Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 186 | 1.17 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 1.62 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.67 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 1.71 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.78 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.78 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.81 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 1.95 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 1.99 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.04 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.15 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.17 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.23 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.23 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.24 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.25 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.27 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.27 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.33 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.34 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.40 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.41 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.41 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.42 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.52 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.53 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.53 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.53 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.53 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.53 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.55 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.55 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.60 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.61 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.71 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.73 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.77 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.78 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.82 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.91 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.19 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.44 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.47 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.48 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.51 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.54 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.72 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.82 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.99 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 4.13 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 69.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 72.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 52.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 73.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 54.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |