Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.12 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.54 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 1.68 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 1.68 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 1.88 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 1.92 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 1.94 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 1.96 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 1.98 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.01 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 2.04 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.06 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.13 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.13 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.14 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.20 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.22 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.31 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.39 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.39 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.40 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.40 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.45 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.45 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.47 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.47 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.51 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.52 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.56 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.59 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 2.63 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.69 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.69 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.74 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.79 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.84 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.93 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.94 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 2.97 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.11 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.21 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.27 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 3.30 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.30 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.30 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 3.79 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 3.85 | 3.27 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 3.88 | 3.62 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 3.88 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 4.41 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 103.0°F | 103.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 101.0°F | 100.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 65.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 93.0°F | 86.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 81.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 95.0°F | 87.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 99.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |