Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
79583
3820032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
9100 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-18 13:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 182 1.55 0.75 48.0
Richmond VA 182 1.66 -0.16 48.0
Charleston WV 182 1.78 0.82 48.0
Salem OR 182 1.84 0.34 48.0
Indianapolis IN 182 1.86 -0.54 48.0
Honolulu HI 182 1.96 -1.75 48.0
Augusta ME 182 1.96 0.34 48.0
Providence RI 182 2.09 -1.19 48.0
Trenton NJ 182 2.10 -1.02 48.0
Little Rock AR 182 2.15 0.95 48.0
Columbia SC 182 2.15 -0.93 48.0
Concord NH 182 2.16 -0.42 48.0
Montgomery AL 182 2.19 -0.25 48.0
Nashville TN 182 2.19 0.55 48.0
Frankfort KY 182 2.20 -0.37 48.0
Jackson MS 182 2.22 0.71 48.0
Tallahassee FL 182 2.25 0.26 48.0
Albany NY 182 2.26 0.01 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 182 2.29 0.55 48.0
Jefferson City MO 182 2.29 0.12 48.0
Hartford CT 182 2.34 0.23 48.0
Boston MA 182 2.35 -0.94 48.0
Sacramento CA 182 2.38 2.01 48.0
Des Moines IA 182 2.39 1.63 48.0
Annapolis MD 182 2.43 -1.25 48.0
Columbus OH 182 2.46 0.41 48.0
Boise ID 182 2.59 -1.92 48.0
Saint Paul MN 182 2.63 -0.14 48.0
Raleigh NC 182 2.66 -1.96 48.0
Dover DE 182 2.73 -1.66 48.0
Atlanta GA 182 2.76 1.66 48.0
Santa Fe NM 182 2.77 0.08 48.0
Bismarck ND 182 2.77 -0.48 48.0
Madison WI 182 2.81 1.23 48.0
Harrisburg PA 182 2.82 -1.77 48.0
Helena MT 182 2.87 -0.38 48.0
Olympia WA 182 2.92 1.61 48.0
Phoenix AZ 182 2.99 0.17 48.0
Pierre SD 182 3.01 1.60 48.0
Lansing MI 182 3.04 1.47 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 182 3.08 0.76 48.0
Springfield IL 182 3.09 1.25 48.0
Cheyenne WY 182 3.14 -0.18 48.0
Carson City NV 182 3.27 -0.69 48.0
Montpelier VT 182 3.34 1.11 48.0
Denver CO 182 3.50 -0.64 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 182 3.91 -2.02 48.0
Topeka KS 182 3.99 0.87 48.0
Lincoln NE 182 4.26 3.89 48.0
Juneau AK 182 4.65 2.00 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 05:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 48.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 06:00 MST Phoenix AZ 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Little Rock AR 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 06:00 PDT Sacramento CA 57.0°F 54.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 07:00 MDT Denver CO 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Hartford CT 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Atlanta GA 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 07:00 MDT Boise ID 56.0°F 60.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Springfield IL 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Des Moines IA 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Topeka KS 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Frankfort KY 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Boston MA 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Lansing MI 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 07:00 MDT Helena MT 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Lincoln NE 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 06:00 PDT Carson City NV 48.0°F 41.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Concord NH 63.0°F 68.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 07:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Albany NY 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Raleigh NC 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Bismarck ND 55.0°F 61.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Columbus OH 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 72.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 06:00 PDT Salem OR 57.0°F 51.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0