Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 1.69 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 1.76 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 1.79 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.80 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 1.85 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 1.87 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.97 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.01 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.06 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.08 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.09 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.13 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 2.16 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.17 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.18 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.30 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.30 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.32 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.38 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.39 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.40 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.44 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.45 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.48 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.49 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.58 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.58 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.61 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.63 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.66 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.67 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.72 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.72 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.76 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.81 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.83 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 2.98 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 3.04 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 3.18 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.18 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.28 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.38 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 3.46 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 3.47 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.55 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.57 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.57 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.78 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 4.19 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 77.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |