Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 182 | 0.97 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 1.75 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 1.81 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 1.95 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 1.97 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.08 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.10 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.15 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.16 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.21 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.21 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.22 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 2.26 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.26 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.29 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.31 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.34 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.34 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.35 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.37 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.39 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.42 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.42 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.51 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.52 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.54 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.58 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.60 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.60 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.62 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.66 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.68 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.69 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.71 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.72 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.86 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.88 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.88 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.97 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 3.04 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 3.06 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.09 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.10 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.52 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.58 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 3.80 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 4.01 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 4.03 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 4.15 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |