Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.27 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.58 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 1.79 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.81 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 1.89 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 1.90 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.91 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.96 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.08 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.09 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.10 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.10 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.11 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.13 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.22 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.23 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.26 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.27 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.30 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.31 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.32 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.34 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.40 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.46 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.52 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.52 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.52 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.57 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.63 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.71 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.77 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.79 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.86 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.89 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.94 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.97 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.98 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.05 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.05 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.07 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.09 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.21 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.23 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.25 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.37 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 3.49 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.51 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.66 | 3.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 3.66 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.74 | -2.87 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 100.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 78.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-10 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 74.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |