Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.37 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.71 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.81 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 1.90 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 1.91 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 1.96 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.96 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 2.03 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.06 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.08 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.08 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.11 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.13 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.15 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.25 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.31 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.32 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.33 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.34 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.34 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.39 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.39 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.40 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.44 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.46 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.46 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.47 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.50 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.50 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.51 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.53 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.57 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.69 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.71 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.77 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.85 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.86 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.93 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 3.03 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.06 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.14 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.14 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 3.26 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.29 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.36 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.53 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.57 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.71 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.79 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.81 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 91.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 76.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 68.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |