Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
86933
4172832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
9250 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-24 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 185 1.51 0.72 48.0
Jackson MS 185 1.74 0.68 48.0
Juneau AK 185 1.82 -1.14 48.0
Honolulu HI 185 1.85 -1.81 48.0
Boise ID 185 1.91 -0.61 48.0
Augusta ME 185 1.99 -0.85 48.0
Richmond VA 185 2.06 -0.33 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 2.09 0.23 48.0
Albany NY 185 2.11 -0.48 48.0
Indianapolis IN 185 2.14 0.99 48.0
Helena MT 185 2.19 0.70 48.0
Austin TX 185 2.19 1.48 48.0
Trenton NJ 185 2.20 -1.30 48.0
Columbia SC 185 2.25 0.29 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 2.26 -0.11 48.0
Montgomery AL 185 2.28 1.23 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.30 -1.27 48.0
Jefferson City MO 185 2.30 -0.58 48.0
Bismarck ND 185 2.32 0.04 48.0
Saint Paul MN 185 2.36 0.61 48.0
Lansing MI 185 2.45 1.50 48.0
Dover DE 185 2.52 -0.99 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 2.55 -0.37 48.0
Pierre SD 185 2.57 0.70 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.60 2.14 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 2.60 0.94 48.0
Madison WI 185 2.61 1.71 48.0
Springfield IL 185 2.65 1.05 48.0
Harrisburg PA 185 2.67 -1.55 48.0
Hartford CT 185 2.68 -1.73 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 185 2.68 0.96 48.0
Santa Fe NM 185 2.70 0.89 48.0
Providence RI 185 2.74 -2.29 48.0
Columbus OH 185 2.76 1.66 48.0
Charleston WV 185 2.83 1.89 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 2.85 2.43 48.0
Carson City NV 185 2.85 2.12 48.0
Concord NH 185 2.86 -1.01 48.0
Topeka KS 185 2.89 -2.21 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 2.96 -1.01 48.0
Lincoln NE 185 3.11 -1.65 48.0
Denver CO 185 3.16 0.76 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 3.22 -1.21 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 3.23 3.05 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 3.47 2.16 48.0
Nashville TN 185 3.57 2.86 48.0
Raleigh NC 185 3.63 -0.56 48.0
Salem OR 185 3.65 2.74 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 3.68 -1.70 48.0
Olympia WA 185 3.78 2.74 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 80.0°F 73.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 45.0°F 46.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 10:00 MDT Denver CO 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Dover DE 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 76.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 10:00 MDT Boise ID 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Boston MA 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 75.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 10:00 MDT Helena MT 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 64.0°F 59.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Concord NH 61.0°F 66.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Albany NY 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 65.0°F 60.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 09:00 PDT Salem OR 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Providence RI 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 12:00 EDT Columbia SC 68.0°F 62.0°F +6.0° 48.0