Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.59 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.64 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 1.77 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.84 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 1.86 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 1.89 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.91 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.94 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.95 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 1.97 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 1.98 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.02 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.15 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.22 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.22 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.22 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.23 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.26 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.31 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.33 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.39 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.42 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.43 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.44 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.44 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.46 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.57 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.66 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.69 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.70 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.78 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.78 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.80 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.84 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.84 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.85 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.87 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.90 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.95 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.97 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.13 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 3.33 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 3.35 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.36 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.37 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.45 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 3.51 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.54 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.67 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.79 | -2.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 34.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 52.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |