Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 187 | 1.81 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.94 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.95 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.97 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.02 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.12 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.16 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.16 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.20 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.20 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.20 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.26 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.31 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.32 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.32 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.34 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.36 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.38 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.43 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.44 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.44 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.45 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.47 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.50 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.52 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.53 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.55 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.56 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.58 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.64 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.65 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.68 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.70 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.78 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.84 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.84 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.86 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.95 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 3.05 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 3.05 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.09 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.21 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.32 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 3.41 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.48 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.52 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.63 | 3.38 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.87 | 3.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.90 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 4.24 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 59.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 72.0°F | -13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 65.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 59.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 59.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |