Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.51 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.56 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 1.74 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.76 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 1.86 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.92 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 1.94 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.05 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.10 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.12 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.14 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.16 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.21 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.21 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.22 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.23 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.28 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.37 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.45 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.46 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.52 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.55 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.56 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.59 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.60 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.63 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.65 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.67 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.71 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.71 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.72 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.72 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.77 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.80 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.81 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.82 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.83 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.86 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.92 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.05 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 3.11 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.11 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.22 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.23 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.37 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 3.45 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.48 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 3.60 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.85 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.88 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |