Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.17 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.29 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.48 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 1.56 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.56 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 1.80 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.95 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 1.95 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 1.98 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 1.99 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.00 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.04 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.11 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.11 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.14 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.17 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.17 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.32 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.34 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.35 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.36 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.39 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.41 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.44 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.48 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.49 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.53 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.54 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.57 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.62 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.71 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 2.80 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.83 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.84 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.84 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.85 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.93 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.95 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.02 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 3.12 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.25 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 3.45 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 3.49 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.61 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 3.98 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 4.04 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 4.08 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 4.12 | 3.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 4.62 | 4.21 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 4.72 | 3.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-16 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 67.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-17 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |