Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 186 | 0.97 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 1.79 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 1.82 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 1.94 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 1.95 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.06 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.15 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.16 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.19 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.19 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.20 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.20 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 2.22 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.23 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.31 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.33 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.34 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.34 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.35 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.36 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.39 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.39 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.41 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.47 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.51 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.52 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.55 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.58 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.58 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.60 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.62 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.63 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.68 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.69 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.72 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.85 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.87 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.89 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.96 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.99 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 3.02 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.05 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.06 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.51 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.54 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 3.82 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 3.98 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 4.02 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 4.06 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 4.30 | 4.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 89.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 98.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |