Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 178 | 1.19 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 1.66 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.69 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 1.71 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.78 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.79 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.83 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.96 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 1.99 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.06 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.13 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.21 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.24 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.24 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.24 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.24 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.27 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.31 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.35 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.37 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.41 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.42 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.44 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.45 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.46 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.46 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.50 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.52 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.52 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.53 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.53 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.54 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.54 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.64 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.71 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.74 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.75 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.78 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.80 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.90 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.22 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.28 | -2.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.47 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.53 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.56 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.61 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.72 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.80 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 4.12 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 4.12 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 51.0°F | 44.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |