Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.71 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 1.82 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.86 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.87 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 1.87 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.87 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 1.91 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.93 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 1.98 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 1.99 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.00 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.01 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.10 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.14 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.21 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 2.23 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.25 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.25 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.27 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.34 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.36 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.36 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.36 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.37 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.38 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.39 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.46 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.46 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.48 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.54 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.54 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.64 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.64 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.65 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.69 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.71 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.73 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.73 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.81 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.82 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.82 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.82 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.98 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.07 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.15 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.29 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.35 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 3.42 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.65 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 4.11 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 96.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |