Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 1.72 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 1.75 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 1.77 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.79 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.88 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.97 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.03 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.03 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.03 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.03 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.04 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.09 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.09 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.12 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.15 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.20 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.21 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.23 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.23 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.25 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.26 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 2.27 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.27 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.28 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.29 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.30 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.36 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.42 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.42 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.45 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.45 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.50 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.67 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.68 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.71 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.75 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.84 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.85 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.87 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.87 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.88 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.93 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.96 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 3.04 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.04 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.10 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.21 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.24 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 3.62 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 3.80 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 42.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 96.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |