Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 1.58 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 1.67 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.67 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.75 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 1.77 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 1.86 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 1.88 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 1.90 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 1.92 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.95 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 1.98 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.01 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.02 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.02 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.03 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.06 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.06 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.09 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.11 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.13 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.14 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.15 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.16 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.17 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.21 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.26 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 2.35 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.39 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.42 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.45 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.56 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.64 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.67 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.69 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.72 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.78 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.78 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.83 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.85 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.87 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.87 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.90 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.90 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 3.01 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.03 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.11 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.17 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.23 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 3.76 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 3.97 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 107.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |