Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
37633
1806432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.55°
9150 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-14 14:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 183 1.03 0.34 48.0
Providence RI 183 1.66 -0.19 48.0
Salem OR 183 1.70 0.05 48.0
Topeka KS 183 1.78 0.36 48.0
Albany NY 183 1.80 -0.40 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 183 1.86 0.27 48.0
Boise ID 183 1.95 0.83 48.0
Jackson MS 183 1.97 1.35 48.0
Hartford CT 183 2.02 0.33 48.0
Tallahassee FL 183 2.06 -0.40 48.0
Lansing MI 183 2.06 0.02 48.0
Augusta ME 183 2.08 0.03 48.0
Des Moines IA 183 2.14 -0.90 48.0
Honolulu HI 183 2.15 -2.11 48.0
Richmond VA 183 2.17 0.56 48.0
Concord NH 183 2.21 -1.03 48.0
Raleigh NC 183 2.21 0.57 48.0
Boston MA 183 2.22 -0.85 48.0
Madison WI 183 2.25 0.01 48.0
Trenton NJ 183 2.33 0.72 48.0
Phoenix AZ 183 2.36 0.41 48.0
Little Rock AR 183 2.36 0.50 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 183 2.37 -1.01 48.0
Helena MT 183 2.45 1.04 48.0
Springfield IL 183 2.48 1.42 48.0
Jefferson City MO 183 2.48 1.94 48.0
Carson City NV 183 2.48 -0.65 48.0
Montpelier VT 183 2.48 1.35 48.0
Nashville TN 183 2.49 2.16 48.0
Dover DE 183 2.50 0.03 48.0
Atlanta GA 183 2.50 1.70 48.0
Lincoln NE 183 2.52 0.64 48.0
Montgomery AL 183 2.53 -1.43 48.0
Juneau AK 183 2.61 -0.36 48.0
Columbia SC 183 2.66 1.50 48.0
Denver CO 183 2.72 0.64 48.0
Annapolis MD 183 2.81 1.16 48.0
Harrisburg PA 183 2.87 1.33 48.0
Olympia WA 183 2.89 -0.10 48.0
Saint Paul MN 183 2.94 -0.55 48.0
Santa Fe NM 183 2.95 -1.93 48.0
Cheyenne WY 183 3.03 -0.01 48.0
Bismarck ND 183 3.04 -1.02 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 183 3.58 2.07 48.0
Pierre SD 183 3.58 0.95 48.0
Frankfort KY 183 3.81 3.22 48.0
Columbus OH 183 3.91 2.57 48.0
Charleston WV 183 3.97 2.27 48.0
Indianapolis IN 183 4.00 0.95 48.0
Sacramento CA 183 4.25 4.11 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Montgomery AL 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 06:00 AKDT Juneau AK 60.0°F 50.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 07:00 MST Phoenix AZ 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 07:00 PDT Sacramento CA 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 08:00 MDT Denver CO 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Hartford CT 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Atlanta GA 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 04:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 08:00 MDT Boise ID 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Springfield IL 78.0°F 72.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Des Moines IA 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Topeka KS 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Frankfort KY 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Augusta ME 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Boston MA 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Jackson MS 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 08:00 MDT Helena MT 54.0°F 59.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Lincoln NE 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 07:00 PDT Carson City NV 57.0°F 54.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Concord NH 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Trenton NJ 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 08:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Albany NY 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Raleigh NC 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Bismarck ND 61.0°F 68.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Columbus OH 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 09:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 07:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Providence RI 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 EDT Columbia SC 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0