Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.43 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 1.49 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.59 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 1.66 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.82 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 1.82 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.84 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.96 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.96 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.00 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.08 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.11 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.17 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.18 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.18 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.20 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.20 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.22 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.24 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.26 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.26 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.35 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.39 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.39 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.46 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.49 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.53 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.58 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.62 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.67 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.68 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.74 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.74 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.78 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.79 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.82 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.83 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.87 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.87 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.02 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.08 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.14 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.22 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.24 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.24 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 3.35 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.36 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.46 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.53 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 4.34 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 99.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 102.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 91.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 96.0°F | 92.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 87.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |