Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.11 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.23 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.57 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 1.64 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.70 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 1.78 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 1.78 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 1.82 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.84 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.01 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.02 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.08 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.08 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.11 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.11 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.21 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.25 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.26 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.34 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.37 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.38 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.38 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.39 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.41 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.44 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.52 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.54 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.55 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.62 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.64 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.67 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.68 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.75 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.86 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.91 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.91 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 3.09 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 3.10 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.18 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.21 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.35 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 3.41 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.47 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.49 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 3.51 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 3.60 | 3.22 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.94 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 4.29 | 3.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 4.30 | 3.70 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 4.61 | 4.26 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 111.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 91.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |