Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
66033
3169632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
8750 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-07 06:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 175 1.31 -0.67 48.0
Little Rock AR 175 1.37 0.85 48.0
Sacramento CA 175 1.59 0.39 48.0
Jefferson City MO 175 1.62 1.00 48.0
Nashville TN 175 1.66 1.08 48.0
Honolulu HI 175 1.74 -1.34 48.0
Raleigh NC 175 1.74 0.60 48.0
Des Moines IA 175 1.76 0.53 48.0
Salem OR 175 1.87 1.05 48.0
Austin TX 175 2.03 -0.22 48.0
Columbus OH 175 2.06 0.37 48.0
Columbia SC 175 2.13 0.24 48.0
Jackson MS 175 2.28 1.39 48.0
Albany NY 175 2.28 0.53 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 175 2.32 1.06 48.0
Augusta ME 175 2.32 0.35 48.0
Springfield IL 175 2.36 2.17 48.0
Boston MA 175 2.37 0.90 48.0
Frankfort KY 175 2.48 1.77 48.0
Topeka KS 175 2.49 1.51 48.0
Saint Paul MN 175 2.51 0.55 48.0
Concord NH 175 2.55 -0.97 48.0
Charleston WV 175 2.56 2.30 48.0
Dover DE 175 2.61 0.53 48.0
Cheyenne WY 175 2.62 -0.99 48.0
Atlanta GA 175 2.64 1.41 48.0
Lansing MI 175 2.71 1.67 48.0
Hartford CT 175 2.74 0.14 48.0
Providence RI 175 2.75 -0.46 48.0
Madison WI 175 2.79 2.15 48.0
Annapolis MD 175 2.81 1.44 48.0
Richmond VA 175 2.86 1.50 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 175 2.89 1.94 48.0
Trenton NJ 175 2.91 0.42 48.0
Tallahassee FL 175 2.95 -2.00 48.0
Montpelier VT 175 3.00 0.55 48.0
Harrisburg PA 175 3.03 0.95 48.0
Lincoln NE 175 3.05 2.62 48.0
Olympia WA 175 3.09 -0.27 48.0
Juneau AK 175 3.11 0.13 48.0
Carson City NV 175 3.13 -2.27 48.0
Helena MT 175 3.17 -0.81 48.0
Bismarck ND 175 3.29 1.21 48.0
Denver CO 175 3.30 -0.03 48.0
Santa Fe NM 175 3.38 -1.18 48.0
Montgomery AL 175 3.47 -0.34 48.0
Boise ID 175 3.68 1.10 48.0
Phoenix AZ 175 3.75 -2.06 48.0
Pierre SD 175 3.91 1.74 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 175 4.30 -3.61 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 22:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 23:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 95.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Little Rock AR 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 23:00 PDT Sacramento CA 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 00:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Hartford CT 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Dover DE 63.0°F 67.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Atlanta GA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 20:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 00:00 MDT Boise ID 62.0°F 55.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Springfield IL 71.0°F 64.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Des Moines IA 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Frankfort KY 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Augusta ME 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Annapolis MD 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Boston MA 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 00:00 MDT Helena MT 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Lincoln NE 79.0°F 72.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 23:00 PDT Carson City NV 56.0°F 61.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Concord NH 53.0°F 48.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Trenton NJ 59.0°F 63.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 00:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 69.0°F 75.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Albany NY 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Bismarck ND 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Columbus OH 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 01:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-06 23:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Providence RI 54.0°F 58.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0