Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
61033
2929632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
8550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-03 02:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 171 1.43 -0.32 48.0
Salem OR 171 1.49 0.13 48.0
Jackson MS 171 1.63 0.22 48.0
Nashville TN 171 1.66 0.87 48.0
Columbus OH 171 1.81 -0.64 48.0
Columbia SC 171 1.83 -0.60 48.0
Richmond VA 171 1.91 -0.02 48.0
Honolulu HI 171 1.95 -1.72 48.0
Raleigh NC 171 1.95 0.04 48.0
Topeka KS 171 1.99 -0.12 48.0
Boston MA 171 2.08 0.24 48.0
Des Moines IA 171 2.09 1.57 48.0
Sacramento CA 171 2.16 1.31 48.0
Frankfort KY 171 2.16 1.36 48.0
Concord NH 171 2.17 0.01 48.0
Jefferson City MO 171 2.19 1.92 48.0
Saint Paul MN 171 2.21 0.56 48.0
Little Rock AR 171 2.24 0.81 48.0
Atlanta GA 171 2.25 -0.01 48.0
Charleston WV 171 2.26 1.88 48.0
Springfield IL 171 2.30 2.06 48.0
Hartford CT 171 2.33 0.96 48.0
Providence RI 171 2.37 0.60 48.0
Juneau AK 171 2.44 0.80 48.0
Augusta ME 171 2.46 0.91 48.0
Lansing MI 171 2.47 1.20 48.0
Bismarck ND 171 2.50 -0.59 48.0
Albany NY 171 2.56 1.67 48.0
Boise ID 171 2.60 -1.56 48.0
Austin TX 171 2.67 1.55 48.0
Pierre SD 171 2.73 1.51 48.0
Tallahassee FL 171 2.75 -1.54 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 171 2.77 -0.02 48.0
Olympia WA 171 2.77 -0.84 48.0
Montpelier VT 171 2.80 1.43 48.0
Dover DE 171 2.85 0.87 48.0
Madison WI 171 2.85 1.42 48.0
Annapolis MD 171 2.87 1.19 48.0
Montgomery AL 171 2.88 -2.03 48.0
Helena MT 171 3.01 0.25 48.0
Carson City NV 171 3.05 -0.33 48.0
Lincoln NE 171 3.13 2.47 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 171 3.21 0.38 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 171 3.25 -0.41 48.0
Cheyenne WY 171 3.27 0.08 48.0
Santa Fe NM 171 3.36 -1.24 48.0
Trenton NJ 171 3.37 2.99 48.0
Phoenix AZ 171 3.46 -1.40 48.0
Denver CO 171 3.53 1.50 48.0
Harrisburg PA 171 4.33 0.40 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 18:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 66.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 19:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 100.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Little Rock AR 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 19:00 PDT Sacramento CA 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 20:00 MDT Denver CO 78.0°F 83.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Hartford CT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Dover DE 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 86.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Atlanta GA 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 16:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 20:00 MDT Boise ID 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Springfield IL 89.0°F 84.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Des Moines IA 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Topeka KS 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Frankfort KY 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Boston MA 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Lansing MI 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Jackson MS 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 20:00 MDT Helena MT 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Lincoln NE 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 19:00 PDT Carson City NV 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Trenton NJ 74.0°F 69.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 20:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Albany NY 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Raleigh NC 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Bismarck ND 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Columbus OH 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 21:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 19:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Providence RI 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 22:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0