Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
77433
3716832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
9350 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-16 18:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 187 1.54 0.68 48.0
Richmond VA 187 1.59 -0.11 48.0
Trenton NJ 187 1.68 -0.60 48.0
Indianapolis IN 187 1.89 -0.28 48.0
Albany NY 187 1.90 -0.06 48.0
Honolulu HI 187 1.95 -1.44 48.0
Charleston WV 187 2.01 1.14 48.0
Salem OR 187 2.03 -0.21 48.0
Providence RI 187 2.03 -1.03 48.0
Columbia SC 187 2.17 -0.97 48.0
Raleigh NC 187 2.20 -1.51 48.0
Sacramento CA 187 2.21 0.94 48.0
Little Rock AR 187 2.22 0.78 48.0
Annapolis MD 187 2.24 -1.12 48.0
Jackson MS 187 2.25 0.82 48.0
Columbus OH 187 2.26 0.40 48.0
Boston MA 187 2.28 -0.16 48.0
Nashville TN 187 2.29 -0.18 48.0
Hartford CT 187 2.31 0.24 48.0
Frankfort KY 187 2.31 -0.25 48.0
Phoenix AZ 187 2.33 -1.45 48.0
Augusta ME 187 2.34 0.84 48.0
Saint Paul MN 187 2.34 -0.87 48.0
Concord NH 187 2.36 0.46 48.0
Montgomery AL 187 2.39 -0.28 48.0
Boise ID 187 2.40 -1.80 48.0
Dover DE 187 2.42 -1.52 48.0
Jefferson City MO 187 2.44 0.39 48.0
Harrisburg PA 187 2.45 -1.67 48.0
Lansing MI 187 2.48 0.70 48.0
Tallahassee FL 187 2.57 0.24 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 187 2.58 0.67 48.0
Des Moines IA 187 2.60 1.81 48.0
Pierre SD 187 2.60 1.11 48.0
Madison WI 187 2.62 0.39 48.0
Bismarck ND 187 2.64 -0.38 48.0
Atlanta GA 187 2.66 1.18 48.0
Cheyenne WY 187 2.78 0.42 48.0
Helena MT 187 2.82 -0.50 48.0
Olympia WA 187 2.82 1.40 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 187 2.83 0.41 48.0
Santa Fe NM 187 2.88 -0.43 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 187 2.96 -0.55 48.0
Montpelier VT 187 3.69 1.79 48.0
Carson City NV 187 3.73 -0.30 48.0
Springfield IL 187 3.75 2.51 48.0
Denver CO 187 3.86 0.89 48.0
Topeka KS 187 4.15 1.87 48.0
Lincoln NE 187 4.15 3.16 48.0
Juneau AK 187 4.99 2.30 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 10:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 11:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Little Rock AR 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 11:00 PDT Sacramento CA 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 12:00 MDT Denver CO 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Dover DE 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Atlanta GA 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 08:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 12:00 MDT Boise ID 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Springfield IL 90.0°F 83.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Des Moines IA 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Topeka KS 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Frankfort KY 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Augusta ME 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Boston MA 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 67.0°F 73.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 12:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Lincoln NE 70.0°F 64.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 11:00 PDT Carson City NV 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Concord NH 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Trenton NJ 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 12:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 72.0°F 62.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Albany NY 77.0°F 71.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Raleigh NC 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Bismarck ND 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Columbus OH 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 94.0°F 99.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 11:00 PDT Salem OR 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Providence RI 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 EDT Columbia SC 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0