Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.02 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 1.68 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 1.75 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 1.75 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 1.84 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 1.92 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 1.95 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.00 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.07 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.10 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.11 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 2.13 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.13 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.18 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.21 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.22 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.24 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.26 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.26 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.37 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.40 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.42 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.44 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.45 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.47 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.49 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.51 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.52 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.52 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 2.52 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.55 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.56 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.56 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.59 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.59 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.79 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.80 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.83 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.90 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.95 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.96 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 3.06 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.09 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.56 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.68 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 3.99 | 3.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 4.04 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 4.07 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 4.11 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 4.39 | 4.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |