Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
82583
3964032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.54°
8500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-21 01:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 170 1.25 0.36 48.0
Little Rock AR 170 1.59 0.68 48.0
Richmond VA 170 1.63 -0.77 48.0
Indianapolis IN 170 1.78 -0.44 48.0
Jackson MS 170 1.80 0.96 48.0
Honolulu HI 170 1.86 -1.82 48.0
Montgomery AL 170 1.89 0.25 48.0
Columbia SC 170 1.90 -1.01 48.0
Augusta ME 170 1.93 -0.05 48.0
Tallahassee FL 170 1.95 -0.75 48.0
Frankfort KY 170 1.96 0.05 48.0
Boise ID 170 1.99 -0.85 48.0
Boston MA 170 2.09 -1.34 48.0
Trenton NJ 170 2.11 -1.00 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 170 2.23 1.41 48.0
Charleston WV 170 2.24 1.26 48.0
Albany NY 170 2.30 -0.35 48.0
Jefferson City MO 170 2.32 -0.04 48.0
Helena MT 170 2.33 0.41 48.0
Concord NH 170 2.33 -0.80 48.0
Annapolis MD 170 2.38 -1.51 48.0
Nashville TN 170 2.38 1.23 48.0
Columbus OH 170 2.41 0.93 48.0
Providence RI 170 2.44 -2.11 48.0
Dover DE 170 2.46 -1.76 48.0
Hartford CT 170 2.48 -1.09 48.0
Saint Paul MN 170 2.59 1.11 48.0
Des Moines IA 170 2.64 1.74 48.0
Cheyenne WY 170 2.64 -0.90 48.0
Sacramento CA 170 2.65 2.38 48.0
Harrisburg PA 170 2.69 -1.71 48.0
Bismarck ND 170 2.71 -0.13 48.0
Santa Fe NM 170 2.78 1.73 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 170 2.81 1.62 48.0
Atlanta GA 170 2.83 2.08 48.0
Raleigh NC 170 2.86 -2.30 48.0
Lansing MI 170 2.88 2.08 48.0
Carson City NV 170 2.88 1.88 48.0
Madison WI 170 2.88 2.25 48.0
Pierre SD 170 2.91 1.62 48.0
Juneau AK 170 3.02 0.39 48.0
Topeka KS 170 3.24 -1.51 48.0
Montpelier VT 170 3.26 1.07 48.0
Salem OR 170 3.46 2.80 48.0
Springfield IL 170 3.51 2.32 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 170 3.53 -1.48 48.0
Denver CO 170 3.55 -0.36 48.0
Lincoln NE 170 3.56 2.30 48.0
Phoenix AZ 170 3.61 -0.62 48.0
Olympia WA 170 3.72 2.41 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Montgomery AL 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 17:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 53.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 18:00 MST Phoenix AZ 97.0°F 100.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Little Rock AR 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 18:00 PDT Sacramento CA 80.0°F 73.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 19:00 MDT Denver CO 66.0°F 72.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Hartford CT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 15:00 HST Honolulu HI 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 19:00 MDT Boise ID 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Des Moines IA 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Topeka KS 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Frankfort KY 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Augusta ME 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Annapolis MD 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Boston MA 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Lansing MI 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Jackson MS 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 19:00 MDT Helena MT 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Lincoln NE 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 18:00 PDT Carson City NV 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Concord NH 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 19:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Albany NY 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Bismarck ND 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Columbus OH 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 18:00 PDT Salem OR 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Providence RI 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 EDT Columbia SC 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0