Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.56 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.66 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.86 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.86 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 1.87 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 1.87 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 1.92 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 1.93 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 1.94 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 1.99 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 1.99 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.07 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.14 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.15 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.19 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.28 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.29 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.32 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.33 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.34 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.36 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.38 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.40 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.41 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.42 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.54 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.55 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.56 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.58 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.69 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.73 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.73 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.76 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.80 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 2.80 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.85 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.86 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.94 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.94 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.04 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.05 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.08 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.10 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.12 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.37 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.53 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.57 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.86 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.93 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 58.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |