Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.26 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.58 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 1.62 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 1.62 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.69 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 1.82 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 1.86 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.95 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.96 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 1.98 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 1.99 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.04 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.04 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.11 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.21 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.21 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.27 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.28 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.33 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.37 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.38 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.39 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.47 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.47 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.53 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.55 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.57 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.59 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.61 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.67 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.68 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.69 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.74 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.77 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.81 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.95 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 3.06 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.07 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.11 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 3.15 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.16 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 3.26 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.37 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.39 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 3.42 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.45 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.73 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 4.11 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 4.22 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 4.24 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 100.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 88.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |