Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.20 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 1.42 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.69 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 1.79 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 1.80 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 1.85 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 1.85 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.91 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 1.92 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.08 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.09 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.13 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.16 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.23 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.25 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.27 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.28 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.28 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.32 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.34 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.39 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.42 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.42 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.44 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.44 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.44 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.46 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.47 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.49 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.50 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.50 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.60 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.60 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 2.65 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.68 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.69 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.70 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.77 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.79 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.89 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.17 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.18 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.29 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.54 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 3.62 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.69 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.70 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.70 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 4.03 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 4.03 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 51.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 52.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 38.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |