Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.40 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.58 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.63 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.74 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.97 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.00 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.02 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.05 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.07 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.08 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.10 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.13 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.17 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.21 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.23 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.25 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.26 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.30 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.31 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.32 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.32 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.34 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.43 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.44 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.46 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.48 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.55 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.65 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.71 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.71 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.74 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.78 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.83 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.85 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.92 | -2.83 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.93 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.95 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.06 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.10 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.22 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.22 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.24 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.32 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.38 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 3.38 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.61 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.67 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.73 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 3.83 | -3.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 4.41 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 33.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |