Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 1.55 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.80 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 1.82 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 1.97 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 1.98 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.99 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.10 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.13 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 2.14 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.14 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.15 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.15 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.24 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.28 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.31 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.32 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.33 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.35 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.35 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.40 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.49 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.53 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.53 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.56 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.57 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.57 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.68 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.70 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.71 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.71 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.75 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.75 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.78 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.80 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.82 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.82 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.85 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.90 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.90 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 3.03 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.16 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.20 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.23 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 3.26 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.27 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.33 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.52 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.90 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.93 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 4.11 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 92.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 61.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 73.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |