Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.16 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.42 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.72 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 1.80 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 1.81 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 1.83 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 1.84 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.94 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 1.98 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.01 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.09 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.10 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.13 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.14 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.15 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.17 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.20 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.26 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.29 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.37 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.37 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.39 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.43 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.45 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.46 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.46 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.46 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.47 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.49 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.49 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.50 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.58 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.63 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.65 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.65 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.67 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.73 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.75 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.80 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.89 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.12 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.16 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.27 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.57 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.61 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.65 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.71 | 3.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.71 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 4.01 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 4.09 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 65.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 60.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |