Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.54 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 1.66 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 1.78 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 1.80 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.85 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.94 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 1.96 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.09 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.11 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.13 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.16 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.17 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.19 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.20 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.20 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.22 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.27 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.27 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.28 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.29 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.32 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.35 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.38 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.39 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.44 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.47 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.56 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.64 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.66 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.72 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.72 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.76 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.81 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.82 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.82 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.86 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.89 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 3.01 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.03 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 3.03 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 3.06 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.11 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.14 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.26 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.34 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.51 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 3.89 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 4.02 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 4.31 | 3.94 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 4.68 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |