Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 174 | 1.21 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 1.68 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.68 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 1.73 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.74 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.79 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.83 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 1.98 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 1.99 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.00 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.08 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.21 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.22 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.22 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.26 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.27 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.28 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.29 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.31 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.37 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.39 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.41 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.45 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.45 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.47 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.47 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.47 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.50 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.51 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.51 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.52 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.53 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.56 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.66 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.71 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.73 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.74 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.79 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.81 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.92 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.20 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.30 | -2.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.36 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.59 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 3.64 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.66 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.76 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.80 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 4.07 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 4.19 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 57.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |