Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.54 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.59 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 1.71 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 1.85 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.88 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.97 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 1.99 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.04 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.06 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.19 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.23 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.24 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.24 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.26 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.27 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.28 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.28 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.30 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.30 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.31 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.33 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.33 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.34 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.41 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.43 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.43 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.43 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.45 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.50 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.51 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.57 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.59 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.62 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.63 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.64 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.65 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.71 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 2.77 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.77 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.81 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.85 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.89 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.91 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.71 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.72 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.75 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.86 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 4.10 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 4.25 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 5.15 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 42.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |