Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.53 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 1.72 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.75 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 1.80 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.81 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 1.85 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 1.86 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.91 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.01 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.02 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.03 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.04 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.07 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.12 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.15 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.15 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.18 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 2.19 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.19 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.21 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.28 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.36 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.37 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.39 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.40 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.42 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.43 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.48 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.55 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.55 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.58 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.59 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.63 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.65 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.65 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.65 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.77 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.77 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.84 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 2.93 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.98 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.99 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.13 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 3.16 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.18 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.21 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.30 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 3.47 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.51 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.53 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 63.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-01 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |