Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.20 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.32 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.37 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 1.56 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.69 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.72 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 1.83 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 1.88 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.94 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 1.98 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.11 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.11 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.16 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.17 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.17 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.19 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.24 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.29 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.31 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.31 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.35 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.40 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.41 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.41 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.42 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.42 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.47 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 2.56 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.62 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.65 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.71 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.76 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.79 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.83 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.86 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.94 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.97 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.98 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 3.02 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.02 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.08 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 3.22 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 3.30 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.40 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.43 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.43 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.50 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.65 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.65 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.70 | 3.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 89.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 97.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |