Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
54233
2603232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.46°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-28 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Saint Paul MN 179 1.74 -0.24 48.0
Lansing MI 179 1.76 0.79 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 1.77 0.07 48.0
Richmond VA 179 1.78 -0.07 48.0
Columbus OH 179 1.90 -1.56 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 1.99 0.95 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 2.03 0.63 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.03 1.04 48.0
Pierre SD 179 2.04 1.10 48.0
Charleston WV 179 2.04 1.06 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.07 1.15 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.07 0.66 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 2.07 1.18 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 2.14 0.33 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.18 0.45 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 2.20 1.13 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 2.23 -1.65 48.0
Providence RI 179 2.23 0.27 48.0
Nashville TN 179 2.25 0.42 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 2.27 -2.07 48.0
Austin TX 179 2.27 1.80 48.0
Augusta ME 179 2.28 -1.66 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 2.29 0.80 48.0
Albany NY 179 2.30 -0.72 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 2.31 0.41 48.0
Juneau AK 179 2.32 1.35 48.0
Topeka KS 179 2.32 1.09 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.35 -0.42 48.0
Salem OR 179 2.44 0.28 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 2.44 1.44 48.0
Concord NH 179 2.47 -0.66 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 2.52 0.71 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 2.62 -1.49 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.66 -0.89 48.0
Carson City NV 179 2.66 -1.72 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 2.78 -0.39 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.86 0.20 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 2.87 -1.21 48.0
Boise ID 179 2.87 -2.09 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 2.87 -0.32 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 2.87 -0.33 48.0
Denver CO 179 2.94 0.83 48.0
Springfield IL 179 2.96 2.26 48.0
Helena MT 179 3.03 -0.26 48.0
Jackson MS 179 3.09 1.72 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 3.13 0.80 48.0
Olympia WA 179 3.20 -1.65 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 3.23 -0.25 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 3.66 2.84 48.0
Little Rock AR 179 3.84 0.83 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 44.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 97.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 04:00 MDT Denver CO 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Dover DE 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 04:00 MDT Boise ID 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 64.0°F 59.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 77.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 58.0°F 53.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 04:00 MDT Helena MT 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Concord NH 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Albany NY 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0