Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.59 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.88 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.91 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 1.92 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 1.94 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.03 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.06 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.06 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.15 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.16 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.23 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.23 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.26 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.29 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.30 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.30 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.39 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.45 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.47 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.48 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.51 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.57 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.58 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.59 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.62 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.63 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.63 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.63 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.68 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.68 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.69 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.73 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.73 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.73 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.84 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.85 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.85 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.86 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.90 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.95 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 3.07 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.11 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 3.16 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.16 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.43 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 3.58 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 3.61 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.62 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.77 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 4.02 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 83.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 65.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 66.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 61.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |