Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 177 | 0.98 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 1.73 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 1.77 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 1.93 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 1.94 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.01 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.03 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.16 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.17 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.23 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.25 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.25 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.29 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 2.31 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.31 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.32 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.36 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.36 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.37 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.40 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.41 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 2.42 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.46 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.48 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.55 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.56 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.60 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.62 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.63 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.67 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.70 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.71 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.73 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.74 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.74 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.81 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 2.88 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.90 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.99 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 3.01 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.02 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.14 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.14 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.60 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.67 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 3.75 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 4.03 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 4.05 | 3.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 4.12 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 4.37 | 4.33 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-13 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |