Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 170 | 0.95 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 1.58 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 1.68 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.69 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.71 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.80 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 1.82 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 1.94 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 1.96 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.02 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.05 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.05 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.13 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.13 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.21 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.22 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.29 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.30 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.30 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.32 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.34 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.43 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.48 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.51 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.52 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.54 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.54 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.57 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.61 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.62 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.69 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.69 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.69 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.78 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.81 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.81 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.84 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.87 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.88 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 3.04 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.29 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.31 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 3.33 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.44 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.56 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.69 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.74 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.78 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.92 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 4.08 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |