Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.60 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 1.82 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.83 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.90 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.92 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 1.94 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.97 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.99 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.02 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.09 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.12 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.15 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.15 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.24 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.24 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.29 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.32 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.36 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.36 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.41 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.43 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.45 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.45 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.48 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.48 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.52 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.54 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.58 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.60 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.65 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.65 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.67 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.70 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.72 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.73 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.74 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.77 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.78 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.85 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.90 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.92 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.02 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.04 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.07 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.21 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.36 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.45 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.45 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.77 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 4.01 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 97.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 112.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 97.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 98.0°F | 92.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 101.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 93.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |