Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 1.57 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.80 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.81 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 1.98 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.01 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.01 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.10 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.11 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 2.12 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.12 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.14 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.15 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.15 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.16 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.22 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.26 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.36 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.38 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.39 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.39 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.49 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.53 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.54 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.55 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.57 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.58 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.68 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.70 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.71 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.72 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.75 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.76 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.76 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.79 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.79 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.79 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.84 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.84 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.91 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 3.04 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.18 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 3.21 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.26 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.27 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.28 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.30 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.55 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.82 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.98 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 4.15 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 66.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 92.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 74.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 62.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 64.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 77.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |