Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.58 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.78 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.79 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.82 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 1.92 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 1.94 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 1.98 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.05 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.07 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.13 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.14 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.20 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.21 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.21 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.28 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.29 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.32 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.35 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.41 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.42 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.46 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.53 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.53 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.55 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.57 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.58 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.61 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.61 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.62 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.66 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.67 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.69 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.72 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.74 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.75 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.76 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.81 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.82 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.84 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.86 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.90 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.90 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.18 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.33 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.46 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.55 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.64 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.84 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 4.06 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 106.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |