Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 1.55 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 1.69 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 1.76 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 1.76 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.80 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.85 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 1.88 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.99 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.01 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.04 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.07 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.08 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.14 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.15 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 2.17 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.19 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.30 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.31 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.32 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.37 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.41 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.41 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.44 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.46 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.48 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.49 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.59 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.60 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.61 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.63 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.67 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.69 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.73 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.74 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.75 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.82 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.84 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.00 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 3.05 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.17 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 3.18 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.25 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.39 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.44 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 3.50 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.54 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.57 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.60 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.79 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 4.17 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 81.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 44.0°F | 39.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 36.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |