Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.56 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.66 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 1.80 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 1.81 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.82 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.87 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 1.88 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.89 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.92 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.99 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.02 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.06 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.11 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.24 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.26 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.29 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.30 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.32 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.34 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.36 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.36 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.39 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.46 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.46 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.49 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.52 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.63 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.64 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.69 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.81 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.82 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.83 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.85 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.85 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.87 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.87 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.90 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.90 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.96 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.96 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 3.09 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.21 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.23 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.35 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.41 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.41 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.44 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.44 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.73 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.80 | 3.25 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 68.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 102.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 83.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 70.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |