Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
73333
3520032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8850 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-13 08:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 177 1.62 -0.66 48.0
Indianapolis IN 177 1.65 -0.20 48.0
Trenton NJ 177 1.79 -1.38 48.0
Little Rock AR 177 1.82 0.28 48.0
Albany NY 177 1.84 -0.63 48.0
Jackson MS 177 1.88 0.44 48.0
Charleston WV 177 1.89 1.24 48.0
Jefferson City MO 177 1.92 0.30 48.0
Lansing MI 177 1.94 0.50 48.0
Columbus OH 177 1.95 0.13 48.0
Sacramento CA 177 1.97 -0.20 48.0
Annapolis MD 177 1.97 -1.20 48.0
Honolulu HI 177 1.98 -1.20 48.0
Austin TX 177 1.98 0.60 48.0
Saint Paul MN 177 2.10 -0.49 48.0
Hartford CT 177 2.20 -0.88 48.0
Harrisburg PA 177 2.20 -1.22 48.0
Raleigh NC 177 2.21 -1.20 48.0
Nashville TN 177 2.22 -0.37 48.0
Augusta ME 177 2.34 0.05 48.0
Salem OR 177 2.35 -0.46 48.0
Phoenix AZ 177 2.40 -1.58 48.0
Columbia SC 177 2.40 0.11 48.0
Providence RI 177 2.46 -1.88 48.0
Madison WI 177 2.58 0.51 48.0
Atlanta GA 177 2.63 1.32 48.0
Cheyenne WY 177 2.66 0.89 48.0
Bismarck ND 177 2.67 0.73 48.0
Frankfort KY 177 2.77 0.55 48.0
Boise ID 177 2.79 -1.03 48.0
Dover DE 177 2.81 -1.97 48.0
Des Moines IA 177 2.82 1.85 48.0
Boston MA 177 2.82 -1.05 48.0
Concord NH 177 2.86 0.36 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 177 2.88 -1.32 48.0
Montgomery AL 177 2.92 0.68 48.0
Topeka KS 177 3.00 2.27 48.0
Helena MT 177 3.06 -1.02 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 177 3.15 1.27 48.0
Lincoln NE 177 3.15 2.02 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 177 3.16 0.90 48.0
Carson City NV 177 3.20 -0.93 48.0
Tallahassee FL 177 3.24 0.03 48.0
Olympia WA 177 3.33 0.58 48.0
Montpelier VT 177 3.41 1.76 48.0
Denver CO 177 3.48 1.57 48.0
Pierre SD 177 3.54 2.58 48.0
Juneau AK 177 3.56 0.80 48.0
Springfield IL 177 3.71 2.70 48.0
Santa Fe NM 177 3.90 -3.01 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 00:00 AKDT Juneau AK 49.0°F 43.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 01:00 MST Phoenix AZ 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Little Rock AR 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 01:00 PDT Sacramento CA 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 MDT Denver CO 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Hartford CT 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Atlanta GA 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-12 22:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 MDT Boise ID 61.0°F 70.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Springfield IL 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Des Moines IA 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Topeka KS 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Frankfort KY 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Augusta ME 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Boston MA 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Lansing MI 65.0°F 69.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 57.0°F 56.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 MDT Helena MT 50.0°F 52.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Lincoln NE 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 01:00 PDT Carson City NV 57.0°F 66.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Concord NH 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 02:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Albany NY 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Bismarck ND 50.0°F 52.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 03:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 01:00 PDT Salem OR 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Providence RI 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 04:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0