Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.55 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.67 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.85 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.86 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.86 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 1.90 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.90 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 1.90 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 1.92 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 1.97 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 1.97 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.03 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.11 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.12 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.19 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.25 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.29 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.31 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.32 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.33 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.33 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.36 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.38 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.47 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.47 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.52 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.52 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.56 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.59 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.66 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.69 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.70 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.75 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.77 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.78 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.83 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 2.83 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.92 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.92 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.99 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.01 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.03 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.06 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.09 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.34 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.48 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 3.57 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.79 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.95 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |