Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 184 | 1.68 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 1.70 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.74 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.88 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.99 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.06 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.16 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.18 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.18 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.20 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.26 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.30 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.33 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.36 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.39 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.40 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.40 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.46 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.46 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.48 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.49 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.53 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.55 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.57 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.57 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.61 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.66 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.67 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.68 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.69 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.72 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.74 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.83 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.86 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.90 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.90 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.90 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.92 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.97 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.03 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 3.09 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.09 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.14 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.15 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.39 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 3.49 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.51 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.74 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.87 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 49.0°F | 55.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 65.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |