Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.54 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.70 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.72 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 1.74 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.79 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 1.79 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 1.90 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.93 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.98 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.00 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.04 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.05 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.20 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.20 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.24 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.25 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.28 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.31 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.34 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.34 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.36 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.39 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.39 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.39 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.47 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.47 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.49 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.53 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.55 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.58 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.65 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.74 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.76 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.80 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.87 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.93 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 3.04 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.05 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.06 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.08 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 3.10 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.19 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.27 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.28 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.39 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.65 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 4.02 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 4.12 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 4.35 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 4.67 | 3.54 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 59.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |