Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.35 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 1.63 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.77 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.82 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 1.89 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 1.94 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 1.95 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 1.98 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.02 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.07 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 2.07 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.09 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.17 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.21 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.23 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.25 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.27 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.30 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.31 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.33 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.34 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.35 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.42 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.42 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.46 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.48 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.50 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.52 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.53 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.54 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.55 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.55 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.63 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.76 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.78 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.85 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.91 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 3.01 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.06 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.07 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.13 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.15 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.20 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 3.39 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.47 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.59 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.65 | 3.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.78 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.85 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.85 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 50.0°F | 56.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |