Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 188 | 0.99 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 1.79 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 1.81 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 1.84 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.86 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 1.87 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 1.95 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.10 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.11 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.11 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.19 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.20 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.27 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.28 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.29 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.30 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 2.31 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.34 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.35 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.35 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.37 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.39 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.45 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.55 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.60 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.62 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.63 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.65 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.66 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.67 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.73 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.74 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.75 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.78 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.79 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.96 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 3.06 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 3.22 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 3.23 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.24 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.28 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.29 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 3.43 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 3.47 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.50 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.55 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.55 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 3.61 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.99 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 4.44 | 4.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 82.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 76.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 68.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 95.0°F | 87.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 73.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 101.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 97.0°F | 91.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |