Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.56 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.70 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 1.82 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 1.88 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 1.92 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 1.96 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.99 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.06 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.12 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.13 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 2.16 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.17 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.17 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.19 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.19 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.23 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.24 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.25 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.27 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.28 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.36 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.38 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.39 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.42 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.48 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.52 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.56 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.61 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.68 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.68 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.74 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.78 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.79 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.81 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.85 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.85 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.93 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.96 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.97 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.05 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 3.06 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.10 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.20 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.28 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.34 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.40 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 3.86 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 4.05 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 4.34 | 3.55 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 4.54 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 96.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 81.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 94.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 94.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |