Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
86583
4156032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
8900 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-24 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 178 1.53 0.71 48.0
Jackson MS 178 1.56 0.46 48.0
Juneau AK 178 1.83 -1.12 48.0
Honolulu HI 178 1.83 -1.78 48.0
Boise ID 178 1.92 -0.63 48.0
Augusta ME 178 1.99 -0.83 48.0
Tallahassee FL 178 2.01 0.08 48.0
Richmond VA 178 2.10 -0.37 48.0
Albany NY 178 2.11 -0.57 48.0
Austin TX 178 2.14 1.40 48.0
Indianapolis IN 178 2.16 0.98 48.0
Helena MT 178 2.17 0.62 48.0
Trenton NJ 178 2.25 -1.39 48.0
Montgomery AL 178 2.26 1.22 48.0
Columbia SC 178 2.26 0.28 48.0
Boston MA 178 2.27 -1.36 48.0
Bismarck ND 178 2.28 0.17 48.0
Des Moines IA 178 2.29 -0.05 48.0
Jefferson City MO 178 2.31 -0.62 48.0
Saint Paul MN 178 2.42 0.66 48.0
Lansing MI 178 2.43 1.58 48.0
Dover DE 178 2.49 -1.16 48.0
Annapolis MD 178 2.55 -0.48 48.0
Pierre SD 178 2.58 0.81 48.0
Frankfort KY 178 2.61 0.98 48.0
Madison WI 178 2.62 1.79 48.0
Atlanta GA 178 2.65 2.16 48.0
Springfield IL 178 2.67 1.15 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 178 2.71 1.04 48.0
Harrisburg PA 178 2.74 -1.62 48.0
Hartford CT 178 2.75 -1.81 48.0
Carson City NV 178 2.79 2.02 48.0
Santa Fe NM 178 2.79 0.94 48.0
Providence RI 178 2.80 -2.40 48.0
Columbus OH 178 2.81 1.67 48.0
Charleston WV 178 2.84 1.86 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 178 2.87 2.43 48.0
Concord NH 178 2.88 -1.07 48.0
Topeka KS 178 2.97 -2.28 48.0
Cheyenne WY 178 2.99 -0.97 48.0
Lincoln NE 178 3.08 -1.57 48.0
Sacramento CA 178 3.18 3.00 48.0
Denver CO 178 3.23 0.77 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 178 3.29 -1.27 48.0
Montpelier VT 178 3.34 1.98 48.0
Nashville TN 178 3.58 2.92 48.0
Raleigh NC 178 3.65 -0.70 48.0
Phoenix AZ 178 3.66 -1.70 48.0
Salem OR 178 3.68 2.74 48.0
Olympia WA 178 3.81 2.74 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 46.0°F 47.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 81.0°F 87.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 66.0°F 62.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 03:00 MDT Denver CO 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Dover DE 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 03:00 MDT Boise ID 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Boston MA 54.0°F 49.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 50.0°F 48.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 03:00 MDT Helena MT 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 59.0°F 63.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Concord NH 41.0°F 41.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Albany NY 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 02:00 PDT Salem OR 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 50.0°F 51.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Providence RI 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0