Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.20 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.27 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.66 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 1.72 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 1.75 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 1.79 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.91 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 1.93 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 1.97 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 1.98 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 1.99 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.03 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.04 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.11 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.13 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.19 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.22 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.28 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.29 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.33 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.35 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.38 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.42 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.46 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.46 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.46 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.50 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.50 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.54 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.54 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.63 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 2.74 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.76 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.79 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.84 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.86 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 3.01 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.03 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.04 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.09 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.24 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.38 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 3.41 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.54 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.73 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 3.86 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 3.90 | 3.21 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.93 | 3.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 4.50 | 3.27 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 4.51 | 4.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 100.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 111.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 96.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 70.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 79.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |