Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 191 | 1.27 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.42 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 1.55 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 1.58 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.61 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.63 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 1.70 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.85 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 1.92 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 1.98 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 1.99 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.02 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.04 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.13 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.13 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.16 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.28 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.35 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.36 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.40 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.42 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.46 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.47 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.49 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.50 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.55 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 2.62 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.74 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.79 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.79 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.87 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.88 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.93 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.00 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 3.03 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.06 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 3.07 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 3.07 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 3.12 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 3.18 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 3.19 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.21 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.22 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.26 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.31 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.36 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.42 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.46 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 4.03 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 98.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 96.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 51.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 69.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 76.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |