Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
58633
2814432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.49°
8550 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-01 02:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 171 1.52 -0.54 48.0
Providence RI 171 1.68 -0.41 48.0
Topeka KS 171 1.75 -0.50 48.0
Indianapolis IN 171 1.80 -0.85 48.0
Columbus OH 171 1.81 -0.96 48.0
Hartford CT 171 1.85 -0.49 48.0
Salem OR 171 1.85 0.24 48.0
Jackson MS 171 1.95 0.42 48.0
Boston MA 171 2.02 -0.42 48.0
Concord NH 171 2.05 0.03 48.0
Nashville TN 171 2.05 0.94 48.0
Columbia SC 171 2.06 -0.04 48.0
Raleigh NC 171 2.11 0.49 48.0
Saint Paul MN 171 2.12 0.48 48.0
Honolulu HI 171 2.16 -2.06 48.0
Jefferson City MO 171 2.17 1.23 48.0
Sacramento CA 171 2.18 1.49 48.0
Frankfort KY 171 2.22 1.56 48.0
Annapolis MD 171 2.27 0.61 48.0
Charleston WV 171 2.28 1.87 48.0
Pierre SD 171 2.30 1.25 48.0
Tallahassee FL 171 2.34 -0.54 48.0
Des Moines IA 171 2.35 1.89 48.0
Lansing MI 171 2.36 1.27 48.0
Atlanta GA 171 2.42 0.45 48.0
Juneau AK 171 2.46 1.55 48.0
Bismarck ND 171 2.46 -0.40 48.0
Albany NY 171 2.48 0.57 48.0
Augusta ME 171 2.58 0.35 48.0
Springfield IL 171 2.60 1.91 48.0
Carson City NV 171 2.61 0.23 48.0
Montpelier VT 171 2.64 1.40 48.0
Dover DE 171 2.65 -0.16 48.0
Little Rock AR 171 2.73 0.91 48.0
Trenton NJ 171 2.73 2.09 48.0
Austin TX 171 2.75 2.20 48.0
Madison WI 171 2.78 1.01 48.0
Helena MT 171 2.84 -0.57 48.0
Montgomery AL 171 2.89 -1.80 48.0
Olympia WA 171 2.91 -0.97 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 171 3.00 -0.33 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 171 3.02 -0.15 48.0
Boise ID 171 3.04 -2.10 48.0
Lincoln NE 171 3.07 1.92 48.0
Cheyenne WY 171 3.09 0.06 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 171 3.24 0.56 48.0
Phoenix AZ 171 3.41 -1.49 48.0
Denver CO 171 3.53 2.01 48.0
Santa Fe NM 171 3.59 -1.96 48.0
Harrisburg PA 171 3.59 -0.78 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Montgomery AL 84.0°F 90.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 18:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 19:00 MST Phoenix AZ 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Little Rock AR 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 19:00 PDT Sacramento CA 72.0°F 67.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 20:00 MDT Denver CO 71.0°F 80.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Hartford CT 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 84.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 16:00 HST Honolulu HI 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 20:00 MDT Boise ID 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Springfield IL 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Des Moines IA 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Topeka KS 90.0°F 83.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Frankfort KY 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Annapolis MD 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Lansing MI 80.0°F 74.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Jackson MS 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 87.0°F 81.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 20:00 MDT Helena MT 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Lincoln NE 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 19:00 PDT Carson City NV 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Concord NH 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Trenton NJ 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 20:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 72.0°F 67.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Albany NY 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Raleigh NC 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Bismarck ND 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Columbus OH 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 21:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 93.0°F 87.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 19:00 PDT Salem OR 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Providence RI 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-31 22:00 EDT Columbia SC 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0