Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
59333
2848032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.46°
9250 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-01 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 185 1.52 -0.48 48.0
Indianapolis IN 185 1.70 -0.80 48.0
Providence RI 185 1.80 -0.41 48.0
Columbus OH 185 1.81 -0.96 48.0
Salem OR 185 1.82 0.25 48.0
Topeka KS 185 1.85 -0.29 48.0
Hartford CT 185 1.88 -0.45 48.0
Jackson MS 185 1.90 0.30 48.0
Columbia SC 185 2.01 -0.14 48.0
Raleigh NC 185 2.02 0.41 48.0
Nashville TN 185 2.02 0.97 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.03 -0.42 48.0
Concord NH 185 2.06 0.16 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 2.08 1.40 48.0
Saint Paul MN 185 2.16 0.57 48.0
Jefferson City MO 185 2.16 1.29 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 2.17 0.61 48.0
Honolulu HI 185 2.18 -2.09 48.0
Charleston WV 185 2.20 1.82 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 2.22 1.78 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 2.26 1.64 48.0
Juneau AK 185 2.32 1.46 48.0
Bismarck ND 185 2.34 -0.32 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 2.36 -0.69 48.0
Lansing MI 185 2.37 1.29 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.43 0.54 48.0
Albany NY 185 2.51 0.53 48.0
Springfield IL 185 2.52 1.88 48.0
Pierre SD 185 2.52 1.55 48.0
Augusta ME 185 2.56 0.49 48.0
Dover DE 185 2.57 -0.05 48.0
Trenton NJ 185 2.57 1.96 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 2.59 1.44 48.0
Little Rock AR 185 2.60 0.83 48.0
Austin TX 185 2.61 2.05 48.0
Madison WI 185 2.71 1.02 48.0
Helena MT 185 2.79 -0.42 48.0
Montgomery AL 185 2.80 -1.73 48.0
Carson City NV 185 2.82 -0.19 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 2.91 -0.04 48.0
Olympia WA 185 2.93 -0.81 48.0
Boise ID 185 3.03 -2.12 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 3.10 -0.17 48.0
Lincoln NE 185 3.14 2.08 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 3.15 0.54 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 3.21 -1.36 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 185 3.25 0.15 48.0
Harrisburg PA 185 3.45 -0.69 48.0
Santa Fe NM 185 3.50 -1.64 48.0
Denver CO 185 3.52 2.09 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 MDT Denver CO 71.0°F 65.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Dover DE 89.0°F 85.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 MDT Boise ID 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 91.0°F 86.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 MDT Helena MT 63.0°F 57.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 62.0°F 70.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Concord NH 70.0°F 64.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 72.0°F 65.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Albany NY 75.0°F 69.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 09:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Providence RI 72.0°F 62.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 EDT Columbia SC 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0