Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.60 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.64 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 1.77 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.83 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 1.84 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 1.87 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.94 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 1.96 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.97 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.97 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.02 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.03 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.15 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.17 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.22 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.25 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.25 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.29 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.30 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.35 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.40 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.40 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.42 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.45 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.46 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.47 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.57 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 2.62 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.71 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.73 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.80 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.80 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.82 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.83 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.87 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.87 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.88 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.89 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.96 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.96 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.13 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.22 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 3.29 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.33 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 3.36 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.38 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.39 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.49 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.73 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.79 | -2.71 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 38.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 72.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-12 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |