Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.38 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.46 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.58 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 1.60 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 1.88 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.89 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.93 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 1.98 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.01 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.06 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.10 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.13 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.15 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.16 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.19 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.21 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.24 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.37 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.42 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.52 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.55 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.56 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.56 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.60 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.61 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.64 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.68 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.69 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.70 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.75 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.75 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.76 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.82 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.83 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.85 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.86 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.86 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.87 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.89 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.90 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.92 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 3.03 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.08 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.12 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 3.21 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.28 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.67 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 3.83 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.94 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 4.01 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |