Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.12 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 1.33 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 1.60 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 1.61 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 1.64 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 1.70 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 1.71 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 1.83 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.95 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 1.97 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.98 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.04 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.04 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.13 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.14 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.18 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.25 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.25 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.32 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.34 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.37 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.40 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.43 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.44 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.47 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.49 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.52 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.53 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.55 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.58 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.59 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 2.64 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.65 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.66 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.70 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.80 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.80 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.89 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.92 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.01 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 3.20 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.36 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.40 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 3.41 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 3.57 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.62 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 3.80 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 3.94 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 4.26 | 3.79 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 4.68 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 98.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-15 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |