Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
54083
2596032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.47°
8800 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-28 07:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Lansing MI 176 1.72 0.73 48.0
Saint Paul MN 176 1.73 -0.21 48.0
Richmond VA 176 1.76 -0.02 48.0
Des Moines IA 176 1.78 0.08 48.0
Columbus OH 176 1.90 -1.62 48.0
Frankfort KY 176 1.98 0.93 48.0
Sacramento CA 176 2.01 0.58 48.0
Annapolis MD 176 2.01 0.76 48.0
Madison WI 176 2.05 1.06 48.0
Jefferson City MO 176 2.06 1.15 48.0
Pierre SD 176 2.06 1.14 48.0
Charleston WV 176 2.07 1.07 48.0
Atlanta GA 176 2.08 1.19 48.0
Tallahassee FL 176 2.16 0.35 48.0
Trenton NJ 176 2.19 1.11 48.0
Boston MA 176 2.22 0.47 48.0
Juneau AK 176 2.24 1.26 48.0
Indianapolis IN 176 2.25 -1.66 48.0
Providence RI 176 2.26 0.28 48.0
Honolulu HI 176 2.27 -2.07 48.0
Augusta ME 176 2.27 -1.64 48.0
Nashville TN 176 2.27 0.43 48.0
Austin TX 176 2.27 1.79 48.0
Lincoln NE 176 2.31 0.84 48.0
Albany NY 176 2.32 -0.74 48.0
Topeka KS 176 2.34 1.09 48.0
Harrisburg PA 176 2.34 0.40 48.0
Hartford CT 176 2.35 -0.41 48.0
Montpelier VT 176 2.46 1.45 48.0
Salem OR 176 2.47 0.28 48.0
Concord NH 176 2.49 -0.65 48.0
Raleigh NC 176 2.54 0.70 48.0
Phoenix AZ 176 2.59 -1.44 48.0
Carson City NV 176 2.65 -1.70 48.0
Dover DE 176 2.66 -0.85 48.0
Bismarck ND 176 2.81 -0.40 48.0
Santa Fe NM 176 2.86 -0.28 48.0
Montgomery AL 176 2.88 -1.19 48.0
Boise ID 176 2.88 -2.09 48.0
Columbia SC 176 2.89 0.18 48.0
Cheyenne WY 176 2.90 -0.35 48.0
Springfield IL 176 2.93 2.23 48.0
Denver CO 176 2.94 0.90 48.0
Helena MT 176 3.07 -0.27 48.0
Jackson MS 176 3.13 1.76 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 176 3.13 0.88 48.0
Olympia WA 176 3.18 -1.75 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 176 3.27 -0.23 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 176 3.71 2.90 48.0
Little Rock AR 176 3.89 0.86 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 23:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 47.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 MST Phoenix AZ 97.0°F 100.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Little Rock AR 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 PDT Sacramento CA 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 01:00 MDT Denver CO 70.0°F 70.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Hartford CT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Dover DE 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Atlanta GA 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-27 21:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 01:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Springfield IL 66.0°F 61.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Des Moines IA 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Topeka KS 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Frankfort KY 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Boston MA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Lansing MI 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 01:00 MDT Helena MT 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Lincoln NE 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 PDT Carson City NV 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Concord NH 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Trenton NJ 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 01:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 63.0°F 70.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Albany NY 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Raleigh NC 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Bismarck ND 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Columbus OH 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 02:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 00:00 PDT Salem OR 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Providence RI 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-28 03:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0