Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 1.65 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 1.69 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.77 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 1.82 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.89 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.91 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 1.93 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.95 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.97 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.04 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.04 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.06 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.07 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.12 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.16 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.23 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.24 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.27 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.28 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.31 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.39 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.41 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.42 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.42 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.47 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.54 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.59 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.61 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.63 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.63 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.64 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.68 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.71 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.72 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.74 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.77 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.79 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.80 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.83 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.84 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.96 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.98 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 3.01 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.19 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.29 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 3.39 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.44 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.48 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.86 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 110.0°F | 112.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 104.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |