Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.02 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.66 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 1.73 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 1.77 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 1.83 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 1.90 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 1.95 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.99 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.05 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.09 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.11 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.12 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 2.14 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.18 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.20 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.21 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.24 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.26 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.26 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.38 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.40 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.42 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.43 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.43 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.47 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.49 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.50 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.51 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.52 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.53 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 2.53 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.55 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.56 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.56 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.61 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.78 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.80 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.86 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.90 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.94 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.96 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 3.03 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.06 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.56 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.67 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 3.95 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 4.01 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 4.06 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 4.07 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 4.33 | 4.32 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |