Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.27 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 1.59 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.59 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 1.64 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.71 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 1.82 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.88 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.93 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.94 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 1.96 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 1.97 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.03 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.05 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.08 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.24 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.26 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.28 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.34 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.37 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.37 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.40 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.43 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.45 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.49 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.55 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.55 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.56 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.66 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.67 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.70 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.73 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.74 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.77 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.94 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.97 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 3.00 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.06 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.11 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 3.11 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.21 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.29 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 3.36 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.41 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.41 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.42 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.68 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 4.11 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 4.16 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 4.21 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 93.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 55.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |