Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.53 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.86 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.88 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.88 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 1.94 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.02 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.03 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.08 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.15 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.16 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.21 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.22 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.22 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.29 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.30 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.31 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.40 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.40 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.41 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.48 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.48 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.50 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.57 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.57 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.62 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.62 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.64 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.65 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.67 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.67 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.68 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.69 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.75 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.75 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.85 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.86 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.86 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.88 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.90 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.92 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.07 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.12 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 3.18 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.19 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.46 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 3.59 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.61 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 3.63 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.76 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.89 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 77.0°F | +19.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 64.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |