Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.55 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.69 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.86 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 1.87 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 1.94 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 2.01 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.05 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.05 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.10 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.14 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.15 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.15 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.16 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.19 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.21 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.21 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.22 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.23 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.28 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.29 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.39 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.40 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.41 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.43 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.49 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.54 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.60 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.61 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.66 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.69 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.70 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.78 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.78 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.83 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.86 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.89 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.92 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.92 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.94 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.02 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.09 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.09 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.22 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.22 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.28 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.43 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.95 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 4.07 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 4.39 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 4.48 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 93.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |