Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.52 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.57 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.85 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 1.95 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 1.99 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.00 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.01 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 2.05 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.09 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.11 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.14 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.15 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.16 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.17 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.28 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.28 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.29 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.30 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.32 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.36 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.36 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.36 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.38 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.39 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.42 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.45 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.45 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.55 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.56 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.58 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.72 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.72 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.75 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.79 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.80 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.81 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.91 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.91 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.94 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.01 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.04 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.08 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.31 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.39 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.44 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.45 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.45 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.85 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 4.26 | 3.38 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 4.89 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 97.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 96.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 96.0°F | 89.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 63.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 88.0°F | 80.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |