Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.72 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 1.82 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 1.84 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 1.88 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 1.90 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.91 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.92 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 1.93 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.94 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 1.96 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.03 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.08 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.09 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.12 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.13 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 2.21 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.22 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.26 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.29 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.29 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.30 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.30 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.35 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.42 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.46 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.46 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.56 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.56 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.59 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.60 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.63 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.64 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.64 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.68 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.68 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.70 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.73 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.75 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.84 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.84 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.88 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.92 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.05 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.05 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.14 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.18 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.32 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.40 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.78 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 3.99 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 111.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 72.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 66.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 96.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |