Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
80883
3882432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
9200 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-19 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 184 1.53 0.72 48.0
Little Rock AR 184 1.70 0.80 48.0
Tallahassee FL 184 1.71 -0.42 48.0
Richmond VA 184 1.71 -0.30 48.0
Charleston WV 184 1.78 0.97 48.0
Indianapolis IN 184 1.83 -0.29 48.0
Montgomery AL 184 1.87 -0.34 48.0
Trenton NJ 184 1.91 -0.89 48.0
Honolulu HI 184 1.97 -1.76 48.0
Jackson MS 184 2.01 0.49 48.0
Frankfort KY 184 2.02 -0.08 48.0
Augusta ME 184 2.04 0.14 48.0
Columbia SC 184 2.14 -0.65 48.0
Boston MA 184 2.26 -0.86 48.0
Providence RI 184 2.26 -1.40 48.0
Annapolis MD 184 2.30 -1.17 48.0
Jefferson City MO 184 2.31 0.04 48.0
Concord NH 184 2.31 -0.69 48.0
Nashville TN 184 2.32 0.96 48.0
Sacramento CA 184 2.35 1.93 48.0
Salem OR 184 2.35 1.17 48.0
Albany NY 184 2.36 -0.14 48.0
Dover DE 184 2.38 -1.55 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 184 2.38 0.75 48.0
Columbus OH 184 2.43 0.87 48.0
Saint Paul MN 184 2.47 0.20 48.0
Harrisburg PA 184 2.48 -1.40 48.0
Hartford CT 184 2.55 -0.08 48.0
Atlanta GA 184 2.55 1.50 48.0
Raleigh NC 184 2.58 -1.70 48.0
Boise ID 184 2.61 -1.62 48.0
Des Moines IA 184 2.73 1.95 48.0
Santa Fe NM 184 2.73 0.45 48.0
Helena MT 184 2.76 -0.68 48.0
Bismarck ND 184 2.87 -0.62 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 184 2.96 0.66 48.0
Phoenix AZ 184 2.99 0.06 48.0
Lansing MI 184 3.01 1.51 48.0
Madison WI 184 3.07 1.80 48.0
Cheyenne WY 184 3.07 -0.51 48.0
Pierre SD 184 3.17 1.69 48.0
Olympia WA 184 3.23 1.99 48.0
Springfield IL 184 3.25 1.77 48.0
Montpelier VT 184 3.31 0.99 48.0
Carson City NV 184 3.49 0.14 48.0
Denver CO 184 3.61 -0.17 48.0
Juneau AK 184 3.99 1.92 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 184 4.05 -1.61 48.0
Topeka KS 184 4.27 0.27 48.0
Lincoln NE 184 4.52 3.43 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 53.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 09:00 MDT Denver CO 63.0°F 56.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 86.0°F 79.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 09:00 MDT Boise ID 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 83.0°F 75.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 76.0°F 81.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Boston MA 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 09:00 MDT Helena MT 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 53.0°F 46.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 60.0°F 55.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Albany NY 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 08:00 PDT Salem OR 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Providence RI 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0