Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
49333
2368032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.54°
8850 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-24 08:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Juneau AK 177 1.56 0.41 48.0
Austin TX 177 1.66 1.25 48.0
Honolulu HI 177 1.86 -0.93 48.0
Raleigh NC 177 1.86 0.78 48.0
Jackson MS 177 1.87 0.86 48.0
Richmond VA 177 1.87 0.05 48.0
Saint Paul MN 177 1.92 -0.19 48.0
Charleston WV 177 1.93 0.25 48.0
Frankfort KY 177 1.94 0.73 48.0
Boise ID 177 1.99 -0.81 48.0
Annapolis MD 177 1.99 1.09 48.0
Lansing MI 177 2.07 0.64 48.0
Indianapolis IN 177 2.14 -1.07 48.0
Columbus OH 177 2.15 -1.40 48.0
Dover DE 177 2.19 -0.20 48.0
Des Moines IA 177 2.28 -1.64 48.0
Sacramento CA 177 2.29 0.20 48.0
Nashville TN 177 2.32 1.11 48.0
Albany NY 177 2.33 -0.01 48.0
Providence RI 177 2.34 0.91 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 177 2.36 2.16 48.0
Springfield IL 177 2.38 1.76 48.0
Trenton NJ 177 2.40 1.43 48.0
Harrisburg PA 177 2.40 1.44 48.0
Jefferson City MO 177 2.41 2.09 48.0
Augusta ME 177 2.42 -1.67 48.0
Madison WI 177 2.54 1.66 48.0
Boston MA 177 2.55 1.29 48.0
Columbia SC 177 2.56 0.93 48.0
Salem OR 177 2.58 -0.31 48.0
Atlanta GA 177 2.69 2.18 48.0
Tallahassee FL 177 2.73 1.31 48.0
Pierre SD 177 2.73 -0.33 48.0
Montgomery AL 177 2.76 -0.18 48.0
Hartford CT 177 2.80 0.58 48.0
Lincoln NE 177 2.80 1.36 48.0
Topeka KS 177 2.85 2.29 48.0
Montpelier VT 177 2.86 0.70 48.0
Little Rock AR 177 2.94 -1.07 48.0
Helena MT 177 2.94 -1.10 48.0
Carson City NV 177 3.04 -2.28 48.0
Santa Fe NM 177 3.05 0.55 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 177 3.08 0.85 48.0
Bismarck ND 177 3.10 -1.46 48.0
Concord NH 177 3.12 -1.50 48.0
Phoenix AZ 177 3.37 -1.22 48.0
Denver CO 177 3.53 0.19 48.0
Cheyenne WY 177 3.57 0.52 48.0
Olympia WA 177 3.86 -1.79 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 177 3.93 -1.59 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 00:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 MST Phoenix AZ 93.0°F 88.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 PDT Sacramento CA 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 MDT Denver CO 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Hartford CT 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Dover DE 64.0°F 69.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Atlanta GA 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 22:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 MDT Boise ID 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Springfield IL 63.0°F 57.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Des Moines IA 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Topeka KS 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Frankfort KY 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Augusta ME 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Annapolis MD 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Lansing MI 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Jackson MS 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 67.0°F 58.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 MDT Helena MT 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Lincoln NE 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 PDT Carson City NV 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Concord NH 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Trenton NJ 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 02:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Albany NY 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Raleigh NC 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Bismarck ND 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Columbus OH 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 03:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 01:00 PDT Salem OR 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Providence RI 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 04:00 EDT Columbia SC 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0