Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.51 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.53 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.54 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 1.72 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.83 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.96 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 1.97 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 1.97 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.99 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.00 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.02 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.08 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.08 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 2.13 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.15 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.19 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.25 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.26 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.32 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.34 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.35 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.37 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.40 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.41 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.41 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.49 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.49 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.50 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.51 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.52 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.60 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.62 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.68 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.70 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.78 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 2.78 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.79 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.79 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.80 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.84 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.98 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.00 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 3.02 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.04 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.10 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.24 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.40 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.48 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.49 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 3.88 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 96.0°F | 100.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 102.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 88.0°F | 77.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 100.0°F | 98.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 98.0°F | 94.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 89.0°F | 74.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 72.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 75.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |