Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.52 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.69 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.70 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 1.72 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 1.77 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.84 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 1.87 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.89 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.96 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.01 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.02 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.03 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.13 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.24 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.25 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.28 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.30 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.32 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.32 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.34 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.35 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.36 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.36 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.38 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.41 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.46 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.48 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.57 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.58 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.59 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.60 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.71 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.73 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.75 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.85 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.94 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.96 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 3.03 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.08 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 3.09 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.14 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.25 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.31 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.31 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.48 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.61 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 3.97 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 4.04 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 4.27 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 4.49 | 3.39 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 80.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 90.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |