Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.41 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.48 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 1.60 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.60 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 1.86 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.90 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 1.94 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.98 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.07 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.12 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.13 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.13 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.16 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.18 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.19 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.19 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.24 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.32 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.39 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.51 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.52 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.56 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.56 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.59 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.60 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.63 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.69 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.69 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.70 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.71 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.76 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.76 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.78 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.82 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.84 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.86 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.89 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.91 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.91 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.96 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.96 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.06 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 3.13 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.13 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 3.20 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.26 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.62 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 3.74 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.97 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.99 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 90.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 58.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |