Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lansing MI | 169 | 1.73 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 1.75 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.75 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 1.79 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 1.90 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.91 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.97 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 1.98 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 1.99 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.02 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.03 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.07 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.08 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.11 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.16 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.21 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.21 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 2.27 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.28 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.29 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.30 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.31 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.32 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.33 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.34 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.35 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.38 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.38 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.47 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.50 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.53 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.54 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.61 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.64 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.65 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.73 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.80 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.85 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.88 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.89 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.93 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.98 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.99 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.00 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.14 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 3.22 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.23 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.31 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.83 | 3.04 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 3.88 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 112.0°F | 111.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 89.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 93.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |