Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.41 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.49 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.76 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 1.81 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.81 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 1.95 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.99 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.02 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.05 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.06 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.12 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.12 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.21 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.24 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.26 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.26 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.27 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.30 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.32 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.32 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.33 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.36 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.39 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.41 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.44 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.52 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.55 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.58 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.64 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.75 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.75 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.75 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.76 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.81 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.84 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.95 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.99 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.12 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.13 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.22 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.29 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 3.30 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.33 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.34 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 3.40 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.53 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.57 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.86 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 3.89 | -3.66 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 4.54 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 64.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 99.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 74.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 65.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 101.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 80.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 68.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 71.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |