Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 192 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 1.65 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.66 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 1.69 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.76 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.77 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.79 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 1.92 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 1.96 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.06 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.14 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.17 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.19 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.24 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.24 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.24 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.28 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.33 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.33 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.33 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.36 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 2.38 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.43 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.47 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.48 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.49 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.51 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.55 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.55 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.55 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.56 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.58 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.60 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.67 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.68 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.74 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.76 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.79 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.90 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.12 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.15 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.44 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.45 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.47 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.48 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.65 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.67 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.78 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.91 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 4.06 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 73.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 75.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 75.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |