Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.18 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.32 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 1.38 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 1.59 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.72 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.75 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.82 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 1.82 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 1.85 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.01 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.03 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.08 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.10 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.10 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.20 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.22 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.22 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.31 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.32 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.34 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.35 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.36 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.37 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.37 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.40 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.42 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.48 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.61 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.63 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.67 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.69 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.75 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.76 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 2.80 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.94 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.94 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.99 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 3.00 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.04 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 3.06 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.12 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 3.27 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 3.37 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.38 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.39 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.40 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 3.43 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.65 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 3.66 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.78 | 3.39 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 83.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |