Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.54 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.81 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.83 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.90 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 1.93 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 1.97 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 1.98 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.99 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.09 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.19 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.21 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.25 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.26 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.28 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.29 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.32 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.36 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.39 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.40 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.43 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.45 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.54 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.56 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.56 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.57 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.61 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.62 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.66 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.69 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.71 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.72 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.72 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.73 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.74 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.81 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.83 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.87 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.90 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.92 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.94 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.96 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.99 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 3.13 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.25 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.40 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.55 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.61 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.62 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.66 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.77 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 72.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |