Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 180 | 1.18 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 1.65 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.68 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 1.72 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.78 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.79 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.83 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.97 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 1.99 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.07 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.14 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.20 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.22 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.22 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.23 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.26 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.27 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.30 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.34 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.37 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.40 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.42 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.42 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.46 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.46 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.47 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.50 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.52 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.53 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.53 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.53 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.54 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.56 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.62 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.71 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.74 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.76 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.78 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.80 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.88 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.24 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.24 | -2.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.48 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.53 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.53 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.58 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.70 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.81 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 4.08 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 4.14 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 44.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |