Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 184 | 1.00 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.54 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.57 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 1.61 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 1.77 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.88 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 1.89 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.92 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.97 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.02 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.02 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.20 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.22 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.24 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.29 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.30 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.30 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.30 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.36 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.42 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.42 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.45 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.46 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.48 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.52 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.61 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.61 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.67 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.73 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.81 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.82 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.83 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.85 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.89 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.89 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.90 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.92 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.95 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.10 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 3.13 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.20 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.20 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.24 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.30 | -3.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.45 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.48 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.49 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.58 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.79 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 4.14 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 46.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |