Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
35825
1719648 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.65°
8542 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-13 01:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 170 0.99 0.48 48.0
Topeka KS 171 1.74 0.39 48.0
Providence RI 171 1.74 -0.70 48.0
Albany NY 171 1.85 -0.29 48.0
Tallahassee FL 171 1.94 -0.74 48.0
Boise ID 171 1.96 0.58 48.0
Juneau AK 171 1.97 -0.94 48.0
Augusta ME 171 2.13 -0.51 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 171 2.15 1.06 48.0
Trenton NJ 171 2.25 0.88 48.0
Lansing MI 171 2.26 -0.09 48.0
Richmond VA 170 2.28 0.68 48.0
Madison WI 170 2.28 -0.11 48.0
Salem OR 171 2.31 0.58 48.0
Honolulu HI 171 2.33 -2.33 48.0
Montpelier VT 170 2.35 1.48 48.0
Phoenix AZ 171 2.36 0.12 48.0
Concord NH 171 2.36 -1.45 48.0
Hartford CT 171 2.40 -0.23 48.0
Carson City NV 171 2.40 -0.75 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 170 2.41 -1.42 48.0
Boston MA 171 2.42 -1.01 48.0
Des Moines IA 171 2.44 -0.99 48.0
Little Rock AR 171 2.47 0.97 48.0
Springfield IL 171 2.54 1.47 48.0
Helena MT 171 2.58 0.66 48.0
Raleigh NC 171 2.63 0.15 48.0
Jackson MS 171 2.64 2.19 48.0
Dover DE 171 2.65 -0.19 48.0
Annapolis MD 171 2.65 1.47 48.0
Montgomery AL 171 2.73 -1.49 48.0
Denver CO 171 2.73 0.47 48.0
Atlanta GA 171 2.77 2.11 48.0
Saint Paul MN 171 2.78 -0.59 48.0
Columbia SC 171 2.78 1.09 48.0
Nashville TN 171 2.82 2.62 48.0
Jefferson City MO 171 2.86 2.39 48.0
Lincoln NE 171 2.88 0.73 48.0
Bismarck ND 171 2.94 -0.67 48.0
Harrisburg PA 171 3.01 1.80 48.0
Cheyenne WY 170 3.09 -0.63 48.0
Olympia WA 170 3.16 0.44 48.0
Santa Fe NM 171 3.19 -2.03 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 171 3.68 2.44 48.0
Columbus OH 171 3.70 2.43 48.0
Pierre SD 171 3.72 0.99 48.0
Indianapolis IN 171 3.96 0.33 48.0
Frankfort KY 171 3.99 3.38 48.0
Charleston WV 170 4.06 2.60 48.0
Sacramento CA 171 4.38 4.35 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Montgomery AL 84.0°F 89.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 18:00 AKDT Juneau AK 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 19:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Little Rock AR 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 19:00 PDT Sacramento CA 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 20:00 MDT Denver CO 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 76.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Atlanta GA 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 16:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 20:00 MDT Boise ID 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Springfield IL 82.0°F 76.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 78.0°F 69.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Des Moines IA 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Topeka KS 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Frankfort KY 81.0°F 69.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Boston MA 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Lansing MI 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Jackson MS 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 87.0°F 81.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 20:00 MDT Helena MT 74.0°F 69.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Lincoln NE 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 19:00 PDT Carson City NV 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Concord NH 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 20:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Albany NY 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Raleigh NC 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Bismarck ND 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Columbus OH 75.0°F 68.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 21:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 19:00 PDT Salem OR 75.0°F 80.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Providence RI 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-12 22:00 EDT Columbia SC 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0