Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.49 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.54 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 1.59 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 1.76 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.88 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 1.89 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.02 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.03 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.06 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.06 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.07 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.11 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.13 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 2.14 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.18 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.23 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.23 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.24 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.26 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.27 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.34 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.35 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.38 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.39 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.41 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.44 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.48 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.49 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.54 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.58 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.59 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.61 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.69 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.74 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.75 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.77 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.80 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 2.81 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.87 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.87 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.89 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.92 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.96 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.97 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.24 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.25 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.29 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.59 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.60 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 3.60 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 94.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |