Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.61 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.62 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 1.78 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.81 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 1.82 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.90 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 1.91 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 1.91 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 1.94 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.94 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.95 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.97 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 1.97 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 1.97 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.07 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.16 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.22 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.22 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.24 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.30 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.33 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.39 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.40 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.45 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.55 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.60 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.62 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.67 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.73 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.76 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.77 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.82 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.82 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.83 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.89 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.92 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 3.00 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.01 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.12 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.12 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.13 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.18 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.29 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.39 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.40 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.45 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.53 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 3.66 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.67 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.86 | -2.91 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 37.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 61.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |