Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.63 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.69 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 1.71 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 1.74 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 1.85 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 1.88 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.92 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 1.96 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 1.97 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 1.99 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.99 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.08 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.10 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.12 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.14 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 2.15 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.18 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.20 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.22 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.28 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.29 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.29 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.31 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.34 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.34 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.38 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.39 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.41 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.44 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.53 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.62 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.65 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.67 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.68 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.72 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.73 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.80 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.83 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.86 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.87 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.89 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.92 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.01 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.02 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.07 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 3.15 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 3.26 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.38 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.38 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.43 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 75.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |