Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.47 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.56 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.64 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.67 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 1.78 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.84 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 1.91 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.91 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 1.95 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 1.97 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 1.98 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.01 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.03 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.12 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.17 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.20 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.21 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.24 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.25 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.32 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.33 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.35 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.36 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.42 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.42 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.44 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.49 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.52 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.55 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.61 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.61 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.63 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.64 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.65 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.72 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.84 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.85 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.87 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.95 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.97 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.98 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.98 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.00 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.13 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 3.18 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 3.43 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.44 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 3.64 | 3.19 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.74 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 4.05 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 93.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |