Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.69 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.72 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 1.77 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 1.78 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 1.83 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 1.85 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 1.88 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.00 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.01 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.02 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.02 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.03 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.04 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.04 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.04 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.08 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.13 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.13 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.15 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.15 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.17 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.17 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.19 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.20 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.28 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 2.29 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.34 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.39 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.49 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 2.55 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.58 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.67 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.68 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.76 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.76 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.78 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.84 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.84 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.85 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.85 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.85 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.88 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.03 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 3.03 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.05 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.20 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.34 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 3.38 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 3.53 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 3.79 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 108.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 94.0°F | 89.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 96.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 103.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |