Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
60133
2886432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.48°
8850 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-02 08:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 177 1.50 -0.32 48.0
Indianapolis IN 177 1.54 -0.55 48.0
Jackson MS 177 1.58 -0.08 48.0
Salem OR 177 1.76 0.46 48.0
Columbus OH 177 1.88 -0.72 48.0
Topeka KS 177 1.89 -0.37 48.0
Saint Paul MN 177 2.01 0.72 48.0
Nashville TN 177 2.03 1.19 48.0
Des Moines IA 177 2.04 1.46 48.0
Raleigh NC 177 2.05 0.25 48.0
Columbia SC 177 2.08 -0.38 48.0
Sacramento CA 177 2.11 1.44 48.0
Honolulu HI 177 2.14 -2.04 48.0
Concord NH 177 2.14 0.21 48.0
Boston MA 177 2.16 0.06 48.0
Jefferson City MO 177 2.21 1.43 48.0
Annapolis MD 177 2.23 0.51 48.0
Frankfort KY 177 2.24 1.44 48.0
Charleston WV 177 2.24 1.88 48.0
Bismarck ND 177 2.28 -0.32 48.0
Springfield IL 177 2.34 1.62 48.0
Juneau AK 177 2.35 1.07 48.0
Atlanta GA 177 2.38 0.31 48.0
Lansing MI 177 2.38 1.31 48.0
Providence RI 177 2.41 0.42 48.0
Little Rock AR 177 2.42 0.56 48.0
Tallahassee FL 177 2.47 -0.91 48.0
Hartford CT 177 2.48 0.56 48.0
Augusta ME 177 2.54 0.65 48.0
Austin TX 177 2.56 1.77 48.0
Montpelier VT 177 2.59 1.49 48.0
Dover DE 177 2.60 0.21 48.0
Albany NY 177 2.68 1.28 48.0
Boise ID 177 2.72 -1.77 48.0
Pierre SD 177 2.73 1.87 48.0
Trenton NJ 177 2.77 2.21 48.0
Olympia WA 177 2.79 -0.51 48.0
Madison WI 177 2.79 1.00 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 177 2.86 0.12 48.0
Carson City NV 177 2.89 -0.21 48.0
Montgomery AL 177 2.90 -1.85 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 177 2.92 -0.09 48.0
Helena MT 177 2.93 -0.38 48.0
Cheyenne WY 177 2.94 0.02 48.0
Lincoln NE 177 3.21 2.26 48.0
Phoenix AZ 177 3.31 -1.28 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 177 3.31 0.36 48.0
Denver CO 177 3.59 1.65 48.0
Santa Fe NM 177 3.59 -1.66 48.0
Harrisburg PA 177 3.60 -0.37 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 00:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 47.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 01:00 MST Phoenix AZ 85.0°F 93.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Little Rock AR 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 01:00 PDT Sacramento CA 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 02:00 MDT Denver CO 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Hartford CT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 22:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 02:00 MDT Boise ID 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Springfield IL 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Frankfort KY 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Augusta ME 56.0°F 59.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Boston MA 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Lansing MI 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Jackson MS 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 02:00 MDT Helena MT 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Lincoln NE 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 01:00 PDT Carson City NV 55.0°F 61.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Concord NH 57.0°F 62.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 02:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Albany NY 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Raleigh NC 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Bismarck ND 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Columbus OH 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 01:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Providence RI 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0