Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.65 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.68 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.79 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.81 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.85 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.87 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 1.89 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 1.91 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 1.94 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.95 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 1.95 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.96 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 1.99 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.13 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.20 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.21 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.22 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.23 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.35 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.37 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.44 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.44 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.45 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.51 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.59 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.65 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.66 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.68 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.77 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.83 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.83 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.87 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.88 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.90 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.91 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.97 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.05 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.12 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.14 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.18 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.18 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.30 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.36 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.43 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.49 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 3.51 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.54 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.75 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.95 | -3.08 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 64.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 60.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |