Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.62 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 1.66 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.76 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 1.83 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.87 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.90 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 1.92 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.96 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.96 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.02 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.03 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.04 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.09 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.13 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.15 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.24 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.24 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.25 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.28 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.32 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.41 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.42 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.42 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.44 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.46 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.53 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.60 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.62 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.64 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.64 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.64 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.66 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.70 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.73 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.74 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.75 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.78 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.79 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.79 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.84 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.85 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.97 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.98 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 3.01 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.20 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.31 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 3.41 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.45 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.46 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.87 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 107.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 73.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 89.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 101.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |