Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.18 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.56 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.80 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 1.80 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 1.89 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.89 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 1.94 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.95 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.98 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.98 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.11 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.12 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.14 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.15 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.17 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.21 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.22 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.27 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.29 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.31 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.33 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.37 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.37 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.41 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.46 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.55 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.59 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.60 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.63 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.64 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.76 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.78 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.86 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.88 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.93 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.97 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.05 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.05 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.08 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.09 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.15 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.24 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.28 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.30 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.40 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 3.46 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.53 | -2.73 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.70 | 3.59 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.70 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.79 | -3.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 107.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 92.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |