Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.37 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.43 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 1.51 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 1.57 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 1.59 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.71 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 1.73 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.79 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 1.80 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.85 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 1.97 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.04 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.15 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.20 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.26 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.27 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.40 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.43 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.44 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.45 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.51 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.52 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.52 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.62 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.64 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.65 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.66 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.70 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.75 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.78 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.88 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.93 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.94 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 2.95 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.96 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.02 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.03 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 3.03 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.05 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 3.10 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.10 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 3.10 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.11 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 3.19 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 3.24 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 3.33 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.48 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.59 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.70 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.73 | -2.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 58.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |