Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.64 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 1.69 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.70 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 1.74 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 1.79 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 1.89 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 1.90 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 1.96 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.97 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 1.98 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.02 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.03 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.03 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.04 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.09 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.10 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.10 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.13 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.16 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.19 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 2.25 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.30 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.32 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.32 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.36 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.38 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.39 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.40 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.41 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.42 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.43 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.47 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.65 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.67 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 2.70 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.73 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.79 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.80 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.82 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.87 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.88 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.89 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.89 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.99 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.08 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.15 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.20 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 3.29 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 3.30 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.40 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 96.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 101.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 82.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 70.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 84.0°F | 76.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 96.0°F | 87.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 103.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |