Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 1.72 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 1.78 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 1.78 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.83 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.85 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 1.87 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.95 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 1.99 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.07 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.08 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.12 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.14 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 2.15 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.17 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.18 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.28 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.28 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.33 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.36 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.39 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.41 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.45 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.45 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.45 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.47 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.56 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.57 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.59 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.62 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.68 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.68 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.69 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.69 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.78 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.79 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.81 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.98 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 3.02 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.15 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.21 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.32 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.35 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.48 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.51 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.51 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.54 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.54 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.83 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 4.22 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 86.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 74.0°F | 82.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |