Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.11 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.24 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.56 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 1.64 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.70 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.77 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 1.78 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 1.82 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.84 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.99 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.02 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.08 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.10 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.11 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.11 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.23 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.25 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.26 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.35 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.36 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.37 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.37 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.41 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.42 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.44 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.52 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.56 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.57 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.63 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.64 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.67 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.71 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.77 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.88 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.90 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.92 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 3.08 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 3.12 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.18 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.22 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.34 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 3.40 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.47 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.48 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 3.50 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 3.58 | 3.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.96 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 4.27 | 3.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 4.29 | 3.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 4.59 | 4.25 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 110.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 91.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 88.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |