Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
70933
3404832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8850 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-11 08:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 177 1.28 -0.08 48.0
Indianapolis IN 177 1.58 -0.37 48.0
Jefferson City MO 177 1.78 0.39 48.0
Honolulu HI 177 1.82 -1.08 48.0
Sacramento CA 177 1.89 -0.34 48.0
Austin TX 177 1.90 0.27 48.0
Albany NY 177 1.92 -0.77 48.0
Columbus OH 177 1.96 0.80 48.0
Nashville TN 177 2.08 0.02 48.0
Richmond VA 177 2.08 0.21 48.0
Lansing MI 177 2.09 1.21 48.0
Annapolis MD 177 2.12 -0.51 48.0
Cheyenne WY 177 2.15 -0.42 48.0
Harrisburg PA 177 2.20 -1.11 48.0
Jackson MS 177 2.21 1.40 48.0
Saint Paul MN 177 2.25 0.55 48.0
Trenton NJ 177 2.25 -1.96 48.0
Salem OR 177 2.28 0.07 48.0
Columbia SC 177 2.28 0.16 48.0
Raleigh NC 177 2.30 -0.49 48.0
Charleston WV 177 2.31 1.71 48.0
Augusta ME 177 2.32 -0.44 48.0
Hartford CT 177 2.40 -1.50 48.0
Providence RI 177 2.45 -2.25 48.0
Topeka KS 177 2.49 1.70 48.0
Madison WI 177 2.50 1.20 48.0
Dover DE 177 2.58 -1.98 48.0
Frankfort KY 177 2.60 1.07 48.0
Atlanta GA 177 2.63 1.15 48.0
Lincoln NE 177 2.68 1.62 48.0
Boston MA 177 2.80 -0.29 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 177 2.83 1.54 48.0
Tallahassee FL 177 2.86 -0.92 48.0
Phoenix AZ 177 2.88 -2.40 48.0
Des Moines IA 177 2.92 1.60 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 177 2.95 1.42 48.0
Montpelier VT 177 3.02 0.77 48.0
Juneau AK 177 3.03 0.02 48.0
Helena MT 177 3.05 -1.72 48.0
Concord NH 177 3.05 -0.54 48.0
Bismarck ND 177 3.07 1.24 48.0
Carson City NV 177 3.20 -0.94 48.0
Montgomery AL 177 3.21 0.79 48.0
Olympia WA 177 3.27 0.10 48.0
Denver CO 177 3.37 0.89 48.0
Boise ID 177 3.47 1.05 48.0
Santa Fe NM 177 3.50 -2.62 48.0
Springfield IL 177 3.64 3.44 48.0
Pierre SD 177 3.66 2.42 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 177 3.74 -2.80 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 00:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 42.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 01:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 97.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 01:00 PDT Sacramento CA 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 02:00 MDT Denver CO 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Hartford CT 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Dover DE 69.0°F 77.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-10 22:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 02:00 MDT Boise ID 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Springfield IL 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Des Moines IA 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Topeka KS 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Frankfort KY 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Augusta ME 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 77.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Boston MA 63.0°F 69.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Lansing MI 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 02:00 MDT Helena MT 58.0°F 61.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Lincoln NE 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 01:00 PDT Carson City NV 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 02:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Albany NY 59.0°F 64.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Raleigh NC 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Bismarck ND 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Columbus OH 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 01:00 PDT Salem OR 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 65.0°F 75.0°F -10.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Providence RI 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0