Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
48633
2334432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.56°
9350 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-23 18:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 187 1.62 1.22 48.0
Jackson MS 187 1.82 0.86 48.0
Richmond VA 187 1.83 0.12 48.0
Honolulu HI 187 1.89 -0.59 48.0
Lansing MI 187 1.91 0.35 48.0
Saint Paul MN 187 1.95 -0.29 48.0
Juneau AK 187 1.99 0.37 48.0
Raleigh NC 187 2.02 0.88 48.0
Boise ID 187 2.04 -0.92 48.0
Sacramento CA 187 2.07 0.44 48.0
Frankfort KY 187 2.12 1.18 48.0
Charleston WV 187 2.15 0.58 48.0
Dover DE 187 2.17 0.25 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 187 2.20 1.98 48.0
Albany NY 187 2.26 0.47 48.0
Providence RI 187 2.26 0.67 48.0
Indianapolis IN 187 2.32 -0.32 48.0
Columbus OH 187 2.33 -0.90 48.0
Boston MA 187 2.37 0.96 48.0
Annapolis MD 187 2.40 1.07 48.0
Madison WI 187 2.45 1.39 48.0
Jefferson City MO 187 2.46 2.07 48.0
Des Moines IA 187 2.47 -1.09 48.0
Augusta ME 187 2.47 -1.48 48.0
Columbia SC 187 2.49 1.61 48.0
Nashville TN 187 2.50 1.39 48.0
Trenton NJ 187 2.56 1.57 48.0
Atlanta GA 187 2.61 2.11 48.0
Springfield IL 187 2.62 2.02 48.0
Tallahassee FL 187 2.66 1.19 48.0
Harrisburg PA 187 2.67 1.70 48.0
Pierre SD 187 2.71 -0.55 48.0
Topeka KS 187 2.73 2.13 48.0
Lincoln NE 187 2.73 1.30 48.0
Salem OR 187 2.73 0.03 48.0
Helena MT 187 2.74 -0.62 48.0
Montgomery AL 187 2.75 0.52 48.0
Hartford CT 187 2.76 0.81 48.0
Bismarck ND 187 2.80 -1.14 48.0
Little Rock AR 187 2.86 -0.95 48.0
Concord NH 187 2.93 -1.39 48.0
Carson City NV 187 2.95 -2.21 48.0
Montpelier VT 187 2.96 0.88 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 187 3.10 0.88 48.0
Santa Fe NM 187 3.27 0.10 48.0
Denver CO 187 3.41 0.19 48.0
Phoenix AZ 187 3.48 -1.66 48.0
Cheyenne WY 187 3.49 0.46 48.0
Olympia WA 187 3.76 -1.48 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 187 4.06 -1.96 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Montgomery AL 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 10:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 11:00 MST Phoenix AZ 104.0°F 105.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Little Rock AR 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 11:00 PDT Sacramento CA 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 12:00 MDT Denver CO 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Hartford CT 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Dover DE 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Atlanta GA 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 08:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 83.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 12:00 MDT Boise ID 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Springfield IL 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Frankfort KY 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 98.0°F 95.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Augusta ME 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Boston MA 74.0°F 67.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Lansing MI 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Jackson MS 96.0°F 96.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 12:00 MDT Helena MT 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Lincoln NE 75.0°F 69.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 11:00 PDT Carson City NV 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Concord NH 76.0°F 67.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Trenton NJ 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 12:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Albany NY 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Raleigh NC 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Bismarck ND 77.0°F 85.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 13:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 11:00 PDT Salem OR 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Providence RI 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 EDT Columbia SC 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0