Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 1.72 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 1.73 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 1.76 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.82 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.88 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.96 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 1.99 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.00 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.01 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.04 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.05 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.08 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.12 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.15 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.16 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.19 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.21 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.22 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.23 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.24 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.25 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.26 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.26 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.26 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 2.27 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.29 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.32 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.38 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.42 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.43 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.47 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.53 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.61 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.72 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.79 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.80 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.82 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.82 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.83 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.84 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.90 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.90 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.90 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 3.04 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.08 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.15 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.18 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.18 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 3.62 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 3.71 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 106.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 61.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 92.0°F | 97.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-28 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |