Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 180 | 1.63 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 1.68 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.69 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 1.73 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 1.84 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 1.85 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.92 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 1.93 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.97 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.01 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.01 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.01 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.03 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.13 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.15 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 2.16 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.16 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.18 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.20 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.22 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.23 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.29 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 2.29 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.34 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.36 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.40 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.41 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.42 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.48 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.61 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 2.63 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.68 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.68 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.73 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.75 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.76 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.80 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.85 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.88 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.92 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.96 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.96 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 3.07 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.11 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 3.17 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 3.31 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.36 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.43 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.46 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 68.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |