Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
88433
4244832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
9550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-25 22:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Albany NY 191 1.83 -0.72 48.0
Trenton NJ 191 1.87 -0.97 48.0
Honolulu HI 191 1.95 -1.91 48.0
Little Rock AR 191 1.97 1.29 48.0
Boise ID 191 2.02 -0.41 48.0
Richmond VA 191 2.03 -0.30 48.0
Saint Paul MN 191 2.09 -0.06 48.0
Dover DE 191 2.10 -0.74 48.0
Tallahassee FL 191 2.14 0.91 48.0
Helena MT 191 2.16 0.78 48.0
Lansing MI 191 2.17 0.86 48.0
Austin TX 191 2.20 1.51 48.0
Boston MA 191 2.22 -0.99 48.0
Indianapolis IN 191 2.27 1.21 48.0
Annapolis MD 191 2.27 -0.10 48.0
Jackson MS 191 2.28 1.45 48.0
Des Moines IA 191 2.30 0.04 48.0
Augusta ME 191 2.37 -1.36 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 191 2.37 0.63 48.0
Harrisburg PA 191 2.41 -1.15 48.0
Madison WI 191 2.45 0.78 48.0
Pierre SD 191 2.48 0.52 48.0
Juneau AK 191 2.49 -0.63 48.0
Bismarck ND 191 2.49 0.22 48.0
Montgomery AL 191 2.52 1.70 48.0
Columbia SC 191 2.53 0.89 48.0
Columbus OH 191 2.54 1.54 48.0
Atlanta GA 191 2.56 1.87 48.0
Providence RI 191 2.58 -2.04 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 191 2.61 -0.58 48.0
Hartford CT 191 2.65 -1.60 48.0
Jefferson City MO 191 2.65 0.17 48.0
Springfield IL 191 2.68 1.53 48.0
Frankfort KY 191 2.68 1.02 48.0
Topeka KS 191 2.85 -1.46 48.0
Santa Fe NM 191 2.88 0.51 48.0
Sacramento CA 191 2.91 2.63 48.0
Lincoln NE 191 2.91 -1.69 48.0
Charleston WV 191 2.94 1.94 48.0
Cheyenne WY 191 3.05 -0.87 48.0
Denver CO 191 3.16 1.17 48.0
Concord NH 191 3.25 -0.95 48.0
Carson City NV 191 3.27 1.47 48.0
Raleigh NC 191 3.32 0.06 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 191 3.34 3.07 48.0
Olympia WA 191 3.57 2.42 48.0
Salem OR 191 3.63 2.28 48.0
Montpelier VT 191 3.66 2.48 48.0
Nashville TN 191 3.84 3.14 48.0
Phoenix AZ 191 4.05 -1.16 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 92.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 PDT Sacramento CA 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 MDT Denver CO 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Hartford CT 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Dover DE 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 12:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 MDT Boise ID 80.0°F 67.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Springfield IL 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Des Moines IA 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Topeka KS 73.0°F 68.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Augusta ME 64.0°F 70.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Annapolis MD 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Boston MA 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Lansing MI 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Jackson MS 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 MDT Helena MT 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Lincoln NE 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 PDT Carson City NV 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Concord NH 61.0°F 68.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Trenton NJ 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Albany NY 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Raleigh NC 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Bismarck ND 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Columbus OH 64.0°F 70.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 17:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 91.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 65.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Providence RI 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 18:00 EDT Columbia SC 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0