Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.29 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.32 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 1.56 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 1.66 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 1.71 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.76 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.79 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 1.80 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 1.91 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.95 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.97 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.06 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.22 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.22 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.27 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.28 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.39 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.47 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.51 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.53 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.53 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.55 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.56 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.59 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.60 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.63 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.69 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.71 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.72 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.74 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.80 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.84 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.89 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.89 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.91 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.94 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.97 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.98 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.98 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.08 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.09 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.14 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.21 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.29 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.44 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.53 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.67 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 3.67 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 4.05 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 4.25 | -3.58 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 94.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 70.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |