Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
67633
3246432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
9150 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-08 14:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 183 1.15 0.49 48.0
Indianapolis IN 183 1.20 -0.58 48.0
Sacramento CA 183 1.49 0.12 48.0
Jefferson City MO 183 1.53 0.62 48.0
Honolulu HI 183 1.80 -1.32 48.0
Nashville TN 183 1.85 0.97 48.0
Salem OR 183 1.87 0.95 48.0
Raleigh NC 183 1.88 0.23 48.0
Columbus OH 183 1.92 0.39 48.0
Austin TX 183 2.10 -0.28 48.0
Augusta ME 183 2.11 -0.56 48.0
Columbia SC 183 2.15 0.11 48.0
Albany NY 183 2.18 -0.11 48.0
Jackson MS 183 2.19 1.38 48.0
Des Moines IA 183 2.20 0.95 48.0
Topeka KS 183 2.36 1.59 48.0
Lansing MI 183 2.37 1.31 48.0
Charleston WV 183 2.43 2.11 48.0
Saint Paul MN 183 2.46 0.43 48.0
Cheyenne WY 183 2.49 -1.07 48.0
Madison WI 183 2.52 1.86 48.0
Atlanta GA 183 2.54 1.33 48.0
Annapolis MD 183 2.56 0.91 48.0
Boston MA 183 2.64 0.03 48.0
Lincoln NE 183 2.64 2.22 48.0
Montpelier VT 183 2.68 -0.11 48.0
Springfield IL 183 2.69 2.50 48.0
Frankfort KY 183 2.72 1.74 48.0
Dover DE 183 2.74 -0.11 48.0
Trenton NJ 183 2.75 -0.35 48.0
Harrisburg PA 183 2.75 0.89 48.0
Concord NH 183 2.76 -0.98 48.0
Hartford CT 183 2.77 -0.19 48.0
Richmond VA 183 2.85 1.34 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 183 2.87 1.72 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 183 2.88 1.89 48.0
Providence RI 183 2.97 -1.28 48.0
Olympia WA 183 2.98 -0.10 48.0
Helena MT 183 3.10 -0.84 48.0
Juneau AK 183 3.14 -0.22 48.0
Denver CO 183 3.14 -0.22 48.0
Bismarck ND 183 3.14 1.10 48.0
Phoenix AZ 183 3.17 -2.70 48.0
Carson City NV 183 3.20 -2.42 48.0
Tallahassee FL 183 3.26 -2.00 48.0
Montgomery AL 183 3.34 0.17 48.0
Santa Fe NM 183 3.46 -1.41 48.0
Boise ID 183 3.73 1.19 48.0
Pierre SD 183 4.25 2.16 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 183 4.31 -3.58 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 06:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 07:00 MST Phoenix AZ 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Little Rock AR 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 07:00 PDT Sacramento CA 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 08:00 MDT Denver CO 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Hartford CT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 83.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 04:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 08:00 MDT Boise ID 52.0°F 50.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Springfield IL 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Topeka KS 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Frankfort KY 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Jackson MS 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 08:00 MDT Helena MT 51.0°F 52.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Lincoln NE 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 07:00 PDT Carson City NV 54.0°F 45.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Concord NH 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Trenton NJ 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 08:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Bismarck ND 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 09:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 07:00 PDT Salem OR 55.0°F 51.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-08 10:00 EDT Columbia SC 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0