Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.08 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.27 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.51 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 1.60 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.70 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.81 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 1.83 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 1.83 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 1.94 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.00 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.03 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.05 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.16 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.16 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.20 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.20 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.21 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.25 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.30 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.30 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.30 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.31 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.35 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.36 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.40 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 2.60 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.61 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.62 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 2.68 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.72 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.72 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.74 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.76 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.90 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.94 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.03 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 3.03 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 3.15 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.17 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.21 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 3.31 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.37 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.42 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 3.45 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 3.47 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 3.47 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 3.92 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 4.11 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 4.24 | 3.87 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 4.49 | 4.17 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 98.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 73.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |