Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 181 | 1.34 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.48 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.48 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.54 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 1.56 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 1.60 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.79 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 1.82 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 1.86 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.00 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.06 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.08 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.10 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.19 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.30 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.33 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.38 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.46 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.48 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.48 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.51 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.54 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.55 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.55 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.59 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.63 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.63 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.73 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 2.78 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.82 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.82 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.82 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.86 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.97 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.99 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.99 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.01 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.03 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.05 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.06 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 3.07 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 3.09 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.24 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.29 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 3.33 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 3.46 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.65 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.71 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.76 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 4.42 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |