Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.15 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.19 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 1.49 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 1.51 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.80 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 1.84 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 1.86 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.88 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.90 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.09 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.10 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.14 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.17 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.17 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.22 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.34 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.37 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.41 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.49 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.50 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.54 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.55 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.57 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.63 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.64 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.70 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.71 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.72 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.73 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.73 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.74 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.75 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.77 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.82 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.85 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.87 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.96 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.97 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.10 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 3.12 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.14 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.14 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.17 | -2.71 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.20 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.24 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.32 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.49 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 3.69 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 4.21 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 4.27 | -3.55 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 96.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |