Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.53 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.74 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.74 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 1.76 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.78 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 1.81 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 1.91 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.91 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.97 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.01 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.05 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.05 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.09 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.17 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.19 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.20 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.25 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.25 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.29 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.31 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.36 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.37 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.40 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.42 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.42 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.44 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.51 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.53 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.58 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.63 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.66 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.74 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.75 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.83 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.84 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.87 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.95 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.02 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 3.07 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.10 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 3.11 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.20 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.30 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.33 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.36 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.69 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 4.07 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 4.18 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 4.39 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 4.75 | 3.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 92.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 57.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |