Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.03 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.43 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.53 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 1.62 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 1.82 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 1.83 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 1.92 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.96 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.09 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.12 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.13 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.14 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.16 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.16 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.16 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.16 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.22 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.24 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.25 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.27 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.31 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.36 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.36 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.39 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.42 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.46 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.53 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.53 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.56 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.60 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.71 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.80 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 2.91 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.97 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.97 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 3.01 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.02 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.02 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.03 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.06 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 3.15 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.17 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.23 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.24 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.31 | -3.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.41 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 3.43 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.66 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.91 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.93 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 62.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |