Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 1.43 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 1.64 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 1.72 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.76 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 1.82 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 1.84 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.91 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 1.93 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.95 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 1.96 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.04 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.11 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.17 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 2.20 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.21 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.30 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.30 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.31 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.35 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.37 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.40 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.44 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.50 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.52 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.53 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.54 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.56 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.63 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.64 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.66 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.67 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.69 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.69 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.83 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.85 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.90 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.93 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.01 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 3.09 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.20 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.21 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.30 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 3.36 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.46 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.50 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.60 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.64 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.70 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.73 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.89 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 93.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 78.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |