Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.20 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 1.27 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 1.53 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.64 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 1.68 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 1.80 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.90 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 1.95 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 1.99 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 1.99 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.02 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.04 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.06 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.10 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.19 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.22 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.28 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.29 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.32 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.35 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.38 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.43 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.45 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.46 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.49 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.50 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.53 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.54 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.57 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.66 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.74 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 2.76 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.81 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.85 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.89 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.98 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.01 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.02 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 3.02 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.21 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.39 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 3.45 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.59 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 3.80 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 3.92 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 3.93 | 3.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.98 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 4.53 | 3.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 4.57 | 4.19 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 99.0°F | 97.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 107.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 102.0°F | 93.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 98.0°F | 96.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 100.0°F | 99.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 96.0°F | 95.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 84.0°F | 90.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 100.0°F | 98.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |