Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.58 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.78 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.83 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.88 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.89 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.06 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.08 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.08 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.11 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.16 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.22 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.23 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.33 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.33 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.34 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.34 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.37 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.37 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.42 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.47 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.48 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.49 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.51 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.53 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.56 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.57 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.61 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.63 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.68 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.69 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.70 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.74 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.75 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.84 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.84 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.87 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.88 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.90 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.90 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.92 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.95 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.98 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.11 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.14 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.32 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.44 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.57 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.58 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.64 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.68 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 110.0°F | 109.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 100.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 80.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 99.0°F | 96.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 103.0°F | 93.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |