Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 170 | 0.99 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 1.74 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 1.74 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.85 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 1.94 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 1.96 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.97 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.13 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.15 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.25 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.26 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.28 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.28 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.31 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 2.33 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 2.35 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 2.36 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.36 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.40 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.40 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.41 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.42 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.44 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.47 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.54 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.58 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.63 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.64 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.65 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.65 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.73 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.73 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.77 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.78 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.78 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.82 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.86 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.88 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.94 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 3.01 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.09 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.16 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.19 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.68 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 3.70 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.72 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 3.96 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 3.99 | 3.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 4.06 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 4.38 | 4.35 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 69.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 69.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 68.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |