Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.62 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.71 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 1.81 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 1.86 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 1.87 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.91 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.94 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.94 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 1.96 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.96 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.98 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.01 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.11 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.21 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.21 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.25 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.27 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.31 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.32 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.39 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.40 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.42 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.42 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.43 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.43 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.45 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.65 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.68 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.71 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.74 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.77 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.79 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.81 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.81 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.83 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 2.83 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.87 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.89 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.91 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.95 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.12 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.29 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.30 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.32 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.42 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.49 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.59 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 3.62 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.65 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.77 | -2.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 66.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 79.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 65.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 78.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 73.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 99.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |