Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.14 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.35 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.42 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 1.62 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.71 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.71 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.77 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 1.80 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 1.85 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.06 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.06 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.08 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.11 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.13 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.16 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.25 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.25 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.29 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.30 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.35 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.36 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.38 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.40 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.41 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.43 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.47 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.55 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.61 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.65 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.67 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.67 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.69 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.69 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.80 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.90 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.98 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 3.03 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 3.03 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.04 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.10 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 3.12 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.18 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.31 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 3.36 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 3.39 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.41 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.54 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.61 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.69 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.87 | 3.47 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 105.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 63.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-20 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |