Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.51 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.68 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.86 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 1.86 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 1.89 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.89 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.90 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 1.92 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.95 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 1.97 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.00 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.07 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.10 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.14 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.16 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.27 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.28 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.29 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.29 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.30 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.31 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.34 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.36 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.36 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.43 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.44 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.47 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.49 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.55 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.61 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.63 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.68 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.70 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.72 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.76 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.78 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.79 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.82 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.87 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 2.98 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.01 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.02 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.05 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.06 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 3.10 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.31 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.46 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.50 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.76 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.88 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 94.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 96.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 75.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 76.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 101.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |