Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.04 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.44 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.51 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 1.63 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 1.77 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 1.80 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 1.93 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.94 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.12 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.12 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.13 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.15 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.16 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.16 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.17 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.17 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.22 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.22 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.24 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.28 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.32 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.37 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.38 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.40 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.40 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.42 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.56 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.56 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.57 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.61 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.74 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.82 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.88 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.94 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.97 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.99 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 3.02 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.03 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.04 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.08 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 3.17 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 3.18 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.24 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.25 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.31 | -3.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 3.44 | -2.70 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.44 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.68 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.92 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.92 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 97.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |