Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.09 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.27 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.52 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 1.59 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.70 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.82 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 1.84 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 1.85 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.93 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.03 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.04 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.04 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.15 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.16 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.19 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.20 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.22 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.26 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.28 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.29 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.30 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.31 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.33 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.34 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.40 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.60 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 2.65 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.67 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.68 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.72 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.73 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.75 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.77 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.87 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.91 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 3.02 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.04 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 3.13 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.17 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.17 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 3.28 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.35 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.39 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 3.41 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 3.44 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 3.44 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.88 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 4.08 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 4.19 | 3.83 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 4.46 | 4.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |