Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 186 | 1.78 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 1.81 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 1.87 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.95 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 1.98 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.99 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.01 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.09 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.12 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.16 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.20 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.24 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.27 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.28 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.31 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.32 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.35 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.36 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.37 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.38 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.42 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.45 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.50 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.53 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.59 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.60 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.62 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.62 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.64 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.72 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.75 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.80 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.80 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.82 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.82 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.87 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.92 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.98 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 3.00 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.02 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.13 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 3.17 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 3.19 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 3.25 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.29 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.56 | 3.27 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.59 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.91 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.94 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 4.12 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |