Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
40983
1967232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
8900 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-17 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 178 1.17 0.47 48.0
Jackson MS 178 1.29 0.57 48.0
Little Rock AR 178 1.48 -0.71 48.0
Hartford CT 178 1.56 0.53 48.0
Providence RI 178 1.56 0.04 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 178 1.80 0.19 48.0
Honolulu HI 178 1.95 -1.10 48.0
Madison WI 178 1.95 0.24 48.0
Concord NH 178 1.98 -0.04 48.0
Augusta ME 178 1.99 0.43 48.0
Lansing MI 178 2.00 0.18 48.0
Albany NY 178 2.04 0.22 48.0
Boston MA 178 2.11 -0.09 48.0
Nashville TN 178 2.11 1.71 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 178 2.14 0.49 48.0
Raleigh NC 178 2.17 0.87 48.0
Salem OR 178 2.17 1.03 48.0
Helena MT 178 2.32 0.26 48.0
Boise ID 178 2.34 -0.40 48.0
Richmond VA 178 2.35 0.68 48.0
Carson City NV 178 2.36 -0.63 48.0
Tallahassee FL 178 2.39 0.19 48.0
Atlanta GA 178 2.41 1.62 48.0
Trenton NJ 178 2.44 1.04 48.0
Olympia WA 178 2.48 0.15 48.0
Lincoln NE 178 2.49 0.61 48.0
Pierre SD 178 2.53 -0.96 48.0
Saint Paul MN 178 2.54 -1.13 48.0
Des Moines IA 178 2.57 0.37 48.0
Dover DE 178 2.62 0.57 48.0
Topeka KS 178 2.71 1.33 48.0
Montpelier VT 178 2.80 1.13 48.0
Sacramento CA 178 2.83 1.99 48.0
Jefferson City MO 178 2.84 2.29 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 178 2.84 -0.95 48.0
Phoenix AZ 178 2.85 -0.76 48.0
Harrisburg PA 178 2.93 0.81 48.0
Bismarck ND 178 2.95 -1.69 48.0
Denver CO 178 3.02 1.30 48.0
Annapolis MD 178 3.12 0.73 48.0
Santa Fe NM 178 3.25 -2.32 48.0
Montgomery AL 178 3.45 0.46 48.0
Columbia SC 178 3.49 2.81 48.0
Cheyenne WY 178 3.61 -0.03 48.0
Juneau AK 178 3.98 -0.37 48.0
Columbus OH 178 4.04 3.44 48.0
Charleston WV 178 4.08 2.80 48.0
Springfield IL 178 4.12 3.36 48.0
Frankfort KY 178 4.62 4.21 48.0
Indianapolis IN 178 4.72 3.66 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 95.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 62.0°F 67.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 03:00 MDT Denver CO 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-16 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 03:00 MDT Boise ID 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 60.0°F 67.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Boston MA 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 03:00 MDT Helena MT 58.0°F 63.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 63.0°F 68.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Concord NH 61.0°F 66.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 64.0°F 61.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Albany NY 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 79.0°F 84.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 02:00 PDT Salem OR 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Providence RI 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-17 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0