Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 177 | 1.55 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.68 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.68 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 1.88 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 1.93 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.94 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 1.94 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 1.95 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.02 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.03 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 2.08 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.14 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.14 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.15 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.15 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.18 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.21 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.21 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.24 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.28 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.32 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.38 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.41 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.43 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.46 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.53 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.62 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.71 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.74 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.80 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.83 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.84 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.95 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.95 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 2.95 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.02 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.02 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.09 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.10 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.20 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 3.24 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.25 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.45 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.58 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 3.60 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.69 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.69 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.72 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 4.10 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 4.13 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 45.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 74.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |