Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.12 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.29 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 1.46 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 1.57 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.69 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.86 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 1.87 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.92 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.98 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 1.98 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.02 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.21 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.21 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.22 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.28 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.37 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.39 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.41 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.42 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.47 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.54 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.58 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.62 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.62 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.62 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.63 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.65 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.68 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.71 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.72 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.73 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.78 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.79 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.79 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.80 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.82 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.86 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 2.97 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.99 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.05 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.14 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 3.23 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.30 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.30 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.31 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.34 | -3.08 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.50 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 3.69 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.90 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 4.39 | -4.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 103.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 66.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-09 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |