Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.13 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.46 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 1.65 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.72 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 1.72 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 1.87 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 1.94 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.95 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.00 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.07 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.09 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.10 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.11 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.13 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.15 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.21 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.26 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.27 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.32 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.37 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.38 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.39 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.42 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.46 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.47 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.51 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.52 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.53 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 2.55 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.67 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.81 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.85 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.88 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 3.01 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.02 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.06 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.08 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.11 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.11 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.12 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.17 | -2.82 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 3.28 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.28 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.28 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.47 | 3.32 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.59 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 3.69 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.87 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.90 | -3.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 41.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |