Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.17 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.30 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.48 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 1.55 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 1.57 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 1.82 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 1.91 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 1.94 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.95 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 1.95 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.00 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.04 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.11 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.11 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.13 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.18 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.19 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.31 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.34 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.36 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.36 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.39 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.43 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.44 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.46 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.48 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.55 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.55 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.57 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.64 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.70 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 2.76 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.78 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.82 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.83 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.86 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.93 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.98 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.03 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 3.15 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.26 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.48 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 3.52 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.64 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 4.01 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 4.07 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 4.11 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 4.16 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 4.64 | 4.23 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 4.77 | 3.69 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 99.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |