Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
79283
3805632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
8800 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-18 07:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 176 1.53 0.70 48.0
Richmond VA 176 1.68 -0.14 48.0
Salem OR 176 1.76 0.20 48.0
Charleston WV 176 1.79 0.80 48.0
Indianapolis IN 176 1.86 -0.49 48.0
Honolulu HI 176 1.93 -1.72 48.0
Augusta ME 176 1.98 0.40 48.0
Providence RI 176 2.08 -1.15 48.0
Trenton NJ 176 2.11 -1.00 48.0
Concord NH 176 2.13 -0.34 48.0
Little Rock AR 176 2.16 0.91 48.0
Nashville TN 176 2.16 0.47 48.0
Columbia SC 176 2.21 -0.98 48.0
Montgomery AL 176 2.22 -0.22 48.0
Frankfort KY 176 2.22 -0.33 48.0
Jackson MS 176 2.24 0.68 48.0
Albany NY 176 2.27 0.07 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 176 2.28 0.49 48.0
Tallahassee FL 176 2.29 0.24 48.0
Jefferson City MO 176 2.30 0.06 48.0
Hartford CT 176 2.32 0.34 48.0
Sacramento CA 176 2.38 1.99 48.0
Des Moines IA 176 2.38 1.59 48.0
Boston MA 176 2.40 -0.95 48.0
Annapolis MD 176 2.47 -1.24 48.0
Columbus OH 176 2.48 0.48 48.0
Boise ID 176 2.51 -1.81 48.0
Raleigh NC 176 2.60 -1.88 48.0
Saint Paul MN 176 2.68 -0.10 48.0
Bismarck ND 176 2.69 -0.33 48.0
Atlanta GA 176 2.73 1.59 48.0
Dover DE 176 2.75 -1.65 48.0
Olympia WA 176 2.81 1.45 48.0
Santa Fe NM 176 2.85 0.07 48.0
Harrisburg PA 176 2.85 -1.76 48.0
Madison WI 176 2.86 1.23 48.0
Helena MT 176 2.93 -0.39 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 176 2.98 0.58 48.0
Phoenix AZ 176 3.04 0.23 48.0
Lansing MI 176 3.05 1.42 48.0
Pierre SD 176 3.09 1.66 48.0
Cheyenne WY 176 3.11 -0.07 48.0
Springfield IL 176 3.15 1.32 48.0
Carson City NV 176 3.29 -0.79 48.0
Montpelier VT 176 3.36 1.22 48.0
Denver CO 176 3.53 -0.58 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 176 3.82 -1.86 48.0
Topeka KS 176 4.09 0.93 48.0
Lincoln NE 176 4.39 4.04 48.0
Juneau AK 176 4.71 1.97 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Montgomery AL 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 23:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 49.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 00:00 MST Phoenix AZ 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Little Rock AR 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 00:00 PDT Sacramento CA 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 01:00 MDT Denver CO 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Hartford CT 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Dover DE 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 69.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 21:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 01:00 MDT Boise ID 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Des Moines IA 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Topeka KS 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Augusta ME 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Annapolis MD 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Boston MA 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 56.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Jackson MS 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 01:00 MDT Helena MT 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Lincoln NE 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 00:00 PDT Carson City NV 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Concord NH 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Trenton NJ 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 01:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Albany NY 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Raleigh NC 69.0°F 78.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Bismarck ND 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 00:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Providence RI 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 EDT Columbia SC 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0