Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
37933
1820832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.55°
9450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-14 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 189 1.04 0.38 48.0
Providence RI 189 1.62 -0.18 48.0
Albany NY 189 1.80 -0.39 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 1.82 0.28 48.0
Salem OR 189 1.84 0.24 48.0
Topeka KS 189 1.89 0.51 48.0
Hartford CT 189 1.99 0.34 48.0
Jackson MS 189 1.99 1.39 48.0
Boise ID 189 2.01 0.68 48.0
Lansing MI 189 2.03 -0.02 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 2.05 -0.33 48.0
Augusta ME 189 2.05 0.06 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 2.12 -2.08 48.0
Concord NH 189 2.16 -1.02 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 2.17 0.55 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.19 -0.85 48.0
Richmond VA 189 2.20 0.45 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 2.22 -0.72 48.0
Madison WI 189 2.24 -0.06 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 2.30 0.75 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 2.31 0.46 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 2.34 0.34 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 2.35 -1.01 48.0
Carson City NV 189 2.42 -0.64 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 2.46 1.37 48.0
Helena MT 189 2.47 0.92 48.0
Nashville TN 189 2.48 2.15 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.49 1.71 48.0
Dover DE 189 2.51 0.11 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 2.57 2.05 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 2.60 0.78 48.0
Juneau AK 189 2.61 -0.31 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 2.65 -1.19 48.0
Denver CO 189 2.69 0.59 48.0
Springfield IL 189 2.73 1.70 48.0
Columbia SC 189 2.78 1.66 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 2.82 1.22 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 2.84 1.24 48.0
Olympia WA 189 2.84 -0.08 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 2.88 -0.51 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 2.93 -1.95 48.0
Cheyenne WY 189 2.98 0.02 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 3.02 -1.06 48.0
Pierre SD 189 3.53 0.85 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 3.54 1.93 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 3.79 3.22 48.0
Charleston WV 189 3.90 2.15 48.0
Columbus OH 189 3.91 2.61 48.0
Indianapolis IN 189 4.06 1.11 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 4.20 4.07 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 98.0°F 77.0°F +21.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 98.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 101.0°F 101.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 14:00 MDT Denver CO 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Dover DE 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 95.0°F 95.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 94.0°F 91.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 14:00 MDT Boise ID 80.0°F 85.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 92.0°F 83.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 84.0°F 76.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 96.0°F 88.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 92.0°F 86.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Boston MA 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 100.0°F 94.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 14:00 MDT Helena MT 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 88.0°F 83.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Concord NH 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Albany NY 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 95.0°F 98.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 101.0°F 103.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 13:00 PDT Salem OR 78.0°F 70.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Providence RI 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-14 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 99.0°F 90.0°F +9.0° 48.0