Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.54 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.70 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 1.80 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.84 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 1.88 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 1.95 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.96 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.09 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.09 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.15 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.17 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.17 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.18 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.18 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.19 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.20 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.25 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.26 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.27 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.28 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.34 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.36 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.39 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.42 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.43 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.46 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.61 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.61 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.67 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.72 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.76 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.77 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.79 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.80 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.82 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.85 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.97 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.98 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 3.00 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 3.01 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.07 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.11 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.14 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.30 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.32 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.47 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.89 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 4.00 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 4.26 | 3.80 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 4.60 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 83.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |