Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 182 | 1.00 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.53 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.58 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 1.62 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 1.77 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 1.89 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.90 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.93 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 1.98 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.00 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.03 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.20 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.21 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.25 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.29 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.30 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.30 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.31 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.31 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.43 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.43 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.45 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.47 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.49 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.50 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.57 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.63 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.68 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.71 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.79 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.80 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.83 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.85 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.91 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.91 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.91 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.92 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.97 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.10 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 3.15 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.19 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.21 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.26 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.31 | -3.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.42 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.46 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.51 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.60 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.71 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 4.14 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 46.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 54.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 48.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 41.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |