Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.40 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.50 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 1.75 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 1.81 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 1.94 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.98 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.01 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.03 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.07 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.08 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.11 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.16 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.18 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.22 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.24 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.24 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.27 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.35 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.37 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.39 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.40 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.42 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.42 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.42 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.47 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.50 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.65 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.73 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.77 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.80 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.84 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.84 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.85 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 2.86 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.89 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.92 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.15 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 3.23 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.26 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 3.27 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.28 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.30 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 3.37 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.47 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 3.47 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.50 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.56 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.76 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 3.77 | -3.53 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 4.52 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 34.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 81.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 56.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |