Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
38383
1842432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-15 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 174 1.15 0.53 48.0
Jackson MS 174 1.51 0.86 48.0
Providence RI 174 1.57 0.15 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 174 1.70 0.03 48.0
Salem OR 174 1.81 0.12 48.0
Hartford CT 174 1.92 0.86 48.0
Concord NH 174 1.92 -0.57 48.0
Albany NY 174 1.95 -0.11 48.0
Madison WI 174 2.01 0.53 48.0
Honolulu HI 174 2.02 -1.98 48.0
Augusta ME 174 2.03 0.43 48.0
Lansing MI 174 2.05 0.20 48.0
Boston MA 174 2.06 -0.61 48.0
Raleigh NC 174 2.13 0.53 48.0
Boise ID 174 2.14 0.67 48.0
Little Rock AR 174 2.17 0.20 48.0
Topeka KS 174 2.20 0.87 48.0
Trenton NJ 174 2.24 0.83 48.0
Richmond VA 174 2.28 0.48 48.0
Helena MT 174 2.30 0.64 48.0
Tallahassee FL 174 2.32 0.01 48.0
Phoenix AZ 174 2.36 0.05 48.0
Des Moines IA 174 2.39 -0.29 48.0
Jefferson City MO 174 2.48 2.01 48.0
Montpelier VT 174 2.51 1.42 48.0
Dover DE 174 2.52 0.27 48.0
Atlanta GA 174 2.53 1.70 48.0
Nashville TN 174 2.53 2.21 48.0
Carson City NV 174 2.57 -0.82 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 174 2.59 -0.68 48.0
Harrisburg PA 174 2.65 0.72 48.0
Lincoln NE 174 2.76 0.90 48.0
Denver CO 174 2.79 0.70 48.0
Olympia WA 174 2.79 -0.14 48.0
Saint Paul MN 174 2.81 -0.82 48.0
Columbia SC 174 2.85 1.64 48.0
Santa Fe NM 174 2.90 -1.95 48.0
Annapolis MD 174 2.92 1.07 48.0
Juneau AK 174 2.93 -0.72 48.0
Springfield IL 174 2.95 1.92 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 174 3.07 1.39 48.0
Montgomery AL 174 3.09 -0.81 48.0
Bismarck ND 174 3.10 -1.29 48.0
Cheyenne WY 174 3.21 0.48 48.0
Pierre SD 174 3.28 0.57 48.0
Columbus OH 174 3.97 2.82 48.0
Frankfort KY 174 4.10 3.59 48.0
Sacramento CA 174 4.11 3.97 48.0
Charleston WV 174 4.16 2.31 48.0
Indianapolis IN 174 4.40 1.59 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 95.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 66.0°F 62.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 23:00 MDT Denver CO 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Dover DE 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 82.0°F 75.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 23:00 MDT Boise ID 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 82.0°F 76.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 23:00 MDT Helena MT 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 22:00 PDT Salem OR 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0