Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.03 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 1.63 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 1.74 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 1.79 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 1.82 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 1.84 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 1.96 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.98 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 1.99 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.04 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.06 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.06 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 2.12 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.16 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.18 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.18 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.18 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.20 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.24 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.31 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.34 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.34 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.35 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.44 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.46 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.47 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.47 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.48 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.48 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.51 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.52 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.55 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.60 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.62 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.67 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.69 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.80 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.85 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.87 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.91 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.95 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.01 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.05 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.55 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.56 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.78 | 3.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 3.92 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 3.94 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 4.03 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 4.20 | 4.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 75.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |