Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
48933
2348832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.55°
8450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-24 00:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Juneau AK 169 1.56 0.44 48.0
Austin TX 169 1.68 1.25 48.0
Honolulu HI 169 1.83 -0.86 48.0
Richmond VA 169 1.86 0.05 48.0
Jackson MS 169 1.90 0.94 48.0
Frankfort KY 169 1.92 0.87 48.0
Raleigh NC 169 1.92 0.78 48.0
Charleston WV 169 1.96 0.26 48.0
Saint Paul MN 169 1.97 -0.22 48.0
Annapolis MD 169 2.02 1.11 48.0
Lansing MI 169 2.02 0.53 48.0
Boise ID 169 2.05 -0.84 48.0
Dover DE 169 2.11 -0.03 48.0
Indianapolis IN 169 2.15 -1.04 48.0
Columbus OH 169 2.21 -1.43 48.0
Springfield IL 169 2.22 1.57 48.0
Sacramento CA 169 2.23 0.38 48.0
Des Moines IA 169 2.31 -1.64 48.0
Albany NY 169 2.33 0.11 48.0
Jefferson City MO 169 2.36 2.02 48.0
Trenton NJ 169 2.36 1.34 48.0
Providence RI 169 2.37 0.88 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 169 2.39 2.22 48.0
Harrisburg PA 169 2.39 1.41 48.0
Nashville TN 169 2.39 1.17 48.0
Augusta ME 169 2.46 -1.83 48.0
Columbia SC 169 2.47 1.18 48.0
Boston MA 169 2.51 1.19 48.0
Madison WI 169 2.53 1.61 48.0
Montgomery AL 169 2.65 0.06 48.0
Salem OR 169 2.65 -0.32 48.0
Topeka KS 169 2.75 2.16 48.0
Pierre SD 169 2.75 -0.46 48.0
Atlanta GA 169 2.76 2.22 48.0
Tallahassee FL 169 2.82 1.38 48.0
Lincoln NE 169 2.86 1.36 48.0
Helena MT 169 2.89 -0.97 48.0
Hartford CT 169 2.90 0.63 48.0
Montpelier VT 169 2.95 0.69 48.0
Little Rock AR 169 3.01 -1.04 48.0
Carson City NV 169 3.03 -2.25 48.0
Santa Fe NM 169 3.05 0.46 48.0
Bismarck ND 169 3.08 -1.36 48.0
Concord NH 169 3.16 -1.50 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 169 3.18 0.85 48.0
Phoenix AZ 169 3.33 -1.33 48.0
Denver CO 169 3.47 -0.03 48.0
Cheyenne WY 169 3.55 0.72 48.0
Olympia WA 169 3.98 -1.81 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 169 3.99 -1.56 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Montgomery AL 89.0°F 95.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 16:00 AKDT Juneau AK 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 17:00 MST Phoenix AZ 109.0°F 111.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Little Rock AR 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 17:00 PDT Sacramento CA 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 18:00 MDT Denver CO 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Hartford CT 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Dover DE 73.0°F 79.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Atlanta GA 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 14:00 HST Honolulu HI 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 18:00 MDT Boise ID 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Springfield IL 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Topeka KS 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Frankfort KY 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 94.0°F 89.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Boston MA 74.0°F 68.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Lansing MI 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Jackson MS 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 18:00 MDT Helena MT 83.0°F 88.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Lincoln NE 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 17:00 PDT Carson City NV 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Concord NH 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Trenton NJ 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 18:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 72.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Raleigh NC 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Bismarck ND 78.0°F 84.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Columbus OH 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 19:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 100.0°F 100.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 17:00 PDT Salem OR 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Providence RI 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 20:00 EDT Columbia SC 81.0°F 88.0°F -7.0° 48.0