Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
41983
2015232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-18 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 174 1.21 0.39 48.0
Jackson MS 174 1.24 0.68 48.0
Little Rock AR 174 1.55 -0.22 48.0
Hartford CT 174 1.75 0.97 48.0
Providence RI 174 1.78 0.32 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 174 1.79 0.19 48.0
Honolulu HI 174 1.83 -0.82 48.0
Lansing MI 174 1.87 -0.07 48.0
Madison WI 174 1.89 0.13 48.0
Nashville TN 174 1.95 1.51 48.0
Augusta ME 174 1.98 0.47 48.0
Concord NH 174 1.99 -0.35 48.0
Albany NY 174 2.02 0.07 48.0
Boston MA 174 2.05 0.10 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 174 2.07 0.30 48.0
Raleigh NC 174 2.14 1.17 48.0
Richmond VA 174 2.28 0.48 48.0
Salem OR 174 2.32 1.13 48.0
Boise ID 174 2.34 -0.53 48.0
Lincoln NE 174 2.38 0.29 48.0
Atlanta GA 174 2.41 1.58 48.0
Tallahassee FL 174 2.42 0.28 48.0
Trenton NJ 174 2.46 1.14 48.0
Saint Paul MN 174 2.47 -1.02 48.0
Helena MT 174 2.47 -0.10 48.0
Dover DE 174 2.49 0.63 48.0
Harrisburg PA 174 2.51 0.13 48.0
Pierre SD 174 2.52 -1.28 48.0
Carson City NV 174 2.55 -1.02 48.0
Olympia WA 174 2.55 -0.06 48.0
Sacramento CA 174 2.57 1.13 48.0
Des Moines IA 174 2.58 0.53 48.0
Topeka KS 174 2.66 1.60 48.0
Jefferson City MO 174 2.84 2.44 48.0
Montpelier VT 174 2.86 0.92 48.0
Annapolis MD 174 2.91 0.60 48.0
Phoenix AZ 174 2.96 -1.30 48.0
Denver CO 174 3.14 0.94 48.0
Santa Fe NM 174 3.23 -2.15 48.0
Bismarck ND 174 3.24 -2.35 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 174 3.33 -1.45 48.0
Columbia SC 174 3.41 3.19 48.0
Montgomery AL 174 3.63 0.57 48.0
Cheyenne WY 174 3.66 -0.05 48.0
Juneau AK 174 3.78 -0.06 48.0
Charleston WV 174 3.86 2.46 48.0
Columbus OH 174 3.91 3.04 48.0
Springfield IL 174 4.13 3.61 48.0
Indianapolis IN 174 4.77 3.77 48.0
Frankfort KY 174 4.78 4.32 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 102.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 82.0°F 74.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 MDT Boise ID 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 MDT Helena MT 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Concord NH 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 PDT Salem OR 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Providence RI 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0