Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.21 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 1.43 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.68 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 1.80 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 1.82 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 1.85 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 1.86 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.90 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 1.92 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.07 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.09 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.12 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.19 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.23 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.24 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.26 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.27 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.29 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.33 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.35 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.36 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.40 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.40 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.43 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.45 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.45 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.47 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.47 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.49 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.49 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.53 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.60 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.60 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.64 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.67 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.69 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.70 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.78 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.80 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.88 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.15 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.24 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.35 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.53 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 3.62 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.70 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.71 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.72 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 4.00 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 4.02 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 48.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 35.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |