Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
46533
2233632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
8450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-22 00:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 169 1.41 0.94 48.0
Jackson MS 169 1.69 0.79 48.0
Honolulu HI 169 1.73 -0.08 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 169 1.82 1.41 48.0
Raleigh NC 169 1.88 0.70 48.0
Richmond VA 169 1.88 -0.18 48.0
Dover DE 169 1.97 0.18 48.0
Saint Paul MN 169 2.00 -0.34 48.0
Lansing MI 169 2.01 0.21 48.0
Charleston WV 169 2.15 0.56 48.0
Sacramento CA 169 2.22 0.43 48.0
Columbus OH 169 2.25 -0.36 48.0
Boise ID 169 2.28 -1.12 48.0
Annapolis MD 169 2.30 0.61 48.0
Little Rock AR 169 2.31 -0.93 48.0
Harrisburg PA 169 2.32 0.99 48.0
Augusta ME 169 2.35 -1.01 48.0
Frankfort KY 169 2.36 1.49 48.0
Albany NY 169 2.37 1.05 48.0
Helena MT 169 2.44 -1.32 48.0
Providence RI 169 2.44 0.35 48.0
Carson City NV 169 2.50 -1.66 48.0
Boston MA 169 2.54 0.62 48.0
Indianapolis IN 169 2.63 0.71 48.0
Trenton NJ 169 2.64 1.59 48.0
Madison WI 169 2.68 1.44 48.0
Nashville TN 169 2.69 1.90 48.0
Concord NH 169 2.70 -1.11 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 169 2.71 0.20 48.0
Juneau AK 169 2.72 0.87 48.0
Montpelier VT 169 2.72 0.76 48.0
Hartford CT 169 2.75 0.78 48.0
Lincoln NE 169 2.75 1.44 48.0
Bismarck ND 169 2.76 -1.61 48.0
Jefferson City MO 169 2.79 2.33 48.0
Topeka KS 169 2.80 1.99 48.0
Des Moines IA 169 2.82 -0.62 48.0
Columbia SC 169 2.82 1.96 48.0
Pierre SD 169 2.86 -1.10 48.0
Salem OR 169 2.89 0.32 48.0
Atlanta GA 169 3.07 2.72 48.0
Tallahassee FL 169 3.10 1.62 48.0
Montgomery AL 169 3.14 1.77 48.0
Springfield IL 169 3.27 2.73 48.0
Santa Fe NM 169 3.47 -0.49 48.0
Cheyenne WY 169 3.60 0.16 48.0
Phoenix AZ 169 3.62 -1.66 48.0
Denver CO 169 3.66 0.85 48.0
Olympia WA 169 3.72 -1.13 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 169 3.73 -3.07 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Montgomery AL 86.0°F 95.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 16:00 AKDT Juneau AK 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 17:00 MST Phoenix AZ 109.0°F 111.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Little Rock AR 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 17:00 PDT Sacramento CA 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 18:00 MDT Denver CO 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 14:00 HST Honolulu HI 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 18:00 MDT Boise ID 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Springfield IL 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Des Moines IA 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Topeka KS 87.0°F 81.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Frankfort KY 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 93.0°F 76.0°F +17.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Augusta ME 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Lansing MI 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 79.0°F +14.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 18:00 MDT Helena MT 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Lincoln NE 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 17:00 PDT Carson City NV 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Concord NH 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Trenton NJ 71.0°F 76.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 18:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Albany NY 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Raleigh NC 79.0°F 69.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Bismarck ND 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Columbus OH 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 19:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 102.0°F 100.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 17:00 PDT Salem OR 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Providence RI 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-21 20:00 EDT Columbia SC 82.0°F 76.0°F +6.0° 48.0