Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 175 | 1.75 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.87 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.03 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.05 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.07 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.13 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.14 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.15 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.15 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.21 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.21 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.21 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.21 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.27 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.29 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.30 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.32 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.41 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.43 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.43 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.43 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.47 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.50 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.51 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.52 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.57 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.59 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.62 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.62 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.64 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.66 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.66 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.67 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.72 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.76 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.79 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.88 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.99 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.03 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 3.09 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.11 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.23 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.27 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.42 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 3.54 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.56 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 3.59 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.89 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.99 | 3.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 4.39 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 65.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 62.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |