Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
51883
2490432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.49°
9000 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-26 11:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Frankfort KY 180 1.68 0.56 48.0
Richmond VA 180 1.72 0.06 48.0
Charleston WV 180 1.79 0.56 48.0
Austin TX 180 1.82 1.54 48.0
Trenton NJ 180 1.87 0.87 48.0
Columbus OH 180 1.91 -1.52 48.0
Juneau AK 180 1.93 1.03 48.0
Annapolis MD 180 1.93 1.17 48.0
Lansing MI 180 1.94 0.67 48.0
Saint Paul MN 180 1.95 -0.17 48.0
Honolulu HI 180 2.08 -1.56 48.0
Raleigh NC 180 2.10 0.68 48.0
Sacramento CA 180 2.12 0.72 48.0
Jefferson City MO 180 2.12 1.37 48.0
Indianapolis IN 180 2.14 -1.86 48.0
Nashville TN 180 2.14 0.58 48.0
Harrisburg PA 180 2.22 0.97 48.0
Madison WI 180 2.25 1.32 48.0
Providence RI 180 2.28 0.18 48.0
Augusta ME 180 2.33 -1.84 48.0
Boise ID 180 2.37 -1.43 48.0
Lincoln NE 180 2.43 1.02 48.0
Atlanta GA 180 2.44 1.83 48.0
Pierre SD 180 2.45 0.11 48.0
Boston MA 180 2.48 0.09 48.0
Des Moines IA 180 2.52 -1.16 48.0
Salem OR 180 2.54 -0.28 48.0
Albany NY 180 2.55 -0.68 48.0
Topeka KS 180 2.57 1.66 48.0
Montpelier VT 180 2.58 1.23 48.0
Springfield IL 180 2.59 1.66 48.0
Dover DE 180 2.61 -0.92 48.0
Columbia SC 180 2.66 -0.04 48.0
Tallahassee FL 180 2.68 1.22 48.0
Helena MT 180 2.68 -0.73 48.0
Carson City NV 180 2.68 -1.70 48.0
Concord NH 180 2.71 -0.67 48.0
Jackson MS 180 2.76 1.58 48.0
Hartford CT 180 2.84 -0.49 48.0
Bismarck ND 180 2.89 -1.14 48.0
Montgomery AL 180 2.97 -0.68 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 180 3.00 0.91 48.0
Cheyenne WY 180 3.07 0.11 48.0
Santa Fe NM 180 3.09 0.61 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 180 3.17 -0.61 48.0
Denver CO 180 3.18 0.74 48.0
Phoenix AZ 180 3.23 -0.72 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 180 3.23 3.07 48.0
Little Rock AR 180 3.52 -0.33 48.0
Olympia WA 180 3.94 -2.02 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Montgomery AL 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 03:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 48.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 04:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Little Rock AR 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 04:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 05:00 MDT Denver CO 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Hartford CT 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Dover DE 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Atlanta GA 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 01:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 05:00 MDT Boise ID 69.0°F 74.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Springfield IL 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Des Moines IA 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Topeka KS 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Frankfort KY 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Annapolis MD 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Boston MA 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Lansing MI 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Jackson MS 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 05:00 MDT Helena MT 58.0°F 62.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Lincoln NE 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 04:00 PDT Carson City NV 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Trenton NJ 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 05:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 62.0°F 68.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Albany NY 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Raleigh NC 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Bismarck ND 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Columbus OH 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 06:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 04:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 54.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Providence RI 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 07:00 EDT Columbia SC 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0