Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 1.45 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.71 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 1.73 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.81 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 1.85 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.93 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 1.94 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 1.99 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.03 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.10 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.10 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.10 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 2.11 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.15 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.27 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.28 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.28 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.28 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.31 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.40 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.44 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.44 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.52 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.53 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.53 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.56 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.63 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.67 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.68 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.76 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.76 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.80 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.80 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.88 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.88 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.89 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.97 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.02 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.03 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 3.08 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 3.09 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.16 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.19 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 3.40 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.44 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.50 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.51 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.58 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.77 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 4.26 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 65.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |