Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.24 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 1.58 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.61 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 1.64 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.68 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 1.83 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 1.92 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.93 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 1.93 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 1.93 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.94 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.01 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.05 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.14 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.26 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.29 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.35 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.38 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.39 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.44 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.46 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.47 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.48 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.48 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.51 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.51 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.57 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.58 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.61 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.66 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.71 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.76 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.81 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.82 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.97 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.99 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 3.00 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 3.02 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 3.05 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.12 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.14 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 3.32 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.40 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 3.41 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.47 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.53 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.59 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 4.00 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 4.11 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 4.16 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 59.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |