Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.10 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.26 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.57 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 1.61 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.71 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.80 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 1.81 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 1.81 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.87 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.99 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.04 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.05 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.08 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.14 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.19 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.22 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.24 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.24 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.25 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.29 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.29 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.32 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.32 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.34 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.39 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.56 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.65 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 2.67 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.71 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.72 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.75 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.77 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.84 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.85 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.91 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.94 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.96 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 3.15 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.15 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.15 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 3.22 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 3.29 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.34 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 3.38 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.39 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.51 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.80 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 3.94 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 4.10 | 3.58 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 4.39 | 4.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 104.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 103.0°F | 106.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 100.0°F | 98.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 63.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 105.0°F | 101.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |