Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.28 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.57 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.69 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.77 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 1.82 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 1.85 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.85 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.86 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 1.89 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.94 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 1.95 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 1.99 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.03 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.07 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.14 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.15 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.22 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.26 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.27 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.30 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.36 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.38 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.42 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.46 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.48 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.48 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.48 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.50 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.58 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.59 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.71 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.72 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.73 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.76 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.78 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.81 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.82 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.83 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.84 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.88 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.89 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 3.13 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.20 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 3.32 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.36 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.37 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.47 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.49 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.64 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.73 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |