Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 183 | 1.80 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.93 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.97 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.01 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.03 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.15 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.17 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.17 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.17 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.18 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.19 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.23 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.23 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.26 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.35 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.35 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.36 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.39 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.46 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.46 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.46 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.48 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.48 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.48 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.51 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.54 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.57 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.57 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.58 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.61 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.62 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.66 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.67 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.68 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.76 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.83 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.83 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.96 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.96 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 3.08 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 3.10 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.24 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.36 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 3.45 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 3.48 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.52 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.69 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.81 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.92 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 4.25 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 63.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 63.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |