Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.62 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.68 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 1.71 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 1.76 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 1.83 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 1.88 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 1.91 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 1.91 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 1.93 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.95 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.01 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.05 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.06 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.11 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.12 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.15 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.15 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.18 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 2.19 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.20 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.26 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.26 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.26 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.35 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.35 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.36 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.44 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.47 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.47 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.48 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.49 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.55 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.60 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.64 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.68 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.68 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.71 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.82 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.85 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.86 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.94 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.00 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.00 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 3.04 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.12 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.15 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 3.22 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 3.41 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.51 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 3.56 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 91.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 104.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 70.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 86.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 84.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 64.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |