Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
86383
4146432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-24 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 174 1.50 0.66 48.0
Jackson MS 174 1.55 0.43 48.0
Honolulu HI 174 1.80 -1.76 48.0
Juneau AK 174 1.83 -1.11 48.0
Boise ID 174 1.91 -0.64 48.0
Augusta ME 174 2.01 -0.81 48.0
Tallahassee FL 174 2.03 0.05 48.0
Austin TX 174 2.11 1.36 48.0
Albany NY 174 2.13 -0.61 48.0
Richmond VA 174 2.13 -0.39 48.0
Helena MT 174 2.17 0.60 48.0
Indianapolis IN 174 2.20 0.99 48.0
Trenton NJ 174 2.22 -1.51 48.0
Boston MA 174 2.23 -1.48 48.0
Montgomery AL 174 2.24 1.32 48.0
Jefferson City MO 174 2.25 -0.52 48.0
Des Moines IA 174 2.29 0.00 48.0
Columbia SC 174 2.29 0.30 48.0
Bismarck ND 174 2.30 0.20 48.0
Lansing MI 174 2.44 1.57 48.0
Saint Paul MN 174 2.44 0.70 48.0
Dover DE 174 2.49 -1.24 48.0
Pierre SD 174 2.53 0.94 48.0
Annapolis MD 174 2.60 -0.51 48.0
Frankfort KY 174 2.63 1.05 48.0
Madison WI 174 2.66 1.80 48.0
Atlanta GA 174 2.70 2.20 48.0
Springfield IL 174 2.70 1.21 48.0
Carson City NV 174 2.74 1.96 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 174 2.74 1.10 48.0
Harrisburg PA 174 2.78 -1.64 48.0
Hartford CT 174 2.79 -1.88 48.0
Santa Fe NM 174 2.84 0.95 48.0
Providence RI 174 2.84 -2.48 48.0
Charleston WV 174 2.86 1.86 48.0
Columbus OH 174 2.87 1.70 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 174 2.90 2.45 48.0
Concord NH 174 2.91 -1.12 48.0
Topeka KS 174 3.02 -2.30 48.0
Cheyenne WY 174 3.03 -1.02 48.0
Lincoln NE 174 3.09 -1.53 48.0
Sacramento CA 174 3.16 2.97 48.0
Denver CO 174 3.24 0.72 48.0
Montpelier VT 174 3.34 1.95 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 174 3.36 -1.29 48.0
Phoenix AZ 174 3.62 -1.62 48.0
Nashville TN 174 3.66 2.99 48.0
Raleigh NC 174 3.67 -0.78 48.0
Salem OR 174 3.73 2.76 48.0
Olympia WA 174 3.76 2.67 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 47.0°F 48.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 86.0°F 90.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 23:00 MDT Denver CO 66.0°F 61.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 51.0°F 48.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Dover DE 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 23:00 MDT Boise ID 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 56.0°F 60.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 44.0°F 48.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Boston MA 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 59.0°F 65.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 23:00 MDT Helena MT 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Concord NH 44.0°F 40.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 56.0°F 53.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Albany NY 47.0°F 46.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 22:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 54.0°F 50.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Providence RI 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0