Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
38936
1868976 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.56°
9253 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-15 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 185 1.11 0.49 48.0
Jackson MS 185 1.50 0.86 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 185 1.67 -0.03 48.0
Providence RI 185 1.67 -0.05 48.0
Salem OR 185 1.79 0.14 48.0
Hartford CT 185 1.90 0.72 48.0
Concord NH 185 1.95 -0.46 48.0
Madison WI 185 1.97 0.54 48.0
Augusta ME 185 1.98 0.40 48.0
Albany NY 185 1.98 0.04 48.0
Honolulu HI 185 2.02 -1.98 48.0
Little Rock AR 186 2.09 0.18 48.0
Boston MA 185 2.09 -0.67 48.0
Lansing MI 185 2.13 0.09 48.0
Raleigh NC 185 2.14 0.57 48.0
Trenton NJ 185 2.17 0.78 48.0
Topeka KS 185 2.19 0.79 48.0
Richmond VA 185 2.24 0.36 48.0
Des Moines IA 185 2.34 -0.18 48.0
Helena MT 185 2.34 0.43 48.0
Boise ID 185 2.35 0.29 48.0
Tallahassee FL 185 2.38 0.21 48.0
Phoenix AZ 185 2.41 -0.10 48.0
Nashville TN 185 2.43 2.08 48.0
Dover DE 185 2.48 0.24 48.0
Jefferson City MO 185 2.49 1.95 48.0
Carson City NV 185 2.50 -0.84 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 185 2.51 -0.63 48.0
Montpelier VT 185 2.51 1.42 48.0
Atlanta GA 185 2.53 1.75 48.0
Harrisburg PA 185 2.59 0.61 48.0
Lincoln NE 185 2.68 0.79 48.0
Saint Paul MN 185 2.70 -0.74 48.0
Olympia WA 185 2.74 -0.15 48.0
Denver CO 185 2.81 0.84 48.0
Columbia SC 185 2.82 1.69 48.0
Annapolis MD 185 2.86 0.94 48.0
Santa Fe NM 185 2.86 -1.97 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 185 3.01 1.41 48.0
Springfield IL 185 3.08 2.11 48.0
Bismarck ND 185 3.10 -1.38 48.0
Cheyenne WY 185 3.18 0.39 48.0
Montgomery AL 186 3.19 -0.45 48.0
Pierre SD 185 3.26 0.36 48.0
Juneau AK 186 3.30 -0.12 48.0
Columbus OH 185 3.82 2.66 48.0
Frankfort KY 185 3.91 3.33 48.0
Sacramento CA 185 3.95 3.68 48.0
Charleston WV 185 3.99 2.12 48.0
Indianapolis IN 185 4.25 1.59 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-15 12:00 CDT Montgomery AL 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 09:00 AKDT Juneau AK 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 CDT Little Rock AR 96.0°F 97.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 92.0°F 85.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 63.0°F 57.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 93.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 10:00 MDT Denver CO 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Dover DE 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 10:00 MDT Boise ID 72.0°F 80.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 87.0°F 78.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 82.0°F 75.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 87.0°F 89.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Boston MA 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 73.0°F 69.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 90.0°F 84.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 10:00 MDT Helena MT 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Concord NH 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Albany NY 74.0°F 70.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 91.0°F 92.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-15 09:00 PDT Salem OR 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0