Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.61 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.67 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.68 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 1.72 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 1.84 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 1.85 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.94 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 1.94 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.96 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 1.99 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.01 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.03 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.05 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.07 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.13 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.13 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.15 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 2.17 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.19 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.23 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.24 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 2.26 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.30 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.35 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.37 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.37 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.43 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.44 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.48 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.61 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.64 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.67 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.69 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.70 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.74 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.76 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.76 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.84 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.85 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.95 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.97 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.98 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 3.08 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.10 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 3.19 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.32 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 3.34 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 3.45 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.49 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-30 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 56.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 73.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-31 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |