Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
54683
2624832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.45°
9400 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-28 19:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Des Moines IA 188 1.72 0.06 48.0
Saint Paul MN 188 1.73 -0.31 48.0
Lansing MI 188 1.76 0.78 48.0
Richmond VA 188 1.82 -0.19 48.0
Columbus OH 188 1.88 -1.53 48.0
Frankfort KY 188 1.96 0.97 48.0
Pierre SD 188 1.99 1.07 48.0
Sacramento CA 188 2.00 0.65 48.0
Charleston WV 188 2.01 1.04 48.0
Madison WI 188 2.04 0.93 48.0
Atlanta GA 188 2.05 1.02 48.0
Jefferson City MO 188 2.08 1.21 48.0
Annapolis MD 188 2.12 0.66 48.0
Trenton NJ 188 2.15 1.14 48.0
Boston MA 188 2.16 0.37 48.0
Tallahassee FL 188 2.19 0.46 48.0
Indianapolis IN 188 2.21 -1.65 48.0
Nashville TN 188 2.22 0.36 48.0
Lincoln NE 188 2.23 0.72 48.0
Providence RI 188 2.24 0.14 48.0
Albany NY 188 2.25 -0.63 48.0
Topeka KS 188 2.26 1.01 48.0
Augusta ME 188 2.26 -1.68 48.0
Harrisburg PA 188 2.26 0.43 48.0
Honolulu HI 188 2.27 -2.08 48.0
Austin TX 188 2.29 1.85 48.0
Hartford CT 188 2.32 -0.49 48.0
Salem OR 188 2.38 0.31 48.0
Concord NH 188 2.42 -0.69 48.0
Montpelier VT 188 2.43 1.32 48.0
Juneau AK 188 2.47 1.54 48.0
Raleigh NC 188 2.53 0.81 48.0
Phoenix AZ 188 2.61 -1.54 48.0
Dover DE 188 2.72 -0.80 48.0
Bismarck ND 188 2.79 -0.30 48.0
Cheyenne WY 188 2.80 -0.29 48.0
Carson City NV 188 2.82 -1.63 48.0
Columbia SC 188 2.82 0.29 48.0
Boise ID 188 2.83 -2.09 48.0
Montgomery AL 188 2.84 -1.25 48.0
Denver CO 188 2.90 0.79 48.0
Springfield IL 188 2.90 2.18 48.0
Santa Fe NM 188 2.90 -0.38 48.0
Jackson MS 188 3.04 1.54 48.0
Helena MT 188 3.08 -0.10 48.0
Olympia WA 188 3.15 -1.49 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 188 3.18 0.57 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 188 3.18 -0.20 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 188 3.62 2.57 48.0
Little Rock AR 188 3.71 0.77 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Montgomery AL 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 11:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 12:00 MST Phoenix AZ 106.0°F 106.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Little Rock AR 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 12:00 PDT Sacramento CA 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 13:00 MDT Denver CO 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Hartford CT 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 77.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 87.0°F 81.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Atlanta GA 86.0°F 91.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 09:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 13:00 MDT Boise ID 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Springfield IL 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Des Moines IA 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Topeka KS 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Frankfort KY 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 94.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Annapolis MD 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Boston MA 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Lansing MI 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Jackson MS 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 13:00 MDT Helena MT 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Lincoln NE 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 12:00 PDT Carson City NV 74.0°F 61.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Concord NH 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Trenton NJ 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 13:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Albany NY 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Raleigh NC 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Bismarck ND 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Columbus OH 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 14:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 92.0°F 97.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 12:00 PDT Salem OR 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Providence RI 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 EDT Columbia SC 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0