Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.44 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 1.46 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.47 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 1.57 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 1.62 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.76 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 1.79 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.80 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 1.83 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.00 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.02 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.08 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.21 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.24 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.28 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.29 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.41 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.45 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.45 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.49 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.53 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.53 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.54 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.57 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.57 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.61 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.61 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.69 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 2.77 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.82 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.86 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.92 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.92 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.93 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.94 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.95 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.98 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.99 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 3.00 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.01 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 3.12 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.19 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.22 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 3.22 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 3.25 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 3.41 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.55 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.75 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.81 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 4.29 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 93.0°F | 85.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 104.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 93.0°F | 97.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 84.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 96.0°F | 98.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 77.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 95.0°F | 79.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |