Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
36933
1772832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-14 00:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 169 1.02 0.37 48.0
Providence RI 169 1.67 -0.22 48.0
Topeka KS 169 1.73 0.44 48.0
Salem OR 169 1.74 0.04 48.0
Albany NY 169 1.83 -0.37 48.0
Boise ID 169 1.91 0.86 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 169 1.91 0.35 48.0
Jackson MS 169 2.05 1.53 48.0
Hartford CT 169 2.08 0.31 48.0
Lansing MI 169 2.14 0.01 48.0
Tallahassee FL 169 2.15 -0.45 48.0
Honolulu HI 169 2.16 -2.14 48.0
Augusta ME 169 2.16 0.05 48.0
Des Moines IA 169 2.20 -0.85 48.0
Richmond VA 169 2.23 0.70 48.0
Concord NH 169 2.24 -1.14 48.0
Boston MA 169 2.25 -0.76 48.0
Raleigh NC 169 2.28 0.69 48.0
Juneau AK 169 2.30 -0.64 48.0
Madison WI 169 2.30 0.04 48.0
Helena MT 169 2.38 0.99 48.0
Phoenix AZ 169 2.42 0.35 48.0
Columbia SC 169 2.43 1.17 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 169 2.43 -1.15 48.0
Little Rock AR 169 2.44 0.63 48.0
Trenton NJ 169 2.45 0.82 48.0
Carson City NV 169 2.48 -0.81 48.0
Montpelier VT 169 2.50 1.61 48.0
Jefferson City MO 169 2.51 2.11 48.0
Dover DE 169 2.54 0.19 48.0
Springfield IL 169 2.54 1.46 48.0
Montgomery AL 169 2.57 -1.43 48.0
Lincoln NE 169 2.58 0.58 48.0
Nashville TN 169 2.59 2.31 48.0
Atlanta GA 169 2.62 1.91 48.0
Denver CO 169 2.76 0.54 48.0
Santa Fe NM 169 2.78 -1.67 48.0
Annapolis MD 169 2.81 1.50 48.0
Bismarck ND 169 2.91 -0.72 48.0
Olympia WA 169 2.92 -0.06 48.0
Harrisburg PA 169 2.94 1.59 48.0
Cheyenne WY 169 3.07 -0.05 48.0
Saint Paul MN 169 3.09 -0.66 48.0
Pierre SD 169 3.61 1.29 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 169 3.72 2.12 48.0
Frankfort KY 169 3.98 3.36 48.0
Columbus OH 169 4.12 2.77 48.0
Charleston WV 169 4.13 2.62 48.0
Indianapolis IN 169 4.17 0.87 48.0
Sacramento CA 169 4.38 4.37 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Montgomery AL 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 16:00 AKDT Juneau AK 73.0°F 78.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 17:00 MST Phoenix AZ 97.0°F 99.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Little Rock AR 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 17:00 PDT Sacramento CA 82.0°F 75.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 18:00 MDT Denver CO 76.0°F 70.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Hartford CT 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Dover DE 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Atlanta GA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 14:00 HST Honolulu HI 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 18:00 MDT Boise ID 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Springfield IL 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Des Moines IA 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Topeka KS 94.0°F 95.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Frankfort KY 86.0°F 74.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Annapolis MD 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Boston MA 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Lansing MI 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Jackson MS 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 18:00 MDT Helena MT 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Lincoln NE 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 17:00 PDT Carson City NV 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Concord NH 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Trenton NJ 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 18:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 80.0°F 86.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Albany NY 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Raleigh NC 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Bismarck ND 73.0°F 80.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 19:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 100.0°F 102.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 17:00 PDT Salem OR 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Providence RI 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 20:00 EDT Columbia SC 93.0°F 78.0°F +15.0° 48.0