Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.27 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.58 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.71 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.76 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 1.81 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 1.82 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.85 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 1.91 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.95 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.96 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 1.97 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 1.97 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.02 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.09 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.12 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.15 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.21 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.23 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.30 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.31 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.37 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.44 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.44 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.45 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.45 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.47 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.50 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.51 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.55 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.57 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.69 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.70 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.74 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.76 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.78 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.79 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.80 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.83 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.86 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.88 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.89 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.15 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.21 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 3.35 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.36 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.38 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.47 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.59 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 3.62 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.77 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 72.0°F | -13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 94.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |