Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 192 | 1.69 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 1.76 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 1.83 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 1.98 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 2.02 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.14 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.17 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.18 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.23 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.23 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.26 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.28 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.31 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.31 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.36 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.38 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.39 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.40 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.44 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.44 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.47 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.49 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.51 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.54 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.59 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.62 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.63 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.64 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.64 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.64 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.70 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.70 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.71 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.77 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.82 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.82 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.89 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.90 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.90 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.98 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.02 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 3.04 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.05 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.13 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.30 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 3.40 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.41 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.56 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.88 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 4.08 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 87.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 72.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 88.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 76.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 68.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |