Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.55 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.68 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.72 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 1.74 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 1.75 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 1.83 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.92 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.96 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 1.99 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.00 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.01 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.02 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.09 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.20 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.22 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.24 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.28 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.30 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.31 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.32 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.32 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.33 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.36 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.45 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.48 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.52 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.55 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.56 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.67 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.68 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.70 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.80 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.80 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.84 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.87 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.94 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 3.01 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.06 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.15 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 3.16 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.32 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.36 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.41 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.49 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.63 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.91 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.96 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 4.25 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 4.38 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 102.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 75.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 82.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 94.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 62.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 68.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |