Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
87533
4201632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
8650 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-25 04:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Boise ID 173 1.74 -0.46 48.0
Albany NY 173 1.75 -0.57 48.0
Trenton NJ 173 1.79 -0.80 48.0
Little Rock AR 173 1.84 1.09 48.0
Honolulu HI 173 1.92 -1.87 48.0
Juneau AK 173 2.05 -1.39 48.0
Dover DE 173 2.06 -0.57 48.0
Helena MT 173 2.08 0.61 48.0
Richmond VA 173 2.08 -0.20 48.0
Tallahassee FL 173 2.13 0.81 48.0
Jackson MS 173 2.13 1.23 48.0
Boston MA 173 2.14 -1.09 48.0
Saint Paul MN 173 2.17 0.08 48.0
Augusta ME 173 2.20 -1.13 48.0
Lansing MI 173 2.24 0.85 48.0
Pierre SD 173 2.25 0.11 48.0
Bismarck ND 173 2.27 -0.16 48.0
Des Moines IA 173 2.32 -0.18 48.0
Austin TX 173 2.34 1.65 48.0
Indianapolis IN 173 2.37 1.29 48.0
Annapolis MD 173 2.39 -0.01 48.0
Harrisburg PA 173 2.39 -1.38 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 173 2.43 0.61 48.0
Madison WI 173 2.46 1.10 48.0
Montgomery AL 173 2.53 1.68 48.0
Columbus OH 173 2.54 1.76 48.0
Atlanta GA 173 2.62 2.13 48.0
Jefferson City MO 173 2.65 -0.09 48.0
Hartford CT 173 2.67 -1.77 48.0
Springfield IL 173 2.68 1.42 48.0
Columbia SC 173 2.68 0.94 48.0
Providence RI 173 2.73 -2.23 48.0
Topeka KS 173 2.75 -1.97 48.0
Santa Fe NM 173 2.76 0.94 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 173 2.78 -0.54 48.0
Frankfort KY 173 2.84 1.23 48.0
Cheyenne WY 173 2.90 -0.87 48.0
Concord NH 173 2.91 -0.98 48.0
Carson City NV 173 2.98 2.20 48.0
Charleston WV 173 3.04 2.15 48.0
Lincoln NE 173 3.10 -1.97 48.0
Sacramento CA 173 3.13 2.89 48.0
Denver CO 173 3.16 1.11 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 173 3.19 2.92 48.0
Raleigh NC 173 3.48 0.01 48.0
Montpelier VT 173 3.61 2.48 48.0
Olympia WA 173 3.72 2.68 48.0
Salem OR 173 3.80 2.66 48.0
Nashville TN 173 3.86 3.14 48.0
Phoenix AZ 173 3.88 -1.87 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Montgomery AL 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 20:00 AKDT Juneau AK 47.0°F 44.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 21:00 MST Phoenix AZ 88.0°F 81.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Little Rock AR 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 21:00 PDT Sacramento CA 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 22:00 MDT Denver CO 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Hartford CT 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Dover DE 58.0°F 61.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Atlanta GA 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 18:00 HST Honolulu HI 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 22:00 MDT Boise ID 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Springfield IL 65.0°F 59.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Des Moines IA 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Topeka KS 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Frankfort KY 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 72.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Augusta ME 47.0°F 49.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Annapolis MD 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Boston MA 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Lansing MI 52.0°F 53.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 22:00 MDT Helena MT 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Lincoln NE 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 21:00 PDT Carson City NV 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Concord NH 46.0°F 44.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Trenton NJ 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 22:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Albany NY 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Raleigh NC 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Bismarck ND 61.0°F 57.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Columbus OH 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 23:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-24 21:00 PDT Salem OR 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Providence RI 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 00:00 EDT Columbia SC 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0