Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.35 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.60 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.73 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.74 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 1.97 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.16 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.16 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.18 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.19 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.19 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.19 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.22 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.24 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.24 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.29 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.35 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.35 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.36 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.38 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.39 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.41 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.43 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.47 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.54 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.61 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.66 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.66 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.74 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.75 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.80 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.80 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.81 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.83 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.84 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.95 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 3.04 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.21 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.21 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.32 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.32 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.35 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.36 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 3.49 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.55 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.56 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.64 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 3.72 | -3.32 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.73 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.90 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 4.45 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 38.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 93.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 90.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 60.0°F | +21.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 48.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 65.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |