Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.54 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.65 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 1.77 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 1.81 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.86 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.96 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 1.96 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.05 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.12 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.14 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.17 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.20 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.25 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.25 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.26 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.27 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.28 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.30 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.31 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.32 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.34 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.35 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.41 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.42 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.42 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.49 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.51 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.55 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.65 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.68 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.68 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.78 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.80 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.88 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.91 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.91 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.92 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.96 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 3.04 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.05 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.12 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.17 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.21 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.34 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.38 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.59 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.75 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 4.16 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 4.48 | 4.11 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 4.84 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 83.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |