Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 1.50 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.69 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 1.75 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 1.81 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.90 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.90 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.93 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.04 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.04 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.05 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.08 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.09 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.12 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 2.14 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.22 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.23 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.24 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.30 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.34 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.35 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.35 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.48 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.49 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.52 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.53 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.56 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.57 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.62 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.64 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.66 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.68 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.71 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.71 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.84 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.88 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.93 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.93 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.97 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.97 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.00 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.10 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.24 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.27 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 3.38 | -2.50 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.40 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.49 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.56 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.58 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.68 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 4.28 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |