Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.52 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.57 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.87 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 1.95 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.00 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.00 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.01 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.02 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 2.05 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.11 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.13 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.17 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.19 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.19 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.29 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.29 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.30 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.30 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.31 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.33 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.36 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.36 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.39 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.40 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.40 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.41 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.47 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.48 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.52 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.60 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.63 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.70 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.70 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.71 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.81 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.83 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.89 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.91 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.91 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.03 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.05 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.07 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.30 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.43 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.43 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.44 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.45 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.81 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 4.32 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 4.93 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 60.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 65.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 68.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |