Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 1.57 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 1.68 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.68 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.77 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 1.78 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 1.82 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 1.87 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 1.88 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 1.88 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 1.96 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.97 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 1.98 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.02 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.02 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.02 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.06 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.07 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.08 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.12 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.14 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.14 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.15 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 2.15 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.16 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.21 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.28 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 2.36 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.38 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.41 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.44 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.46 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.64 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.64 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.69 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.72 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.79 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.81 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.82 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.88 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.88 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.89 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.90 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.90 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 3.01 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.05 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.09 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.14 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.21 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 3.79 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 3.98 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 109.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 73.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |