Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 183 | 1.71 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 1.85 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 1.88 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.96 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.98 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.99 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.08 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.09 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.09 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.14 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.17 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.17 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.23 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.23 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.25 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.28 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.31 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.31 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.31 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.37 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.44 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.45 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.46 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.48 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.50 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.50 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.60 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.60 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.62 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.62 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.66 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.66 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.67 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.70 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.75 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.88 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.96 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.98 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.99 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 3.01 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 3.06 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.10 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.28 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.39 | 3.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 3.40 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.62 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 3.67 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.67 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.93 | 3.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.95 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 33.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 64.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |