Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 1.49 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 1.55 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.83 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 1.85 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 1.95 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 1.98 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.00 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.06 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.14 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.15 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.18 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.20 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.23 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.24 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.25 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.27 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.28 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.28 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.33 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.46 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.46 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.54 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.56 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.65 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.65 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.67 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.74 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.74 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.75 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.76 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.78 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.82 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.86 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.86 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.86 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.93 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.93 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.95 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.01 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 3.05 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.05 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 3.13 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.16 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.33 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.42 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.62 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.68 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 3.70 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 3.78 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.78 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |