Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.60 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.66 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 1.77 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.84 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 1.85 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 1.87 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.92 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.95 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.96 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 1.98 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 1.99 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.03 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.17 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.17 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.23 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.23 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.25 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.27 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.28 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.35 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.40 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.40 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.42 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.45 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.46 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.46 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.55 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.61 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.70 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.72 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.78 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.80 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.80 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.81 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.86 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.86 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.89 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.90 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.96 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.98 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.11 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.28 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.33 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 3.36 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.36 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.39 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 3.40 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.51 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.70 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.81 | -2.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 36.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |