Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.28 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.30 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 1.57 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 1.67 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 1.70 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.76 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 1.79 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.82 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.95 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.96 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.06 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.10 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.21 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.27 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.28 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.42 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.43 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.46 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.50 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.53 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.53 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.58 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.58 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.58 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.59 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.65 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.66 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.69 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.71 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.75 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.79 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.85 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.85 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.90 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.90 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.92 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 2.96 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 3.01 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.01 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.05 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.06 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 3.10 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.26 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.29 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.37 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.55 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.62 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 3.63 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 4.19 | -3.54 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 4.27 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 104.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 92.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 78.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 76.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 88.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |