Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.33 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 1.71 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.72 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.83 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.01 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.14 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.15 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.18 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.19 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 2.21 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.21 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.22 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.26 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.27 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.33 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.33 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.36 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.38 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.41 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.50 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.51 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.57 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.57 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.58 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.63 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.67 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.76 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.76 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.78 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.79 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.80 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.84 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.91 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.96 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.99 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 3.02 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.18 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.27 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.27 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 3.29 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 3.31 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.41 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 3.49 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 3.52 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.53 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.67 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 3.72 | -3.33 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.74 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.96 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 4.45 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 78.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 83.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 58.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 36.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 84.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |