Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.15 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.20 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 1.49 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 1.53 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.80 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 1.85 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 1.87 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 1.88 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.92 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.10 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.11 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.15 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.18 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.19 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.20 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.36 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.37 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.43 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.46 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.49 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.52 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.54 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.56 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.64 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.64 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.68 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.69 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.72 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.74 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.75 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.75 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.76 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.77 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.85 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.87 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.88 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.97 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 2.98 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.10 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 3.14 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.14 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.14 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.17 | -2.70 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.20 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.26 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 3.34 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.46 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 3.73 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 4.25 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 4.31 | -3.58 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 45.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |