Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.57 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.79 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.82 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 1.87 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.88 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.04 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.08 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.10 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.10 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.14 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.20 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.22 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.32 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.33 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.33 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.34 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.37 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.37 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.40 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.46 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.49 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.49 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.51 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.52 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.57 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.57 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.59 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.63 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.66 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.68 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.68 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.73 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.75 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.82 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.83 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.85 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.86 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.88 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.90 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.93 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.95 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.02 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.12 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.13 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.31 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.42 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.59 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.65 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.68 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.71 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 99.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 110.0°F | 112.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 95.0°F | 105.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 89.0°F | 72.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 103.0°F | 96.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |