Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 191 | 1.80 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.94 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.95 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.96 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.05 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.10 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.15 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.16 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.19 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.23 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.25 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.26 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.31 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.34 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.36 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.37 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.38 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.39 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.40 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.40 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.41 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.45 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.49 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.50 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.54 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.55 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.58 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.59 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.60 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.69 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.69 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.73 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.74 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.83 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.84 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.90 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.99 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 3.01 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 3.02 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 3.05 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.06 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.19 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.27 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 3.43 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.50 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 3.57 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.85 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.92 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 4.23 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 88.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 59.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 68.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 60.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 57.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |