Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville TN | 173 | 1.35 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.45 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.51 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.51 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 1.61 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 1.62 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.78 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 1.84 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 1.90 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.99 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.03 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.08 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.08 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.21 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.31 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.33 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.35 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.39 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.46 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.47 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.47 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.50 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.55 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.55 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.57 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.65 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 2.65 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.66 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.71 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.88 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.89 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.91 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.92 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.96 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.99 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.03 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 3.05 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.06 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.06 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.13 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.16 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 3.18 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 3.18 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.34 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.34 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 3.46 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.56 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.58 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.60 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 4.35 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 97.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 78.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-04 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |