Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.12 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.53 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 1.66 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 1.68 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 1.89 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 1.89 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 1.93 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.96 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.99 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 1.99 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 1.99 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.08 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.11 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.15 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.15 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.17 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.23 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.30 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.32 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.37 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.39 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.41 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.44 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.45 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.45 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.47 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.52 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.53 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.56 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.57 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.61 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.69 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.70 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 2.71 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.79 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.80 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.83 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.84 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.98 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.13 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.23 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.23 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.24 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 3.27 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.28 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 3.81 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 3.86 | 3.27 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 3.91 | 3.65 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 3.92 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 4.31 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 96.0°F | 88.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 103.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 101.0°F | 99.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 95.0°F | 84.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 82.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 96.0°F | 86.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 101.0°F | 97.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 97.0°F | 92.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 98.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 66.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 97.0°F | 92.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |