Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.46 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.55 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.60 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 1.77 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.87 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 1.90 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.02 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.02 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.06 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.07 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.08 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.10 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.14 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 2.14 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.19 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.23 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.24 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.25 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.27 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.27 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.34 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.37 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.38 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.38 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.41 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.45 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.45 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.51 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.54 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.57 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.60 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.61 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.68 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.76 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.76 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.77 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.81 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 2.82 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.88 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.89 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.89 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.94 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.97 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.98 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.21 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.26 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.27 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.58 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.60 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 3.60 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 96.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 60.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |