Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.52 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 1.54 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.64 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.72 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.80 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 1.85 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 1.86 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 1.96 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 1.98 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.99 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.00 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.04 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.08 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 2.13 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.17 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.21 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.23 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.27 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.32 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.33 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.39 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.40 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.45 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.52 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.53 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.53 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.53 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.56 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.57 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.58 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.59 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.67 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.67 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.68 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.78 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.83 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.87 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.88 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.93 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.00 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 3.01 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.03 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.03 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.04 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.20 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.40 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.55 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 3.61 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.83 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.89 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 58.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 63.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |