Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.10 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.25 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.55 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 1.62 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.69 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 1.77 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 1.79 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.83 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 1.84 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.99 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.05 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.06 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.09 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.13 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.14 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.22 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.24 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.26 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.34 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.35 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.36 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.36 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.40 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.41 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.43 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.52 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 2.56 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.61 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.65 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.66 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.69 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.73 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.80 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.90 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.91 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.94 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 3.06 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 3.15 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.16 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.23 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.32 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 3.37 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.49 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.50 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 3.50 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 3.55 | 3.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.98 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 4.24 | 3.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 4.31 | 3.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 4.58 | 4.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 106.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |