Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
83383
4002432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.50°
9300 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-21 17:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 186 1.27 0.45 48.0
Little Rock AR 186 1.56 0.64 48.0
Richmond VA 186 1.70 -0.92 48.0
Jackson MS 186 1.76 0.82 48.0
Columbia SC 186 1.81 -0.97 48.0
Montgomery AL 186 1.84 0.25 48.0
Honolulu HI 186 1.84 -1.80 48.0
Augusta ME 186 1.90 -0.15 48.0
Indianapolis IN 186 1.91 -0.11 48.0
Frankfort KY 186 1.95 -0.09 48.0
Boise ID 186 1.96 -0.80 48.0
Tallahassee FL 186 1.98 -0.49 48.0
Boston MA 186 2.03 -1.34 48.0
Trenton NJ 186 2.08 -1.06 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 186 2.13 1.35 48.0
Charleston WV 186 2.16 1.08 48.0
Albany NY 186 2.22 -0.42 48.0
Jefferson City MO 186 2.25 -0.13 48.0
Helena MT 186 2.29 0.52 48.0
Concord NH 186 2.32 -0.92 48.0
Nashville TN 186 2.38 1.32 48.0
Columbus OH 186 2.39 0.88 48.0
Hartford CT 186 2.44 -1.10 48.0
Dover DE 186 2.46 -1.82 48.0
Annapolis MD 186 2.46 -1.65 48.0
Providence RI 186 2.47 -2.11 48.0
Saint Paul MN 186 2.48 1.12 48.0
Des Moines IA 186 2.50 1.61 48.0
Cheyenne WY 186 2.57 -0.76 48.0
Bismarck ND 186 2.58 -0.18 48.0
Santa Fe NM 186 2.70 1.69 48.0
Lansing MI 186 2.71 1.95 48.0
Sacramento CA 186 2.74 2.49 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 186 2.76 1.52 48.0
Atlanta GA 186 2.77 2.03 48.0
Harrisburg PA 186 2.81 -1.91 48.0
Pierre SD 186 2.81 1.47 48.0
Madison WI 186 2.83 2.03 48.0
Raleigh NC 186 2.85 -2.33 48.0
Juneau AK 186 2.88 0.25 48.0
Carson City NV 186 2.89 1.98 48.0
Topeka KS 186 3.13 -1.53 48.0
Montpelier VT 186 3.20 0.88 48.0
Salem OR 186 3.32 2.72 48.0
Springfield IL 186 3.36 2.27 48.0
Denver CO 186 3.37 -0.30 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 186 3.48 -1.56 48.0
Lincoln NE 186 3.52 1.85 48.0
Phoenix AZ 186 3.61 -0.88 48.0
Olympia WA 186 3.74 2.53 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 09:00 AKDT Juneau AK 48.0°F 52.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 10:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Little Rock AR 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 10:00 PDT Sacramento CA 69.0°F 63.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 11:00 MDT Denver CO 64.0°F 60.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Hartford CT 64.0°F 69.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Atlanta GA 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 07:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 11:00 MDT Boise ID 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Springfield IL 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 68.0°F 61.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Des Moines IA 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Topeka KS 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Frankfort KY 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Boston MA 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Lansing MI 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 11:00 MDT Helena MT 61.0°F 56.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Lincoln NE 58.0°F 67.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 10:00 PDT Carson City NV 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Concord NH 63.0°F 67.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Trenton NJ 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 11:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Albany NY 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Raleigh NC 86.0°F 90.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Bismarck ND 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Columbus OH 67.0°F 61.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 10:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 56.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Providence RI 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 EDT Columbia SC 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0