Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
38183
1832832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.57°
8500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-15 01:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 170 1.14 0.50 48.0
Jackson MS 170 1.45 0.78 48.0
Providence RI 170 1.57 0.16 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 170 1.70 0.08 48.0
Salem OR 170 1.78 0.05 48.0
Albany NY 170 1.88 -0.22 48.0
Concord NH 170 1.91 -0.64 48.0
Hartford CT 170 1.94 0.87 48.0
Madison WI 170 1.99 0.48 48.0
Honolulu HI 170 2.03 -1.99 48.0
Augusta ME 170 2.04 0.40 48.0
Boston MA 170 2.05 -0.56 48.0
Lansing MI 170 2.06 0.21 48.0
Boise ID 170 2.16 0.71 48.0
Raleigh NC 170 2.16 0.54 48.0
Little Rock AR 170 2.18 0.22 48.0
Topeka KS 170 2.18 0.83 48.0
Tallahassee FL 170 2.21 -0.15 48.0
Trenton NJ 170 2.24 0.90 48.0
Richmond VA 170 2.29 0.54 48.0
Helena MT 170 2.32 0.62 48.0
Phoenix AZ 170 2.35 0.12 48.0
Des Moines IA 170 2.36 -0.38 48.0
Atlanta GA 170 2.49 1.65 48.0
Jefferson City MO 170 2.49 2.01 48.0
Dover DE 170 2.52 0.34 48.0
Carson City NV 170 2.55 -0.76 48.0
Nashville TN 170 2.56 2.23 48.0
Montpelier VT 170 2.56 1.46 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 170 2.60 -0.75 48.0
Harrisburg PA 170 2.71 0.73 48.0
Denver CO 170 2.72 0.58 48.0
Columbia SC 170 2.78 1.54 48.0
Lincoln NE 170 2.79 0.89 48.0
Olympia WA 170 2.79 -0.21 48.0
Saint Paul MN 170 2.81 -0.91 48.0
Juneau AK 170 2.89 -0.68 48.0
Annapolis MD 170 2.90 1.18 48.0
Santa Fe NM 170 2.91 -1.98 48.0
Springfield IL 170 2.92 1.86 48.0
Montgomery AL 170 3.01 -0.98 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 170 3.08 1.36 48.0
Bismarck ND 170 3.11 -1.26 48.0
Cheyenne WY 170 3.17 0.38 48.0
Pierre SD 170 3.32 0.62 48.0
Columbus OH 170 4.05 2.88 48.0
Sacramento CA 170 4.13 3.99 48.0
Frankfort KY 170 4.18 3.66 48.0
Charleston WV 170 4.22 2.40 48.0
Indianapolis IN 170 4.44 1.57 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 78.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 17:00 AKDT Juneau AK 74.0°F 84.0°F -10.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 18:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 97.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Little Rock AR 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 18:00 PDT Sacramento CA 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 19:00 MDT Denver CO 74.0°F 64.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 85.0°F 75.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Atlanta GA 87.0°F 79.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 19:00 MDT Boise ID 83.0°F 87.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Springfield IL 87.0°F 80.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Des Moines IA 81.0°F 75.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Topeka KS 91.0°F 85.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Frankfort KY 85.0°F 80.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Augusta ME 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Boston MA 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Lansing MI 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 73.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 19:00 MDT Helena MT 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Lincoln NE 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 18:00 PDT Carson City NV 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Concord NH 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Trenton NJ 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 19:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 79.0°F 85.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Albany NY 70.0°F 63.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Raleigh NC 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Bismarck ND 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Columbus OH 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 20:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 18:00 PDT Salem OR 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Providence RI 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 EDT Columbia SC 90.0°F 81.0°F +9.0° 48.0