Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
35583
1708032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.66°
9500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-12 21:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 190 1.00 0.57 48.0
Tallahassee FL 190 1.78 -0.99 48.0
Albany NY 190 1.79 -0.35 48.0
Providence RI 190 1.84 -0.85 48.0
Juneau AK 190 1.85 -0.81 48.0
Topeka KS 190 1.88 0.65 48.0
Boise ID 190 1.93 0.43 48.0
Augusta ME 190 2.10 -0.59 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 190 2.12 -1.52 48.0
Lansing MI 190 2.16 -0.14 48.0
Madison WI 190 2.18 -0.01 48.0
Montpelier VT 190 2.26 1.34 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 190 2.27 1.35 48.0
Little Rock AR 190 2.28 0.81 48.0
Carson City NV 190 2.29 -0.57 48.0
Richmond VA 190 2.29 0.45 48.0
Honolulu HI 190 2.31 -2.25 48.0
Concord NH 190 2.32 -1.29 48.0
Hartford CT 190 2.34 -0.36 48.0
Trenton NJ 190 2.36 0.95 48.0
Phoenix AZ 190 2.38 0.11 48.0
Helena MT 190 2.45 0.58 48.0
Springfield IL 190 2.47 1.33 48.0
Montgomery AL 190 2.55 -1.22 48.0
Jackson MS 190 2.60 2.17 48.0
Boston MA 190 2.61 -1.39 48.0
Annapolis MD 190 2.65 1.14 48.0
Raleigh NC 190 2.66 -0.19 48.0
Saint Paul MN 190 2.67 -0.38 48.0
Columbia SC 190 2.68 1.08 48.0
Atlanta GA 190 2.73 1.93 48.0
Des Moines IA 190 2.73 -0.36 48.0
Nashville TN 190 2.75 2.22 48.0
Dover DE 190 2.77 -0.48 48.0
Salem OR 190 2.78 1.30 48.0
Bismarck ND 190 2.96 -0.47 48.0
Jefferson City MO 190 3.04 2.44 48.0
Lincoln NE 190 3.20 1.15 48.0
Harrisburg PA 190 3.21 1.55 48.0
Santa Fe NM 190 3.23 -2.07 48.0
Olympia WA 190 3.29 1.12 48.0
Cheyenne WY 190 3.31 -0.07 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 190 3.49 2.29 48.0
Columbus OH 190 3.54 1.53 48.0
Denver CO 190 3.56 1.72 48.0
Indianapolis IN 190 3.62 -0.37 48.0
Frankfort KY 190 3.63 2.79 48.0
Charleston WV 190 3.65 1.98 48.0
Pierre SD 190 3.96 1.10 48.0
Sacramento CA 190 4.42 4.38 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Montgomery AL 94.0°F 97.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 13:00 AKDT Juneau AK 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 14:00 MST Phoenix AZ 99.0°F 99.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Little Rock AR 99.0°F 101.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 14:00 PDT Sacramento CA 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 15:00 MDT Denver CO 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Hartford CT 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Dover DE 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Atlanta GA 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 11:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 15:00 MDT Boise ID 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Springfield IL 91.0°F 78.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 87.0°F 70.0°F +17.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Des Moines IA 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Topeka KS 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Frankfort KY 91.0°F 81.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 93.0°F 96.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Augusta ME 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Annapolis MD 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Boston MA 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Lansing MI 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Jackson MS 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 15:00 MDT Helena MT 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Lincoln NE 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 14:00 PDT Carson City NV 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Concord NH 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Trenton NJ 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 15:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 88.0°F 91.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Albany NY 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Raleigh NC 94.0°F 89.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Bismarck ND 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Columbus OH 84.0°F 69.0°F +15.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 100.0°F 102.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 14:00 PDT Salem OR 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Providence RI 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 17:00 EDT Columbia SC 97.0°F 94.0°F +3.0° 48.0