Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.17 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.23 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 1.40 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 1.59 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.75 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 1.77 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.87 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.90 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 1.92 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.00 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.14 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.15 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.19 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.23 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.27 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.39 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.41 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.43 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.45 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.50 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.58 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.58 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.62 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.63 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.66 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.66 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.68 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.69 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.70 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.71 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.76 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.77 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.82 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.82 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 2.84 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.87 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.92 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 3.05 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.12 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.18 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.19 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.19 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.20 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 3.24 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 3.28 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.39 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.40 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 3.87 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 4.26 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 4.43 | -3.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 100.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |