Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.20 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.21 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.53 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 1.72 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.74 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 1.76 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.79 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 1.85 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 1.91 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 1.98 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.02 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.03 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.04 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.11 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.13 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.13 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.26 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.32 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.35 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.36 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.38 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.42 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.46 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.46 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.47 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.49 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.50 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.51 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.58 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.58 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.64 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.69 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.70 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.81 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.86 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.92 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.98 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.13 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.14 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.22 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 3.32 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.41 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.48 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.56 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.71 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 3.73 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 3.86 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.99 | 3.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 4.53 | 3.56 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 4.54 | 4.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 107.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 100.0°F | 98.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 94.0°F | 89.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 100.0°F | 100.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 101.0°F | 106.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-18 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |