Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.12 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.44 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.54 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 1.62 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 1.87 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 1.95 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 1.98 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 1.99 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.04 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.10 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.13 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.14 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.14 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.17 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.18 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.20 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.22 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.24 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.25 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.26 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.30 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.31 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.36 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.41 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.41 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.44 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.44 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.47 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.56 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.59 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.68 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.82 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.85 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.87 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.94 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.98 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.99 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.99 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 3.13 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.13 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.21 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 3.22 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.23 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.29 | -3.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 3.33 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.39 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.69 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.72 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.85 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.98 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 54.0°F | 46.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |