Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.66 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.70 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 1.89 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 1.96 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 2.03 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.11 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.17 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.19 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.21 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.22 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.23 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.24 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.27 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.27 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.41 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.42 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.44 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.46 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.50 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.51 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.56 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.56 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.57 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.58 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.66 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.66 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.69 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.71 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.71 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.71 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.74 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.77 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.78 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.80 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.82 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.88 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.92 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.93 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.94 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.02 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.08 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.09 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.18 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.20 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.36 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.43 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.45 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.46 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 4.11 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 4.42 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 67.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 68.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 72.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |