Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.29 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.30 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.54 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 1.58 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.73 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 1.82 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.84 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 1.87 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 1.92 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 1.94 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.05 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.06 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.15 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.20 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.21 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.28 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.33 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.34 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.38 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.42 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.43 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.43 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.43 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.45 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.46 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.47 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.57 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.60 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.64 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.68 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.74 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.79 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.82 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.87 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.87 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.94 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.96 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.96 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.98 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.01 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 3.12 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 3.22 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.43 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.47 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.49 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.53 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.54 | 3.00 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.63 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.71 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.72 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 92.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |