Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 180 | 1.59 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.63 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 1.69 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.71 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 1.83 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 1.96 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 1.97 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.98 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 1.98 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.06 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.06 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.16 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.17 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.21 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.22 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.30 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.31 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.31 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.31 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.36 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.36 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 2.36 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.37 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.39 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.45 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.49 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.52 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.54 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.58 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.65 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.69 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.71 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.76 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.77 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.85 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.86 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.86 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.88 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.88 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.89 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.95 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.01 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.10 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.61 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.69 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.69 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 3.77 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.78 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 3.78 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 4.85 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 39.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-15 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |