Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.51 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.70 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 1.80 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.85 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 1.86 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.88 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 1.89 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 1.95 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 1.99 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.01 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.01 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.06 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.07 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.11 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.15 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.18 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 2.19 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.19 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.20 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.29 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.31 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.34 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.35 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.36 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.41 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.51 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.56 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.56 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.58 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.58 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.58 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.59 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.59 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.59 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.70 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.80 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.82 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 2.82 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.89 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.94 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 3.03 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.11 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.14 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 3.17 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.18 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.25 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 3.43 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.53 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.56 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 70.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 80.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 72.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 70.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 99.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 62.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |