Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.37 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.44 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 1.54 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 1.54 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 1.57 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.74 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 1.75 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 1.75 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.76 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.81 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 1.83 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 1.95 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.20 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.20 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.25 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.33 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.44 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.47 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.47 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.50 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.53 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.53 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.55 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.56 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.59 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.62 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.62 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.78 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.80 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.83 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.90 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.90 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.94 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.97 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.98 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.01 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.01 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 3.04 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.10 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.11 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 3.15 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.15 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 3.20 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 3.33 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.37 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 3.40 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.45 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.64 | -2.75 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.66 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.67 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 79.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 96.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 87.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 91.0°F | 85.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 75.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |