Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.55 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.64 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.87 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.87 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 1.89 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 1.95 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 1.96 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 1.99 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 2.06 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.07 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.11 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.20 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.21 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.26 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.27 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.27 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.29 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.30 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.31 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.38 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.38 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.39 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.39 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.40 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.41 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.42 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.45 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.45 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.47 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.49 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.54 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.62 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.64 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.64 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 2.68 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.73 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.74 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.84 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 2.86 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.86 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.89 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.07 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.13 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.40 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.52 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.53 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.55 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.95 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 4.54 | 3.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 5.28 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 72.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 73.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-16 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 74.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-17 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |