Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.39 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 1.73 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.76 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.80 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 1.90 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 1.93 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 1.96 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 1.97 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.04 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.06 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 2.07 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.09 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.15 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.20 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.20 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.26 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.29 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.29 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.30 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.31 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.31 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.35 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.38 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.41 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.46 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.48 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.49 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.51 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.52 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.54 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.57 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.58 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.61 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.71 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.81 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.87 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.87 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.02 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.02 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 3.04 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.18 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.19 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.26 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 3.31 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.41 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 3.60 | 3.15 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.61 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.70 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.78 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.83 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 41.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |