Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.18 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.33 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.38 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 1.57 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.71 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.73 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 1.82 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.86 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 1.86 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.00 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.06 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.08 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.11 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.12 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.20 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.21 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.22 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.32 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.33 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.34 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.35 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.38 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.38 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.38 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.40 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.41 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.46 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.59 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.62 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.65 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.69 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.76 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.76 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.82 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.92 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.95 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.98 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.98 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.01 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 3.04 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.10 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 3.26 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 3.35 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.37 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.39 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 3.40 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.44 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.62 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.66 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.75 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 84.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |