Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.12 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.46 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 1.57 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 1.63 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.67 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 1.88 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.91 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.92 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 1.99 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.06 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.07 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.12 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.15 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.20 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.20 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.24 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.25 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.34 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.35 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.41 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.44 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.44 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.44 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.51 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.56 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.57 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.57 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.59 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.60 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.67 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.80 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.87 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.93 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.93 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.95 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.97 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.13 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.14 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.15 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.16 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.18 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.22 | -2.85 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.24 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.25 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.34 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.37 | 3.21 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 3.69 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.69 | -2.64 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.99 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 4.05 | -3.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 105.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 74.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 90.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |