Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.52 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.54 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.82 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 1.84 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 1.91 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.01 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.01 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.11 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.13 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.13 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.18 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.18 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.23 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.24 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.24 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.27 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.29 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.30 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.30 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.44 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.44 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.49 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.55 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.57 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.61 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.64 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.67 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.69 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.72 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.76 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.76 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.77 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.82 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.82 | -2.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.85 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.85 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.88 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.90 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.99 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.02 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.08 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 3.16 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.25 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.33 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.34 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.62 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.63 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 3.66 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 3.71 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.78 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |