Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.34 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.40 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.64 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 1.75 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 1.98 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 1.99 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.00 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.01 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.04 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.07 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.11 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.15 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.20 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.20 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.24 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.24 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.24 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.27 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.32 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.33 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.34 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.34 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.36 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.40 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.46 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.47 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.47 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.63 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.68 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.72 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.74 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.77 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.90 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.91 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 2.95 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.97 | -2.86 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.97 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.98 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.01 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.01 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 3.25 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.25 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.27 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 3.28 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.41 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.69 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.71 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.75 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 3.77 | -3.00 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 4.51 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 36.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 50.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 58.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 54.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |