Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.13 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.29 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 1.48 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 1.57 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.67 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 1.85 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 1.86 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.92 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.96 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 1.98 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.02 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.19 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.20 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.20 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.26 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.35 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.38 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.39 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.41 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.46 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.57 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.58 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.61 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.62 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.62 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.63 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.67 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.68 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.71 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.71 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.72 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.76 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.77 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.80 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.82 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.82 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.83 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 2.94 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.98 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.03 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.19 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 3.21 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.27 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.30 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.30 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.35 | -3.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.49 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 3.67 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 3.94 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 4.35 | -4.09 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 101.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |