Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
53903
2587392 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.48°
8620 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-28 03:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Lansing MI 172 1.72 0.71 48.0
Saint Paul MN 172 1.73 -0.18 48.0
Richmond VA 172 1.75 0.03 48.0
Des Moines IA 173 1.80 0.10 48.0
Columbus OH 172 1.94 -1.66 48.0
Annapolis MD 173 1.97 0.86 48.0
Frankfort KY 173 1.98 0.90 48.0
Madison WI 172 2.01 0.99 48.0
Sacramento CA 173 2.03 0.57 48.0
Jefferson City MO 172 2.03 1.10 48.0
Pierre SD 172 2.07 1.13 48.0
Atlanta GA 173 2.08 1.25 48.0
Charleston WV 172 2.09 1.06 48.0
Juneau AK 173 2.18 1.18 48.0
Tallahassee FL 173 2.18 0.37 48.0
Austin TX 172 2.18 1.69 48.0
Trenton NJ 172 2.19 1.08 48.0
Boston MA 173 2.24 0.47 48.0
Indianapolis IN 173 2.26 -1.66 48.0
Honolulu HI 173 2.27 -2.06 48.0
Augusta ME 172 2.27 -1.63 48.0
Providence RI 172 2.29 0.27 48.0
Nashville TN 172 2.30 0.47 48.0
Lincoln NE 172 2.33 0.89 48.0
Hartford CT 173 2.35 -0.46 48.0
Topeka KS 173 2.35 1.09 48.0
Harrisburg PA 172 2.35 0.38 48.0
Albany NY 172 2.36 -0.76 48.0
Concord NH 172 2.48 -0.59 48.0
Montpelier VT 172 2.49 1.47 48.0
Salem OR 172 2.50 0.31 48.0
Raleigh NC 172 2.55 0.66 48.0
Phoenix AZ 173 2.58 -1.42 48.0
Dover DE 173 2.66 -0.82 48.0
Carson City NV 172 2.71 -1.74 48.0
Santa Fe NM 172 2.73 -0.09 48.0
Bismarck ND 172 2.85 -0.44 48.0
Montgomery AL 173 2.87 -1.16 48.0
Springfield IL 173 2.89 2.17 48.0
Boise ID 173 2.91 -2.10 48.0
Cheyenne WY 172 2.91 -0.34 48.0
Columbia SC 172 2.94 0.17 48.0
Denver CO 173 2.98 0.90 48.0
Helena MT 172 3.06 -0.22 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 172 3.13 0.96 48.0
Jackson MS 172 3.19 1.81 48.0
Olympia WA 172 3.21 -1.84 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 172 3.30 -0.26 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 173 3.76 2.94 48.0
Little Rock AR 173 3.90 0.93 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-27 23:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 20:00 AKDT Juneau AK 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 21:00 MST Phoenix AZ 103.0°F 105.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 CDT Little Rock AR 76.0°F 82.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 21:00 PDT Sacramento CA 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 MDT Denver CO 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 EDT Hartford CT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 18:00 HST Honolulu HI 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 MDT Boise ID 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 CDT Springfield IL 70.0°F 64.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 CDT Des Moines IA 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 CDT Topeka KS 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 EDT Frankfort KY 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 CDT Montgomery AL 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 19:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 20:00 MST Phoenix AZ 105.0°F 107.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 85.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 20:00 PDT Sacramento CA 87.0°F 83.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 21:00 MDT Denver CO 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 EDT Hartford CT 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 17:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 21:00 MDT Boise ID 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 CDT Springfield IL 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 CDT Des Moines IA 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 CDT Topeka KS 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 22:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 EDT Augusta ME 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0