Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.10 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.56 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 1.61 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.72 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.80 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 1.82 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 1.82 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.89 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.01 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.04 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.06 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.09 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.16 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.18 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.21 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.23 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.24 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.25 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.25 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.28 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.32 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.34 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.34 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.40 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.56 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.64 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.67 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 2.71 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 2.72 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.72 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.73 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 2.84 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.85 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.93 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.96 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.98 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.13 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.14 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.16 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 3.22 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 3.32 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.35 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 3.40 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 3.40 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.52 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.83 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 3.96 | 3.32 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 4.13 | 3.63 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 4.38 | 4.05 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 96.0°F | 91.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 102.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 101.0°F | 103.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 94.0°F | 89.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 96.0°F | 92.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 102.0°F | 102.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-19 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |