Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.46 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 1.71 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.72 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.82 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.84 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.90 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.93 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 1.98 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.00 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.07 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.09 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.09 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 2.10 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.16 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.25 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.27 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.27 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.28 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.28 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.38 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.40 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.48 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.52 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.52 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.52 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.53 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.61 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.62 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.68 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.71 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.72 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.75 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.76 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.88 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.89 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.95 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.99 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.99 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.01 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 3.02 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.16 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.18 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.20 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 3.38 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.47 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.49 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.51 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.53 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.70 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 4.27 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |