Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
61733
2963232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.51°
9250 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-03 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 185 1.38 -0.26 48.0
Salem OR 185 1.48 0.22 48.0
Jackson MS 185 1.57 0.23 48.0
Nashville TN 185 1.66 0.91 48.0
Columbus OH 185 1.74 -0.65 48.0
Columbia SC 185 1.78 -0.63 48.0
Raleigh NC 185 1.90 0.11 48.0
Honolulu HI 185 1.96 -1.74 48.0
Topeka KS 185 1.97 -0.03 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 1.99 1.39 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.05 0.36 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 2.06 1.26 48.0
Richmond VA 185 2.06 0.28 48.0
Little Rock AR 185 2.16 0.83 48.0
Jefferson City MO 185 2.16 1.89 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 2.18 1.45 48.0
Concord NH 185 2.18 0.03 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.24 0.07 48.0
Providence RI 185 2.25 0.52 48.0
Hartford CT 185 2.26 0.98 48.0
Springfield IL 185 2.34 2.10 48.0
Charleston WV 185 2.34 1.99 48.0
Saint Paul MN 185 2.37 0.19 48.0
Augusta ME 185 2.38 0.91 48.0
Albany NY 185 2.41 1.52 48.0
Lansing MI 185 2.42 1.21 48.0
Bismarck ND 185 2.44 -0.44 48.0
Juneau AK 185 2.63 1.06 48.0
Austin TX 185 2.63 1.27 48.0
Boise ID 185 2.69 -1.21 48.0
Olympia WA 185 2.69 -0.83 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 2.71 0.12 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 2.71 1.29 48.0
Pierre SD 185 2.73 1.19 48.0
Montgomery AL 185 2.78 -1.97 48.0
Dover DE 185 2.80 0.90 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 2.83 1.14 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 2.86 -1.74 48.0
Madison WI 185 2.91 1.45 48.0
Helena MT 185 3.04 0.48 48.0
Lincoln NE 185 3.05 2.40 48.0
Carson City NV 185 3.08 -0.56 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 185 3.12 0.49 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 3.13 -0.38 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 3.19 0.05 48.0
Trenton NJ 185 3.24 2.88 48.0
Santa Fe NM 185 3.37 -1.00 48.0
Denver CO 185 3.45 1.55 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 3.67 -1.77 48.0
Harrisburg PA 185 4.24 0.61 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 47.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 10:00 MDT Denver CO 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Dover DE 87.0°F 80.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 10:00 MDT Boise ID 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 85.0°F 80.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Boston MA 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 10:00 MDT Helena MT 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 56.0°F 63.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Concord NH 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Albany NY 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 09:00 PDT Salem OR 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Providence RI 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-03 12:00 EDT Columbia SC 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0