Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
73933
3548832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
9450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-13 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 189 1.60 -0.16 48.0
Richmond VA 189 1.62 -0.57 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 1.83 0.39 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 1.83 -1.15 48.0
Charleston WV 189 1.89 1.16 48.0
Jackson MS 189 1.90 0.27 48.0
Austin TX 189 1.90 0.58 48.0
Columbus OH 189 1.94 0.13 48.0
Lansing MI 189 1.95 0.44 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 1.97 -1.08 48.0
Albany NY 189 1.97 -0.38 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 1.98 -1.16 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 1.98 0.39 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 2.00 -0.03 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 2.12 -0.60 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 2.17 -1.16 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 2.19 -1.02 48.0
Nashville TN 189 2.23 -0.32 48.0
Salem OR 189 2.26 -0.38 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 2.32 -1.51 48.0
Columbia SC 189 2.34 0.02 48.0
Hartford CT 189 2.44 -0.44 48.0
Augusta ME 189 2.44 0.28 48.0
Providence RI 189 2.47 -1.65 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.57 1.14 48.0
Madison WI 189 2.58 0.65 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 2.70 0.41 48.0
Cheyenne WY 189 2.71 0.67 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 2.77 0.42 48.0
Dover DE 189 2.78 -1.99 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.79 -0.84 48.0
Boise ID 189 2.86 -1.22 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 2.87 0.66 48.0
Concord NH 189 2.90 0.50 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 3.00 2.09 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 3.04 1.20 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 3.06 0.75 48.0
Helena MT 189 3.10 -1.19 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 3.11 0.06 48.0
Olympia WA 189 3.23 0.66 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 3.26 -1.80 48.0
Topeka KS 189 3.31 2.62 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 3.36 2.30 48.0
Denver CO 189 3.44 1.63 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 3.54 1.86 48.0
Pierre SD 189 3.57 2.31 48.0
Carson City NV 189 3.66 -1.53 48.0
Springfield IL 189 3.69 2.75 48.0
Juneau AK 189 3.82 1.13 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 3.84 -2.68 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 90.0°F 77.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 100.0°F 102.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 MDT Denver CO 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 77.0°F 69.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 MDT Boise ID 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 69.0°F 59.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 83.0°F 73.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 65.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 MDT Helena MT 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 75.0°F 64.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Concord NH 73.0°F 67.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Albany NY 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 62.0°F 69.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 98.0°F 98.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 13:00 PDT Salem OR 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Providence RI 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-13 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 89.0°F 92.0°F -3.0° 48.0