Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.13 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 1.19 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 1.52 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 1.52 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.77 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 1.84 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 1.86 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.88 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.94 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.06 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.09 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.14 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.17 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.20 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.26 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.30 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.35 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.40 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.48 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.48 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.50 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.52 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.64 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.65 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.66 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.67 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.69 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.69 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.69 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.69 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.74 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.74 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.76 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 2.80 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.82 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.82 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.91 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.02 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 3.05 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.06 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.08 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.10 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.11 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.14 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.25 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.26 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.49 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 3.64 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 4.11 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 4.16 | -3.42 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 105.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 100.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 92.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 100.0°F | 102.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 94.0°F | 86.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 75.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 100.0°F | 101.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 88.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |