Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 190 | 0.93 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.62 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.63 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 1.65 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.71 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 1.72 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 1.93 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 1.93 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 1.93 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 2.01 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.07 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.10 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.13 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.16 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.17 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.25 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.29 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.29 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.31 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.39 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.45 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.48 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.49 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.51 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.52 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.52 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.52 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.61 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.61 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.67 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.69 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.73 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.75 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.83 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.85 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.86 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.87 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.88 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.90 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 3.05 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.21 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 3.29 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.42 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.43 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.58 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.59 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.60 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.64 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.78 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 4.18 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 88.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |