Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.20 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.27 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.48 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.56 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 1.57 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 1.77 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.91 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 1.96 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 1.99 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.01 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.01 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.03 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.06 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.09 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.12 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.15 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.18 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.30 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.31 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.32 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.36 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.40 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.44 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.45 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.47 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.49 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.51 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.52 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.53 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.56 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.70 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.77 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.79 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.85 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.85 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.89 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.92 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.95 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.04 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 3.05 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.24 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.40 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 3.47 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.59 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 3.87 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 3.97 | 3.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 3.97 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 4.04 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 4.58 | 4.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 4.61 | 3.50 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 73.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |