Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.28 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.58 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.71 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.77 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 1.80 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 1.81 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.84 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 1.92 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 1.96 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 1.97 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 1.97 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.98 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.00 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.09 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.13 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.18 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.19 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.22 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.28 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.31 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.35 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.43 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.45 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.45 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.46 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.50 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.51 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.52 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.54 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.56 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.66 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.69 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.74 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.75 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.77 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.78 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.81 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.82 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.83 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.86 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.93 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.18 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.23 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.33 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 3.37 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.40 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.46 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.57 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.68 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.81 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 89.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 90.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 70.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 59.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |