Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.01 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 1.81 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 1.83 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 1.83 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 1.86 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 1.87 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 1.96 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.09 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.11 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.12 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 2.12 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.21 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.24 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.28 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.28 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.30 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 2.31 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 2.31 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.36 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.36 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.38 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.42 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.46 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.54 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.55 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.60 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.63 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.63 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.63 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.65 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.73 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.75 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.77 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.77 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.81 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.94 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 3.06 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.22 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.25 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 3.25 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.29 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.31 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 3.33 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 3.37 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.47 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 3.51 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.52 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 3.58 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 4.02 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 4.45 | 4.42 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 75.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 72.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 88.0°F | 74.0°F | +14.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 93.0°F | 82.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-08-12 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 94.0°F | 88.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |