Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 1.53 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.65 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 1.80 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 1.82 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.82 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.83 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.87 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.88 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.91 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.99 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.02 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.08 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.11 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.24 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.25 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.25 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.27 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.32 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.34 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.35 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.37 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.40 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.44 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.46 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.48 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.50 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.60 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.65 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.68 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.80 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.82 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.82 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.84 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.87 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.88 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.89 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.91 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.92 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.97 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.99 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 3.05 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 3.20 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.22 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.33 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.41 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.42 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.44 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.46 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.70 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.83 | 3.30 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 104.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 84.0°F | 90.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 95.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-11 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |