Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 175 | 0.98 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 1.74 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 1.76 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 1.89 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 1.95 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.98 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.00 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.17 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.18 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.23 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.25 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.27 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.28 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.29 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.31 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 2.33 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.35 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.38 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.38 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.41 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.42 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.43 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.44 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.46 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.58 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.58 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.59 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.62 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.63 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.67 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.69 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.71 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.74 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.75 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.77 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.79 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.86 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.91 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.94 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 3.00 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.05 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.15 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.15 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.62 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 3.69 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 3.73 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 4.02 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 4.06 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 4.11 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 4.37 | 4.34 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 74.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |