Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
52883
2538432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.50°
8800 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-27 07:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 176 1.70 0.15 48.0
Jefferson City MO 176 1.83 0.77 48.0
Lansing MI 176 1.84 0.58 48.0
Saint Paul MN 176 1.89 0.16 48.0
Austin TX 176 1.89 1.61 48.0
Frankfort KY 176 1.90 0.68 48.0
Trenton NJ 176 1.91 0.86 48.0
Charleston WV 176 1.93 0.91 48.0
Columbus OH 176 1.97 -1.61 48.0
Annapolis MD 176 1.98 1.06 48.0
Des Moines IA 176 1.99 -0.43 48.0
Sacramento CA 176 2.04 0.66 48.0
Madison WI 176 2.06 1.11 48.0
Juneau AK 176 2.16 1.15 48.0
Pierre SD 176 2.16 0.85 48.0
Honolulu HI 176 2.23 -1.92 48.0
Nashville TN 176 2.28 0.65 48.0
Raleigh NC 176 2.29 0.47 48.0
Providence RI 176 2.29 0.15 48.0
Atlanta GA 176 2.30 1.65 48.0
Lincoln NE 176 2.33 1.08 48.0
Harrisburg PA 176 2.35 0.81 48.0
Augusta ME 176 2.36 -1.89 48.0
Indianapolis IN 176 2.39 -1.70 48.0
Topeka KS 176 2.40 1.26 48.0
Boston MA 176 2.41 0.28 48.0
Montpelier VT 176 2.51 1.41 48.0
Dover DE 176 2.52 -0.54 48.0
Tallahassee FL 176 2.53 0.85 48.0
Hartford CT 176 2.58 -0.32 48.0
Concord NH 176 2.59 -0.51 48.0
Boise ID 176 2.63 -1.74 48.0
Albany NY 176 2.66 -0.74 48.0
Salem OR 176 2.66 0.01 48.0
Springfield IL 176 2.68 1.74 48.0
Carson City NV 176 2.70 -1.72 48.0
Helena MT 176 2.72 -0.50 48.0
Bismarck ND 176 2.77 -0.74 48.0
Montgomery AL 176 2.78 -0.85 48.0
Jackson MS 176 2.84 1.27 48.0
Columbia SC 176 2.85 0.19 48.0
Cheyenne WY 176 2.89 -0.33 48.0
Santa Fe NM 176 3.01 0.66 48.0
Phoenix AZ 176 3.05 -0.48 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 176 3.13 0.92 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 176 3.23 -0.64 48.0
Denver CO 176 3.36 0.89 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 176 3.42 2.80 48.0
Olympia WA 176 3.73 -2.31 48.0
Little Rock AR 176 4.10 0.26 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 23:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 00:00 MST Phoenix AZ 97.0°F 101.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 00:00 PDT Sacramento CA 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 01:00 MDT Denver CO 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Hartford CT 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 21:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 01:00 MDT Boise ID 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Springfield IL 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Des Moines IA 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Topeka KS 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Frankfort KY 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Augusta ME 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Boston MA 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Lansing MI 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Jackson MS 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 01:00 MDT Helena MT 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Lincoln NE 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 00:00 PDT Carson City NV 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Concord NH 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Trenton NJ 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 01:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Bismarck ND 60.0°F 55.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Columbus OH 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 02:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 00:00 PDT Salem OR 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Providence RI 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 03:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0