Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.15 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.20 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 1.47 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 1.54 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.78 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 1.85 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.87 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 1.87 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.92 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.10 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.12 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.17 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.17 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.18 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.20 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.37 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.39 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.39 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.45 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.50 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.52 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.54 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.56 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.64 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.65 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.69 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.70 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.73 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.73 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.76 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.77 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.78 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.80 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.84 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.84 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.86 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 2.92 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.96 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.12 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.14 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 3.15 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.15 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.16 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.20 | -2.72 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.25 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 3.36 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.49 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 3.76 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 4.23 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 4.34 | -3.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 65.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |