Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.46 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.79 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 1.86 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 1.88 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 1.96 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.96 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 1.98 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 1.99 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.10 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.12 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.26 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.26 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.28 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.31 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.31 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.33 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.33 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.41 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.41 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.43 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.47 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.48 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 2.50 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.56 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.59 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.61 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 2.63 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.65 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 2.71 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.72 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.75 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.75 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.76 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.76 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.80 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 2.83 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.84 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.85 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.89 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.96 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.97 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 3.03 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 3.20 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.25 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.44 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.57 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.62 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.67 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 3.72 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.80 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 80.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-21 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 64.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 77.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |