Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.29 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.34 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 1.56 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 1.63 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 1.67 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.75 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 1.75 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.76 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 1.84 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.97 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.02 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.07 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.26 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.27 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.27 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.31 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.37 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.46 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.47 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.48 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.49 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.58 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.61 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.61 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.61 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.62 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.71 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.74 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.78 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.78 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.82 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.83 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.91 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.92 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.95 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.97 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.97 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.02 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 3.04 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.09 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.10 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.13 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.24 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.28 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 3.42 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.47 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 3.71 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.74 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.87 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 4.33 | -3.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |