Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.73 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 1.80 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.84 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.86 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.90 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 1.92 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 1.92 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 1.95 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 1.97 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.97 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 1.98 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 1.99 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.10 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.15 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 2.20 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.23 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.24 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.29 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.31 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.31 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.33 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.34 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.35 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.37 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.41 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.44 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.47 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.51 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.51 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.52 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.53 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.61 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.62 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 2.63 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.66 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.72 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.76 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.79 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.82 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.83 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.84 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.96 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.98 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.06 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.12 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.27 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.29 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.54 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.60 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 4.04 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 105.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 104.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 80.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 92.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 81.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 68.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 72.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |