Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.19 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.53 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.53 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 1.67 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 1.85 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 1.96 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 1.97 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.05 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.08 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.09 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.11 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.12 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.12 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.15 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.17 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.19 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.21 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.21 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.22 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.25 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.28 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.31 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.33 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.38 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.39 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.40 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.41 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.51 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.59 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.62 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.71 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.80 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.83 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.87 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.95 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 3.01 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.01 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.05 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.08 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.16 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.19 | -3.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 3.23 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.27 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.28 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 3.37 | -2.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.43 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.71 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.75 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.80 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 4.18 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 103.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 90.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 78.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 77.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 87.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 86.0°F | -13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |