Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.52 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.79 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.84 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.86 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 1.92 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.00 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.04 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.10 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.13 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.17 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.18 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.21 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.29 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.30 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.30 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.34 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.34 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.38 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.40 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.48 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.50 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.56 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.57 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.61 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.61 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.64 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.65 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.66 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.66 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.68 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.68 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.75 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.78 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.84 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 2.86 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.86 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.88 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.89 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.93 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.09 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.13 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.20 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 3.21 | 3.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.47 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.58 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 3.61 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 3.64 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.75 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.76 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 74.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 78.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 63.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 61.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |