Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.51 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.58 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.85 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 1.94 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 1.99 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 1.99 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.01 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 2.04 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.09 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.14 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.14 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.14 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.15 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.18 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.29 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.29 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.30 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.31 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.35 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.35 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.36 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.37 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.39 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.41 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.45 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.45 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.48 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.56 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.56 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.57 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.71 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.73 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.79 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.81 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.82 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.86 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.88 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.90 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.95 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.98 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.02 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.08 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.32 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.37 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.43 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.46 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.50 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 3.89 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 4.26 | 3.38 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 4.88 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 96.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 95.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 97.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 88.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |