Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
74633
3582432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.65°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-14 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 179 1.56 -0.42 48.0
Austin TX 179 1.66 0.72 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 1.67 0.02 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 1.89 -1.18 48.0
Charleston WV 179 1.92 1.05 48.0
Albany NY 179 1.93 -0.28 48.0
Columbia SC 179 1.94 -0.52 48.0
Little Rock AR 179 1.96 0.31 48.0
Jackson MS 179 2.00 0.35 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 2.08 -1.39 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.08 -1.11 48.0
Salem OR 179 2.13 -0.59 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 2.16 0.32 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 2.18 0.69 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 2.19 -1.32 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 2.19 -0.91 48.0
Columbus OH 179 2.20 0.43 48.0
Lansing MI 179 2.21 0.65 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 2.26 -1.44 48.0
Nashville TN 179 2.26 -0.45 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 2.37 -1.22 48.0
Augusta ME 179 2.40 0.42 48.0
Providence RI 179 2.42 -1.50 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.45 -0.04 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 2.45 -0.34 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.54 0.99 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 2.61 0.18 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 2.73 0.21 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.74 0.63 48.0
Boise ID 179 2.82 -1.19 48.0
Concord NH 179 2.84 0.91 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 2.85 0.26 48.0
Olympia WA 179 2.92 0.65 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.97 -2.25 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.97 -0.72 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 3.00 0.75 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 3.02 -1.48 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 3.07 0.99 48.0
Helena MT 179 3.09 -1.13 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 3.18 0.07 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 3.20 2.41 48.0
Pierre SD 179 3.24 2.10 48.0
Denver CO 179 3.47 1.15 48.0
Topeka KS 179 3.56 2.83 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 3.60 1.68 48.0
Carson City NV 179 3.66 -1.46 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 3.70 2.72 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 3.70 -2.48 48.0
Springfield IL 179 4.11 3.13 48.0
Juneau AK 179 4.17 1.46 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 44.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 88.0°F 94.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 04:00 MDT Denver CO 66.0°F 72.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 04:00 MDT Boise ID 49.0°F 51.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 61.0°F 56.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 59.0°F 63.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 77.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Boston MA 65.0°F 70.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 48.0°F 46.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 04:00 MDT Helena MT 47.0°F 49.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 64.0°F 60.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 49.0°F 48.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 66.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Albany NY 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 55.0°F 59.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 62.0°F 56.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 03:00 PDT Salem OR 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 64.0°F 71.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0