Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 175 | 1.35 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 1.47 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.50 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.50 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 1.59 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 1.62 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.78 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 1.85 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 1.89 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.01 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.06 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.06 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.08 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.19 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.34 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.35 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.37 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.37 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.46 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.47 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.51 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.53 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.54 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.54 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.57 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.66 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.67 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 2.67 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.72 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.86 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.86 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.89 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.89 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.97 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.97 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.02 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 3.05 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 3.05 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.07 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.10 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 3.13 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 3.17 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 3.22 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 3.31 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.33 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 3.47 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.59 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.61 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.65 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 4.36 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 95.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |