Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.32 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.36 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 1.59 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 1.62 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 1.66 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.74 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.75 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 1.76 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 1.85 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.01 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.05 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.10 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.27 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.28 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.31 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.32 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.37 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.41 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.47 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.49 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.50 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.57 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.58 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.62 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.63 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.64 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.71 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.73 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.77 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.80 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.82 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.84 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.90 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.92 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.95 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.99 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 3.00 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.06 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 3.08 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.08 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.14 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.15 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.28 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.29 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.41 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 3.46 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 3.71 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.75 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.91 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 4.31 | -3.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 59.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |