Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.10 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 1.27 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.59 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 1.61 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.70 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.79 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 1.80 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 1.80 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.86 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 1.98 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.04 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.04 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.07 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.13 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.19 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.21 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.23 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.24 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.27 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.29 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.31 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.32 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.34 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.39 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.39 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.58 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.68 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.68 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.72 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 2.73 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.75 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.82 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.82 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.83 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.91 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.94 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.94 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.15 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 3.16 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.19 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 3.20 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 3.25 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.32 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 3.36 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.37 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.49 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.81 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 3.91 | 3.21 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 4.06 | 3.54 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 4.37 | 4.04 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 97.0°F | 99.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 107.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 102.0°F | 106.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 81.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 87.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 105.0°F | 104.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |