Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.35 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.45 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 1.73 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 1.99 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.03 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.18 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.20 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.20 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.24 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.26 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.26 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.29 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.31 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.34 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.38 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.39 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.39 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.42 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.47 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.50 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.53 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.55 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.59 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.66 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.68 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.68 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.72 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.78 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.80 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.84 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.90 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.99 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 3.04 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 3.11 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 3.16 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.24 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.25 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 3.26 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.26 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.31 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.33 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 3.37 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.45 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.53 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 3.59 | -3.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 3.67 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.88 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 4.01 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 4.18 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 4.36 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 39.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 60.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 60.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 32.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 35.0°F | 38.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 58.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |