Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.52 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.62 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.88 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 1.92 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 1.98 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.99 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.01 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.02 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.04 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 2.07 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.11 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.24 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.24 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.26 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.27 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.28 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.31 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.31 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.34 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.35 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.36 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.37 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.39 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.40 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.40 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.44 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.44 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.45 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.49 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.57 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.63 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.67 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.70 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.73 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.82 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.83 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.85 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.85 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.00 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.01 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.03 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.24 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.37 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.46 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.48 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.54 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 3.85 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 4.45 | 3.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 5.15 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 69.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |