Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.57 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.81 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.83 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.91 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.92 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 1.97 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.01 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.01 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.09 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.20 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.20 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.23 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.26 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.28 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.31 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.33 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.36 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.37 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.40 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.41 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.46 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.54 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.54 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.56 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.58 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.60 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.62 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.64 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.70 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.70 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 2.70 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.73 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.75 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.77 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.81 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.84 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.88 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.90 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.91 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.92 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.96 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.97 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 3.14 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.23 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.40 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.51 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.58 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.63 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 3.63 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.75 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 72.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 77.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-22 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |