Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
48233
2315232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.57°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-23 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 179 1.56 1.16 48.0
Jackson MS 179 1.79 0.79 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 1.85 -0.49 48.0
Richmond VA 179 1.85 0.15 48.0
Lansing MI 179 1.94 0.31 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 1.96 -0.33 48.0
Boise ID 179 2.02 -0.85 48.0
Juneau AK 179 2.03 0.33 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 2.08 0.92 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 2.09 0.45 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 2.17 1.23 48.0
Charleston WV 179 2.17 0.65 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.20 0.24 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 2.22 1.99 48.0
Albany NY 179 2.26 0.59 48.0
Providence RI 179 2.27 0.61 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 2.28 -0.20 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.31 0.83 48.0
Columbus OH 179 2.36 -0.87 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.39 1.00 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 2.42 2.03 48.0
Augusta ME 179 2.50 -1.61 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.52 1.44 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 2.53 1.50 48.0
Nashville TN 179 2.54 1.45 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 2.55 -1.15 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.56 1.71 48.0
Springfield IL 179 2.65 2.06 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 2.66 -1.17 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 2.68 1.18 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 2.68 1.68 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 2.69 1.25 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.71 2.22 48.0
Topeka KS 179 2.74 2.11 48.0
Salem OR 179 2.74 0.15 48.0
Helena MT 179 2.76 -0.75 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 2.78 0.47 48.0
Pierre SD 179 2.79 -0.56 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.82 0.82 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 2.86 0.77 48.0
Concord NH 179 2.87 -1.62 48.0
Little Rock AR 179 2.89 -1.08 48.0
Carson City NV 179 2.91 -2.14 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 3.17 0.85 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 3.27 -0.04 48.0
Denver CO 179 3.48 0.26 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 3.55 -1.65 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 3.56 0.49 48.0
Olympia WA 179 3.75 -1.41 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 4.15 -2.15 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 93.0°F 96.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 04:00 MDT Denver CO 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Dover DE 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 04:00 MDT Boise ID 70.0°F 76.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 63.0°F 59.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 04:00 MDT Helena MT 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 61.0°F 68.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Concord NH 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 62.0°F 57.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 03:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 63.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Providence RI 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-23 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0