Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.44 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 1.45 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.47 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 1.55 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 1.56 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.61 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 1.79 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.80 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 1.83 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.97 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.02 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.08 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.22 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.25 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.25 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.27 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.41 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.47 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.47 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.49 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.53 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.53 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.54 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.56 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.58 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.61 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.63 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.70 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 2.78 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.83 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.87 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.88 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.94 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.94 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.94 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.98 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.99 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.99 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.00 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.01 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 3.12 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.15 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.20 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.22 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 3.26 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 3.42 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.58 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.76 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.82 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 4.31 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 80.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 100.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 97.0°F | 99.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 95.0°F | 77.0°F | +18.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 92.0°F | 92.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-05 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |