Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.72 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 1.81 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.85 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.85 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.86 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 1.89 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.91 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 1.92 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.98 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 1.99 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 1.99 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.00 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.11 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.14 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 2.21 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.23 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.25 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.27 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.32 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.33 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.34 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.34 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.36 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.36 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.38 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.40 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.45 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.46 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.51 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.52 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.52 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.61 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.63 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.64 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.68 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.70 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.74 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.77 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.78 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.83 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.83 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.90 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.97 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.06 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.15 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.29 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.31 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.51 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.62 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 4.09 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 75.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 78.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 77.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |