Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.11 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.50 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 1.67 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 1.67 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 1.79 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 1.90 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 1.95 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 1.97 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 1.98 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.98 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 2.02 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.09 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.09 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.13 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.14 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.17 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.19 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.24 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.34 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.34 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.35 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.38 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.41 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.43 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.48 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.49 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.50 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.51 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.51 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.53 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.59 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.68 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.70 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.74 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.81 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.82 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.86 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.86 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.01 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.08 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.10 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.18 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.19 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.26 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 3.30 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 3.82 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 3.91 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 3.95 | 3.68 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 3.99 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 4.25 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 85.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 80.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 78.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 84.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |