Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.55 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.68 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.69 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.85 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.90 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.90 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 1.94 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 1.95 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.00 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.05 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 2.08 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.10 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.10 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.13 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.16 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.16 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.17 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.21 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.24 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.24 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.29 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.39 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.41 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.44 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.47 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.50 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.62 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.65 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.77 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.81 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.83 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.87 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.93 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.98 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.01 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.03 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.05 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.10 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.10 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.26 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 3.27 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.29 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.34 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.47 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.62 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.69 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.73 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.78 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.98 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 4.07 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 99.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 80.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 59.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-14 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |