Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.23 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.57 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.63 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.68 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 1.69 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 1.88 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.92 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.92 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.92 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 1.96 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 1.98 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 1.99 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.06 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.14 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.30 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.35 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.37 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.37 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.39 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.43 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.45 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.46 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.47 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.48 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.48 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.49 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.61 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.62 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.63 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.67 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.71 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.77 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.80 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.81 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.91 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.92 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.95 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.96 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.10 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 3.14 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.25 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 3.32 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.38 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.38 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.49 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.53 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.56 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.92 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 4.02 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 4.07 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |