Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 171 | 1.35 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.42 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.51 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 1.59 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 1.61 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.79 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 1.82 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 1.92 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.95 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.00 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.09 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.09 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.21 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.25 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.30 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.36 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.42 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.44 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.44 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.46 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.49 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.54 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.57 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.58 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.64 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.66 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.67 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.68 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.88 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.89 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.91 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.94 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.94 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 3.01 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.05 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 3.06 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.06 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.09 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.16 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.18 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 3.18 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 3.21 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.34 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.35 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.44 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.55 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.56 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.59 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 4.37 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 100.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 82.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |