Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.38 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.74 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.74 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.81 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 1.89 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 1.92 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.96 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.00 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 2.03 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.03 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.07 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.09 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.16 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.17 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.23 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.26 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.28 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.30 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.30 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.32 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.32 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.35 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.38 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.39 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.44 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.46 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.48 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.48 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.51 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.53 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.56 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.58 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.66 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.68 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.82 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.84 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.89 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.97 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 3.03 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.05 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.16 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.18 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.29 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.31 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.38 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.57 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.58 | 3.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.69 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.74 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.80 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 63.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 66.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 66.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |