Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 191 | 1.83 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 1.87 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.95 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.97 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.02 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.03 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.09 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.10 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.14 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.16 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.17 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.20 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.22 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.27 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.27 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.28 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.30 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.37 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.37 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.41 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.45 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.48 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.49 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.49 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.52 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.53 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.54 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.56 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.58 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.61 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.65 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.65 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.68 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.68 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.85 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.88 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.91 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.91 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.94 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.05 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.16 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.25 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.27 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 3.32 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.34 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.57 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 3.63 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.66 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.84 | 3.14 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 4.05 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 92.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 67.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 68.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 65.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |