Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.15 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 1.47 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 1.57 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 1.70 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 1.78 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 1.91 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 1.94 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 1.94 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 2.02 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.04 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.05 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.05 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.15 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.16 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.18 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.19 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.24 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.27 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.28 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.31 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.34 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.39 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.50 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.52 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.52 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.53 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.55 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.57 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.61 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.68 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.77 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.77 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.78 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.83 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.83 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.91 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.91 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.94 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.94 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.06 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.06 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.09 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.21 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.30 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 4.01 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 4.10 | 3.97 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 4.15 | 3.63 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 4.20 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 4.42 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-14 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |