Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.21 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 1.56 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.65 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 1.78 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 1.79 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 1.84 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.87 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.93 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 1.95 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.05 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.07 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.11 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.18 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.19 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.19 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.25 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.31 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.34 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.35 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.35 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.40 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.42 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.44 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.44 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.45 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.45 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.46 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.48 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.48 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.53 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.55 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.55 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.56 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.59 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.65 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.72 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.75 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.76 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.80 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.81 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.08 | -2.44 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.40 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.43 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.56 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.68 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.68 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.70 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.77 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.89 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.93 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 74.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |