Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.54 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.63 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 1.77 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.86 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.86 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.88 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 1.93 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.99 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.04 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.04 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.10 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.14 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.21 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.23 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.23 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.24 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.26 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.26 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.31 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.32 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.34 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.35 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.38 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.44 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.47 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.58 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.58 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.59 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.67 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.70 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.79 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.85 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.86 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.87 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.90 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.95 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.99 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.05 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.06 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.10 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.14 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.24 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 3.29 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.32 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 3.33 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.34 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.44 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.50 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.57 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.66 | -2.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 67.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 101.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 83.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 76.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 97.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |