Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
69833
3352032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-10 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 179 1.13 0.32 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 1.46 -0.17 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 1.65 -0.15 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 1.72 -0.96 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 1.72 0.41 48.0
Albany NY 179 1.87 -0.66 48.0
Nashville TN 179 1.94 0.21 48.0
Columbus OH 179 1.95 0.73 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 2.00 -0.13 48.0
Austin TX 179 2.07 -0.11 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 2.09 -0.02 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.10 0.32 48.0
Salem OR 179 2.11 0.54 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.13 -0.03 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 2.15 -1.39 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 2.21 -0.44 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.26 -1.23 48.0
Lansing MI 179 2.27 1.45 48.0
Charleston WV 179 2.32 1.73 48.0
Augusta ME 179 2.37 -0.07 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 2.38 1.24 48.0
Jackson MS 179 2.39 1.59 48.0
Providence RI 179 2.42 -2.23 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.46 -1.21 48.0
Richmond VA 179 2.47 0.85 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 2.51 1.31 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 2.52 0.21 48.0
Topeka KS 179 2.53 1.69 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 2.55 1.92 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.67 1.14 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.81 1.65 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.85 0.24 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 2.88 1.50 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 2.88 1.31 48.0
Juneau AK 179 3.01 -0.15 48.0
Helena MT 179 3.02 -1.39 48.0
Concord NH 179 3.06 -0.38 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 3.08 1.32 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 3.11 -1.82 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 3.11 0.52 48.0
Carson City NV 179 3.12 -1.37 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 3.17 -2.82 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 3.28 0.46 48.0
Denver CO 179 3.28 0.93 48.0
Olympia WA 179 3.28 -0.22 48.0
Springfield IL 179 3.47 3.32 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 3.59 -2.55 48.0
Boise ID 179 3.69 1.23 48.0
Pierre SD 179 3.87 1.85 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 3.90 -3.24 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 MDT Denver CO 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 MDT Boise ID 56.0°F 59.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Boston MA 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 MDT Helena MT 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Concord NH 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 54.0°F 50.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 03:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Providence RI 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0