Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.25 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.59 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.63 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.78 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.80 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.86 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 1.89 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 1.90 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 1.93 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 1.95 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 1.96 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 1.99 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.09 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.11 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.23 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.24 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.30 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.32 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.33 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.33 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.38 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.38 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.41 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.44 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.46 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.48 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.59 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.64 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.64 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.65 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.69 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.71 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.78 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.81 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.83 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.86 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.88 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.88 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.88 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.91 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 3.02 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 3.24 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.26 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 3.46 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.51 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.53 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.55 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.56 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.61 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.72 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 100.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |