Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
88333
4240032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
9450 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-25 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Albany NY 189 1.80 -0.68 48.0
Trenton NJ 189 1.87 -0.96 48.0
Boise ID 189 1.91 -0.54 48.0
Honolulu HI 189 1.94 -1.90 48.0
Little Rock AR 189 1.98 1.30 48.0
Richmond VA 189 2.01 -0.26 48.0
Dover DE 189 2.09 -0.71 48.0
Saint Paul MN 189 2.11 -0.05 48.0
Tallahassee FL 189 2.15 0.91 48.0
Helena MT 189 2.16 0.81 48.0
Lansing MI 189 2.19 0.86 48.0
Boston MA 189 2.22 -0.98 48.0
Austin TX 189 2.22 1.53 48.0
Annapolis MD 189 2.26 -0.07 48.0
Des Moines IA 189 2.27 -0.02 48.0
Indianapolis IN 189 2.28 1.24 48.0
Jackson MS 189 2.29 1.46 48.0
Augusta ME 189 2.33 -1.31 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 189 2.37 0.66 48.0
Harrisburg PA 189 2.40 -1.13 48.0
Madison WI 189 2.46 0.80 48.0
Pierre SD 189 2.47 0.49 48.0
Juneau AK 189 2.48 -0.67 48.0
Bismarck ND 189 2.49 0.19 48.0
Columbus OH 189 2.51 1.62 48.0
Columbia SC 189 2.53 0.93 48.0
Montgomery AL 189 2.54 1.70 48.0
Atlanta GA 189 2.57 1.87 48.0
Providence RI 189 2.59 -2.05 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 189 2.62 -0.57 48.0
Jefferson City MO 189 2.65 0.14 48.0
Hartford CT 189 2.66 -1.59 48.0
Springfield IL 189 2.66 1.51 48.0
Frankfort KY 189 2.70 1.02 48.0
Topeka KS 189 2.82 -1.53 48.0
Santa Fe NM 189 2.89 0.49 48.0
Lincoln NE 189 2.90 -1.74 48.0
Sacramento CA 189 2.93 2.66 48.0
Charleston WV 189 2.95 1.98 48.0
Cheyenne WY 189 3.03 -0.94 48.0
Denver CO 189 3.17 1.16 48.0
Concord NH 189 3.21 -0.88 48.0
Carson City NV 189 3.30 1.49 48.0
Raleigh NC 189 3.32 0.10 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 189 3.35 3.11 48.0
Olympia WA 189 3.59 2.44 48.0
Salem OR 189 3.61 2.35 48.0
Montpelier VT 189 3.66 2.56 48.0
Nashville TN 189 3.86 3.19 48.0
Phoenix AZ 189 4.02 -1.24 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 52.0°F 49.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 91.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 MDT Denver CO 74.0°F 69.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Dover DE 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 MDT Boise ID 81.0°F 71.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 73.0°F 66.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 73.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Boston MA 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 MDT Helena MT 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 66.0°F 62.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 72.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Albany NY 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 13:00 PDT Salem OR 58.0°F 64.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Providence RI 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0