Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
77033
3697632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.60°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-16 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 179 1.55 0.68 48.0
Richmond VA 179 1.59 -0.15 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 1.72 -0.66 48.0
Albany NY 179 1.83 -0.12 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 1.86 -0.18 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 1.97 -1.46 48.0
Charleston WV 179 1.99 1.10 48.0
Salem OR 179 2.03 -0.29 48.0
Providence RI 179 2.06 -1.07 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.16 -0.97 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 2.25 0.92 48.0
Columbus OH 179 2.25 0.40 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 2.26 -1.35 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 2.26 -1.56 48.0
Little Rock AR 179 2.27 0.79 48.0
Jackson MS 179 2.28 0.90 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.29 -1.21 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 2.31 -0.78 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.33 0.16 48.0
Augusta ME 179 2.33 0.77 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.33 -0.12 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 2.34 -0.26 48.0
Nashville TN 179 2.34 -0.22 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 2.42 -0.26 48.0
Concord NH 179 2.43 0.51 48.0
Boise ID 179 2.45 -1.85 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 2.45 0.31 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.47 -1.54 48.0
Lansing MI 179 2.48 0.73 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 2.53 -1.77 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 2.56 0.38 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 2.57 -0.55 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 2.61 0.75 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.63 0.51 48.0
Pierre SD 179 2.64 1.14 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 2.66 1.92 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.72 1.23 48.0
Olympia WA 179 2.72 1.30 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 2.79 0.41 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 2.81 0.47 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 2.83 -0.52 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 2.87 -0.35 48.0
Helena MT 179 2.92 -0.51 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 3.72 1.80 48.0
Springfield IL 179 3.75 2.47 48.0
Carson City NV 179 3.76 -0.40 48.0
Denver CO 179 3.89 0.80 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 4.11 3.07 48.0
Topeka KS 179 4.28 1.96 48.0
Juneau AK 179 5.16 2.45 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 53.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 84.0°F 90.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 04:00 MDT Denver CO 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Dover DE 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 04:00 MDT Boise ID 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Boston MA 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 04:00 MDT Helena MT 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 52.0°F 48.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Concord NH 52.0°F 53.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Albany NY 56.0°F 60.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 49.0°F 40.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 03:00 PDT Salem OR 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Providence RI 57.0°F 54.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 66.0°F 72.0°F -6.0° 48.0