Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.51 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.53 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.57 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 1.75 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.87 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 1.93 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 1.99 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.02 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.03 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.03 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.07 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.11 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 2.14 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.15 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.18 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.20 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.21 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.22 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.25 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.28 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.33 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.37 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.39 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.39 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.39 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.41 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.45 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.46 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.54 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.55 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.60 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.60 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.65 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.71 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.72 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 2.77 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.77 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.78 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.85 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.87 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.91 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.93 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.93 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.95 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.19 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.31 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.36 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.56 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.57 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 3.59 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 90.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 57.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-02 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |