Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.38 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 1.48 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.57 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 1.66 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.74 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 1.78 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.90 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.96 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 1.97 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 1.99 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.05 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.06 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.06 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.16 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.16 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.18 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.18 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.24 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.25 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.26 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.34 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.34 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.37 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.38 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.41 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.42 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.44 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.63 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.63 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.69 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.69 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.71 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.71 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.73 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.78 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.80 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.83 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.86 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.91 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.04 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.05 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.08 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.12 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.13 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.19 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 3.24 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.37 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.45 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.67 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 4.24 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |