Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.50 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 1.57 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.67 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 1.71 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.81 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 1.95 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 1.97 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.98 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.99 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 1.99 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.01 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.06 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.08 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 2.11 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.14 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.17 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.24 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.27 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.32 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.34 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.36 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.36 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.38 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.40 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.42 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.49 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.50 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.51 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.58 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.60 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.61 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.62 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.67 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.72 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 2.75 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.77 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.80 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.81 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.85 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.94 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.96 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.97 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.07 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 3.08 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 3.10 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.22 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.38 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.46 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.47 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 3.93 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 102.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 77.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 94.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 92.0°F | 96.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 97.0°F | 100.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 75.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 63.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 70.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 99.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 84.0°F | 76.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |