Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.61 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 1.70 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 1.73 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.73 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 1.78 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 1.81 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 1.85 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 1.90 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 1.97 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 1.97 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 1.97 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.02 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.03 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.03 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.04 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.09 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.12 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.13 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.15 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.17 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 2.24 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.26 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.30 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.30 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.34 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.34 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.37 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.39 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.41 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.42 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.43 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.46 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.65 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.68 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.70 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.76 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.82 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.82 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.83 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.87 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.87 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.88 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.92 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.99 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.08 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.13 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.15 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 3.28 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 3.29 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.43 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 73.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 79.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 70.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 98.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |