Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
44933
2156832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
9250 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-20 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 185 1.20 0.52 48.0
Jackson MS 185 1.32 0.63 48.0
Raleigh NC 185 1.37 0.33 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 1.56 0.60 48.0
Honolulu HI 185 1.69 -0.39 48.0
Richmond VA 185 1.72 -0.69 48.0
Lansing MI 185 1.83 -0.02 48.0
Providence RI 185 1.88 -0.12 48.0
Little Rock AR 185 1.94 -0.65 48.0
Dover DE 185 1.98 -0.25 48.0
Hartford CT 185 2.11 0.30 48.0
Augusta ME 185 2.11 -0.22 48.0
Albany NY 185 2.16 0.09 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 185 2.17 -0.07 48.0
Harrisburg PA 185 2.17 -0.06 48.0
Saint Paul MN 185 2.19 -0.27 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 2.24 0.50 48.0
Charleston WV 185 2.29 0.41 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 2.31 0.05 48.0
Trenton NJ 185 2.31 0.90 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.35 0.05 48.0
Madison WI 185 2.40 1.02 48.0
Boise ID 185 2.41 -0.99 48.0
Concord NH 185 2.41 -0.77 48.0
Columbus OH 185 2.42 0.86 48.0
Salem OR 185 2.42 0.79 48.0
Nashville TN 185 2.47 2.17 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 2.56 0.30 48.0
Carson City NV 185 2.62 -1.31 48.0
Helena MT 185 2.65 -0.46 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 2.71 -0.01 48.0
Pierre SD 185 2.76 -1.61 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.79 2.25 48.0
Lincoln NE 185 2.83 1.16 48.0
Columbia SC 185 2.86 2.37 48.0
Indianapolis IN 185 2.94 2.05 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 2.97 1.55 48.0
Topeka KS 185 2.98 2.00 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 3.02 2.52 48.0
Olympia WA 185 3.02 -0.46 48.0
Bismarck ND 185 3.08 -2.18 48.0
Jefferson City MO 185 3.22 2.72 48.0
Juneau AK 185 3.30 0.90 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 3.40 -1.98 48.0
Montgomery AL 185 3.43 1.76 48.0
Santa Fe NM 185 3.43 -1.08 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 3.50 -1.24 48.0
Denver CO 185 3.65 1.03 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 3.65 0.72 48.0
Springfield IL 185 3.70 3.24 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 89.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 90.0°F 97.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 MDT Denver CO 79.0°F 73.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Dover DE 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 MDT Boise ID 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Boston MA 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 MDT Helena MT 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Concord NH 78.0°F 83.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Albany NY 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 93.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 09:00 PDT Salem OR 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Providence RI 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 EDT Columbia SC 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 48.0