Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
44133
2118432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
8450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-20 00:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 169 1.13 0.38 48.0
Jackson MS 169 1.34 0.76 48.0
Raleigh NC 169 1.44 0.40 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 169 1.64 0.60 48.0
Little Rock AR 169 1.67 -0.27 48.0
Honolulu HI 169 1.67 -0.30 48.0
Richmond VA 169 1.78 -0.75 48.0
Lansing MI 169 1.79 0.08 48.0
Providence RI 169 1.88 0.01 48.0
Dover DE 169 2.07 -0.24 48.0
Augusta ME 169 2.09 -0.04 48.0
Hartford CT 169 2.10 0.38 48.0
Albany NY 169 2.11 0.34 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 169 2.16 0.09 48.0
Saint Paul MN 169 2.18 -0.50 48.0
Madison WI 169 2.22 0.78 48.0
Sacramento CA 169 2.26 0.43 48.0
Harrisburg PA 169 2.28 -0.11 48.0
Boston MA 169 2.33 0.30 48.0
Concord NH 169 2.34 -0.93 48.0
Salem OR 169 2.37 1.10 48.0
Nashville TN 169 2.37 2.04 48.0
Trenton NJ 169 2.38 0.86 48.0
Annapolis MD 169 2.41 0.03 48.0
Charleston WV 169 2.41 0.49 48.0
Boise ID 169 2.46 -0.99 48.0
Atlanta GA 169 2.53 1.93 48.0
Columbus OH 169 2.57 0.92 48.0
Helena MT 169 2.63 -0.40 48.0
Des Moines IA 169 2.65 0.31 48.0
Carson City NV 169 2.65 -1.49 48.0
Montpelier VT 169 2.69 0.33 48.0
Pierre SD 169 2.73 -1.49 48.0
Lincoln NE 169 2.80 0.96 48.0
Tallahassee FL 169 2.85 1.30 48.0
Olympia WA 169 2.86 -0.17 48.0
Topeka KS 169 3.01 1.96 48.0
Indianapolis IN 169 3.04 2.18 48.0
Columbia SC 169 3.08 2.58 48.0
Phoenix AZ 169 3.11 -1.91 48.0
Santa Fe NM 169 3.15 -1.79 48.0
Frankfort KY 169 3.17 2.80 48.0
Bismarck ND 169 3.17 -2.25 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 169 3.40 -1.85 48.0
Juneau AK 169 3.41 0.78 48.0
Jefferson City MO 169 3.42 2.99 48.0
Denver CO 169 3.54 1.35 48.0
Montgomery AL 169 3.59 1.80 48.0
Cheyenne WY 169 3.75 1.02 48.0
Springfield IL 169 3.91 3.54 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Montgomery AL 93.0°F 88.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 16:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 62.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 MST Phoenix AZ 109.0°F 108.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Little Rock AR 99.0°F 103.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 PDT Sacramento CA 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 MDT Denver CO 83.0°F 91.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Hartford CT 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Dover DE 79.0°F 84.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Atlanta GA 91.0°F 86.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 14:00 HST Honolulu HI 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 MDT Boise ID 96.0°F 97.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Springfield IL 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Des Moines IA 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Topeka KS 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Frankfort KY 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Augusta ME 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Boston MA 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Lansing MI 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Jackson MS 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 MDT Helena MT 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Lincoln NE 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 PDT Carson City NV 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Concord NH 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Trenton NJ 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 18:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 89.0°F 85.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Albany NY 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Raleigh NC 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Bismarck ND 79.0°F 86.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Columbus OH 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 19:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 104.0°F 103.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 17:00 PDT Salem OR 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Providence RI 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 20:00 EDT Columbia SC 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0