Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.71 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 1.73 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 1.84 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.85 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 1.86 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.89 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 1.91 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.91 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.94 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.04 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.07 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.08 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 2.12 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.12 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.15 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.16 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.19 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.21 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.31 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.31 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.42 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.43 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.44 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.44 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.44 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.44 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.52 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.54 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.57 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.57 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.58 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.59 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.60 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.63 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 2.64 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.64 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.70 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.73 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.81 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.83 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.93 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.00 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.01 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.06 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.12 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.17 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.17 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.25 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 3.51 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.87 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 89.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 108.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 78.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |