Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.60 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.61 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 1.80 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.82 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 1.82 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 1.89 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.90 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 1.91 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.93 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.95 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.96 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 1.96 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 1.96 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 1.98 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.05 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.17 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.20 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.23 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.25 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.32 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.32 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.37 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.38 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.44 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.55 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.58 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.62 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.64 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.74 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.74 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.79 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.80 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.81 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.82 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.86 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.97 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.00 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.02 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 3.10 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.10 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.13 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 3.15 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.26 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.39 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.48 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.49 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 3.50 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.67 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 3.73 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.89 | -2.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 36.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 59.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 63.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-13 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |