Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.56 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 1.64 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 1.71 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 1.73 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.79 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 1.80 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 1.81 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 1.89 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 1.91 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.02 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.02 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.06 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.06 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.08 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.11 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.14 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.16 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.16 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.18 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.19 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.19 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.25 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 2.25 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.27 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.27 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 2.31 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.32 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.33 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.35 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.46 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.47 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.51 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.57 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.72 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.74 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.78 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.79 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.82 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.91 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.95 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.98 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.98 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.00 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.06 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 3.06 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.14 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.24 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 3.34 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 3.38 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 3.57 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 98.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 65.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |