Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.22 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 1.51 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.66 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 1.79 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.80 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 1.82 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.87 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.92 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 1.93 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.05 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.09 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.11 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.20 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.20 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.21 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.24 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.28 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.33 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.33 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.35 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.38 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.41 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.44 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.44 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.45 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.45 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.45 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.45 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.48 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.52 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.55 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.56 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.57 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.60 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.67 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.71 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.71 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.78 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.79 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.83 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.10 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.40 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.41 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.56 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.66 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.68 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.73 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.76 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.93 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.95 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 73.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 65.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |