Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
89633
4302432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.67°
9550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-26 22:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Albany NY 191 1.80 -0.68 48.0
Saint Paul MN 191 1.94 -0.08 48.0
Honolulu HI 191 1.95 -1.90 48.0
Little Rock AR 191 1.96 1.28 48.0
Des Moines IA 191 2.05 -0.51 48.0
Bismarck ND 191 2.10 0.48 48.0
Boston MA 191 2.15 -0.77 48.0
Richmond VA 191 2.16 -0.35 48.0
Lansing MI 191 2.19 0.77 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 191 2.23 -0.22 48.0
Austin TX 191 2.25 1.45 48.0
Helena MT 191 2.26 1.23 48.0
Boise ID 191 2.31 0.47 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 191 2.34 0.65 48.0
Jackson MS 191 2.36 1.62 48.0
Tallahassee FL 191 2.37 1.10 48.0
Trenton NJ 191 2.38 -0.85 48.0
Indianapolis IN 191 2.39 0.82 48.0
Atlanta GA 191 2.40 1.68 48.0
Providence RI 191 2.40 -1.75 48.0
Springfield IL 191 2.41 1.31 48.0
Madison WI 191 2.45 0.57 48.0
Columbus OH 191 2.49 1.30 48.0
Pierre SD 191 2.50 0.24 48.0
Jefferson City MO 191 2.54 0.20 48.0
Hartford CT 191 2.55 -1.45 48.0
Juneau AK 191 2.58 -0.61 48.0
Montgomery AL 191 2.59 1.73 48.0
Columbia SC 191 2.60 0.89 48.0
Topeka KS 191 2.69 -0.80 48.0
Annapolis MD 191 2.69 -0.03 48.0
Frankfort KY 191 2.73 0.79 48.0
Lincoln NE 191 2.74 -1.50 48.0
Sacramento CA 191 2.83 2.48 48.0
Dover DE 191 2.84 -0.55 48.0
Santa Fe NM 191 2.90 0.53 48.0
Augusta ME 191 2.99 -1.99 48.0
Charleston WV 191 3.01 1.86 48.0
Harrisburg PA 191 3.02 -1.14 48.0
Raleigh NC 191 3.05 0.54 48.0
Cheyenne WY 191 3.06 -0.27 48.0
Carson City NV 191 3.19 1.34 48.0
Olympia WA 191 3.27 2.22 48.0
Salem OR 191 3.43 1.78 48.0
Denver CO 191 3.50 2.05 48.0
Concord NH 191 3.50 -1.20 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 191 3.57 3.30 48.0
Nashville TN 191 3.85 2.92 48.0
Montpelier VT 191 3.92 2.43 48.0
Phoenix AZ 191 4.23 -0.73 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 88.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 14:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 47.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 MST Phoenix AZ 99.0°F 97.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 PDT Sacramento CA 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 MDT Denver CO 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Hartford CT 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Dover DE 68.0°F 59.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 85.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 12:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 MDT Boise ID 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Springfield IL 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Des Moines IA 63.0°F 67.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Topeka KS 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Augusta ME 59.0°F 68.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Annapolis MD 69.0°F 60.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Boston MA 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Lansing MI 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Jackson MS 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 MDT Helena MT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Lincoln NE 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 PDT Carson City NV 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Concord NH 58.0°F 61.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Trenton NJ 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 16:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Albany NY 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Bismarck ND 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Columbus OH 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 17:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 15:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 67.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 67.0°F 57.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Providence RI 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 18:00 EDT Columbia SC 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0