Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.54 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.71 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.85 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.86 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 1.89 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.90 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 1.90 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 1.91 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.91 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 1.95 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 1.96 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.03 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.11 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.12 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.19 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.24 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.29 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.30 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.31 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.32 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.34 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.35 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.36 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.39 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.47 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.49 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.50 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.51 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.54 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.61 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.64 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.68 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.70 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.75 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.76 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.79 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.81 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.83 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.91 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.95 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.00 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.02 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.04 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.04 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 3.09 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.32 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.50 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 3.54 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.78 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.92 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |