Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 1.75 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 1.76 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 1.77 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 1.78 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 1.97 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 2.00 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.06 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.17 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.18 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.19 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.27 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.27 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.29 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.35 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.35 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.38 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.42 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.46 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.47 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.48 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.53 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.54 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.57 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.57 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.58 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.59 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.60 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.66 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.67 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.72 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.73 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.75 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.76 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.77 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.77 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.80 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.87 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.94 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.97 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 3.04 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 3.05 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 3.13 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.14 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.16 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 3.24 | -2.82 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.49 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 3.62 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.65 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.91 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.98 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 65.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |