Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.60 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.62 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.83 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 1.83 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 1.89 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.90 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.90 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.94 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 1.95 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 1.97 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.97 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.98 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 1.98 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.00 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.12 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.17 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.19 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.23 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.26 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.32 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.34 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.44 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.44 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.47 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.57 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.58 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.70 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.71 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.77 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.78 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.79 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.86 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.87 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.90 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.00 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.04 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.06 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.10 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.11 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.23 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.26 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.31 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.36 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.44 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.54 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.57 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.66 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.69 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 3.82 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.84 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 77.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 102.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 59.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 73.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 65.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 64.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |