Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 1.62 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 1.77 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.82 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 1.95 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.01 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.04 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.04 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.11 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.12 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.14 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.14 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.14 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 2.15 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.17 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.20 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.26 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.31 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.38 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.38 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.45 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.47 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.52 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.53 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.57 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.60 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.65 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.66 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.70 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.72 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.73 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.76 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.77 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.77 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.79 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.81 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.81 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.84 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.84 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.92 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 3.09 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 3.15 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.15 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.19 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.21 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.22 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.29 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.53 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.63 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.94 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 4.26 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 41.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 44.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |