Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.10 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.26 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.54 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 1.59 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.72 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.82 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 1.84 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 1.84 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.90 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.01 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.03 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.07 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.11 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.17 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.18 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.19 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.24 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.24 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.25 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.26 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.28 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.32 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.33 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.35 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.41 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.57 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.64 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.69 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.69 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.71 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.71 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.72 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.84 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.84 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.90 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.97 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.01 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 3.11 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.12 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.18 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 3.25 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 3.34 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.36 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.36 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 3.42 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.51 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.86 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 4.00 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 4.15 | 3.70 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 4.39 | 4.05 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 81.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 98.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 65.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |