 169 2.20 0.99 48.0
Jackson MS 169 2.20 1.16 48.0
Columbus OH 169 2.25 0.14 48.0
Frankfort KY 169 2.33 1.49 48.0
Albany NY 169 2.44 0.91 48.0
Topeka KS 169 2.47 0.89 48.0
Boston MA 169 2.47 0.89 48.0
Augusta ME 169 2.50 0.91 48.0
Dover DE 169 2.53 0.89 48.0
Concord NH 169 2.53 -0.30 48.0
Charleston WV 169 2.55 2.21 48.0
Atlanta GA 169 2.56 0.73 48.0
Hartford CT 169 2.59 0.39 48.0
Saint Paul MN 169 2.62 0.59 48.0
Providence RI 169 2.62 -0.11 48.0
Richmond VA 169 2.78 1.88 48.0
Olympia WA 169 2.80 -0.39 48.0
Annapolis MD 169 2.83 1.93 48.0
Helena MT 169 2.90 -0.98 48.0
Carson City NV 169 2.90 -1.91 48.0
Montpelier VT 169 2.94 0.70 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 169 2.97 1.88 48.0
Lansing MI 169 2.98 1.86 48.0
Santa Fe NM 169 3.01 -0.62 48.0
Bismarck ND 169 3.01 0.27 48.0
Madison WI 169 3.04 1.83 48.0
Tallahassee FL 169 3.10 -2.32 48.0
Lincoln NE 169 3.11 2.80 48.0
Juneau AK 169 3.15 0.34 48.0
Cheyenne WY 169 3.15 -0.49 48.0
Trenton NJ 169 3.20 1.34 48.0
Harrisburg PA 169 3.33 1.43 48.0
Montgomery AL 169 3.37 -1.75 48.0
Boise ID 169 3.40 1.25 48.0
Pierre SD 169 3.45 1.58 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 169 3.64 -2.75 48.0
Denver CO 169 3.66 0.65 48.0
Phoenix AZ 169 3.67 -1.86 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 16:00 AKDT Juneau AK 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 17:00 MST Phoenix AZ 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Little Rock AR 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 17:00 PDT Sacramento CA 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 18:00 MDT Denver CO 88.0°F 93.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 79.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 14:00 HST Honolulu HI 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 18:00 MDT Boise ID 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Springfield IL 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Des Moines IA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Topeka KS 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Frankfort KY 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Jackson MS 89.0°F 82.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 91.0°F 96.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 18:00 MDT Helena MT 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Lincoln NE 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 17:00 PDT Carson City NV 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 18:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 79.0°F 87.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Raleigh NC 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Bismarck ND 91.0°F 85.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Columbus OH 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 19:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 96.0°F 97.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 17:00 PDT Salem OR 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 20:00 EDT Columbia SC 89.0°F 75.0°F +14.0° 48.0