Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.05 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.44 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.53 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.63 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 1.78 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 1.92 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.93 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.11 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.13 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.14 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.14 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.18 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.18 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.19 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.19 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.20 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.21 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.27 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.30 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.30 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.38 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.39 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.40 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.42 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.42 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.57 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.58 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.59 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.62 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.74 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.83 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.86 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.90 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.96 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.99 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.02 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 3.03 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.07 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.08 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.15 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 3.20 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.24 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.27 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.33 | -3.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.46 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 3.48 | -2.73 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.69 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.93 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.95 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 99.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |