Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.58 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 1.78 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.82 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.83 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 1.92 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 1.95 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 1.97 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.04 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.06 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.13 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.15 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.19 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.20 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.23 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.26 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.30 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.31 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.32 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.39 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.40 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.45 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.51 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.53 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.54 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.57 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.58 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.59 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.62 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.63 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.67 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.68 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.69 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.71 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.73 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.74 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.75 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.77 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.83 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.83 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.84 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.87 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.88 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.89 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.19 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.30 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.45 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.55 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.63 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.82 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 4.13 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 102.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |