Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.20 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.27 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.48 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 1.59 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 1.62 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 1.78 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.90 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 1.96 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 1.99 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 1.99 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.03 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.03 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.04 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.06 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.10 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.18 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.20 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.30 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.30 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.33 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.37 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.38 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.44 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.46 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.46 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.49 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.52 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.53 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.55 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.56 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.69 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.75 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.77 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.83 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.84 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.88 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.96 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.98 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.04 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 3.04 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.23 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.41 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 3.46 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.61 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 3.83 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 3.94 | 3.24 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 3.96 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 4.01 | 3.27 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 4.57 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 4.58 | 4.19 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 96.0°F | 92.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 101.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 83.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |