Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
51383
2466432 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.51°
8500 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-26 01:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Frankfort KY 170 1.68 0.50 48.0
Richmond VA 170 1.75 0.01 48.0
Charleston WV 170 1.80 0.51 48.0
Juneau AK 170 1.82 0.88 48.0
Austin TX 170 1.88 1.61 48.0
Trenton NJ 170 1.90 0.97 48.0
Columbus OH 170 1.94 -1.55 48.0
Lansing MI 170 1.98 0.75 48.0
Annapolis MD 170 2.01 1.22 48.0
Honolulu HI 170 2.02 -1.47 48.0
Saint Paul MN 170 2.02 -0.18 48.0
Raleigh NC 170 2.04 0.53 48.0
Jefferson City MO 170 2.11 1.58 48.0
Indianapolis IN 170 2.12 -1.81 48.0
Sacramento CA 170 2.15 0.68 48.0
Madison WI 170 2.18 1.59 48.0
Nashville TN 170 2.20 0.55 48.0
Boise ID 170 2.29 -1.31 48.0
Providence RI 170 2.29 0.32 48.0
Harrisburg PA 170 2.31 1.02 48.0
Augusta ME 170 2.34 -1.82 48.0
Atlanta GA 170 2.37 1.72 48.0
Pierre SD 170 2.42 -0.06 48.0
Lincoln NE 170 2.47 0.99 48.0
Salem OR 170 2.48 -0.51 48.0
Boston MA 170 2.50 0.23 48.0
Albany NY 170 2.54 -0.58 48.0
Dover DE 170 2.56 -0.77 48.0
Springfield IL 170 2.56 1.91 48.0
Des Moines IA 170 2.62 -1.18 48.0
Helena MT 170 2.64 -0.58 48.0
Columbia SC 170 2.65 0.11 48.0
Topeka KS 170 2.66 1.80 48.0
Montpelier VT 170 2.67 1.28 48.0
Carson City NV 170 2.72 -1.70 48.0
Tallahassee FL 170 2.75 1.38 48.0
Concord NH 170 2.76 -0.82 48.0
Hartford CT 170 2.83 -0.35 48.0
Jackson MS 170 2.88 1.69 48.0
Santa Fe NM 170 2.93 0.98 48.0
Bismarck ND 170 2.98 -1.16 48.0
Montgomery AL 170 3.01 -0.60 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 170 3.04 1.08 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 170 3.15 2.98 48.0
Cheyenne WY 170 3.16 0.16 48.0
Phoenix AZ 170 3.18 -0.52 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 170 3.21 -0.55 48.0
Denver CO 170 3.26 0.84 48.0
Little Rock AR 170 3.62 -0.27 48.0
Olympia WA 170 3.95 -2.36 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Montgomery AL 85.0°F 92.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 17:00 AKDT Juneau AK 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 18:00 MST Phoenix AZ 108.0°F 113.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Little Rock AR 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 18:00 PDT Sacramento CA 90.0°F 94.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 19:00 MDT Denver CO 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Hartford CT 67.0°F 74.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Atlanta GA 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 15:00 HST Honolulu HI 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 19:00 MDT Boise ID 92.0°F 96.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Springfield IL 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Frankfort KY 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 72.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Annapolis MD 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Boston MA 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Lansing MI 71.0°F 75.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Jackson MS 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 19:00 MDT Helena MT 80.0°F 87.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Lincoln NE 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 18:00 PDT Carson City NV 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Concord NH 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Trenton NJ 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 19:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 83.0°F 91.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Albany NY 63.0°F 69.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Raleigh NC 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Bismarck ND 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Columbus OH 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 20:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 18:00 PDT Salem OR 79.0°F 84.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Providence RI 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-25 21:00 EDT Columbia SC 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0