Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
66233
3179232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-07 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Indianapolis IN 179 1.31 -0.68 48.0
Little Rock AR 179 1.35 0.82 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 1.58 0.36 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 1.64 0.92 48.0
Nashville TN 179 1.64 1.04 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 1.75 -1.36 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 1.75 0.52 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 1.75 0.60 48.0
Salem OR 179 1.85 1.04 48.0
Austin TX 179 1.99 -0.21 48.0
Columbus OH 179 2.03 0.38 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.09 0.25 48.0
Albany NY 179 2.27 0.56 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 2.28 1.02 48.0
Jackson MS 179 2.28 1.41 48.0
Augusta ME 179 2.32 0.29 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.37 0.82 48.0
Springfield IL 179 2.46 2.27 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 2.47 1.78 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 2.47 0.52 48.0
Topeka KS 179 2.50 1.55 48.0
Charleston WV 179 2.58 2.32 48.0
Concord NH 179 2.61 -0.83 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.62 0.45 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.62 1.41 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 2.63 -1.04 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.72 0.17 48.0
Lansing MI 179 2.73 1.71 48.0
Providence RI 179 2.76 -0.51 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.82 1.34 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.82 2.19 48.0
Richmond VA 179 2.83 1.44 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 2.91 1.98 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 2.92 0.33 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 2.96 -1.88 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 2.97 0.51 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 2.99 0.96 48.0
Olympia WA 179 3.04 -0.28 48.0
Juneau AK 179 3.07 0.09 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 3.09 2.67 48.0
Helena MT 179 3.12 -0.80 48.0
Carson City NV 179 3.16 -2.32 48.0
Denver CO 179 3.27 0.01 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 3.29 1.26 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 3.44 -0.30 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 3.45 -1.30 48.0
Boise ID 179 3.71 1.18 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 3.76 -2.11 48.0
Pierre SD 179 3.89 1.77 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 4.31 -3.64 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 53.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 87.0°F 92.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 04:00 MDT Denver CO 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Dover DE 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 04:00 MDT Boise ID 56.0°F 53.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 65.0°F 59.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 52.0°F 53.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Boston MA 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 58.0°F 52.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 04:00 MDT Helena MT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 48.0°F 50.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Concord NH 52.0°F 46.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 64.0°F 70.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Albany NY 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 03:00 PDT Salem OR 56.0°F 53.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Providence RI 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-07 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0