Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
78533
3769632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.60°
9250 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-17 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 185 1.51 0.71 48.0
Richmond VA 185 1.58 -0.14 48.0
Indianapolis IN 185 1.86 -0.45 48.0
Albany NY 185 1.95 -0.25 48.0
Augusta ME 185 1.96 0.28 48.0
Charleston WV 185 2.01 0.92 48.0
Providence RI 185 2.02 -1.08 48.0
Salem OR 185 2.03 0.08 48.0
Honolulu HI 185 2.05 -1.85 48.0
Trenton NJ 185 2.11 -1.13 48.0
Concord NH 185 2.14 -0.38 48.0
Jackson MS 185 2.17 0.61 48.0
Little Rock AR 185 2.21 0.77 48.0
Columbia SC 185 2.21 -1.09 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 2.30 -0.30 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.30 -0.82 48.0
Nashville TN 185 2.30 0.09 48.0
Hartford CT 185 2.32 0.12 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 2.33 1.44 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 2.34 -1.22 48.0
Jefferson City MO 185 2.36 0.46 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 2.37 1.42 48.0
Saint Paul MN 185 2.37 -0.57 48.0
Montgomery AL 185 2.39 -0.43 48.0
Raleigh NC 185 2.39 -1.70 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 2.41 0.69 48.0
Columbus OH 185 2.44 0.25 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 2.46 0.36 48.0
Boise ID 185 2.46 -1.86 48.0
Lansing MI 185 2.56 0.84 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.60 1.41 48.0
Madison WI 185 2.63 0.59 48.0
Dover DE 185 2.71 -1.77 48.0
Bismarck ND 185 2.71 0.21 48.0
Santa Fe NM 185 2.81 0.03 48.0
Olympia WA 185 2.81 1.49 48.0
Harrisburg PA 185 2.86 -2.14 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 2.89 -0.05 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 2.89 0.29 48.0
Helena MT 185 3.01 -0.69 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 185 3.05 0.62 48.0
Pierre SD 185 3.10 1.77 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 3.33 1.14 48.0
Denver CO 185 3.43 0.05 48.0
Carson City NV 185 3.44 -0.61 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 3.45 -1.31 48.0
Springfield IL 185 3.46 2.18 48.0
Topeka KS 185 3.79 1.35 48.0
Lincoln NE 185 4.35 3.46 48.0
Juneau AK 185 4.97 2.39 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 51.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 10:00 MDT Denver CO 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Dover DE 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 10:00 MDT Boise ID 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 88.0°F 91.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 85.0°F 91.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 89.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Boston MA 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 70.0°F 63.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 10:00 MDT Helena MT 56.0°F 51.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 57.0°F 61.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Concord NH 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 64.0°F 60.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Albany NY 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 57.0°F 53.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 84.0°F 77.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 09:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Providence RI 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 EDT Columbia SC 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0