Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 1.43 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 1.64 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 1.72 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.76 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.80 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 1.86 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.90 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 1.94 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 1.97 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.01 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.05 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.10 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.16 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 2.18 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.19 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.27 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.29 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.29 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.33 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.37 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.40 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.48 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.50 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.51 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.52 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.55 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.57 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.63 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.63 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.66 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.69 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.71 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.73 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.80 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.82 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.87 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.94 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.03 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 3.08 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.18 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.19 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.29 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 3.34 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.47 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.53 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.56 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.64 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.66 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.72 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.95 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 84.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 91.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |