Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.35 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.52 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.73 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.75 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.95 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.14 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.16 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.18 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.19 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.19 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.20 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.20 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.21 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.22 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.23 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.23 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.31 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.36 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.37 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.39 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.43 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.43 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.46 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.55 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.58 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.63 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.65 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.68 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.76 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.79 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.81 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.82 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.83 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.83 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.94 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 3.04 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.20 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.24 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.32 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.33 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.35 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.37 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 3.51 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.56 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 3.59 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.63 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 3.71 | -3.31 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.71 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.87 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 4.45 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 29.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 84.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 62.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 49.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 66.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |