Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.49 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.58 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.61 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 1.70 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 1.88 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.92 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 1.94 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.03 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.12 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.14 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.16 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.18 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.18 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.18 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.20 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.22 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.27 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.28 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.43 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.49 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.50 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.53 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.59 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.60 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.60 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.62 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.65 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.69 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.69 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.72 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.74 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.75 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.76 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.78 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.81 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.83 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.88 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.90 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.91 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.98 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.11 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.11 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.13 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 3.18 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.24 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 3.36 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.51 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 3.69 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.94 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.96 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 62.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 68.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |