Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
64933
3116832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8850 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-06 08:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 177 1.39 -0.66 48.0
Little Rock AR 177 1.44 0.86 48.0
Salem OR 177 1.52 0.80 48.0
Nashville TN 177 1.58 0.99 48.0
Sacramento CA 177 1.60 0.53 48.0
Jefferson City MO 177 1.73 1.19 48.0
Raleigh NC 177 1.73 0.71 48.0
Honolulu HI 177 1.79 -1.45 48.0
Des Moines IA 177 1.82 0.50 48.0
Austin TX 177 1.84 -0.28 48.0
Springfield IL 177 1.97 1.76 48.0
Columbia SC 177 2.00 -0.12 48.0
Jackson MS 177 2.18 1.18 48.0
Columbus OH 177 2.21 0.07 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 177 2.28 1.12 48.0
Frankfort KY 177 2.30 1.34 48.0
Topeka KS 177 2.44 0.93 48.0
Charleston WV 177 2.45 2.11 48.0
Dover DE 177 2.46 0.86 48.0
Boston MA 177 2.47 0.74 48.0
Albany NY 177 2.49 0.71 48.0
Augusta ME 177 2.50 0.75 48.0
Saint Paul MN 177 2.57 0.64 48.0
Concord NH 177 2.60 -0.46 48.0
Atlanta GA 177 2.61 0.87 48.0
Hartford CT 177 2.62 0.23 48.0
Providence RI 177 2.63 -0.24 48.0
Richmond VA 177 2.69 1.76 48.0
Annapolis MD 177 2.78 1.76 48.0
Helena MT 177 2.81 -0.97 48.0
Carson City NV 177 2.83 -1.88 48.0
Olympia WA 177 2.89 -0.25 48.0
Lansing MI 177 2.96 1.89 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 177 2.97 1.93 48.0
Tallahassee FL 177 2.98 -2.19 48.0
Montpelier VT 177 2.99 0.49 48.0
Lincoln NE 177 3.05 2.69 48.0
Trenton NJ 177 3.07 1.27 48.0
Madison WI 177 3.07 1.92 48.0
Santa Fe NM 177 3.09 -0.81 48.0
Bismarck ND 177 3.12 0.51 48.0
Cheyenne WY 177 3.14 -0.42 48.0
Juneau AK 177 3.15 0.33 48.0
Harrisburg PA 177 3.23 1.40 48.0
Montgomery AL 177 3.30 -1.59 48.0
Boise ID 177 3.37 1.08 48.0
Pierre SD 177 3.41 1.49 48.0
Denver CO 177 3.64 0.47 48.0
Phoenix AZ 177 3.69 -1.97 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 177 3.73 -2.88 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 00:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 01:00 MST Phoenix AZ 86.0°F 92.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 01:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 02:00 MDT Denver CO 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Hartford CT 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Dover DE 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Atlanta GA 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-05 22:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 02:00 MDT Boise ID 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Springfield IL 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Des Moines IA 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Topeka KS 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Augusta ME 51.0°F 55.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Annapolis MD 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Boston MA 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Lansing MI 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 02:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Lincoln NE 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 01:00 PDT Carson City NV 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Concord NH 53.0°F 59.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Trenton NJ 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 02:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Albany NY 58.0°F 62.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Bismarck ND 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Columbus OH 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 03:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 01:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Providence RI 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 04:00 EDT Columbia SC 77.0°F 71.0°F +6.0° 48.0