Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 172 | 0.95 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 1.62 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.67 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 1.69 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.70 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.78 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 1.81 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 1.92 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 1.95 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.02 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.05 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.07 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.12 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.15 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.23 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.23 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.27 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.28 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.32 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.34 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.36 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.42 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.48 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.52 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.53 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.55 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.56 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.58 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.60 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.62 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.70 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.71 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.71 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.80 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.81 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.84 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.84 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.85 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.89 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 3.08 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 3.27 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.28 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 3.33 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.42 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.56 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.66 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.74 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.75 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.95 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 4.10 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 63.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 80.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |