Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.15 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 1.41 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.70 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 1.78 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 1.79 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 1.84 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 1.87 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.91 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 1.95 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.08 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.09 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.14 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.15 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.20 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.22 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.23 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.25 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.26 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.33 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.34 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.41 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.42 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.43 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.43 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.45 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.45 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.45 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.46 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.46 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.47 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.55 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.61 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.63 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.63 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.65 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.67 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.74 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.77 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.90 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.09 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.22 | -2.63 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.23 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.59 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.62 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.65 | 3.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.68 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.70 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 4.04 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 4.09 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 54.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 51.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 58.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 42.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |