Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.03 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 1.64 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 1.70 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 1.75 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 1.82 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 1.88 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 1.96 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 1.99 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.03 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.08 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.08 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.11 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 2.16 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.16 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.17 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.21 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.23 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.23 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.25 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.33 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.38 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.39 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.40 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.43 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.45 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.48 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.49 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 2.49 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.50 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 2.50 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.51 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.52 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.53 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.54 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.64 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.74 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.83 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.87 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.92 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.92 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.97 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.99 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.04 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.58 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.62 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 3.88 | 3.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 3.94 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 4.01 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 4.02 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 4.28 | 4.22 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |