Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.27 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.58 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 1.79 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.83 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 1.88 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.90 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 1.91 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.95 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.08 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.08 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.09 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.17 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.18 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.20 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.25 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.27 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.28 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.28 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.28 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.28 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.30 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.31 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.40 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.46 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.49 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.50 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.63 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.63 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.64 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 2.68 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.83 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.83 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.88 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.88 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.91 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.93 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.01 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.02 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.02 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.06 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 3.09 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 3.18 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.18 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.28 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.40 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 3.45 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.47 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.63 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.67 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.70 | -2.77 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 40.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 77.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 72.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |