Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.51 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.52 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.55 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 1.73 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.85 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.97 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 1.98 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 1.99 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.99 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 1.99 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.04 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.10 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.11 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 2.12 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.19 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.22 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.26 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.28 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.29 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.31 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.36 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.36 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.36 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.38 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.39 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.43 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.43 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.51 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.51 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.54 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.60 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.62 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.65 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.71 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.73 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.74 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.77 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.81 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.83 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.85 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.87 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.99 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.03 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.04 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.13 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.29 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.39 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.53 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.54 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 3.66 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 84.0°F | 73.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |