Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.05 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.42 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.56 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 1.60 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 1.88 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 1.88 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 1.89 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 1.99 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.06 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.10 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.12 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.12 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.15 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.15 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.16 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.18 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.19 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.23 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.25 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.26 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.31 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.32 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.33 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.38 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.41 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.44 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.47 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.58 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.58 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.68 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.81 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 2.89 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.92 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.97 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.98 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.98 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 3.03 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 3.08 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.12 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.19 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 3.20 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.24 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.29 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.31 | -3.21 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 3.38 | -2.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.67 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.69 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.89 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.94 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 51.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |