Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 188 | 1.78 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 1.82 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 1.87 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.96 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 1.97 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.00 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.01 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.07 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.15 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.16 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.20 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.24 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.26 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.32 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.32 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.35 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.35 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.35 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.36 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.40 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.41 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.44 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.49 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.51 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.59 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.61 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.62 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.63 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.64 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.71 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.73 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.79 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.80 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.81 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.83 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.86 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.93 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.96 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.97 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.02 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.12 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 3.18 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 3.18 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.27 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 3.27 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 3.55 | 3.27 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.58 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.93 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.95 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 4.09 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |