Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.14 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.33 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.56 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 1.61 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 1.62 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 1.66 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 1.70 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 1.81 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.95 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 1.95 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.00 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.02 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.04 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.04 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.14 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.16 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.17 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.29 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.29 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.30 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.31 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.35 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.40 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.43 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.46 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.46 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.50 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.50 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.57 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.57 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.62 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.63 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 2.66 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.70 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.72 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.73 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.83 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.84 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.86 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.96 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 3.09 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 3.28 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 3.42 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 3.43 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.52 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 3.67 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 3.68 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 3.84 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 4.16 | 3.72 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 4.56 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |