Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
54983
2639232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.41°
8500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-29 01:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Des Moines IA 170 1.57 0.51 48.0
Lansing MI 170 1.68 0.74 48.0
Columbus OH 170 1.68 -1.24 48.0
Richmond VA 170 1.77 -0.56 48.0
Providence RI 170 1.78 -0.59 48.0
Saint Paul MN 170 1.82 -0.03 48.0
Pierre SD 170 1.87 0.82 48.0
Charleston WV 170 1.88 0.95 48.0
Madison WI 170 1.88 0.75 48.0
Sacramento CA 170 1.96 0.48 48.0
Trenton NJ 170 1.97 0.91 48.0
Augusta ME 170 1.98 -1.36 48.0
Hartford CT 170 2.02 -1.07 48.0
Atlanta GA 170 2.02 0.73 48.0
Annapolis MD 170 2.02 0.37 48.0
Salem OR 170 2.06 0.37 48.0
Boston MA 170 2.07 0.04 48.0
Frankfort KY 170 2.08 1.31 48.0
Lincoln NE 170 2.12 0.50 48.0
Indianapolis IN 170 2.14 -1.52 48.0
Jefferson City MO 170 2.14 1.21 48.0
Tallahassee FL 170 2.15 0.21 48.0
Nashville TN 170 2.15 0.71 48.0
Albany NY 170 2.16 -1.02 48.0
Topeka KS 170 2.21 1.08 48.0
Harrisburg PA 170 2.28 0.04 48.0
Honolulu HI 170 2.36 -2.34 48.0
Concord NH 170 2.38 -0.66 48.0
Montpelier VT 170 2.41 1.16 48.0
Raleigh NC 170 2.44 0.66 48.0
Austin TX 170 2.46 1.98 48.0
Juneau AK 170 2.64 1.32 48.0
Phoenix AZ 170 2.64 -1.54 48.0
Columbia SC 170 2.69 0.06 48.0
Dover DE 170 2.72 -1.15 48.0
Cheyenne WY 170 2.79 -0.24 48.0
Bismarck ND 170 2.81 -0.48 48.0
Olympia WA 170 2.82 -1.26 48.0
Springfield IL 170 2.88 2.09 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 170 2.88 0.25 48.0
Santa Fe NM 170 2.89 -0.42 48.0
Montgomery AL 170 2.90 -1.31 48.0
Jackson MS 170 2.90 1.55 48.0
Boise ID 170 3.01 -2.36 48.0
Denver CO 170 3.05 1.11 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 170 3.09 0.29 48.0
Helena MT 170 3.14 0.20 48.0
Carson City NV 170 3.21 -1.45 48.0
Little Rock AR 170 3.79 1.18 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 170 3.98 2.29 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 17:00 AKDT Juneau AK 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 18:00 MST Phoenix AZ 109.0°F 109.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 18:00 PDT Sacramento CA 84.0°F 73.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 19:00 MDT Denver CO 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Hartford CT 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Dover DE 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Atlanta GA 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 15:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 19:00 MDT Boise ID 79.0°F 84.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Springfield IL 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Frankfort KY 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Augusta ME 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Boston MA 75.0°F 81.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Lansing MI 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Jackson MS 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 19:00 MDT Helena MT 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Lincoln NE 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 18:00 PDT Carson City NV 73.0°F 66.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Concord NH 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Trenton NJ 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 19:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 80.0°F 85.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Albany NY 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Raleigh NC 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Bismarck ND 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Columbus OH 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 20:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 18:00 PDT Salem OR 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Providence RI 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 21:00 EDT Columbia SC 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0