Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
60533
2905632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.48°
9250 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-02 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 185 1.51 -0.37 48.0
Indianapolis IN 185 1.52 -0.58 48.0
Jackson MS 185 1.55 -0.06 48.0
Salem OR 185 1.73 0.42 48.0
Columbus OH 185 1.85 -0.72 48.0
Saint Paul MN 185 1.97 0.72 48.0
Topeka KS 185 1.98 -0.19 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 1.99 1.44 48.0
Raleigh NC 185 1.99 0.24 48.0
Nashville TN 185 1.99 1.18 48.0
Columbia SC 185 2.04 -0.42 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.10 0.04 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 2.11 1.29 48.0
Honolulu HI 185 2.12 -2.02 48.0
Concord NH 185 2.19 0.06 48.0
Jefferson City MO 185 2.22 1.46 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 2.26 0.62 48.0
Charleston WV 185 2.28 1.94 48.0
Springfield IL 185 2.29 1.60 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 2.31 1.54 48.0
Little Rock AR 185 2.36 0.52 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.36 0.36 48.0
Bismarck ND 185 2.36 -0.49 48.0
Providence RI 185 2.38 0.35 48.0
Lansing MI 185 2.39 1.15 48.0
Hartford CT 185 2.43 0.55 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 2.43 -0.93 48.0
Juneau AK 185 2.51 1.29 48.0
Austin TX 185 2.51 1.72 48.0
Augusta ME 185 2.54 0.51 48.0
Albany NY 185 2.60 1.25 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 2.62 1.33 48.0
Dover DE 185 2.65 0.36 48.0
Pierre SD 185 2.71 1.69 48.0
Madison WI 185 2.73 0.97 48.0
Olympia WA 185 2.74 -0.55 48.0
Boise ID 185 2.77 -1.83 48.0
Montgomery AL 185 2.81 -1.75 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 2.83 0.19 48.0
Helena MT 185 2.85 -0.34 48.0
Trenton NJ 185 2.87 2.33 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 2.99 -0.11 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 3.03 -0.32 48.0
Carson City NV 185 3.04 -0.48 48.0
Lincoln NE 185 3.13 2.18 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 185 3.29 0.42 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 3.39 -1.46 48.0
Santa Fe NM 185 3.53 -1.53 48.0
Denver CO 185 3.54 1.56 48.0
Harrisburg PA 185 3.66 -0.13 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 47.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 88.0°F 92.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 10:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Dover DE 85.0°F 79.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 89.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 10:00 MDT Boise ID 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 92.0°F 92.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 93.0°F 88.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Boston MA 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 10:00 MDT Helena MT 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Concord NH 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 78.0°F 70.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Albany NY 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 68.0°F 74.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 09:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 84.0°F 73.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 12:00 EDT Columbia SC 90.0°F 93.0°F -3.0° 48.0