Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.03 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.43 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.56 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 1.61 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 1.85 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 1.86 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 1.90 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 1.98 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.07 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.11 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.12 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.14 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.15 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.15 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.15 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.17 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.20 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.25 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.26 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.27 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.34 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.39 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.42 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.45 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.50 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.51 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.57 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.58 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.69 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.79 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 2.91 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.95 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.97 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.98 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.99 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 3.03 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.06 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.07 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 3.16 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.18 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.25 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.25 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.32 | -3.23 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 3.41 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.60 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.66 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.89 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.94 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 51.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 53.0°F | -21.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |