Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.13 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.18 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 1.51 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 1.52 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.77 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 1.85 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 1.86 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.88 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.88 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.06 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.09 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.13 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.15 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.16 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.26 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.31 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.35 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.41 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.48 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.49 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.52 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.52 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.60 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.64 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.68 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.68 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.68 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.69 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.69 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.70 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.74 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.76 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.77 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.79 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.83 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.84 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.93 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.02 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 3.07 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.08 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.08 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.11 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.13 | -2.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.16 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.22 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.26 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.49 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 3.67 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 4.15 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 4.20 | -3.47 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 102.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 92.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 100.0°F | 101.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 100.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |