Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.78 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.79 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.80 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 1.89 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 1.92 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 1.95 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.06 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.08 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.13 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.14 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.21 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.24 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.27 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.28 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.29 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.33 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.36 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.44 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.44 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.47 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.56 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.56 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.59 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.59 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.59 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.60 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.60 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.64 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.64 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.67 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.70 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.72 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.75 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.75 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.78 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.79 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.80 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.80 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.83 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.89 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.93 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.95 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.12 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.38 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.48 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.54 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.62 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.85 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.99 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 96.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 109.0°F | 113.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 87.0°F | 65.0°F | +22.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 93.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |