Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.62 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.66 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 1.79 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 1.86 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.88 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.88 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.91 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.94 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.96 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.97 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 1.98 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.01 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.13 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.22 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.23 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.24 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.25 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.26 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.32 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.37 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.37 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.42 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.44 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.44 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.44 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.45 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.65 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.66 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.69 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.74 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.76 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.77 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.81 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.83 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.84 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.84 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.85 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.89 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.92 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.95 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.15 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.31 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.32 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.34 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.41 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.52 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.52 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 3.62 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.65 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.79 | -2.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 39.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 58.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 73.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 60.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 92.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 78.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |