Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 192 | 0.94 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.62 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.62 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 1.65 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.71 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 1.73 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.91 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 1.94 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 1.97 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 1.99 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.09 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.11 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.11 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.15 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.20 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.28 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.30 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.30 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.30 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.38 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.43 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.47 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.47 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.51 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.52 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.53 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.55 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.59 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.61 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.68 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.72 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.72 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.76 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.82 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.87 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.89 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.90 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.91 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.92 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 3.09 | -2.44 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.19 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.30 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.39 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.51 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.55 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.57 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.57 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.64 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.74 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 4.17 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 85.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 100.0°F | 99.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 84.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 86.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |