Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.71 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 1.83 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 1.86 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 1.86 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 1.89 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.90 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.93 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 1.93 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.94 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 1.96 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.01 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.06 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.08 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.13 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.13 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 2.21 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.25 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.28 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.28 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.30 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.30 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.31 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.36 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.40 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.43 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.45 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.54 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.55 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.57 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.61 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.62 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.63 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.65 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.66 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.69 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.71 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.72 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.75 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.82 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.84 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.88 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.89 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.03 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.04 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.12 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.17 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.35 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.42 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.77 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 4.05 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 107.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 72.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |