Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.55 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.68 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 1.71 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.71 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 1.75 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 1.84 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.93 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.96 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 1.98 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 1.99 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.01 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.01 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.12 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.21 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.25 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.26 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.29 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.31 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.32 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.33 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.33 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.34 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.36 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.44 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.47 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.54 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.55 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.55 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.56 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.59 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.65 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.70 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.71 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.82 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.84 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.89 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.93 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 3.02 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.05 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 3.15 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 3.15 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.31 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.34 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.44 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.44 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.65 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 3.93 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.99 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 4.25 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 4.41 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 97.0°F | 87.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 100.0°F | 99.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 93.0°F | 84.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 88.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 59.0°F | +15.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-19 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |