Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.18 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.48 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 1.77 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 1.78 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.79 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 1.81 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.98 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.03 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.03 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.07 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.08 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.08 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.13 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.17 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.18 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.20 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.23 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.26 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.28 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.32 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.33 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.41 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.43 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.46 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.48 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.49 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.55 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.59 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.60 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.61 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.76 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.76 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.81 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.93 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.03 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.05 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.05 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.09 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.13 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.15 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 3.16 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.18 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.21 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.25 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.30 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.46 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 3.59 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.59 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 3.73 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.74 | -2.95 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 106.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 98.0°F | 103.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 89.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 84.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 83.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |