Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.40 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 1.51 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 1.63 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 1.68 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.77 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 1.83 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.93 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.96 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 1.99 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.02 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.02 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.05 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.11 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.13 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.16 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.18 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.21 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.24 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.28 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.29 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.29 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.29 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.32 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.40 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.45 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.45 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.46 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.49 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.62 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.68 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.69 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 2.72 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.76 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.77 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.78 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.81 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.84 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.84 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.90 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 2.97 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.06 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.12 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.14 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.18 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.24 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 3.33 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.38 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.48 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.56 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 4.25 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 93.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |