Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.13 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.37 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 1.56 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 1.60 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.69 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.82 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 1.85 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.86 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 1.95 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.99 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.07 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.11 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.29 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.30 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.30 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.32 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.35 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.40 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.42 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.49 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.50 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.51 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.54 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.59 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.60 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.60 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.61 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.64 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.67 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.71 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.71 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.72 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.74 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.84 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.92 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.97 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.98 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.00 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.05 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 3.07 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.14 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.14 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.17 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.20 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.32 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.42 | -3.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.46 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 3.53 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.76 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 4.16 | -3.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 101.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 82.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 77.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 94.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 101.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |