Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.18 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.32 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.49 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 1.56 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 1.56 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 1.74 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 1.74 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 1.81 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 1.90 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.95 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 1.99 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.08 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.09 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.10 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.15 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.20 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.23 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.31 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.31 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.35 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.36 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.41 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.43 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.44 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.45 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.45 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.58 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.59 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.62 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.63 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.69 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.71 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.72 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.76 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.77 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.88 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.88 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.94 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.04 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.16 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 3.23 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.33 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 3.52 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.56 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 4.10 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 4.11 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 4.17 | 3.57 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 4.20 | 3.42 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 4.56 | 4.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 4.75 | 3.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 108.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 73.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 67.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 82.0°F | -13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |