Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.11 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.49 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 1.68 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 1.69 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 1.80 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 1.91 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 1.95 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 1.97 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 1.98 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 1.99 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 2.02 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.08 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.11 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.11 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.14 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.17 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.20 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.25 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.28 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.33 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.33 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.39 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.41 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.44 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.45 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.48 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.48 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.49 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.52 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.52 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.60 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.69 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.70 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 2.75 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.83 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.83 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.85 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.87 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.01 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.03 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 3.13 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.13 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 3.20 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 3.26 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 3.26 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 3.81 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 3.94 | 3.38 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 3.98 | 3.74 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 4.02 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 4.23 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 78.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 50.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 74.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |