Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.57 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.64 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.65 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.89 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.90 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 1.92 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 1.92 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.94 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.97 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 2.02 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.10 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.11 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.17 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.18 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.19 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.20 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.22 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.25 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.25 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.28 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.40 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.41 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.42 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.43 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.43 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.51 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.66 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.74 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.74 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.82 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.85 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.86 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.92 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.94 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.96 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.96 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.97 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.02 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.03 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.12 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 3.17 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.23 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.57 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.59 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.60 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.63 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.66 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.70 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 4.03 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 4.33 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 43.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |