Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.73 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 1.77 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.85 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.87 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.90 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 1.92 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 1.93 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 1.93 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 1.97 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.01 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.02 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.07 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.12 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.14 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 2.21 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.22 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.28 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.28 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.29 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.32 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.32 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.34 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.36 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.39 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.40 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.41 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.46 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.49 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.51 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.52 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.53 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.59 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.60 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.61 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.64 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.72 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.79 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.81 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.81 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.87 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.90 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.97 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.99 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.05 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.14 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.23 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.33 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.51 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.58 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 4.01 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 112.0°F | 110.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 96.0°F | 91.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 84.0°F | 90.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 68.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 89.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 75.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |