Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 174 | 1.54 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.58 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.70 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 1.73 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.87 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.87 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 1.93 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 1.96 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.99 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.02 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.03 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.04 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.05 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.13 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.18 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.24 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.25 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.26 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.28 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.36 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.41 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.43 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.45 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.50 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.52 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.60 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.61 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.62 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 2.64 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.67 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.72 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.74 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.77 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.80 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.82 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.82 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.83 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.83 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.86 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.89 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.93 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.94 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.95 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.14 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.23 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.36 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.40 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.50 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 3.53 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.91 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 100.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 72.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-24 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-25 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |