Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
71833
3448032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-12 02:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 171 1.56 -0.30 48.0
Little Rock AR 171 1.66 0.27 48.0
Lansing MI 171 1.80 0.84 48.0
Jefferson City MO 171 1.81 0.22 48.0
Columbus OH 171 1.82 0.32 48.0
Albany NY 171 1.87 -0.80 48.0
Annapolis MD 171 1.88 -1.01 48.0
Austin TX 171 1.89 0.16 48.0
Honolulu HI 171 1.92 -1.19 48.0
Richmond VA 171 1.99 -0.02 48.0
Jackson MS 171 2.02 1.16 48.0
Sacramento CA 171 2.06 -0.08 48.0
Cheyenne WY 171 2.11 -0.07 48.0
Trenton NJ 171 2.24 -1.84 48.0
Hartford CT 171 2.26 -1.32 48.0
Nashville TN 171 2.29 -0.24 48.0
Salem OR 171 2.30 -0.26 48.0
Charleston WV 171 2.32 1.70 48.0
Columbia SC 171 2.34 0.06 48.0
Augusta ME 171 2.36 -0.39 48.0
Madison WI 171 2.36 0.71 48.0
Saint Paul MN 171 2.39 0.26 48.0
Topeka KS 171 2.46 1.58 48.0
Harrisburg PA 171 2.46 -1.53 48.0
Raleigh NC 171 2.49 -0.85 48.0
Providence RI 171 2.52 -2.31 48.0
Lincoln NE 171 2.63 1.42 48.0
Atlanta GA 171 2.64 1.24 48.0
Boise ID 171 2.69 -0.05 48.0
Bismarck ND 171 2.81 0.77 48.0
Boston MA 171 2.82 -1.27 48.0
Helena MT 171 2.83 -0.83 48.0
Concord NH 171 2.85 -0.25 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 171 2.85 1.36 48.0
Frankfort KY 171 2.87 1.07 48.0
Carson City NV 171 2.87 -0.65 48.0
Phoenix AZ 171 2.90 -2.32 48.0
Dover DE 171 2.90 -2.13 48.0
Des Moines IA 171 2.96 1.67 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 171 2.96 1.49 48.0
Juneau AK 171 3.09 -0.32 48.0
Tallahassee FL 171 3.21 -0.19 48.0
Montpelier VT 171 3.23 0.97 48.0
Denver CO 171 3.35 0.90 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 171 3.41 -2.42 48.0
Olympia WA 171 3.41 0.39 48.0
Montgomery AL 171 3.44 1.50 48.0
Pierre SD 171 3.44 2.05 48.0
Santa Fe NM 171 3.73 -2.60 48.0
Springfield IL 171 3.80 3.25 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 18:00 AKDT Juneau AK 60.0°F 68.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 MST Phoenix AZ 100.0°F 102.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 PDT Sacramento CA 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 20:00 MDT Denver CO 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Hartford CT 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Dover DE 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 73.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 16:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 20:00 MDT Boise ID 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Des Moines IA 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Topeka KS 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Augusta ME 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Annapolis MD 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Boston MA 64.0°F 69.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Lansing MI 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 20:00 MDT Helena MT 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Lincoln NE 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 PDT Carson City NV 75.0°F 81.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Concord NH 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Trenton NJ 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 20:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 76.0°F 83.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Albany NY 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Bismarck ND 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 21:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 19:00 PDT Salem OR 63.0°F 70.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Providence RI 61.0°F 66.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 22:00 EDT Columbia SC 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0