Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.56 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 1.58 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.76 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 1.83 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.88 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.90 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 1.91 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.93 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.96 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 1.99 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.03 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.05 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.10 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.14 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.19 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.21 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.22 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.26 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.27 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.36 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.41 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.43 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.43 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.44 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.45 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.57 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.59 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 2.62 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.64 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.65 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 2.67 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.68 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.71 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.76 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.77 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.78 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.79 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.82 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.82 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.86 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.88 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.94 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.97 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.04 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.21 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.34 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.36 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 3.41 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.52 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.85 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 79.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |