Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.55 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.66 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 1.78 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 1.84 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.86 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.96 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 1.96 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.09 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.10 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.15 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.15 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.16 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.19 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.19 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.20 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.22 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.25 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.26 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.29 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.29 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.34 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.35 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.38 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.39 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.43 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.46 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.59 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.63 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.66 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.73 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.76 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.77 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.77 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.81 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.82 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.87 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.92 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.99 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.01 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 3.04 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.08 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.09 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.14 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.27 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.34 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 3.50 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.91 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 3.99 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 4.26 | 3.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 4.65 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 41.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 72.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-18 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |