Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 1.72 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 1.76 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 1.91 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 1.95 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 2.09 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.10 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.18 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.21 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.27 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.28 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.32 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.34 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.35 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.35 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.35 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.36 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.37 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.44 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.47 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.48 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.51 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.56 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.58 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.61 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.62 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.64 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.64 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.65 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.66 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.69 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.72 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.72 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.78 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.81 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.83 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.84 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.87 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.92 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 3.01 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 3.02 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.04 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.14 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 3.18 | -2.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.35 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.49 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 3.52 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.60 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.63 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 4.15 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 4.32 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 72.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 56.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |