Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.51 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.68 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 1.78 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 1.86 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.86 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.88 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 1.98 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.99 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 1.99 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 1.99 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.06 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.07 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.11 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.11 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.14 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 2.19 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.19 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.19 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.20 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.21 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.31 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.32 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.34 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.34 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.37 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.41 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.50 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.57 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.57 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.57 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.57 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.58 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.59 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.62 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.67 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.70 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.78 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.81 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.81 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.86 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 2.93 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 3.03 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.10 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.14 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.17 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.22 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.24 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 3.41 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.52 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.58 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 64.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 98.0°F | 100.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 65.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 70.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 62.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |