Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.12 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.49 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 1.63 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.68 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 1.69 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 1.86 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.89 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.97 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.03 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.07 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.10 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.12 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.12 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.16 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.20 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.22 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.24 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.31 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.35 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.39 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.41 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.42 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.42 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.47 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.53 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.54 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.55 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.57 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.57 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.65 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.82 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.88 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.91 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.91 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.94 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.95 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.12 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.13 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.14 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.15 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.16 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.18 | -2.81 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.26 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.29 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.31 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.49 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.65 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 3.69 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.97 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.99 | -3.39 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 102.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 68.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |