Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.37 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.50 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.72 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 1.77 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 1.93 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.07 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.09 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.10 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.10 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.13 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.17 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.18 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.19 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.19 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.19 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.23 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.26 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.36 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.37 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.40 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.44 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.44 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.46 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.49 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.49 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.50 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.67 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.72 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.77 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.81 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.81 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.81 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.83 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.87 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.94 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.99 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 3.18 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.23 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.26 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.28 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.31 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 3.34 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.47 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 3.48 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 3.51 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.61 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.61 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 3.73 | -3.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.79 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 4.49 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 38.0°F | 30.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 52.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 56.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 59.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 53.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 52.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |