Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.39 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.51 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.66 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.70 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 1.76 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.86 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 1.89 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 1.91 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 1.93 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 1.94 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 1.95 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.04 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.06 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.09 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.12 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.19 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.24 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.27 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.28 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.32 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.35 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.36 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.36 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.40 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.45 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.46 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.48 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.51 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.52 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.57 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.62 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.65 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.65 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.67 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.68 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.85 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.87 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.88 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.90 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.90 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.01 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 3.03 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.04 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 3.18 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.19 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.42 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.46 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.68 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 3.70 | 3.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 4.12 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 77.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 56.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |