Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.20 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.32 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.36 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 1.58 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.70 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.75 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 1.83 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 1.90 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.96 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 1.98 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.11 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.12 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.15 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.17 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.18 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.19 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.25 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.29 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.30 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.34 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.35 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.39 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.41 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.42 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.44 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.44 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.48 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.57 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 2.59 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.64 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.71 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.74 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.81 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.82 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.88 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.92 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.95 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.97 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 3.00 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.06 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.07 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.20 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 3.27 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.42 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.42 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.43 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.54 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.63 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.67 | 3.20 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.68 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 95.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 84.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 96.0°F | 92.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 98.0°F | 92.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |