Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
59433
2852832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.47°
9350 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-01 18:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 187 1.51 -0.48 48.0
Indianapolis IN 187 1.70 -0.80 48.0
Salem OR 187 1.80 0.25 48.0
Columbus OH 187 1.85 -0.89 48.0
Topeka KS 187 1.86 -0.30 48.0
Jackson MS 187 1.88 0.30 48.0
Providence RI 187 1.89 -0.29 48.0
Hartford CT 187 1.95 -0.36 48.0
Columbia SC 187 1.99 -0.14 48.0
Raleigh NC 187 2.01 0.42 48.0
Nashville TN 187 2.01 0.97 48.0
Boston MA 187 2.06 -0.36 48.0
Sacramento CA 187 2.07 1.37 48.0
Concord NH 187 2.11 0.23 48.0
Jefferson City MO 187 2.15 1.28 48.0
Annapolis MD 187 2.18 0.64 48.0
Honolulu HI 187 2.19 -2.09 48.0
Saint Paul MN 187 2.19 0.52 48.0
Des Moines IA 187 2.20 1.76 48.0
Charleston WV 187 2.20 1.83 48.0
Frankfort KY 187 2.29 1.68 48.0
Juneau AK 187 2.31 1.45 48.0
Bismarck ND 187 2.34 -0.34 48.0
Tallahassee FL 187 2.35 -0.71 48.0
Lansing MI 187 2.36 1.26 48.0
Atlanta GA 187 2.41 0.53 48.0
Springfield IL 187 2.51 1.87 48.0
Augusta ME 187 2.56 0.46 48.0
Albany NY 187 2.56 0.60 48.0
Little Rock AR 187 2.58 0.82 48.0
Dover DE 187 2.58 -0.02 48.0
Austin TX 187 2.58 2.03 48.0
Trenton NJ 187 2.59 1.98 48.0
Pierre SD 187 2.59 1.63 48.0
Montpelier VT 187 2.59 1.44 48.0
Madison WI 187 2.70 1.00 48.0
Montgomery AL 187 2.80 -1.74 48.0
Helena MT 187 2.82 -0.35 48.0
Carson City NV 187 2.82 -0.22 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 187 2.89 -0.05 48.0
Olympia WA 187 2.94 -0.84 48.0
Boise ID 187 3.03 -2.12 48.0
Cheyenne WY 187 3.11 -0.21 48.0
Lincoln NE 187 3.14 2.09 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 187 3.17 0.58 48.0
Phoenix AZ 187 3.18 -1.33 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 187 3.25 0.11 48.0
Harrisburg PA 187 3.43 -0.66 48.0
Denver CO 187 3.53 2.12 48.0
Santa Fe NM 187 3.56 -1.53 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Montgomery AL 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 10:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 MST Phoenix AZ 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Little Rock AR 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 PDT Sacramento CA 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 MDT Denver CO 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Hartford CT 79.0°F 70.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Dover DE 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 90.0°F 93.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Atlanta GA 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 08:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 MDT Boise ID 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Springfield IL 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Des Moines IA 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Topeka KS 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Frankfort KY 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 89.0°F 80.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Augusta ME 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Annapolis MD 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Lansing MI 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 83.0°F 87.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Jackson MS 94.0°F 94.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 MDT Helena MT 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Lincoln NE 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 PDT Carson City NV 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Concord NH 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Trenton NJ 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 12:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 81.0°F 72.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Albany NY 78.0°F 70.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Raleigh NC 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Bismarck ND 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Columbus OH 92.0°F 87.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 13:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 96.0°F 99.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 11:00 PDT Salem OR 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Providence RI 73.0°F 62.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-01 14:00 EDT Columbia SC 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0