Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
57483
2759232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.44°
8600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-31 03:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 172 1.61 -0.63 48.0
Columbus OH 172 1.67 -1.08 48.0
Providence RI 172 1.70 -0.77 48.0
Salem OR 172 1.75 0.39 48.0
Topeka KS 172 1.84 -0.32 48.0
Hartford CT 172 1.90 -0.93 48.0
Saint Paul MN 172 1.92 0.28 48.0
Lansing MI 172 1.94 0.84 48.0
Pierre SD 172 1.94 0.88 48.0
Indianapolis IN 172 1.95 -1.05 48.0
Charleston WV 172 2.01 1.47 48.0
Sacramento CA 172 2.05 0.67 48.0
Nashville TN 172 2.05 0.78 48.0
Concord NH 172 2.09 -0.16 48.0
Annapolis MD 172 2.10 0.43 48.0
Boston MA 172 2.15 -0.60 48.0
Raleigh NC 172 2.15 0.26 48.0
Honolulu HI 172 2.18 -2.09 48.0
Montpelier VT 172 2.19 0.91 48.0
Frankfort KY 172 2.24 1.38 48.0
Augusta ME 172 2.24 -0.16 48.0
Tallahassee FL 172 2.26 -0.25 48.0
Jefferson City MO 172 2.26 1.37 48.0
Atlanta GA 172 2.34 0.39 48.0
Des Moines IA 172 2.35 1.72 48.0
Albany NY 172 2.35 -0.12 48.0
Jackson MS 172 2.44 0.91 48.0
Columbia SC 172 2.44 -0.52 48.0
Juneau AK 172 2.47 1.62 48.0
Lincoln NE 172 2.53 1.34 48.0
Trenton NJ 172 2.53 1.83 48.0
Bismarck ND 172 2.54 -0.94 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 172 2.60 -0.65 48.0
Carson City NV 172 2.66 -0.09 48.0
Olympia WA 172 2.69 -1.10 48.0
Dover DE 172 2.72 -0.67 48.0
Madison WI 172 2.72 1.03 48.0
Helena MT 172 2.81 -0.51 48.0
Austin TX 172 2.83 2.42 48.0
Springfield IL 172 2.84 2.16 48.0
Phoenix AZ 172 3.00 -1.95 48.0
Boise ID 172 3.01 -2.05 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 172 3.01 -0.41 48.0
Montgomery AL 172 3.05 -1.76 48.0
Cheyenne WY 172 3.15 -0.01 48.0
Santa Fe NM 172 3.17 -1.20 48.0
Little Rock AR 172 3.21 1.23 48.0
Harrisburg PA 172 3.40 -1.14 48.0
Denver CO 172 3.53 2.40 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 172 3.53 0.90 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Montgomery AL 79.0°F 86.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 19:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 20:00 MST Phoenix AZ 93.0°F 103.0°F -10.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Little Rock AR 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 20:00 PDT Sacramento CA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 21:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 66.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Hartford CT 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Atlanta GA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 17:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 21:00 MDT Boise ID 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Springfield IL 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Des Moines IA 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Topeka KS 86.0°F 90.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Frankfort KY 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 59.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Boston MA 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Lansing MI 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Jackson MS 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 21:00 MDT Helena MT 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Lincoln NE 87.0°F 79.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 20:00 PDT Carson City NV 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Concord NH 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 21:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 75.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Albany NY 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Raleigh NC 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Bismarck ND 70.0°F 64.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Columbus OH 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 22:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 20:00 PDT Salem OR 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-30 23:00 EDT Columbia SC 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0