Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.12 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 1.30 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 1.47 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 1.56 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.70 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.85 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 1.88 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.95 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 1.95 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.99 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.01 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.20 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.22 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.22 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.29 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.37 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.40 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.41 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.43 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.49 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.54 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.56 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.60 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 2.61 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.63 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.63 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.65 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.69 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.71 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.74 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.75 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.78 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.80 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.81 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.82 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.83 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.89 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.96 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 2.96 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.06 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.08 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 3.25 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 3.28 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 3.32 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.32 | -3.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.32 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 3.47 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 3.71 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.92 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 4.39 | -4.12 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 105.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 68.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 84.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 73.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-08 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |