Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.34 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.60 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.77 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.93 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.04 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.20 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.22 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.22 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.24 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.26 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.27 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.30 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.36 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.40 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.44 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.44 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.49 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.51 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.57 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.60 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.65 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.71 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.71 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.71 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.74 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.75 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.81 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.81 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.81 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.87 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.88 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.93 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.96 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.97 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.17 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 3.19 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.20 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.23 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 3.26 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.28 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 3.48 | -3.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.48 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.50 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.56 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.69 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.74 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.83 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 4.05 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 4.17 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 4.26 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 54.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 84.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 63.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 29.0°F | 34.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 55.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |