Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.64 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.74 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.84 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 1.85 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.03 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.06 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.06 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.07 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 2.09 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.11 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.14 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.18 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.19 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.21 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.23 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.24 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.37 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.40 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.43 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.47 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.47 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.47 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.48 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.51 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.61 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.65 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.67 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.69 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.72 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.72 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.76 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.77 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.77 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.79 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.80 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.82 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.85 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.89 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.96 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.96 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 3.08 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.12 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.16 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.18 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.22 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.36 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.39 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.57 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.88 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 4.27 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |