Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
39733
1907232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.54°
8850 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-16 08:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 177 1.13 0.45 48.0
Jackson MS 177 1.32 0.65 48.0
Little Rock AR 177 1.58 -0.44 48.0
Hartford CT 177 1.59 0.35 48.0
Providence RI 177 1.64 -0.12 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 177 1.69 -0.06 48.0
Augusta ME 177 1.69 0.36 48.0
Concord NH 177 1.82 -0.02 48.0
Trenton NJ 177 1.93 0.40 48.0
Honolulu HI 177 1.95 -1.51 48.0
Albany NY 177 1.97 0.05 48.0
Madison WI 177 2.03 0.51 48.0
Boston MA 177 2.06 -0.37 48.0
Lansing MI 177 2.09 0.62 48.0
Salem OR 177 2.15 0.65 48.0
Raleigh NC 177 2.19 0.84 48.0
Richmond VA 177 2.21 0.31 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 177 2.28 0.76 48.0
Nashville TN 177 2.32 1.97 48.0
Helena MT 177 2.33 0.37 48.0
Harrisburg PA 177 2.33 0.06 48.0
Tallahassee FL 177 2.40 0.27 48.0
Carson City NV 177 2.40 -0.68 48.0
Des Moines IA 177 2.46 0.01 48.0
Phoenix AZ 177 2.49 -0.21 48.0
Dover DE 177 2.49 0.05 48.0
Boise ID 177 2.50 0.03 48.0
Lincoln NE 177 2.50 0.53 48.0
Atlanta GA 177 2.52 1.67 48.0
Jefferson City MO 177 2.57 2.08 48.0
Topeka KS 177 2.58 1.12 48.0
Montpelier VT 177 2.62 1.64 48.0
Saint Paul MN 177 2.65 -1.10 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 177 2.65 -0.75 48.0
Olympia WA 177 2.68 0.06 48.0
Pierre SD 177 2.77 -0.46 48.0
Annapolis MD 177 2.83 0.46 48.0
Santa Fe NM 177 2.86 -2.18 48.0
Bismarck ND 177 2.88 -1.66 48.0
Denver CO 177 3.02 1.30 48.0
Columbia SC 177 3.15 2.12 48.0
Montgomery AL 177 3.36 0.12 48.0
Sacramento CA 177 3.36 3.01 48.0
Cheyenne WY 177 3.37 0.66 48.0
Springfield IL 177 3.58 2.76 48.0
Juneau AK 177 3.60 -0.41 48.0
Columbus OH 177 3.75 2.93 48.0
Charleston WV 177 3.92 1.98 48.0
Frankfort KY 177 4.26 3.80 48.0
Indianapolis IN 177 4.67 2.72 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Montgomery AL 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 00:00 AKDT Juneau AK 62.0°F 57.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 MST Phoenix AZ 89.0°F 97.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Little Rock AR 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 02:00 MDT Denver CO 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Hartford CT 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Dover DE 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Atlanta GA 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 22:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 02:00 MDT Boise ID 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Springfield IL 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Des Moines IA 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Frankfort KY 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Augusta ME 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Boston MA 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Lansing MI 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Jackson MS 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 02:00 MDT Helena MT 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Lincoln NE 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 PDT Carson City NV 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Concord NH 50.0°F 51.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Trenton NJ 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 02:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Albany NY 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Raleigh NC 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Bismarck ND 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Columbus OH 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 03:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 81.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 01:00 PDT Salem OR 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Providence RI 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 04:00 EDT Columbia SC 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0