Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
68833
3304032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.57°
9150 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-09 14:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 183 1.13 0.40 48.0
Indianapolis IN 183 1.26 -0.50 48.0
Jefferson City MO 183 1.48 0.36 48.0
Sacramento CA 183 1.55 -0.10 48.0
Honolulu HI 183 1.67 -0.94 48.0
Albany NY 183 1.80 -0.62 48.0
Nashville TN 183 1.86 0.63 48.0
Columbus OH 183 1.87 0.46 48.0
Salem OR 183 1.98 0.75 48.0
Raleigh NC 183 1.99 0.08 48.0
Augusta ME 183 2.11 -0.56 48.0
Austin TX 183 2.11 -0.36 48.0
Columbia SC 183 2.14 0.21 48.0
Topeka KS 183 2.21 1.34 48.0
Lansing MI 183 2.26 1.18 48.0
Jackson MS 183 2.34 1.70 48.0
Cheyenne WY 183 2.34 -0.78 48.0
Hartford CT 183 2.36 -0.87 48.0
Saint Paul MN 183 2.39 0.50 48.0
Charleston WV 183 2.44 2.06 48.0
Lincoln NE 183 2.56 2.01 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 183 2.56 1.53 48.0
Boston MA 183 2.58 0.01 48.0
Providence RI 183 2.60 -1.97 48.0
Atlanta GA 183 2.61 1.23 48.0
Frankfort KY 183 2.61 1.46 48.0
Madison WI 183 2.64 1.97 48.0
Harrisburg PA 183 2.65 0.80 48.0
Annapolis MD 183 2.66 0.56 48.0
Des Moines IA 183 2.67 1.48 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 183 2.69 1.62 48.0
Trenton NJ 183 2.70 -0.48 48.0
Springfield IL 183 2.77 2.57 48.0
Concord NH 183 2.79 -1.01 48.0
Richmond VA 183 2.79 1.21 48.0
Montpelier VT 183 2.83 0.05 48.0
Dover DE 183 2.89 -0.46 48.0
Helena MT 183 3.03 -1.00 48.0
Olympia WA 183 3.07 -0.11 48.0
Juneau AK 183 3.11 -0.13 48.0
Carson City NV 183 3.15 -1.66 48.0
Montgomery AL 183 3.20 0.44 48.0
Denver CO 183 3.20 0.27 48.0
Bismarck ND 183 3.24 0.89 48.0
Tallahassee FL 183 3.26 -1.99 48.0
Phoenix AZ 183 3.45 -3.21 48.0
Santa Fe NM 183 3.47 -2.34 48.0
Boise ID 183 3.57 1.32 48.0
Pierre SD 183 3.85 1.60 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 183 4.22 -3.87 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 06:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 55.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 MST Phoenix AZ 88.0°F 93.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Little Rock AR 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 PDT Sacramento CA 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 MDT Denver CO 64.0°F 57.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Hartford CT 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 04:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 MDT Boise ID 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Springfield IL 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Des Moines IA 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Frankfort KY 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 53.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Boston MA 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Jackson MS 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 MDT Helena MT 49.0°F 42.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Lincoln NE 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 PDT Carson City NV 62.0°F 50.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 60.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Trenton NJ 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 78.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Bismarck ND 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Columbus OH 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 09:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 PDT Salem OR 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 10:00 EDT Columbia SC 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0