Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.61 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.63 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 1.77 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.83 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 1.84 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 1.86 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 1.93 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.95 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 1.99 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.99 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.02 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.04 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.14 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.18 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.23 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.27 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.28 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.30 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.32 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.36 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.41 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.41 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.42 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.44 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.46 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.49 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.59 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 2.63 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.73 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.73 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.81 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.82 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.84 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 2.85 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.85 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.88 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.90 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.91 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.94 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.95 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.17 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 3.20 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.20 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.34 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.36 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 3.38 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.42 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.48 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.76 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.81 | -2.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 42.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 73.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |