Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.03 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.53 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.57 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 1.61 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 1.82 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 1.84 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 1.86 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 1.90 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.01 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.01 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.17 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.19 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.25 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.25 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.26 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.26 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.27 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.27 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.32 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.39 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.39 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.40 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.41 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.43 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.47 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.53 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.64 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.69 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.71 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.76 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.81 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.83 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.84 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.84 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.92 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.92 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.94 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.95 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.12 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.14 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 3.14 | -2.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.14 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.22 | -3.15 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.24 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.39 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.41 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.50 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 3.63 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.72 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 4.06 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 87.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 87.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 80.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |