Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.13 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.26 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 1.48 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 1.55 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.67 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 1.80 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 1.86 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.87 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 1.98 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 1.99 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.11 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.11 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.14 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.21 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.26 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.34 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.34 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.36 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.39 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.44 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.56 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.56 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.58 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.60 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.61 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.61 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.64 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.65 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.66 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.67 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.69 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.70 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.77 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.79 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.79 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.83 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.89 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.03 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.07 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 3.11 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.15 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 3.20 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.20 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.24 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.26 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.45 | -3.21 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.47 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 3.57 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 3.85 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 4.22 | -3.87 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 53.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 42.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 50.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |