Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
71033
3409632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-11 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 179 1.27 -0.09 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 1.58 -0.39 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 1.79 0.36 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 1.83 -1.09 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 1.88 -0.34 48.0
Austin TX 179 1.90 0.25 48.0
Albany NY 179 1.91 -0.78 48.0
Columbus OH 179 1.95 0.78 48.0
Lansing MI 179 2.08 1.21 48.0
Richmond VA 179 2.08 0.18 48.0
Nashville TN 179 2.09 -0.01 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.17 -0.57 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 2.18 -0.36 48.0
Jackson MS 179 2.20 1.37 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 2.25 0.57 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.27 0.14 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 2.28 -1.99 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 2.28 -0.49 48.0
Salem OR 179 2.28 0.09 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 2.28 -1.20 48.0
Charleston WV 179 2.30 1.68 48.0
Augusta ME 179 2.31 -0.43 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.40 -1.51 48.0
Providence RI 179 2.46 -2.26 48.0
Topeka KS 179 2.49 1.70 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.50 1.16 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.63 1.17 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 2.63 1.01 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.64 -2.05 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 2.68 1.63 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 2.83 -0.91 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.83 -0.35 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 2.88 1.59 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 2.88 1.60 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 2.91 -2.42 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 2.93 1.42 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 3.01 0.77 48.0
Helena MT 179 3.02 -1.70 48.0
Concord NH 179 3.02 -0.54 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 3.06 1.25 48.0
Juneau AK 179 3.09 0.12 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 3.18 0.78 48.0
Carson City NV 179 3.18 -0.93 48.0
Olympia WA 179 3.28 0.15 48.0
Denver CO 179 3.40 0.82 48.0
Boise ID 179 3.45 1.02 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 3.47 -2.58 48.0
Pierre SD 179 3.63 2.41 48.0
Springfield IL 179 3.67 3.34 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 3.70 -2.77 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 49.0°F 40.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 95.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 MDT Denver CO 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 61.0°F 66.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Dover DE 69.0°F 77.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 MDT Boise ID 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 62.0°F 68.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Boston MA 62.0°F 67.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 MDT Helena MT 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Concord NH 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Albany NY 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 74.0°F 68.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 03:00 PDT Salem OR 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 64.0°F 72.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Providence RI 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-11 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0