Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.13 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.35 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.57 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.59 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 1.63 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 1.65 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 1.73 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 1.82 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.90 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.00 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.01 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.03 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.04 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.09 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.13 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.19 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.21 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.26 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.27 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.31 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.32 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.39 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.45 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.46 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.47 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.49 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.51 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.52 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.55 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.60 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.63 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.63 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.67 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.72 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.75 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.78 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.82 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.84 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.96 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.96 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 3.05 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 3.22 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.39 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.41 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.60 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.66 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 3.74 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 3.79 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 4.15 | 3.71 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 4.51 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 103.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 102.0°F | 104.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 74.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 74.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 101.0°F | 97.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 88.0°F | 76.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 102.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 69.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |