Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.65 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.69 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.79 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.82 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.83 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 1.86 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.88 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 1.93 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 1.93 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.95 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 1.95 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.95 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 1.99 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.02 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.15 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.20 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.22 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.22 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.23 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.34 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.37 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.44 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.46 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.46 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.49 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.54 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.67 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.68 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.68 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.77 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.84 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.85 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.85 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.86 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.89 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.90 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.99 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.04 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.10 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.10 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.18 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.20 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.34 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.36 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.44 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.44 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 3.52 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.56 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.77 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.96 | -3.09 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 97.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 84.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 64.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 59.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |