Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 1.72 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 1.74 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.76 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.79 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.99 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.01 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.14 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.15 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.19 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.22 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.26 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.28 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.30 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.32 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.32 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.40 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.41 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.44 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.46 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.48 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.51 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.52 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.53 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.54 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.56 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.61 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.63 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.63 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.66 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.66 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.71 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.72 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.73 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.74 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.80 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.88 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.89 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.91 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.94 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.99 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.01 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 3.09 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.13 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.15 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 3.19 | -2.78 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.44 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 3.59 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.59 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.84 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.95 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 60.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 51.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 62.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |