Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
68733
3299232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
9050 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-09 12:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Little Rock AR 181 1.13 0.40 48.0
Indianapolis IN 181 1.27 -0.51 48.0
Jefferson City MO 181 1.48 0.38 48.0
Sacramento CA 181 1.55 -0.12 48.0
Honolulu HI 181 1.65 -0.99 48.0
Albany NY 181 1.82 -0.63 48.0
Nashville TN 181 1.87 0.65 48.0
Columbus OH 181 1.88 0.46 48.0
Raleigh NC 181 1.96 0.13 48.0
Salem OR 181 1.96 0.72 48.0
Augusta ME 181 2.06 -0.64 48.0
Austin TX 181 2.12 -0.38 48.0
Columbia SC 181 2.17 0.21 48.0
Topeka KS 181 2.20 1.32 48.0
Lansing MI 181 2.26 1.17 48.0
Cheyenne WY 181 2.33 -0.83 48.0
Jackson MS 181 2.36 1.72 48.0
Hartford CT 181 2.38 -0.89 48.0
Saint Paul MN 181 2.40 0.50 48.0
Charleston WV 181 2.45 2.07 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 181 2.55 1.51 48.0
Boston MA 181 2.56 -0.03 48.0
Lincoln NE 181 2.58 2.04 48.0
Atlanta GA 181 2.62 1.27 48.0
Providence RI 181 2.62 -1.99 48.0
Frankfort KY 181 2.64 1.48 48.0
Annapolis MD 181 2.66 0.59 48.0
Des Moines IA 181 2.67 1.46 48.0
Harrisburg PA 181 2.67 0.81 48.0
Madison WI 181 2.67 1.99 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 181 2.71 1.64 48.0
Trenton NJ 181 2.71 -0.46 48.0
Springfield IL 181 2.75 2.55 48.0
Concord NH 181 2.79 -1.06 48.0
Richmond VA 181 2.79 1.25 48.0
Montpelier VT 181 2.83 0.03 48.0
Dover DE 181 2.90 -0.44 48.0
Olympia WA 181 3.00 -0.22 48.0
Helena MT 181 3.01 -1.07 48.0
Carson City NV 181 3.07 -1.79 48.0
Juneau AK 181 3.12 -0.10 48.0
Denver CO 181 3.18 0.22 48.0
Montgomery AL 181 3.19 0.39 48.0
Bismarck ND 181 3.27 0.89 48.0
Tallahassee FL 181 3.29 -2.02 48.0
Phoenix AZ 181 3.44 -3.19 48.0
Santa Fe NM 181 3.48 -2.40 48.0
Boise ID 181 3.59 1.31 48.0
Pierre SD 181 3.87 1.64 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 181 4.23 -3.95 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 04:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 05:00 MST Phoenix AZ 87.0°F 94.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Little Rock AR 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 05:00 PDT Sacramento CA 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 06:00 MDT Denver CO 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Hartford CT 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Dover DE 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Atlanta GA 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 02:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 06:00 MDT Boise ID 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Springfield IL 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Des Moines IA 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Topeka KS 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Frankfort KY 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Augusta ME 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Annapolis MD 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Boston MA 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Lansing MI 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Jackson MS 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 06:00 MDT Helena MT 45.0°F 43.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Lincoln NE 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 05:00 PDT Carson City NV 59.0°F 52.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Concord NH 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Trenton NJ 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 06:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Raleigh NC 63.0°F 67.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Bismarck ND 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Columbus OH 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 07:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 05:00 PDT Salem OR 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Providence RI 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-09 08:00 EDT Columbia SC 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0