Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
36233
1739232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.65°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-13 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 179 0.97 0.45 48.0
Providence RI 179 1.72 -0.72 48.0
Topeka KS 179 1.79 0.37 48.0
Boise ID 179 1.95 0.55 48.0
Albany NY 179 1.96 -0.47 48.0
Juneau AK 179 2.05 -0.81 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 2.06 -0.50 48.0
Augusta ME 179 2.15 -0.59 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 2.16 0.92 48.0
Richmond VA 179 2.21 0.64 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.23 -0.06 48.0
Salem OR 179 2.24 0.54 48.0
Lansing MI 179 2.28 -0.21 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 2.29 -2.27 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 2.31 1.37 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.34 -0.27 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 2.34 0.64 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 2.36 -1.37 48.0
Concord NH 179 2.37 -1.50 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.39 -1.04 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 2.40 -1.02 48.0
Carson City NV 179 2.41 -0.62 48.0
Little Rock AR 179 2.45 0.85 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 2.50 0.37 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 2.54 0.13 48.0
Jackson MS 179 2.55 2.07 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.61 -0.26 48.0
Springfield IL 179 2.62 1.60 48.0
Helena MT 179 2.62 0.79 48.0
Denver CO 179 2.64 0.41 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.68 2.01 48.0
Nashville TN 179 2.71 2.49 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.72 1.11 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 2.73 -1.55 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.73 1.20 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 2.84 -0.75 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 2.88 -0.69 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 2.92 0.55 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 3.00 -0.58 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 3.02 1.58 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 3.03 2.58 48.0
Olympia WA 179 3.12 0.38 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 3.13 -2.03 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 3.57 2.39 48.0
Pierre SD 179 3.64 0.96 48.0
Columbus OH 179 3.75 2.55 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 4.02 3.44 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 4.03 0.56 48.0
Charleston WV 179 4.13 2.75 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 4.36 4.32 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 53.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 04:00 MDT Denver CO 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 73.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 04:00 MDT Boise ID 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 79.0°F 83.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Boston MA 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 67.0°F 71.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 79.0°F 73.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 04:00 MDT Helena MT 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 72.0°F 77.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Concord NH 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 67.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 70.0°F 65.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 03:00 PDT Salem OR 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Providence RI 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-13 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0