Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.36 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.42 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 1.52 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 1.56 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 1.59 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 1.71 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.72 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.78 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 1.78 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.89 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 1.99 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.03 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.12 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.17 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.28 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.34 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.40 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.40 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.41 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.44 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.48 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.49 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.50 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.62 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.63 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.64 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.65 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.68 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.70 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.77 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.88 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.91 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.94 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.95 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.97 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.01 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 3.01 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.03 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 3.05 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.06 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 3.06 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.09 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.11 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 3.17 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.26 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 3.34 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.51 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.67 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.68 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.76 | -2.95 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |