Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.19 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.27 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.63 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 1.68 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 1.72 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 1.80 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.92 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 1.94 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 1.98 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 1.98 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.01 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.04 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.08 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.08 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.19 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.23 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.27 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.28 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.34 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.37 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.39 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.41 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.46 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.47 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.48 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.49 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.52 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.53 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.56 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.65 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.74 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.76 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.81 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.84 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.88 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 3.01 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.01 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.04 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.06 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.20 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 3.36 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 3.43 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.58 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 3.77 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 3.89 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 3.93 | 3.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.96 | 3.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 4.51 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 4.55 | 4.17 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 111.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 102.0°F | 93.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 100.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 102.0°F | 100.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 98.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 101.0°F | 99.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |