Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.50 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.53 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.62 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.72 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.79 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 1.85 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 1.87 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 1.95 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.96 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.97 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.98 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.00 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.03 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.12 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.16 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.18 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.19 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.25 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.27 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.31 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.34 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.35 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.36 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.38 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.48 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.49 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.55 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.58 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.59 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.60 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.62 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.64 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.65 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.66 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.79 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.84 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.85 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.90 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.91 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.95 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.97 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.97 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.97 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.05 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 3.21 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.37 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.55 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 3.62 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.87 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.95 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |