Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.08 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.42 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.56 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 1.60 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 1.88 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 1.91 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 1.94 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.00 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.04 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.09 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.12 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.13 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.15 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.15 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.17 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.19 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.20 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.23 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.23 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.25 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.31 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.31 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.35 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.39 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.40 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.43 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.46 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.48 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.58 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.58 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.68 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.82 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 2.87 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.90 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.96 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.97 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.98 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 3.02 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 3.11 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.16 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.17 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 3.22 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.23 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.30 | -3.21 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.33 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 3.36 | -2.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.68 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.70 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.87 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.94 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 47.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |