Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.20 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.28 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.48 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 1.54 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 1.54 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 1.78 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.92 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 1.95 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 1.98 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.02 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.02 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.04 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.08 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.10 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.14 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.15 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.16 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.32 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.32 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.33 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.36 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.42 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.45 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.47 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.47 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.49 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.49 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.49 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.55 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.58 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.71 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.79 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.82 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.85 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.86 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.92 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.92 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.92 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.05 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 3.06 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.25 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 3.41 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 3.47 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.55 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 3.91 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 4.00 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 4.01 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 4.06 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 4.56 | 4.16 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 4.64 | 3.56 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |