Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.55 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.59 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 1.72 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 1.83 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.86 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.97 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 1.99 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.03 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.06 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.16 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.25 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.25 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.26 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.26 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.27 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.28 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.29 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.31 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.33 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.33 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.33 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.34 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.34 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.42 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.43 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.45 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.45 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.47 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.48 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.53 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.56 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.57 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.61 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.63 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.64 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.66 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.72 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 2.72 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.79 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.81 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 2.83 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.87 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.92 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.72 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.75 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.76 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.89 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 4.11 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 4.28 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 5.16 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 90.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 40.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |