Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
40433
1940832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.56°
9550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-16 22:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 191 1.12 0.49 48.0
Jackson MS 191 1.35 0.62 48.0
Little Rock AR 191 1.58 -0.45 48.0
Providence RI 191 1.58 -0.10 48.0
Hartford CT 191 1.63 0.48 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 191 1.63 0.00 48.0
Augusta ME 191 1.75 0.52 48.0
Concord NH 191 1.81 0.02 48.0
Honolulu HI 191 1.95 -1.38 48.0
Albany NY 191 1.99 0.14 48.0
Madison WI 191 2.00 0.40 48.0
Boston MA 191 2.07 -0.22 48.0
Lansing MI 191 2.07 0.53 48.0
Trenton NJ 191 2.13 0.71 48.0
Salem OR 191 2.16 0.73 48.0
Richmond VA 191 2.21 0.38 48.0
Helena MT 191 2.24 0.37 48.0
Raleigh NC 191 2.24 0.96 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 191 2.24 0.73 48.0
Tallahassee FL 191 2.34 0.19 48.0
Nashville TN 191 2.35 2.01 48.0
Carson City NV 191 2.37 -0.74 48.0
Atlanta GA 191 2.43 1.64 48.0
Boise ID 191 2.44 -0.07 48.0
Lincoln NE 191 2.47 0.57 48.0
Des Moines IA 191 2.48 0.20 48.0
Dover DE 191 2.55 0.29 48.0
Topeka KS 191 2.55 1.14 48.0
Saint Paul MN 191 2.58 -1.09 48.0
Phoenix AZ 191 2.63 -0.53 48.0
Harrisburg PA 191 2.63 0.42 48.0
Olympia WA 191 2.63 0.01 48.0
Jefferson City MO 191 2.68 2.15 48.0
Pierre SD 191 2.72 -0.54 48.0
Montpelier VT 191 2.75 1.83 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 191 2.76 -1.00 48.0
Bismarck ND 191 2.83 -1.60 48.0
Denver CO 191 2.94 1.26 48.0
Santa Fe NM 191 3.00 -2.14 48.0
Annapolis MD 191 3.01 0.64 48.0
Sacramento CA 191 3.18 2.80 48.0
Columbia SC 191 3.23 2.22 48.0
Cheyenne WY 191 3.37 0.39 48.0
Montgomery AL 191 3.38 0.34 48.0
Juneau AK 191 3.70 -0.34 48.0
Columbus OH 191 3.75 2.98 48.0
Springfield IL 191 3.77 3.01 48.0
Charleston WV 191 3.93 2.11 48.0
Frankfort KY 191 4.11 3.68 48.0
Indianapolis IN 191 4.49 2.68 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Montgomery AL 96.0°F 99.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 14:00 AKDT Juneau AK 64.0°F 72.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 15:00 MST Phoenix AZ 105.0°F 107.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Little Rock AR 104.0°F 101.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 15:00 PDT Sacramento CA 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 16:00 MDT Denver CO 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Dover DE 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 90.0°F 94.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Atlanta GA 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 12:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 79.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 16:00 MDT Boise ID 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Springfield IL 90.0°F 78.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 88.0°F 83.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Topeka KS 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Frankfort KY 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Augusta ME 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Annapolis MD 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Boston MA 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Lansing MI 80.0°F 85.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Jackson MS 101.0°F 100.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 16:00 MDT Helena MT 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Lincoln NE 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 15:00 PDT Carson City NV 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Concord NH 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Trenton NJ 78.0°F 71.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 16:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 74.0°F 90.0°F -16.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Albany NY 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Raleigh NC 90.0°F 85.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Bismarck ND 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Columbus OH 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 17:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 101.0°F 102.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 15:00 PDT Salem OR 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 80.0°F 71.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Providence RI 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 18:00 EDT Columbia SC 93.0°F 81.0°F +12.0° 48.0