Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.38 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.45 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 1.53 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 1.56 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 1.60 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 1.74 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.75 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.79 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.81 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 1.83 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 1.92 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.22 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.23 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.24 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.32 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.45 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.46 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.48 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.49 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.49 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.50 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.52 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.57 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.59 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.61 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.62 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.72 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.79 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 2.83 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.86 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.87 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.94 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.96 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.99 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.04 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 3.05 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.08 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.09 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.10 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 3.13 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.13 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 3.15 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 3.29 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.35 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 3.39 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.42 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.65 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.67 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.68 | -2.82 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |