Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 186 | 0.94 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.63 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.65 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 1.68 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 1.70 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.72 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 1.88 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.92 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 1.92 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.01 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.03 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.04 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.08 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.16 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.18 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.21 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.26 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.31 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.33 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.41 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.46 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.47 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.48 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.49 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.51 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.53 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.54 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.59 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.65 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.66 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.68 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.75 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.78 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.83 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.84 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.85 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.87 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.90 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.92 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 3.00 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.24 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.30 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.34 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.47 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.63 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.65 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.65 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.66 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.85 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 4.18 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |