Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.53 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.70 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.71 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 1.73 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 1.76 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.80 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 1.88 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.92 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.98 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.01 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.01 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.04 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.16 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.27 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.27 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.28 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.32 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.32 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.33 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.33 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.36 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.38 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.39 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.40 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.46 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.46 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.49 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.52 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.56 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.57 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.63 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.71 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.75 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.77 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.88 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.98 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 3.01 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.02 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 3.05 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.08 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.20 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.21 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.23 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.30 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.43 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.59 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 4.01 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 4.07 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 4.28 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 4.57 | 3.47 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |