Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.40 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.49 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.77 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 1.80 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.93 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 1.95 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 1.99 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.01 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.06 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.07 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.09 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.16 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.19 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.22 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.24 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.26 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.29 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.34 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.35 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.37 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.37 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.37 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.40 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.40 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.46 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.51 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.62 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.70 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.75 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.78 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.81 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.82 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.82 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.86 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.89 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 2.90 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.12 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.20 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.22 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 3.25 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 3.30 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.31 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 3.34 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.42 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 3.42 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.49 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.57 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.78 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 3.81 | -3.58 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 4.55 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 35.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 79.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 59.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 47.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 57.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 64.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |