Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
50183
2408832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
8500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-25 01:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Juneau AK 170 1.56 0.56 48.0
Frankfort KY 170 1.56 0.25 48.0
Austin TX 170 1.69 1.36 48.0
Charleston WV 170 1.72 -0.03 48.0
Richmond VA 170 1.87 -0.21 48.0
Honolulu HI 170 1.88 -1.21 48.0
Saint Paul MN 170 1.94 -0.35 48.0
Lansing MI 170 1.98 0.74 48.0
Raleigh NC 170 1.99 0.51 48.0
Boise ID 170 2.01 -0.76 48.0
Indianapolis IN 170 2.02 -1.52 48.0
Trenton NJ 170 2.05 0.92 48.0
Annapolis MD 170 2.07 1.15 48.0
Columbus OH 170 2.13 -1.72 48.0
Sacramento CA 170 2.20 0.42 48.0
Harrisburg PA 170 2.24 1.13 48.0
Augusta ME 170 2.28 -1.68 48.0
Providence RI 170 2.28 0.53 48.0
Nashville TN 170 2.30 0.95 48.0
Madison WI 170 2.32 1.59 48.0
Dover DE 170 2.36 -0.56 48.0
Albany NY 170 2.37 -0.29 48.0
Des Moines IA 170 2.46 -1.57 48.0
Salem OR 170 2.48 -0.59 48.0
Jefferson City MO 170 2.50 2.16 48.0
Springfield IL 170 2.53 1.91 48.0
Jackson MS 170 2.56 1.35 48.0
Columbia SC 170 2.64 0.22 48.0
Montpelier VT 170 2.66 1.30 48.0
Atlanta GA 170 2.69 2.09 48.0
Boston MA 170 2.70 0.95 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 170 2.72 2.53 48.0
Lincoln NE 170 2.72 1.44 48.0
Hartford CT 170 2.75 -0.02 48.0
Santa Fe NM 170 2.79 1.07 48.0
Topeka KS 170 2.84 2.19 48.0
Pierre SD 170 2.85 0.06 48.0
Tallahassee FL 170 2.86 1.61 48.0
Montgomery AL 170 2.89 -0.23 48.0
Helena MT 170 2.92 -0.98 48.0
Carson City NV 170 2.95 -2.05 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 170 2.98 0.99 48.0
Concord NH 170 3.01 -1.22 48.0
Bismarck ND 170 3.10 -1.45 48.0
Phoenix AZ 170 3.24 -0.58 48.0
Cheyenne WY 170 3.30 0.63 48.0
Denver CO 170 3.44 0.47 48.0
Little Rock AR 170 3.49 -0.49 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 170 3.50 -1.02 48.0
Olympia WA 170 3.91 -2.37 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Montgomery AL 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 17:00 AKDT Juneau AK 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 18:00 MST Phoenix AZ 105.0°F 106.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 77.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 18:00 PDT Sacramento CA 88.0°F 92.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 19:00 MDT Denver CO 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Hartford CT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 15:00 HST Honolulu HI 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 19:00 MDT Boise ID 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 68.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Des Moines IA 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 88.0°F 78.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Augusta ME 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Boston MA 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Jackson MS 86.0°F 77.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 19:00 MDT Helena MT 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Lincoln NE 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 18:00 PDT Carson City NV 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Concord NH 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 19:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Albany NY 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Raleigh NC 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Bismarck ND 79.0°F 87.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Columbus OH 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 20:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 100.0°F 101.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 18:00 PDT Salem OR 86.0°F 92.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Providence RI 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-24 21:00 EDT Columbia SC 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0