Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.39 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.52 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.59 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 1.68 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 1.90 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.92 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 1.92 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.98 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.10 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.12 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.13 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.16 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.16 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.17 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.18 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.19 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.21 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.29 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.46 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.47 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.48 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.52 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.55 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.58 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.58 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.65 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.65 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.68 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.68 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.69 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.71 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.75 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.77 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.78 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.83 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.88 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.90 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.90 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.98 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 3.00 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.09 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.15 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.17 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 3.18 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 3.25 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.53 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 3.72 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 4.01 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 4.03 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 50.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 46.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 60.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |