Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.20 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.52 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.53 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 1.66 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 1.86 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 1.97 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 1.98 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.05 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.08 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.10 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.11 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.12 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.14 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.14 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.19 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.20 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.22 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.22 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.23 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.26 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.29 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.30 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.32 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.39 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.40 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.41 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.41 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.52 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.61 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.63 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.72 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.81 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.82 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.86 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.96 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 3.00 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.02 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.08 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.10 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.11 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.21 | -3.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 3.23 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.26 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.30 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.33 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.46 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.74 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.78 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.81 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 4.10 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 86.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 86.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |