Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.52 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.70 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 1.80 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.81 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 1.82 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 1.85 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 1.88 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.90 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.01 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.02 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.02 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.03 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.06 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.08 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.16 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.16 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.17 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 2.18 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.20 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.22 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.26 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.32 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.34 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.36 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.37 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.43 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.51 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.52 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.52 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.56 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.57 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.57 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.59 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.60 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.61 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.71 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.79 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.80 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.82 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.91 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.93 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 3.03 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.10 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.14 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.15 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.21 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.25 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 3.45 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.50 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.52 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 70.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 65.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 62.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |