Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
90683
4352832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.65°
9400 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-27 19:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Albany NY 188 1.78 -0.73 48.0
Saint Paul MN 188 1.82 -0.52 48.0
Des Moines IA 188 1.87 -0.37 48.0
Honolulu HI 188 1.96 -1.81 48.0
Boston MA 188 1.97 -0.62 48.0
Springfield IL 188 2.00 0.76 48.0
Little Rock AR 188 2.01 1.13 48.0
Providence RI 188 2.07 -1.43 48.0
Bismarck ND 188 2.15 0.56 48.0
Lansing MI 188 2.16 0.42 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 188 2.20 0.41 48.0
Richmond VA 188 2.24 -0.23 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 188 2.26 0.02 48.0
Boise ID 188 2.32 0.48 48.0
Austin TX 188 2.32 1.66 48.0
Hartford CT 188 2.35 -1.33 48.0
Indianapolis IN 188 2.35 0.85 48.0
Trenton NJ 188 2.35 -0.82 48.0
Jackson MS 188 2.36 1.60 48.0
Madison WI 188 2.40 0.23 48.0
Columbus OH 188 2.41 1.11 48.0
Atlanta GA 188 2.44 1.72 48.0
Montgomery AL 188 2.49 1.46 48.0
Juneau AK 188 2.51 -0.39 48.0
Topeka KS 188 2.59 -0.38 48.0
Pierre SD 188 2.61 0.00 48.0
Jefferson City MO 188 2.62 0.44 48.0
Tallahassee FL 188 2.63 1.31 48.0
Helena MT 188 2.64 1.78 48.0
Frankfort KY 188 2.71 0.59 48.0
Santa Fe NM 188 2.73 0.06 48.0
Columbia SC 188 2.79 1.23 48.0
Sacramento CA 188 2.80 2.37 48.0
Annapolis MD 188 2.81 0.32 48.0
Lincoln NE 188 2.83 -1.62 48.0
Dover DE 188 2.86 -0.25 48.0
Salem OR 188 2.93 0.82 48.0
Carson City NV 188 2.96 0.93 48.0
Raleigh NC 188 2.97 0.69 48.0
Olympia WA 188 3.02 1.82 48.0
Cheyenne WY 188 3.12 -0.38 48.0
Harrisburg PA 188 3.18 -1.05 48.0
Charleston WV 188 3.18 1.70 48.0
Denver CO 188 3.27 1.70 48.0
Augusta ME 188 3.27 -2.24 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 188 3.55 3.27 48.0
Concord NH 188 3.58 -1.48 48.0
Montpelier VT 188 3.93 2.06 48.0
Nashville TN 188 3.95 2.27 48.0
Phoenix AZ 188 4.09 -0.39 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Montgomery AL 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 11:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 12:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 12:00 PDT Sacramento CA 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 13:00 MDT Denver CO 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Hartford CT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Dover DE 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Atlanta GA 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 09:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 13:00 MDT Boise ID 67.0°F 61.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Springfield IL 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Des Moines IA 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Topeka KS 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Augusta ME 59.0°F 64.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Annapolis MD 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Boston MA 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Lansing MI 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Jackson MS 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 13:00 MDT Helena MT 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Lincoln NE 71.0°F 76.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 12:00 PDT Carson City NV 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Concord NH 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Trenton NJ 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 13:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Albany NY 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Raleigh NC 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Bismarck ND 65.0°F 71.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 14:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 12:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Providence RI 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 15:00 EDT Columbia SC 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0