Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.52 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.72 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 1.73 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.80 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 1.84 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 1.85 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 1.86 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.92 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.01 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.01 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.02 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.03 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.04 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.10 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.15 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.17 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.18 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 2.19 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.20 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.21 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.25 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.34 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.36 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.37 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.37 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.43 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.47 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.49 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.55 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.56 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.57 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.57 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.59 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.61 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.63 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.73 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.77 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.77 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.82 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 2.92 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.93 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 3.04 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 3.12 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.15 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.15 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.23 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.27 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 3.42 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.46 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.51 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 49.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |