Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 1.64 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 1.71 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.84 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 1.89 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 1.99 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.01 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 2.06 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.06 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.12 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.14 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.14 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.19 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.20 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.21 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.24 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.25 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.36 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.40 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.44 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.45 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.48 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.48 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.50 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.55 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.58 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.66 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.66 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.70 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.71 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.71 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.79 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.80 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.81 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.82 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.82 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.88 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.88 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.89 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.94 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.01 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 3.05 | -2.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.09 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.17 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.20 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.25 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.36 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.43 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.66 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.87 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 4.35 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 67.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |