Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.66 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 1.70 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 1.86 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.96 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 2.02 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.13 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.18 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.19 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.21 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.22 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.23 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.24 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.26 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.26 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.41 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.43 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.44 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.47 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.49 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.52 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.55 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.57 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.58 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.60 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.66 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.67 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.68 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.71 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.71 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.72 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.74 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.78 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.78 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.79 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.80 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.89 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.91 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.94 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.94 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.04 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 3.09 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.09 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.18 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.20 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 3.38 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.42 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.45 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.48 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 4.09 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 4.40 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 67.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 55.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |