Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.41 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.48 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 1.59 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.60 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 1.86 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.89 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 1.95 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.97 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.07 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.10 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.10 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.13 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.17 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.18 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.18 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.19 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.25 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.34 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.39 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.52 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.54 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.55 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.56 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.59 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.61 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.64 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.68 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.68 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.71 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.72 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.74 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.77 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.81 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.83 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.84 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.85 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.90 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.91 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.92 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.92 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.97 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 3.07 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 3.10 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.13 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 3.21 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.28 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.66 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 3.76 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.95 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.98 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |