Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
89133
4278432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.66°
9050 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-26 12:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Albany NY 181 1.80 -0.72 48.0
Honolulu HI 181 1.92 -1.86 48.0
Saint Paul MN 181 1.99 -0.13 48.0
Little Rock AR 181 2.01 1.33 48.0
Des Moines IA 181 2.04 -0.41 48.0
Trenton NJ 181 2.15 -1.25 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 181 2.16 -0.43 48.0
Boise ID 181 2.18 0.25 48.0
Bismarck ND 181 2.18 0.53 48.0
Boston MA 181 2.19 -0.90 48.0
Austin TX 181 2.19 1.35 48.0
Richmond VA 181 2.19 -0.41 48.0
Lansing MI 181 2.24 0.86 48.0
Helena MT 181 2.26 1.17 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 181 2.35 0.71 48.0
Tallahassee FL 181 2.36 1.28 48.0
Indianapolis IN 181 2.39 1.01 48.0
Jackson MS 181 2.40 1.62 48.0
Madison WI 181 2.45 0.66 48.0
Atlanta GA 181 2.49 1.78 48.0
Springfield IL 181 2.49 1.43 48.0
Annapolis MD 181 2.49 -0.36 48.0
Providence RI 181 2.49 -1.90 48.0
Pierre SD 181 2.49 0.40 48.0
Dover DE 181 2.52 -1.06 48.0
Columbus OH 181 2.53 1.44 48.0
Montgomery AL 181 2.56 1.83 48.0
Augusta ME 181 2.57 -1.51 48.0
Juneau AK 181 2.59 -0.72 48.0
Jefferson City MO 181 2.59 0.28 48.0
Hartford CT 181 2.62 -1.52 48.0
Lincoln NE 181 2.69 -1.39 48.0
Topeka KS 181 2.70 -0.95 48.0
Columbia SC 181 2.70 0.96 48.0
Harrisburg PA 181 2.77 -1.58 48.0
Sacramento CA 181 2.85 2.48 48.0
Frankfort KY 181 2.86 0.85 48.0
Charleston WV 181 2.94 1.77 48.0
Santa Fe NM 181 2.96 0.48 48.0
Raleigh NC 181 3.08 0.71 48.0
Cheyenne WY 181 3.09 -0.31 48.0
Carson City NV 181 3.25 1.35 48.0
Olympia WA 181 3.34 2.27 48.0
Concord NH 181 3.43 -0.99 48.0
Salem OR 181 3.46 1.94 48.0
Denver CO 181 3.50 1.97 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 181 3.67 3.41 48.0
Montpelier VT 181 3.82 2.88 48.0
Nashville TN 181 3.92 3.09 48.0
Phoenix AZ 181 4.28 -0.95 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Montgomery AL 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 04:00 AKDT Juneau AK 43.0°F 45.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 05:00 MST Phoenix AZ 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Little Rock AR 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 05:00 PDT Sacramento CA 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 06:00 MDT Denver CO 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Hartford CT 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Dover DE 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 61.0°F 56.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Atlanta GA 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 02:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 06:00 MDT Boise ID 50.0°F 46.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Springfield IL 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Des Moines IA 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Topeka KS 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Frankfort KY 49.0°F 50.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 70.0°F 64.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Augusta ME 52.0°F 57.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Annapolis MD 61.0°F 66.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Boston MA 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Lansing MI 45.0°F 41.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Jackson MS 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 06:00 MDT Helena MT 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Lincoln NE 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 05:00 PDT Carson City NV 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Concord NH 52.0°F 61.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Trenton NJ 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 06:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Albany NY 55.0°F 58.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Raleigh NC 53.0°F 56.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Bismarck ND 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Columbus OH 49.0°F 49.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 07:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 05:00 PDT Salem OR 48.0°F 46.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 55.0°F 61.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Providence RI 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 08:00 EDT Columbia SC 53.0°F 49.0°F +4.0° 48.0