Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
60333
2896032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.48°
9050 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-02 12:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 181 1.51 -0.55 48.0
Richmond VA 181 1.53 -0.37 48.0
Jackson MS 181 1.55 -0.08 48.0
Salem OR 181 1.73 0.45 48.0
Columbus OH 181 1.87 -0.74 48.0
Topeka KS 181 1.97 -0.24 48.0
Saint Paul MN 181 1.98 0.72 48.0
Des Moines IA 181 2.02 1.45 48.0
Raleigh NC 181 2.02 0.27 48.0
Nashville TN 181 2.02 1.20 48.0
Columbia SC 181 2.06 -0.40 48.0
Sacramento CA 181 2.11 1.36 48.0
Boston MA 181 2.12 0.07 48.0
Honolulu HI 181 2.14 -2.04 48.0
Concord NH 181 2.20 0.09 48.0
Annapolis MD 181 2.21 0.53 48.0
Frankfort KY 181 2.22 1.43 48.0
Jefferson City MO 181 2.22 1.46 48.0
Charleston WV 181 2.27 1.92 48.0
Bismarck ND 181 2.29 -0.38 48.0
Springfield IL 181 2.32 1.61 48.0
Providence RI 181 2.37 0.41 48.0
Lansing MI 181 2.38 1.24 48.0
Little Rock AR 181 2.39 0.52 48.0
Atlanta GA 181 2.39 0.36 48.0
Juneau AK 181 2.40 1.15 48.0
Tallahassee FL 181 2.44 -0.92 48.0
Hartford CT 181 2.45 0.57 48.0
Augusta ME 181 2.54 0.57 48.0
Austin TX 181 2.54 1.75 48.0
Dover DE 181 2.61 0.27 48.0
Albany NY 181 2.62 1.24 48.0
Montpelier VT 181 2.63 1.36 48.0
Boise ID 181 2.74 -1.78 48.0
Pierre SD 181 2.75 1.75 48.0
Olympia WA 181 2.75 -0.50 48.0
Madison WI 181 2.75 0.95 48.0
Trenton NJ 181 2.79 2.24 48.0
Montgomery AL 181 2.83 -1.81 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 181 2.83 0.16 48.0
Helena MT 181 2.88 -0.38 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 181 2.96 -0.20 48.0
Cheyenne WY 181 2.97 -0.08 48.0
Carson City NV 181 3.01 -0.39 48.0
Lincoln NE 181 3.17 2.23 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 181 3.31 0.43 48.0
Phoenix AZ 181 3.39 -1.41 48.0
Santa Fe NM 181 3.53 -1.64 48.0
Denver CO 181 3.55 1.57 48.0
Harrisburg PA 181 3.59 -0.29 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 AKDT Juneau AK 49.0°F 44.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 MST Phoenix AZ 81.0°F 87.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 PDT Sacramento CA 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 MDT Denver CO 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Hartford CT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 02:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 MDT Boise ID 61.0°F 68.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Springfield IL 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Topeka KS 79.0°F 73.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Augusta ME 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Boston MA 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 78.0°F 72.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 MDT Helena MT 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Lincoln NE 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 PDT Carson City NV 46.0°F 57.0°F -11.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 63.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Trenton NJ 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Albany NY 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Bismarck ND 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Columbus OH 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 07:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Providence RI 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0