Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.30 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.37 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 1.60 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 1.63 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 1.66 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.73 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 1.73 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.76 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 1.87 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.05 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.08 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.14 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.28 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.31 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.31 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.32 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.35 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.36 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.45 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.49 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.52 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.54 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.55 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.58 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.62 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.65 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.71 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.75 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.76 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.77 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.83 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.88 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.88 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.90 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.93 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.00 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.01 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 3.06 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.12 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.13 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 3.14 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.17 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.31 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.32 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.35 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.47 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 3.64 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.76 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 4.27 | -3.57 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 55.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 78.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-06 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |