Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.16 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.41 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.71 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 1.79 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 1.79 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 1.85 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 1.86 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.91 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 1.97 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.05 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.09 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.15 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.16 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.16 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.17 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.17 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.21 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.25 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.32 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.36 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.39 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.40 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.44 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.45 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.45 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.45 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.45 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.45 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.47 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.47 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.55 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.57 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.63 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.64 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.66 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.66 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.76 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.76 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.77 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.90 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.09 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.19 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.24 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.58 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.61 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.66 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.68 | 3.20 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.71 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 4.03 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 4.09 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 59.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |