Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 189 | 1.80 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.93 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.95 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.96 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.03 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.11 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.16 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.16 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.19 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.23 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.23 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.26 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.32 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.33 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.35 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.36 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.38 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.38 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.42 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.42 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.42 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.44 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.48 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.51 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.52 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.56 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.56 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.57 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.61 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.62 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.66 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.74 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.75 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.77 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.85 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.92 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.93 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.95 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 3.03 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 3.05 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.06 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.20 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.29 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 3.42 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.49 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.52 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 3.60 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.87 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.93 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 4.24 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 93.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 59.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 72.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 60.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 58.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |