Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.52 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.61 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.83 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.84 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 1.91 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 1.98 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.03 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.08 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.11 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.13 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.15 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.16 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.23 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.25 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.25 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.27 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.30 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.31 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.31 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.38 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.44 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.51 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.54 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.61 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.61 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.62 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.62 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.69 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.70 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.72 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.72 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.75 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.77 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.78 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.78 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.82 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.85 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.85 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.95 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.00 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.10 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.19 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 3.21 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.26 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.37 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.56 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 3.62 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.69 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 3.69 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.79 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |