Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.33 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 1.61 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.78 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.82 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 1.89 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 1.92 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.95 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 1.99 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.01 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.06 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 2.09 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.09 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.18 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.24 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.25 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.26 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.31 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.32 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.33 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.34 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.35 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.36 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.42 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.42 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.44 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.45 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.46 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.50 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.55 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.55 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.57 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.58 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.67 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.81 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.81 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.86 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.95 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.99 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.06 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.11 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.17 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.18 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 3.27 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 3.39 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.49 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.61 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.69 | 3.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.83 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.86 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.90 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |