Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.12 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.28 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 1.50 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 1.56 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.70 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.80 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.85 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 1.86 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 1.97 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.00 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.09 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.13 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.19 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.25 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.26 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.35 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.35 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.42 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.43 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.54 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.57 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.60 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.61 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.62 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.63 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.63 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.64 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.68 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.70 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.71 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.76 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.82 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.83 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.86 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.86 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.02 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.06 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 3.12 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.19 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.20 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.21 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.23 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.25 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.46 | -3.23 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.46 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 3.56 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.83 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 4.18 | -3.82 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 61.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 80.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 90.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 58.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 67.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |