Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.20 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.55 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.80 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 1.80 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 1.88 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.88 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.95 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.97 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 1.98 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 1.99 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.12 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.12 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.12 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.13 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.19 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.23 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.24 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.30 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.32 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.34 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.35 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.35 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.36 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.43 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.45 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.54 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.57 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.57 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.63 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.71 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.74 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.74 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.84 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.93 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.94 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.95 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.02 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.04 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.09 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.10 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.12 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.25 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.27 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.28 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.40 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.45 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.53 | -2.75 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.67 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.71 | 3.59 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.77 | -3.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 68.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 104.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 67.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |