Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.17 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 1.32 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.48 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 1.56 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 1.58 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 1.79 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 1.79 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 1.85 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 1.91 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.96 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 1.98 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.07 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.11 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.12 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.13 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.20 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.22 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.33 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.33 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.36 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.38 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.41 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.41 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.43 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.44 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.45 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.56 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.59 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.60 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.66 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.68 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.69 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.75 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.77 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.79 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.90 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.90 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.97 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.05 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 3.20 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.22 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.40 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.53 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 3.54 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 4.08 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 4.12 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 4.16 | 3.57 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 4.21 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 4.61 | 4.19 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 4.78 | 3.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 104.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 72.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |