Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.57 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.64 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.73 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.84 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.91 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 1.96 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 1.98 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.00 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 2.07 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.07 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.10 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.16 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.17 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.27 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.28 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.28 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.30 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.31 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.33 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.34 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.37 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.37 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.38 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.38 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.38 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.40 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.41 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.46 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.46 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.47 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.50 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.59 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.60 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.64 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.69 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.69 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.72 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.73 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.88 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.91 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.91 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.03 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.12 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.46 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.51 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.53 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.61 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 4.02 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 4.50 | 3.56 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 5.37 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 81.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |