Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.55 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 1.79 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 1.79 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 1.81 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.81 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.88 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 1.89 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.91 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 1.97 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.11 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 2.13 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.14 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.16 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.17 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.19 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.22 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.28 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.32 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.35 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.37 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.40 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.42 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.42 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.44 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.44 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.46 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.52 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.59 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.59 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.62 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.65 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.68 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.69 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.72 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.78 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.81 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.82 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 3.03 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.03 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.13 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 3.34 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.34 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.36 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.51 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.51 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.52 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.54 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.54 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.90 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 4.22 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 88.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 93.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 62.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 78.0°F | 85.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |