Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
81683
3920832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.60°
8800 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-20 07:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 176 1.26 0.33 48.0
Indianapolis IN 176 1.59 -0.21 48.0
Richmond VA 176 1.59 -0.46 48.0
Tallahassee FL 176 1.66 -1.09 48.0
Little Rock AR 176 1.70 0.91 48.0
Charleston WV 176 1.83 0.82 48.0
Frankfort KY 176 1.90 0.03 48.0
Honolulu HI 176 1.93 -1.80 48.0
Jackson MS 176 1.93 0.71 48.0
Augusta ME 176 1.95 0.06 48.0
Columbia SC 176 1.95 -0.97 48.0
Trenton NJ 176 2.04 -0.88 48.0
Montgomery AL 176 2.05 0.19 48.0
Boston MA 176 2.09 -0.85 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 176 2.25 0.91 48.0
Annapolis MD 176 2.29 -1.23 48.0
Nashville TN 176 2.30 0.92 48.0
Columbus OH 176 2.35 0.98 48.0
Concord NH 176 2.39 -0.70 48.0
Providence RI 176 2.39 -1.58 48.0
Albany NY 176 2.41 -0.11 48.0
Dover DE 176 2.42 -1.76 48.0
Jefferson City MO 176 2.46 0.20 48.0
Sacramento CA 176 2.49 2.20 48.0
Boise ID 176 2.52 -1.47 48.0
Saint Paul MN 176 2.53 0.68 48.0
Harrisburg PA 176 2.55 -1.37 48.0
Atlanta GA 176 2.60 1.51 48.0
Helena MT 176 2.64 -0.32 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 176 2.68 1.18 48.0
Hartford CT 176 2.70 -0.33 48.0
Raleigh NC 176 2.70 -2.27 48.0
Cheyenne WY 176 2.76 -0.83 48.0
Santa Fe NM 176 2.77 1.53 48.0
Lansing MI 176 2.97 2.01 48.0
Des Moines IA 176 2.98 2.13 48.0
Salem OR 176 2.99 2.35 48.0
Bismarck ND 176 3.04 -0.57 48.0
Madison WI 176 3.08 2.42 48.0
Montpelier VT 176 3.13 0.70 48.0
Pierre SD 176 3.17 1.64 48.0
Juneau AK 176 3.34 1.22 48.0
Phoenix AZ 176 3.34 -0.23 48.0
Denver CO 176 3.43 -0.16 48.0
Carson City NV 176 3.43 0.41 48.0
Olympia WA 176 3.45 2.22 48.0
Springfield IL 176 3.66 2.57 48.0
Topeka KS 176 4.08 -0.49 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 176 4.14 -1.94 48.0
Lincoln NE 176 4.20 3.03 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 23:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 00:00 MST Phoenix AZ 80.0°F 88.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Little Rock AR 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 00:00 PDT Sacramento CA 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 01:00 MDT Denver CO 60.0°F 55.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Hartford CT 53.0°F 59.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Dover DE 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 21:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 01:00 MDT Boise ID 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Springfield IL 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Des Moines IA 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Topeka KS 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Augusta ME 45.0°F 45.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Annapolis MD 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Boston MA 53.0°F 56.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Jackson MS 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 01:00 MDT Helena MT 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Lincoln NE 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 00:00 PDT Carson City NV 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Concord NH 46.0°F 42.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Trenton NJ 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 01:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Albany NY 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Raleigh NC 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Bismarck ND 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Columbus OH 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 00:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 53.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Providence RI 51.0°F 57.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0