Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
42083
2020032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
8800 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-18 07:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 176 1.20 0.39 48.0
Jackson MS 176 1.23 0.67 48.0
Little Rock AR 176 1.55 -0.23 48.0
Hartford CT 176 1.74 0.97 48.0
Providence RI 176 1.77 0.31 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 176 1.78 0.20 48.0
Honolulu HI 176 1.84 -0.84 48.0
Lansing MI 176 1.88 -0.10 48.0
Madison WI 176 1.91 0.17 48.0
Nashville TN 176 1.93 1.50 48.0
Augusta ME 176 1.99 0.43 48.0
Albany NY 176 2.01 0.06 48.0
Concord NH 176 2.03 -0.40 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 176 2.06 0.31 48.0
Boston MA 176 2.07 0.14 48.0
Raleigh NC 176 2.13 1.15 48.0
Richmond VA 176 2.27 0.45 48.0
Salem OR 176 2.34 1.07 48.0
Boise ID 176 2.36 -0.48 48.0
Lincoln NE 176 2.36 0.29 48.0
Tallahassee FL 176 2.39 0.28 48.0
Atlanta GA 176 2.47 1.65 48.0
Saint Paul MN 176 2.47 -0.98 48.0
Trenton NJ 176 2.47 1.09 48.0
Dover DE 176 2.49 0.60 48.0
Helena MT 176 2.51 -0.16 48.0
Harrisburg PA 176 2.51 0.10 48.0
Pierre SD 176 2.52 -1.24 48.0
Olympia WA 176 2.53 -0.07 48.0
Sacramento CA 176 2.56 1.10 48.0
Des Moines IA 176 2.56 0.52 48.0
Carson City NV 176 2.56 -1.05 48.0
Topeka KS 176 2.64 1.59 48.0
Jefferson City MO 176 2.85 2.45 48.0
Montpelier VT 176 2.86 0.88 48.0
Annapolis MD 176 2.89 0.57 48.0
Phoenix AZ 176 3.00 -1.36 48.0
Denver CO 176 3.15 0.88 48.0
Santa Fe NM 176 3.20 -2.13 48.0
Bismarck ND 176 3.26 -2.39 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 176 3.35 -1.49 48.0
Columbia SC 176 3.41 3.11 48.0
Montgomery AL 176 3.59 0.57 48.0
Cheyenne WY 176 3.66 -0.10 48.0
Juneau AK 176 3.74 -0.05 48.0
Charleston WV 176 3.85 2.40 48.0
Columbus OH 176 3.93 2.95 48.0
Springfield IL 176 4.11 3.60 48.0
Indianapolis IN 176 4.73 3.74 48.0
Frankfort KY 176 4.74 4.25 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Montgomery AL 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 101.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Little Rock AR 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 MDT Denver CO 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Atlanta GA 80.0°F 73.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 21:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Springfield IL 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Des Moines IA 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Topeka KS 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Frankfort KY 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Jackson MS 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 MDT Helena MT 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Lincoln NE 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 PDT Carson City NV 69.0°F 75.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Concord NH 63.0°F 69.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Trenton NJ 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Albany NY 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Bismarck ND 61.0°F 66.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Columbus OH 65.0°F 70.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 02:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 PDT Salem OR 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Providence RI 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 03:00 EDT Columbia SC 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 48.0