Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
44733
2147232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.53°
9050 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-20 12:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 181 1.18 0.49 48.0
Jackson MS 181 1.33 0.63 48.0
Raleigh NC 181 1.38 0.35 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 181 1.57 0.59 48.0
Honolulu HI 181 1.71 -0.43 48.0
Richmond VA 181 1.73 -0.68 48.0
Providence RI 181 1.82 -0.03 48.0
Little Rock AR 181 1.86 -0.54 48.0
Lansing MI 181 1.86 -0.01 48.0
Dover DE 181 2.00 -0.29 48.0
Augusta ME 181 2.06 -0.12 48.0
Hartford CT 181 2.08 0.38 48.0
Albany NY 181 2.11 0.19 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 181 2.12 0.03 48.0
Saint Paul MN 181 2.20 -0.29 48.0
Harrisburg PA 181 2.21 -0.08 48.0
Sacramento CA 181 2.22 0.44 48.0
Boston MA 181 2.32 0.13 48.0
Charleston WV 181 2.33 0.43 48.0
Trenton NJ 181 2.34 0.92 48.0
Annapolis MD 181 2.35 0.06 48.0
Boise ID 181 2.38 -1.00 48.0
Concord NH 181 2.38 -0.71 48.0
Nashville TN 181 2.38 2.07 48.0
Madison WI 181 2.40 1.05 48.0
Salem OR 181 2.41 0.82 48.0
Columbus OH 181 2.46 0.88 48.0
Montpelier VT 181 2.59 0.28 48.0
Carson City NV 181 2.62 -1.40 48.0
Helena MT 181 2.65 -0.54 48.0
Des Moines IA 181 2.69 0.07 48.0
Atlanta GA 181 2.76 2.21 48.0
Pierre SD 181 2.76 -1.60 48.0
Lincoln NE 181 2.82 1.10 48.0
Columbia SC 181 2.92 2.42 48.0
Tallahassee FL 181 2.95 1.50 48.0
Indianapolis IN 181 2.98 2.13 48.0
Topeka KS 181 2.98 1.97 48.0
Olympia WA 181 3.01 -0.49 48.0
Frankfort KY 181 3.04 2.54 48.0
Bismarck ND 181 3.10 -2.20 48.0
Jefferson City MO 181 3.26 2.77 48.0
Juneau AK 181 3.35 0.90 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 181 3.37 -1.92 48.0
Santa Fe NM 181 3.39 -1.22 48.0
Montgomery AL 181 3.40 1.70 48.0
Phoenix AZ 181 3.44 -1.41 48.0
Denver CO 181 3.62 0.94 48.0
Cheyenne WY 181 3.66 0.81 48.0
Springfield IL 181 3.75 3.33 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 04:00 AKDT Juneau AK 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 05:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 83.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Little Rock AR 79.0°F 84.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 05:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 06:00 MDT Denver CO 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 02:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 06:00 MDT Boise ID 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Springfield IL 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Des Moines IA 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Topeka KS 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Frankfort KY 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Augusta ME 64.0°F 70.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Lansing MI 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Jackson MS 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 06:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 54.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Lincoln NE 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 05:00 PDT Carson City NV 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Concord NH 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Trenton NJ 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 06:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Albany NY 64.0°F 69.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Raleigh NC 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Bismarck ND 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Columbus OH 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 07:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 77.0°F 84.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 05:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 08:00 EDT Columbia SC 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0