Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.13 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.30 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 1.43 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 1.53 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.70 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.83 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 1.88 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 1.91 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.94 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.01 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.02 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.21 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.21 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.24 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.29 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.37 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.38 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.40 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.46 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.49 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.49 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.56 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.57 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.61 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.63 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.67 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.72 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.72 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.75 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.76 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.79 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.80 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.82 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.82 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.83 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.91 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.93 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.95 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.99 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.09 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.25 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 3.27 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.31 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.33 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.33 | -3.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.47 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 3.74 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.92 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 4.40 | -4.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 107.0°F | 106.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 73.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 88.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 88.0°F | 74.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 83.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 89.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |