Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
55183
2648832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.41°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-29 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Des Moines IA 174 1.58 0.55 48.0
Columbus OH 174 1.67 -1.25 48.0
Lansing MI 174 1.70 0.67 48.0
Richmond VA 174 1.73 -0.55 48.0
Providence RI 174 1.77 -0.61 48.0
Saint Paul MN 174 1.86 0.06 48.0
Pierre SD 174 1.90 0.73 48.0
Charleston WV 174 1.91 1.01 48.0
Trenton NJ 174 1.93 0.89 48.0
Madison WI 174 1.95 0.85 48.0
Augusta ME 174 2.00 -1.40 48.0
Annapolis MD 174 2.00 0.33 48.0
Hartford CT 174 2.01 -1.07 48.0
Atlanta GA 174 2.03 0.66 48.0
Frankfort KY 174 2.05 1.29 48.0
Salem OR 174 2.06 0.39 48.0
Sacramento CA 174 2.07 0.63 48.0
Boston MA 174 2.10 -0.04 48.0
Lincoln NE 174 2.11 0.52 48.0
Albany NY 174 2.13 -0.97 48.0
Nashville TN 174 2.13 0.67 48.0
Tallahassee FL 174 2.14 0.16 48.0
Indianapolis IN 174 2.16 -1.56 48.0
Jefferson City MO 174 2.18 1.28 48.0
Topeka KS 174 2.20 1.09 48.0
Harrisburg PA 174 2.27 0.02 48.0
Honolulu HI 174 2.35 -2.33 48.0
Concord NH 174 2.40 -0.72 48.0
Montpelier VT 174 2.43 1.06 48.0
Raleigh NC 174 2.45 0.57 48.0
Juneau AK 174 2.64 1.23 48.0
Austin TX 174 2.64 2.17 48.0
Phoenix AZ 174 2.66 -1.57 48.0
Columbia SC 174 2.68 0.01 48.0
Dover DE 174 2.71 -1.17 48.0
Bismarck ND 174 2.78 -0.50 48.0
Cheyenne WY 174 2.78 -0.19 48.0
Olympia WA 174 2.79 -1.26 48.0
Santa Fe NM 174 2.84 -0.43 48.0
Jackson MS 174 2.86 1.53 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 174 2.86 0.20 48.0
Montgomery AL 174 2.88 -1.33 48.0
Springfield IL 174 2.89 2.12 48.0
Boise ID 174 3.00 -2.37 48.0
Denver CO 174 3.03 1.13 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 174 3.15 0.41 48.0
Helena MT 174 3.18 0.31 48.0
Carson City NV 174 3.26 -1.29 48.0
Little Rock AR 174 3.72 1.13 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 174 3.95 2.17 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 99.0°F 103.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 72.0°F 67.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 23:00 MDT Denver CO 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Dover DE 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 23:00 MDT Boise ID 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 23:00 MDT Helena MT 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Concord NH 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Albany NY 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 22:00 PDT Salem OR 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 65.0°F 70.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-29 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0