Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.70 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 1.83 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 1.84 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.89 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.89 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.90 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.91 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 1.93 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.97 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.98 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 1.99 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.04 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.06 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.16 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.16 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 2.23 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.28 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.29 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.29 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.33 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.35 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.36 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.39 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.40 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.41 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 2.51 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.52 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.53 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.58 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.59 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.63 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.66 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.66 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.68 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.70 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.72 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.77 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.78 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.84 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.85 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.89 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.01 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.05 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.13 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.23 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.36 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 3.42 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.73 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 4.10 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 101.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-26 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-27 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |