Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.60 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.76 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.81 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 1.94 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.01 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.03 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.03 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.12 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.12 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 2.13 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.13 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.14 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.15 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.16 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.18 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.26 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.34 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.37 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.39 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.43 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.51 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.52 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.55 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.59 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.60 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.63 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.65 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.72 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.73 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.74 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.74 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.75 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.78 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.78 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.82 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.82 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.82 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.85 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.91 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 3.09 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 3.14 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.14 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.18 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.27 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.27 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.28 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.52 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.65 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.98 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 4.22 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 83.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 61.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |