Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.17 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.24 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 1.39 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 1.59 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.74 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 1.79 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.87 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 1.91 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.92 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 1.98 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.12 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.13 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.19 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.24 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.27 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.40 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.42 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.44 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.47 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.52 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.58 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.60 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.61 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.63 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.64 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.65 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.67 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.68 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.69 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.70 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.75 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.77 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.82 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.83 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.85 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.91 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.94 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 3.06 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.13 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.18 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.19 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.19 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.23 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 3.27 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.27 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.36 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.42 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.91 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 4.25 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 4.46 | -3.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 103.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 73.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |