Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 177 | 1.72 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 1.79 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 1.82 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.91 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.93 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.05 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.06 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.10 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.11 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.12 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.14 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.15 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.16 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.17 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.26 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.28 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.31 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.33 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.34 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.36 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.37 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.40 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.44 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.47 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.49 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.53 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.62 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.64 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.66 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.67 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.68 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.69 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.72 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.73 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 2.81 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.82 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.91 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.94 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.99 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.02 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.05 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 3.08 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.12 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.28 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 3.43 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.59 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.67 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 3.75 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.88 | 3.18 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.91 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 37.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |