Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.34 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.72 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 1.86 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.93 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 1.97 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.13 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.16 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.36 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.39 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.40 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.43 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.44 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.48 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.51 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.51 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.53 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.60 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.68 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.69 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.70 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.72 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.76 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.77 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.79 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.79 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.91 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.94 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.94 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.97 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.98 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 3.02 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 3.04 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.04 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 3.04 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 3.08 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.09 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 3.12 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 3.16 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 3.33 | -2.91 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.40 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.40 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.44 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 3.45 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.62 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.67 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 3.85 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.91 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.93 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 4.08 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 4.19 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 30.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |