Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lansing MI | 172 | 1.72 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 1.73 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.75 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 1.80 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.94 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 1.97 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 1.98 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.01 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.03 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.03 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.07 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.08 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.09 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.18 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.18 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.18 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.19 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.24 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.26 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 2.27 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.27 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.29 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.30 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.33 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.35 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.35 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.35 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.36 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.48 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.49 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.50 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.55 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.58 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.66 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.71 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.73 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.85 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.87 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.89 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.91 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.91 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.94 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.98 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.06 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.13 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 3.19 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.21 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.30 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.76 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 3.90 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 105.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 107.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 85.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |