Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
60233
2891232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.48°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-02 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 179 1.51 -0.34 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 1.53 -0.55 48.0
Jackson MS 179 1.57 -0.08 48.0
Salem OR 179 1.75 0.46 48.0
Columbus OH 179 1.87 -0.73 48.0
Topeka KS 179 1.93 -0.31 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 1.99 0.72 48.0
Nashville TN 179 2.02 1.20 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 2.03 1.46 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 2.03 0.26 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.07 -0.40 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 2.11 1.40 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 2.14 -2.04 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.15 0.07 48.0
Concord NH 179 2.18 0.15 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 2.20 1.42 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.21 0.51 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 2.22 1.42 48.0
Charleston WV 179 2.25 1.89 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 2.28 -0.35 48.0
Springfield IL 179 2.33 1.61 48.0
Juneau AK 179 2.37 1.11 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.39 0.34 48.0
Lansing MI 179 2.39 1.27 48.0
Providence RI 179 2.39 0.42 48.0
Little Rock AR 179 2.41 0.54 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 2.45 -0.91 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.46 0.56 48.0
Austin TX 179 2.54 1.74 48.0
Augusta ME 179 2.55 0.60 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.60 0.23 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 2.60 1.43 48.0
Albany NY 179 2.65 1.26 48.0
Boise ID 179 2.71 -1.74 48.0
Pierre SD 179 2.72 1.83 48.0
Olympia WA 179 2.77 -0.50 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.77 0.97 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 2.78 2.22 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 2.85 0.15 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 2.87 -1.83 48.0
Helena MT 179 2.91 -0.38 48.0
Carson City NV 179 2.93 -0.28 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 2.93 -0.14 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 2.95 -0.02 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 3.19 2.25 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 3.31 0.40 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 3.36 -1.36 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 3.56 -1.65 48.0
Denver CO 179 3.57 1.61 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 3.59 -0.33 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 49.0°F 45.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 83.0°F 90.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 MDT Denver CO 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Dover DE 75.0°F 73.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 MDT Boise ID 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 80.0°F 73.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 56.0°F 59.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Boston MA 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 MDT Helena MT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 50.0°F 57.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Concord NH 57.0°F 62.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Albany NY 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 03:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Providence RI 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-02 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0