Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.57 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 1.64 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 1.69 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 1.71 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 1.77 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 1.78 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 1.80 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 1.87 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 1.92 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 1.99 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.01 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.04 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.07 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.07 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.10 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.13 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.14 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.16 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.18 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 2.19 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.20 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.21 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 2.25 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.28 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.31 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.33 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.37 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.38 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.38 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.44 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.47 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.49 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.61 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 2.73 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.76 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.76 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.77 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.80 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.92 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.92 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 2.94 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 2.96 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.02 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 3.04 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.05 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.10 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.23 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 3.34 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 3.37 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 3.54 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-29 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |