Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.38 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.66 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.78 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 1.99 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.02 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.08 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.15 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.20 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.22 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.29 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.32 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.36 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.37 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.41 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.49 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.53 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.56 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.56 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.65 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.66 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.67 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.73 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.73 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.79 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.80 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.83 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.89 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.98 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 3.01 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 3.01 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.01 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.01 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.09 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 3.10 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.11 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.17 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 3.21 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.22 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.37 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.39 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 3.46 | -3.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.50 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 3.51 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.54 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.61 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 3.89 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 4.10 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 4.15 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 4.15 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 4.31 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 32.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |