Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.41 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 1.63 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.63 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 1.77 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.95 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.99 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.03 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.05 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.05 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.09 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.09 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.15 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.18 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.21 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.24 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.25 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.25 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.28 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.31 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.32 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.33 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.34 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.45 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.45 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.46 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.47 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.54 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.65 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.73 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.77 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.78 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.80 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.81 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.83 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.90 | -2.81 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.93 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.93 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.05 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.07 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.20 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.22 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.32 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.32 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.36 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.37 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.59 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.70 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.73 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 3.82 | -3.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 4.41 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 71.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 100.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |