Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
79683
3824832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
9200 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-18 15:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 184 1.54 0.75 48.0
Richmond VA 184 1.70 -0.21 48.0
Charleston WV 184 1.80 0.86 48.0
Indianapolis IN 184 1.84 -0.53 48.0
Salem OR 184 1.88 0.39 48.0
Augusta ME 184 1.95 0.32 48.0
Honolulu HI 184 1.96 -1.76 48.0
Trenton NJ 184 2.09 -0.99 48.0
Providence RI 184 2.09 -1.20 48.0
Little Rock AR 184 2.15 0.92 48.0
Montgomery AL 184 2.17 -0.24 48.0
Concord NH 184 2.17 -0.45 48.0
Frankfort KY 184 2.18 -0.38 48.0
Nashville TN 184 2.18 0.57 48.0
Columbia SC 184 2.19 -0.86 48.0
Jackson MS 184 2.20 0.70 48.0
Tallahassee FL 184 2.25 0.24 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 184 2.26 0.54 48.0
Albany NY 184 2.27 -0.03 48.0
Jefferson City MO 184 2.28 0.12 48.0
Hartford CT 184 2.34 0.20 48.0
Boston MA 184 2.36 -0.97 48.0
Sacramento CA 184 2.39 2.02 48.0
Des Moines IA 184 2.42 1.67 48.0
Annapolis MD 184 2.43 -1.26 48.0
Columbus OH 184 2.46 0.43 48.0
Boise ID 184 2.61 -1.95 48.0
Saint Paul MN 184 2.61 -0.15 48.0
Raleigh NC 184 2.67 -1.98 48.0
Dover DE 184 2.72 -1.67 48.0
Atlanta GA 184 2.76 1.67 48.0
Santa Fe NM 184 2.77 0.10 48.0
Bismarck ND 184 2.79 -0.53 48.0
Madison WI 184 2.80 1.24 48.0
Harrisburg PA 184 2.82 -1.78 48.0
Helena MT 184 2.85 -0.39 48.0
Olympia WA 184 2.97 1.67 48.0
Phoenix AZ 184 2.98 0.16 48.0
Pierre SD 184 3.00 1.61 48.0
Lansing MI 184 3.01 1.46 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 184 3.07 0.75 48.0
Springfield IL 184 3.11 1.28 48.0
Cheyenne WY 184 3.14 -0.14 48.0
Carson City NV 184 3.30 -0.61 48.0
Montpelier VT 184 3.32 1.09 48.0
Denver CO 184 3.47 -0.64 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 184 3.89 -2.00 48.0
Topeka KS 184 4.00 0.80 48.0
Lincoln NE 184 4.26 3.80 48.0
Juneau AK 184 4.60 1.98 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Montgomery AL 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 07:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 50.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 MST Phoenix AZ 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Little Rock AR 88.0°F 91.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 PDT Sacramento CA 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 MDT Denver CO 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Dover DE 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Atlanta GA 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 05:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 MDT Boise ID 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Springfield IL 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Des Moines IA 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 86.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Frankfort KY 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Augusta ME 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Boston MA 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Lansing MI 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Jackson MS 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Lincoln NE 77.0°F 83.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 PDT Carson City NV 52.0°F 46.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Concord NH 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Trenton NJ 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Raleigh NC 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Bismarck ND 58.0°F 63.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Columbus OH 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Providence RI 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 77.0°F +7.0° 48.0