Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.46 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.56 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.63 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 1.78 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.88 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 1.92 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.02 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.03 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.04 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.06 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.11 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.13 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.14 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 2.18 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.19 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.21 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.24 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.24 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.27 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.28 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.31 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.31 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.33 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.36 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.36 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.44 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.46 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.49 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.56 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.58 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.59 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.60 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.67 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.73 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.81 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.81 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.82 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 2.86 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.88 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.91 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.92 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.94 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.98 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 3.01 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.19 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.23 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.24 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.52 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 3.57 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.67 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 98.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 63.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 88.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 90.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |