Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.66 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 1.70 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.78 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 1.82 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.88 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.91 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 1.92 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.94 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.96 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.03 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.05 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.06 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.08 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.10 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.17 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.22 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.24 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.29 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.30 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.31 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.38 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.40 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.41 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.41 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.47 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.57 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.59 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.59 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.61 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 2.63 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.65 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.65 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.66 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.69 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.71 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.74 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.77 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.80 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.82 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.83 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.83 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.95 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.96 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 3.01 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.19 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.27 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 3.36 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.40 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.47 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.85 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 98.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 110.0°F | 113.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |