Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
81283
3901632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
9600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-19 23:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 192 1.55 0.78 48.0
Little Rock AR 192 1.68 0.75 48.0
Richmond VA 192 1.72 -0.35 48.0
Tallahassee FL 192 1.74 -0.50 48.0
Charleston WV 192 1.75 0.91 48.0
Indianapolis IN 192 1.83 -0.26 48.0
Trenton NJ 192 1.92 -0.77 48.0
Honolulu HI 192 1.96 -1.77 48.0
Augusta ME 192 1.99 0.09 48.0
Jackson MS 192 2.00 0.53 48.0
Frankfort KY 192 2.01 -0.04 48.0
Montgomery AL 192 2.02 -0.13 48.0
Columbia SC 192 2.09 -0.60 48.0
Providence RI 192 2.20 -1.36 48.0
Annapolis MD 192 2.22 -1.12 48.0
Boston MA 192 2.24 -0.75 48.0
Nashville TN 192 2.28 0.93 48.0
Jefferson City MO 192 2.30 -0.01 48.0
Sacramento CA 192 2.31 1.91 48.0
Dover DE 192 2.32 -1.51 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 192 2.32 0.74 48.0
Concord NH 192 2.33 -0.58 48.0
Albany NY 192 2.36 -0.04 48.0
Harrisburg PA 192 2.45 -1.29 48.0
Columbus OH 192 2.48 0.96 48.0
Hartford CT 192 2.52 0.00 48.0
Boise ID 192 2.55 -1.52 48.0
Saint Paul MN 192 2.56 0.38 48.0
Atlanta GA 192 2.60 1.53 48.0
Salem OR 192 2.67 1.55 48.0
Raleigh NC 192 2.68 -1.84 48.0
Des Moines IA 192 2.70 1.84 48.0
Helena MT 192 2.80 -0.49 48.0
Santa Fe NM 192 2.80 0.61 48.0
Bismarck ND 192 2.84 -0.52 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 192 2.87 0.64 48.0
Phoenix AZ 192 2.94 -0.01 48.0
Lansing MI 192 3.01 1.57 48.0
Cheyenne WY 192 3.06 -0.37 48.0
Pierre SD 192 3.15 1.73 48.0
Madison WI 192 3.16 1.95 48.0
Montpelier VT 192 3.32 1.08 48.0
Olympia WA 192 3.36 2.18 48.0
Carson City NV 192 3.41 0.19 48.0
Springfield IL 192 3.49 2.07 48.0
Denver CO 192 3.63 -0.01 48.0
Juneau AK 192 3.91 1.76 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 192 3.96 -1.62 48.0
Topeka KS 192 4.25 0.10 48.0
Lincoln NE 192 4.38 3.29 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Montgomery AL 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 15:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 56.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 16:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 102.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Little Rock AR 96.0°F 98.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 16:00 PDT Sacramento CA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 17:00 MDT Denver CO 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Hartford CT 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Dover DE 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 92.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Atlanta GA 86.0°F 75.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 13:00 HST Honolulu HI 86.0°F 89.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 17:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Springfield IL 90.0°F 82.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Des Moines IA 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Topeka KS 89.0°F 94.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Frankfort KY 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 92.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Augusta ME 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Boston MA 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Lansing MI 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 17:00 MDT Helena MT 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Lincoln NE 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 16:00 PDT Carson City NV 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Concord NH 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 17:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 75.0°F 62.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Albany NY 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 83.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Bismarck ND 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 73.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 16:00 PDT Salem OR 77.0°F 68.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Providence RI 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 EDT Columbia SC 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0