Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.50 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.80 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.84 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.88 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 1.94 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 1.98 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 1.98 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 1.99 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.10 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.16 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.23 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.26 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.26 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.30 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.30 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.32 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.34 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.40 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.40 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.45 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.45 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.53 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.55 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.57 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.59 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.59 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.61 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.64 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.69 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 2.71 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.74 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.74 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.74 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.76 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.83 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.84 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.84 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.87 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.93 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.94 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.95 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.01 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 3.16 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.27 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.42 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.56 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.61 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.65 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 3.69 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.80 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 77.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 60.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |