Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.53 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 1.65 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 1.70 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.75 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.79 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 1.82 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 1.83 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 1.91 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 1.93 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.01 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.04 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.05 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.08 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.09 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.13 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.13 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.14 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.15 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.17 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.19 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.19 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.20 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.22 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 2.26 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.28 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.30 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.30 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.32 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.36 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.46 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.49 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.53 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.56 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.75 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.76 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.77 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.80 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.85 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.85 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.96 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.98 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.00 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.00 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.02 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.09 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.16 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.27 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 3.30 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 3.42 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.59 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 87.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 107.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 65.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |