Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.40 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 1.51 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.61 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 1.67 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.76 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 1.82 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 1.93 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.96 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.02 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.02 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.03 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.06 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.11 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.11 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.15 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.16 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.20 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.25 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.29 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.30 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.30 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.30 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.31 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.38 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.42 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.44 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.47 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.49 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.61 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.66 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 2.70 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.72 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.74 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.75 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.76 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.82 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.83 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.85 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.88 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.98 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.04 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.09 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.13 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.15 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 3.21 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 3.31 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.37 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.45 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.64 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 4.23 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 91.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-03 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |