Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.17 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.25 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 1.37 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 1.59 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.73 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 1.80 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.88 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 1.88 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.92 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 1.96 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.07 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.12 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.18 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.24 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.30 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.41 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.41 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.46 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.49 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.53 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.54 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.59 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.59 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.62 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.62 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.63 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.67 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.67 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.70 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.70 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.75 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.78 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.81 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.82 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.84 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.93 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.96 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 3.05 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.14 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.16 | -2.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.20 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.20 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.24 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.24 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 3.27 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.30 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.44 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 3.94 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 4.20 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 4.47 | -3.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 104.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 88.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 75.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 88.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |