Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.51 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.74 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.82 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.85 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 1.91 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 1.99 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.06 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.09 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.11 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.14 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.19 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.19 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.20 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.25 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.26 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.28 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.30 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.30 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.32 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.36 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.45 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.52 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.55 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.57 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.60 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.60 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.61 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.65 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.67 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.68 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.68 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.70 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.74 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.76 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.83 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.85 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.85 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.86 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.89 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.96 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.11 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.16 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.22 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 3.23 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.47 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.57 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 3.63 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 3.65 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.68 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.78 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |