Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 1.78 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 1.79 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 1.84 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 1.85 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 1.88 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 1.93 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.10 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.12 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.16 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.18 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.26 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.27 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.28 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.29 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.29 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 2.31 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.32 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.34 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.36 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.38 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.45 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.47 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.55 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.60 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.61 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.65 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.66 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.67 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.68 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.73 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.73 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.75 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.77 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.78 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.96 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 3.04 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.20 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 3.21 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.23 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.29 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.31 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.49 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 3.54 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.56 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 3.62 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 3.63 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 3.65 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.96 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 4.42 | 4.38 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 78.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 70.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 81.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 94.0°F | 89.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 69.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 102.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |