Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.27 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 1.58 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.68 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.77 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.85 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.85 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 1.88 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.88 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 1.89 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 1.95 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.97 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 1.99 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.05 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.07 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.18 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.19 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.23 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.27 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.28 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.30 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.36 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.38 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.44 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.44 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.46 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.52 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.54 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.60 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.60 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.64 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.69 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.70 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.71 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.81 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.81 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.83 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.83 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 2.84 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.86 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.86 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.93 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.15 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.19 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 3.39 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.45 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.45 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.47 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.52 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.66 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.74 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-21 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |