Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 192 | 1.51 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 1.55 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 1.67 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 1.82 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.83 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.86 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 1.89 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.03 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.05 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.05 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.07 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.09 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.14 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.15 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.15 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.24 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.27 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 2.29 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 2.35 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.44 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.48 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.51 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.53 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.54 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.54 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.54 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.57 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 2.61 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.66 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.67 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.70 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.71 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.76 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 2.81 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.81 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.81 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.82 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.86 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.89 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 2.96 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 3.01 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.03 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 3.04 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.13 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 3.26 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.42 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 3.53 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 3.54 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.72 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.82 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 64.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 75.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |