Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
74033
3553632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
9550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-13 22:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 191 1.59 -0.15 48.0
Richmond VA 191 1.62 -0.54 48.0
Little Rock AR 191 1.82 0.39 48.0
Trenton NJ 191 1.82 -1.14 48.0
Charleston WV 191 1.87 1.15 48.0
Austin TX 191 1.92 0.58 48.0
Jackson MS 191 1.95 0.34 48.0
Columbus OH 191 1.96 0.17 48.0
Annapolis MD 191 1.97 -1.05 48.0
Albany NY 191 1.97 -0.35 48.0
Honolulu HI 191 1.98 -1.18 48.0
Lansing MI 191 1.99 0.51 48.0
Sacramento CA 191 2.02 0.01 48.0
Jefferson City MO 191 2.02 0.45 48.0
Saint Paul MN 191 2.15 -0.65 48.0
Raleigh NC 191 2.18 -1.19 48.0
Harrisburg PA 191 2.18 -1.01 48.0
Nashville TN 191 2.23 -0.34 48.0
Salem OR 191 2.27 -0.34 48.0
Phoenix AZ 191 2.30 -1.50 48.0
Columbia SC 191 2.35 -0.02 48.0
Providence RI 191 2.46 -1.62 48.0
Hartford CT 191 2.47 -0.39 48.0
Augusta ME 191 2.47 0.34 48.0
Atlanta GA 191 2.55 1.12 48.0
Madison WI 191 2.57 0.62 48.0
Frankfort KY 191 2.68 0.40 48.0
Cheyenne WY 191 2.72 0.62 48.0
Dover DE 191 2.75 -1.97 48.0
Bismarck ND 191 2.81 0.34 48.0
Boston MA 191 2.82 -0.77 48.0
Boise ID 191 2.86 -1.24 48.0
Montgomery AL 191 2.92 0.73 48.0
Concord NH 191 2.93 0.55 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 191 3.04 0.74 48.0
Des Moines IA 191 3.06 2.16 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 191 3.06 1.14 48.0
Tallahassee FL 191 3.10 0.05 48.0
Helena MT 191 3.11 -1.21 48.0
Olympia WA 191 3.20 0.66 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 191 3.29 -1.84 48.0
Topeka KS 191 3.35 2.67 48.0
Denver CO 191 3.43 1.59 48.0
Lincoln NE 191 3.44 2.39 48.0
Pierre SD 191 3.54 2.27 48.0
Montpelier VT 191 3.55 1.88 48.0
Carson City NV 191 3.62 -1.52 48.0
Springfield IL 191 3.71 2.77 48.0
Juneau AK 191 3.79 1.11 48.0
Santa Fe NM 191 3.82 -2.67 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 AKDT Juneau AK 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 MST Phoenix AZ 103.0°F 104.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Little Rock AR 96.0°F 97.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 PDT Sacramento CA 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 MDT Denver CO 90.0°F 93.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Hartford CT 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Dover DE 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 91.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Atlanta GA 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 12:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 MDT Boise ID 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Springfield IL 81.0°F 75.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Des Moines IA 69.0°F 61.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Topeka KS 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Frankfort KY 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 94.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Augusta ME 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Annapolis MD 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 67.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Lansing MI 69.0°F 62.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Jackson MS 91.0°F 85.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 MDT Helena MT 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Lincoln NE 76.0°F 65.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 PDT Carson City NV 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Concord NH 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Trenton NJ 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Albany NY 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Raleigh NC 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Bismarck ND 64.0°F 71.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Columbus OH 82.0°F 74.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 17:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 98.0°F 99.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 PDT Salem OR 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Providence RI 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 18:00 EDT Columbia SC 87.0°F 91.0°F -4.0° 48.0