Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 1.28 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.31 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 1.57 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 1.67 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 1.71 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.76 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 1.79 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.80 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.94 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.96 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 1.99 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.08 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.22 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.27 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.28 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.30 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.42 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.45 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.51 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.52 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.54 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.56 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.56 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.58 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.60 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.64 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.68 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.70 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.72 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.72 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.79 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.87 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.87 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.87 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.90 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 2.93 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.96 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 2.97 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.99 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.06 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.08 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.13 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.26 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.30 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.40 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.53 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.65 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 3.66 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 4.19 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 4.22 | -3.56 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 102.0°F | 102.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 90.0°F | 82.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 77.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 81.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 97.0°F | 99.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 98.0°F | 101.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-07 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |