Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
83583
4012032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.51°
9500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-21 21:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 190 1.28 0.47 48.0
Little Rock AR 190 1.58 0.67 48.0
Richmond VA 190 1.71 -0.92 48.0
Jackson MS 190 1.77 0.86 48.0
Montgomery AL 190 1.80 0.24 48.0
Columbia SC 190 1.81 -0.98 48.0
Honolulu HI 190 1.84 -1.80 48.0
Augusta ME 190 1.92 -0.20 48.0
Tallahassee FL 190 1.96 -0.49 48.0
Boise ID 190 1.97 -0.73 48.0
Frankfort KY 190 1.97 -0.15 48.0
Indianapolis IN 190 1.98 0.01 48.0
Boston MA 190 2.00 -1.32 48.0
Trenton NJ 190 2.09 -1.09 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 190 2.13 1.35 48.0
Charleston WV 190 2.18 0.99 48.0
Albany NY 190 2.19 -0.44 48.0
Jefferson City MO 190 2.22 -0.11 48.0
Concord NH 190 2.28 -0.90 48.0
Helena MT 190 2.31 0.57 48.0
Nashville TN 190 2.35 1.30 48.0
Annapolis MD 190 2.43 -1.59 48.0
Hartford CT 190 2.45 -1.15 48.0
Dover DE 190 2.45 -1.74 48.0
Providence RI 190 2.46 -2.12 48.0
Des Moines IA 190 2.50 1.52 48.0
Columbus OH 190 2.51 1.03 48.0
Saint Paul MN 190 2.52 1.19 48.0
Cheyenne WY 190 2.54 -0.74 48.0
Bismarck ND 190 2.56 -0.21 48.0
Lansing MI 190 2.66 1.92 48.0
Santa Fe NM 190 2.69 1.62 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 190 2.74 1.53 48.0
Atlanta GA 190 2.75 1.98 48.0
Harrisburg PA 190 2.77 -1.87 48.0
Pierre SD 190 2.78 1.41 48.0
Madison WI 190 2.81 1.95 48.0
Sacramento CA 190 2.82 2.58 48.0
Juneau AK 190 2.83 0.23 48.0
Carson City NV 190 2.86 1.93 48.0
Raleigh NC 190 2.93 -2.43 48.0
Topeka KS 190 3.18 -1.62 48.0
Montpelier VT 190 3.23 0.96 48.0
Denver CO 190 3.33 -0.27 48.0
Salem OR 190 3.37 2.78 48.0
Springfield IL 190 3.40 2.34 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 190 3.46 -1.48 48.0
Phoenix AZ 190 3.57 -0.90 48.0
Lincoln NE 190 3.68 1.58 48.0
Olympia WA 190 3.81 2.62 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Montgomery AL 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 14:00 MST Phoenix AZ 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Little Rock AR 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 14:00 PDT Sacramento CA 83.0°F 76.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 15:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Hartford CT 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Atlanta GA 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 11:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 15:00 MDT Boise ID 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Springfield IL 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Des Moines IA 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Topeka KS 69.0°F 75.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Frankfort KY 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 89.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Augusta ME 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Boston MA 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Lansing MI 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Jackson MS 97.0°F 90.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 15:00 MDT Helena MT 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Lincoln NE 62.0°F 70.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 14:00 PDT Carson City NV 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Concord NH 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Trenton NJ 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 15:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Raleigh NC 86.0°F 92.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Bismarck ND 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 59.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 14:00 PDT Salem OR 74.0°F 68.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Providence RI 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 EDT Columbia SC 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0