Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.46 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.56 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.61 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 1.79 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.87 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 1.91 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.02 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.05 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.06 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.09 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.12 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.14 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 2.17 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.20 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.22 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.24 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.25 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.28 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.29 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.33 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.34 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.36 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.38 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.40 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.43 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.46 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.50 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.56 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.56 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.57 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.60 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.68 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.77 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.78 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.79 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.82 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.85 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.88 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.91 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.91 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.95 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.96 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.01 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.19 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.24 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.25 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.57 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 3.58 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.64 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 90.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 98.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 80.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |