Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.73 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.86 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.05 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.06 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.08 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.08 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.09 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.12 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.16 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.20 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.21 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.23 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.24 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.24 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.27 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.28 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.28 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.37 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.38 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.40 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.43 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.46 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.49 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.51 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.53 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.57 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.58 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.61 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.63 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.64 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.67 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.68 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.73 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.78 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.78 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.88 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 3.02 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.06 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 3.07 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.09 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.26 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.29 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.43 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.53 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 3.54 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.56 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.91 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 4.03 | 3.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 4.43 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 69.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |