Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 177 | 1.35 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.47 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.49 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.51 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 1.58 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 1.61 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.78 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 1.85 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 1.88 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.01 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.05 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.08 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.08 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.18 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.34 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.35 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.36 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.41 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.46 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.47 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.51 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.53 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.54 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.56 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.59 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.64 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.67 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 2.70 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.72 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.84 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.85 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.86 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.86 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.98 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.98 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.00 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.02 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 3.06 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.06 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.07 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.10 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 3.16 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 3.25 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.29 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.29 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 3.48 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.62 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.67 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.68 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 4.38 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 93.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 72.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |