Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.23 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.60 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.63 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.68 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 1.71 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 1.88 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.91 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.93 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.94 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 1.98 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.04 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.06 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.07 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.13 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.30 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.36 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.37 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.42 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.43 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.43 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.43 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.45 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.46 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.48 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.48 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.50 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.60 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.62 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.64 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.69 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.73 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.74 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.79 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.80 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.89 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.91 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.95 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.95 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.10 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 3.19 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.32 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.33 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.35 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.36 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.51 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.52 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.55 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.90 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.98 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 4.03 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 53.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |