Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.49 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.67 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 1.73 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 1.79 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 1.89 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.91 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.99 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.04 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.05 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.12 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.12 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.13 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.14 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 2.16 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.19 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.21 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.26 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.27 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.37 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.40 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.42 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.45 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.48 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.49 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.52 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.54 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.56 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.60 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.61 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.63 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.65 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.68 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.71 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.84 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.87 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.88 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.89 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.95 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.97 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.02 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.10 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.29 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.33 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.34 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 3.34 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.51 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.52 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.71 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.74 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 4.26 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |