Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.35 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.40 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 1.54 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 1.59 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 1.60 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 1.71 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.72 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.76 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 1.81 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.95 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.03 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.03 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.08 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.15 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.25 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.37 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.38 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.38 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.40 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.41 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.46 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.46 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.54 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.59 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.62 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.62 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.63 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.68 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.69 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.81 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.85 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.89 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.92 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.93 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.99 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.99 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 2.99 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 3.02 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.04 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.08 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.10 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 3.12 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.12 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.25 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.26 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 3.33 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.63 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.63 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.76 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.83 | -3.03 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 101.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 101.0°F | 101.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 62.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 87.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 87.0°F | 72.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 101.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 58.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |