Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.18 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.21 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.52 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 1.71 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 1.73 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 1.75 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.78 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 1.84 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 1.94 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.01 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.02 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.03 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.03 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.13 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.13 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.14 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.24 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.30 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.35 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.38 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.42 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.45 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.46 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.46 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.48 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.49 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.50 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.55 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.58 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.59 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.66 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.66 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.72 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.81 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.84 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.95 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.97 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.10 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.13 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.26 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 3.31 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.41 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 3.45 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 3.53 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 3.72 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.78 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 3.83 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.98 | 3.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 4.49 | 3.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 4.53 | 4.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 109.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 102.0°F | 103.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 86.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 95.0°F | 81.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 84.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 101.0°F | 101.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 104.0°F | 107.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |