Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.35 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.71 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.90 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.91 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.98 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.12 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.14 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.34 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.35 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.41 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.41 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.43 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.51 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.51 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.53 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.54 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.65 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.67 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.70 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.71 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.72 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.77 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.77 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.81 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.82 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.89 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.90 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.92 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.93 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.96 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.00 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 3.01 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.02 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.04 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.10 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 3.10 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.13 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 3.23 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 3.29 | -2.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.42 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.43 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 3.45 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.51 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.61 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.71 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 3.79 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.85 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.86 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 4.05 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 4.14 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 68.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 31.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |