Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
84883
4074432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.55°
9600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-22 23:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 192 1.51 0.80 48.0
Little Rock AR 192 1.55 0.69 48.0
Jackson MS 192 1.67 0.61 48.0
Boise ID 192 1.82 -0.63 48.0
Honolulu HI 192 1.83 -1.77 48.0
Richmond VA 192 1.86 -0.59 48.0
Augusta ME 192 1.89 -0.59 48.0
Boston MA 192 2.03 -1.46 48.0
Montgomery AL 192 2.05 0.78 48.0
Trenton NJ 192 2.05 -1.09 48.0
Indianapolis IN 192 2.07 0.19 48.0
Tallahassee FL 192 2.09 -0.20 48.0
Columbia SC 192 2.14 -1.04 48.0
Des Moines IA 192 2.15 1.05 48.0
Jefferson City MO 192 2.15 -0.55 48.0
Albany NY 192 2.24 -0.50 48.0
Juneau AK 192 2.27 -0.30 48.0
Helena MT 192 2.29 0.79 48.0
Frankfort KY 192 2.35 0.41 48.0
Dover DE 192 2.44 -1.29 48.0
Madison WI 192 2.48 1.51 48.0
Cheyenne WY 192 2.51 -0.77 48.0
Harrisburg PA 192 2.53 -1.52 48.0
Saint Paul MN 192 2.54 0.76 48.0
Concord NH 192 2.54 -1.19 48.0
Pierre SD 192 2.54 1.10 48.0
Annapolis MD 192 2.57 -0.91 48.0
Nashville TN 192 2.61 1.74 48.0
Providence RI 192 2.66 -2.35 48.0
Columbus OH 192 2.67 1.20 48.0
Hartford CT 192 2.70 -1.73 48.0
Bismarck ND 192 2.71 0.32 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 192 2.76 2.13 48.0
Carson City NV 192 2.81 1.95 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 192 2.81 1.36 48.0
Charleston WV 192 2.81 1.62 48.0
Lansing MI 192 2.82 1.88 48.0
Raleigh NC 192 2.86 -1.97 48.0
Atlanta GA 192 2.89 2.10 48.0
Springfield IL 192 2.96 1.77 48.0
Denver CO 192 3.01 0.07 48.0
Montpelier VT 192 3.03 1.40 48.0
Sacramento CA 192 3.04 2.82 48.0
Santa Fe NM 192 3.13 1.28 48.0
Topeka KS 192 3.26 -2.28 48.0
Lincoln NE 192 3.42 0.31 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 192 3.53 -1.43 48.0
Salem OR 192 3.54 2.68 48.0
Phoenix AZ 192 3.72 -1.09 48.0
Olympia WA 192 3.82 2.64 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Montgomery AL 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 15:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 16:00 MST Phoenix AZ 97.0°F 98.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 16:00 PDT Sacramento CA 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 17:00 MDT Denver CO 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Hartford CT 58.0°F 61.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Dover DE 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Atlanta GA 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 13:00 HST Honolulu HI 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 17:00 MDT Boise ID 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Springfield IL 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Des Moines IA 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Topeka KS 68.0°F 75.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 64.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Augusta ME 56.0°F 59.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Annapolis MD 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Boston MA 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Lansing MI 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Jackson MS 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 17:00 MDT Helena MT 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Lincoln NE 62.0°F 67.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 16:00 PDT Carson City NV 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Concord NH 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Trenton NJ 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 17:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 67.0°F 61.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Albany NY 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Raleigh NC 77.0°F 70.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Bismarck ND 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Columbus OH 68.0°F 62.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 18:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 83.0°F 87.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 16:00 PDT Salem OR 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Providence RI 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 19:00 EDT Columbia SC 82.0°F 75.0°F +7.0° 48.0