Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 191 | 0.98 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 1.76 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 1.81 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 1.94 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 1.95 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.06 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.14 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.15 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.16 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.18 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 2.19 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.20 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.21 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.22 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.29 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.30 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.33 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.35 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.36 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.39 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.42 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.43 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.43 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.47 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.49 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.50 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.60 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.61 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.61 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.63 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.64 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.65 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.67 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.70 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.71 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.86 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.91 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.93 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.93 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.98 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.03 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.05 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.05 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 3.50 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.51 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 3.75 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 3.91 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 3.97 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 3.99 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 4.26 | 4.23 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 100.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 102.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 105.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |