Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.34 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.43 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 1.72 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.01 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.05 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.11 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.19 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.19 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.24 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.26 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.26 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.28 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.31 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.34 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.36 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.37 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.38 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.42 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.45 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.49 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.52 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.56 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.58 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.61 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.66 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.69 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.74 | -2.47 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.80 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.82 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.84 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.93 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.97 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 3.06 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 3.11 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 3.14 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.20 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.24 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.26 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.27 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 3.29 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.32 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 3.41 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.48 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.50 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 3.62 | -3.19 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 3.67 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.92 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.95 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 4.14 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 4.39 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 65.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 35.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 60.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |