Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.52 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 1.60 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.87 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 1.94 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 1.97 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 1.99 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.01 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.01 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 2.06 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.08 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.09 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.22 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.23 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.24 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.27 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.29 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.31 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.32 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.34 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.34 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.34 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.35 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.38 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.39 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.40 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.41 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.42 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.43 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.45 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.47 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.57 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.63 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.71 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.71 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.73 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.82 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.84 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.86 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.87 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.00 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.04 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.05 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 3.29 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.37 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.44 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.46 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.51 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 3.81 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 4.41 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 5.09 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |