Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
89533
4297632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.67°
9450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-26 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Albany NY 189 1.80 -0.70 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 1.93 -0.12 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 1.95 -1.90 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 1.96 1.30 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 2.03 -0.48 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 2.11 0.49 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.16 -0.79 48.0
Richmond VA 189 2.16 -0.38 48.0
Lansing MI 189 2.19 0.80 48.0
Austin TX 189 2.23 1.42 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 2.23 -0.25 48.0
Helena MT 189 2.26 1.21 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 2.32 0.70 48.0
Boise ID 189 2.33 0.48 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 2.35 1.15 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 2.36 -0.90 48.0
Indianapolis IN 189 2.38 0.87 48.0
Jackson MS 189 2.38 1.63 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.42 1.71 48.0
Springfield IL 189 2.42 1.33 48.0
Providence RI 189 2.42 -1.78 48.0
Madison WI 189 2.44 0.60 48.0
Columbus OH 189 2.48 1.35 48.0
Pierre SD 189 2.51 0.26 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 2.52 0.25 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 2.56 1.80 48.0
Juneau AK 189 2.56 -0.67 48.0
Hartford CT 189 2.57 -1.47 48.0
Columbia SC 189 2.61 0.91 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 2.62 -0.13 48.0
Topeka KS 189 2.66 -0.86 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 2.74 -1.49 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 2.75 0.80 48.0
Dover DE 189 2.77 -0.66 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 2.85 2.49 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 2.92 0.53 48.0
Augusta ME 189 2.93 -1.92 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 2.95 -1.25 48.0
Charleston WV 189 3.03 1.89 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 3.05 0.58 48.0
Cheyenne WY 189 3.06 -0.30 48.0
Carson City NV 189 3.20 1.35 48.0
Olympia WA 189 3.29 2.25 48.0
Salem OR 189 3.42 1.85 48.0
Concord NH 189 3.49 -1.16 48.0
Denver CO 189 3.52 2.06 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 3.60 3.34 48.0
Nashville TN 189 3.87 2.97 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 3.93 2.48 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 4.24 -0.77 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 46.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 93.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 14:00 MDT Denver CO 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 59.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 14:00 MDT Boise ID 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 62.0°F 66.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 72.0°F -11.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 70.0°F 60.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Boston MA 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 14:00 MDT Helena MT 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 71.0°F 77.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 64.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Albany NY 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 92.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 13:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 64.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 58.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Providence RI 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0