Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
49233
2363232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.55°
8750 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-24 06:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Juneau AK 175 1.57 0.40 48.0
Austin TX 175 1.67 1.26 48.0
Honolulu HI 175 1.86 -0.92 48.0
Jackson MS 175 1.87 0.90 48.0
Raleigh NC 175 1.87 0.77 48.0
Richmond VA 175 1.87 0.06 48.0
Saint Paul MN 175 1.93 -0.19 48.0
Charleston WV 175 1.93 0.28 48.0
Frankfort KY 175 1.94 0.77 48.0
Boise ID 175 2.01 -0.81 48.0
Annapolis MD 175 2.01 1.09 48.0
Lansing MI 175 2.09 0.65 48.0
Dover DE 175 2.15 -0.14 48.0
Indianapolis IN 175 2.15 -1.07 48.0
Columbus OH 175 2.18 -1.41 48.0
Sacramento CA 175 2.27 0.26 48.0
Des Moines IA 175 2.30 -1.65 48.0
Jefferson City MO 175 2.34 2.02 48.0
Nashville TN 175 2.34 1.11 48.0
Springfield IL 175 2.35 1.72 48.0
Albany NY 175 2.36 -0.01 48.0
Providence RI 175 2.36 0.92 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 175 2.38 2.19 48.0
Trenton NJ 175 2.39 1.41 48.0
Harrisburg PA 175 2.41 1.45 48.0
Augusta ME 175 2.43 -1.70 48.0
Columbia SC 175 2.55 0.98 48.0
Madison WI 175 2.56 1.67 48.0
Boston MA 175 2.57 1.29 48.0
Salem OR 175 2.59 -0.33 48.0
Atlanta GA 175 2.71 2.20 48.0
Montgomery AL 175 2.75 -0.14 48.0
Tallahassee FL 175 2.75 1.33 48.0
Pierre SD 175 2.75 -0.35 48.0
Lincoln NE 175 2.82 1.37 48.0
Hartford CT 175 2.83 0.59 48.0
Topeka KS 175 2.83 2.26 48.0
Montpelier VT 175 2.89 0.70 48.0
Helena MT 175 2.93 -1.06 48.0
Little Rock AR 175 2.95 -1.05 48.0
Carson City NV 175 3.05 -2.29 48.0
Santa Fe NM 175 3.08 0.55 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 175 3.11 0.86 48.0
Bismarck ND 175 3.12 -1.46 48.0
Concord NH 175 3.13 -1.49 48.0
Phoenix AZ 175 3.36 -1.28 48.0
Denver CO 175 3.54 0.16 48.0
Cheyenne WY 175 3.59 0.53 48.0
Olympia WA 175 3.89 -1.80 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 175 3.94 -1.57 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 82.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 22:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 23:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 90.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Little Rock AR 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 23:00 PDT Sacramento CA 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 00:00 MDT Denver CO 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Hartford CT 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Dover DE 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 00:00 MDT Boise ID 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Springfield IL 64.0°F 58.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Des Moines IA 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Topeka KS 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Frankfort KY 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Augusta ME 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Annapolis MD 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Lansing MI 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 00:00 MDT Helena MT 65.0°F 71.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Lincoln NE 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 23:00 PDT Carson City NV 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Concord NH 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Trenton NJ 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 00:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Albany NY 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Raleigh NC 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Bismarck ND 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Columbus OH 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 23:00 PDT Salem OR 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Providence RI 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 EDT Columbia SC 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0