Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 186 | 1.68 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 1.69 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 1.76 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 1.90 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.98 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.08 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.19 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.19 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.20 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.20 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.26 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.31 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.31 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.35 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.38 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.38 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.38 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.41 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.44 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.46 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.48 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.53 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.53 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.54 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.55 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.57 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.61 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.64 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.65 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.68 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.68 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.71 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.72 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.81 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.86 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.88 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.89 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.90 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.92 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.94 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.04 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.06 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 3.07 | -2.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.13 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.13 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.37 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.45 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.52 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.77 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.89 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |