Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
41883
2010432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.64°
8600 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-18 03:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 172 1.21 0.41 48.0
Jackson MS 172 1.24 0.70 48.0
Little Rock AR 172 1.56 -0.23 48.0
Hartford CT 172 1.76 0.97 48.0
Providence RI 172 1.79 0.34 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 172 1.80 0.18 48.0
Honolulu HI 172 1.84 -0.82 48.0
Lansing MI 172 1.87 -0.04 48.0
Madison WI 172 1.87 0.09 48.0
Nashville TN 172 1.97 1.53 48.0
Concord NH 172 1.98 -0.31 48.0
Augusta ME 172 1.99 0.49 48.0
Boston MA 172 2.03 0.06 48.0
Albany NY 172 2.03 0.09 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 172 2.09 0.30 48.0
Raleigh NC 172 2.16 1.17 48.0
Richmond VA 172 2.28 0.51 48.0
Salem OR 172 2.31 1.18 48.0
Boise ID 172 2.33 -0.58 48.0
Atlanta GA 172 2.34 1.51 48.0
Lincoln NE 172 2.40 0.28 48.0
Helena MT 172 2.43 -0.03 48.0
Tallahassee FL 172 2.44 0.27 48.0
Saint Paul MN 172 2.47 -1.00 48.0
Trenton NJ 172 2.48 1.16 48.0
Dover DE 172 2.51 0.66 48.0
Pierre SD 172 2.51 -1.34 48.0
Harrisburg PA 172 2.53 0.15 48.0
Carson City NV 172 2.55 -1.00 48.0
Olympia WA 172 2.57 -0.05 48.0
Sacramento CA 172 2.59 1.15 48.0
Des Moines IA 172 2.60 0.55 48.0
Topeka KS 172 2.69 1.62 48.0
Jefferson City MO 172 2.84 2.43 48.0
Montpelier VT 172 2.85 0.97 48.0
Phoenix AZ 172 2.94 -1.26 48.0
Annapolis MD 172 2.94 0.60 48.0
Denver CO 172 3.13 1.00 48.0
Bismarck ND 172 3.23 -2.33 48.0
Santa Fe NM 172 3.25 -2.19 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 172 3.32 -1.41 48.0
Columbia SC 172 3.44 3.23 48.0
Montgomery AL 172 3.67 0.58 48.0
Cheyenne WY 172 3.68 -0.03 48.0
Juneau AK 172 3.83 -0.06 48.0
Charleston WV 172 3.90 2.50 48.0
Columbus OH 172 3.91 3.13 48.0
Springfield IL 172 4.13 3.60 48.0
Indianapolis IN 172 4.81 3.83 48.0
Frankfort KY 172 4.81 4.38 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 19:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 20:00 MST Phoenix AZ 102.0°F 107.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 20:00 PDT Sacramento CA 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 21:00 MDT Denver CO 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Hartford CT 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Dover DE 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Atlanta GA 84.0°F 75.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 17:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 21:00 MDT Boise ID 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Springfield IL 72.0°F 67.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Des Moines IA 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Topeka KS 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Augusta ME 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Jackson MS 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 21:00 MDT Helena MT 71.0°F 78.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Lincoln NE 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 20:00 PDT Carson City NV 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Concord NH 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Trenton NJ 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 21:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Raleigh NC 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Bismarck ND 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Columbus OH 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 22:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 20:00 PDT Salem OR 74.0°F 80.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Providence RI 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 23:00 EDT Columbia SC 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0