Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.05 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 1.63 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 1.81 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 1.85 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 1.90 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.98 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.01 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.02 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.02 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.05 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.06 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.08 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 2.10 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.14 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.15 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.18 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.20 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.21 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.29 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.30 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.31 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.32 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.42 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.45 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 2.45 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.47 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.49 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.51 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.56 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.58 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.61 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.66 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 2.72 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.78 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.79 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.80 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 2.82 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.86 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.87 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.90 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.94 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.02 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.11 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.53 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 3.53 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 3.81 | 3.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 3.89 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 3.90 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 4.08 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 4.21 | 4.08 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 77.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 100.0°F | 101.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 66.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 82.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 84.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 95.0°F | 86.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 65.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 103.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |