Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.40 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 1.54 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 1.54 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.72 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.73 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 1.88 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.88 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.93 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 1.99 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.15 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.17 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.21 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.23 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.28 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.32 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.35 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.35 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.35 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.40 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.43 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.44 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.45 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.45 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.53 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.54 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.57 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.60 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.62 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.64 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.64 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.72 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.78 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.84 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.85 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.86 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.87 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.89 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.91 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.93 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.97 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 3.06 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 3.14 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.34 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.37 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.47 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.51 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.53 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.55 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.57 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.60 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 97.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 111.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 101.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 94.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 97.0°F | 87.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 86.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 103.0°F | 99.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 82.0°F | 74.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 67.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 76.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |