Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.30 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 1.32 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.55 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 1.57 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.74 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 1.82 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.85 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 1.87 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 1.92 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 1.96 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.05 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.10 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.16 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.21 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.25 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.30 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.33 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.33 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.37 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.39 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.41 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.42 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.42 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.46 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.46 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.48 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.55 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.58 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.62 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.69 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.74 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.82 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.82 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.86 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.87 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.92 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.94 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.95 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.97 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.01 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 3.10 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 3.23 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.42 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.49 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.50 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.55 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.55 | -2.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.61 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.68 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.74 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 100.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 66.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |