Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.21 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.22 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 1.51 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 1.72 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 1.74 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 1.76 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.81 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 1.86 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 1.90 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 1.92 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.01 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.06 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.07 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.08 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.08 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.17 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.30 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.30 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.35 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.36 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.41 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.41 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.45 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.48 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.49 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.49 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.50 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.52 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.55 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.55 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.58 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.59 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.68 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 2.83 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.87 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.88 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 3.01 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.17 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.17 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.21 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 3.36 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.38 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 3.52 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.61 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 3.66 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 3.84 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 3.92 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 4.04 | 3.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 4.62 | 4.08 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 4.64 | 3.68 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |