Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 178 | 0.96 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.65 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.68 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 1.70 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 1.70 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.76 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.86 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 1.89 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.94 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.01 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.01 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.07 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.12 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.20 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.21 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.24 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.29 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.33 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.34 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.37 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.46 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.48 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.48 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.49 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.50 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.53 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.54 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.56 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.58 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.62 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.67 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.80 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.81 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.81 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.82 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.83 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.87 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.90 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.93 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 3.04 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 3.32 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.33 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.34 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.47 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.54 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.65 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.69 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.71 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.94 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 4.17 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 45.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |