Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.54 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.63 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.89 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 1.89 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 1.95 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 1.97 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 1.97 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 1.98 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.05 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 2.06 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.10 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.23 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.24 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.25 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.26 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.28 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.28 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.29 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.34 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.36 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.38 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.38 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.39 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.40 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.41 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.41 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.45 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.46 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.47 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.52 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.57 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.61 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.62 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 2.67 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.72 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.75 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.79 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.84 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 2.86 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.91 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.94 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.06 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.16 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.38 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.50 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.52 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.53 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 3.91 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 4.52 | 3.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 5.22 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 74.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 71.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 73.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 71.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 77.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 73.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |