Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
41583
1996032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
9500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-17 21:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 190 1.19 0.50 48.0
Jackson MS 190 1.27 0.59 48.0
Little Rock AR 190 1.63 -0.53 48.0
Providence RI 190 1.68 0.26 48.0
Hartford CT 190 1.72 0.74 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 190 1.80 0.28 48.0
Honolulu HI 190 1.92 -1.04 48.0
Madison WI 190 1.94 0.18 48.0
Lansing MI 190 1.98 0.23 48.0
Concord NH 190 1.98 -0.07 48.0
Augusta ME 190 2.01 0.34 48.0
Albany NY 190 2.04 0.30 48.0
Nashville TN 190 2.05 1.65 48.0
Boston MA 190 2.08 0.02 48.0
Raleigh NC 190 2.08 0.86 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 190 2.19 0.51 48.0
Salem OR 190 2.23 1.16 48.0
Richmond VA 190 2.27 0.61 48.0
Helena MT 190 2.28 0.17 48.0
Boise ID 190 2.34 -0.38 48.0
Atlanta GA 190 2.37 1.62 48.0
Tallahassee FL 190 2.39 0.02 48.0
Carson City NV 190 2.41 -0.78 48.0
Lincoln NE 190 2.46 0.51 48.0
Pierre SD 190 2.47 -0.99 48.0
Des Moines IA 190 2.48 0.36 48.0
Saint Paul MN 190 2.49 -1.17 48.0
Dover DE 190 2.52 0.59 48.0
Olympia WA 190 2.53 0.29 48.0
Trenton NJ 190 2.56 1.24 48.0
Topeka KS 190 2.65 1.33 48.0
Montpelier VT 190 2.74 0.95 48.0
Jefferson City MO 190 2.76 2.24 48.0
Sacramento CA 190 2.81 1.71 48.0
Phoenix AZ 190 2.84 -0.88 48.0
Harrisburg PA 190 2.88 0.74 48.0
Annapolis MD 190 3.01 0.76 48.0
Bismarck ND 190 3.01 -1.75 48.0
Denver CO 190 3.04 1.06 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 190 3.06 -1.29 48.0
Santa Fe NM 190 3.20 -2.16 48.0
Montgomery AL 190 3.36 0.55 48.0
Columbia SC 190 3.43 2.79 48.0
Cheyenne WY 190 3.58 0.14 48.0
Juneau AK 190 3.77 -0.35 48.0
Charleston WV 190 3.89 2.66 48.0
Columbus OH 190 3.93 3.25 48.0
Springfield IL 190 3.96 3.24 48.0
Indianapolis IN 190 4.51 3.35 48.0
Frankfort KY 190 4.55 4.17 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Montgomery AL 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 13:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 14:00 MST Phoenix AZ 108.0°F 111.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Little Rock AR 102.0°F 93.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 14:00 PDT Sacramento CA 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 15:00 MDT Denver CO 87.0°F 91.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Hartford CT 82.0°F 76.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Dover DE 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 92.0°F 100.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Atlanta GA 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 11:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 15:00 MDT Boise ID 90.0°F 86.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Springfield IL 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Des Moines IA 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Topeka KS 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Frankfort KY 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Annapolis MD 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Boston MA 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Lansing MI 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Jackson MS 102.0°F 100.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 15:00 MDT Helena MT 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Lincoln NE 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 14:00 PDT Carson City NV 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Concord NH 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Trenton NJ 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 15:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Albany NY 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Raleigh NC 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Bismarck ND 82.0°F 86.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Columbus OH 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 16:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 95.0°F 98.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 14:00 PDT Salem OR 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Providence RI 78.0°F 72.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 EDT Columbia SC 101.0°F 99.0°F +2.0° 48.0