Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.37 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.45 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 1.54 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 1.56 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 1.60 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 1.75 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.75 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.78 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.81 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 1.82 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 1.85 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 1.96 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.22 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.22 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.24 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.32 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.44 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.46 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.49 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.50 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.51 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.51 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.52 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.57 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.60 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.61 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.63 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.75 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.81 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.82 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.87 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.89 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.92 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.96 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.97 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.05 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 3.05 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.06 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.07 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.10 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.13 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 3.16 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 3.17 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 3.32 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.36 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.40 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.46 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.66 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.68 | -2.80 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.69 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 88.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 73.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |