Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
43333
2080032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
8850 matched hours
Last good run
2026-08-19 08:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Austin TX 177 1.08 0.31 48.0
Jackson MS 177 1.25 0.72 48.0
Little Rock AR 177 1.52 -0.18 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 177 1.60 0.27 48.0
Honolulu HI 177 1.71 -0.62 48.0
Lansing MI 177 1.81 0.08 48.0
Providence RI 177 1.81 0.20 48.0
Richmond VA 177 1.82 -0.44 48.0
Hartford CT 177 1.95 0.64 48.0
Raleigh NC 177 1.95 1.07 48.0
Albany NY 177 2.04 0.21 48.0
Augusta ME 177 2.06 -0.03 48.0
Dover DE 177 2.16 -0.26 48.0
Nashville TN 177 2.16 1.81 48.0
Madison WI 177 2.19 0.58 48.0
Boston MA 177 2.20 0.57 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 177 2.22 0.15 48.0
Concord NH 177 2.25 -0.69 48.0
Annapolis MD 177 2.32 -0.22 48.0
Salem OR 177 2.32 1.06 48.0
Harrisburg PA 177 2.32 -0.36 48.0
Trenton NJ 177 2.33 0.63 48.0
Sacramento CA 177 2.36 0.63 48.0
Boise ID 177 2.38 -0.79 48.0
Saint Paul MN 177 2.41 -0.88 48.0
Pierre SD 177 2.57 -1.28 48.0
Olympia WA 177 2.58 -0.31 48.0
Helena MT 177 2.62 -0.36 48.0
Tallahassee FL 177 2.69 0.77 48.0
Des Moines IA 177 2.69 0.47 48.0
Lincoln NE 177 2.69 0.76 48.0
Atlanta GA 177 2.73 2.15 48.0
Carson City NV 177 2.77 -1.35 48.0
Montpelier VT 177 2.91 0.66 48.0
Topeka KS 177 2.97 1.94 48.0
Phoenix AZ 177 2.99 -1.85 48.0
Charleston WV 177 3.03 1.31 48.0
Jefferson City MO 177 3.16 2.76 48.0
Santa Fe NM 177 3.19 -1.89 48.0
Bismarck ND 177 3.23 -2.38 48.0
Columbus OH 177 3.34 1.93 48.0
Denver CO 177 3.37 1.29 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 177 3.44 -1.68 48.0
Juneau AK 177 3.47 0.59 48.0
Montgomery AL 177 3.50 1.17 48.0
Columbia SC 177 3.50 3.14 48.0
Cheyenne WY 177 3.94 0.62 48.0
Indianapolis IN 177 4.15 3.54 48.0
Springfield IL 177 4.28 3.91 48.0
Frankfort KY 177 4.53 4.20 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Montgomery AL 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 00:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 01:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 100.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 01:00 PDT Sacramento CA 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 02:00 MDT Denver CO 68.0°F 63.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Hartford CT 64.0°F 71.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Dover DE 70.0°F 75.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Atlanta GA 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-18 22:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 02:00 MDT Boise ID 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Springfield IL 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Des Moines IA 68.0°F 75.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Topeka KS 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Frankfort KY 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Augusta ME 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Annapolis MD 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Lansing MI 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Jackson MS 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 02:00 MDT Helena MT 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Lincoln NE 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 01:00 PDT Carson City NV 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Concord NH 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Trenton NJ 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 02:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 69.0°F 63.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Albany NY 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Raleigh NC 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Bismarck ND 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Columbus OH 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 03:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 01:00 PDT Salem OR 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Providence RI 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-08-19 04:00 EDT Columbia SC 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0