Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
71233
3419232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
9150 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-11 14:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 183 1.26 -0.07 48.0
Indianapolis IN 183 1.60 -0.43 48.0
Jefferson City MO 183 1.80 0.31 48.0
Honolulu HI 183 1.84 -1.12 48.0
Sacramento CA 183 1.88 -0.28 48.0
Austin TX 183 1.89 0.25 48.0
Albany NY 183 1.90 -0.78 48.0
Columbus OH 183 1.97 0.70 48.0
Lansing MI 183 2.09 1.21 48.0
Nashville TN 183 2.09 -0.05 48.0
Richmond VA 183 2.09 0.13 48.0
Annapolis MD 183 2.14 -0.55 48.0
Jackson MS 183 2.18 1.35 48.0
Cheyenne WY 183 2.19 -0.37 48.0
Saint Paul MN 183 2.24 0.59 48.0
Salem OR 183 2.26 0.12 48.0
Augusta ME 183 2.27 -0.42 48.0
Raleigh NC 183 2.27 -0.52 48.0
Columbia SC 183 2.27 0.13 48.0
Charleston WV 183 2.27 1.62 48.0
Trenton NJ 183 2.28 -2.00 48.0
Harrisburg PA 183 2.34 -1.28 48.0
Hartford CT 183 2.45 -1.59 48.0
Madison WI 183 2.48 1.10 48.0
Topeka KS 183 2.49 1.73 48.0
Providence RI 183 2.58 -2.38 48.0
Atlanta GA 183 2.59 1.16 48.0
Lincoln NE 183 2.63 1.61 48.0
Dover DE 183 2.66 -2.07 48.0
Frankfort KY 183 2.66 0.90 48.0
Tallahassee FL 183 2.82 -0.87 48.0
Boston MA 183 2.85 -0.42 48.0
Des Moines IA 183 2.86 1.59 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 183 2.90 1.65 48.0
Phoenix AZ 183 2.91 -2.44 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 183 2.92 1.44 48.0
Montpelier VT 183 2.97 0.78 48.0
Helena MT 183 2.99 -1.66 48.0
Concord NH 183 2.99 -0.57 48.0
Bismarck ND 183 3.04 1.16 48.0
Montgomery AL 183 3.14 0.73 48.0
Carson City NV 183 3.15 -0.91 48.0
Juneau AK 183 3.18 0.27 48.0
Olympia WA 183 3.34 0.28 48.0
Denver CO 183 3.39 0.77 48.0
Boise ID 183 3.39 1.02 48.0
Santa Fe NM 183 3.52 -2.40 48.0
Pierre SD 183 3.57 2.36 48.0
Springfield IL 183 3.66 3.19 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 183 3.66 -2.73 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 AKDT Juneau AK 47.0°F 40.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 MST Phoenix AZ 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Little Rock AR 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 08:00 MDT Denver CO 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Hartford CT 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 82.0°F 76.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 08:00 MDT Boise ID 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Springfield IL 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Des Moines IA 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Topeka KS 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Annapolis MD 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Boston MA 65.0°F 70.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Lansing MI 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Jackson MS 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 08:00 MDT Helena MT 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Lincoln NE 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 PDT Carson City NV 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Trenton NJ 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 08:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 65.0°F 60.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Albany NY 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Raleigh NC 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Bismarck ND 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 09:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 07:00 PDT Salem OR 52.0°F 49.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Providence RI 64.0°F 69.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 10:00 EDT Columbia SC 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0