Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
52333
2512032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.48°
9450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-26 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 189 1.70 0.05 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 1.81 0.73 48.0
Austin TX 189 1.85 1.58 48.0
Charleston WV 189 1.86 0.68 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 1.87 0.90 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 1.88 -0.17 48.0
Columbus OH 189 1.91 -1.52 48.0
Lansing MI 189 1.92 0.71 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 1.94 1.16 48.0
Juneau AK 189 2.04 1.12 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 2.05 0.59 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 2.07 0.71 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 2.12 1.21 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 2.14 -1.64 48.0
Indianapolis IN 189 2.14 -1.85 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 2.17 0.96 48.0
Madison WI 189 2.21 1.25 48.0
Providence RI 189 2.29 0.06 48.0
Nashville TN 189 2.29 0.77 48.0
Augusta ME 189 2.30 -1.84 48.0
Pierre SD 189 2.41 0.18 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 2.42 -1.09 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.43 0.06 48.0
Boise ID 189 2.44 -1.56 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.45 1.87 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 2.46 0.83 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 2.51 1.23 48.0
Albany NY 189 2.54 -0.66 48.0
Springfield IL 189 2.56 1.50 48.0
Dover DE 189 2.59 -0.76 48.0
Topeka KS 189 2.59 1.52 48.0
Salem OR 189 2.60 -0.08 48.0
Concord NH 189 2.62 -0.66 48.0
Helena MT 189 2.63 -0.76 48.0
Carson City NV 189 2.65 -1.63 48.0
Columbia SC 189 2.66 0.06 48.0
Jackson MS 189 2.72 1.42 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 2.76 1.30 48.0
Hartford CT 189 2.79 -0.54 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 2.83 -1.09 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 2.90 -0.57 48.0
Cheyenne WY 189 3.00 0.04 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 3.04 0.93 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 3.05 0.50 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 3.11 -0.66 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 3.14 -0.73 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 3.14 2.97 48.0
Denver CO 189 3.24 0.91 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 3.51 -0.47 48.0
Olympia WA 189 3.83 -2.00 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 113.0°F 114.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 95.0°F 99.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 14:00 MDT Denver CO 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 87.0°F 80.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 14:00 MDT Boise ID 92.0°F 96.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 88.0°F 78.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Boston MA 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 14:00 MDT Helena MT 83.0°F 88.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Concord NH 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Albany NY 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 93.0°F 86.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 13:00 PDT Salem OR 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Providence RI 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-26 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 88.0°F 75.0°F +13.0° 48.0