Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.55 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.72 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.82 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 1.84 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 1.89 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 1.96 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.97 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.09 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.10 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.14 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.16 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.16 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.18 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.18 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.19 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.23 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.25 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.25 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.27 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.28 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.35 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.38 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.38 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.41 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.46 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.47 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.59 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.60 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.68 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.70 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.75 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.77 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.79 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.80 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.82 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.84 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.94 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.96 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.98 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.02 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.06 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.12 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.16 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.29 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.32 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.44 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.89 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 4.03 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 4.30 | 3.68 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 4.55 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 77.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 68.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 92.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 91.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |