Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.58 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.79 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.82 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.90 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.91 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.05 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.05 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.06 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.11 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.18 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.21 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.22 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.31 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.34 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.34 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.34 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.35 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.37 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.42 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.43 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.48 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.51 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.52 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.54 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.56 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.57 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.61 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.62 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.70 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.71 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.71 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.71 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 2.77 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.83 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.86 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.87 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.88 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.89 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.90 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.93 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.95 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.96 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.12 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.17 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.34 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.47 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.53 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.60 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.63 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.72 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 104.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 105.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 93.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 97.0°F | 93.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 94.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |