Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.51 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.57 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.66 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 1.73 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 1.86 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.93 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 1.93 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.06 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.11 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.14 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.15 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.17 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.21 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.22 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.23 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.24 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.27 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.34 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.44 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.48 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.53 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.56 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.57 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.58 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.59 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.64 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.64 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.68 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.69 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.71 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.75 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.75 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.76 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.78 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.79 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.83 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.84 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.88 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.92 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.03 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.11 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 3.14 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.18 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.22 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.31 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 3.43 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.52 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 3.63 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.88 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.91 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 69.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 74.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |