Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.64 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.69 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 1.69 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 1.74 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 1.85 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 1.89 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.92 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 1.92 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.98 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 1.99 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 1.99 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.03 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.06 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.11 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.14 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 2.15 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.16 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.20 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.23 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.30 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.31 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.31 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.31 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.32 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.36 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.36 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.39 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.40 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.43 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.50 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.60 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.66 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.66 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.70 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 2.73 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.74 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.79 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.83 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.85 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.89 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.90 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.93 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.93 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 3.04 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 3.10 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 3.17 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 3.26 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.37 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.40 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.45 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |