Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.53 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.67 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 1.76 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 1.79 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.85 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.93 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 1.97 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.10 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.11 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.13 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.15 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.18 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.19 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.21 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.21 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.22 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.28 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.28 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.29 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.29 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.33 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.38 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.38 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.38 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.46 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.47 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.52 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.63 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.66 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.71 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.74 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.74 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.83 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.83 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.83 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.84 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.91 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.00 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.03 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 3.05 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.06 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.13 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.13 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.26 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.36 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.52 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 3.85 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 4.06 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 4.35 | 3.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 4.69 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |