Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.67 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.72 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.84 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 1.84 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.85 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 1.90 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 1.92 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.92 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.92 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.03 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.07 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.10 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 2.10 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.10 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.12 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.16 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.21 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.24 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.31 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.34 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.41 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.42 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.43 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.46 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.48 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.48 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.54 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.55 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.56 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.57 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.58 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.58 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.61 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.65 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.66 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.67 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.68 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.73 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.84 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.86 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.93 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 3.00 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 3.03 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.09 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.14 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.21 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.21 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 3.21 | 3.04 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 3.51 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.91 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |