Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
45133
2166432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.54°
9450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-20 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 189 1.23 0.57 48.0
Jackson MS 189 1.32 0.63 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 1.44 0.42 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 1.59 0.65 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 1.69 -0.40 48.0
Richmond VA 189 1.78 -0.76 48.0
Lansing MI 189 1.83 0.02 48.0
Providence RI 189 1.89 -0.18 48.0
Dover DE 189 1.97 -0.23 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 1.99 -0.74 48.0
Hartford CT 189 2.10 0.29 48.0
Augusta ME 189 2.12 -0.26 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 2.19 -0.14 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 2.19 0.00 48.0
Albany NY 189 2.20 0.16 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 2.23 -0.19 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 2.26 0.56 48.0
Charleston WV 189 2.29 0.44 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 2.32 0.00 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.33 0.04 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 2.33 0.95 48.0
Madison WI 189 2.37 1.01 48.0
Boise ID 189 2.41 -1.03 48.0
Columbus OH 189 2.42 0.80 48.0
Concord NH 189 2.45 -0.85 48.0
Salem OR 189 2.46 0.68 48.0
Nashville TN 189 2.47 2.17 48.0
Carson City NV 189 2.58 -1.30 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 2.60 0.39 48.0
Helena MT 189 2.62 -0.43 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 2.71 -0.06 48.0
Pierre SD 189 2.72 -1.59 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 2.80 1.13 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.81 2.29 48.0
Indianapolis IN 189 2.90 1.98 48.0
Topeka KS 189 2.93 1.95 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 2.95 1.56 48.0
Columbia SC 189 2.96 2.47 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 2.98 2.48 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 3.07 -2.19 48.0
Olympia WA 189 3.12 -0.61 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 3.17 2.65 48.0
Juneau AK 189 3.25 0.90 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 3.41 1.78 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 3.41 -1.04 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 3.43 -2.05 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 3.56 -1.08 48.0
Cheyenne WY 189 3.59 0.69 48.0
Springfield IL 189 3.65 3.15 48.0
Denver CO 189 3.68 1.12 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 106.0°F 101.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 98.0°F 104.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 14:00 MDT Denver CO 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Dover DE 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 14:00 MDT Boise ID 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 97.0°F 94.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 83.0°F 88.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Boston MA 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 82.0°F 76.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 99.0°F 98.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 14:00 MDT Helena MT 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Concord NH 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Albany NY 78.0°F 70.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 93.0°F 87.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 101.0°F 103.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 13:00 PDT Salem OR 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 77.0°F 70.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Providence RI 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-20 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 97.0°F 88.0°F +9.0° 48.0