Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.41 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.47 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 1.50 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.68 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.73 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 1.86 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.88 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.94 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 1.99 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.13 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.16 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.17 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.22 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.23 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.34 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.34 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.35 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.36 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.40 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.42 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.44 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.45 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.46 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.50 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.54 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.57 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.57 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.59 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.63 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.65 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.71 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.79 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.82 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.84 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.86 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.87 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.89 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.90 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.94 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.97 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 3.03 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 3.07 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.33 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.39 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.49 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.53 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.54 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.55 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.57 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.62 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 106.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 101.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 102.0°F | 93.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 66.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |