Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.47 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.71 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 1.72 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.83 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.84 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.90 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.93 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.01 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.02 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.06 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.06 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.08 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 2.11 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.15 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.24 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.26 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.27 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.28 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.32 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.37 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.37 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.49 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.51 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.52 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.53 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.54 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.60 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.61 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.67 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.69 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.71 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.73 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.74 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.87 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.89 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.97 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.97 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.97 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.99 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 3.01 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.13 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.17 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.22 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 3.39 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.45 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.51 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.52 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.54 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.68 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 4.27 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |