Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 189 | 0.98 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 1.77 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 1.81 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 1.93 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.93 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.05 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.14 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.15 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.17 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.17 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.19 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 2.20 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.20 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.21 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.30 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.32 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.34 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.36 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.37 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.38 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.39 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.39 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.42 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.48 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.50 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.52 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.61 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.61 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.61 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.62 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.62 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.66 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.66 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.67 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.71 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.88 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.89 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.91 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.95 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.99 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.02 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.03 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.04 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.51 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.52 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 3.78 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 3.94 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 3.99 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 4.02 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 4.27 | 4.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 102.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 81.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 84.0°F | 76.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 80.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 104.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |