Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.30 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.31 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.51 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 1.59 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.75 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.82 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.86 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 1.87 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 1.92 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 1.93 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.01 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.06 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.13 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.16 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.19 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.25 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.33 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.36 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.39 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.42 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.43 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.44 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.44 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.46 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.46 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.57 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.58 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.65 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.66 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.73 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.75 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.81 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.85 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.87 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.96 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.97 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.98 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.00 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.02 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 3.12 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 3.21 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.42 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.43 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.52 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.53 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.54 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.64 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.69 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.74 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 104.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 58.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 80.0°F | 90.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |