Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.62 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.63 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 1.78 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.82 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 1.83 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 1.87 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 1.91 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.94 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.98 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.00 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.02 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.06 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.13 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.19 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.24 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.27 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.29 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.31 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.32 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.35 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.38 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.41 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.43 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.44 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.48 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.50 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 2.61 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.62 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.73 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.76 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.83 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.83 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.83 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.85 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.86 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.89 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.91 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.92 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.92 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.96 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 3.13 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.20 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.20 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.33 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.35 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 3.39 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 3.43 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.45 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.77 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.81 | -2.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 44.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 97.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |