Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 172 | 1.73 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 1.80 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.97 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 1.99 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.03 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.05 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.07 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.09 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.12 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.16 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.19 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.20 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.21 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.26 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.26 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.32 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.32 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.35 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.40 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.42 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.42 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.43 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.51 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.52 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.54 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.59 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.66 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.67 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.68 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.83 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.84 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.84 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.84 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.86 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.94 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.98 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.99 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 3.01 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 3.10 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 3.12 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.13 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.13 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 3.24 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 3.38 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.39 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 3.65 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.68 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.94 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 4.00 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 4.34 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 64.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |