Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise ID | 173 | 1.74 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.75 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 1.79 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.84 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.92 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.05 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.06 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.08 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.08 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.13 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.13 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.14 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.17 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.20 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.24 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.25 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.27 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.32 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.34 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.37 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.39 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.39 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.43 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.46 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.53 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.54 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.62 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.65 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.67 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.68 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.68 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.73 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.75 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 2.76 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.78 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.84 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.90 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.91 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.98 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 3.04 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.10 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 3.13 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.16 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 3.19 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 3.48 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.61 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.72 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 3.80 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.86 | 3.14 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.88 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |