Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 180 | 0.95 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.64 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.67 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 1.69 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 1.70 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.74 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.87 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 1.88 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.94 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 1.99 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.00 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.06 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.11 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.20 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.22 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.22 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.28 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.36 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.36 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.36 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.47 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.48 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.48 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.49 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.50 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.52 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.54 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.57 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.59 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.64 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.68 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.79 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.81 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.82 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.83 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.84 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.88 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.89 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.92 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 3.01 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.29 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.33 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 3.34 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.49 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.53 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.66 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.67 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 3.69 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.92 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 4.20 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |