Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.64 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.83 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.84 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.87 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 1.91 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.97 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.01 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.01 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.05 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.09 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.15 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.15 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.18 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.20 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.23 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.25 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.27 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.31 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.32 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.39 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.45 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.47 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.50 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.51 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.52 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.53 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.55 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.66 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.66 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.66 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.67 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.69 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.72 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.74 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.75 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.75 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.76 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.77 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.79 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.84 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.86 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.89 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.96 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.15 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.29 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.46 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.51 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 3.53 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.72 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 4.11 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-23 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |