Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 192 | 1.52 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.66 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 1.85 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.87 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.90 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.90 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.92 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 1.95 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 1.96 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 1.97 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 1.98 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.10 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.15 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.19 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.25 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.25 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.29 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.29 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.31 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.32 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.32 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.34 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.37 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.44 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.45 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.46 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.47 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.55 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.57 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.60 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.65 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.69 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.70 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.75 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.75 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.79 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.81 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.81 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.85 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.96 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.98 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.98 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.04 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.11 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.29 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 3.34 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.42 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.46 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.77 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.85 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 107.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 79.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 105.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 79.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 80.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 80.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |