Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.59 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.62 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.83 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 1.84 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.90 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 1.91 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 1.93 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.93 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 1.94 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 1.95 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.95 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.96 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.96 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 1.98 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.07 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.18 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.20 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.24 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.27 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.33 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.34 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.39 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.40 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.45 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.58 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.59 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.71 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.71 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.72 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.75 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.78 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.82 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.85 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.86 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.91 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.05 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.07 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.07 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.13 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.16 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.21 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.24 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.26 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.46 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.50 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.57 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.66 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.68 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 3.83 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.86 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 67.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 58.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 68.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 62.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 59.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 62.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 75.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 74.0°F | 66.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 70.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 65.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 97.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |