Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
67733
3251232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.60°
9250 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-08 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 185 1.15 0.50 48.0
Indianapolis IN 185 1.19 -0.57 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 1.49 0.10 48.0
Jefferson City MO 185 1.51 0.62 48.0
Honolulu HI 185 1.80 -1.32 48.0
Nashville TN 185 1.84 0.95 48.0
Salem OR 185 1.86 0.94 48.0
Raleigh NC 185 1.88 0.21 48.0
Columbus OH 185 1.90 0.38 48.0
Austin TX 185 2.09 -0.28 48.0
Augusta ME 185 2.10 -0.56 48.0
Columbia SC 185 2.14 0.10 48.0
Jackson MS 185 2.17 1.35 48.0
Albany NY 185 2.17 -0.13 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 2.22 0.99 48.0
Topeka KS 185 2.34 1.57 48.0
Lansing MI 185 2.37 1.28 48.0
Charleston WV 185 2.41 2.09 48.0
Saint Paul MN 185 2.49 0.48 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 2.50 -1.09 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 2.54 0.89 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.55 1.28 48.0
Madison WI 185 2.57 1.92 48.0
Lincoln NE 185 2.63 2.18 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.64 0.01 48.0
Springfield IL 185 2.70 2.51 48.0
Dover DE 185 2.71 -0.12 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 2.72 -0.05 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 2.73 1.76 48.0
Trenton NJ 185 2.73 -0.35 48.0
Harrisburg PA 185 2.74 0.86 48.0
Hartford CT 185 2.75 -0.20 48.0
Concord NH 185 2.77 -0.92 48.0
Richmond VA 185 2.82 1.32 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 2.85 1.71 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 185 2.87 1.84 48.0
Providence RI 185 2.96 -1.28 48.0
Olympia WA 185 2.97 -0.08 48.0
Helena MT 185 3.10 -0.86 48.0
Juneau AK 185 3.12 -0.24 48.0
Denver CO 185 3.14 -0.19 48.0
Bismarck ND 185 3.14 1.06 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 3.17 -2.71 48.0
Carson City NV 185 3.20 -2.36 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 3.24 -1.99 48.0
Montgomery AL 185 3.32 0.16 48.0
Santa Fe NM 185 3.49 -1.46 48.0
Boise ID 185 3.69 1.18 48.0
Pierre SD 185 4.21 2.15 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 4.27 -3.55 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 96.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 MDT Denver CO 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 MDT Boise ID 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Boston MA 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 59.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Concord NH 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 71.0°F 77.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Albany NY 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Providence RI 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 12:00 EDT Columbia SC 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0