Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.57 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.67 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.86 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 1.87 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.87 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.87 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 1.93 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 1.93 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 1.94 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.01 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.01 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.09 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.15 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.15 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.18 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.27 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.30 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.34 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.34 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.35 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.36 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.36 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.38 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.39 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.41 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.43 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.55 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.56 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.57 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.59 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.71 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.75 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.75 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.75 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.82 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.83 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.83 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.89 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.93 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.95 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.05 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.08 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.11 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.12 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.13 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.36 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.54 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.59 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.89 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.94 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 82.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 90.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |