Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 173 | 0.98 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 1.72 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 1.75 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.86 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 1.95 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 1.97 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.99 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.15 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.16 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.25 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.25 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.25 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.26 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.30 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.33 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 2.34 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.34 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.38 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.39 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.39 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.42 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.42 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.43 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.46 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.56 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.61 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.61 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.61 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.63 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.65 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.72 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.73 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.74 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.77 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.77 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.79 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.86 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.89 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.92 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 3.01 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.08 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.17 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.18 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.65 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 3.72 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.72 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 4.01 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 4.04 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 4.09 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 4.38 | 4.35 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 68.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |