Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.57 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.68 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.85 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.87 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.87 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.88 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 1.94 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 1.94 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 1.95 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.01 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.02 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.08 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.14 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.15 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.19 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.25 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.31 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.31 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.32 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.36 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.36 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.38 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.39 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.39 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.40 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.44 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.53 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.54 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.57 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.61 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.71 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.73 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.75 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.77 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.80 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.84 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.86 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.92 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.92 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.96 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.06 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.09 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.12 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.13 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.14 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.32 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.54 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.60 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.92 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.96 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 83.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 103.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |