Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.56 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.64 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.78 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.85 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.91 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.94 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 1.98 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 1.99 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 2.08 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.08 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.11 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.18 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.18 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.26 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.27 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.27 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.28 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.29 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.31 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.37 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.38 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.40 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.40 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.40 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.42 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.42 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.44 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.46 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.48 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.56 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.57 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.61 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.67 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.69 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.71 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.74 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.80 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.88 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.88 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.89 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.05 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.12 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.43 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.52 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.54 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.57 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.98 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 4.54 | 3.60 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 5.32 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 82.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 73.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 68.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 79.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |