Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.61 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 1.71 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.72 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 1.75 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 1.85 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 1.86 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.90 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 1.94 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.01 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.04 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.07 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.08 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.09 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.15 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 2.16 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.17 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.19 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.20 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.21 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.25 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.26 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.29 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.32 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.33 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.35 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.35 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.37 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.42 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.46 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.61 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.61 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.63 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.66 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.69 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.72 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 2.78 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.79 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.79 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.84 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.86 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.87 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.88 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.98 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.06 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 3.12 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.25 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 3.34 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.38 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.38 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.40 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 83.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 81.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 87.0°F | 75.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 97.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 87.0°F | 79.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |