Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.12 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.30 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 1.56 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 1.56 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.70 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 1.80 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.84 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 1.86 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 1.96 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.00 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.09 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.12 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.26 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.28 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.31 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.32 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.33 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.35 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.42 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.47 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.52 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.53 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.57 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.60 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.61 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.62 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.63 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.66 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.68 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.71 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.72 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.73 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.85 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.87 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.90 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.93 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.00 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.05 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 3.10 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.17 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.18 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.18 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.20 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.30 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.44 | -3.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.45 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 3.55 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.79 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 4.18 | -3.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 94.0°F | 82.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 79.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 62.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 68.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 81.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 95.0°F | 87.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |