Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.12 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.46 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 1.66 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 1.69 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.75 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 1.86 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.92 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 1.99 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 1.99 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.06 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.09 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.10 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.11 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.13 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.14 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.22 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.24 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.24 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.31 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.36 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.38 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.39 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.39 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.46 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.46 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.49 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.50 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.50 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.54 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.64 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.81 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.82 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.86 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.90 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.02 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.06 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 3.06 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.10 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 3.12 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.13 | -2.75 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.14 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.16 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 3.24 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.27 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.30 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.43 | 3.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.58 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 3.70 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 3.84 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.86 | -3.12 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 41.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |