Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.32 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 1.54 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 1.79 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.94 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.02 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.15 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.16 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.21 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.22 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.24 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.27 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.34 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.36 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.37 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.43 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.43 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.49 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.53 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.54 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.59 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.62 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.63 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.63 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.67 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.68 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.68 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.74 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.77 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.78 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.78 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.87 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.96 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.97 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 3.01 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.18 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 3.24 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 3.24 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 3.25 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.29 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 3.30 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.36 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.37 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 3.48 | -3.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.48 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 3.67 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.68 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.81 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 4.13 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 4.24 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 4.26 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 36.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 50.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 34.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 32.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 36.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 60.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |