Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.22 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.46 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.67 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 1.78 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.82 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 1.83 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.88 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 1.90 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.91 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.05 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.10 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.11 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.20 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.22 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.23 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.23 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.25 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.31 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.34 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.35 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.37 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.38 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.42 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.43 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.44 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.45 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.45 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.46 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.49 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.52 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.54 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.58 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.59 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.63 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.66 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.68 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.71 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.78 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.78 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.85 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.12 | -2.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.36 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.41 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.54 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.63 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.69 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.74 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.75 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.96 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.97 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 68.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |