Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.55 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.68 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.85 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 1.88 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 1.95 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 1.99 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 2.01 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.05 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.12 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.12 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.14 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.15 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.16 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.20 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.21 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.22 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.23 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.24 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.28 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.28 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.37 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.39 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.39 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.43 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.49 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.54 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.58 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.62 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.65 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.68 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.72 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.77 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.79 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.82 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.85 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.86 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.94 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 2.94 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.96 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.04 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.08 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.09 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.20 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.25 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.31 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.39 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.86 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 4.05 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 4.36 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 4.51 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 100.0°F | 98.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 96.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 90.0°F | 96.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 86.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 63.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |