Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.24 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.57 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.62 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 1.63 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.69 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 1.84 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.91 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 1.92 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.93 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.93 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.95 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 1.99 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.04 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.16 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.25 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.32 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.35 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.37 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.39 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.45 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.45 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.45 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.48 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.49 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.51 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.52 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.59 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.59 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.60 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.66 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.70 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.79 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.81 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.82 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.96 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.97 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.98 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.99 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 3.08 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.12 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.13 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 3.32 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.39 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.41 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.49 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.54 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.57 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 3.96 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 4.08 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 4.14 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |