Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 1.69 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.76 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 1.80 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 1.81 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.87 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.91 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.94 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 1.97 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 1.99 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.01 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 2.03 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.05 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.12 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.12 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.13 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.18 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.19 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.28 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.29 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.31 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.33 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.37 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.43 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.46 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.46 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.51 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.55 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.56 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.58 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.62 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.64 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.65 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.67 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.67 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.73 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.73 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.74 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.86 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.87 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.94 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.97 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.02 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.02 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.13 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 3.17 | 3.00 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.18 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.20 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.26 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 3.59 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.93 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 108.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |